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DOE OSTI2021

Remote Alaska Communities Energy Efficiency Competition: Energy Efficiency for the Gem of the Yukon (Final Report)

Over the past decade, the City of Ruby has been proactive in working to reduce cost and energy use in the community. Ruby (Tl’aa’ologhe) is a remote city in Alaska located on the south bank of the Yukon River near the Kilbuck-Kuskokwim Mountains, about 50 air miles east of Galena and 230 air miles west of Fairbanks. As of 2019, the community has a population of over 150 people and most of Ruby’s residents are Koyukon Athabascan. Ruby has a long history of promoting local efficiency and clean energy in an effort to become more sustainable. Between 2007-2010, the community hosted Alaska’s first demonstration of an in-river hydrokinetic test project, sponsored by the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council. In 2011, a 5kW solar photo-voltaic (PV) array was installed by the Interior Regional Housing Authority. In 2012, the community had a new power plant constructed by the Alaska Energy Authority that supplies waste heat to the washeteria, clinic and public safety garage, saving the community more than 4,000 gallons of heating fuel per year. The clinic, constructed by the Tanana Chiefs Conference, is one of the most energy efficient buildings in the interior and utilizes new building efficiency standards that were passed by the tribes. It has a 5kW solar PV array that provides energy into the local electric grid and offsets approximately 20% of the annual energy use. Building on this legacy, the City of Ruby entered into Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Remote Alaska Communities Energy Efficiency Competition (RACEE) in 2016, pledging to reduce per-capita energy use 15% by 2020. During the second phase of the competition, 13 communities including Ruby were provided funding for tailored technical assistance to measure energy use and create energy efficiency plans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

DC Arc-Flash Safety for 1,500VDC: Methodology, Verification, and Codifying

This project aimed to address critical gaps in understanding arc flash phenomena in commercially operating photovoltaic (PV) plants. Motivated by the global growth of PV systems and the associated safety risks, the research sought to enhance knowledge, improve incident energy prediction models, and contribute to the overall safety and reliability of PV installations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Impact of Residential Solar Contract Cancellations in the United States

The residential solar photovoltaic (PV) market in the United States is growing, despite frequent customer cancellations. Contract cancellations result in lost time and costs that must be borne by installers, often in the form of higher "soft costs" (i.e., non-equipment costs). These costs are often passed on to customers who successfully install PV systems. To date, few studies have attempted to estimate national cancellation rates or model the impacts on installed system costs. In this report, we utilize an installer-provided dataset of 199,665 residential PV-only projects representing about 10% of U.S. installs each year from 2017-2019. With this data, we evaluate cancellation rates and trends from contract signing to install. Next, by leveraging NREL's soft cost model for residential solar, we estimate installer spending through each phase of the pre-install process. Applying our findings on cancellation timelines and rates, we then estimate the potential cost impacts to successful installs from contract cancellations. Our work suggests that the rates and impacts of contract cancellations have been previously underestimated. Namely, we find that cancellations/unsuccessful project are; more common than previous estimates suggest; occur earlier in project timelines, though a significant number happen even after permit/ATB approvals; and contribute significantly to customer acquisition and other soft costs. We also find that cancellation do not appear to be driven by review delays in permitting and interconnection applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Greenhouse gas emissions embodied in the U.S. solar photovoltaic supply chain

Abstract Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity is considered to be an important source of electricity generation in the quest for net-zero carbon emissions. However, the growth of solar electricity is creating both increased material demands and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from silicon and PV manufacturing (also referred to as embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity). Here we analyze the silicon and solar PV supply chain for the United States (U.S.) market and find that the embodied GHG emissions of solar PV panel materials (such as silicon), manufacture, logistics, and installation in the U.S. given the current supply chain are 36 g CO 2 e kWh −1 of solar electricity generated. Eighty-five percent of the embodied GHG emissions are from PV panel production processes in China and other Asia–Pacific countries. Moving the silicon and PV manufacturing to the U.S. would reduce the embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity by 16% from its current level, primarily because of the lower GHG emission intensity of the U.S. electrical grid and the lower GHG emissions for aluminum electrolysis in North America. Future scenario analysis shows that by 2030, with the U.S. PV domestic supply chain and its decarbonized grid electricity and aluminum production, as well as improving PV conversion efficiency, the embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity in the U.S. will be reduced to 21 g CO 2 e kWh −1 .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Progress Toward Renewable Electricity: Tracking the Role of Solar (Version 5)

Photovoltaics (PV) represented ~70% of newly installed global electricity generating capacity for 2024, continuing a trend of increasing fractional contribution over each of the past 5 years. Year-to-year growth in both PV installations and PV-generated electricity continued at remarkable levels (~32% and ~28%, respectively), while grid scale battery storage again demonstrated triple digit fractional growth (113%). The contribution to electricity generation from combined low-carbon sources (hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar) exceeded a new threshold of 40%. Following its initial publication in 2021, this annual article collects information from multiple sources and presents it systematically as a reference for IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics readers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Community-Scale Solar Photovoltaic for the Forest County Potawatomi Community

Forest County Potawatomi Community will install and operate 1,228 kW of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy systems at approximately nine (9) tribal facilities in Milwaukee, WI and on the Tribe's Forest County reservation lands. The individual installations will range in size from 8 kW to 280 kW, and will displace between 4.2 and 99.9% of total current energy usage from those buildings and save $105,996 annually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Cybersecurity: A vision for improving cyber maturity of distributed and utility-scale solar energy installations

As the solar energy sector continues to expand, its integration into the broader energy infrastructure presents both unprecedented opportunities and new risks. The increasing reliance on digital technologies and interconnected systems in solar energy creates an expanded attack surface for motivated cyber adversaries. Cyberattacks have the potential to cause disruptions in energy production, damage to equipment, financial losses, and compromises in national security. Therefore, ensuring robust cybersecurity measures is paramount to protect the integrity, availability, confidentiality, and access control of solar energy systems. However, there are still key gaps and challenges to be addressed in industry and research, which stakeholders must race to address as they combat a growing number of real-world cyber incidents that affect solar energy systems and a growing number of vulnerabilities discovered and disclosed in key types of equipment. This roadmap explore the current state of solar PV cybersecurity and the gaps and challenges still to be addressed.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

bifiPV2020 Bifacial Workshop: A Technology Overview

The virtual bifiPV Workshop was held in July 2020 to provide the solar industry with a forum for sharing and discussing research into bifacial photovoltaic (PV) technology. This report outlines major insights from the workshop to give the reader an overview of the latest developments in bifacial PV technology worldwide, from the lab to the field. Citations are drawn from this workshop unless otherwise noted, with all proceedings available online at bifipvworkshop. com. Presentations for the bifiPV2020 Workshop focused on the following areas: bifacial power plant modeling and simulation, albedo improvements, the development of encapsulants, the durability and reliability of current bifacial technologies, performance comparisons between glass-glass and glass-transparent backsheet configurations, the future of passivated emitter and rear contact (PERC) solar cells, and the growing adoption of n-type solar cells. With 650 GW total PV installed worldwide and 1 TW to come very soon, PERC is now the standard PV cell type produced en masse. However, it is already reaching 23% efficiency, the upper limit for this type of technology. PV modules breaking the 0.5-kW barrier are starting to appear, and the costs of standard PERC technology are already below 0.2 USD/Wp. In 2019, five GW of bifacial PV were installed worldwide. In 2020, the majority of bifacial installations are expected to be located in the United States, China, and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states. N-type bifacial technologies are becoming increasingly viable and have huge potential to dominate the market in the coming years. With bifacial technology mounted on horizontal single-axis trackers (HSAT), bids below 10 USD/MWh will soon be observed in the MENA region, and later in Chile and the United States. Factory audits and reliability testing can reduce field failures by helping buyers to select producers that follow rigorous quality assurance and quality control processes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

bifiPV2020 Bifacial Workshop: A Technology Overview

The virtual bifiPV Workshop was held in July 2020 to provide the solar industry with a forum for sharing and discussing research into bifacial photovoltaic (PV) technology. This report outlines major insights from the workshop to give the reader an overview of the latest developments in bifacial PV technology worldwide, from the lab to the field. Citations are drawn from this workshop unless otherwise noted. Presentations for the bifiPV2020 Workshop focused on the following areas: bifacial power plant modeling and simulation, albedo improvements, the development of encapsulants, the durability and reliability of current bifacial technologies, performance comparisons between glass-glass and glass-transparent backsheet configurations, the future of passivated emitter and rear contact (PERC) solar cells, and the growing adoption of n-type solar cells. With 650 GW total PV installed worldwide and 1 TW to come very soon, PERC is now the standard PV cell type produced en masse. However, it is already reaching 23% efficiency, the upper limit for this type of technology. PV modules breaking the 0.5-kW barrier are starting to appear, and the costs of standard PERC technology are already below 0.2 USD/Wp. In 2019, five GW of bifacial PV were installed worldwide. In 2020, the majority of bifacial installations are expected to be located in the United States, China, and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states. N-type bifacial technologies are becoming increasingly viable and have huge potential to dominate the market in the coming years. With bifacial technology mounted on horizontal single-axis trackers (HSAT), bids below 10 USD/MWh will soon be observed in the MENA region, and later in Chile and the United States. Factory audits and reliability testing can reduce field failures by helping buyers to select producers that follow rigorous quality assurance and quality control processes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fall 2021 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

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DOE OSTI2022

Spring 2022 Solar Industry Update

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DOE OSTI2022

Summer 2022 Solar Industry Update

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DOE OSTI2022

The roles of learning mechanisms in services: Evidence from US residential solar installations

Non-hardware costs are majority of the cost of producing solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity. Here we use matched data on patents and over 125,000 residential PV installations to estimate the effects of three learning mechanisms in reducing PV costs: learning by doing, searching, and interacting. While previous work in this area has focused predominantly on learning by doing, we find that learning by searching and interacting are also significant mechanisms to facilitate non-hardware cost reductions. Including these two mechanisms reduces the effect of learning by doing in explaining non-hardware cost reductions by 43%. Our results suggest that prior work may overemphasize the role of learning by doing and the policies that help generate learning by doing. Analysis of the supplier-network between installers and their suppliers shows that concentrated supplier networks are associated with lower non-hardware costs, although there are key differences between installer-panel and installer-inverter manufacturer networks. An important implication is that policies for reducing non-hardware costs need to take a more complete view of how different learning mechanisms engender cost reductions. They should particularly consider the important role of learning in supplier networks in cost reductions—an effect that until now has largely been missing in analyses of solar non-hardware costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030

In 2020, the United States had a cumulative 19 gigawatts (GWdc) of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. A growing percentage of these solar installations are paired with battery storage, up from 0.1% in 2015 to 8.1% in 2020. Some states are considering or have already adopted policy mandates to require solar and storage systems. The cost of installing residential solar and battery storage projects remains a barrier to widespread adoption nationwide. For example, the cost of a typical residential retrofit solar and storage system ranges from $\$ 26,153$ to $\$ 37,909$, which is 38% to 100% higher than a standalone PV system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deployment of Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy on Indians Lands – A Community Solar Project

The Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI or Tribe) is a federally recognized Indian Tribe located on ancestral homelands in western North Carolina. The Tribe is comprised of just over 16,000 enrolled members, with an estimated 8,000 – 10,000 residing on tribal lands. The Qualla Boundary is comprised of over 56,000 acres of contiguous trust land adjacent to the Great Smoky Mountain National Park. The EBCI also possess an assortment of scattered parcels of varying sizes across western North Carolina, some in trust status and others in deeded or fee simple. This project was implemented on a trust parcel in Cherokee County, NC. The Tribe was awarded the maximum amount of $\$ $1,000,000 for the installation of a 705.6 kilowatt (kW) solar PV array to supplement the power consumed and reduce annual utility costs at the Harrah’s Cherokee Valley River (HCVR) casino and hotel in Murphy, NC. The casino is a tribal entity of the Tribe. The total cost of the project was $\$ $2.364 million. The system was officially commissioned on April 12, 2019. For the purpose of calculating the amount of power produced and reduction in utility costs, the time frame assessed is May 2019 through April 2020. All power generated was consumed onsite.Based on the first full year of data, the project achieved the estimated 8.3% reduction in utility costs. A total of six casino and tribal staff were trained and received a North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners (NABCEP) certification, giving our staff the resources and skills to manage and operate the solar PV array. Based on the Tribal match of $\$ $1,377,797 and estimated net annual benefit of $89,000, the estimated return on investment (ROI) is 15.48 years.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Aerosol and Cloud on the Solar Energy Potential over the Central Gangetic Himalayan Region

We examine the impact of atmospheric aerosols and clouds on the surface solar radiation and solar energy at Nainital, a high-altitude remote location in the central Gangetic Himalayan region (CGHR). For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of remote-sensed data in terms of ground-based AERONET Sun Photometer and satellite observations from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), with radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations and 1 day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Clouds and aerosols are one of the most common sources of solar irradiance attenuation and hence causing performance issues in the photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) plant installations. The outputs of RTM results presented with high accuracy under clear, cloudy sky and dust conditions for global horizontal (GHI) and beam horizontal irradiance (BHI). On an annual basis the total aerosol attenuation was found to be up to 105 kWh m –2 for the GHI and 266 kWh m –2 for BHI, respectively, while the cloud effect is much stronger with an attenuation of 245 and 271 kWh m –2 on GHI and BHI. The results of this study will support the Indian solar energy producers and electricity handling entities in order to quantify the energy and financial losses due to cloud and aerosol presence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Knowledge Spillovers and Cost Reductions in Solar Soft Costs

Despite the commonly acknowledged importance of knowledge spillovers in reducing solar soft costs, we are only beginning to answer a fundamental question: who learns what (knowledge acquisition), from whom (knowledge production), and how (spillover mechanisms)? Until recently, this important topic has been largely unexplored in the case of solar soft costs. Thus, this project set out to identify how knowledge spillovers affect soft costs in the U.S. photovoltaic (PV) installation industry, specifically how important spillovers are, what types of knowledge are most likely to spillover, and how networks of actors affect spillovers. Our findings offer insights for designing solutions that address problems associated with knowledge spillovers and that leverage spillovers to reduce solar soft costs. Recognizing the ambiguity in the definition of soft costs, i.e., “non-hardware costs,” and variability in soft cost categories, we developed the Solar Soft Cost Ontology (SSCO) to systematically identify key concepts related to soft costs, network actors, learning processes, and the relationships between them. This ontology served as a foundational organizational structure for the methodology of the remaining tasks: case studies, surveys, pricing analysis, patent analysis, network analysis, and project integration across tasks. While there is substantial learning among installers that is reducing the soft costs for PV installations, most of that learning is retained by firms rather than spread across the industry. The positive relationship between experience accumulation and cost reductions is typically explained as learning by doing (LBD), but we find that LBD effects are mediated by other learning mechanisms, including learning by searching and learning by interacting. Knowledge spillovers have significant potential to reduce solar PV soft costs, but successful knowledge spillover pathways are complex and non-trivial. There are a wide variety of ways to construct an installation business, thus categories of firms that can effectively cross-learn directly are small and what knowledge is relevant to whom is challenging and costly for firms to assess. This fragmentation limits the critical mass needed for spillover related soft cost reductions. Knowledge does not flow directly between installers. Indirect knowledge transfer pathways are critical: distributors, software providers, collaboratives, and hiring. Furthermore, diverse, more integrated knowledge networks tend to promote successful learning by organizations and across the system as a whole. Accordingly, we find the need to supporting the whole ecosystem using an integrated policy and programmatic approach to support installers, distributors, complementary sector, and facilitators. Overall, a deliberate policy-mix design is needed to reduce the solar PV deployment barrier in terms of installation cost reductions, because deployment policies could potentially interact with policies that facilitate network-building and technological innovation. A combination of deployment policies, innovation-support policies, and network-facilitating policies could potentially lead to a more desired market outcome through achieving higher joint learning rates from firms’ cumulative experiences developed in a more integrated production and deployment ecosystem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summer 2023 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗