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At least 91 records · Page 5

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in situ and remote sensing data sets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

Cheng, Yanyan↗

Compound Continental Risk of Multiple Extreme Floods in the United States

Abstract Understanding spatially correlated floods and modeling joint hazard associated with threshold exceedances across multiple locations is crucial for accurate estimation of continental‐scale portfolio risk. This work uses a non‐parametric copula‐based spatial simulator to analyze peak floods across the United States to derive the first‐of‐its‐kind continental portfolio risk estimates at the 10‐ and 100‐year return levels. We find significant interdependence in floods across the nation, revealing the recurring pattern of extreme events affecting the Northeast, Central, West, and Northwest United States in the same year. The stochastic simulator effectively manages high‐dimensional data and offers reliable uncertainty estimates for both spatially dependent floods and the aggregated flood losses at the continental level. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are identified as statistically significant tele‐connectors of aggregate loss. This research aims to advance the understanding of compound continental flood hazard and the potential large‐scale climate teleconnections that lead to such compound floods.

Geology↗

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

The intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change poses a threat to aging and under-designed water infrastructure systems which cannot adequately manage intense storm events. Developing a comprehensive plan for managing rain-driven flooding events is challenging due to uncertainties in the magnitude and frequency of future storm events and conflicting stakeholder objectives. In the City of Baltimore, Maryland, stormwater infrastructure is struggling to keep up with rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding events, which regularly damage housing and disrupt transportation for residents. In this study, a hybrid of community engagement, numerical modeling, and artificial intelligence techniques are employed to explore prospective urban flooding adaptations. Community engagement drives the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed. The model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data from the City, high-resolution spatial data, insights from local public works experts, and the lived experiences of City residents. This co-developed model simulates adaptations of interest to stakeholders in the city, including green and grey infrastructure and operational management strategies. Stormwater management scenarios focused on inlet cleaning and spatially concentrated green infrastructure are found to be the most effective in reducing flood depths in community priority locations. Together, these adaptations can reduce the duration of intersection inundation by more than twenty minutes, allowing for quicker emergency response and restoration of typical transportation systems. Future work will combine this community engaged flooding model with the Deep Uncertainties Pathways framework to explore tradeoffs between adaptations and develop dynamic adaptations which align with community objectives, enhance climate resilience in Baltimore, and can be adjusted in response to changing future conditions.

Ava, Spangler [Pennsylvania State University]↗

Contact patterns in wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) from GPS tracking reveal spatial and temporal dynamics of social behaviour

Wild pig ( Sus scrofa Linnaeus, 1758) social behaviour affects disease transmission and landscape-level population management. Recent research has incorporated analysis of social structure to better understand the risk of disease transmission in wild pigs, although the relationship between overall social structure of wild pigs remains unclear. Here, we seek to improve understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of wild pig social structure and contact rates to better inform management strategies. Using GPS tracking data, we measured home range overlap, and estimated contact rates of wild pigs at four study sites in the southern USA to identify pairwise social associations (i.e., contacts) based on synchronous movement. Contact rate was strongly associated with home range overlap, but exhibited substantial variation, especially at moderate levels of home range overlap. We found that female–female dyads had higher contact rates and longer duration phases of social association compared to female–male and male–male dyads. We found male–male dyads tended to experience social associations farther from their home range centers than female–female or female–male dyads. Social associations between wild pig dyads are highly dynamic in their spatial and temporal structure. Further, dyads with strong social associations still experience substantial time apart. Our findings highlight the challenges of predicting spatial and social associations in wild pig social pairs due to their dynamic social structure over space and time.

McIlraith, Jack R.↗

Airborne hyperspectral imaging of cover crops through radiative transfer process-guided machine learning

Cover cropping between cash crop growing seasons is a multifunctional conservation practice. Timely and accurate monitoring of cover crop traits, notably aboveground biomass and nutrient content, is beneficial to agricultural stakeholders to improve management and understand outcomes. Currently, there is a scarcity of spatially and temporally resolved information for assessing cover crop growth. Remote sensing has a high potential to fill this need, but conventional empirical regression operated with coarse-resolution multispectral data has large uncertainties. Therefore, this study utilized airborne hyperspectral imaging techniques and developed new process-guided machine learning approaches (PGML) for cover crop monitoring. Specifically, we deployed an airborne hyperspectral system covering visible to shortwave-infrared wavelengths (400–2400 nm) to acquire high spatial (0.5 m) and spectral (3–5 nm) resolution reflectance over 23 cover crop fields across Central Illinois in March and April of 2021. Airborne hyperspectral surface reflectance with high spectral and spatial resolution can be well matched with field data to quantify cover crop traits. Furthermore, the PGML models were pre-trained by synthetic data from soil-vegetation radiative transfer modeling (one million records), and then fine-tuned with field data of cover crop biomass and nutrient content. Results show that airborne hyperspectral data with PGML can achieve high accuracy to predict cover crop aboveground biomass (R 2 = 0.72, relative RMSE = 15.16%) and nitrogen content (R 2 = 0.69, relative RMSE = 16.59%) through leave-one-field-out cross-validation. Unlike the pure data-driven approach (e.g., partial least-squares regression), PGML incorporated radiative transfer knowledge and obtained higher predictive performance with fewer field data. Meanwhile, with field data for model fine-tuning, PGML predicted biomass more accurately than the inversion of radiative transfer models. Here we also found that the red edge has a high contribution in quantifying aboveground biomass and nitrogen content, followed by green and shortwave spectra. This study demonstrated the first attempt of utilizing hyperspectral remote sensing to accurately quantify cover crop traits. We highlight the strength of PGML in exploiting sensing data to quantify ecosystem variables to advance agroecosystem monitoring for sustainable agricultural management.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Facets of hydro power and future trends in a Nordic Context

Hydropower technologies bolster high penetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) in the net zero emissions scenarios. Nevertheless, there are various challenges to meeting the ambitious goal, such as stability, reliability, resiliency, security, lack of reactive power, voltage support and inertia, large-scale storage deployment and coordination, interconnectedness, demand-side response, higher thermal cycles with increased start/stops, and inadequate Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for system-wise VRE integration and profitability. This survey conducts a bottom-up analysis to unveil the opportunities to utilize hydropower facilities and disentangle the nested problem for intertwining design features, control algorithms, operation, optimization approaches, incentives, services, and market mechanisms using a three-pillar framework perspective: grid owners, power producers, and machine designers. The survey identified emerging trends in real-time and capacity markets, flexible power systems, and enhanced grid capabilities, including advanced voltage support and updated grid codes. These developments present significant opportunities for hydropower, such as achieving super-flexibility through hybridization, expanded reactive power capabilities, and advanced operational modes like a synchronous condenser and power adequator functionalities. These opportunities require novel design philosophies — including new winding, stator, and rotor configurations, optimized ventilation, and active cooling systems — to enhance performance under stressed grid and climate conditions. Finally, integrating climate and energy models for multi-basin optimization with finer spatial and temporal granularity enhances the planning accuracy for water management of hydropower while addressing environmental challenges. The review delivers helpful prospective suggestions and tools that would serve researchers, power engineers, and stakeholders in making decisions about hydropower technologies and services in 2050 and beyond.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Improving the Performance of Integrated Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop and Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulations

This paper introduces a novel multirate cosimulation architecture that overcomes previous challenges integrating faster real-time, microseconds-scale, power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) with larger scale but slower, real-time, seconds-scale, quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation. Specifically, an intermediate reduced-equivalent electromagnetic transient (EMT) model duplicates the key power system topology to capture high-speed dynamics and converge hardware-power system interactions between QSTS updates. Exchanging multidimensional parameter vectors (loads, control status, etc.) between the QSTS and EMT models enables capturing the interactions of the rich, high-node-count (thousands of electrical nodes) QSTS model with the hardware. This architecture offers full spatial resolution from QSTS, including individual load dynamics, actual distribution management system controls, and nodal voltages. Simultaneously, the intermediate EMT model provides more detailed high-speed transients of key distributed energy resource hardware interactions. In addition, we use careful PHIL interface design and the exchange of complex power data, rather than current, to further improve performance. This cosimulation architecture is demonstrated by testing a simulated distribution system with an interconnected 500-kVA advanced photovoltaic (PV) inverter in PHIL. In conclusion, the architecture successfully captured PV local volt-volt ampere reactive (volt-VAR) control interactions with the larger network under time-varying electrical and weather conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Strategy to Develop a Control Scheme for Core Thermal Performance Optimization

This report outlines a three-year research plan for optimizing reactor core thermal performance through use of a Digital Twin (DT) model and a set of neutron detectors to correspondingly adapt the reactor control strategy. It identifies reactor features and achievable neutron measurements that factor into this optimization task. It considers spatial effects that are important and how they can be managed by a real-time algorithm that controls reactivity actuators. The report presents a set of tasks, along with corresponding methods, for accomplishing this objective. The final task in this set is to validate the combined optimization procedure in the Purdue University’s PUR-1 reactor, for which we have an agreement of understanding. Additionally, we describe an alternative approach for overcoming some of the limitations inherent in the above approach, which includes the computational costs of high-fidelity simulations and achievable integration of neutron measurements into the DT. The proposed algorithms lower the technology readiness level (TRL) of the overall approach as some additional analysis and the development of a new neutron detector concept are necessary. In particular, a sensor measuring the gradient of the neutron flux is required, and the prototype is expected to be validated in the PUR-1 reactor. The potential benefits and the opportunity to significantly push forward the state-of-the-art make this approach worthy of further exploration in the upcoming years.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Building partnerships for development of sustainable energy systems with atmospheric measurements

Atmospheric dynamics often play a critical role in the sustainability and reliability of diverse forms of energy production. This is especially true for the growing number of renewable energy deployments that harness aspects of the environment for power production. While the University of Memphis has a strong research background in energy systems, we have little experience working with the Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division (EESSD) and their associated User Facilities. Of particular interest to us is the Atmospheric Science Research and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility to address surface-boundary layer interactions and physical phenomena. One of the major challenges for understanding and developing energy systems and management platforms is accurate modeling/forecasting of atmospheric conditions across disparate spatial and temporal scales. These conditions are often required to understand the lowest levels of the atmospheric boundary layer, but are also important to understand higher atmospheric conditions where aerosols affect cloud development. The objective of this work was to develop partnerships with national laboratories for collaboration on environmental science and its intersection with sustainable energy systems, as well as to leverage the ARM user facility data repositories to enhance our research capabilities in energy systems and their inter-dependence on environmental systems for future engagement with EESSD. Specifically, we accomplished these objectives by (1) developing collaborations with Oakridge National Laboratory ARM Data Science and Integration Group which resulted in student internships, (2) employed ARM data to develope modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer optical turbulence, and (3) optimally-sized large-scale renewable energy systems and their associated energy storage systems with ARM repository data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

BOXKIT

SF-23-067 BoxKit is a library that provides building blocks to parallelize and scale data science, high performance computing, and machine learning applications for block-structured datasets. Spatial data from simulations and experiments can be accessed and managed using tools available in this library when working with more data analysis oriented packages like SciKit (https://github.com/scikit-learn/scikit-learn) and FlowNet (https://github.com/NVIDIA/flownet2-pytorch)

DHRUV, AKASH↗

Floating Photovoltaic Technical Potential: A Novel Geospatial Approach on Federally Controlled Reservoirs in the United States

Floating photovoltaic generation is a rapidly expanding sector of the solar energy industry, and understanding the quantity that can feasibly be installed is a crucial step to understand its role in future energy systems. This paper presents a novel spatially explicit methology of FPV potential for federally owned and managed reservoirs in the United States that uses site-specific attributes of reservoirs to estimate available area and potential generation capacity. The analysis finds that the proportion reservoir area that is found to be available for FPV development is similar to assumed values used in previous research on average, however there is a wide variability in this proportion on a site by site basis. Potential FPV generation capacity on these reservoirs is estimated to be in the range of 861 to 1,042 GWdc depending on input assumptions, likely representing a significant portion of future US solar generation needs. This work represents an advancement in methods used to estimate FPV potential that presents many natural extensions for further research.

floating solar↗

Scenario Planning Management Actions to Restore Cold Water Stream Habitat: Comparing Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling Approaches

ABSTRACT Under the United States Clean Water Act, states are required to periodically assess state waters to determine compliance with water quality criteria (including temperature) and then to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for impaired waters as necessary to bring them into compliance. We compared the performance of mechanistic stream temperature models (HeatSource, QUAL2K, and QUAL2Kw) applied to the mainstem of three TMDL watersheds (Middle Fork John Day, OR; Wind River, WA; South Fork Nooksack, WA) with that of spatial stream network (SSN) models applied to the full watersheds and used these to evaluate the potential effectiveness of restoration strategies. SSN models performed well with slightly lesser accuracy (RMSE = 0.47–0.87) for mainstem predictions than mechanistic models (RMSE = 0.4) but provided additional benefits to inform management, including information on spatial and temporal heterogeneity of restoration effectiveness throughout the watershed. Of the four scenarios considered (restoration of riparian zones to potential natural vegetation, channel narrowing, increasing flow by restricting irrigation withdrawals, and combined applications), riparian zone restoration was consistently the most effective in reducing temperatures at the outlet, mainstem, and throughout the watersheds. Predicted restoration effectiveness for thermal regimes varied significantly both within and among watersheds. A focus on water quality criteria exceedance only at the watershed outlet or along the mainstem reach can obscure knowledge of restoration potential for fish habitat in tributaries and headwaters, potential for creation of thermal refuge areas along the mainstem critical for maintaining migration corridors, and thermal regime heterogeneity across space and time.

Fuller, M. R.↗

Linking habitat suitability with a longleaf pine-hardwood model: Building a species-predictive fire-land management framework

Active management of fire-dependent ecosystems for specific species leads to complex tradeoffs, which affect conservation outcomes to other species. Therefore a multi-species evaluation of management actions is required. Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) can help in predicting the likelihood of species occurrence using corresponding environmental variables and empirical relationships that link occurrence with specific environmental conditions. Incorporating multiple species into HSMs and relating them to habitat dynamics is crucial for ecosystems that require active management with prescribed fire. To address this issue, we developed multi-species HSM driven within an existing population model of the longleaf pine-hardwood ecosystem to assess the suitability of an ecosystem given different fire management strategies and environmental conditions. The population model used in this study provides spatial and temporal changes of longleaf pine-hardwood habitat structure in response to fire. These habitat values are used by the HSM to calculate habitat suitability for three threatened and endangered faunal species of this ecosystem, which all thrive with frequent fire, but have unique habitat requirements. Transient habitat conditions are traced to predict longleaf pine ecosystem trajectories under various management strategies, thereby evaluating current land management actions, such as thinning or prescribed fire frequencies. We tested a suite of environmental conditions to emphasize the sensitivity of the species to different fire management actions. The results of our modeling suggest that maximum suitable habitat for all three species can be achieved with fire frequency occurring at approximately once every three years. The modeling results support current management actions and provide a new habitat assessment tool that incorporates ecological factors for multiple species, thus providing for habitat optimization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding and Improving Energy Efficiency of Regional Mobility Systems Leveraging System-Level Data

Increased congestion required urban Americans to travel 6.8 billion hours more and purchase 3.1 billion gallons of fuel for a congestion cost of $\$$153 billion, according to the 2019 Urban Mobility Report. How to effectively manage the regional mobility system and improve the energy efficiency presents a big challenge to public agencies. Recent years have witnessed massive multi-jurisdictional multi-modal system-level data from various sources, which provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve the mobility system and its energy efficiency. However, implications of system-level data for mobility and energy efficiency are unclear. Those system-level data sets are siloed, spatially and temporally sparse, biased, not unified, and lacking of insights for system management. Consequently, there is a real need to acquire, fuse, mine and learn from multi-source system-level data to prepare public agencies to deal more effectively with large-scale energy efficiency modeling, management and planning. This project proposes to intensively review inexpensive, replicable and openly-accessible data from multi-modal systems, develop a data-driven system-level modeling framework enabled and validated by data, identify the energy inefficiencies of mobility systems from infrastructure, vehicles, passenger systems, and quantify the benefits of system-level strategies to improve mobility/energy efficiency. In addition, this research develops models to effectively estimate energy consumption and emissions from various types of vehicles on the roadway networks, with high granularity and high fidelity. Traditional models often heavily rely on aggregated infrastructure or vehicle/passenger data, for example, the census survey, land-use, and traffic counts of one or several classes, which may lead to research gaps considering the emerging vehicle technologies. Those models do not contain individual vehicular information. We propose an integrated data-driven method that combines multiple network modeling components, featuring the utilization of state-wide vehicle registration data. The additional vehicle registration data improve the model performance, and produce high-resolution vehicle-specific estimates of emissions and network performance metrics. Two case studies on the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia regional network show that the proposed method can efficiently and effectively estimate the emissions of a large-scale network, and provide valuable information for evaluating common management strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Satellite remote sensing for environmental sustainable development goals: A review of applications for terrestrial and marine protected areas

With few years left to achieve the vital United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), member nations must urgently leverage technological advancements in environmental monitoring to succeed. Remote sensing now provides decades of global observations at a variety of spatio-temporal scales and a litany of data products to guide comprehensive measures for climate action, and aquatic and terrestrial biota preservation. Protected areas, such as national parks and wildlife preserves, represent largely untapped resources for both applying robust conservation measures and testing ambitious new approaches to sustainable development that could jumpstart the much-needed adoption of strategies to efficiently pursue global sustainability. This review summarizes recent demonstrated utilities of remotely sensed data applied to protected areas for research related to SDG goals 13, 14, and 15: “Climate Action”, “Life below Water”, and “Life on Land”. We identify successful uses of such data for each SDG, identify areas for improvement, and provide recommendations from the literature on how to expand what others have done to achieve lofty goals with global impact. We demonstrate that remote sensing provides a valuable tool for achieving SDGs as it facilitates monitoring vegetation health, water quality and condition, and climate variables at large spatial and fine temporal scales, while also evaluating the effectiveness of management and conservation practices. Issues remain, however, in that there is currently no reference from which to relate goal progress to human livelihoods. Further, the current relationship between remotely sensed indices and ecological services that determine sustainable development omit steps that would establish this connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fast Scanning Diamond Detector for Electron Beam Profile Monitoring

The first prototype of a fast scanning diamond beam profile detector (DBPD) suitable for invasive high power CW electron beam core profile measurements in transmittance mode was developed. It consists of a multi-strip solid state diamond detector to scan with high speed (up to 1 m/s) and precision (about 5 μm) through the core of an electron beam. The diamond sensor was made from a thin polycrystalline diamond (PCD) plate with highly B-doped diamond conductive strips both grown by CVD. Transient currents from the multi-strip detector were measured with fast digitizing electrometers. Successful operation of the DBPD was demonstrated for pulsed (5 Hz) and CW (78 kHz) CeC beams, including the detector’s ability to withstand a 20 sec insertion into the CW CeC beam core. The X-Y beam spatial profile was measured in one scan. Thermal modelling demonstrated a manageable thermal impact even from a relatively long insertion of the diamond sensor into the CW CeC core and very short (0.2 s) insertion into the CW LEReC beam core. Electrical impedance modelling of the detector and vacuum chamber assembly demonstrated minimal impact on beam line impedance with diamond sensor insertion.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗