Results for “Sex Characteristics” — Page 5

DOE OSTI2021

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

One-Carbon Metabolism and SANS 2022 Update

Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome, or SANS, affects a subset of astronauts (1, 2), and biochemical evidence has documented differences in those astronauts (3). Specifically, they had higher circulating concentrations of metabolites of the one-carbon metabolic pathway (1C), including homocysteine, and these concentrations were higher before flight (3). After ruling out many potential confounding factors in these otherwise healthy individuals (e.g., sex, kidney function, vitamin status, coffee consumption), a study of genetics was warranted. In an initial pilot effort, we documented a genetic predisposition to develop ophthalmic changes after long-duration space flight (4). That is, from a limited study of 5 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we found that the G allele for the MTRR A66G SNP was associated with a greater risk of choroidal folds and cotton-wool spots after flight, and the C allele for SHMT1 C1420T was protective against optic disc edema (4). These data provide a potential pathway for understanding why some individuals develop SANS, while others do not. The initial pilot study of 5 SNPs yielded striking findings, but the 1C pathway is far more complex. An effort was undertaken to examine more than 500 1C SNPs to see if a broader examination could help illuminate this association. That work is ongoing. The astronaut findings led us to advocate for the inclusion of 1C pathway genetic and biochemistry testing on other SANS-related projects, noting that genetics might help identify responders, non-responders, or outliers. The first such effort yielded evidence of an association of specific forms of the MTRR and SHMT-1 SNPs and vitamin B12 status with end-tidal CO2 after acute carbon dioxide exposure (5). The second such effort led to the identification that individuals exposed to strict head-down tilt and CO2 for 30-d who developed optic disc edema also had risk alleles for the two SNPs described above (6). Additionally, we identified a clinical population with many characteristics either attributed or purported to be involved in the ocular changes seen in affected astronauts: women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). PCOS is a condition of androgen excess and anovulatory menstrual cycles. The shared characteristics and clinical findings between SANS and PCOS generally include higher circulating homocysteine concentrations, increased retinal nerve fiber layer thickness, increased androgen concentrations (or responses), and altered carbohydrate metabolism. To our knowledge, no study has examined whether women with PCOS have asymptomatic ophthalmic anomalies observed in astronauts with SANS. While researchers have evaluated the one-carbon metabolism pathway polymorphisms of PCOS patients, and initial studies show an association with certain one-carbon polymorphisms, none have looked at the set of SNPs identified in our studies that are associated with ophthalmic changes in astronauts. Accordingly, we designed a study to evaluate the association of one-carbon pathway SNPs and ophthalmic findings in patients with PCOS and/or IIH compared to controls. Subjects provided blood samples for vitamin and one carbon biochemistry analyses, an extensive analysis of >500 SNPs associated with one carbon metabolism and had eye examinations and ocular imaging. Data analysis are underway. The data collected to date have shown associations between one carbon pathway biochemistry and genetics and incidence of SANS. The mechanisms for SANS has yet to be identified, although many hypotheses exist. Based on our data, we have developed (8, 9) and expanded (6) a multi-hit hypothesis for how these seemingly disparate findings could be linked. While intriguing, the hypothesis represents the starting point for further research. We aim to clarify the relationship between B-vitamin status and genetics with regard to the risk of SANS. Ultimately, understanding the mechanism(s) behind this will provide a means to predict, prevent, or treat these ophthalmologic pathologies in astronauts, and terrestrial populations.

S M Smith↗