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At least 91 records · Page 5

Regulation of Solar Wind Electron Temperature Anisotropy by Collisions and Instabilities

Abstract Typical solar wind electrons are modeled as being composed of a dense but less energetic thermal “core” population plus a tenuous but energetic “halo” population with varying degrees of temperature anisotropies for both species. In this paper, we seek a fundamental explanation of how these solar wind core and halo electron temperature anisotropies are regulated by combined effects of collisions and instability excitations. The observed solar wind core/halo electron data in ( β ∥ , T ⊥ / T ∥ ) phase space show that their respective occurrence distributions are confined within an area enclosed by outer boundaries. Here, T ⊥ / T ∥ is the ratio of perpendicular and parallel temperatures and β ∥ is the ratio of parallel thermal energy to background magnetic field energy. While it is known that the boundary on the high- β ∥ side is constrained by the temperature anisotropy-driven plasma instability threshold conditions, the low- β ∥ boundary remains largely unexplained. The present paper provides a baseline explanation for the low- β ∥ boundary based upon the collisional relaxation process. By combining the instability and collisional dynamics it is shown that the observed distribution of the solar wind electrons in the ( β ∥ , T ⊥ / T ∥ ) phase space is adequately explained, both for the “core” and “halo” components.

Yoon, Peter H. (ORCID:0000000181343790)↗

Feedback and Oscillations: Constructing Feedback Systems for Root Cause Analysis of Oscillations in Power Grids

Dynamic phenomena linked to inverter-based resources (IBRs) have gained global attention. Several IBR-induced dynamics have caused bulk power system-connected wind or solar power plants to trip, and some have even led to widespread outages. In addition, many oscillations have been observed involving IBR power plants. In 2023, the IEEE Power & Energy Society (PES) IBR Subsynchronous Oscillations (SSO) task force published a journal article, “Real-World Subsynchronous Oscillation Events in Power Grids With High Penetrations of Inverter-Based Resources,” in which 19 IBR oscillation events were examined for their causation. Earlier in 2020, another PES task force article, “Definition and Classification of Power System Stability-Revisited & Extended,” authored by prominent academics, introduced converter-driven stability as a new category of stability. The international power grid industry community also took action by publishing the CIGRE Green Book, Power System Dynamic Modelling and Analysis in Evolving Networks (led by Babak Badrzadeh and Zia Emin) in 2024. In August 2024, the Energy Systems Integration Group (ESIG) released a practical guide led by Nick Miller, “Diagnosis and Mitigation of Observed Oscillations in IBR-Dominant Power System: A Practical Guide.” The goal of the guide is to assist practicing engineers in making initial judgments and conducting detailed analyses about oscillations. Finally, when addressing the classification of stability and oscillations, the guide emphasizes a causality-based taxonomy for grouping, such as voltage control-induced oscillations, synchronization-induced oscillations, and frequency or active power control-induced oscillations.

Fan, Lingling [Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL (↗

Gerischer Electrochemistry Today

Semiconductor photoelectrochemistry is a dynamic and interdisciplinary field at the forefront of research in solar fuels, energy conversion, and catalysis. Here, this Perspective captures the collective insights from the second Gerischer Electrochemistry Today Symposium, held at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, CO, in August 2024, which convened leading researchers, early-career scientists, and industry partners to define the critical next steps for the field. Through interactive sessions, technical talks, panel discussions, and training initiatives─including a Semiconductor Electrochemistry Bootcamp─the symposium emphasized three pillars of advancement: (i) facilitating the exchange of new ideas in semiconductor electrochemistry and charge separation; (ii) fostering the development of future researchers, research topics, and participation in the semiconductor workforce; and (iii) building community. This Energy Focus distills key themes from the meeting and identifies major knowledge gaps in the following areas: mechanisms of charge separation and recombination, role of defects and disorder, dynamic and operando characterization methods, interfacial chemistry and surface passivation, theoretical and modeling limitations, and standardization and benchmarking. The inclusive and collaborative structure of the symposium enabled the generation of this comprehensive report that will serve as a roadmap for fundamental and applied research in the rapidly evolving field of semiconductor electrochemistry over the next decade.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Light induced ion migration studies in perovskite solar cell using nonlinear impedance spectroscopy

Complex interactions between mobile ions and charge carriers in perovskite solar cells (PSCs) make it challenging to fully understand their dynamic interplay. Exposure to light further complicates these interactions, altering the system’s dynamics and inducing nonlinear effects that lead to changes in the J−V curve. Understanding these effects is crucial for improving the operational stability of PSCs. Impedance spectroscopy (IS) is a powerful technique for evaluating relaxation processes in the frequency domain; however, it is limited in capturing nonlinear contributions. Here, in this work, nonlinear impedance spectroscopy (NLIS) is employed to analyze the higher harmonic response to AC perturbation, both in the dark and after short-term light exposure. A shift in the low-frequency (LF) higher harmonic peak is observed after open-circuit light exposure, attributed to an altered electric field suggesting ion re-distribution, whereas closed-circuit exposure shows no LF shift, indicating minimal ion movement. Additionally, light exposure reduces higher-order admittance, more notably in open-circuit conditions, suggesting decreased recombination. Temperature-dependent analysis was conducted to characterize the activation energy of migrating species, identifying iodide as the dominant migrating ion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Low embodied energy and carbon, high lifetime silicon boules via a combined chemical vapor deposition/float zone process

This work evaluates a new process route to making float zone (Fz)-quality silicon wafers using a combination of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling and technoeconomic analysis. Our analysis finds that the new process competes with Czochralski (Cz)-grown wafers on a levelized cost of energy system level. The new process also decreases embodied energy and carbon of silicon photovoltaics (PV) by ~6x circumventing the energy-costly Siemens process used in polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) production plants to generate feedstock for Fz and Cz boules. Instead of using poly-Si from the Siemens process to feed crystallization, the new process uses the high-purity, trichlorosilane (TCS) precursor gas to grow a poly-Si feed rod in-situ during a modified Fz1,2 boule growth process. The gas-to-boule float zone process enables opportunity to produce high-purity (low metals and oxygen content), uniformly doped single crystal silicon boules and wafers with high bulk lifetimes (τ bulk > 15 ms) to enable higher efficiency cells (>27 %) with fewer known degradation mechanisms than Czochralski (Cz)-grown wafers. These benefits reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of PV-produced electricity. Here we show the results of our CFD and chemical modeling of the process to prove feasibility and economic viability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 2. Overview of the Coupled System

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3) represents the latest advancement in Earth system modeling developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Building upon previous versions, E3SMv3 introduces significant updates across its coupled components to enhance capability and improve fidelity. The atmosphere component incorporates advancements in chemistry, aerosol-cloud interactions, convection, and microphysics. The ocean features a new time-stepping scheme and a higher-resolution unstructured mesh with sub-ice-shelf cavities, while the sea ice model integrates advanced snow and ice physics for more realistic cryospheric simulations. The land model introduces prognostic vegetation dynamics and a new sub-grid topographic treatment of solar radiation. A new tri-grid configuration harmonizes the horizontal grids of the land and river components for improved process coupling. It is enabled by a new non-linear remapping between the atmosphere and land. E3SMv3 underwent extensive testing through a comprehensive simulation campaign, including pre-industrial control, idealized CO 2 experiments, and historical simulations spanning 1850–2024. The model demonstrates significant improvements in simulating the evolution of the historical surface temperature, particularly addressing the “pothole cooling” bias in earlier versions. Reduced aerosol-related forcing contributes to more realistic radiative forcing and better alignment with the observational record. Ocean heat content (OHC) and sea ice trends are also improved as a result.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distributed Automatic Generation Control Considering DPV Using T&D Dynamic Co-Simulation

The increasing adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) over the last decade warrants a reconsideration of control of generation resources. This paper proposes a distributed Automatic Generation Control (AGC) using transmission-and-distribution (T&D) dynamic co-simulation framework for the efficient DPV frequency regulation services. The co-simulation framework allows AGC units to exchange the information for distributed AGC, based on their adopted communication network topology. As a result, a cost-effective automatic generation control is achieved with DPV and conventional generators. The proposed distributed AGC is based on the gossip algorithm in which the neighboring AGC units share the relevant local information with each other and updates their share of AGC regulation signal. Distributed photovoltaics (DPV) unit contribute to AGC response based on their headroom capacity via DER aggregators. The algorithm is tested on IEEE-14 bus transmission system under conditions of generation failure and random load variation to observe effective frequency regulations service offered by DPVs and other AGC units. The study shows that DPV can effectively participate in AGC with the proposed distributed control framework.

automatic generation control↗

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗

Thermal and electric multidomain dynamic model for integration of power grid distribution with behind-the-meter devices

As renewable energy sources like solar and wind power become more integrated into the grid, coordinated control of behind-the-meter devices is crucial for enhancing grid flexibility and reliability and for meeting cost targets, with standardized models being developed to support this transition. The increasing flexibility and uncertainty of integrated renewable energy grids, along with interactions between various subsystems, make traditional steady-state modeling insufficient to capture transient and dynamic behaviors. Current models (e.g., composite load and battery equivalent models) focus on thermodynamic or electrical characteristics but overlook critical electromechanical interactions. This limits the ability to share performance information for grid services and hampers fast dynamic simulations. In addition, motor stalling is usually triggered by a fault event and attributed to the characteristics of the mechanical torque of the motor, resulting in absorption of a large amount of reactive power during the stalling period. Further, this significant withdrawal of reactive power will deteriorate the dynamic voltage stability of power grids and cause delayed voltage recovery. Therefore, an in-depth modeling of the thermodynamics or mechanical torque is essential to study the impacts of the realistic torque characteristics of those behind-the-meter devices on power system voltage stability. This study developed a dynamic multidomain model for building HVAC systems, such as air-source heat pumps, to simulate their thermal and electrical responses to grid transients. The model can accurately predict power metrics with a mean absolute percentage error of 10%, by validating against with power system computer-aided design performance data. Case studies demonstrate the model capability of capturing the transient response to sudden voltage changes, rapid load fluctuations, and system shutdowns respectively. During a sudden voltage drop (30% for 0.1s), a fully loaded heat pump’s motor speed dropped, continued declining, and shut down after 3.6s, with severe power oscillations and a torque spike. A partially loaded unit experienced temporary oscillations but stabilized. Under higher building loads, compressor speed increased from 64% to 100%, with power and torque rising before stabilizing. In safety-triggered shutdowns, power decreased after minor fluctuations, and torque briefly spiked before dropping to zero.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simulating Magnetic Reconnection in ‘Two Ribbon’ Type Solar Flares

Magnetic reconnection is an astrophysical process where neighboring magnetic field lines, facing anti-parallel, are reconfigured. This reconfiguration results in built up magnetic energy being explosively released as it is being converted to plasma kinetic and thermal energies. There are various kinds of simulations used to simulation reconnection; our work begins with Athena++, a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation code typically used for astrophysical problems, and a reconnection specific code file. The resistive MHD equations are solved with Riemann solvers. There was an initial test run without modifying the code to understand the dynamics of the simulation. We expand on the original reconnection problem file by implementing a radiative cooling term specific to the corona. The radiative cooling is theorized to have an effect on solar coronal plasma and magnetic reconnection dynamics. The cooling term will be tested with various parameters and compared to the case without cooling to study these dynamics. The condensation found in only the with cooling case emphasizes the importance of implementing this feature and will be later tested with a thermal conduction term. We want to determine the parameter regime where non-equilibrium cooling will be important for the reconnection dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) Study

The Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) study analyzed the impact of a range of time-varying electric rates on the performance of a regional electric grid and the resulting costs for participating and non-participating customers. This analysis leveraged and extended the work of PNNL’s Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study. Five different rate designs were included: a flat volumetric energy charge, a typical Time of Use (TOU) rate, a dynamic energy (DE) rate (based on wholesale locational marginal prices), a dynamic energy and capacity (DE+C) rate, and, finally, a Block and Swing (B&S) rate that billed customers based on their average load profile at constant pricing, but used the DE+C dynamic price for load deviations from their average profile. These rates were analyzed in a large-scale co-simulation of an entire regional grid with a customer population representative of the current state. A large fraction (80%) of residential and commercial customers were assumed to participate in these time-varying rates with automatically controlled HVAC, water heaters, electric vehicles, and batteries. This study assumed no industrial sector participation. The DE and DE+C rates saw system peak loads reduced by 6-7%, while the large participation in the TOU rate case saw a significant rebound effect and a resulting peak load increase of >5%. The impacts to the annual and peak system demand impacted system wholesale prices and the overall grid operating costs. This cost structure determined the revenue needed to be collected from customers by each rate design. Participating customers on the DE and DE+C rates (located in one of the modeled DSOs) saw reductions in average annual electricity bills of 11-17% with average increases in monthly bill variation of no more than 13%. At such high participation levels, TOU customers saw 10% higher average annual bills (due to system-wide rebound effects) and average increased monthly bill variation of 16%. Residential owners of large flexible loads (such as electric vehicles) saw larger bill savings (17-20%) when on a fully dynamic rate. The presence of on-site generation (such as rooftop solar) did not appear to appreciably change customer outcomes. Customers on the Block and Swing rate did see 6% lower monthly bill variation (as intended) than the flat rate case, but at the expense of appreciable bill savings, which were only 3%, comparable to the savings seen by non-participants. Given this finding we recommend that additional research be conducted into how best various bill protection mechanisms can balance minimizing customer bill variation with providing financial incentives commensurate with the flexibility customers provide. We also recommend that customer outcomes be explored across a range of regions using current actual customer and system cost data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Prototype Modeling for a Light-Trapping Planar-Cavity Enclosed Particle Solar Receiver

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) systems present a promising avenue for affordable and reliable energy production. Solar receivers are key components that determine the efficiency and longevity of these systems. Particle-based solar receivers have emerged as a compelling alternative to traditional technologies, offering several advantages that address limitations in current CST systems. This is especially true as next-generation CST technologies target applications including electricity generation, thermochemical processes, and industrial process heat, many of which necessitate higher operating temperatures than current commercial molten salt systems. Molten-salt thermal energy storage (TES) systems, commonly used in CSP, face challenges related to freezing and corrosion. Particle-based TES systems, in contrast, do not experience these issues, as particles are stable at high temperatures, exceeding 1000 degrees Celsius. This capability allows for a wider range of applications, including those requiring higher temperatures for industrial processes and efficient electricity generation. A novel innovation in particle-based solar receiver technology is the light-trapping planar cavity receiver (LTPCR) configuration developed by NREL. The LTPCR design consists of small cavity-like structures using opaque planar surfaces, enabling efficient capture and absorption of solar energy. A high incident flux concentration at the cavity aperture is absorbed on the receiver walls, and subsequently transferred to particles on the inside of cavities. The particles flow through the system, forming a fluidized bed inside of the receiver panels, effectively capturing the absorbed solar heat. Air is used as a fluidizing medium in this process to enhance particle heat transfer and mixing. The effectiveness of this design lies in its ability to manage solar flux conditions and ensure high solar-to-thermal receiver efficiency. A 100-kW prototype is currently being tested at the King Saud University in Saudi Arabia to assess the receiver performance. A range of modeling analyses for the optical, thermal, and mechanical effects were conducted to assess the performance of the receiver under on-sun conditions. The solar flux resulting from the KSU heliostat field was modeled using NREL SolTrace software and produced up to 600 kW/m2 at the receiver aperture. The solar flux absorbed on the receiver walls was then used within a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to predict wall temperature distributions along with radiation and convection loss. A two-phase CFD model was developed for the fluidized bed of silica sand inside the receiver panels to predict local wall-to-particle heat transfer coefficients, particle temperature distributions, and outlet temperature of the particles. We have also conducted analyses to understand the thermomechanical behavior of these innovative enclosed light-trapping solar receivers optimized for particle heating. We used finite element analysis (FEA) to predict the receiver's performance using temperature distributions obtained from CFD and based on the resulting stress profiles, evaluated creep-fatigue damage with a goal of achieving a 30-year service life. Analysis showed a significant impact of the particle-to-wall heat transfer coefficients (HTCs) on receiver performance, with higher HTCs resulting in reduced stress and increased lifespan. For instance, when using Inconel 740H, increasing the HTC from 800 W/m2 K to 1400 W/m2 K increased the creep life from 4,000 hours to over 100,000 hours. This highlights the importance of understanding and optimizing heat transfer in the design of high-efficiency receivers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An analysis of physics limited dispatch of nuclear renewable integrated energy systems using deep reinforcement learning and dynamic modeling

Previous approaches to dispatching nuclear integrated energy systems (NIES) have focused on the profitability and flexibility of these systems to operate on energy grids with highly variable pricing. However, due to the complexity involved in modeling and designing these systems, there has been less emphasis on ensuring that these dispatch strategies are physically achievable. It is imperative to develop methods that allow the system to remain within the desired NIES operating conditions and perform this based on realistic limited forecasted information. This research employs next generation artificial intelligence, namely deep reinforcement learning (DRL), and a dynamic system model written in Modelica to find a safe and profitable dispatch strategy for a solar nuclear hybrid design. The DRL agent is shown to find a novel dispatch strategy that manages both power ramping and power levels while respecting operational limits. This DRL-based dispatch is compared to other dispatching strategies including an optimal design solution from mixed integer linear programming (MILP). It is found that incorporating the physics of such a tightly coupled NIES limits the profitability of the MILP-based dispatch strategy. As a result, the MILP solution overestimates the design’s generated revenue. In contrast, DRL significantly reduces the number of breaches of safe operational conditions during energy arbitrage while maintaining profitability. Furthermore, this work paves the way for a more detailed assessment of NIES profitability and could be used to aid operator decisions on future NIES projects.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗

Spontaneous formation of robust two-dimensional perovskite phases

The two-dimensional on three-dimensional (2D/3D) perovskite bilayer heterostructure can improve the stability and performance of perovskite solar cells. We show that the 2D/3D perovskite stack in a device evolves dynamically during its end-of-life decomposition. Initially phase-pure 2D interlayers can evolve differently, resulting in different device stabilities. We show that a robust 2D interlayer can be formed using mixed solvents to regulate its crystallinity and phase purity. The resulting 2D/3D devices achieved 25.9% efficiency and had good durability, retaining 91% of their initial performance after 1074 hours at 85°C using maximum power point tracking.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Probing the influence of ion-pairing on ligand-field excited-state dynamics

Exploration of the photophysical and photochemical properties of transition metal complexes has driven ground-breaking advancements in solar energy conversion technologies, including photoredox catalysis. While significant research has been devoted to understanding excited state properties of second- and third-row transition metal complexes, earth-abundant first-row metal complexes have received comparatively little attention in this context until very recently. In particular, the role of ion-pairing – which has been identified as a potentially significant factor for Ir(III)-based photosensitizers – has not been examined with regard to its influence on the ligand-field excited states that dominate much of first-row photophysics. A key challenge in studying ion-pair interactions lies in quantifying the extent and nature of ion-pairing, particularly in non-aqueous media where the vast majority of photophysical studies are performed. Cobalt(III) polypyridyl complexes provide an attractive platform to address such questions due to their demonstrated potential for applications in photoredox catalysis involving ligand-field excited states. In the present study, we prepared a cobalt(III) polypyridyl complex, [Co(4,4′-OMebpy) 3 ](BAr F 4 ) 3 (where 4,4′-OMebpy is 4,4′-dimethoxy-2,2′-bipyridine and BAr F 4 is tetrakis(3,5-bis(trifluoromethyl)-phenyl)borate) to probe ion-pairing in non-aqueous solutions. Specifically, analysis of data acquired from both variable-temperature diffusion ordered spectroscopy (DOSY) NMR and 1-D rotating-frame nuclear Overhauser effect (ROE) experiments allowed us to identify and differentiate between solvent-separated ion pairs in high-dielectric media and contact ion pairs in a low-dielectric solvent. Time-resolved absorption spectroscopy was then used to measure ground-state recovery dynamics under these varying conditions of ion-pairing, the results of which revealed an increase in excited-state lifetime for contact ion-pairs that we suggest arises from a reduction in outer-sphere reorganization energy relative to conditions which favored solvent-separated ion pairs. We believe this study demonstrates that one can leverage broadly available NMR-based methods to understand ion-pairing in non-aqueous solutions, which in turn can provide a microscopic picture of intermolecular interactions that can impact the photophysical properties of transition metal-based chromophores.

Ghosh, Atanu [Michigan State University, East Lans↗

Leveraging System Dynamics to Predict the Commercialization Success of Emerging Energy Technologies: Lessons from Wind Energy

The United States urgently needs to tackle the climate crisis while enhancing energy security and resiliency. The complexity of the U.S. energy system, with its interconnected elements, makes predicting future states challenging, especially with the introduction of novel energy systems like wind, solar, clean hydrogen, and advanced nuclear technologies. Modern systems engineering methods and tools can provide deeper insights into these dynamics and future behaviors. This research aims to develop a comprehensive model that captures the main elements and behaviors of new energy technologies within the existing energy system. We hypothesized that the market uptake of novel energy systems is influenced by multiple diverse factors, such as technological learning, availability of resources, and economic incentives; examined the history of electricity generation using land-based wind technologies; and developed a system dynamics model to investigate the relationships between capacity growth and influencing factors, both internal and external. The developed model yielded outcomes that confirmed the hypothesized dynamics of wind energy system diffusion through a quantitative comparison of installed capacity and highlighted the significant influence of resource availability, federal incentives (production tax credits), and technological learning on capacity growth and cost reduction. This research aims to support informed decision-making for investments in novel energy systems and aid in developing effective policies for technology deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗