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Lessons Learned from Ecosystem-Scale Experimental Field Studies (Workshop Report)
Efforts to understand and predict ecosystem responses to environmental change require long-term, large-scale, spatially representative experiments and observations that capture natural variability, test predictive models, and generate transferable knowledge. Such studies are indispensable for unraveling the complexities of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to disturbances and evolving environmental conditions, while generating the data necessary for developing mechanistic models and predictive tools that inform decision-making processes. Having a rich history of designing and executing large-scale ecosystem experiments, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental System Science program convened a workshop in January 2025 that brought together leaders in the field to distill critical lessons from decades of experience in large-scale experiments. The workshop aimed to (1) provide an ecosystem experiment primer for best practices, thus ensuring a high scientific return on investment for funding agencies, and (2) offer a robust framework for the design and management of future research initiatives. This report synthesizes insights and experiences from workshop participants and is structured to capture the entire research life cycle, from goal setting and design to operations, adaptive management, team dynamics, collaborations, and the often overlooked aspect of decommissioning. By synthesizing decision-making and lessons learned across diverse research approaches, the report aims to provide a template of essential factors to consider when designing successful long-term, large-scale ecosystem experiments.
When Do Different Scenarios of Future Electricity Demand Start to Meaningfully Diverge?
Climate and population change are known to influence electricity demand, but what is the impact of uncertainty in climate and population projections on electricity demand in the United States (U.S.) over the next 30 years? This question has important implications for investment decisions in the energy sector, which are typically made using a 15- to 30-year time horizon. Simply put, if future climate and population scenarios do not lead to meteorological conditions and subsequent energy demands that are distinctly different within the first 30 years then, for the purposes of investment decisions, it may not matter which potential pathway we are most likely on. The Integrated, Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project has generated a wide, yet plausible range of 21st century high-resolution climate and population scenarios for the U.S. The IM3 projections span two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and two population scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5). For each of the climate scenarios, we reflect a range of climate model uncertainty by using boundary conditions from a set of climate models that are hotter and colder than the multi-model mean. In total there are eight (2 x 2 x 2) IM3 scenarios. This work explores a basic question: When do future climate and energy outcomes start to meaningfully diverge across the eight scenarios? The analysis is done on both the raw meteorology time-series from each scenario as well as a time-series of projected total electricity demand generated using IM3's Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. We also explore the spatial heterogeneity of the divergence signal to identify regions of the country that may be more or less path dependent.
Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States
An assessment of decarbonization pathways in energy models reveals fundamental limitations in representing factors that are relevant for practical decision-making. Although these modelling limitations are widely acknowledged, their impact on the deployment of individual power generation types is not well understood. As a result, the societal value from such generation types could be vastly misrepresented. Here we explore a wide spectrum of factors that impact offshore wind deployment in the United States using a detailed capacity expansion model. Many factors prescribe a large future role for offshore wind, yet this diverges from what models often show. We extend the typically narrow modelling context through high spatial resolution, several cost and transmission possibilities and various energy-sector policies. Further, we estimate offshore wind to constitute 1-8% (31-256 gigawatts) of total US generation by 2050. This wide range suggests an uncertain but potentially important regional role. Our expansive scenarios demonstrate how to address many limitations of decarbonization modelling.
An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region
Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.
Assessment of Storm-Associated Precipitation and Its Extremes Using Observational Data Sets and Climate Model Short-Range Hindcasts
Heavy precipitation, often associated with weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones (ETCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), can cause significant socio-economic loss. Here, in this study, we apply atmospheric feature trackers to quantify the contributions of these storm types in observational data sets and climate model short-range hindcasts. We generate a global hourly storm data set at 0.25° spatial resolution covering 2006–2020, based on the tracking results from TempestExtremes and Python FLEXible object TRacKeR. Our analyses show that these four storm types account for 67% of global annual mean precipitation and 82% of top 1% precipitation extremes, with MCSs mainly over the tropics, and ARs and ETCs over the midlatitudes. The percentage of precipitation contributions from these storms also show strong seasonality over many geographical locations. We further apply the tracking results to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) short-range hindcasts and evaluate how well these storms are simulated. The evaluation show that E3SM, with ∼1° resolution, significantly underestimates storm-associated precipitation totals and extremes, especially for MCSs in the tropics. Our analysis also suggests that model fails to capture the correct mean diurnal phases and amplitude of MCS precipitation. This phenomenon-based approach provides a better understanding of precipitation characteristics and can lead to enhanced model evaluation by revealing underlying problems in model physics related to precipitation processes associated with the heavy-precipitating storms.
Peridynamic modeling of cementitious materials for nuclear waste management
Radioactive and hazardous waste generated from fuel processing plants, nuclear reactors, and hospitals, requires effective management strategies. Cementitious materials are widely applied for these needs, serving as structural materials, reactive barriers, or waste forms. In these applications cracking poses a significant risk to performance, driven by inconsistent shrinkage of the components and the varying strength and permeability of their interfaces. Traditional modeling approaches face challenges in representing the complex fracture behavior of cementitious materials due to the reliance on spatial derivatives and difficulties with mesh generation. Here, to overcome these limitations, we employ peridynamics, a novel continuum mechanics formulation that uses integrals to describe mechanical equilibrium, avoiding discontinuities associated with traditional methods. Through incorporation of a bi-linear softening model and quasistatics, an experimentally validated model for Portland cement concrete samples was created. Mechanical parameters, including compressive strength and elastic modulus were validated and variation due to aggregate packing was evaluated. Additionally, sensitivity analysis of the peridynamic parameters to the bulk material properties was established. The results lay the groundwork for evaluating the impact of unique conditions of cementitious waste forms that can be assessed to improve the reliability of waste management strategies.
Multiscale maps of Active Layer Depth for Teller site Mile Marker 27 and Kougarok Mile Marker 80, Seward Peninsula, AK
Remote sensing maps of active layer depth derived from Unmanned Areal System (UAS) data. The UAS datasets were stepwise scaled until matching the AVIRIS-NG (Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer - Next Generation) and Sentinel-2 spatial resolutions. Using the field observed Active Layer Depth (ALD) measurement in combination with spectral and topographic predictors derivatives from DJI UAS imagery, we used a spatially explicit RF regression model to predict and map ALD across our study landscapes. This package includes maps for Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic (NGEE Arctic)’s Teller Mile Marker (MM) 27, and Kougarok MM80 (aka Mile 80) watersheds. The field, map data, and metadata are provided as geoTIF and text (*.csv) formats. These datasets are provided in support of Hantson et al., 2024 (accepted) “Scaling Arctic landscape and permafrost features improves active layer depth modeling”
An Improved Energy Deposition Model in MPACT and Explicit Heat Generation Coupling with CTF
The default energy deposition model in the CASL neutronics code MPACT assumes all fission energy is deposited locally in fuel rods. Furthermore, equilibrium delayed energy release is assumed for both steady-state and transient calculations. These approximations limit the accurate representation of the heat generation distribution in space and its variations over time, which are essential for power distribution and thermal-hydraulic coupling calculations. In this paper, an improved energy deposition model is presented in both the spatial and time domains. Spatially, the energy deposition through fission, neutron capture, and slowing-down reactions are explicitly modeled to account for the heat generation from all regions of a reactor core, and a gamma smearing scheme is developed that utilizes the gamma sources from neutron fission and capture. In the time domain, the delayed energy release is modeled by solving an additional equation of delayed heat emitters, similar to the equation of delayed neutron precursors.To allow the explicit heat generation coupling, the interfaces between MPACT and CTF were updated to transfer separate heat sources for different material regions (fuel, clad, moderator and guide tube). The results show that the distributions of the energy deposition between MPACT and MCNP agree very well for various 2-D assembly and quarter-core problems without TH feedback. The MPACT/CTF coupled calculation for the hot full power quarter-core case exhibited a reduced peak pin power by 2.3% and a reduced peak fuel centerline temperature by 17 K when using the explicit energy deposition and heat transfer. The new model also shows a maximum 100 pcm keff effect on assembly depletion problems and an increased overall energy release by 7% in a PWR reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) problem.
Industry Level Feasibility of LiDAR Data into Fire Modeling Using Fire Risk Investigation in 3D (FRI3D)
Many evaluation, assessment, and modeling tasks at nuclear power plants require spatial information this often requires physical visits to locations within the facility because the 2D or 3D schematics and current models do not contain enough detail or do not capture as-built and real-world conditions. These visits require extensive manual labor for not only the requesting party, but support groups such as security. LIDAR mapping is trying to solve that problem by providing very detailed 3D models for low costs. However, the use of these models can be very limited because either component reference information is missing and too costly to add, or there is no way to extract specific spatial data needed for other tools. This report presents Idaho National Lab's work with Environmental Intellect (Ei) covering two main efforts. First, to reduce the effort of "tagging" data in large 3D models. By using both existing plant database information, and artificial intelligence (AI) to find and read equipment labels. This research explores the ability of to provide a simple way for the user to tag items and verify plant data, capturing both the speed of AI and human verification. The second part of the work is the development of an interface for importing pieces needed for Modeling & Simulation. Analysis work such as that for fire, flood, or physical security all require spatial or 3D models in various levels of detail. This interface will allow for the retrieval of item location or boundaries, enabling the auto generation of models for varying tools. The application program interface (API) of the fire risk investigation in 3D (FRI3D) was used to test feasibility of exporting the LiDAR tagged spatial information. Outcomes from this work provide preliminary data to determine if the tools and methods could provide substantial industry benefit if fully matured.
The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset
Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.
The National Climate Database (NCDB): An Unbiased 100-Year Dataset for PV Modeling
In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for photovoltaics (PV) energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the downscaling method, a summary of the 100-year dataset from 2001-2100, and future extension of this research.
A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations
Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.
Current algebra approach to two-dimensional interacting chiral metals
In this study, we reinterpret the chiral U(N) Wess-Zumino-Witten (WZW) model at level k>1 in (1+1) dimensions as an interacting chiral metal in two space dimensions. In this reinterpretation, spatial translations along one of the spatial dimensions in the two-dimensional chiral metal arise from a generator of the U(N) symmetry of the WZW model. The WZW model at k=1 is equivalent to Balents and Fisher's free chiral metal. Here, the U(N) symmetry corresponds to the IR symmetry of a chiral Fermi gas with (half of a) Fermi surface, with N equal to the number of points on the Fermi surface. We argue that exactly solvable interacting generalizations occur for levels k>1. Importantly, these interacting chiral metals maintain the U(N) symmetry of the free system. We calculate two-point correlation functions of the single-particle fermion operator, the U(1) number density, and current operators in these theories for general k. We find that interactions (k>1) produce 1/N corrections to scaling of the single-particle fermion operator as N→∞ and renormalize the amplitudes of the density and current two-point functions. This construction illustrates the ersatz Fermi liquid proposal of Else et al.
A general mechanistic framework for cross-scale understanding of hot spots and hot moments in carbon and water fluxes
Semi-arid ecosystems, like those in the American Southwest, exert a massive impact on the interannual variability of carbon and water cycling. Unfortunately, these carbon and water fluxes are notoriously difficult to predict due to their high spatial and temporal variability, which is poorly captured by the current generation of vegetation models. Indeed, this region is exemplified by the ‘hot spots and hot moments’ concept, which states that small areas in space (‘hot spots’) and transient moments in time (‘hot moments’) exert an outsized influence on biogeochemical cycling. However, the factors that regulate these pulses in biogeochemical activity are unknown, as is their variability across space and time. These uncertainties severely limit efforts to better represent hot spots and hot moments in models. Here, we seek to develop a generalized method for detecting and quantifying the importance of hot spots and hot moments from individual plant to regional scales. Underpinning this method is our recently developed statistical approach for identifying hot spots and hot moments. By applying this method to semi-continuous measurements of plant water status, a depth profile of soil water potential, and ecosystem fluxes via eddy covariance, we will track the fate of water through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and identify the mechanistic drivers of these transient pulses in biogeochemical activity. Then, we will expand this approach across a broad network of Ameriflux towers, and apply a machine learning approach that will allow us to upscale measurements of hot spots and hot moments across the American Southwest and quantify their impact on carbon and water cycles. These products will allow us to identify hot spots and hot moments across spatio-temporal scales and will serve as crucial data sources for validating a new generation of models that can better capture highly dynamic carbon and water fluxes. The proposed method will be easily transferable across biomes and will serve as a framework for future research on hot spots and hot moments across the plant ecophysiology, biometeorology, and vegetation modeling communities.
ILAMBv2.7 benchmarking results comparing E3SMv2.1 land-atmosphere coupled (BGCv2LNDATM) and stand alone land (ELM) simulations with CMIP6 emission driven historical simulations
This dataset contains land model benchmarking results for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2.1 (E3SMv2.1), including outputs from both coupled biogeochemistry simulations and stand-alone land model simulations. These results are compared against several emission-driven historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Benchmarking was conducted using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package, version 2.7 (ILAMBv2.7). CMIP6 model outputs were sourced from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), while the E3SMv2.1 results were derived from raw model outputs. These outputs underwent processing steps such as time serialization, conservative regridding, and data standardization to ensure comparability. For spatial interpolation, the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) tool, ESMF_RegridWeightGen, was employed to generate regridding weights, enabling the transformation of E3SM’s native cubed-sphere grid to a regular latitude-longitude grid.
Modeling of the Advanced Test Reactor Using OpenMC, Cubit and Griffin
In the pursuit of the ability to perform multiphysics simulations of the Advanced Test Reactor, it is crucial to have a fast and highly accurate deterministic model. To achieve this, a contemporary two-step method is employed. The first step involves generating homogenized cross sections using OpenMC, a cutting-edge Monte Carlo neutron transport code. OpenMC offers excellent modular capabilities, allowing for easy component integration and flexibility in incorporating new designs into the model. The second step involves deterministic transport calculations, which are performed using Griffin, a reactor multiphysics application based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment. To ensure the accurate spatial resolution and assignment of material cross sections, a Cubit-generated mesh for the Advanced Test Reactor is utilized as an intermediate step between the OpenMC and Griffin models; Griffin utilizes the mesh for its finite element solution, while OpenMC material IDs are written to the mesh file to be used in Griffin material assignments. Additionally, a Python-based script converts the cross sections generated by OpenMC into the ISOXML format required by Griffin. Preliminary comparisons indicate good agreement between the neutron multiplication factors obtained from the standalone OpenMC model and the Griffin model, with differences of less than 50 pcm in the two-dimensional geometry configuration. However, in three-dimensional calculations, an unacceptably large error is found in the Griffin solution. Future work is planned to resolve this discrepancy.
Urban morphology and urban water demand: a case study in the land constrained Los Angeles region using urban growth modeling
The interactions between population growth, urban morphology, and water demand have important implications for water resources and supply in urban regions. Water use for irrigation comprises a significant fraction of urban water demand, and is potentially influenced by long-term changes in urban morphology. To investigate this, we used spatially explicit projections of urban land development intensity (fraction impervious area) generated from a 30 m resolution urban growth model for the Los Angeles (LA) region. Recent historical data on water use and high resolution landcover were used to establish relationships between green area, urban development intensity, and outdoor water demand. These relationships were then used to project outdoor and total water demand in 2100 using the urban growth model outputs. We considered two different population scenarios informed by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections for the region (SSP3 and SSP5), and three scenarios of urban development intensification. Our analysis is resolved for over 80 water providers in the region, from the urban core to suburban fringe, and highlights diverse demand responses influenced by initial urban form and water demand attributes. Assumptions about outdoor water use factors based on recent water supply data were found to be nearly as influential on future outdoor demand as the urban growth scenario settings. Compared to previous studies, our work is unique in coherently linking high resolution SSP population scenarios, urban land cover evolution, and urban water demand projections, demonstrating the approach for the LA region—the largest population center in the western United States.