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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Inference and the Effects of Varying Uncertainty Models in Charring Ablator Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Problems

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) vehicle utilized a heat shield constructed from NASA’s Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material to protect the main structure from the high enthalpy environment encountered during hypersonic atmospheric entry. During the vehicle’s descent through Martian atmosphere, multiple thermocouples embedded within the heat shield captured in-depth material temperature data that allow for studies to be conducted on current material response reconstruction tools. In the present work, material temperature data obtained from thermocouples within the MISP-4 plug (MEDLI (Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument) Integrated Sensor Plug) are utilized in the calibration of Theoretical Ablative Composite for Open Testing (TACOT) model parameters in conjunction with NASA’s Porous material Analysis Toolbox (PATO) through Bayesian inference where uncertainty due to parametric, modeling, and experimental sources is simultaneously quantified. Prior to the study, a sensitivity analysis is performed through computation of the robust Sobol indices in an effort to study the relationship between input space and model response and to reduce the dimensionality of the statistical inverse problem. The Bayesian inference methodology necessitates an a-priori choice to be made for the uncertainty model for which numerous possibilities are available. Across most works, however, only basic additive or multiplicative models are utilized with pre-defined magnitudes of uncertainty based on a-priori knowledge or to-be-calibrated multipliers of static covariance matrix structures. The present effort explores the effects of informed uncertainty models, ones with temporal dependence that are simultaneously calibrated through Bayesian inference, on calibrated results for parameters that make up the uncertain input space.

Sensitivity Analysis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. An inverse estimation of the backshell and heatshield surface aeroheating was performed, using the data from the MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs, a network of thermocouples embedded within the thermal protection system across the aeroshell. Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the surface heat rate, temperature, and heat load to uncertainties in thermocouple depth and material properties. In this paper, a variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to understand the relative contributions of each uncertainty parameter. Performing this analysis using results from the inverse analysis tool FIAT_Opt was found to require incredibly high computation time, and thus machine learning models were trained and evaluated as a surrogate model for FIAT_Opt. This paper demonstrates that machine learning models can be an efficient, accurate alternative to state-of-the-art inverse analysis tools like FIAT_Opt, especially for computationally-expensive processes. Using these models, the sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in heat capacity and thermal conductivity were the main drivers for the overall uncertainty in peak reconstructed heating and heat load.

H S Alpert↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Efficient Parametric Uncertainty Analysis of an Earth Entry Vehicle Concept Using Least Angle Regression

The objective of this work was to outline and apply an efficient and accurate parametric un-certainty propagation approach to the analysis of convective heating on an Earth entry vehicle concept. The described approach was based on Least Angle Regression used to solve a sparse and underdetermined linear system in the point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos surrogate method. This approach involved an iterative process to computing the non-zero terms of the underlying polynomial chaos model using only enough samples to converge uncertainty interval predictions and Sobol index values based global nonlinear sensitivity estimates. The Earth entry vehicle was analyzed at three points along a representative trajectory for a Mars return mission. 329 sources of uncertainty were identified in the computational fluid dynamics model used to predict the forebody convective heating. These included uncertainty in flow field chemical rates, collision integrals, heats of formation, surface finite rate char model reaction rates, wall roughness height, and the turbulent Schmidt number. Results from this study showed that convective heating uncertainty as high as 50% of the nominal was predicted with only about 50 evaluations of the computational model. This was far fewer than would be required for a sampling-based approach or a full basis polynomial chaos model, which would have required over 50,000 samples. Additionally, results showed that over 90% of the total convective heating uncertainty was due to uncertainty in the N2catalytic rate on the surface, while the remainder of the uncertainty was attributed to the turbulent Schmidt number and the wall roughness uncertainties.

Thomas K West IV↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity of Simulated Radiative Emission from Nitrogen Flows to Chemical Parameters

Numerical models of hypersonic flows rely on chemistry data inferred from experiments and quantum calculations. Experiments from NASA's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) measure the spectral emission of strong shocks in pure nitrogen flows. These spectral profiles are only approximately captured by numerical simulations. To address these discrepancies, one wishes to calibrate some of the chemical parameters to better match experiment. Because there are hundreds of parameters in the numerical model, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the entire chemistry database to determine which parameters are most important to analyze in the future. In order to perform this work it was necessary to generate a consistent chemical database that interfaced with both the CFD and line-by-line radiation solver. Using Monte Carlo methods, the total Sobol index was calculated for important parameters. Twenty parameters were identified as important across the nitrogen system. However, it was noted that in some spectral regions, the parametric uncertainty was unable to bound EAST measurements. Further improvements could be made by increasing the parameter uncertainties or addressing other sources of modeling error.

Kaelan B Hansson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity of Simulated Radiative Emission from Nitrogen Flows to Chemical Parameters

Numerical models of hypersonic flows rely on chemistry data inferred from experiments and quantum calculations. Experiments from NASA's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) measure the spectral emission of strong shocks in pure nitrogen flows. These spectral profiles are only approximately captured by numerical simulations. To address these discrepancies, one wishes to calibrate some of the chemical parameters to better match experiment. Because there are hundreds of parameters in the numerical model, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the entire chemistry database to determine which parameters are most important to analyze in the future. In order to perform this work it was necessary to generate a consistent chemical database that interfaced with both the CFD and line-by-line radiation solver. Using Monte Carlo methods, the total Sobol index was calculated for important parameters. Twenty parameters were identified as important across the nitrogen system. However, it was noted that in some spectral regions, the parametric uncertainty was unable to bound EAST measurements. Further improvements could be made by increasing the parameter uncertainties or addressing other sources of modeling error.

Kaelan Hansson↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Storage Tanks in Integrated Energy Systems

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification are essential steps for enhancing the accuracy of computational models by identifying and mitigating uncertainties. This study focuses on these steps for the Thermal Energy Delivery System at Idaho National Laboratory, specifically targeting the thermocline tank. Using a Modelica/Dymola simulation model, the study perturbed various design parameters and boundary conditions, including shape factor, porosity, outlet temperature, inlet mass flow rate, and system pressure, to predict and quantify uncertainty in the tank’s ax- ial temperature. A dataset of over 1,000 simulations was generated, and surrogate models were developed using the pyMAISE (Michigan Artificial Intelligence Standard Environment) library, which is an Automatic Machine Learning library for nuclear engineering applications. The optimal model, a feedforward neural network with two hidden layers, achieved an R2 score above 0.99 and a mean absolute error below 1 Kelvin. Sensitivity analyses using Sobol indices and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing methods on this surrogate model revealed that the inlet mass flow rate at initial timestamps and porosity significantly impacts predicted temperatures across all sensors and time steps.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of model parameters in MFiX particle-in-cell approach

The limitations in numerical treatment of solids-phase in conventional methods like Discrete Element Model and Two-Fluid Model have facilitated the development of alternative techniques such as Particle-In-Cell (PIC). However, a number of parameters are involved in PIC due to its empiricism. In this work, global sensitivity analysis of PIC model parameters is performed under three distinct operating regimes common in chemical engineering applications, viz. settling bed, bubbling fluidized bed and circulating fluidized bed. Simulations were performed using the PIC method in Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) developed by National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). A non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) based approach is applied using Nodeworks to first construct an adequate surrogate model and then identify the most influential parameters in each case. This knowledge will aid in developing an effective design of experiments and determine optimal parameters through techniques such as deterministic or statistical calibration.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive insights into competitive oxidation/sulfidation reactions on binary ferritic alloys at high temperatures

Interpreting high-temperature corrosion induced by mixed-gas atmospheres is challenging due to the different contributions of oxidizing gases. In this work, a comprehensive study on the combined oxidation/sulfidation using label molecules is presented. Fe-Cr model alloys with 2 wt% and 9 wt% Cr were isothermally exposed using a volumetric mixture of 0.5%S 16 O 2 /27%H 2 18 O and 0.5%S 16 O 2 /7%H 2 18 O at 650 °C for 5 h and then characterized by secondary ion mass spectroscopy (SIMS). Additionally, the reactions were followed in-situ utilizing energy dispersive X-ray diffraction. The study showed that both S 16 O 2 and H 2 18 O contribute to the oxidation of the alloys but to different extents depending on the Cr-content.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity analysis of thermal contact conductance modeling to inform MiniFuel irradiation capsule designs

The MiniFuel irradiation platform has been developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory as a flexible, high-throughput separate effects testing capability within the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments to achieve a specific time-averaged irradiation temperature for experimental objectives. A previous study identified that uncertainty in the component heat generation rates and thermal contact conductance (TCC) model are the most significant contributors to predicted fuel temperature variance. To address both sources of uncertainty, this work performs sensitivity analysis on the TCC model to identify high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute to fuel temperature variance. The TCC model is analyzed in increasing detail, first using a standalone Python code, then again after coupling Python to the BISON fuel performance code. Furthermore, the parameters with the largest contributions to fuel temperature variance which can be reduced through design changes are identified as the initial subcapsule gas pressure, contact pressure between the fuel and dish, and the effective surface roughness of the interface. A set of design recommendations for future capsule designs has been established and applied to reduce the previously quantified average fuel temperature uncertainty ranges of ± 40 °C in the HFIR vertical experiment facilities (VXF) and ± 80 °C in the removable beryllium (RB) reflector to approximately ± 32 °C and ± 53 °C, respectively. This equates to a 21 % and 33 % reduction in the uncertainty range of the average fuel temperature for VXF and RB, respectively.

BISON↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microseismicity Modulation Due To Changes in Geothermal Production at San Emidio, Nevada, USA

Brief cessations of geothermal production can induce seismicity, a phenomenon that has drawn increasing attention in recent years. Such observations are rare, and the underlying mechanism requires careful analysis. In April 2022, a dense seismic and hydrologic monitoring system was deployed at the San Emidio geothermal field, Nevada, to accompany a planned power plant shutdown. Using the dense seismic array data, we detected and located ∼1,800 microseismic events (MSEs) and developed a high-resolution tomographic P-wave velocity model. We observed substantially increased microseismicity during shutdown. Most MSEs occurred on pre-existing normal faults, which are contained within extremely low-velocity zones that are likely damaged, fluid-filled, and hydraulically connected to nearby production wells. Hydrologic data show rapid fluid pressure increases of <60 kPa following the shutdown. We suggest that the cessation of production rapidly increased fluid pressures along pre-existing fault zones, activating critically stressed fault patches and fractures and producing microseismicity.

Guo, Hao [University of Wisconsin-Madison, WI (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2020

Control of laser-beam spatial distribution for correcting the shape and refraction of eye cornea

The results of calculation and development of a device aimed at forming a laser beam with an annular intensity distribution and spatial mode homogenisation, as well as approbation of this device for biological phantoms and eyes in ex vivo experiments with laser non-ablative correction of the cornea profile, are presented. The radiation intensities and thermal field distributions on the surfaces of a phantom and isolated rabbit’s eye are investigated. The absence of significant heating in the central region of eye is confirmed. It is shown that this device can be used for laser impact in order to change symmetrically eye’s refraction. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Sensitivity of Variational Bayesian Neural Network Performance to Hyperparameters

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) produce predictive uncertainty by propagating uncertainty in neural network (NN) weights and offer the promise of obtaining not only an accurate predictive model but also accurate UQ. However, in practice, obtaining accurate UQ with BNNs is difficult due in part to the approximations used for model training (such as those made in variational inference) and in part to the need to choose a suitable set of hyperparameters; these hyperparameters outnumber those needed for traditional NNs and often have opaque effects on the results. We aim to shed light on the effects of hyperparameter choices for variational BNNs by performing a global sensitivity analysis of variational BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings. Our results indicate that many of the hyperparameters interact with each other to affect both predictive accuracy and UQ. For improved usage of variational BNNs in real-world applications, we suggest that thorough hyperparameter tuning, including tuning of prior hyperparameters and loss function parameters, is essential for accurate UQ in variational BNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regulatory response to a hybrid ancestral nitrogenase in Azotobacter vinelandii

Biological nitrogen fixation, the microbial reduction of atmospheric nitrogen to bioavailable ammonia, represents both a major limitation on biological productivity and a highly desirable engineering target for synthetic biology. However, the engineering of nitrogen fixation requires an integrated understanding of how the gene regulatory dynamics of host diazotrophs respond across sequence-function space of its central catalytic metalloenzyme, nitrogenase. Here, we interrogate this relationship by analyzing the transcriptome of Azotobacter vinelandii engineered with a phylogenetically inferred ancestral nitrogenase protein variant. The engineered strain exhibits reduced cellular nitrogenase activity but recovers wild-type growth rates following an extended lag period. We find that expression of genes within the immediate nitrogen fixation network is resilient to the introduced nitrogenase sequence-level perturbations. Rather the sustained physiological compatibility with the ancestral nitrogenase variant is accompanied by reduced expression of genes that support trace metal and electron resource allocation to nitrogenase. Our results spotlight gene expression changes in cellular processes adjacent to nitrogen fixation as productive engineering considerations to improve compatibility between remodeled nitrogenase proteins and engineered host diazotrophs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

WHOLESCALE: Microseismic Event Catalog for San Emidio, Nevada 2022

This submission includes a high-precision seismic event catalog estimated from seismic data collected at San Emidio, Nevada from April to May 2022. The catalog lists the precise time, location, and magnitude of microseismic events recorded during this period. Both the seismic data and microseismic event catalog were produced as part of the Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations and Lessen Expenses (WHOLESCALE) project. Attached here are the microseismic event catalog, a link to the raw seismic data, and a detailed description of methods used to create the catalog.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

WHOLESCALE - Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations And Lessen Expenses (Final Technical Report 2020 - 2024)

The WHOLESCALE acronym stands for Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations and Lessen Expenses. The goal of the WHOLESCALE project is to simulate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of stress in the geothermal system at San Emidio in Nevada, United States. To reach this goal, the WHOLESCALE team has developed a methodology to incorporate and interpret data from four methods of measurement into a multi-physics model that couples thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (T H-M) processes. The WHOLESCALE team has applied this methodology at the San Emidio geothermal field, located ~100 km north of Reno, Nevada in the northwestern Basin and Range province. The WHOLESCALE team includes 30 individuals working at two universities, two national laboratories, and one industry partner. Two master-degree students and five post-doctoral researchers have gained professional experience and earned partial financial support via the WHOLESCALE project. The WHOLESCALE team has taken advantage of the perturbations created by changes in pumping operations during planned shutdowns in 2016, 2021, and 2022 to infer temporal changes in the state of stress in the geothermal system at San Emidio, Nevada, U.S. The WHOLESCALE results support the working hypothesis that increasing pore-fluid pressure reduces the effective normal stress acting across fault zones. During normal operations, pumping in deep production wells decreases fluid pressures and thus increases the effective normal stresses on faults, reducing microseismicity. During planned shutdowns, the cessation of production increases pore-fluid pressure and reduces effective normal stress. The WHOLESCALE products generated during the 4-year period between 2020 and 2024 include: three articles published in the open-access, peer-reviewed scientific literature, two master’s theses, 20 presentations or papers at scientific conferences, and 17 data sets available on public repositories. The WHOLESCALE project has been completed in two phases that included three performance periods separated by two Go/No-go Stage Gate Reviews. Tasks were classified by data type (i.e., Geologic Structure, Borehole, Geodesy, Hydrology, Seismology, and Modeling). The first phase of the project started July 31, 2020 and included ongoing project coordination (Task 1), a project kickoff (Task 2), analysis of existing data (Task 3), development of the initial stress model & deployment design (Task 4), and Go/No-go Decision Point #1 (Task 5). Phase II began with implementing the 2022 deployment (Task 6), followed by Go/No-go Decision Point #2 (Task 7) The remainder of Phase II consisted of analyzing data collected during deployment (Task 8), calibration of the stress model on all observations (Task 9), and the Final Review (August 23, 2024) & Reporting (Task 10).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗