Sensitivity Analysis of Validation Strategies for the National Solar Radiation Database
This poster provides an overview of the sensitivity analysis of validation strategies for the National Solar Radiation Database.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
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Sensitivity analysis of the effect of wind and wake characteristics on wind turbine loads in a small wind farm
Abstract. Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to determine the fatigue and ultimate loads, which are typically focused solely on unwaked wind turbine operation. These structural loads can be significantly influenced by the wind inflow conditions. Turbines experience altered inflow conditions when placed in the wake of upstream turbines, which can additionally influence the fatigue and ultimate loads. It is important to understand the impact of uncertainty on the resulting loads of both unwaked and waked turbines. The goal of this work is to assess which wind-inflow-related and wake-related parameters have the greatest influence on fatigue and ultimate loads during normal operation for turbines in a three-turbine wind farm. Twenty-eight wind inflow and wake parameters are screened using an elementary effects sensitivity analysis approach to identify the parameters that lead to the largest variation in the fatigue and ultimate loads of each turbine. This study uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine, simulated with OpenFAST and synthetically generated inflow based on the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Kaimal turbulence spectrum with the IEC exponential coherence model using the NREL tool TurbSim. The focus is on sensitivity to individual parameters, though interactions between parameters are considered, and how sensitivity differs between waked and unwaked turbines. The results of this work show that for both waked and unwaked turbines, ambient turbulence in the primary wind direction and shear are the most sensitive parameters for turbine fatigue and ultimate loads. Secondary parameters of importance for all turbines are identified as yaw misalignment, streamwise integral length, and the exponent and streamwise components of the IEC coherence model. The tertiary parameters of importance differ between waked and unwaked turbines. Tertiary effects account for up to 9.0 % of the significant events for waked turbine ultimate loads and include veer, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, air density, and several wake calibration parameters. For fatigue loads, tertiary effects account for up to 5.4 % of the significant events and include vertical turbulence standard deviation, lateral and vertical wind integral lengths, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, and all wake calibration parameters. This information shows the increased importance of non-streamwise wind components and wake parameters in the fatigue and ultimate load sensitivity of downstream turbines.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Randomized algorithms for generalized singular value decomposition with application to sensitivity analysis
The generalized singular value decomposition (GSVD) is a valuable tool that has many applications in computational science. However, computing the GSVD for large-scale problems is challenging. Motivated by applications in hyper-differential sensitivity analysis (HDSA), in this work we propose new randomized algorithms for computing the GSVD which use randomized subspace iteration and weighted QR factorization. Detailed error analysis is given which provides insight into the accuracy of the algorithms and the choice of the algorithmic parameters. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on test matrices and a large-scale model problem where HDSA is used to study subsurface flow.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Global Sensitivity Analysis Using the Ultra‐Low Resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model
Abstract For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance‐based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra‐low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher‐resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Space-Split Algorithm for Sensitivity Analysis of Discrete Chaotic Systems With Multidimensional Unstable Manifolds
Accurate approximations of the change of a system's output and its statistics with respect to the input are highly desired in computational dynamics. Ruelle's linear response theory provides breakthrough mathematical machinery for computing the linear response of chaotic dynamical systems. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for sensitivity analysis of discrete chaos with an arbitrary number of positive Lyapunov exponents. We combine the concept of perturbation space-splitting, which regularizes Ruelle's original expression, together with measure-based parameterization of the expanding subspace. We use these tools to rigorously derive trajectory-following recursive relations that converge exponentially fast, and construct a memory-efficient Monte Carlo scheme for derivatives of the output statistics. Thanks to the regularization and lack of simplifying assumptions on the system's behavior, our method is immune to the common problems of other popular methods such as the exploding tangent solutions and unphysical shadowing directions. Here, we provide a ready-to-use algorithm, analyze its complexity, and demonstrate several numerical examples of sensitivity computation using physically-inspired low-dimensional systems.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
PyApprox: A software package for sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification and surrogate modeling
PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of numerical models such as those used in the earth, environmental and engineering sciences. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent a wide range of methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of new or existing algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. Here, this paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in groundwater.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
RAVEN Sensitivity Analysis & Uncertainty Quantification_Workshop Material
This is a workshop material, introducing capabilities of RAVEN for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification.
42 - ENGINEERING↗
Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Quantitative Risk Assessments of Hydrogen Infrastructure
Typical QRAs provide deterministic estimates and understanding of risks posed but are constructed using significant assumptions and uncertainties due to limited data availability and historical momentum of using nominal estimates. This report presents a hydrogen QRA analysis using HyRAM+ that incorporates uncertainty with Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis using linear regression.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Investigating biomass composition and size effects on fast pyrolysis using global sensitivity analysis and CFD simulations
It is notoriously difficult to build an accurate universal model for biomass pyrolysis due to its sensitivity to a wide number of critical material attributes such as chemical species and physical sizes. In this work, a biomass pyrolysis kinetics with 32 heterogeneous reactions and 59 species was implemented in an open-source multiphase computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software MFiX and validated against two different experimental pyrolysis data sets that provided detailed data describing chemical component yields. The reaction scheme was then used to build a surrogate model and assess the sensitivity of pyrolysis yields to feedstock compositions. The sensitivity analysis determined that the yield of bio-char showed a strong positive sensitivity to the carbon-rich lignin and tannin pseudo-species in the reaction scheme while the bio-oil and bio-gas were correlated to oxygen-rich lignin pseudo-species. The reaction scheme was then integrated into a coarse-grained discrete element model to simulate fast pyrolysis in a bubbling fluidized bed over a range of feedstock particle sizes. The reactor simulations showed further sensitivity to particle size and hydrodynamics. Notably, particles under 0.5 mm have small heat transfer limitations but left the reactor before completely converting and thus reduced the bio-oil yield. Results from this study can be used to guide future development of highly accurate models for fast pyrolysis reactors with a variety of feedstock properties and operating conditions.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NREL Waves to Water Prize Program: Sensitivity Analysis of Alternative Markets
Isle Inc., in collaboration with Engineering for Change (project team), performed a Sensitivity Analysis of market alternatives to evaluate commercialization barriers for the Waves to Water (W2W) competitors. This analysis included interviews with organizations and end-users in three market categories (1) Disaster Relief, (2) Commercial/Industrial, and (1) Municipal, Residential, and Government. For each category, the project team selected organizations that provided a well rounded experience and set of drivers for adopting W2W technologies. In addition to the project team's efforts, fellows from NREL/DOE completed interviews with government organizations to understand their potential to engage with W2W technologies, and these findings are summarized in a separate summary document.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Sensitivity Analysis Tool for Electrochemical Conversion of CO2 to CO
Data presented in poster is sourced from the Electrochemical Catalyst Sensitivity Analysis Tool. This tool comprises a material balance model with cost estimation to estimate the levelized cost of product for CO production via CO2 electrolysis. A set of sensitivity analyses on key system and financial parameters is included with results so that users can test the impacts of these parameters on LCOP.
Henry, Samuel↗
Sensitivity Analysis of Modal Parameters of a Jacket Offshore Wind Turbine to Operational Conditions
Accurate estimation of offshore wind turbine (OWT) modal parameters has a prominent effect on the design loads, lifetime prediction, and dynamic response of the system. Modal parameters can vary during the operation of OWTs. This paper studies the variation and sensitivity analysis of an OWT’s modal parameters with respect to operational and environmental conditions. Three finite element models of a jacket-supported OWT at the Block Island Wind Farm are created within the OpenSees, SAP2000, and OpenFAST platforms and validated using experimental measurements. The OpenFAST model is used to simulate the modal parameters of the turbine under various wind speed, rotor speed, power, yaw angle, mean sea level, blade pitch angle, and soil spring values. The model-predicted modal parameters of the first fore–aft (FA) and side–side (SS) modes are compared to those identified from experimental measurements. Results from the simulations show that the first FA natural frequency and damping ratio mostly depend on the rotor speed and wind speed, respectively, while yaw angle and mean sea level do not have a visible effect. It is observed that there is about 8% stiffening in the first FA frequency and an aerodynamic damping of 7.5% during the operation of the OWT.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Parametric and Sensitivity Analysis of a Steam Generator Model Using Python and Machine-Learning Tools
For this study, we used Python and machine-learning tools to perform a comprehensive parametric and sensitivity analysis on a steam generator (SG) model. (The Python model was based on a previously completed MATLAB framework for the Holtec SMR-160 SG.) We investigated the influence of various input parameters (e.g., heat transfer coefficient [HTC], Nusselt number, and heat exchanger effectiveness) on the system’s output. With machine-learning tools such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN), which was developed at Idaho National Laboratory, we were then able to perform an automated analysis of the SG inputs’ effect on the HTC. The analysis results give valuable insights into the performance and optimization of SG systems. We found the inlet mass flow rate (MFR) to have the greatest impact on the HTC, followed closely by the inlet temperature, and then pressure. Shifting of the input parameters causes the location of the maximum HTC along the SG length to change incrementally. The cold leg (CL) MFR was also found to impact the HTC magnitude as well as the location of the maximum HTC. At between 0.4–0.9 of the total SG length, the input parameters experience maximum impact on the HTC, leading us to suggest that sensors be efficiently placed on the SG so as to closely and effectively monitor thermal-hydraulic properties during reactor operation. We also found that the sensitivity data calculated manually agrees with the RAVEN – based data, confirming the same range of maximum sensitivity. However, the RAVEN-based analysis showed that cold leg pressure and hot leg temperature have a greater impact on the heat transfer coefficient than the mass flow rate, implying that a manual sensitivity study taking only two samples is not accurate.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
SAGE Intrusion Detection System: Sensitivity Analysis Guided Explainability for Machine Learning.
This report details the results of a three-fold investigation of sensitivity analysis (SA) for machine learning (ML) explainability (MLE): (1) the mathematical assessment of the fidelity of an explanation with respect to a learned ML model, (2) quantifying the trustworthiness of a prediction, and (3) the impact of MLE on the efficiency of end-users through multiple users studies. We focused on the cybersecurity domain as the data is inherently non-intuitive. As ML is being using in an increasing number of domains, including domains where being wrong can elicit high consequences, MLE has been proposed as a means of generating trust in a learned ML models by end users. However, little analysis has been performed to determine if the explanations accurately represent the target model and they themselves should be trusted beyond subjective inspection. Current state-of-the-art MLE techniques only provide a list of important features based on heuristic measures and/or make certain assumptions about the data and the model which are not representative of the real-world data and models. Further, most are designed without considering the usefulness by an end-user in a broader context. To address these issues, we present a notion of explanation fidelity based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory. We find that all of the investigated MLE explainability methods produce explanations that are incongruent with the ML model that is being explained. This is because they make critical assumptions about feature independence and linear feature interactions for computational reasons. We also find that in deployed, explanations are rarely used due to a variety of reason including that there are several other tools which are trusted more than the explanations and there is little incentive to use the explanations. In the cases when the explanations are used, we found that there is the danger that explanations persuade the end users to wrongly accept false positives and false negatives. However, ML model developers and maintainers find the explanations more useful to help ensure that the ML model does not have obvious biases. In light of these findings, we suggest a number of future directions including developing MLE methods that directly model non-linear model interactions and including design principles that take into account the usefulness of explanations to the end user. We also augment explanations with a set of trustworthiness measures that measure geometric aspects of the data to determine if the model output should be trusted.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Sensitivity analysis for characterizing the impact of HNGD model on the prediction of hydrogen redistribution in Zircaloy cladding using BISON code
Hydrogen in zirconium cladding is able to precipitate into zirconium hydrides which impacts cladding integrity. The Hydride Nucleation-Growth-Dissolution (HNGD) model in the BISON code accounts for the precipitation and dissolution kinetics of hydride in Zircaloy material. This paper presents global sensitivity analyses of the HNGD model aiming to enhance our understanding of the hydride precipitation phenomena by quantifying the variance that key parameters have on the prediction of hydrogen behavior under various environmental conditions. Here, model predictions are compared to experimental data obtained under two different conditions: 1) with uniformly precharged specimens subjected to a linear thermal gradient, and 2) specimens precharged with a cathodically applied hydride rim at one end of the sample and subjected to an asymmetric thermal gradient. The Sobol sensitivity analysis identifies the key parameters in the HNGD model for both types of specimens. For linear temperature cases, the heat of transport dominates the accuracy of predictions when no precipitation occurs at the cold end, while Terminal Solid Solubility for Dissolution (TSSD) is the most important parameter when precipitation occurs. A large variation in the predicted hydrogen concentration profiles is found in the range of high TSSD due to the occurrence of precipitation. For asymmetric temperature cases, the solubility coefficient gives the largest impact on the predicted hydrogen distribution, as it determines the amount of solute hydrogen dissolved from the initially applied hydride rim. A large discrepancy in hydrogen distribution between simulations and experiments exists with the asymmetric specimens because BISON simulations fail to predict the precipitation of hydride at the cooler end. Comparative studies using former and updated models verifies the significant impact of the hydride growth mechanism on predicted hydrogen concentration profiles. In particular, when hydride initially exists, changes in TSSD generate a large variation in the predicted amount of precipitation by hydride growth, giving large uncertainty in predicting the hydrogen distribution over the sample length. The outputs characterize the significant impact of the hydride growth mechanism in the HNGD model on predicting hydrogen behavior, and improve the understanding of the precipitation of hydride in Zircaloy cladding within a range of expected environmental conditions. The analyses indicate work is still needed to improve the hydride solvus models in the BISON code to accurately predict experimentally observed hydride concentrations and distributions.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Industrial PLC Network Modeling and Parameter Identification Using Sensitivity Analysis and Mean Field Variational Inference
A multiple input multiple output (MIMO) power line communication (PLC) model for industrial facilities was developed that uses the physics of a bottom-up model but can be calibrated like top-down models. The PLC model considers 4-conductor cables (three-phase conductors and a ground conductor) and has several load types, including motor loads. The model is calibrated to data using mean field variational inference with a sensitivity analysis to reduce the parameter space. The results show that the inference method can accurately identify many of the model parameters, and the model is accurate even when the network is modified.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Efficient sensitivity analysis of the thermal profile in powder bed fusion of metals using hypercomplex automatic differentiation finite element method
Rapid cyclic temperature fluctuation occurring in powder bed fusion of metals using a laser beam (PBF-LB/M) influences the formation of flaws in printed parts. Consequently, there is a pressing need to enhance the quality of printed parts by developing innovative methodologies that can predict thermal histories and help uncover the intricate relationships between process parameters and thermal profiles. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) emerges as an essential tool for this, offering the potential for process optimization and enhanced quality control. Nonetheless, conventional SA methodologies often incur in excessive computational costs and potential numerical approximation errors. Here, to address this technical challenge, we present a novel method for SA that integrates the HYPercomplex-based Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) technique with transient thermal simulations conducted via the finite element method (FEM). Leveraging this methodology, we efficiently and accurately perform SA for PBF-LB/M processes in a post-processing step. Compared to traditional methods like Finite Differences (FD), HYPAD-FEM required 96 % less computational time for obtaining sensitivities for 22 process parameters, under a comparative study conducted within the context of the 2018–02 AM benchmark of the National Institute of Standards and Technology. In summary, HYPAD-FEM offers superior efficiency and accuracy in SA over conventional methods, delivering the best sensitivity of a model without the need for step-size selection and problem or parameter-based implementations.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Machine Learning Driven Sensitivity Analysis of E3SM Land Model Parameters for Wetland Methane Emissions
Methane (CH 4 ) is globally the second most critical greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing to 16%–25% of the observed atmospheric warming. Wetlands are the primary natural source of methane emissions globally. However, wetland methane emission estimates from biogeochemistry models contain considerable uncertainty. One of the main sources of this uncertainty arises from the numerous uncertain model parameters within various physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence methane production, oxidation, and transport. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can help identify critical parameters for methane emission and achieve reduced biases and uncertainties in future projections. This study performs SA for 19 selected parameters responsible for critical biogeochemical processes in the methane module of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). The impact of these parameters on various CH 4 fluxes is examined at 14 FLUXNET- CH 4 sites with diverse vegetation types. Given the extensive number of model simulations needed for global variance-based SA, we employ a machine learning (ML) algorithm to emulate the complex behavior of ELM methane biogeochemistry. We found that parameters linked to CH 4 production and diffusion generally present the highest sensitivities despite apparent seasonal variation. Comparing simulated emissions from perturbed parameter sets against FLUXNET-CH 4 observations revealed that better performances can be achieved at each site compared to the default parameter values. This presents a scope for further improving simulated emissions using parameter calibration with advanced optimization techniques.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗