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At least 91 records · Page 5

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Association between AOD and PM over the California Central Valley

Many air pollution health effects studies rely on exposure estimates of particulate matter (PM) concentrations derived from remote sensing observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD). Simple but robust calibration models between AOD and PM are therefore important for generating reliable PM exposures. We conduct an in-depth examination of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the AOD-PM2.5 relationship by leveraging data from the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON) field campaign where eight NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites were co-located with EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring sites in California’s Central Valley from November 2012 to April 2013. With this spatiotemporally rich data we found that linear calibration models (R(exp 2) = 0.35, RMSE = 10.38 µg/cu.m) were significantly improved when spatial (R(exp 2) = 0.45, RMSE = 9.54 µg/cu.m), temporal (R(exp 2) = 0.62, RMSE = 8.30 µg/cu.m), and spatiotemporal (R(exp 2) = 0.65, RMSE = 7.58 µg/cu.m) functions were included. As a use-case we applied the best spatiotemporal model to convert space-borne MultiAngle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) AOD observations to predict PM2.5 over the region (R(exp 2) = 0.60, RMSE = 8.42 µg/cu.m). Our results imply that simple AERONET AOD-PM2.5 calibrations are robust and can be reliably applied to space-borne AOD observations, resulting in PM2.5 prediction surfaces for use in downstream applications.

Meytar Sorek-Hamer↗

The Hourly GHI, DHI and DNI: Intercomparison of the CERES-Based Data and the NSRDB Data through Comparison with the Ground-Based BSRN Data

The NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) SYN1deg(Ed4.1) provides hourly global horizontal irradiance (GHI), diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) and direct horizontal irradiance (DirHI) at 1-degree latitude by 1-degree longitude resolution, and the time span is from March 2000 to near present. While the GHI agrees well with the ground-based Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) data, the DHI and DirHI are, respectively, positively and negatively biased against the BSRN data, and so is the direct normal irradiance (DNI) derived simply by dividing the DirHI by the cosine of the hourly solar zenith angle (SZA). We found that the biases tend to be well-defined functions of cos(SZA) and the cloud fraction (CLFR). We thus performed a bias-correction on the hourly DHI and DNI in the latitude-cos(SZA)-CLFR phase space, and therefrom, we derived the hourly global tilted irradiance (GTI) at a number of tilt angles using the isotropic diffuse irradiance model, and the results agree well with the GTI derived from the original BSRN near-instantaneous records. Meanwhile, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has produced the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) with finer spatiotemporal resolution using its Physical Solar Model (PSM) and surface-based measured data, model results and satellite-based data as inputs. Now the NSRDB data covers not only the United States and its neighboring regions, but Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceania. The available temporal resolutions are 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and the spatial resolutions are 2, 4 and 10 km, depending on the selected region. In this presentation, we compare both the CERES-based and NSRDB GHI, DHI and DNI with their BSRN counterparts and show how finer spatial resolution may give us an advantage in data accuracy and usability.

Taiping Zhang↗

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Deep Learning for Subsurface Flow: A Comparative Study of U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators, and Transformers in Underground Hydrogen Storage

Subsurface flow research is essential for the sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. Deep learning (DL) has significantly advanced this field by developing efficient and accurate surrogate models to replace computationally expensive physics‐based simulations. These surrogate models are commonly used to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of state variables, such as gas saturation and reservoir pressure, in heterogeneous geological formations. Despite the various DL models applied to this task, there is a lack of studies systematically comparing their performance. This absence of comparative analysis leads to somewhat arbitrary DL model selection in subsurface flow research, resulting in suboptimal performance and potentially inaccurate predictions. To bridge this gap, we conduct a systematic comparison study of three popular DL architectures—U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and Segmentation Transformer (SETR)—in surrogate modeling of underground hydrogen storage (UHS). We focus on UHS due to its promise of enhancing clean energy resilience and its cyclic operational conditions that represent common scenarios in various subsurface applications. We evaluate the models based on accuracy, training cost, and inference speed. The comparison shows that U‐Net achieves the highest accuracy, followed by SETR and FNO. Despite its lower accuracy, FNO has the highest inference speed. SETR offers competitive accuracy with the least training memory usage, demonstrating the potential of transformers in learning subsurface flow. Our results provide guidance for selecting DL models for surrogate modeling in a wide range of subsurface flow problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using remotely sensed information to support landslide hazard and exposure assessment throughout the disaster lifecycle

The global coverage and temporal frequency that satellites provide offers a unique opportunity to estimate landslide hazard and exposure throughout the disaster lifecycle, from pre-event planning and forecasting to post-event mapping and impact assessment, and finally to recovery and mitigation. The relevance of satellite-derived data and model products is largely contingent on the spatiotemporal sampling, the hazard characteristics, and the needs from the research or applications community. This work presents an advanced Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) framework that brings together satellite and model products with new machine learning techniques and global inventory data to better model landslide hazard and exposure. We present several new ways to map, model, and assess landslide hazard using a range of satellite data. Two new thrusts of this work are to better account for the exacerbating impacts of fires and to provide a multi-day forecast of potential hazard. Together, these additional components blend information from a suite of satellite and model sources to improve early warning of potentially hazardous areas, identify landslide occurrence and impacts in near real-time, and better characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of landslide hazard and exposure more broadly for future awareness and planning. This suite of tools and products is open to the public and provides information to better assess the potential occurrence and impacts of landslides within different regions of the world. This presentation explores both the architecture behind this framework and examples of how the model components and products have been used by different stakeholders around the world.

Thomas Stanley↗

Ion Dynamics Model for Collisionless Radio Frequency Sheaths

Full scale reactor model based on fluid equations is widely used to analyze high density plasma reactors. It is well known that the submillimeter scale sheath in front of a biased electrode supporting the wafer is difficult to resolve in numerical simulations, and the common practice is to use results for electric field from some form of analytical sheath model as boundary conditions for full scale reactor simulation. There are several sheath models in the literature ranging from Child's law to a recent unified sheath model [P. A. Miller and M. E. Riley, J. Appl. Phys. 82, 3689 (1997)l. In the present work, the cold ion fluid equations in the radio frequency sheath are solved numerically to show that the spatiotemporal variation of ion flux inside the sheath, commonly ignored in analytical models, is important in determining the electric field and ion energy at the electrode. Consequently, a semianalytical model that includes the spatiotemporal variation of ion flux is developed for use as boundary condition in reactor simulations. This semianalytical model is shown to yield results for sheath properties in close agreement with numerical solutions.

Bose, Deepak↗

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lethality is Local, but Survival is Systemic: Temporal and Multi-Organ Responses to Chlorine Gas Exposure in a Murine Model

Chlorine gas (Cl2) is a highly toxic chemical associated with both localized lung injury and systemic health effects. While pulmonary damage has been well characterized, the systemic inflammatory and metabolic responses remain poorly understood. We aimed to define the temporal and multi-organ responses to Cl2 exposure in a murine model, with a focus on identifying spatiotemporal inflammation and its impact on survival and lethality. SKH1 mice were exposed for 10 min to varying concentrations of Cl2 (94.4–810 ppm, representative of non-lethal, LD10, and LD50 doses) and monitored for respiratory function, perfusion, and acidosis using organ-specific imaging. At multiple time points (40 min, 6 h, 24 h, and 7 d), we measured phosphoproteins, cytokines, chemokines, growth factors, and metabolic hormones in the lungs, heart, cortex, and plasma. Statistical modeling and logistic regression were used to identify biomarkers associated with lethality and survival. We found that lung injury was the primary cause of potential lethality, particularly via early phosphoprotein signaling disruptions. However, survival correlated with early systemic coordination of inflammatory and metabolic signals across organs. Perfusion and acidosis imaging were strongly associated with chemokine and hormone responses. Key survival-associated plasma biomarkers included decreased insulin, increased ghrelin, and decreased eotaxin. While potential lethality from Cl2 exposure is locally driven by pulmonary injury, survival depends on systemic, multi-organ responses that occur rapidly post-exposure. Within this model, our findings identify a potential therapeutic window to enhance survival and suggest candidate biomarkers that may be explored translationally for both triage and treatment of chlorine-related incidents.

chlorine gas↗

Reduced‐Order Modeling of Energetic Materials Using Physics‐Aware Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks in a Latent Space (LatentPARC)

Physics-aware deep learning (PADL) has gained popularity for use in spatiotemporal dynamics simulations, such as those in computational modeling of energetic materials (EM). We show that the challenge PADL methods face while learning complex field evolution problems can be simplified and accelerated by decoupling it into two tasks: learning complex geometric features in evolving fields and modeling dynamics over these features in a lower-dimensional feature space. We build upon our previous work on physics-aware recurrent convolutional neural networks (PARC). PARC embeds knowledge of underlying physics into its neural network architecture for more robust and accurate prediction of evolving physical fields. PARC was shown to effectively learn complex nonlinear features such as the formation of hotspots and coupled shock fronts in various initiation scenarios of EMs, as a function of microstructures, serving effectively as a microstructure-aware burn model. Here, we further accelerate PARC and reduce its computational cost by projecting the original dynamics onto a lower-dimensional invariant manifold, or “latent space.” The projected latent representation encodes the complex geometry of evolving fields (e.g., temperature and pressure) in a set of data-driven features. The reduced dimension of this latent space allows us to learn the dynamics during the initiation of EM with a lighter and more efficient model. We observe a significant decrease in training and inference time while maintaining results comparable to PARC at inference. This work takes steps towards enabling rapid prediction of EM thermomechanics at larger scales and characterization of EM structure–property–performance linkages at a full application scale.

Mathematics and Computing↗

Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation water globally, with this role likely to grow as water demands and surface water variability increase. A better understanding of the future role of groundwater in meeting sectoral demands requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation of its cost and availability. Yet substantial gaps remain in our knowledge and modeling capabilities related to groundwater availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, and associated extraction costs, which are essential for large-scale analyses of integrated human–water system scenarios, particularly at the global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, a physics-based groundwater extraction and cost accounting model that operates at sub-annual temporal and at the coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution with global coverage. The model produces location-specific groundwater supply–cost curves that provide the levelized cost to access different quantities of available groundwater. The inputs to Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets of permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth to water table, recharge, and hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts for well capital and maintenance costs, as well as the energy costs required to lift water to the surface. The model employs a Theis-based scheme coupled with an amortization-based cost accounting formulation to simulate groundwater extraction and quantify the cost of groundwater pumping. The result is a spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based model that produces groundwater supply–cost curves. We show examples of these supply–cost curves and the insights that can be derived from them across a set of scenarios designed to explore model outcomes. The supply–cost curves produced by the model show that most (90 %) nonrenewable groundwater in storage globally is extractable at costs lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half of the volume remains extractable at under USD 0.108 m−3. The global unit cost is estimated to range from a minimum of USD 0.004 m−3 to a maximum of USD 3.971 m−3. We also demonstrate and discuss examples of how these cost curves could be used by linking Superwell's outputs with other models to explore coupled human–environmental system challenges, such as water resources planning and management, or broader analyses of multisectoral feedbacks.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

Land Surface Process and Air Quality Research and Applications at MSFC

This viewgraph presentation provides an overview of land surface process and air quality research at MSFC including atmospheric modeling and ongoing research whose objective is to undertake a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the effects of accurate land surface characterization on atmospheric modeling results, and public health applications. Land use maps as well as 10 meter air temperature, surface wind, PBL mean difference heights, NOx, ozone, and O3+NO2 plots as well as spatial growth model outputs are included. Emissions and general air quality modeling are also discussed.

Quattrochi, Dale↗

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spatially resolved charge-transfer kinetics at the quantum dot–microbe interface using fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy

Integrating the optoelectronic properties of quantum dots (QDs) with biological enzymatic systems to form microbe-semiconductor biohybrids offers promising prospects for both solar-to-chemical conversion and light-modulated biochemical processes. Developing these nano–bio hybrid systems necessitates a deep understanding of charge-transfer dynamics at the nano–bio interface. Photoexcited carrier transfer from QDs to microbes is driven by complex interactions, with emerging insights into the relevant thermodynamic and kinetic factors. The heterogeneities of both microbes and QD ensembles pose significant challenges in mechanistic understanding, which is critical for designing advanced nano–bio hybrids. We used fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy to analyze charge transfer between a CdSe QD film andShewanella oneidensismicrobes. We correlated the spatiotemporal fluorescence data with an analytical model. Our analysis revealed two distinct distributions of QD de-excitation pathways. The characteristics of these distributions: 1) a faster transfer rate ( k ¯ E T 1 = 1.5 10 9 s - 1 ), with a lower acceptor number ( N ¯ a 1 = 0.03 ) and 2) a slower transfer rate ( k ¯ E T 2 = 4.1 10 8 s - 1 ) with a higher acceptor number ( N ¯ a 2 = 0.18 ). We assign these distributions to the indirect and direct electron transfer mechanisms, respectively. Our findings demonstrate how spectroscopic imaging can uncover fundamental electron transfer mechanisms at complex interfaces, offering valuable design principles for future nano–bio hybrids.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

CHARGE-MAP: An integrated framework to study the multicriteria EV charging infrastructure expansion problem

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years has necessitated the development of effective charging infrastructures. However, charging infrastructure expansion is a multifaceted problem that requires careful consideration of the existing infrastructure, spatiotemporal distribution of charging demands, power-grid capacity, and budget constraints. Here, to approach this complex problem, we present CHARGE-MAP, a data-driven simulation-optimization framework, focused on ensuring meaningful charging experience for individual EV owners. CHARGE-MAP integrates three modules: an agent-based simulation module that estimates spatiotemporal distribution of charging demands by modeling EV adopter mobility and charging behavior; an optimization module that determines optimal new charging station/charger locations and capacities, while minimizing expected detour distances and wait-times with a limited number of new stations; and a power module that determines how to connect the stations to the power grid while maintaining its stability. Using the state of Virginia (consisting of 95 counties and 38 independent cities) as a case study, our results show that CHARGE-MAP can meet the demand of ~198,600 predicted EVs with 1,305 new public charging stations and 2,164 new chargers. It reduces average detour distances for charging by 66% and wait-times at stations by 72% compared to the existing infrastructure. Furthermore, transformer capacity requirement analysis reveals that only 1.8% of residential transformers require upgrades, while over 80% of commercial charging locations can be supported with modest transformer infrastructure (25 to 50 kVA). This indicates that targeted investments can facilitate cost-effective EV integration. Consequently, CHARGE-MAP provides policymakers and urban planners with crucial data-driven insights for effective EV charging infrastructure expansion. Sign up for PNAS alerts.

charging infrastructure↗

Integration of GOES Data for Solar Resource Assessment of the Contiguous United States

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), produced by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), provides high-resolution solar resource data for the contiguous United States (CONUS) using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) East and West observations. This study evaluates the integration of multi-satellite data within the GOES-East/West overlap regions, where conventional longitude-based selection methods often produce an artificial boundary seam. Our results demonstrate that an advanced blending algorithm, which incorporates sun-satellite scattering angles and satellite viewing zenith angles, improves NSRDB accuracy and creates a spatially continuous dataset. Validation against ground-based irradiance measurements reveals reductions in both percentage error (PE) and normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE), particularly in the central United States. The dynamical integration of multi-satellite data provides a robust foundation for more precise modeling of solar resource and improved spatiotemporal analysis of solar ramp across the CONUS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Projection-Based Reduced Order Modeling for Spacecraft Thermal Analysis

This paper presents a mathematically rigorous, subspace projection-based reduced order modeling (ROM) methodology and an integrated framework to automatically generate reduced order models for spacecraft thermal analysis. Two key steps in the reduced order modeling procedure are described: (1) the acquisition of a full-scale spacecraft model in the ordinary differential equation (ODE) and differential algebraic equation (DAE) form to resolve its dynamic thermal behavior; and (2) the ROM to markedly reduce the dimension of the full-scale model. Specifically, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) in conjunction with discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) and trajectory piece-wise linear (TPWL) methods are developed to address the strong nonlinear thermal effects due to coupled conductive and radiative heat transfer in the spacecraft environment. Case studies using NASA-relevant satellite models are undertaken to verify the capability and to assess the computational performance of the ROM technique in terms of speed-up and error relative to the full-scale model. ROM exhibits excellent agreement in spatiotemporal thermal profiles (<0.5% relative error in pertinent time scales) along with salient computational acceleration (up to two orders of magnitude speed-up) over the full-scale analysis. These findings establish the feasibility of ROM to perform rational and computationally affordable thermal analysis, develop reliable thermal control strategies for spacecraft, and greatly reduce the development cycle times and costs.

0000↗

Projecting Electric Vehicle Electricity Demands and Charging Loads

After over a century of petroleum dominance, electric vehicles are rapidly disrupting the transportation energy landscape. At the same time, the electric power systems are undergoing profound changes as variable renewables replace dispatchable fossil generators. It is critically important to understand how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system, and the value of flexible electric vehicle charging to better balance electricity demand and supply. This talk focuses on methods to project electricity demand for EV charging with high spatiotemporal fidelity to enable electricity system modeling and analysis and summarizes results from recent NREL studies in this area.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗