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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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136 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Defect-induced displacement of topological surface state in quantum magnet MnBi2Te4

The topological magnet MnBi2⁢Te4 (MBT), with gapped topological surface state, is an attractive platform for realizing quantum anomalous Hall and axion insulator states. However, the experimentally observed surface state gaps fail to meet theoretical predictions, although the exact mechanism behind the gap suppression has been debated. Recent theoretical studies suggest that intrinsic antisite defects push the topological surface state away from the MBT surface, closing its gap and making it less accessible to scanning probe experiments. Here, we report on the local effect of defects on the MBT surface states and demonstrate that high defect concentrations lead to a displacement of the surface states well into the MBT crystal, validating the theorized mechanism. The local and global influence of antisite defects on the topological surface states are studied with samples of varying defect densities by combining scanning tunneling microscopy, angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, and density functional theory. Our findings identify a combination of increased defect density and reduced defect spacing as the primary factors underlying the displacement of the surface states and suppression of surface gap, guiding further development of topological quantum materials.

Lupke, Felix [Carnegie Mellon University (CMU)]↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Dark Energy Survey supernova program: a reanalysis of cosmology results and evidence for evolving dark energy with an updated Type Ia supernova calibration

We present improved cosmological constraints from a re-analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year sample of Type Ia supernovae (DES-SN5YR). This re-analysis includes an improved photometric cross-calibration, recent white dwarf observations to cross-calibrate between DES and low-redshift surveys, retraining the salt3 light-curve model and fixing a numerical approximation in the host-galaxy colour law. Our fully recalibrated sample, which we call DES-Dovekie, comprises ~1600 likely Type Ia SNe from DES and ~200 low-redshift SNe from other surveys. With DES-Dovekie, we obtain Ω m = 0.330 ± 0.015 in flat Lambda-cold dark matter (⁠ΛCDM) which changes Ω m by –0.022 compared to DES-SN5YR. Combining DES-Dovekie with cosmic microwave background data from Planck, Atacama Cosmology Telescope, and South Pole Telescope and the DESI DR2 measurements in a flat CDM cosmology, we find ω 0 = –0.803 ± 0.054 and ω a = –0.72 ± 0.21⁠. Our results hold a significance of 3.2σ, reduced from 4.2σ for DES-SN5YR, to reject the null hypothesis that the data are compatible with the cosmological constant. This significance is equivalent to a Bayesian model preference odds of approximately 5:1 in favour of the flat ω 0 ω a CDM model. Using generally accepted thresholds for model preference, our updated data exhibits only a weak preference for evolving dark energy.

dark energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanochemically responsive polymer enables shockwave visualization

Abstract Understanding the physical and chemical response of materials to impulsive deformation is crucial for applications ranging from soft robotic locomotion to space exploration to seismology. However, investigating material properties at extreme strain rates remains challenging due to temporal and spatial resolution limitations. Combining high-strain-rate testing with mechanochemistry encodes the molecular-level deformation within the material itself, thus enabling the direct quantification of the material response. Here, we demonstrate a mechanophore-functionalized block copolymer that self-reports energy dissipation mechanisms, such as bond rupture and acoustic wave dissipation, in response to high-strain-rate impacts. A microprojectile accelerated towards the polymer permanently deforms the material at a shallow depth. At intersonic velocities, the polymer reports significant subsurface energy absorption due to shockwave attenuation, a mechanism traditionally considered negligible compared to plasticity and not well explored in polymers. The acoustic wave velocity of the material is directly recovered from the mechanochemically-activated subsurface volume recorded in the material, which is validated by simulations, theory, and acoustic measurements. This integration of mechanochemistry with microballistic testing enables characterization of high-strain-rate mechanical properties and elucidates important insights applicable to nanomaterials, particle-reinforced composites, and biocompatible polymers.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

In‐Plane Anisotropy in van der Waals NiTeSe Ternary Alloy

Abstract The anisotropic properties of materials profoundly influence their electronic, magnetic, optical, and mechanical behaviors and are critical for a wide range of applications. In this study, the anisotropic characteristics of Ni‐based van der Waals materials, specifically NiTe 2 and its alloy NiTeSe, utilizing a combination of comprehensive scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), angle‐resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES), and density functional theory (DFT) calculations, are explored. Unlike 1T‐NiTe 2 , which exhibits trigonal in‐plane symmetry, the substitution of Te with Se in NiTe 2 (resulting in the NiTeSe alloy) induces a pronounced in‐plane anisotropy. This anisotropy is clear in the STM topographs, which reveal a distinct linear order of charge distribution. Corroborating these observations, ARPES measurements and DFT calculations reveal an anisotropic Fermi surface centered at the point, which is notably elongated along the k y direction, leading to directional variations in in‐plane carrier velocities. Consequently, the Fermi velocity is highest along the k x direction where the linear charge distribution aligns in real space and is lowest along the k y direction. These findings offer valuable insights into the tunability of anisotropic properties in ternary transition metal dichalcogenide systems, highlighting their potential applications in the development of anisotropic electronic and optoelectronic devices.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solid-State Syntheses, Crystallographic Spatial Disorders, Thermal Behaviors, and Bandgaps of Hybrid Organic-Inorganic Manganese Halides: A2Mn(Cl/Br)4 (A = NH4+, C(NH2)3+, & C3H4N2+)

By systematically optimizing solid-state synthesis via the concerted use of differential scanning calorimetry and in-situ variable-temperature X-ray diffraction, we report the discovery of four new hybrid organic-inorganic manganese halides A2Mn(Cl/Br)4 (A = NH4+, C(NH2)3+, C3H4N2+), with emphasis on how the organic fragment geometry, polarity, and electron-donating properties influence crystallographic spatial disorders, thermal behaviors, and optical band gaps. With a nonpolar tetrahedral cation, as in (NH4)2MnCl4 (P21/c, mP30) or (NH4)2MnBr4 (C2/c, mC180), the direct optical bandgaps (4.36–4.28 eV) are wider than those with an organic nonpolar planar geometry, as in (C(NH2)3)2MnBr4 (P21/c, mP300, 4.07 eV), or an organic polar planar geometry, as in (C3H4N2+)2MnBr4 (I41/a, tI384, 4.05 eV). Furthermore, the organic components affect the spatial arrangement and dimensionality of the resulting inorganic frameworks comprised of Mn(Cl/Br)6 octahedra, with varying distortions, or spatially disordered MnBr4 tetrahedra. These resulting trends, coupled with the systematic investigation into synthesis, and the motivation behind elucidating the nuanced role of the organic cation, altogether expand upon the phase-space of hybrid materials beyond perovskites and demonstrate the potential for a rational design of hybrid materials with tailored optoelectronic functionalities for advanced energy applications.

Lee, Shannon J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Magnetism and magnetoelastic effect in the two-dimensional van der Waals multiferroic CuCrP 2 ⁢S 6

Here, we report a magnetic and neutron diffraction study on the ground state magnetism and field evolution of single-crystal van der Waals multiferroic CuCrP 2 ⁢S 6 . The ordered moments align along the 𝑏 axis in the "𝐴-type" antiferromagnetic configuration with a spin-flop transition along the same direction. Field application along 𝑎 introduces a smooth transition to a fully polarized ferromagnetic state via in-plane spin rotation. These findings resolve the ambiguity of the ground state magnetization direction in CuCrP 2 ⁢S 6 and uncover its field responses, providing a firm basis for future magnetoelectric study. A magnetoelastic coupling effect connecting the interlayer spacing and the magnetic order was further revealed, highlighting the out-of-plane strain as an effective control knob for tuning magnetism both in this system and in related van der Waals magnets.

Guo, Jiasen [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2024

Copacabana: a probabilistic membership assignment method for galaxy clusters

Cosmological analyses using galaxy clusters in optical/near-infrared photometric surveys require robust characterization of their galaxy content. Precisely determining which galaxies belong to a cluster is crucial. In this paper, we present the COlor Probabilistic Assignment of Clusters And BAyesiaN Analysis (Copacabana) algorithm. Copacabana computes membership probabilities for all galaxies within an aperture centred on the cluster using photometric redshifts, colours, and projected radial probability density functions. We use simulations to validate Copacabana and we show that it achieves up to 89 per cent membership accuracy with a mild dependence on photometric redshift uncertainties and choice of aperture size. We find that the precision of the photometric redshifts has the largest impact on the determination of the membership probabilities followed by the choice of the cluster aperture size. We also quantify how much these uncertainties in the membership probabilities affect the stellar mass–cluster mass scaling relation, a relation that directly impacts cosmology. Using the sum of the stellar masses weighted by membership probabilities (⁠μ * ⁠) as the observable, we find that Copacabana can reach an accuracy of 0.06 dex in the measurement of the scaling relation at low redshift for a Legacy Survey of Space and Time type survey. These results indicate the potential of Copacabana and μ * to be used in cosmological analyses of optically selected clusters in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Methanol mixing−controlled compression ignition enabled via homogeneous charge compression ignition of dimethyl ether through catalytic decomposition of methanol

Methanol is a potentially attractive fuel for marine and off−road engines owing to its availability at bunkering and global distribution locations. Although methanol is well−distributed worldwide, its fuel chemistry and ignition properties make it poorly suited as a direct drop−in replacement for diesel fuel in compression−ignition engines. However, industrial processes are regularly used to convert methanol, via catalytic dehydration, to dimethyl ether (DME) over nonprecious metal catalysts. This chemical conversion can occur at relatively low pressures, temperatures, and catalyst space velocities, highlighting a potential opportunity to generate DME via onboard catalytic dehydration of methanol. DME’s fuel kinetic and ignition properties for compression ignition are much more favorable than those of methanol or even diesel fuel, but DME is more challenging than diesel fuel or methanol to pump, store, and deliver through conventional diesel fueling injection hardware. Thus, a potential opportunity exists to use the ignition and kinetic properties of DME, with the transportation and delivery advantages of methanol, in a methanol−fueled mixing−controlled compression−ignition engine. The present work explores performance, combustion behavior, and emissions reduction opportunities for methanol mixing−controlled combustion, enabled by a HCCI of DME that represents a small fraction of the total fuel energy that can be generated onboard via catalytic dehydration of methanol.

Splitter, Derek [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000174044047)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Filtering and Analysis of Multiplicities in Eigenvalue Spectra

Fine-grained spectral properties of quantum Hamiltonians, including both eigenvalues and their multiplicities, provide useful information for characterizing many-body quantum systems as well as for understanding phenomena such as topological order. Extracting such information with small additive error is #BQP-complete in the worst case. In this work, we introduce QFAMES (quantum filtering and analysis of multiplicities in eigenvalue spectra), a quantum algorithm that efficiently identifies clusters of closely spaced dominant eigenvalues and determines their multiplicities under physically motivated assumptions, which allows us to bypass worst-case complexity barriers. QFAMES also enables the estimation of observable expectation values within targeted energy clusters, providing a powerful tool for studying quantum phase transitions and other physical properties. We validate the effectiveness of QFAMES through numerical demonstrations, including its applications to characterizing quantum phases in the transverse-field Ising model and estimating the ground-state degeneracy of a topologically ordered phase in the two-dimensional toric code model. We also generalize QFAMES to the setting of mixed initial states. Our approach offers rigorous theoretical guarantees and significant advantages over existing subspace-based quantum spectral analysis methods, particularly in terms of the sample complexity and the ability to resolve degeneracies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Role of Amorphous Chains in Nanoplastic Formation from Semicrystalline Polymers

Semicrystalline polymers, e.g., polyethylene terephthalate (PET), release micro- (100 nm to 1 mm) and nanoplastics (up to 100 nm) [MNPL] when they are degraded under quiescent conditions. However, the exact molecular mechanisms leading to material fragmentation into MNPL are unknown. Here, we monitor the evolution of chain molecular weight and the MNPL production kinetics during hydrolysis of PET pellets. We find that only ~0.6% of the amorphous phase ester bonds are hydrolyzed at the onset of MNPL release. Then, by combining a random scission model with measured amorphous spacings, we estimate that only ~15% of the stress transmitters in the amorphous phase, namely, bridges and entangled loops, have failed by this point. Thus, spontaneous fragmentation of the semicrystalline nanostructure occurs despite significant intercrystalline connectivity. We resolve this apparent contradiction by proposing that fragmentation can only occur when progressive tie-chain scission causes the material to undergo the ductile/brittle transition. Mechanistically, we speculate that the internal stresses responsible for material fragmentation are caused by processing (i.e., residual stresses) and/or sample densification induced by chemi-crystallization. We discuss additional factors that may affect our analysis and thus require further investigation, such as skin-core effects, preferential degradation of stress transmitters and/or recrystallization processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Opportunities for HVAC + Phase Change Material Thermal Energy Storage in Buildings

Phase-change material (PCM) thermal-energy storage (TES) integrated with HVAC and domestic hot water (DHW) can shift a large share of building thermal loads. By flattening and shifting loads, PCM TES reduces peak electricity use, eases stress on local and grid infrastructure, and lowers costs. It can also defer costly upgrades to service panels, distribution, and transmission. Higher energy density relative to chilled or hot water storage makes PCM TES practical for small, space limited, and retrofit projects, while packaged HVAC-integrated systems expand cost-effective load shifting to commercial buildings that previously lacked options. Despite this promise, deployment faces barriers. This paper presents challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned from lab and field integrations of PCM TES with packaged HVAC systems. Key challenges include misalignment between default heat pump controls tuned for direct-to-load operation and TES charge/discharge objectives, PCM properties that diverge from manufacturer claims and evolve with cycling, and high integration and deployment costs with off-the-shelf products. These studies underscore the need for factory built, integrated systems that arrive as prepackaged modules with proven controls, reducing design and installation effort and delivering predictable performance across projects. The paper outlines steps to enable viable and scalable PCM TES HVAC and DHW systems, including 1) validated methods that can be used to characterize PCM properties and TES system performance, 2) supervisory controls that optimize charge/discharge scheduling, and 3) factory integrated packaging that eliminates bespoke field engineering.

Dutton, Spencer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust and tunable oxide nanoscrolls for solar-driven H 2 generation and storage

Hydrogen gas is a promising alternative to fossil fuels due to its high energy output and environmentally safe byproducts. Various morphologies of photocatalytic materials have been explored for high-efficiency H 2 production, for instance, quasi-1D nanoscroll structures that provide a larger surface-to-volume ratio. Recently, we predicted layer-by-layer formation of stable oxide nanoscrolls directly from dichalcogenide precursors, eliminating the need for costly formation of two-dimensional oxides for a roll-up synthesis of nanoscrolls. Here, in this study, we evaluate the suitability of those oxide nanoscroll materials—MoO 3 , WO 3 , PdO 2 , HfO 2 , and GeO 2 —for solar-driven photocatalytic H 2 production and storage. Using excited state theory coupled with Bethe–Salpeter equation simulations, we discern their electronic and optical properties as a function of interlayer scroll spacing and find them to be highly conducive for solar-driven photocatalysis. Additionally, using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations, we show that they are also suitable for H 2 storage as the nanoscrolls exhibit an effective trapping of hydrogen, even in the presence of defects and vacancies in the oxides. This work thus demonstrates the discovery of robust and tunable oxide nanoscrolls as materials for advancing solar-driven hydrogen technologies.

Chemical compounds↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heavy long-lived dark vector via a gluonic portal

We study a dark gauge boson Z′ that exclusively couples to the QCD gluons through higher dimensional operators. These operators are generated from integrating out of heavy ultraviolet resonances carrying both QCD and dark gauge charges. With SU(3)C gauge invariance, charge and parity symmetries preserved, we find that the leading effective operators are restricted to have the form of Z′GGG and Z′Z′GG at dimension-eight, which can naturally render the Z′ particle long-lived, and serve as a viable dark matter candidate. We investigate the phenomenology of these operators with both collider experiments and cosmological observation, without and with the assumption that this dark gauge boson plays the role of the dominant dark matter component. For an unstable Z′, we show that depending on its lifetime, it can be probed by various observables up to ultraviolet physics scale around 10 9 GeV. For Z′ being dark matter, we find that $m_{Z'}$ ≳ 1 TeV is consistent with the thermal freeze-out scenario. In contrast, in the freeze-in scenario, the extremely small couplings leave the relevant parameter space largely unconstrained by current experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gear Test Assembly - Experimental Testing and Analysis of Gears and Bearings - FY2026

The Gear Test Assembly (GTA) is an experimental test apparatus built and installed in the Mechanisms and Engineering Test Loop (METL) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). While designed to accommodate a variety of components intended for use in advanced compact in-vessel transfer machine, the focus of GTA been the testing of large radial spur gears. The performance of the components used in GTA motivates the choices made in the design, components, and material choices for the forthcoming METL test articles; the Gripper Test Assembly (GrTA), and the Bearing Test Assembly (BTA). To date, GTA has completed nine experimental testing campaigns and achieved over 21 million revolutions under prototypic sodium fast reactor loads and operating conditions. This report provides an overview and results for the two most recent experiments Campaign #8 and Campaign #9. `Campaign #8 was the first campaign to make use of a set of nickel alloy radial spur gears, made from Hastelloy C-22HS, and combined with heat-treated tapered roller bearings. The bearings and torque profile used allowed Campaign #8 to be directly compared with Campaign #1 where Inconel 718 gears were used instead. Campaign #8 attained 1,058,880 shaft revolutions within 23% of the 1,314,855 revolutions achieved in Campaign #1. These results demonstrate that the heat-treated tapered roller bearings show consistent increased lifetimes, approximately three times longer than for non heat-treated taper rollers, and that the particular material of the gear does not play a substantial role in performance. Similar to Campaign #7 where bearing failure resulted in fragmentation and transport of bearing material into the gear teeth led to tooth damage in the Inconel gears, a similar process led to the damage of the Hastelloy gears. Subsequent NDE analysis showed that the damage was only limited to the tooth surface and does not extend into the gear interiors. Based on the NDE reports, the Hastelloy gears can be reconditioned and put back into service for future campaigns as was done for the Inconel gears. Reconditioned Inconel 718 gears damaged in Campaign #7 were returned to service in Campaign #9 and paired with non heat-treated tapered roller bearings. In Campaign #9 a novel set of operating conditions were implemented whereby the gears and bearings were cycled between hot, submerged refueling conditions where fuel handling operations occurred and cold, dry, and inert conditions where the sodium was drained and the vessel was allowed to cool simulating long, ex-vessel storage of the fuel handling machine. A total of eight of these operating cycles were achieved before a bearing failure occurred after the accumulation of 475,692 shaft revolutions were achieved. During Campaign #9, one of the drive motors was damaged and over the course of a 240 day standby period, the entire GTA drive system was upgraded from a 480VAC system to a 240VAC system that provided the opportunity to consolidate wall-space in the METL facility and provide more space for additional test articles being installed in the coming year. The over 475,000 shaft revolutions achieved in Campaign #9 eclipses the previous record for lifetime of non heat-treated tapered roller bearings held by Campaign #3 of 392,000 shaft revolutions. Further analysis and future campaigns hope to shed light on the cause of this approximately 17% increase in lifetime.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational discovery of a tetragonal MBene phase: diamond-shaped boron lattices, viable MAB precursors, and selective CO 2 reduction

MBenes are a class of two-dimensional transition-metal borides derived from layered MAB phases. Here, we use first-principles calculations to predict a new tetragonal MB (1 : 1) MBene phase featuring a diamond-shaped B–B lattice and systematically assess its phase stability, synthetic accessibility, and catalytic performance towards the CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR). Four tetragonal configurations are benchmarked against known hexagonal and orthorhombic phases, and a multi-tier screening identifies six robust members (CrB, FeB, MoB, WB, IrB, and PtB). Exploration of the I4/mmm MAB space reveals 11 viable precursors, including the experimentally synthesized Ir 2 ZnB 2 , which validates our screening approach. CO 2 RR free-energy diagrams show that CrB favors CH 3 OH while FeB, MoB, WB, IrB, and PtB preferentially yield HCOOH. The corresponding limiting potentials are competitive with, and in some cases superior to, those reported for state-of-the-art orthorhombic and hexagonal MBenes. These findings expand the MBene landscape by establishing a tetragonal phase with structural, synthetic, and catalytic promise.

Lu, Linguo [University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Scalpel Scanning Probe Microscopy for Enhanced Volumetric Sensing in Tomographic Analysis

Controlling nanoscale tip‐induced material removal is crucial for achieving atomic‐level precision in tomographic sensing with atomic force microscopy (AFM). While advances have enabled volumetric probing of conductive features with nanometer accuracy in solid‐state devices, materials, and photovoltaics, limitations in spatial resolution and volumetric sensitivity persist. This work identifies and addresses in‐plane and vertical tip‐sample junction leakage as sources of parasitic contrast in tomographic AFM, hindering real‐space 3D reconstructions. Novel strategies are proposed to overcome these limitations. First, the contrast mechanisms analyzing nanosized conductive features are explored when confining current collection purely to in‐plane transport, thus allowing reconstruction with a reduction in the overestimation of the lateral dimensions. Furthermore, an adaptive tip‐sample biasing scheme is demonstrated for the mitigation of a class of artefacts induced by the high electric field inside the thin oxide when volumetrically reduced. This significantly enhances vertical sensitivity by approaching the intrinsic limits set by quantum tunneling processes, allowing detailed depth analysis in thin dielectrics. The effectiveness of these methods is showcased in tomographic reconstructions of conductive filaments in valence change memory, highlighting the potential for application in nanoelectronics devices and bulk materials and unlocking new limits for tomographic AFM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Semiconducting Electrides Derived from Sodalite: A First-Principles Study

Electrides are ionic crystals, with electrons acting as anions occupying well-defined lattice sites. These exotic materials have attracted considerable attention in recent years for potential applications in catalysis, rechargeable batteries, and display technology. Among this class of materials, electride semiconductors can further expand the horizon of potential applications due to the presence of a band gap. However, there are only limited reports on semiconducting electrides, hindering the understanding of their physical and chemical properties. In recent work, we initiated an approach to derive potential electrides via selective removal of symmetric Wyckoff sites of anions from existing complex minerals. Herein, we present a follow-up effort to design semiconducting electrides from parental complex sodalites. Among four candidate compounds, we found that a cubic Ca 4 Al 6 O 12 structure with the I-43m space group symmetry exhibits perfect electron localization at the sodalite cages, with a narrow electronic band gap of 1.8 eV, making it suitable for use in photocatalysis. Analysis of the electronic structures reveals that a lower electronegativity of the surrounding cations drives greater electron localization and promotes the formation of an electride band near the Fermi level. Our work proposes an alternative approach for designing new semiconducting electrides under ambient conditions and offers guidelines for further experimental exploration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗