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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Safety, Reliability, and Mission Assurance Digital Future

The evolution from “document-centric” to “data-centric” and “model-centric” information leveraging structured data and model-based approaches is at the heart of digital engineering transformational efforts underway across industry and government. It is these approaches that pave the way for data lakes, Authoritative Sources of Truth (ASOTs), and systems- of-systems interoperability and the corresponding transformational benefits thereof. Such benefits include increased data availability, data access equity, data traceability, real-time analytics, batch analytics, and (most importantly) acceleration of the time-to-value and time-to-insights associated with engineering products and analyses. The longer-term benefits of reusability, customization and traceability are even more promising. For Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA), and Mission Success (SMS) activities; realization of such benefits is essential to provide engineers and analysts alike vital information when needed to support critical decision making throughout the entire life cycle. The SMA community often operate in parallel with engineering activities, for which information exchange with relevant context is paramount. Far too often, such information lags key decision points and/or is absent of the robust, integrated, knowledge needed, given inherent barriers associated with traditional document-centric means to data sharing, analysis, and reporting. This paper provides an overview of how NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) is evolving its policies, standards, guidance, and training to transform to eliminate such barriers, thus realizing the benefits emerging in this new digital era. A roadmap for achieving this digital future is presented along with key building blocks involving use and implementation of concepts such as: Objectives-Hierarchies, Objective-Driven Requirements, Accepted Standards, Safety and Assurance Cases, data digitization (i.e., ontologies, structured data, and model-centric data), FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, & Reusable) and/or FAIRUST (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable, Understandable, Secure, and Trusted) principles [1]. This paper also describes how OSMA, leveraging the Agency’s overall commitment to Digital Transformation (DT), is using the power of Policy, “Digital” Domain representation, Product Evolution, and Community Outreach and Engagement as part of a strategic vision and roadmap to evolve and transform its SMA organizations to become better able to serve its stakeholders and customers. Future publications will elaborate on these building blocks and deeper concepts.

Authoritative Source of Truth (ASOT),↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s LSII: Ensuring Cohesive, Executable Strategy for Technology Development

In 2019, NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) established the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative (LSII) which has evolved into a key agency asset aimed at spurring technology development and providing risk reduction for lunar surface system and infrastructure development. In the five years since its inception, LSII’s work has serviced the needs of technology stakeholders from U.S. industry, academia, government agencies, non-profit institutions, and has expanded to include participation from international organizations. Continued domestic and foreign engagement has gained rapid momentum through LSII’s Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC), an innovative approach that encourages public-private partnerships and collaboration across sectors to support NASA’s existing technology investments and prepare for increasingly complex lunar surface technology demonstrations.

Lunar↗

NASA NTRS2020

UAM Vision Concept of Operations (ConOps) UAM Maturity Level (UML) 4

This Vision ConOps is intended as a foundation to engage members of the UAM community and provide a consensus on the future vision of UAM operations. It provides a concept for more detailed discussion and a basis for the exploration of ideas using a common framework to inform the continued development and integration of UAM as part of the broader transportation system. Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) encompasses a range of innovative aviation technologies (small drones, electric aircraft, automated air traffic management, etc.) that are transforming aviation’s role in everyday life, including the movement of goods and people. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) represents one of the most exciting and complex AAM concepts with highly automated aircraft, providing commercial services to the public over densely populated cities. This concept has generated tremendous interest and industry investment. UAM envisages a future in which advanced technologies and new operational procedures enable practical, cost-effective air travel as an integral mode of transportation in metropolitan areas. It represents one of the most exciting and complex AAM concepts with highly automated aircraft providing commercial services to the public over densely populated cities. For this reason, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) selected UAM as the initial goal of its AAM efforts and the focus of this Vision Concept of Operations (ConOps) document. UAM Community Vision ConOps: This Vision ConOps effort was led by experts from NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Deloitte’s Ecosystem Advisory Group (a cohort of advisers with aviation, aerospace, and regulatory expertise). To develop this Vision ConOps, NASA, FAA, and Deloitte built upon the current body of aeronautical research and consulted with more than 100 stakeholder organizations. This UAM community includes entities ranging from legacy aviation leaders to innovators and new market entrants. Stakeholders consulted included the federal government, state and local government, aerospace original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), local transportation organizations, prospective UAM operators, academia, industry standards-setting bodies, airports, service suppliers, and others (as described in Appendix G). This input was captured through the following methods: • A series of more than two dozen interviews with industry experts, federal regulators, state and local governments, and industry trade groups provided insight into the challenges of UAM integration into the National Airspace System (NAS), as well as technology developments and a variety of perspectives as to how UAM systems will integrate. • A series of two-day community workshops enabling active, detailed engagement of nearly 100 industry, academic, federal, and state stakeholder individuals. These workshops, hosted by NASA and Deloitte, explored UAM concepts in detail, and stakeholders were invited to collaboratively analyze and propose solutions to some of the greatest conceptual challenges behind UAM at an intermediate state. • A review of more than 160 sources of UAM literature from across government, industry, and academia, which are listed in Appendix H. • The public sharing of workshop input and document drafts for review and input across the UAM community. Feedback in the form of more than 1,000 comments and inputs on the document was received from industry groups, individual companies, academia, and government (federal, state, and local), among others. Although effort was made to incorporate inputs from across the UAM stakeholder group, not all comments could ultimately be incorporated in this version. The team resolved conflicting comments or ideas while maintaining consistency with the known direction of regulators and ensuring the document was coherent and consistent. It is recognized that this is a rapidly evolving area and that concepts will likely change over time; as such, this Vision ConOps is a living document and is expected to evolve as concepts mature. The ConOps does, however, provide a vision of UAM concepts and solutions based on the broad insights from across the UAM stakeholder community at the time of its publication and is intended to serve as a UAM North Star for continued research and development of UAM. As a broad Vision ConOps, is not a detailed engineering document; rather, it focuses primarily on outlining a broad, high-level vision across all aspects of a UAM transportation system.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Moon Trek Portal: New Capabilities Supporting Mission Planning and Engagement

Introduction: NASA’s Moon Trek (https://trek.nasa.gov/moon/) is one of a growing number of interactive, browser-based, online portals for planetary data visualization and analysis produced by NASA’s Solar System Treks Project (SSTP). Moon Trek continues to be enhanced with new data and new capabilities enabling it to facilitate the planning and conducting of upcoming lunar missions by NASA, its commercial partners, and its international partners, as well as advancing its role as a valuable outreach tool. A Comprehensive Online Web Portal: Developed at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and managed as a project of NASA’s Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) at NASA Ames Research Center, Moon Trek is a browser-based web portal. The portal provides easy-to-use tools for browsing, data layering, data product blending, and feature search among thousands of data products covering topography, mineralogy, elemental abundance, geology, and much more. Visualizations are provided in var-ious map projections, interactive 3D viewing, and in virtual reality. Using an in-house stereo workflow, SSTP is able to produce new NAC-based high-resolution mosaics and DEMs. Diverse Applications for Lunar Exploration: Baseline analytic tools available to all users include dis-tance measurement, elevation profiling, sun angle calculation, and 3D print file generation. More advanced account-level tools allow users to perform more computationally intensive analyses. These include ray-traced lighting analysis for user-specified areas over user-specified time/date ranges and time intervals, electro-static surface potential analysis, subsetting of large data products, slope analysis, and Lunar Laser Ranging geometry calculation. Artificial intelligence (AI) and ma-chine learning (ML) based tools have been implemented for crater detection and hazard analysis, boulder detection and hazard analysis, and rockfall detection. New Tools Facilitating Exploration: Additional, new tools have recently been added and others are in development, offering even greater functionality in con-ducting analyses of potential landing sites and areas of surface operations. The new Line-of-Sight tool facilitates communications planning between locations on the lunar surface, between any given site on the lunar surface and a specified ground station on the Earth, and between a site on the lunar surface and a relay asset in lunar orbit, all taking into account local lunar topography. The new Data Plotter tool provides both tabular and graphical representations of pixel values along a user specified path for a growing number of data products. The new NAC Finder tool will identify and pro-vide access to NAC images that intersect a user-defined path or bounded area. The SSTP development team is looking to leverage the capabilities of its existing AI and ML crater, boulder, and rockfall detection and analysis tools, and extend that technology to a generalized feature detector that can be trained on instances of specific types of landforms and then search the lunar surface for more examples of such features. New traverse planning tools are being developed with use cases in generalized concept studies and specific mission planning in mind. These will facilitate finding optimal traverse paths based on constraints such as slope, lighting, hazard avoidance, and communications. These will be complemented by new traverse visualization capabilities. Users will be able to interactively ride along with a rover, examining 3D views of the terrain while adjusting camera height and viewing angle along with selecting different data layer overlays to drape across the terrain. Engaging the Public: The capabilities being developed for mission planning are being leveraged to further enhance Moon Trek’s proven utility as a valuable public outreach resource. This includes providing multiple lev-els of engagement with different points of entry. At its simplest level, promoting understanding through visualization, media and the public will be able to easily visualize and conduct their own exploration of lunar sites targeted by NASA and its partners. For a more in-depth experience, we are working with our stakeholders to promote understanding through interaction by extend-ing our current landing site and traverse analysis capabilities, making simplified access to these tools available to those who want to explore more deeply key factors in planning a mission through interactive and possibly even gamified experiences. The highest degree of public outreach, focusing on engagement through scientific participation, could be achieved through our work with missions and the NASA Office of the Chief Scientist on Moon Trek’s extension as a tool with specialized capabilities for facilitating citizen science. In such scenarios, participants become members of extended mis-sion science teams, using dedicated and integrated interfaces to analyze mission data to help answer questions key to lunar science and exploration. We are work-ing with NASA’s Office of Communications, museums, planetariums, and the media to help them easily integrate accurate, detailed visualizations of NASA’s lunar destinations and exploration into their content/productions and to engage diverse audiences in diverse venues.

Moon Trek↗

NASA NTRS2011

Achieving Maximum Integration Utilizing Requirements Flow Down

A robust and experienced systems engineering team is essential for a successful program. It is often a challenge to build a core systems engineering team early enough in a program to maximize integration and assure a common path for all supporting teams in a project. Ares I was no exception. During the planning of IVGVT, the team had many challenges including lack of: early identification of stakeholders, team training in NASA s system engineering practices, solid requirements flow down and a top down documentation strategy. The IVGVT team started test planning early in the program before the systems engineering framework had been matured due to an aggressive schedule. Therefore the IVGVT team increased their involvement in the Constellation systems engineering effort. Program level requirements were established that flowed down to IVGVT aligning all stakeholders to a common set of goals. The IVGVT team utilized the APPEL REQ Development Management course providing the team a NASA focused model to follow. The IVGVT team engaged directly with the model verification and validation process to assure that a solid set of requirements drove the need for the test event. The IVGVT team looked at the initial planning state, analyzed the current state and then produced recommendations for the ideal future state of a wide range of systems engineering functions and processes. Based on this analysis, the IVGVT team was able to produce a set of lessons learned and to provide suggestions for future programs or tests to use in their initial planning phase.

Archiable, Wes↗

NASA NTRS2018

ATD-2 Integrated Arrival/Departure/Surface (IADS) System Phase 1 Evaluations

This document provides an overview of the ATD-2 stakeholder and partner evaluations, also known as Shadow Sessions, held at Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT) in preparation for and during the Phase 1 evaluation period from 9/30/2017 - 9/30/2018. All of the user engagement sessions are listed below, but only a few of the major ones are described in more detail in the rest of this document. This document is comprised of information extracted from the ATD-2 Confluence team collaboration archives.

shadow sessions↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's New Wildland Fire Earth Observation Science & Applications Programmatic Developments

In 2021, the U.S. National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) initiated new programmatic elements within the Science Mission Directorate (SMD) and the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) focused on supporting wildland fire science and applications improvements, employing the vast array of NASA scientific knowledge, airborne and space-borne Earth Observations (EO) capabilities, technology development (sensor systems, etc.), and large framework modeling efforts. Within the Science Mission Directorate, the NASA Earth Science Division (ESD) will focus on improving our understanding of wildland fire through EO tools and applying rigorous-tested modeling and results of that research into operational use. The ESD Wildfire strategy is to invest in new technology and to better integrate NASA’s satellite, airborne, and ground-based observations with wildfire models to provide the wildfire stakeholders with the information they need to make informed decisions about the pre-, active-, and post-fire conditions. The Applied Science Program has restarted the Wildland Fire Applications Program with a focus on engaging wildland fire management and the fire science community in transitioning EO science efforts into routine use by land management entities at the local, state, national and international level. The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate will focus on arenas where their aeronautics science and engineering outcomes can benefit the fire management community as well, specifically in the innovative development of Uncrewed Aircraft systems, congested mixed-use platform airspace management issues, new platform configurations supporting wildland fire missions, and other aeronautics-related science / engineering capabilities which may benefit the fire management community. In total, these developments represent a major thrust forward, supporting the goals of utilizing NASA science to benefit humankind. This presentation will highlight the various wildland fire science focus areas identified through collaborations with the wildland fire science and management community and highlight the plans of this new NASA focus area.

NASA↗

NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 1: Introduction

While urban areas like New York City and its surrounding metropolitan region are key drivers of climate change through emissions of greenhouse gases, cities are also significantly impacted by climate shifts, both chronic changes and extreme events. These are already affecting the New York metropolitan region, including the five boroughs of New York City through higher temperatures, more intense precipitation, and higher sea levels, and will increasingly do so in the coming decades. The City of New York has embarked on a flexible adaptation pathway (i.e., strategies that can evolve through time as climate risk assessment, evaluation of adaptation strategies, and monitoring continues) to respond to climate change challenges. This entails significant programs to develop resilience in communities and critical infrastructure to observed and projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level. The first NPCC Report laid out the risk management framing for the city and region via flexible adaptation pathways. The second New York City Panel on Climate Change Report (NPCC2) developed the “climate projections of record” that are currently being used by the City of New York in its resilience programs . The NPCC3 2019 Report co-generates new tools and methods for the next generation of climate risk assessments and implementation of region-wide resilience. Co-generation is an interactive process by which stakeholders and scientists work together to produce climate change information that is targeted to decision-making needs. These tools and methods can be used to observe, project, and map climate extremes; monitor risks and responses; and engage with communities to develop effective programs. They are especially important at “transformation points” in the adaptation process when large changes in the structure and function of physical, ecological, and social systems of the city and region are undertaken.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS2016

ESIP Information Quality Cluster (IQC)

The Information Quality Cluster (IQC) within the Federation of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) was initially formed in 2011 and has evolved significantly over time. The current objectives of the IQC are to: 1. Actively evaluate community data quality best practices and standards; 2. Improve capture, description, discovery, and usability of information about data quality in Earth science data products; 3. Ensure producers of data products are aware of standards and best practices for conveying data quality, and data providers distributors intermediaries establish, improve and evolve mechanisms to assist users in discovering and understanding data quality information; and 4. Consistently provide guidance to data managers and stewards on how best to implement data quality standards and best practices to ensure and improve maturity of their data products. The activities of the IQC include: 1. Identification of additional needs for consistently capturing, describing, and conveying quality information through use case studies with broad and diverse applications; 2. Establishing and providing community-wide guidance on roles and responsibilities of key players and stakeholders including users and management; 3. Prototyping of conveying quality information to users in a more consistent, transparent, and digestible manner; 4. Establishing a baseline of standards and best practices for data quality; 5. Evaluating recommendations from NASA's DQWG in a broader context and proposing possible implementations; and 6. Engaging data providers, data managers, and data user communities as resources to improve our standards and best practices. Following the principles of openness of the ESIP Federation, IQC invites all individuals interested in improving capture, description, discovery, and usability of information about data quality in Earth science data products to participate in its activities.

data products↗

NASA NTRS2013

Internal Social Media at Marshall Space Flight Center - An Engineer's Snapshot

In the brief span of about six years (2004-2010), social media radically enhanced people's ways of maintaining recreational friendships. Social media's impact on public affairs (PAO) and community engagement is equally striking: NASA has involved millions of non-NASA viewers in its activities via outward-facing social media, often in a very two-way street fashion. Use of social media as an internal working tool by NASA's tens of thousands of civil servants, onsite contractor employees, and external stakeholders is evolving more slowly. This paper examines, from an engineer's perspective, Marshall Space Flight Center s (MSFC) efforts to bring the power of social media to the daily working environment. Primary emphasis is on an internal Social Networking Service called Explornet that could be scaled Agency-wide. Other topics include MSFC use of other social media day-to-day for non-PAO purposes, some specialized uses of social techniques in space flight control operations, and how to help a community open up so it can discover and adopt what works well.

Scott, David W.↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA Earth Observations Informing Energy Management Decision Making

The Energy Sector is experiencing increasing impacts from severe weather and shifting climatic trends, as well as facing a changing political climate, adding uncertainty for stakeholders as they make short- and long-term planning investments. Climate changes such as prolonged extreme heat and drought (leading to wildfire spread, for example), sea level rise, and extreme storms are changing the ways that utilities operate. Energy infrastructure located in coastal or flood-prone areas faces inundation risks, such as damage to energy facilities. The use of renewable energy resources is increasing, requiring more information about their intermittency and spatial patterns. In light of these challenges, public and private stakeholders have collaborated to identify potential data sources, tools, and programmatic ideas. For example, utilities across the country are using cutting-edge technology and data to plan for and adapt to these changes. In the Federal Government, NASA has invested in preliminary work to identify needs and opportunities for satellite data in energy sector application, and the Department of Energy has similarly brought together stakeholders to understand the landscape of climate vulnerability and resilience for utilities and others. However, have these efforts improved community-scale resilience and adaptation efforts? Further, some communities are more vulnerable to climate change and infrastructure impacts than others. This session has two goals. First, panelists seek to share existing and ongoing efforts related to energy management. Second, the session seeks to engage with attendees via group knowledge exchange to connect national energy management efforts to local practice for increased community resilience.

Eckman, Richard↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CELA NextGen 2020 Abstract

Creating a new technology development is hard! But, experience canbe the best teacher. Through our journey in maturing CELA, africtionless, direct-drive Reaction Sphere (RS) (Figure 1), lessonsour team learned have given us valuable insights that can help youon your own technology development journey. CELA (CorrelatedElectromagnetic Levitation Actuator), like all state-of-the-art starts, is a technology development project. This idea started by addressing a problem posed in a classroom setting, and has morphed into its current state today. At first, the problem was to create a novel separation system. Then, as oftenhappens with new ideas, there was a bump in the road: CELA did not align with stakeholder priorities. So, we had to pivot. The team learned that the funding organization was more excited about an Attitude Control System solution than a Separation System solution. CELA then became a Reaction Wheel. Through more pivots, the technology development advanced into a RS. This example shows that the process for maturing an idea is just as important as the technology itself. Other aspects of the process include finding funding sources, conducting research, obtaining patents, engaging partners, and finally creating systems to keep you on track and pointed in the right direction. Going through this process will teach you many valuable lessons: you never know when an idea will arrive, you will experience rejection, and you will learn a lot about your own strengths and weaknesses.The importance of this is not to teach you to give up, but to teach you to keep going, and to learn what works and what does not work in order to set yourself up for success.

technology↗

NASA NTRS2010

Leading the Public Face of Space

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is fully committed to sharing the excitement of America's international space missions with its stakeholders, particularly the general public. In 2009, the Space Shuttle delivered astronauts to the Hubble Space Telescope to service that great observatory and to the International Space Station to install the observation platform on the Japanese Kibo laboratory. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter is showing an unprecedented view of the Moon, confirming the presence of hardware left behind during the Apollo missions decades ago and helping scientists better understand Earth's natural satellite. These and numerous other exciting missions are fertile subjects for public education and outreach. NASA's core mission includes engaging the public face of space in many forms and forums. Agency goals include communicating with people across the United States and through international opportunities. NASA has created a culture where communication opportunities are valued avenues to deliver information about scientific findings and exploration possibilities. As this presentation will show, NASA's leaders act as ambassadors in the public arena and set expectations for involvement across their organizations. This presentation will focus on the qualities that NASA leaders cultivate to achieve challenging missions, to expand horizons and question "why". Leaders act with integrity and recognize the power of the team multiplier effect on delivering technical performance within budget and schedule, as well as through participation in education and outreach opportunities. Leaders are responsible for budgeting the resources needed to reach target audiences with compelling, relevant information and serve as role models, delivering key messages to various audiences. Examples that will be featured in this presentation include the Student Launch Projects and Great Moonbuggy race, which reach hundreds of students who are a promising pipeline for new scientists and engineers for a new generation of discovery. The popular Exploration Experience trailer is an interactive-exhibit environment that travels across the United States, conveying the innovation necessary for space travel and the wonder of discovery that comes from viewing our planet as part of the larger space-scape.

Dumbacher, Daniel L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Leading the Public Face of Space

Dumbacher, Daniel L.↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Geodetic and Positioning Thematic Layer - Identifying tools to connect the GGRF and IGIF

Effective and sustainable modernization of a nation’s geodetic framework relies on the ability of the relevant organizations and other stakeholders to communicate, integrate, and align both their strategic objectives and operational planning with the United Nations Committee of Experts on Global Geospatial Information Management (UN GGIM) Sub-Committee on Geodesy’s (SCoG) roadmap for a Global Geodetic Reference Frame (GGRF) for Sustainable Development. In addition, to implement geodetic modernization initiatives through multiple government agencies, a holistic country action plan (CAP) for geospatial information management must incorporate pertinent geodetic outcomes and outputs. Presently, the CAP framework and principles used by nations is the UN GGIM Integrated Geospatial Information Framework (IGIF). From engagement with geospatial and survey communities across emerging nations in the Asia Pacific region, it is evident more assistance and coordination is necessary to articulate, integrate and connect geodetic organizational strategies with the requirements of the GGRF roadmap; the strategic pathways of the IGIF; and resourcing for a meaningful and relevant multi-faceted CAP. One of the supporting mechanisms for such planning or preparation, which representatives of the International Federation of Surveyors (FIG) Asia Pacific Capacity Development Network (AP CDN) and the UN SCoG Education, Training and Capacity Building (ETCB) working group are considering, is a policy framework and guide for a “Geodetic and Positioning Thematic Layer” (GPTL). Essentially, this “thematic layer”, in terms of the GGRF and IGIF, aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of, and a toolbox for, the “why, what, how, and who” of geodesy and positioning. This discussion paper will provide background and insights for a GPTL dedicated to recognizing, and aligning the geodetic capacity development needs with broader geospatial information management issues and applications. The paper will also outline a rigorous, participatory, and inclusive consultation process for the design and development of a thematic layer. Furthermore, as the intention of the authors is to prepare a forthcoming “white paper” that will concisely describe the issues of a GPTL and initiatives for an appropriate guide and/or policy framework, this paper will seek feedback on: the potential scientific, social, environmental and political benefits of modernizing geodetic infrastructure and systems; the challenges associated with the GGRF roadmap; leveraging the geodesy-relevant elements of each IGIF strategic pathway; the importance of collaborative efforts; and the capacity development needs and resources in relation to governance, technology and people.

SARIB, Rob↗

NASA NTRS2023

Aviation 2072: Scenario Planning for Wicked Problems

The world is changing rapidly. And with it, so are the potential futures for humanity. Many of these potential futures pose hidden threats, while others offer new opportunities for aviation and the broader aerospace community. To mitigate these risks and capitalize on opportunities, organizations must work to deeply understand these potential future scenarios and uncover any underlying drivers. Organizations will be more equipped and informed when making strategic investment decisions by better understanding these threats, opportunities, and drivers . The future scenarios and their threats and opportunities described in this paper were identified through a series of extensive brainstorming workshops, collectively titled MADNESS (Mapping for Aviation Driven by Needs Emergence and Satiating Society). These workshops engaged NASA civil servants and contractors with diverse backgrounds through a facilitated process of future scenario development and critique. The participants were led through exercises focused on a time horizon spanning from 2022 to 2072 and on problems that aviation might solve and or create during this period. From the broad results, two patterns of critical uncertainty emerged: “availability” (scarcity versus abundance) and “transparency” (openness versus security and privacy). The successful iteration and ideation across the MADNESS workshops also suggests a repeatable mechanism for strategic risk exploration across a variety of NASA and industry stakeholders.

Mapping↗

NASA NTRS2014

Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption

As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..

Horio, Brant M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗