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DOE OSTI2026

Extremely Metal-poor Galaxies in DESI DR1: Connections to Galaxies in the Early Universe

Extremely metal-poor galaxies (XMPGs), defined as having metallicities below 10% of the solar value, are considered possible local analogs to primordial systems and offer a unique window into early galaxy evolution. This study presents a large-scale search for XMPGs using data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1, systematically evaluating their resemblance to high-redshift galaxies. From a parent sample of more than 14 million galaxies, we identify 662 (556 new) confirmed XMPGs and 763 (666 new) high-quality candidates via the direct T$_{e}$ method. Our results reveal that XMPGs follow a distinct star-forming main sequence (SFMS) that is elevated and shallower than that of the comparing star-forming galaxies. Notably, at higher stellar masses (M$_{⋆}$ > 10$^{7.5}$M$_{⊙}$), the XMPG SFMS converges with the sequence observed in high-redshift galaxies by the James Webb Space Telescope, indicating that mature XMPGs sustain star formation rates comparable to their primordial counterparts. Furthermore, XMPGs consistently deviate below the local fundamental metallicity relation, mirroring high-redshift galaxy behavior. These findings demonstrate that XMPGs not only exhibit low metallicities but also preserve scaling relations characteristic of the early Universe, confirming their potential value as local laboratories for studying early galaxy formation processes.

Sui, Jipeng [Beijing Observ.; Beijing, GUCAS] (ORC↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New Window into the Baryon Cycle at Cosmic Noon with Line Intensity Mapping: Forecasts for auto- and cross-correlations in [CII]-158$μ$m, HI 21 cm, CO$_{J+1\rightarrow J}$, and H$α$ galaxies

Across the peak of cosmic star formation at $z\sim1-2$, inflow, processing, and feedback drive rapid changes in the spatial distribution and chemical composition of baryons in galaxies and surrounding reservoirs; this baryon cycle can be tomographically mapped by line intensity mapping (LIM) of atomic hydrogen, ionized carbon, and carbon monoxide. We present a simulation-based forecasting framework for detecting auto- and cross-power spectra between spectroscopic surveys of four such tracers at $z\sim0.5-1.7$ mapping the same deep field - TIM, EoRSpec/FYST, MeerKAT, & Euclid. We forward-model 3-D distributions for these tracers from magnetohydrodynamic simulations, directly capturing the two-halo, one-halo, and shot statistics without relying on analytical decompositions. We further detail a signal-to-noise formalism, tailored to LIM surveys with highly anisotropic geometries and Fourier-space coverage. We demonstrate that galaxy cross-correlations will be the dominant discovery channel for current-generation surveys. These instruments will detect the auto-spectra for CO and HI 21 cm and the CO $\times$ 21 cm cross-spectrum at modest S/N $\sim 1-10$, while placing upper limits on the [CII]-158$μ$m signals. [CII], CO, and HI LIM will be $\sim3-30\times$ ($0.5-1.5$ dex) more sensitive to cross-correlation with the Euclid survey, however, than their respective auto-correlations, constraining all three models of line emission at high significance (S/N $\sim 10-40$) within this decade. Finally, we formulate a staged instrumental trajectory with planned or reasonable improvements, including the as-proposed SKA-Mid. We forecast advancing the per-$k$-mode sensitivities of each auto-, galaxy-line, and line-line spectrum by several orders of magnitude, enabling new percent- and sub-percent level constraints on cosmology and the redshift evolution of star formation and the baryon cycle.

Agrawal, Shubh [Pennsylvania U., Dept. Math.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Primordial black hole dark matter: A quantitative parameter sensitivity comparison across formation mechanisms and particle candidates

Primordial black holes (PBHs) in the asteroid-mass window ( 10 17 – 10 22 g ) can account for all of the dark matter without violating any observational constraint, yet are routinely dismissed as fine-tuned. I put that dismissal to the test by applying three complementary sensitivity measures uniformly across a broad landscape: three noninflationary PBH production mechanisms, six classes of inflationary PBH models, and seven particle dark matter benchmarks, all evaluated against the same observable target. Three distinct naturalness universality classes emerge, determined entirely by the analytic structure of the abundance map rather than by the nature of the dark matter candidate. Biased-domain-wall PBHs, in their least model-dependent (free- V b ) form, have the same low sensitivity, Δ = 4.5 , as off-resonance weakly interacting massive particles and freeze-in particles ( Δ = 2 ), a sensitivity that, because it is constant over the entire parameter space of the construction, also coincides trivially with its own Wilson-normalized average within that parameter space (Section Definition and conventions), an equivalence that concerns only the space over which Δ is computed and is not a naturalness statement about the construction as a whole; a further reduction to Δ = 2 is possible only under the additional, independently motivated but not required, assumption that the domain-wall bias is generated by Planck-suppressed operators; early matter-domination PBHs occupy an intermediate tier alongside coannihilating weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), unified by a structural identity in which the sensitivity measure equals the logarithm of the ratio of the formation scale to the matter–radiation equality scale; first-order phase transition PBHs, once the more accurate super-exponential collapse probability is used in place of the single-exponential approximation, instead belong to the same highly sensitive tier as resonant WIMP annihilation and single-field inflationary collapse, for a structurally distinct reason; single-field ultraslow-roll inflationary collapse is severely tuned for a distinct reason: a double exponential in which the power spectrum amplitude is itself exponentially sensitive to the inflaton potential coefficients, on top of the exponential collapse sensitivity of the abundance map. My main conclusion is that the claim that PBH dark matter is generically fine-tuned conflates the worst case with a landscape spanning every naturalness tier. The Barbieri-Giudice sensitivity computed here and the Wilson-normalized measure of Iovino and Riotto answer distinct and mutually consistent questions about the same construction, a distinction I clarify within the two-layer decomposition.

Profumo, Stefano [University of California, Santa ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Medium-Range Structural Order as the Driver of Activated Dynamics and Complexity Reduction in Glass-Forming Liquids

Here, we analyze in depth the Elastically Collective Nonlinear Langevin Equation theory of activated dynamics in metastable liquids to establish that the predicted inter-relationships between the alpha relaxation time, local cage and collective elastic barriers, dynamic localization length, and shear modulus are causally related within the theory to the medium range order (MRO) static correlation length. The latter grows exponentially with density for metastable hard sphere fluids and as a nonuniversal inverse power law with temperature for supercooled liquids under isobaric conditions. The physical origin of predicted connections between the alpha time and other metrics of cage order and the thermodynamic inverse dimensionless compressibility is fully established. It is discovered that although kinetic constraints from the real space first coordination shell are important for the alpha time, they are of secondary importance compared to the consequences of the more universal MRO correlations in both the modestly and deeply metastable regimes. This understanding sheds new light on the theoretical basis for, and prior successes of, the predictive mapping of chemically complex thermal liquids to effective hard sphere fluids based on matching their dimensionless compressibilities, a scheme we call “complexity reduction”. In essence, the latter is equivalent to the physical requirement that the thermal liquid MRO correlation equals that of its effective hard sphere analog. The mapping alone is shown to provide a remarkable level of quantitative predictive power for the glass transition temperature T g of 21 molecular and polymer liquids. Predictions for the chemically specific absolute magnitude and growth with cooling of the MRO correlation length are obtained and lie in the window of 2–6 nm at T g . Dynamic heterogeneity, elastic facilitation, and beyond pair structure issues are briefly discussed. Future opportunities to theoretically analyze the equilibrated deep glass regime are outlined.

cancer↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Review of Medium-Mn, Low-Density Steels for Transportation Applications

Low-density steels constitute a broad and complex alloy space (Fe–Mn–Al–C) suitable for a variety of applications. In particular, there has been growing interest in duplex (ferrite + austenite) or multiphase (+ martensite, carbides) low-density steels as a lightweight, advanced high-strength steel (AHSS) for vehicle applications, spurred by extensive decarbonization efforts. Medium-Mn (med-Mn) (3 to 12 wt pct) steels with 3.5 to 10 wt pct Al additions have decreased densities, presenting an interesting opportunity for high-specific strength, intrusion-resistant, and energy-absorbing sheet components with reduced alloying contents compared to high-Mn grades like austenitic Fe–Mn–Al–C or twinning-induced plasticity steels. Compared to leaner med-Mn steels, the physical metallurgy of med-Mn, low-density steels (MMLS) is complex and distinguished by increased δ-ferrite fractions and austenite stacking fault energies, decreased martensite start temperatures, and modified phase transformation windows. Mechanical properties of MMLS are comparable to 3rd generation AHSS, attributable to the unique, multiphase microstructures, and the array of strengthening mechanisms that can be accessed. Despite this, challenges and unknowns remain with respect to their industrial implementation, and new processing routes may need to be developed. Here, this review aims to highlight the composition effects, processing methods, microstructural evolution, deformation behavior, and application properties geared toward manufacturing and performance, altogether assessing the potential of MMLS for transportation applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Crescendo beyond the horizon: More gravitational waves from domain walls bounded by inflated cosmic strings

Gravitational-wave (GW) signals offer a unique window into the dynamics of the early universe. GWs may be generated by the topological defects produced in the early universe, which contain information on the symmetry of UV physics. We consider the case in which a two-step phase transition produces a network of domain walls bounded by cosmic strings. Specifically, we focus on the case in which there is a hierarchy in the symmetry-breaking scales, and a period of inflation pushes the cosmic string generated in the first phase transition outside the horizon before the second phase transition. We show that the GW signal from the evolution and collapse of this string-wall network has a unique spectrum, and the resulting signal strength can be sizeable. In particular, depending on the model parameters, the resulting signal can show up in a broad range of frequencies and can be discovered by a multitude of future probes, including the pulsar timing arrays and space- and ground-based GW observatories. As an example that naturally gives rise to this scenario, we present a model with the first phase transition followed by a brief period of thermal inflation driven by the field responsible for the second stage of symmetry breaking. Here, the model can be embedded into a supersymmetric setup, which provides a natural realization of this scenario. In this case, the successful detection of the peak of the GW spectrum probes the soft supersymmetry breaking scale and the wall tension.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Bayesian High Entropy Alloy Designs Fabricated via Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Purpose: This project seeks to demonstrate a new high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique applied to creating new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments. High entropy alloys shift the design paradigm from being focused on a single principal element (e.g. nickel-based alloys) to target alloys that include high atomic fractions (X >10%) of multiple elements. These HEA materials can exhibit sluggish diffusion and enhanced corrosion resistance, ideal for potential applications in advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. Scope: The addition of multiple elements in high atomic fractions creates an enormous design space that cannot easily be investigated by traditional material design strategies such as designed of experiments (DOE). This project utilizes a Bayesian machine learning algorithm that has been modified to work with calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) software. This Bayesian algorithm reduces manual inputs and increase the likelihood of achieving an optimal solution. Compositional inputs to this algorithm will be assessed using existing material property models for high temperature strength and corrosion resistance. The target for alloy performance will be a 15% (~100 ⁰C) increase in allowable service temperature beyond heat-resistant stainless steels while maintaining or improving alloy cost and corrosion resistance. Haynes 230 was selected as a baseline, which is 57 wt% Ni with 22 wt% Cr 14 wt% W, and 2 wt% Mo as solid solution strengtheners. In addition to rapid design via Bayesian machine learning, the alloys were rapidly fabricated using a multi-wire arc additive manufacturing (mWAAM) technique which allows for precise control of alloy composition and assessing of alloy design “windows” to study composition effects. Build speeds for wire-arc additive processes are among the highest for additive technologies enabling rapid and reliable sample fabrication when compared to conventional methods such as arc button melting. The mWAAM samples will be rapidly characterized via instrumented indentation for room temperature modulus and strength and for elevated temperature strength via hot hardness tests. After being screened with hardness testing, potential alloys will be further evaluated with conventional microscopy techniques including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to assess agreement with modeling results. The most promising compositions will also be evaluated by printing full sized tensile specimens for mechanical behavior tests at elevated temperatures. Results: Bayesian machine learning of a single performance function was initially used to optimize five performance metrics: 1) single phase stability, 2) yield strength, 3) creep resistance (low diffusion coefficient), 4) freezing range (weldability), and 5) material cost. The single performance function was suboptimal as assumptions had to be made about the results while formulating the optimization. A goal-oriented Bayesian optimization strategy (Hanaoka, 2021) was implemented with CALPHAD for use with the five metrics above. This multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) enabled the design of NiCrCoFe alloys with V and W additions. A base composition of NiCoCr was selected as Ni provides a stable FCC matrix, Cr aids corrosion/oxidation resistance, and Co is a solid-solutions strengthener that also improves creep by increasing the activation energy. Fe helps reduce diffusion coefficients and cost. Finally, V and W were selected for their reasonable solubility and high atomic misfit to aid in solid solution strengthening. Cracking of the mWAAM specimens was an early issue, and the Easton solidification cracking model (Easton et al., 2014a) was selected for addition to the MOBO function. High performing alloys fabricated by mWAAM included Ni 28 Cr 25 Co 26 Fe 15 V 8 and Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 . It was observed that even after adapting the mWAAM process for W, the W did not fully dissolve. To fully evaluate the Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 composition, a cored wire (80-20 NiCr sheath/powder core) was manufactured and printed via WAAM, and HIP’ing was utilized to homogenize and densify the printed alloy. The V and W alloys produced met metrics 1 (solid solution), 4 (solidification cracking), and 5 (cost). However, an unmodeled mechanism of thermal stress cracking was identified in the WAAM produced materials, perhaps exacerbated by the lack of grain boundary strengthening elements (B, C). Conclusions & Recommendations: A high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique was applied to designing and manufacturing new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments utilizing MOBO and mWAAM. The developed process was rapid and effective in addressing the mechanisms included in the model. The lack of grain boundary strengthening element additions (e.g., B, C) was a simplification that likely produced thermal stress cracking that turned into a large part of the investigation. Additions on the order of 0.005 wt% B and 0.05 wt% C likely would have minimized thermal stress grain boundary cracking. Overall, the high throughput design strategy is promising for rapid design of metrics-driven alloys for advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. The MOBO and mWAAM process could be commercialized to accelerate metrics-driven alloy design. In addition, the cored-wire process utilized for scale-up is a promising high-volume process for WAAM alloy development and scale-up.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementing Superresolution of Nonstationary Tides with Wavelets: An Introduction to CWT_Multi

Abstract Tides are often nonstationary due to nonastronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a trade-off between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short analysis windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a MATLAB code that 1) uses CWT linearity (via the “response coefficient method”) to implement superresolution, i.e., resolving tidal constituents beyond the Rayleigh criterion; 2) provides a Munk–Hasselmann constituent selection criterion appropriate for superresolution; and 3) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time scales of days, and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s), and reconstruction(s); confidence limits; and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K 1 , S 1 , and P 1 ) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power peaking (with a 24-h period, like S 1 ) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify the impacts of high flows and a salt barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to nonstationary data. Significance Statement Ocean tides, especially in coastal and estuarine systems, are often nonstationary, in the sense that the mean and standard deviation of tidal properties vary over time, usually in response to some nontidal process. We introduce here a MATLAB code, CWT_Multi, that uses wavelet transforms to resolve both tidal species and constituents on time scales from a few days to months. Our code accommodates multiple scalar time series and has typical tidal analysis features like constituent selection and inference, plus two forms of uncertainty analyses. It is flexible, allowing the user to adapt analysis properties to diverse datasets. CWT_Multi is applicable to many problems involving time-variable tides, including sea level rise, compound flooding, sediment transport, and wetland habitat analyses. Application to vector data is a straightforward extension, but further development of our uncertainty analysis is merited. Because nonstationary tidal analysis is rapidly advancing, we also define the features of a “well-formed” analysis code.

Lobo, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Relative Importance of Forced and Unforced Temperature Patterns in Driving the Time Variation of Low-Cloud Feedback

Abstract Atmospheric models forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) suggest a trend toward a more-stabilizing cloud feedback in recent decades, partly due to the surface cooling trend in the eastern Pacific (EP) and the warming trend in the western Pacific (WP). Here, we show model evidence that the low-cloud feedback has contributions from both forced and unforced feedback components and that its time variation arises in large part through changes in the relative importance of the two over time, rather than through variations in forced or unforced feedbacks themselves. Initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) suggest that the SST patterns are dominated by unforced variations for 30-yr windows ending prior to the 1980s. In general, unforced SSTs are representative of an ENSO-like pattern, which corresponds to weak low-level stability in the tropics and less-stabilizing low-cloud feedback. Since the 1980s, the forced signals have become stronger, outweighing the unforced signals for the 30-yr windows ending after the 2010s. Forced SSTs are characterized by relatively uniform warming with an enhancement in the WP, corresponding to a more-stabilizing low-cloud feedback in most cases. The time-evolving SST pattern due to this increasing importance of forced signals is the dominant contributor to the recent stabilizing shift of low-cloud feedback in the LEs. Using single-forcing LEs, we further find that if only greenhouse gases evolve with time, the transition to the domination of forced signals occurs 10–20 years earlier compared to the LEs with full forcings, which can be understood through the compensating effect between aerosols and greenhouse gases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiative cooling and thermoregulation in the earth’s glow

Efficient passive radiative cooling of buildings requires an unimpeded view of the sky. However, vertical facades of buildings mostly see terrestrial features that become broadband-radiative heat sources in the summer and heat sinks in the winter. The resulting summertime terrestrial heat gain by buildings negates or overwhelms their narrowband longwave infrared (LWIR) radiative cooling to space, while the wintertime terrestrial heat loss causes overcooling. We show that selective LWIR emitters on vertical building facades can exploit the differential transmittance of the atmosphere toward the sky and between terrestrial objects to achieve higher summertime cooling and wintertime heating than conventionally used broadband emitters. The impact of this novel and passive thermoregulation is comparable to that of painting dark roofs white and is achievable with both novel and commonplace materials. Our findings represent new and remarkable opportunities for materials design and untapped thermoregulation of entities ranging from buildings to human bodies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulative Prediction of Solar Illuminance and Application of the Du-Sharples Model in Estimating Adapted Daylighting Metrics for an Urban Environment

The practice of daylighting in indoor spaces can significantly reduce electricity consumption and carbon emissions, improve human productivity, and enhance mood and cognitive perception. This work discussed the recent developments in daylighting science and practice, computed the periodic variations in average diurnal daylight levels for each month, quantified in terms of global horizontal illuminance and diffuse horizontal illuminance, for Kolkata, India, a city with tropical wet and dry climate, with two empirical luminous efficacy models of estimating solar illuminance, and assessed daylighting metrics with the Du-Sharples model. A program was formulated that could compute and generate daylight data with monthly-hourly solar irradiation data and the Du-Sharples model was utilized to predict dirt-corrected daylighting metrics for three glazing transmittance values and five elemental carbon deposition levels on glazing material. The highest monthly average global horizontal illuminance is recorded in April (64.05 klx for Littlefair model and 66.82 klx for Muneer-Kinghorn model) and the highest monthly average diffuse horizontal illuminance is recorded in July (33.23 klx for Littlefair model and 30.63 klx for Muneer-Kinghorn model). Further, the computed yearly average global and diffuse horizontal illuminance levels agree well with a previous study that applied the Perez model. Yearly average horizontal work surface illuminance level remained >1.5 klx for window-towall area ratio >30 %. The approach adopted in this work and the temporal variation charts of computed exterior daylight level data may assist building service engineers, architects, and indoor lighting practitioners in making informed policy decisions at different stages of building planning.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel Signatures Beyond the Standard Model: From Extreme Environments to Precision Measurements

Most of our universe is dark. It is dark literally—visible matter makes up only 5% of the energy density—and conceptually, as many outstanding questions remain unsolved. The discovery of particle dark matter would shed light on our dark universe and throw open a window on the highest energy scales. This research made progress toward dark matter and new particle searches in three ways. Extreme compact objects, such as black holes, neutron stars, and stellar cores, can parametrically increase the production rates of feebly interacting particles and yield observable signatures. Specifically, a process known as superradiance leads to exponential growth of the number of ultralight particles gravitationally bound to rotating black holes, and turns astrophysical black holes into particle detectors. This research broadened the scope of applicability of superradiance studies to particles with a wide range of interactions and masses, predicting multi messenger signals. When ultralight particles are produced as dark matter in the early universe, they can be detected directly in laboratory experiments. However, these feebly interacting particles lead to small signals that are inevitably difficult to tease out from backgrounds; their detection requires the theoretical development of unique signatures that can be searched for in low-noise experiments. Some dark matter particles could be detectable with thin film metamaterials combined with low noise single-photon detectors. This research develop the theoretical framework and supported experimental efforts for ambitious searches for a wider class of ultralight particles. Overall, the outcome of this theoretical particle physics program developed novel signatures of new dark matter particles, and thereby expanded the particle parameter space which can be explored with astrophysical observations and precision experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Astrophysical Neutrino Sources as Colliders

High-energy neutrinos arise from processes at large center-of-mass energies, offering a window to test physics at comparable scales or beyond those accessible in collider experiments on Earth. Here, we present a recipe for extracting two-sided bounds on the inelastic $pp$ and $pγ$ cross sections from neutrino point-source data, by independently constraining every astrophysical input (cosmic-ray luminosities and target densities) through electromagnetic observations or theoretical arguments. The cross section is then the only remaining free parameter. Applying this framework to the IceCube associations with TXS~0506+056, NGC~1068, and the Galactic Plane, to a stacked population of eleven X-ray bright Seyfert galaxies, to the ultra-high-energy KM3NeT event KM3-230213A, and to projected observations of ultra-high-energy neutrinos, we obtain constraints that span center-of-mass energies from $\sqrt{s}\sim 1$ GeV to $\sim 10^{5}$ GeV, some of which are well beyond the reach of the LHC and, for the $pγ$ channel, beyond HERA. Several of these bounds are more stringent than unitarity limits.

Argüelles, Carlos A. [Harvard U.]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Godiva IV Simulated Radiation Field Characterization and Variance Reduction

Godiva IV is a system comprised of highly enriched uranium alloyed with molybdenum in the form of fuel plate rings. The reactor, along with its predecessors, was designed with the unique ability to satisfy interests in the super-prompt-critical reactor operation space. Originally, the reactor was part of the Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility (LACEF) at Technical Area-18 (TA-18). The radiation field around Godiva at this facility was well characterized and understood. As a fast neutron system, the neutron spectrum in and around Godiva was close to a Watt Fission spectrum. The Kiva where Godiva IV was located at LACEF was made of thin, sheet metal walls which did not contribute significantly to the neutron spectrum. Following the transition of LACEF to the National Critical Experiments and Research Center (NCERC) in Nevada, Godiva-IV was moved from TA-18 to the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Part of this move brought renewed interest in radiation field characterization. The new facility introduced significant changes to the environment surrounding Godiva, and preliminary foil irradiation results suggested that the room contribution to the neutron spectrum was significant. Unlike at TA-18, a large thermal neutron signature was added to the fast spectrum from Godiva due to significant room return. A primary goal due to the additional complexity that the room return adds to the Godiva IV radiation emission spectrum was the development of an efficient Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) calculation capable of characterizing the neutron spectrum anywhere in the room around Godiva. A campaign of activation foil irradiations and analysis were completed to support the validation of the MCNP model. The modeling of these foils in MCNP can be easily done with a standard volumetric neutron flux tally. However, given the multitude of locations and reaction rates to be modeled, further steps must be taken to increase the efficiency of these calculations in MCNP. During this study, a benchmark model currently under development for Godiva IV was used. A qualitative assessment of the thermal neutron contributors was performed using spatial neutron distribution plots. Additional detail was added to the model based on the qualitative results showing the thermal spectrum’s large sensitivity to hydrogenous material. Neutron energy spectra was evaluated at discrete locations in the room around Godiva to quantify the relative contribution of various components. It was discovered that the concrete walls are the largest contributor to the thermal signature, with minor contributions from plastic components surrounding Godiva. Following these results, two different variance reduction techniques were implemented to improve the problem efficiency in these calculations. In the first approach, an F5 point detector tally was implemented in the standard Godiva IV criticality problem. The second approach involved a weight-window generator implementation with an F5 point detector tally in a fixed source problem. The weight window implementation reduced the runtime from 42739.55 minutes to 1803.34 minutes (computer time), compared to the F5 KCODE implementation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗