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NASA NTRS1983

A nested-grid mesoscale numerical weather prediction model modified for Space Shuttle operational requirements

A nested-grid mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS) is tested over Florida for the case of intense seabreeze-induced convection. The goal of this modeling system is to provide real-time aviation weather support which is designed to fit local terminal operations such as those supporting NASA's STS. Results from a 58 km and a 14.5 km nested-grid simulation show that this version of the MASS is capable of simulating many of the basic characteristics of convective complexes during periods of relatively weak synoptic scale flow regimes. However, it is noted that extensive development work is required with nested-grid cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes before many of the meso-beta scale features such as thunderstorm downdraft-produced bubble high pressure centers can be accurately simulated. After these schemes are properly tuned, MASS can be utilized to initialize microscale modeling systems.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Lidar-measured winds from space: A key component for weather and climate prediction

The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substan- tially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncer- tainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone.

Baker, Wayman E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-latitude Ionosphere

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere are important tasks of US Space Weather Program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method, and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two of the main elements of such prediction scheme are: an appropriate geomagnetic activity index, and an appropriate coupling function (the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity). We have developed a new index of geomagnetic activity, the Polar Magnetic (PM) index and an improved version of solar wind coupling function. PM index is similar to the existing polar cap PC index but it shows much better correlation with upstream solar wind/IMF data and other events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. We investigate the correlation of PM index with upstream solar wind/IMF data for 10 years (1995-2004) that include both low and high solar activity. We also have introduced a new prediction function for the predicting of cross-polar-cap voltage and Joule heating based on using both PM index and upstream solar wind/IMF data. As we show such prediction function significantly increase the reliability of prediction of these important parameters. The correlation coefficients between the actual and predicted values of these parameters are approx. 0.9 and higher.

Khazanov, George V.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-Latitude Ionosphere-Basic Elements

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere is an important task of the Space Weather program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two main elements are a suitable geomagnetic activity index and coupling function -- the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity. The appropriate choice of these two elements is imperative for any reliable prediction model. The purpose of this work was to elaborate on these two elements -- the appropriate geomagnetic activity index and the coupling function -- and investigate the opportunity to improve the reliability of the prediction of geomagnetic activity and other events in the Earth's magnetosphere. The new polar magnetic index of geomagnetic activity and the new version of the coupling function lead to a significant increase in the reliability of predicting the geomagnetic activity and some key parameters, such as cross-polar cap voltage and total Joule heating in high-latitude ionosphere, which play a very important role in the development of geomagnetic and other activity in the Earth s magnetosphere, and are widely used as key input parameters in modeling magnetospheric, ionospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Lyatsky, W.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Heliophysics Science and the Moon: Potential Solar and Space Physics Science for Lunar Exploration

This report addresses both these features new science enabled by NASAs exploration initiative and enabling science that is critical to ensuring a safe return to the Moon and onward to Mars. The areas of interest are structured into four main themes: Theme 1: Heliophysics Science of the Moon Studies of the Moons unique magnetodynamic plasma environment. Theme 2: Space Weather, Safeguarding the Journey Studies aimed at developing a predictive capability for space weather hazards. Theme 3: The Moon as a Historical Record Studies of the variation of the lunar regolith to uncover the history of the Sun, solar system, local interstellar medium, galaxy, and universe. Theme 4: The Moon as a Heliophysics Science Platform Using the unique environment of the lunar surface as a platform to provide observations beneficial to advancing heliophysics science.

Lunar exploration↗

NASA NTRS2017

Gaining the most utility from our geospace observational system: Network analysis of total electron content as a means to understand space weather to the point of prediction

We present the first network analysis of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle dependent, high-latitude, hemispheric-specific total electron content (TEC) data. We examine network parameters to describe spatio-temporal correlations in the TEC data for January 2016. We find that significant network structure exists distinguishing the dayside and nightside ionosphere, and specific features in the high-latitudes (cusp/ionospheric footpoints of magnetospheric boundary layers, polar cap, and auroral zone), and that these features vary with IMF clock angle. In this brief summary paper, we provide proof of concept results and identify important areas of future research, providing a basis for the discussion of network analysis and machine learning approaches for space weather applications.

Malik, Nishant↗

NASA NTRS2008

Prediciting Solar Activity: Today, Tomorrow, Next Year

Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to space weather effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less fuel can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms. Predicting those events that will affect our assets in space includes a solar prediction and how the radiation will propagate through the solar system. I will talk our need for solar activity predictions and anticipate how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William Dean↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Sun to the Earth - and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics

The sun is the source of energy for life on earth and is the strongest modulator of the human physical environment. In fact, the Sun's influence extends throughout the solar system, both through photons, which provide heat, light, and ionization, and through the continuous outflow of a magnetized, supersonic ionized gas known as the solar wind. While the accomplishments of the past decade have answered important questions about the physics of the Sun, the interplanetary medium, and the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies, they have also highlighted other questions, some of which are long-standing and fundamental. The Sun to the Earth--and Beyond organizes these questions in terms of five challenges that are expected to be the focus of scientific investigations in solar and space physics during the coming decade and beyond. While the accomplishments of the past decades have answered important questions about the physics of the Sun, the interplanetary medium, and the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies, they have also highlighted other questions, some of which are long-standing and fundamental. This report organizes these questions in terms of five challenges that are expected to be the focus of scientific investigations in solar and space physics during the coming decade and beyond: Challenge 1: Understanding the structure and dynamics of the Sun's interior, the generation of solar magnetic fields, the origin of the solar cycle, the causes of solar activity, and the structure and dynamics of the corona. Challenge 2: Understanding heliospheric structure, the distribution of magnetic fields and matter throughout the solar system, and the interaction of the solar atmosphere with the local interstellar medium. Challenge 3: Understanding the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies and their dynamical response to external and internal influences. Challenge 4: Understanding the basic physical principles manifest in processes observed in solar and space plasmas. Challenge 5: Developing a near-real-time predictive capability for understanding and quantifying the impact on human activities of dynamical processes at the Sun, in the interplanetary medium, and in Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. This report summarizes the state of knowledge about the total heliospheric system, poses key scientific questions for further research, and presents an integrated research strategy, with prioritized initiatives, for the next decade. The recommended strategy embraces both basic research programs and targeted basic research activities that will enhance knowledge and prediction of space weather effects on Earth. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the Sun, the heliosphere, and planetary magnetospheres and ionospheres as astrophysical objects and as laboratories for the investigation of fundamental plasma physics phenomena.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NAIRAS Model Updates

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Aviation Radiation↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Driving of Auroral Precipitation: 1. Balance of Sources

The accurate determination of auroral precipitation in global models has remained a daunting and rather inexplicable obstacle. Understanding the calculation and balance of multiple sources that constitute the aurora, and their eventual conversion into ionospheric electrical conductance, is critical for improved prediction of space weather events. In this study, we present a semi-physical global modeling approach that characterizes contributions by four types of precipitation—monoenergetic, broadband, electron, and ion diffuse—to ionospheric electrodynamics. The model uses a combination of adiabatic kinetic theory and loss parameters derived from historical energy flux patterns to estimate auroral precipitation from magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) quantities. It then converts them into ionospheric conductance that is used to compute the ionospheric feedback to the magnetosphere. The model has been employed to simulate the 5–7 April 2010 Galaxy15 space weather event. Comparison of auroral fluxes show good agreement with observational data sets like NOAA-DMSP and OVATION Prime. The study shows a dominant contribution by electron diffuse precipitation, accounting for ∼74% of the auroral energy flux. However, contributions by monoenergetic and broadband sources dominate during times of active upstream solar conditions, providing for up to 61% of the total hemispheric power. The study also finds a greater role played by broadband precipitation in ionospheric electrodynamics which accounts for ∼31% of the Pedersen conductance.

Agnit Mukhopadhyay↗

NASA NTRS2012

Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

Fok, Mei-Ching↗

NASA NTRS2018

Extending Terrestrial Weather R2O/O2R to Space Weather at NASA's SPoRT Center

SPoRT (Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition Center)'s R2O/O2R (Research-to-Operations/Operations-to-Research) paradigm that has resulted in 15 plus years of success for terrestrial weather can be applied to space weather challenges. Given strong collaborations with NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), SWPC (Space Weather Prediction Center), National Weather Service partners and seed-funded testbed activity, there is an opportunity to establish a bridge between NASA research community and operational forecasters for near-Earth applications. Starting local with strong space weather group at MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) and MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast) with opportunities to strategically expand interaction to other groups generating space weather projects within NASA, university, and private sector community, using the Supercomputer for Satellite Simulations and Data Assimilation Studies (S4).

research-to-operations↗

NASA NTRS2003

Observing System Simulation Experiments to Determine the Potential Impact of Space-Based Lidar Wind Profiles on Weather Prediction

Observing system simulation experiments (OSSE's) provide an effective means to evaluate the potential impact of a proposed observing system, as well as to determine tradeoffs in their design, and to evaluate data assimilation methodology. Great care must be taken to ensure realism of the OSSE's, and in the interpretation of OSSE results. All of the OSSE's that have been conducted to date have demonstrated tremendous potential for space-based wind profile data to improve atmospheric analyses, forecasts, and research. This has been true for differing data assimilation systems, analysis methodology, and model resolutions. OSSE's clearly show much greater potential for observations of the complete wind profile than for single-level wind data or observations of the boundary layer alone.

Atlas, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2023

Is the Global MHD Modeling of the Magnetosphere Adequate for GIC Prediction: the May 27–28, 2017 Storm

Practical steps taken by the international community to reduce the damage to technological systems from space weather include the development of numerical models capable of real-time predictions of electromagnetic disturbances at the Earth’s surface. Here we examine the feasibility of a version of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) global MHD simulation code similar to that used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to predict the level of geomagnetic field variability, and consequently geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). We consider the contribution of geomagnetic disturbances to the bursts of GIC in the electric power line of the Kola Peninsula during the May 27–28, 2017 storm and compare the observations with results of the global MHD model. During the maximal disturbance magnetic field variations at East Scandinavian stations become more irregular, as intense Pi3 pulsations are superposed on the magnetic bay. These pulsations are not quasi-sinusoidal waves like typical Pc5 pulsations, but they are rather a quasi-periodic sequence of magnetic impulses with time scales ~5–15 min. During this period with elevated Pi3 activity very high values of GIC were recorded (variations >100 A) in the electric power transmission line. The SWMF modeling reasonably well reproduces the global magnetospheric parameters, such as SYM-H index or cross-polar potential. However, the magnetic field variability dB/dt in the East Scandinavia predicted by the modeling has turned out to be more than order of magnitude less than that observed. Thus, the version of SWMF with the grid used by NOAA SWPC still cannot adequately predict for the May 27–28 event the fine structure of the storm/substorm—Pi3 geomagnetic disturbances, and consequently the magnitude of the GIC that they drive.

geomagnetically induced currents↗

NASA NTRS2002

Better Weather Prediction and Climate Diagnostics Using Rainfall Measurements from Space

Progress in understanding of the role of water in global weather and climate is currently limited by our knowledge of the spatial and temporal variability of primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has recently demonstrated that use of microwave-based rainfall observations from space in data assimilation can provide better climate data sets and improve short-range weather forecasting. At NASA, we have been exploring non-traditional approaches to assimilating TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwavehager (SSM/I) surface rain rate and latent heating profile information in global systems. In this talk we show that assimilating microwave rain rates using a continuous variational assimilation scheme based on moisture tendency corrections improves quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and related clouds, radiation energy fluxes, and large-scale circulations in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) reanalyses. Short-range forecasts initialized with these improved analyses also yield better QPE scores and storm track predictions for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd. We present a status report on current efforts to assimilate convective and stratiform latent heating profile information within the general variational framework of model parameter estimation to seek further improvements. Within the next 5 years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007/2008. Based on what has been learned from TRMM, there is a high degree of confidence that these observations can play a'major role in improving weather forecasts and producing better global datasets for understanding the Earth's water and energy cycle. The key to success is to adopt an integrated approach to retrieval, validation, modeling, and data assimilation in a coordinated end-to-end observation-application program.

Hou, Arthur↗

NASA NTRS1978

NASA's role in weather prediction

This report examines the role of NASA's Office of Space and Terrestrial Applications in designing weather prediction programs. NASA's contribution relating to imaging, the study of wind fields and temperature profiles, and space systems is discussed. The extent to which the current NASA program is responding to the needs of the research and user community is discussed along with future strategy.

Rasool, I.↗

NASA NTRS2011

SEM and TEM Observation of the Surfaces of the Fine-Grained Particles Retrieved from the Muses-C Regio on the Asteroid 25413 Itokawa

Surface materials on airless solar system bodies exposed to interplanetary space are gradually changed their visible to near-infrared reflectance spectra by the process called "space weathering", which makes the spectra darker and redder. Hapke et al. proposed a model of space weathering: vapor deposition of nanophase reduced iron (npFe(sup 0)) on the surfaces of the grains within the very surface of lunar regolith. This model has been proved by detailed observation of the surfaces of the lunar soil grains by transmission electron microscope (TEM). They demonstrated that npFe(sup 0) was formed by a combination of vapor deposition and irradiation effects. In other words, both micrometeorite impacts and irradiation by solar wind and galactic cosmic ray play roles on the space weathering on the Moon. Because there is a continuum of reflectance spectra from those of Q-type asteroids (almost the same as those of ordinary chondrites) to those of S-type asteroids, it is strongly suggested that reflectance spectra of asteroids composed of ordinary chondrite-like materials were modified over time to those of S-type asteroids due to space weathering. It is predicted that a small amount of npFe(sup 0) on the surface of grains in the asteroidal regolith composed of ordinary chondrite-like materials is the main agent of asteroidal space weathering.

Noguchi, T.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Oh! I Slipped the Surly Bounds of Earth....and Ran into Space Weather!

Over the past decade the concept of space weather has been introduced and matured in both the scientific community and popular press. Likewise the concept of space climatology recently also is being advanced. Closely linked to these concepts are their impacts on ground- and space-based technological systems; one such system commonly mentioned is manned space flight exemplified by the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS). From a manned space flight perspective, space weather and space climatology have significant effects on the amount of radiation exposure received by humans in space from the ambient high-energy charged particles present in interplanetary space and trapped in the geomagnetosphere. Whereas the impact of space weather for most technological systems is usually discrete and well correlated in time, the principle impact of space weather and space climatology is to increase the probability of latent cancer formation in thetraveler cohort. In this regard, while space weather may be the dominating factor for a given mission, over the life of a long-term program such as the Space Shuttle or ISS space climatology is the controlling factor of latent cancer risk. Human radiation exposure enhancements associated with space weather disturbances has been a concern among scientist and mission controllers since the inception of manned spaceflight nearly forty years ago. This led NASA to develop, in conjunction with the Environmental Science Services Administration s Space Disturbance Forecast Center and the USAF/AWS, the Solar Particle Alert Network (SPAN)-the foundation of an initial U.S. space weather monitoring and forecasting service. Since Apollo, routine space flight operations have evolved to include the use of space weather and climatology data provided through a world-wide network of operational space weather data services to predict and recommend actions to minimize astronaut radiation exposures. NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) flight controllers use real-time space weather data to detect and assess the impact of solar particle events, outer electron belt enhancements, the formation of pseudo-stable additional trapped radiation belts, and the solar cycle modulation of trapped radiation belts and galactic cosmic rays. Energetic particle data from GOES spacecraft are automatically ingested from NOAA Space Environment Center data servers and used to drive a model for the estimating the exposure to astronauts from solar particle events. While adequate for current manned space flight support, the existing operational space weather support system requires improvements to address the anticipated evolution in both the character of manned missions as well as space flight operations management. Necessary space weather data improvements include: reliably available (near) real-time space weather data on a fixed schedule via redundant access methods that support autonomous data acquisition by computer systems behind enterprise firewalls; and rapid transition of promising research sensors into operational systems.

Golightly, Michael J.↗