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DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Dynamic Digital Twin for Test Scenario Generation

Vehicle testing has been an important part in the development of both highly automated vehicles (HAV) and advanced driving assistant systems (ADAS). Obtaining a good representation of the Vehicle Under Test (VUT) is crucial for test scenario library generation (TSLG). Current vehicle testing methods often involve calibrating car-following models using vehicle trajectory data to create static representations that cannot be dynamically updated. For instance, when multiple vehicle trajectories are collected, it is difficult to automatically determine whether a new trajectory improves the model's representativeness or degrades its accuracy. In this paper, we introduce a dynamically updated digital twin modeling framework featuring an adaptive mechanism that evaluates new trajectory data. This mechanism can decide whether to incorporate newly collected data into the current model or create a separate digital twin model when the trajectory significantly differs from prior data. Vehicle location, speed, and acceleration extracted from the newly collected trajectory data are used to support the dynamic update decision. By integrating this digital twin model into the test library generation process, we demonstrate its ability to assist in generating test libraries while effectively handling newly collected data.

Chen, Hanlin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000165087715)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intermediate Scale Test Platform Conceptual Design and Hybrid Resin Performance Evaluation Recommendations

Recent laboratory evaluations demonstrated that further testing of alternative hybrid resins is warranted for their potential use as part of the 200 West Area (200W) pump-and-treat (P&T) remedy. 200W P&T has been treating technetium (Tc) since 2012 and uranium (U) since 2015 via two separate ion exchange (IX) treatment units: a single treatment train (i.e., a three-vessel system) for the removal of uranium utilizing a gel strong base anion (SBA) exchange resin, Dowex 21K; and two parallel treatment trains for the removal technetium using a gel SBA resin, Purolite® A532E. While these resins have been removing these contaminants effectively, new hybrid resins can provide additional benefits of further optimizing the IX treatment unit capacities and addressing additional treatment needs (e.g., Cr(VI)) by removing multiple contaminants simultaneously and/or through specific design configurations. Some of these resins also demonstrated some level of removal for I-129 which would be significant for expansion of the P&T into the 200 East Area. This document provides design recommendations for an intermediate scale test platform (ISTP) to evaluate alternative hybrid IX resin performance under conditions approaching field scale and using 200W P&T process groundwater. Results from the ISTP will provide the technical basis required to inform alternative IX resin selection in future 200W P&T facility operations where the treatment of multiple contaminants of concern may be required.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of radiated-power for low aspect ratio fusion plasmas

Investigating radiated power in fusion plasmas is of utmost importance to understand the effect of undesired impurities, such as metals, in present devices, or also desired impurities, such as noble gasses, to purposefully radiate a large fraction of power in future devices. These studies are especially important for high Z impurities which will play a crucial role in future generation fusion pilot plants. In this work, we have developed a power radiation analysis module, which is used to investigate 2D distributions of impurity densities and radiated power asymmetries caused due to both plasma rotation and the cooling rate dependence on temperature profile for the cases of experimental NSTX plasmas and designed scenarios for the spherical tokamak advanced reactor (STAR), both being low aspect ratio tokamaks. Two different atomic databases have been tested during this work to study their impact on the radiated power distribution, especially for high Z impurities. Also in PRAM, self-consistent calculations of two-dimensional electron, main ion, and impurity ion densities are carried out using one-dimensional input density, temperature, and rotation profiles. In the case of NSTX, discharges with high rotation of ∼ 170 km s, measured with charge exchange recombination spectroscopy, have been investigated. Rotation-induced charge separation, leading to an electrostatic potential, is calculated iteratively to a self-consistent solution while testing high Z impurities to observe any 2D asymmetry in the core radiated power due to centrifugal forces. The STAR design, being much larger (R = 4 m), is projected to have a much lower rotation, and is shown to have low rotation-induced asymmetries, on the order of ten percent or less, between the low field and high field sides. However, another effect not due to rotation but to the dependence of impurity cooling rates on temperature can lead to radiation peaking off-axis, near the plasma edge. This effect is noticeable for argon in NSTX, for example, but can also be enhanced for certain impurities at much higher temperatures projected for STAR (T e0 ~ 32 keV), for example for undesired tungsten or possibly desired xenon.

NSTX↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological parameter estimation with a joint-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis

Here, we present a joint-likelihood analysis of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, consistently combining likelihoods and taking into account uncertainties in nuclear reaction rates for the first time. Bayesian inference is performed on the baryon abundance and the effective number of neutrino species, 𝑁 eff , using a CMB Boltzmann solver in combination with LINX , a new flexible and efficient BBN code. We marginalize over Planck nuisance parameters and nuclear rates to find 𝑁 eff =3.0⁢8$^{+0.15}_{−0.14}$, 2.9⁢4$^{+0.16}_{−0.15}$, or 2.96$^{+0.13}_{−0.14}$, for three separate reaction networks. This framework enables robust testing of the lambda cold dark matter paradigm and its variants with CMB and BBN data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Utilization of traceable standards to validate plutonium isotopic purification and separation of plutonium progeny using AG MP-1M resin for nuclear forensic investigations

Radio-chronometric studies on plutonium (Pu) materials require independent measurement of the Pu (parent) content and isotopic distribution as well as concentration and isotopic distribution of the plutonium isotopic decay products. We performed a series of experiments to demonstrate the consistency of separations using the Lewatit MP 800 macroporous anion exchange resin and the AG MP-1M resin with traceable Pu isotopic certified reference material (CRM) standards 136, 137, 138, and 126-A. Two different mesh-sizes of the AG MP-1M resin were tested and the 50–100 mesh size resin was found to work more efficiently for the separation task. Both Lewatit and AG MP-1M resins were found to perform satisfactorily for quantitatively extracting the americium (Am) and uranium (U) progeny as well as gallium (Ga) present as a tracer in the Pu material. Both resins were effective in removing isobaric interferences from the Pu fraction used in isotopic measurements by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS). To address the co-elution of uranium and gallium, Alizarin red S (ARS) was used as a colorimetric dye to determine the behavior of UO 2 2+ and Ga 3+ on AG MP-1M resin with various acidic solutions as eluents using UV–vis spectra. Poor resolution of these peaks complicated quantitative analysis by UV–vis spectroscopy, but these results were informative in planning automated separation experiments by HPLC. LA-UR-24-28919.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2024

Novel Full-Ceramic Multi-Tubular Membrane Systems for Pre-Combustion CO2 Capture with Simultaneous H2 Production: Fabrication, Performance Testing, and 3D CFD Modeling

Inorganic membranes show promise for application in pre-combustion CO2 capture with simultaneous H2 production. State-of-the-art systems for use under high temperature and pressure conditions consist of multiple membrane tube bundles prepared in a "candle-filter" configuration, in which the membrane tubes are open at one end and sealed at the other. This configuration is used for practical reasons, specifically the need to minimize potential problems due to thermal expansion mismatch, at high temperatures, between the ceramic tube bundle and the steel housing. The primary technical problem with the candle-filter configuration for use in commercial-scale installations is the inability to purge the permeate side (typically the tube side), a feature that is crucial for high H2 recovery. In this study, we fabricated dual-end open, commercial-size ceramic multiple-tube bundles made of zeolite, palladium (Pd), and carbon molecular sieve (CMS) membranes that enable permeate-side (tube-side) purge for gas separation applications. Experimental gas separation data with these membrane bundles under harsh operating conditions (temperatures up to 350 and pressures up to 800 psig), to be presented at the meeting, manifest excellent performance. Parallel to the membrane bundle construction and testing efforts, we have also developed a detailed 3D CFD modeling package using COMSOL Multiphysics software to gain more insight into the effect on the H2 purity and recovery of the detailed geometry of the multi-tubular membrane system, including the number of tubes used, their dimensions, and placement in the bundle, as well as the number, type, and positioning of internal baffles and other flow-enhancement accessories. The CFD package is validated with experimental data from different systems (1-tube, 3-tube, and 19-tube bundles), and shows high accuracy in predicting the experimental results (<5 % error in all cases). The results of our study show that the detailed internal geometry of these multi-tubular membrane systems has a considerable impact on the performance of the system as the flow maldistribution within the shell-side can substantially decrease (>40%) the H2 recovery.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

3D Printing of Functional Hydrogel Devices for Screenings of Membrane Permeability and Selectivity

Developing a fundamental understanding of the effects of varying ligand chemistries on mass transport rates is key to designing membranes with solute-specific selectivity. While permeation cells offer a robust method to characterize membrane performance, they are limited to assessing a single membrane chemistry or salt solution per test. As a result, investigating the effects of varying ligand chemistries on membrane performance can be a tedious process, involving both the preparation of multiple samples and numerous, time-consuming permeation tests. This study uses digital light processing (DLP) 3D printing to fabricate a millifluidic flow-based permeation device made from a hydrogel active ester network that can be easily functionalized with ion-selective ligands. Without the need for bonding or assembly steps, ligands can be introduced and tested in the permeation device by simply injecting a small volume of a ligand solution. Various salt concentrations and molecular species can be cycled through a single device by switching the solution feeding into the salt reservoir, thereby reducing the number of samples needed for permeability and selectivity screenings. This research sets the groundwork for formulation development and postprocessing methods to 3D-print functional millifluidic devices capable of assessing solute selectivity in membranes and polymer adsorbents for aqueous separations. In this work, comparable salt permeability trends were observed with both 3D-printed devices and traditional assays. Devices were functionalized with an imidazole ligand to investigate salt permeability and selectivity of monovalent and divalent salts. Measurements showed increasing permeability for monovalent salts (NaCl) relative to divalent salts (MgCl 2 , CuCl 2 ) in functionalized membranes, with higher monovalent/divalent selectivity at increasing imidazole grafting densities. Here, the methods and findings described here represent a step toward developing higher-throughput methods with 3D-printed devices for screening the effects of ligand chemistry on mass transport rates in membrane materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Holistic Microstructure Control Strategies in Photopolymerization‐Induced Phase Separation of Acrylate Systems

Open porous materials, known for their large surface area and interconnected structures, are essential in various applications, including batteries, ion exchange, catalysis, filtration, and electronic waste recycling. A critical aspect of the functionality of porous membranes is the precise control of pore size and morphology. Photopolymerization-induced phase separation (photo-PIPS) offers a convenient and versatile methods for creating porous structures. However, controlling the porous morphology remains challenging due to the complex interplay between thermodynamics, polymerization kinetics, and monomer structures, which makes it difficult to establish the relationship between processing conditions and resulting morphology in photo-PIPS. Herein, a physics-based phase-field model capable of generating and characterizing the microstructures of porous materials based on both average and localized features is developed. Using the phase-field simulations as test bed, the effects of polarity, light intensity, and curing temperature, as well as the previously unexplored roles of chain transfer agents and substrates, on the morphology of the resulting porous microstructure are investigated. Experiments are performed to verify the results predicted by the simulations. This work lays out a comprehensive guide for designing PIPS-derived porous microstructures and offers practical engineering strategies for tailoring microstructure-level topology and size of pores for application-specific needs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Linking DSC/TGA to Cell Levels: Energetics, Evolved Gases, and Thermal Safety of NMC811‐Graphite Micro‐Cell

Thermochemical characterization of battery materials links intrinsic material properties to decomposition pathways, heat generation, and gas evolution that govern performance and safety. Despite extensive work on NMC811-Graphite, variability across partial configurations and the limited adoption of micro-cell architectures (cathode+anode+electrolyte+separator) hinder robust cell-scale interpretation. Accordingly, this work establishes a bottom-up, component-resolved methodology integrating DSC/TGA, evolved gas analysis (EGA), and in situ XRD to link decomposition pathways and energy release across partial and micro-cell configurations, providing a transferable assessment of safety and stability in emerging chemistries. In separator-free configurations, the gas–solid reaction between cathode-evolved O 2 and anode-leached Li dominates the net heat release (1139 J g −1 ). In contrast, in the micro-cell configuration, the separator hinders O 2 transport and alters the timing and pathways of other reactions, and reduces the net energy release to 618 J g −1 . Energy release was organized into defined temperature windows that provide a framework for a thermodynamic model combining quantified gas evolution with selected decomposition pathways and effective reaction enthalpies to estimate net specific energy release, with agreement between DSC and cell-level tests. Ex situ XPS of heat-treated samples extends post-mortem analysis to thermal-abuse regimes, supporting key pathway elements.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

RuKY Catalyst‐Packed Permeation Membrane for Quantitative Ammonia and d3‐Ammonia Dehydrogenation to Ultrapure Hydrogen

Ammonia is a promising carbon-free hydrogen carrier, but incomplete ammonia dehydrogenation (cracking) generates atmospheric emissions of NO x , a potent greenhouse gas. Additionally, incomplete cracking of ammonia leads to regulatory challenges in nuclear and fusion power, where tritiated ammonia (NT 3 ) emissions are strictly controlled. Therefore, we report the use of low-temperature ammonia dehydrogenation catalysts (3%Ru/1%Y/12%K/Al 2 O 3 ) in a palladium alloy H 2 permeation membrane for quantitative conversion of ammonia into hydrogen and nitrogen at industry-relevant conditions. This catalytic membrane reactor system achieved an astonishing effluent concentration of <1 ppm at 450°C under a 100% NH 3 stream, which is far beyond the 99.6% conversion target required for the adoption of ammonia as a vehicle fuel. The low-temperature ammonia dehydrogenation catalyst was tested in a packed bed reactor with NH 3 and ND 3 to both elucidate the reaction mechanism and to quantify the kinetic isotope effect of the membrane reactor. The rate-limiting step at temperatures relevant to the palladium membrane are isotope independent, indicating that the isotopologue content will not modify the desired reaction kinetics. By reducing emissions to below-trace levels with no additional separation, this work provides a path to greatly simplified and miniaturized ammonia cracking processes.

ammonia decomposition↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA)/Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) for Marine Energy (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The objective of the Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA) project was to reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) energy by leveraging research, development, and testing capabilities at Oregon State University, University of Washington, and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. ALFA is a project within the Pacific Marine Energy Center (PMEC; formerly NNMREC), a multi-institution entity with a diverse funding base that focuses on research and development for marine renewables. The ALFA project aimed to accelerate the development of next-generation arrays of wave energy conversion (WEC) and tidal energy conversion (TEC) devices through a suite of field-focused R&D activities spanning a broad range of strategic opportunity areas identified in the Funding Opportunity Announcement: • Device and/or array operation and maintenance (O&M) logistics development; • High-fidelity resource characterization and/or modeling technique development and validation; • Array-specific component technology development (e.g. moorings and foundations, transmission, and other offshore grid components); • Array performance testing and evaluation; and • Novel cost-effective environmental monitoring techniques and instrumentation testing and evaluation. The objective of the Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) was to accelerate the development of next-generation marine energy conversion systems. The LCP aimed to achieve these project objectives in collaboration with the national laboratories by: • Developing concept generation and assessment tools; • Improving access to existing testing resources; • Validating collision risk models between fish and turbines; and • Advancing analysis and simulation capabilities for wave-WEC interactions and PTO analysis in nonlinear ocean waves. The ALFA portion of the project was comprised of six overarching technical tasks: • Task 1: Debris Modeling, Detection and Mitigation; • Task 2: Autonomous Monitoring & Intervention; • Task 3: Resource Characterization for Extreme Conditions; • Task 4: Robust Models for Design of Offshore Anchoring and Mooring Systems; • Task 5: Performance Enhancement for Marine Energy Converter (MEC) Arrays; and • Task 6: Evaluating Sampling Techniques for MHK Biological Monitoring. The LCP was divided into four overarching technical tasks: • Task 7: Project Management and Reporting • Task 8: Novel Design and Assessment Methodologies for Wave Energy Converter Design (Wave- SPARC) • Task 9: Testing Access for Commercial Marine Renewable Energy Technology Developers • Task 10: Quantifying Collision Risk for Fish and Turbines • Task 11: Nonlinear Ocean Waves and PTO Control Strategy Each ALFA/LCP task listed above functioned as a separate and discreet project. A final Technical Report was written for each individual task and these reports were uploaded to OSTI, after receiving DOE approval. The following document is a compilation of each of these final, approved reports arranged as individual chapters.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Introducing the DREAMS Project: DaRk mattEr and Astrophysics with Machine Learning and Simulations

We introduce the DaRk mattEr and Astrophysics with Machine learning and Simulations (DREAMS) project, an innovative approach to understanding the astrophysical implications of alternative dark matter (DM) models and their effects on galaxy formation and evolution. The DREAMS project will ultimately comprise thousands of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations that simultaneously vary over DM physics, astrophysics, and cosmology in modeling a range of systems—from galaxy clusters to ultra-faint satellites. Such extensive simulation suites can provide adequate training sets for machine-learning-based analyses. This paper introduces two new cosmological hydrodynamical suites of warm dark matter (WDM), each comprising 1024 simulations generated using the arepo code. One suite consists of uniform-box simulations covering a ${(25\,{h}^{-1}\,{\rm{Mpc}})}^{3}$ volume, while the other consists of Milky Way zoom-ins with sufficient resolution to capture the properties of classical satellites. For each simulation, the WDM particle mass is varied along with the initial density field and several parameters controlling the strength of baryonic feedback within the IllustrisTNG model. We provide two examples, separately utilizing emulators and convolutional neural networks, to demonstrate how such simulation suites can be used to disentangle the effects of DM and baryonic physics on galactic properties. The DREAMS project can be extended further to include different DM models, galaxy formation physics, and astrophysical targets. In this way, it will provide an unparalleled opportunity to characterize uncertainties on predictions for small-scale observables, leading to robust predictions for testing the particle physics nature of DM on these scales.

cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stable yet hydrophilic graphene oxide nanomembranes by zwitterionic reduction for dye desalination

Holey graphene oxide (HGO) nanosheets have emerged as a promising membrane platform for dye desalination, and they must be reduced to enhance hydrophobicity and stability for long-term underwater operation, which usually decreases water and salt permeance. Herein, we develop a facile method to stabilize HGO nanosheets while retaining their hydrophilicity by reducing them with sulfobetaine amine (SBAm, a superhydrophilic zwitterion), achieving high water and salt permeance and a high salt/dye separation factor. Specifically, HGO nanosheets react with SBAm via an amine-epoxide reaction, rendering reduced HGO nanosheets containing superhydrophilic zwitterions. The effects of in-plane pores, zwitterion content, and layer thickness on the membrane chemistry, structure, and salt/dye separation properties of the SBAm-reduced HGOs (SHGOs) are thoroughly examined. The membrane achieves a Na 2 SO 4 /Direct red separation factor of up to 850, surpassing the state-of-the-art GO membranes. Moreover, hollow fiber membrane modules based on SHGOs are fabricated and exhibit stable performance in multi-cycle tests over 100 h of operation with mixed dye-salt solutions, demonstrating the scalability of our approach and its potential for practical applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Elucidating the impact of stress states on grain boundary passivation in Ni-5Cr using the Rhines pack method

The oxidation behavior of a Ni–5Cr (at.%) alloy was evaluated at 420 ° C using the Rhines pack method and simultaneous tensile and compressive stress states via a miniature four-point bending fixture. At this moderate temperature, grain boundaries dominate mass transport and the resulting oxidation response. Oxidation produced approximately 1μ⁢m-wide protective Cr 2 O 3 films capping some grain boundaries and penetrative, intergranular Cr-rich oxides at other grain boundaries. Externally applied tensile and compressive stress during oxidation increased the prevalence of Cr 2 O 3 cap formation compared to no applied stress, with tensile stress resulting in more Cr 2 O 3 caps than compressive stress. The observed oxide cap morphology was similar across all test conditions. Regions under compressive stress showed an order of magnitude greater Cr depletion depth along the grain boundary. Chromium nitrides (CrN), likely from N contamination of the Rhines pack cell, were observed both at the oxide–metal interface and intergranularly within the alloy. Collectively these results demonstrate that applied stress promotes localized protective oxide cap formation over grain boundaries, with compressive stress additionally promoting deeper Cr depletion. Furthermore the experimental approach helped separate out the effects of stress on local oxide formation and grain boundary passivation.

4 point bend↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Strain and Strain Rate on Dynamic Grain Growth and Subgrain Evolution During Plastic Deformation of an Interstitial-Free Steel at 850 ° C

Here, the effects of strain and strain rate on dynamic grain growth (DGG) and subgrain evolution are reported for an interstitial-free steel deformed at 850 ° C. Microstructures produced during tension tests at true-strain rates of 10 -4 and to 10 -3 s -1 true strains ranging from 0.02 to 0.2 were preserved following deformation. These were characterized using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), including the application of spherical harmonic transform indexing to produce high-angular-resolution EBSD (HR-EBSD) data. HR-EBSD data resolved the small misorientation angles of subgrain boundaries while imaging much larger data fields than possible with previously available techniques. The resulting data confirmed that steady-state flow stress is inversely proportional to the average subgrain size and that subgrain boundary misorientation angle increases with strain. The following new observations are reported. The rate of DGG increased with respect to time but decreased with respect to strain as strain rate increased. This behavior is rationalized through a simple model using separate rate parameters for the effects of time and strain. Subgrain size was not constant during steady-state deformation, but decreased slowly with increasing strain. Subgrain size distributions and subgrain boundary misorientation angle distributions were measured, and both remained approximately log-normal during steady-state deformation. Subgrain evolution demonstrated no dependence on parent grain size, crystallographic orientation, or Taylor factor. These new data suggest that steady-state flow stress is more likely controlled by the dislocation density internal to subgrains than by the spacing between subgrain boundaries.

dynamic grain growth↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Surrogate Modeling with Microstructure-Sensitivity of Viscoplastic Creep in Grade 91 Steel

Abstract To support the development of advanced steel alloys tailored to withstand extreme conditions, it is imperative to account for the mechanical performance of components, while considering the influence of local microstructure on the macroscopic response. To this end, this study focuses on the development of microstructure-sensitive constitutive models for the mechanical response of Grade 91 steel exposed to extreme thermo-mechanical environments. Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates are used to emulate high-fidelity polycrystal simulations of the viscoplastic response of Grade 91 steel as a function of the microstructure fingerprint (e.g., dislocations and precipitates). To cover a wide temperature–stress domain, two separate PCE surrogates—one that captures softening and the other that captures hardening behavior—are combined using another (sparse) Gaussian process regression model. The resulting constitutive creep surrogate model is integrated within the MOOSE finite element framework to simulate the intricate effects of microstructure, in particular MX-phase precipitates, on a component with a graded microstructure. Surrogate sensitivity analysis is applied to quantify the relevant impact of spatially varying microstructure on the creep response in a test-case involving a Grade 91 alloy with a prototypical weld.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bridging Hydrological Ensemble Simulation and Learning Using Deep Neural Operators

Ensemble-based simulation and learning (ESnL) has long been used in hydrology for parameter inference, but computational demands of process-based ESnL can be quite high. To address this issue, we propose a deep neural operator learning approach. Neural operators are generic machine learning algorithms that can learn functional mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, providing a highly flexible tool for scientific machine learning. Our approach is built upon DeepONet, a specific deep neural operator, and is designed to address several common problems in hydrology, namely, model parameter estimation, prediction at ungaged locations, and uncertainty quantification. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of our DeepONet-based workflow using an existing large model ensemble created for an eastern U.S. watershed that is instrumented with 10 streamflow gages. Results suggest DeepONet achieves high efficiency in learning an ML surrogate model from the model ensemble, with the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency exceeding 0.9 on holdout test sets. Parameter inference, carried out using the trained DeepONet surrogate model and genetic algorithm, also yields robust results. Additionally, we formulate and train a separate DeepONet model for physics-informed, seq-to-seq streamflow forecasting, which further reduces biases in the pre-trained DeepONet surrogate model. While this study focuses primarily on a single watershed, our approach is general and may be extended to enable learning from model ensembles across multiple basins or models. Thus, this research represents a significant contribution to the application of hybrid machine learning in hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗