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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

Simplification of the Grid Model and its Impact on the Analysis of Electrical Power Systems

Here, this paper analyzes the impact of the use of Kron reduction on the state variables of a three-phase electrical system, even when it does not meet the necessary conditions for its application. Reduction is applied to a power line model to eliminate the equation corresponding to the neutral conductor of the line. The ATP program is used to model and simulate the behavior of an electrical system considering different degrees of disequilibrium as a reference for the comparison of results. The results show that under certain conditions of disequilibrium the Kron reduction can lead to significant errors in the state variables of the system.

Electric Power Systems↗

Modeling and simulation framework for dynamic strain localization in elasto-viscoplastic metallic materials subject to large deformations

This study describes a theoretical and computational framework for the treatment of adiabatic shear band formation in rate-sensitive polycrystalline metallic materials. From a computational perspective, accurate representation of strain localization behavior has been a long-standing challenge. In addition, the underlying physical mechanisms leading to the localization of plastic deformation are still not fully understood. The proposed framework is built around an enhanced-strain finite element formulation, designed to alleviate numerical pathologies known to arise in localization problems, by allowing a localization band of given finite width (weak discontinuity) to be embedded within individual elements. The mechanical threshold strength (MTS) model is used to represent the temperature and strain rate-dependent viscoplastic response of the material. This classical flow stress model employs an internal state variable to quantify the effect of dislocation structure evolution (work hardening and recovery). In light of growing evidence suggesting that the softening effect of dynamic recrystallization may play a significant role, alongside thermal softening, in the process of shear band formation and growth, a simple dynamic recrystallization model is proposed and cast within the context of the MTS model with the aid of the aforementioned internal state variable. An initiation criterion for shear localization in rate and temperature-sensitive materials is introduced and used in the present context of high-rate loading, where material rate-dependence is pronounced and substantial temperature increases are achieved due to the dissipative nature of viscoplastic processes. In addition, explicit time integration is adopted to facilitate treatment of the dynamic problems under consideration, where strain rates in excess of 10 4 s –1 are typically attained. Two series of experiments are conducted on AISI 316L stainless steel, employing the commonly used top-hat sample geometry and the Split-Hopkinson Pressure Bar dynamic test system. Axi-symmetric finite element simulation results are compared to cross-sectional micrographs of recovered samples and experimental load–displacement results, in order to examine the performance of the proposed framework and demonstrate its effectiveness in treating the initiation and growth of adiabatic shear banding in dynamically loaded metallic materials. These comparisons demonstrate that thermal softening alone is insufficient to induce shear localization behaviors observed in some materials, such as stainless steel, and support the hypothesis that dynamic recrystallization and/or other softening mechanisms play an essential role in this process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of a Full-Scale Connected U-Net for Reflectivity Inpainting in Spaceborne Radar Blind Zones

CloudSat’s Cloud Profiling Radar is a valuable tool for remotely monitoring high-latitude snowfall, but its ability to observe hydrometeor activity near the Earth’s surface is limited by a radar blind zone caused by ground clutter contamination. This study presents the development of a deeply supervised U-Net-style convolutional neural network to predict cold season reflectivity profiles within the blind zone at two Arctic locations. The network learns to predict the presence and intensity of near-surface hydrometeors by coupling latent features encoded in blind zone-aloft clouds with additional context from collocated atmospheric state variables (i.e., temperature, specific humidity, and wind speed). Results show that the U-Net predictions outperform traditional linear extrapolation methods, with low mean absolute error, a 38% higher Sørensen–Dice coefficient, and vertical reflectivity distributions 60% closer to observed values. The U-Net is also able to detect the presence of near-surface cloud with a critical success index (CSI) of 72% and cases of shallow cumuliform snowfall and virga with 18% higher CSI values compared to linear methods. An explainability analysis shows that reflectivity information throughout the scene, especially at cloud edges and at the 1.2-km blind zone threshold, along with atmospheric state variables near the tropopause, are the most significant contributors to model skill. This surface-trained generative inpainting technique has the potential to enhance current and future remote sensing precipitation missions by providing a better understanding of the nonlinear relationship between blind zone reflectivity values and the surrounding atmospheric state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Testing the reliability of interpretable neural networks in geoscience using the Madden–Julian oscillation

Abstract. We test the reliability of two neural network interpretation techniques, backward optimization and layerwise relevance propagation, within geoscientific applications by applying them to a commonly studied geophysical phenomenon, the Madden–Julian oscillation. The Madden–Julian oscillation is a multi-scale pattern within the tropical atmosphere that has been extensively studied over the past decades, which makes it an ideal test case to ensure the interpretability methods can recover the current state of knowledge regarding its spatial structure. The neural networks can, indeed, reproduce the current state of knowledge and can also provide new insights into the seasonality of the Madden–Julian oscillation and its relationships with atmospheric state variables. The neural network identifies the phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation twice as accurately as a linear regression approach, which means that nonlinearities used by the neural network are important to the structure of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Interpretations of the neural network show that it accurately captures the spatial structures of the Madden–Julian oscillation, suggest that the nonlinearities of the Madden–Julian oscillation are manifested through the uniqueness of each event, and offer physically meaningful insights into its relationship with atmospheric state variables. We also use the interpretations to identify the seasonality of the Madden–Julian oscillation and find that the conventionally defined extended seasons should be shifted later by 1 month. More generally, this study suggests that neural networks can be reliably interpreted for geoscientific applications and may thereby serve as a dependable method for testing geoscientific hypotheses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Optimizing Earthquake Nowcasting With Machine Learning: The Role of Strain Hardening in the Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097 ; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757 ; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893 ). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the Recoverability of Reactor Dynamics from Point Kinetics Data using SINDYc

Data driven models for reactor dynamics tend to face a few notable challenges. First, the broad range of timescales present across the various feedback mechanisms. Next, high standards for safety and importance of model performance in all operational domains. Finally, the correlations between state variables observed in most transients leads to difficulties when methods attempt to attribute certain dynamic phenomena to a particular cause. The current paper seeks to support efforts towards incorporating physics knowledge into one particular data-driven method for finding reactor dynamics called ``Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDYc). The incorporation of physical knowledge into SINDYc will help address the challenges listed above by giving the model an initial understanding of the system being modeled. The demonstration of an exact representation of a set of point reactor dynamics equations in SINDYc is provided. Then, this allows for further discussion with mathematical justification as to why SINDYc, and other data-driven methods, may be difficult to apply to nuclear reactor dynamics due to correlations in the state variables. A particularly useful result of this work is the set of candidate functions required in SINDYc to exactly represent the reactor dynamics under a point approximation. In the future, SINDYc can be integrated with point models for reactor dynamics before being applied to the physical system to yield higher accuracy.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NeuroSEM: A hybrid framework for simulating multiphysics problems by coupling PINNs and spectral elements

Multiphysics problems that are characterized by complex interactions among fluid dynamics, heat transfer, structural mechanics, and electromagnetics, are inherently challenging due to their coupled nature. While experimental data on certain state variables may be available, integrating these data with numerical solvers remains a significant challenge. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have shown promising results in various engineering disciplines, particularly in handling noisy data and solving inverse problems in partial differential equations (PDEs). However, their effectiveness in forecasting nonlinear phenomena in multiphysics regimes, particularly involving turbulence, is yet to be fully established. Here, this study introduces NeuroSEM, a hybrid framework integrating PINNs with the highfidelity Spectral Element Method (SEM) solver, Nektar++. NeuroSEM leverages the strengths of both PINNs and SEM, providing robust solutions for multiphysics problems. PINNs are trained to assimilate data and model physical phenomena in specific subdomains, which are then integrated into the Nektar++ solver. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of NeuroSEM for thermal convection in cavity flow and flow past a cylinder. The framework effectively handles data assimilation by addressing those subdomains and state variables where the data is available. We applied NeuroSEM to the Rayleigh-B´enard convection system, including cases with missing thermal boundary conditions and noisy datasets. Finally, we applied the proposed NeuroSEM framework to real particle image velocimetry (PIV) data to capture flow patterns characterized by horseshoe vortical structures. Our results indicate that NeuroSEM accurately models the physical phenomena and assimilates the data within the specified subdomains. The framework’s plug-and-play nature facilitates its extension to other multiphysics or multiscale problems. Furthermore, NeuroSEM is optimized for efficient execution on emerging integrated GPU-CPU architectures. This hybrid approach enhances the accuracy and efficiency of simulations, making it a powerful tool for tackling complex engineering challenges in various scientific domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Anderson acceleration stability in NDA-accelerated k-eigenvalue problems

Anderson acceleration (AA) has been used to improve the stability and convergence rate of multiphysics iterative methods for reactor analysis. Most applications studied assume a tightly converged solution for the different physics problems, and AA is usually applied to state variables like temperature, density, and heat generation rate. In this paper, we study the theoretical performance of AA in NDA-accelerated k-eigenvalue problems. The problems and algorithms studied are simplified from the coupled iteration scheme adopted by MPACT and many other high-fidelity whole-core reactor codes. Compared to previous analyses of AA for these iteration schemes, we study the case with a partially converged neutronics solution and possibly partially converged nonlinear diffusion acceleration (NDA)/coarse mesh finite difference (CMFD) solutions. We observe that the performance of the iteration scheme with AA is very sensitive to the initial guess and is affected by the partially converged CMFD solutions. When the NDA solution is fully converged, using AA cannot achieve the optimal convergence rate in large-sized problems. Conversely, if the NDA solution is partially converged, the iteration scheme with AA can diverge or converge extremely slowly. It is found that the loss of robustness for AA is due to the fact that it is applied to the iterative subspace of state variables rather than the fundamental unknowns of the governing equations. To improve the robustness, the scalar flux should also be considered in the implementation of AA. After considering the residuals of flux, we observe that the stability is regardless of the partial convergence of NDA solutions. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

TRAILS Output Files

Overview This data repository contains ZIP files that store compressed versions of the output of running the WaterPaths utility planning and management tool in the DU Re-Evaluation mode (to download the tool, please see this GitHub repository). The tool was used to simulate the six-utility North Carolina Research Triangle problem. Details on the contents of each ZIP file can be seen below. Data details Temporal range: Weekly data for 2,344 weeks from 2015 to 2060 (45 years). Spatial range: Six water utilities in the North Carolina Research Triangle region (0: Chapel Hil/OWASA, 1: Durham, 2: Cary, 3: Raleigh, 4: Pittsboro, and 5: Chatham) File types: CSV and OUT Different solutions available The solution numbers correspond to the different pathway strategies (henceforth referred to as "solutions") discussed in paper's main and supporting text (abstract and link to the paper here). They are as follows: Sol92: The Durham-focused pathway strategy Sol132: The Raleigh-focused pathway strategy Sol140: The regionally-robust pathway strategy Objectives files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Objectives_RDMXX_solsXX_to_XX.csv files. Each CSV file will consist of a row representing all the objective values for that specific solution, while every six columns represents the reliability, restriction frequency, infrastructure net present value ($ mil), peak financial cost, worst-case cost, and unit cost ($ per MG; in that order) for each of the six utilities. There will be 1,000 such files, denoting the performance of the six utilities across the 1,000 deeply uncertain states of the world (DU SOWs). Pathway files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Pathways_sXX_RDMXX.out file. Each OUT corresponds to the set of infrastructure being triggered in a specific DU SOW, and each file will have the name file will consist of four tab-delimited columns that are described as follows: Realization: The realization in which an infrastructure options being triggered utility: The utility currently triggering infrastructure week: The week in which a specific infrastructure option is being triggered infra.: The infrastructure option being triggered If the OUT file contains only the header line, no infrastructure was triggered for that specific DU SOW. Policies files These files can be obtained by unzipping Policies.zip. Each of the 1,000 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly water use restriction policies for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: 0rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 0 (values between 0 and 1) 1rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 1 (values between 0 and 1) 2rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 2 (values between 0 and 1) 3rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 3 (values between 0 and 1) 4rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 4 (values between 0 and 1) 5rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 5 (values between 0 and 1) 0transf: transfer volume for utility 0 (in MGD) 1transf: transfer volume for utility 1 (in MGD) 2transf: transfer volume for utility 2 (in MGD) 3transf: transfer volume for utility 3 (in MGD) 4transf: transfer volume for utility 4 (in MGD) 5transf: transfer volume for utility 5 (in MGD) Water Sources files These files can be obtained by unzipping WaterSources_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each water source for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xvolume: available water volume from source X (in MGD) Xs_area: surface area of source X (in ACF) Xdemand: demand drawn from a water source from source X (in MGD) Xup_spill: upstream spillage from source X (in MGD) Xww_inflow: wastewater inflow from source X (in MGD) Xcatch_inflow: upstream catchment inflow to source X (in MGD) Xevap: evaporation multiplier for source X (values between 0 and 1) Xds_spill: downstream spillage from source X (in MGD) X_Y_alloc_cap: the allocated capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) X_Y_alloc_dem: the allocated demand from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Xtrmt_alloc_Y: the allocated treatment capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Utilities files These files can be obtained by unzipping Utilities_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each utility for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xcapacity: total storage capacity of utility X (in MG) Xnet_inf: : net inflow for all storage infrastructure for utility X (in MGD) Xst_rof: short term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_stor_rof: short-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_trmt_rof: short-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_rof: long-term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_stor_rof: long-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_trmt_rof: long-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xrest_demand: restricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunrest_demand: unrestricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunfulf_demand: unfulfilled demand for utility X (in MGD) Xwastewater: wastewater return for utility X (in MGD) Xtreat_capacity: total treatment capacity for utility X (in MG) Xcont_fund: reserve (contingency) fund balance for utility X Xins_pout: insurance payout for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xins_price: insurance price for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xinfra_npv: infrastructure net present value for utility ($mil) Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xdebt_serv: debt service for utility X (usually once per year if the infrastructure is triggered; % annual volumetric revenue) Xstor_vol: total stored volume (in MGD) Xobs_ann_dem: observed annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xproj_dem: projected annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xpv_debt_serv: present value of debt service payments for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xgross_rev: gross revenue for utility X ($mil) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

Artificial Intelligence↗

A Small Temperate Lake in the 21st Century: Dynamics of Water Temperature, Ice Phenology, Dissolved Oxygen, and Chlorophyll a

It is unclear how small temperate lakes will evolve physically and biologically in the whole water column under future climate because previous modeling studies usually focused on only one or two physical or biological state variables in the surface waters. To fill this gap, we used a well-validated lake biogeochemistry model driven with different climate scenarios to predict the dynamics of ice phenology, water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll in a small Canadian temperate lake during the 21st century, considering the influence of catchment hydrology. We find that the ice season and ice thickness of the lake would shrink substantially, resulting in a positive energy feedback between climate and the lake. Due to the reduced heat diffusion and water mixing, the dynamics of water temperature in surface waters and deep waters are considerably different, with surface waters warmed dramatically but deep waters muted to warming. The lake DO concentrations would be depleted by warming in the whole column but the controlling processes are depth dependent. The chlorophyll concentration in the lake is inertia to climate change, mainly due to the mismatch of the timings of peak solar radiation and thermal and nutrient optima. Our analysis indicates that the influence of catchment hydrology is large on the dynamics of DO, but not on other state variables we have examined. Finally, this study suggests that small temperate lakes could be sensitive to climate change but their physical and biological responses could be diverse.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Closures and Assimilation for Stiff Multiscale Random Dynamics

Here, we introduce a data-driven and physics-informed framework for propagating uncertainty in stiff, multiscale random ordinary differential equations (RODEs) driven by correlated (colored) noise. Unlike systems subjected to Gaussian white noise, a deterministic equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of RODE state variables does not exist in closed form. Moreover, such an equation would require as many phase-space variables as there are states in the RODE system. To alleviate this curse of dimensionality, we instead derive exact, albeit unclosed, reduced-order PDF (RoPDF) equations for low-dimensional observables/quantities of interest. The unclosed terms take the form of state-dependent conditional expectations, which are directly estimated from data at sparse observation times. However, for systems exhibiting stiff, multiscale dynamics, data sparsity introduces regression discrepancies that compound during RoPDF evolution. This is overcome by introducing a kinetic-like defect term to the RoPDF equation, which is learned by assimilating in sparse, low-fidelity RoPDF estimates. Two assimilation methods are considered, namely nudging and deep neural networks, which are successfully tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Converging towards atomic and nuclear pressures (Final Report)

his report details the development of transformational tools and techniques, allowing the accurate characterization of matter at the most extreme conditions yet studied in the high energy density (HED) domain. Before this work, most experiments quantitatively mapping the nature of matter in the HED realm were performed using planar geometry, which allows for the isolation and measurement of variables in a single thermodynamic state. Such measurements include equation of state variables, optical conductivity, heat transport and more. However, due to a variety of plasma processes, such experiments are limited to below ~10 TPa (100 Mbar) pressures. To achieve higher pressures, convergent experiments are needed. Historically, convergent experiments have not been used for benchmark data because they are integral measurements. That is each part of a convergent target undergoes a time dependent wide range of states, making it difficult to accurately isolate any particular quantity for a given thermodynamic state. This effort developed innovative convergent HED platforms and techniques enabling the exploration of matter from atomic to nuclear scale pressures. This effort also performed pioneering experiments that yielded the first rigorous benchmark data at these extreme conditions. This funding award began with the overarching goal to understand the behavior of matter at extreme (atomic-to-nuclear scale) pressures. The motivation for these goals lie in the fact that every time scientists explore matter beyond the threshold of an atomic unit, there is a fundamental shift in science. The atomic unit for energy, mass, charge, length, and time have each been explored, and each time such a threshold was crossed, a new sequence of discoveries was made resulting in significant awards such as the Nobel Prize. The only unexplored atomic unit is pressure, and this effort set the course for exploring matter at and beyond such pressures. That most of the recently discovered extrasolar planets and stars, as well as matter in the late implosion stages of inertial fusion targets, have deep internal pressures at and beyond atomic pressures amplifies the importance of this effort. Much of the initial work in developing techniques to create these atomic-to-nuclear pressures already existed within the HED community, predominantly at large scale laser facilities such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and the Omega60 laser the University of Rochester and although these experiments were routinely performed the ability to extract information about the underlying physical states and processes remained elusive due to the complexity of the experiments, extreme scales in both time and space, and the integrated nature of all the measurements. This work built a rigorous framework so such measurements can routinely be made. This was done in part through the introduction of Bayesian inference techniques into the field of HED science. These techniques allow for the self-consistent extraction of the relevant variables and their explicit and implicit correlations, so as to make use of integrated experimental data to constrain physical models and provide accurate uncertainty bounds for the data. The techniques developed here are fully transparent and proved immediately useful providing quantitative rigorous benchmarks for physical states and processes at some of the most extreme conditions yet explored on Earth. This funding is directly or partly responsible for 7 publications in major peer-reviewed scientific journals, a doctoral thesis, 3 invited talks at major conferences, and the training of a post-doc, 2 graduate students, and 1 undergraduate student. Beyond the effort supported by this award launched the introduction of Bayesian inference into the HED physics community and helped push the usage if modern data-science techniques within the physics community at large.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Bayesian Optical Heterodyne Tomography

We introduce a complete workflow for Bayesian quantum state tomography of generic continuous-variable states. We also summarize experimental results applying this workflow to the tomographic reconstruction of thermal and coherent states of light.

Chapman, Joseph↗

ML-based Dimension Reduction Strategies

Deep learning (DL)--based surrogate models have achieved success in various applications in carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the model training on high-dimensional spaces is computationally expensive and impractical for large-scale and complex geological models, because the models usually contain hundreds of thousands to millions of grid cells, each with a set of parameters. Furthermore, the high cost of generating training data with sufficient variation is another limitation of model training on high-dimensional spaces, which may result in overfitting and reduce the model efficiency and prediction performance. We proposed the workflow incorporating dimension reduction methods and deep learning models, which aim to extract the latent variables of input parameters and output state variables, and then build the mapping function at the latent spaces. The proposed workflow can significantly reduce the computational complexity in solving both forward and inverse problems compared to models trained on high-dimensional spaces. Dimensionality reduction models showed great potential in workflows for fast reservoir simulation, history matching, prior model generation, visualization, and more, ultimately enhancing DL model performance in related SMART Work Packages.

Hosseini, Seyyed↗

Dynamic parameter estimation of generators

Various examples are provided extended Kalman filtering estimators for generators. In one example, among others an extended Kalman filtering estimator includes a dynamics estimator configured to calculate an estimated variable such as an estimated dynamic state or an estimated parameter of a generator, a geometry estimator configured to estimate generator values, and a Kalman filter component configured to determine a correction to the estimated state variable.

Miao, Zhixin↗

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States (2023 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.2 million systems installed through year-end 2022, representing more than 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive and econometric analysis The report also includes a multi-variate regression analysis to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2022.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2024 Edition [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.7 million systems installed through year-end 2023, representing close to 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, roof-coverage ratios, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and customer segmentation -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive analysis and a multi-variate regression to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2023.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Identifying Characteristics of Wildfire Towers and Troughs

Wildfire behavior is dictated by the complex interaction of numerous physical phenomena including dynamic ambient and fire-induced winds, heat transfer, aerodynamic drag on the wind by the fuel and combustion. These phenomena create complex feedback effects between the fire and its surroundings. In this study, we aim to study the mechanisms by which buoyant flame dynamics along with vortical motions and instabilities control wildfire propagation. Specifically, this study employs a suite of simulations conducted with the physics-based coupled fire-atmosphere behavior model (FIRETEC). The simulations are initialized with a fire line and the fires are allowed to propagate on a grass bed, where the fuel heights and wind conditions are varied systematically. Flow variables are extracted to identify the characteristics of the alternating counter-rotational vortices, called towers and troughs, that drive convective heat transfer and fire spread. These vortices have previously been observed in wildfires and laboratory fires, and have also been observed to arise spontaneously in FIRETEC due to the fundamental physics incorporated in the model. However, these past observations have been qualitative in nature and no quantitative studies can be found in the literature which connected these coherent structures fundamental to fire behavior with the constitutive flow variables. To that end, a variety of state variables are examined in the context of these coherent structures under various wind profile and grass height conditions. Identification of various correlated signatures and fire-atmosphere feedbacks in simulations provides a hypothesis that can be tested in future observational or experimental efforts, potentially assisting experimental design, and can aid in the interpretation of data from in situ detectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗