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At least 91 records · Page 5

Leveraging SETS resilience capabilities for safe-to-fail infrastructure under climate change

As the rehabilitation of infrastructure is outpaced by changes in the profile, frequency, and intensity of extreme weather events, infrastructure’s service disruptions and failures become increasingly likely. Safe-to-fail approaches for infrastructure planning and design improve the capacity of cities to adapt for uncertain climate futures by identifying social, ecological, and technological systems (SETS) capabilities to prepare for potential failure scenarios. In this work, we argue for transforming infrastructure planning and design to effectively utilize safe-to-fail approaches by navigating the opportunities and trade-offs of SETS resilience capabilities. From a technological vantage point, traditional infrastructure planning approaches account for social and ecological domains as external design conditions rather than embedded system characteristics. Safe-to-fail approaches directly challenge the isolation of the technological domain by necessitating a recognition that SETS domains are interconnected and interdependent in infrastructure systems, as such risks and system capabilities for resilience must be managed cohesively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The quantitative modelling of human spatial habitability

A theoretical model for evaluating human spatial habitability (HuSH) in the proposed U.S. Space Station is developed. Optimizing the fitness of the space station environment for human occupancy will help reduce environmental stress due to long-term isolation and confinement in its small habitable volume. The development of tools that operationalize the behavioral bases of spatial volume for visual kinesthetic, and social logic considerations is suggested. This report further calls for systematic scientific investigations of how much real and how much perceived volume people need in order to function normally and with minimal stress in space-based settings. The theoretical model presented in this report can be applied to any size or shape interior, at any scale of consideration, for the Space Station as a whole to an individual enclosure or work station. Using as a point of departure the Isovist model developed by Dr. Michael Benedikt of the U. of Texas, the report suggests that spatial habitability can become as amenable to careful assessment as engineering and life support concerns.

Wise, James A.↗

Past Approaches for Spent Nuclear Fuel, Transuranic, and High-Level Waste Disposal in the United States—Part 2: Siting Process, Staged Development, and Public Preferences

This report presents pertinent aspects of the ~50-year United States experience in siting a mined geologic disposal repository for spent nuclear fuel (SNF), transuranic (TRU) waste, and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) as related to site selection and the staged process for site investigations as specified in the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 and generic and site-specific regulations of the US Department of Energy (DOE), US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The roles of the Environmental Impact Statement and guidance in international consensus standards by the International Atomic Energy Agency are also mentioned. The focus is on siting and developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, an operating repository for TRU waste from atomic energy defense activities, and the proposed Yucca Mountain repository for commercial SNF and HLW. In the social dimension, the role of institutional stakeholders is described. Past national surveys related to waste management options for storage and disposal provide insight on public preferences of other stakeholders. The descriptions are intended to help other countries more fully understand the stages adopted for siting and developing repositories in the United States.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Generating Mixed Patterns of Residential Segregation: An Evolutionary Approach

The Schelling model of residential segregation has demonstrated that even the slightest preference for neighbors of the same race can be amplified into community-wide segregation. However, these models are unable to simulate mixed, coexisting patterns of segregation and integration, which have been seen to exist in cities. Using evolutionary model discovery we demonstrate how including social factors beyond racial bias when modeling relocation behavior enables the emergence of strongly mixed patterns. Our results indicate that the emergence of mixed patterns is better explained by multiple factors influencing the decision to relocate; the most important being the interaction of nonlinear, rapidly diminishing racial bias with a recent, historical tendency to move. Additionally, preference for less isolated neighborhoods or preference for neighborhoods with longer residing neighbors may produce weaker mixed patterns. Finally, this work highlights the importance of exploring the influence of multiple hypothesized factors of decision making, and their interactions, within agent rules, when studying emergent outcomes generated by agent-based models of complex social systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗

Setting the Baseline: The Current Understanding of Equity in Land-Based Wind Energy Development and Operation

As discussions about economic equity and environmental justice have become more prevalent in recent years, the related concepts of "energy justice" or "energy equity" have received increasing attention from policymakers, industry, nonprofits, and academics. According to the Initiative for Energy Justice (2019), energy justice is defined as "The goal of achieving equity in both the social and economic participation in the energy system, while also remediating social, economic, and health burdens on those disproportionately harmed by the energy system" The state of equity as it applies specifically to wind energy, however, remains relatively unexplored and isolated to academia. As a result, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Wind Energy Equity Engagement Series aims to better understand equity in wind energy through engagement with experts and communities, including representation in decision-making around new developments, potential impacts to communities near wind energy installations, and community-level distribution of the benefits and burdens of wind energy. This report covers the first three phases of the series.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Power System Modeling for the Study of High Penetration of Distributed Photovoltaic Energy

Many conventional power systems are evolving due to the growth of renewable energy and distributed energy resources (DERs). Modeling the interplay of transmission and distribution systems is critical to analyze how DERs impact a system’s conventional operation and which electric infrastructure improvements are needed to achieve a balance between centralized generation and DERs. This article describes the process, tools, and resources used to model electric power systems with a centralized infrastructure in an isolated context and limited access to actual utility data. Photovoltaic systems installed on residential rooftops were the main design option. This work broadened the typical power system modeling to include planning and social considerations. This integrative engineering-social method allows for interdisciplinary teams to work in the development of a model as part of broader design goals for a renewable-dominant energy system. The Puerto Rico electric power system was used as a case study to demonstrate the process. The integrative engineering-social perspective in developing the model and the actions to manage data limitations are aspects that could be followed in other locations with aggressive renewable energy goals and where utility data are not readily available.

Cuello-Polo, Gustavo↗

Enhancing Team Performance for Long-Duration Space Missions

Success of exploration missions will depend on skilled performance by a distributed team that includes both the astronauts in space and Mission Control personnel. Coordinated and collaborative teamwork will be required to cope with challenging complex problems in a hostile environment. While thorough preflight training and procedures will equip creW'S to address technical problems that can be anticipated, preparing them to solve novel problems is much more challenging. This presentation will review components of effective team performance, challenges to effective teamwork, and strategies for ensuring effective team performance. Teamwork skills essential for successful team performance include the behaviors involved in developing shared mental models, team situation awareness, collaborative decision making, adaptive coordination behaviors, effective team communication, and team cohesion. Challenges to teamwork include both chronic and acute stressors. Chronic stressors are associated with the isolated and confined environment and include monotony, noise, temperatures, weightlessness, poor sleep and circadian disruptions. Acute stressors include high workload, time pressure, imminent danger, and specific task-related stressors. Of particular concern are social and organizational stressors that can disrupt individual resilience and effective mission performance. Effective team performance can be developed by training teamwork skills, techniques for coping with team conflict, intracrew and intercrew communication, and working in a multicultural team; leadership and teamwork skills can be fostered through outdoor survival training exercises. The presentation will conclude with an evaluation of the special requirements associated with preparing crews to function autonomously in long-duration missions.

Orasanu, Judith M.↗

A population data-driven workflow for COVID-19 modeling and learning

CityCOVID is a detailed agent-based model that represents the behaviors and social interactions of 2.7 million residents of Chicago as they move between and colocate in 1.2 million distinct places, including households, schools, workplaces, and hospitals, as determined by individual hourly activity schedules and dynamic behaviors such as isolating because of symptom onset. Disease progression dynamics incorporated within each agent track transitions between possible COVID-19 disease states, based on heterogeneous agent attributes, exposure through colocation, and effects of protective behaviors of individuals on viral transmissibility. Throughout the COVID-19 epidemic, CityCOVID model outputs have been provided to city, county, and state stakeholders in response to evolving decision-making priorities, while incorporating emerging information on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology. Here we demonstrate our efforts in integrating our high-performance epidemiological simulation model with large-scale machine learning to develop a generalizable, flexible, and performant analytical platform for planning and crisis response.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗

A comprehensive review on the loss of wellbore integrity due to cement failure and available remedial methods

With the recent abrupt fluctuations in oil pricing and the need of complying with environmental and social requirements, nowadays it is an urgent call for the oil and gas industry to produce the hydrocarbon without any loss as well as in a safe manner. Cements are placed in the annular space of casing to provide zonal isolation in between wellbore and surface during the operational life cycle of the well or even after the abandonment. But this is not what happens most of the time. Cement degrades or loses its integrity through debonding either from the casing or formation and generates cracks or fractures due to varied reasons throughout the life of the well. Multiple causes contribute to the loss of wellbore integrity – either by physical, mechanical, or chemical processes. These failures lead to sustained casing pressure (SCP) and contamination of surrounding environment. To combat this issue or to restore the well integrity, multiple remedial actions have also been either implemented in the industry or proposed based on experimental research to prevent the damage or to seal the leakage in the cement sheath. Here, this paper will provide an extensive review of the underlying reasons of cement failure and the available remedial actions to minimize the loss of well integrity issue. These information are not only useful to know about the different corrective options available for us to implement in industry but also it will provide us a knowledge base regarding how we can enhance the performance of the exiting systems to battle the cement integrity problem more efficiently.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Construction and application of a questionnaire for the social scientific investigation of environmental noise effects

A social psychological questionnair has been developed to study the effects of environmental noise and was applied to 636 people living in 19 different areas of Hamburg. The theoretical foundations and the statistical means employed in its development are described. Four main reactions to noise are isolated statistically, and it is determined that these are moderated by several intervening variables, chief of which are coping capacity for noise, the perceived dangerousness of the noise souce, other daily loads and the individual's liability.

Guski, R.↗

Migration Theory in Climate Mobility Research

The purpose of this article is to explore how migration theory is invoked in empirical studies of climate-related migration, and to provide suggestions for engagement with theory in the emerging field of climate mobility. Theory is critical for understanding processes we observe in social-ecological systems because it points to a specific locus of attention for research, shapes research questions, guides quantitative model development, influences what researchers find, and ultimately informs policies and programs. Research into climate mobility has grown out of early studies on environmental migration, and has often developed in isolation from broader theoretical developments in the migration research community. As such, there is a risk that the work may be inadequately informed by the rich corpus of theory that has contributed to our understanding of who migrates; why they migrate; the types of mobility they employ; what sustains migration streams; and why they choose certain destinations over others. On the other hand, there are ways in which climate and broader environment migration research is enriching the conceptual frameworks being employed to understand migration, particularly forced migration. This paper draws on a review of 75 empirical studies and modeling efforts conducted by researchers from a diversity of disciplines, covering various regions, and using a variety of data sources and methods to assess how they used theory in their research. The goal is to suggest ways forward for engagement with migration theory in this large and growing research domain.

migration theory↗

Distributed Renewables for Arctic Energy: A Case Study

Alaska is a vast state that stretches into the Arctic Circle. Roughly 140,000 people in the state are dependent on isolated electric grids, traditionally burning expensive fossil fuels. This has negative impacts on air quality and climate. As the climate warms, fuel supply chains and traditional ways of life are threatened. Renewable electric sources offer a clean, resilient alternative with less volatile costs, but there are a variety of technical, social, economic, and political challenges to developing renewable energy systems in remote Arctic communities. Examples include harsh operating conditions, lack of local technical and managerial capacity, complex funding mechanisms, and glacial permitting processes. In this study, we interview one group of communities that are interested in adding renewable energy to their systems to understand the needs and challenges they face, and then another group that has successfully installed renewable energy, to understand how they overcame such challenges and the lessons they learned. Notable results include the importance of local buy-in, education, and technical involvement, procuring external funding sources, inter-community collaboration, installing bespoke systems, and working with reliable equipment suppliers. The goal of this report is to orient and inspire Arctic communities that want to begin their renewable transition, by providing helpful examples and points of contact.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Epidemiologic research in Antarctica

A study of epidemiology of respiratory viruses that was begun in the early 1960's is described. Locations selected for the study included a Wisconsin University housing village, a second grade school population, individual volunteers who associated socially, married couples, and the winter-over population at McMurdo Bay and at Scott Base in the Antarctic. It was concluded that most rhinovirus transmission is through aerosolized particles. Air filtration and careful nasal sanitation with virucidal tissues are determined to be effective in blocking rhinovirus transmission and should be useful in both isolated space colonies and in ordinary earth-bound populations.

Source record↗

Identifying Basic Factors for Communal Prosperity - Space Technologies are Bridging this Gap

There are many aspects, which are important for maintaining environmentally clean and safe conditions for a healthy and economically self-sufficient community. This problem was somewhat of a lesser concern in earlier days because many communities were small, isolated and solely dependent upon their owners or landlords. Due to an astronomical growth in human population within the last century, extensive use of combustion technologies, and changing environmental conditions has resulted in scarcity of natural resources. In reality, the societal sustainability issues are becoming much more acute and complex. Therefore, the researchers and social scientists are joining forces to address these topics and find solutions to many contentious areas such as public health and diseases, water resources, agriculture production, survivability during and after the natural disasters, energy needs and many others. Forthrightly speaking, there is no canned solution or a methodology to go about solving these issues since the magnitude and complexity of these issues are multi-dimensional and are further inter-locked with other areas. A common sense tells us that we need data, resources and technologies to begin addressing these problems. This is where space observations have provided us with tremendous information and opportunities, which are of great assets to the science, economist, and social scientists. This paper specifically addresses what are critical areas for a successful societal sustainability and growth; and how can we take advantage of multiple sensors and models already in existence. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper further examines various space sensors and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing such valuable information so the decision makers can take full advantage in making timely societal decisions.

Habib, Shahid↗

The psychology of isolated and confined environments. Understanding human behavior in Antarctica

Psychosocial adaptation to isolated and confined environments exhibits 4 distinct characteristics. First, it is seasonal: Variations in mood are associated with the altered diurnal cycle and psychological segmentation of the mission. Second, it is situational: Concurrent measures of personality, interpersonal needs, and coping styles are better predictors of mood and performance than are predeployment measures. Third, it is social: Members of expeditions with low social coherence report significantly more depression, anxiety, and anger than individuals belonging to expeditions with high social coherence. Fourth, it is salutogenic: Depressed mood is inversely associated with the severity of the physical environment of the station, and the winter-over experience is associated with reduced subsequent rates of hospital admissions, suggesting positive benefits for individuals seeking challenging experiences.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

EXODUS: Integrating intelligent systems for launch operations support

Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is developing knowledge-based systems to automate critical operations functions for the space shuttle fleet. Intelligent systems will monitor vehicle and ground support subsystems for anomalies, assist in isolating and managing faults, and plan and schedule shuttle operations activities. These applications are being developed independently of one another, using different representation schemes, reasoning and control models, and hardware platforms. KSC has recently initiated the EXODUS project to integrate these stand alone applications into a unified, coordinated intelligent operations support system. EXODUS will be constructed using SOCIAL, a tool for developing distributed intelligent systems. EXODUS, SOCIAL, and initial prototyping efforts using SOCIAL to integrate and coordinate selected EXODUS applications are described.

Adler, Richard M.↗