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At least 91 records · Page 5

Consequences of Different Air-Sea Feedbacks on Ocean Using MITgcm and MERRA-2 Forcing: Implications for Coupled Data Assimilation Systems

Ocean surface flux estimates from atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses contain errors that compensate for inaccuracies in the respective atmosphere and ocean models used to generate these reanalyses. A conundrum for climate studies is the discrepancy between surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an atmosphere-only model vs surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an ocean model. As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere data-assimilation (DA) system, we compare surface net heat flux from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to net heat flux from a state-of-the-art ocean state estimate, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4 (ECCO-v4). The possible impacts of the MERRA-2 and ECCO-v4 air-sea net heat flux difference in a coupled DA system were assessed using a set of experiments designed to imitate different “flavors” of a coupled DA system in an ocean-only setup. This was done by forcing the ECCO-v4 underlying ocean model - the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) - with different sets of MERRA-2 fields and utilizing different forcing methods. By doing so we were able to turn off different air-sea feedbacks which, in a coupled DA setup, are partially muted by the constraining observations. The set of experiments, therefore, represents a range of active feedbacks in different “flavors” of coupled data-assimilation systems. For the period 1992–2011, MERRA-2 net heat flux has a global mean difference of -4.9 Wm(exp -2) relative to ECCO-v4. When MERRA-2 surface fields are used to force MITgcm, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2, which are directly related to the fact that MERRA-2 was created without an interactive ocean, propagate to the ocean. The experiment in which MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 fluxes (MERRA-2-flux experiment) results in a 2.5°C global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling, a 1m reduction in global mean sea level, and other drastic changes in the large scale ocean circulation relative to those resulting when the MITgcm is forced with the optimized ECCO-v4 net heat flux (the ECCO-v4 experiment itself). When MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 state variables (MERRA-2-state experiment), the SST is somewhat restored to the observed SST, but the errors are shifted to the water cycle, resulting in a global mean sea level increase of 2.7 m. To further explore the pros and cons of these two approaches, we introduce a new intermediate forcing method in which the ocean is forced with turbulent fluxes but has a long wave feedback. This method, unlike MERRA-2 state, preserves the MERRA-2 water and salinity cycles, and it reduces the SST error compared to the MERRA-2-flux experiment, but the SST is not as good as that in the MERRA-2-state experiment. Our results have implications for ocean-model forcing recipes and clearly reveal the undesirable consequences of limiting the feedbacks in either these types of experiments or in coupled DA.

Ehud Strobach↗

A Climatology of Tropospheric CO over the Central and Southeastern United States and the Southwestern Pacific Ocean Derived from Space, Air, and Ground-based Infrared Interferometer Spectra

This final report summarizes all research activities and publications undertaken as part of NASA Atmospheric Chemistry and Modeling Analysis Program (ACMAP) Grant NAG-1-2022, 'A Climatology of Tropospheric CO over the Central and Southeastern United States and the Southwestern Pacific Ocean Derived from Space, Air, and Ground-based Infrared Interferometer Spectra'. Major project accomplishments include: (1) analysis of more than 300,000 AERI spectra from the ARM SGP site yielding a 5-year (1998-2002) timeseries of CO retrievals from the Lamont, OK AERI; (2) development of a prototype CO profile retrieval algorithm for AERI spectra; (3) validation and publication of the first CO retrievals from the Scanning High-resolution Interferometer Sounder (SHIS); and (4) development of a prototype AERI tropospheric O3 retrieval algorithm. Compilation and publication of the 5-year Lamont, OK timeseries is underway including a new collaboration with scientists at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Public access to this data will be provided upon article submission. A comprehensive CO analysis of the archive of HIS spectra of remains as the only originally proposed activity with little progress. The greatest challenge faced in this project was motivating the University of Wisconsin Co-Investigators to deliver their archived HIS and AERIOO data along with the requisite temperature and water vapor profiles in a timely manner. Part of the supplied HIS dataset from ASHOE may be analyzed as part of a Master s Thesis under a separate project. Our success with the SAFARI 2000 SHIS CO analysis demonstrates the utility of such aircraft remote sensing data given the proper support from the instrument investigators. In addition to the PI and Co-I s, personnel involved in this CO climatology project include one Post Doctoral Fellow, one Research Scientist, two graduate students, and two undergraduate students. A total of fifteen presentations regarding research related to this project were delivered at eleven different scientific meetings. Thus far, three publications have resulted from this project with another five in preparation. No subject inventions resulted from this research project.

McMillian, W. Wallace↗

Subduction in an Eddy-Resolving State Estimate of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

Are eddies an important contributor to subduction in the eastern subtropical gyre? Here, an adjoint model is used to combine a regional, eddy-resolving numerical model with observations to produce a state estimate of the ocean circulation. The estimate is a synthesis of a variety of in- situ observations from the Subduction Experiment, TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry, and the MTI General Circulation Model. The adjoint method is successful because the Northeast Atlantic Ocean is only weakly nonlinear. The state estimate provides a physically-interpretable, eddy-resolving information source to diagnose subduction. Estimates of eddy subduction for the eastern subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic are larger than previously calculated from parameterizations in coarse-resolution models. Furthermore, eddy subduction rates have typical magnitudes of 15% of the total subduction rate. Eddies contribute as much as 1 Sverdrup to water-mass transformation, and hence subduction, in the North Equatorial Current and the Azores Current. The findings of this thesis imply that the inability to resolve or accurately parameterize eddy subduction in climate models would lead to an accumulation of error in the structure of the main thermocline, even in the relatively-quiescent eastern subtropical gyre.

WATER MASS TRANSFORMATIONS↗

Biogeochemical Effects of Rising Atmospheric CO2 on Terrestrial and Ocean Systems

Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) has decreased seawater pH at long-term observing stations around the world, including in the open ocean north of Oahu, Hawaii, near Alaska's Aleutian Islands, the Gulf of Maine shore, and on Gray's Reef in the southeastern United States. This ocean acidification process has already affected some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes, and further effects are likely. While atmospheric CO rises at approximately the same rate all over the globe, its non-climate effects on land vary depending on climate and dominant species. In terrestrial ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO concentrations are expected to increase plant photosynthesis, growth, and water-use efficiency, though these effects are reduced when nutrients, drought or other factors limit plant growth. Rising CO would likely change carbon storage and influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, but concomitant effects on vegetation composition and nutrient feedbacks are challenging to predict, making decadal forecasts uncertain. Consequences of rising atmospheric CO are expected to include difficult-to-predict changes in the ecosystem services that terrestrial and ocean systems provide to humans. For instance, ocean acidification resulting from rising CO has decreased the supply of larvae that sustains commercial shellfish production in the northwestern United States. In addition, CO fertilization (increases) plus warming (decreases) are changing terrestrial crop yields. Continued persistence of uptake of carbon by the land and ocean is uncertain. Climate and environmental change create complex feedbacks to the carbon cycle and it is not clear how feedbacks modulate future effects of rising CO on carbon sinks. These are several mechanisms that could reduce future sink capacity.

Biogeochemical↗

Nonlocal, Pattern-Aware Response and Feedback Framework for Regional Climate Response

We devise a pattern-aware feedback framework for representing the forced climate response using a suite of Green’s function experiments with solar radiation perturbations. By considering the column energy balance, a comprehensive linear response function (CLRF) for important climate variables and feedback quantities such as moist static energy, sea surface temperature, albedo, cloud optical depth, and lapse rate is learned from Green’s function data. The learned CLRF delineates the effects of the energy diffusion in both the ocean and atmosphere and the pattern-aware feedbacks from the aforementioned radiatively active processes. The CLRF can then be decomposed into forcing–response mode pairs, which are in turn used to construct a reduced-order model describing the dominant dynamics of climate responses. These mode pairs capture nonlocal effects and teleconnections in the climate and thus make the reduced-order model apt for capturing regional features of climate response. A key observation is that the CLRF captures the polar-amplified response as the most excitable mode of the climate system, and this mode is explainable in the data-learned pattern-aware feedback framework. The reduced-order model can be used for predicting the response for a given forcing and for reconstructing the forcing from a given response; we demonstrate these capabilities for multiple independent forcing scenarios.

Feedback↗

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

Abstract This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

Liu, Guangpeng↗

Sampling electronic structure quadratic unconstrained binary optimization problems (QUBOs) with Ocean and Mukai solvers

The most advanced D-Wave Advantage quantum annealer has 5000+ qubits, however, every qubit is connected to a small number of neighbors. As such, implementation of a fully-connected graph results in an order of magnitude reduction in qubit count. To compensate for the reduced number of qubits, one has to rely on special heuristic software such as qbsolv, the purpose of which is to decompose a large quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem into smaller pieces that fit onto a quantum annealer. In this work, we compare the performance of the open-source qbsolv which is a part of the D-Wave Ocean tools and a new Mukai QUBO solver from Quantum Computing Inc. (QCI). The comparison is done for solving the electronic structure problem and is implemented in a classical mode (Tabu search techniques). The Quantum Annealer Eigensolver is used to map the electronic structure eigenvalue-eigenvector equation to a QUBO problem, solvable on a D-Wave annealer. We find that the Mukai QUBO solver outperforms the Ocean qbsolv with one to two orders of magnitude more accurate energies for all calculations done in the present work, both the ground and excited state calculations. This work stimulates the further development of software to assist in the utilization of modern quantum annealers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing the sequestration time scales of some ocean-based carbon dioxide reduction strategies

Abstract Ocean-based carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) strategies are an important part of the portfolio of approaches needed to achieve negative greenhouse gas emissions. Many ocean-based CDR strategies rely on injecting CO 2 or organic carbon (that will eventually become CO 2 ) into the ocean interior, or enhancing the ocean’s biological pump. These approaches will not result in permanent sequestration, because ocean currents will eventually return the injected CO 2 back to the surface, where it will be brought into equilibrium with the atmosphere. Here, a model of steady state global ocean circulation and mixing is used to assess the time scales over which CO 2 injected in the ocean interior remains sequestered from the atmosphere. There will be a distribution of sequestration times for any single discharge location due to the infinite number of pathways connecting a location at depth with the sea surface. The resulting probability distribution is highly skewed with a long tail of very long transit times, making mean sequestration times much longer than typical time scales. Deeper discharge locations will sequester purposefully injected CO 2 much longer than shallower ones and median sequestration times are typically decades to centuries, and approach 1000 years in the deep North Pacific. Large differences in sequestration times occur both within and between the major ocean basins, with the Pacific and Indian basins generally having longer sequestration times than the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Assessments made over a 50 year time horizon illustrates that most of the injected carbon will be retained for injection depths greater than 1000 m, with several geographic exceptions such as the Western North Atlantic. Ocean CDR strategies that increase upper ocean ecosystem productivity with the goal of exporting more carbon to depth will have mainly a short-term influence on atmospheric CO 2 levels because ∼70% will be transported back to the surface ocean within 50 years. The results presented here will help plan appropriate ocean CDR strategies that can help limit climate damage caused by fossil fuel CO 2 emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High‐Performance Al–S Batteries by Spin Polarization Modulation via Catalytic Ni‐MoS 2 Nanosheets

Aluminum–sulfur (Al–S) batteries catalysts with adsorption and catalytic capabilities can effectively improve the slow redox kinetics, but the current research often ignores the effect of optimizing the electronic structure of the catalyst on improving charge transfer and adsorption. Here, in this study, Ni-doped monolayer MoS 2 nanosheets are synthesized and used as a catalytic additive for the sulfur cathode. The addition of Ni promotes spin splitting of 4d orbital of Mo, thereby affecting polarization degree of the basal plane sulfur and making it change from a low spin state to a high spin one. This high spin configuration raises the electron energy level and provides an active electron state to react with aluminum polysulfides (AlPSs), which optimizes the adsorption energy. At the same time, it accelerates electron transfer and lowers the energy barrier for the overall conversion of the polysulfides. Benefiting from these features, Al–S batteries based on rationally designed S@Ni-MoS 2 /C cathodes exhibit a high initial capacity (1603.0 mAh g −1 at 0.5 A g −1 ) and extraordinary cycling stability (0.035% capacity decay rate during 2000 cycles). This study showcases a spin-polarized electronic structure control strategy to enhance catalytic activity, providing a viable approach for developing efficient catalysts for practical Al–S batteries.

Aluminum-sulfur batteries↗

The variability of winds over the ocean

The present state of knowledge of the synoptic scale, the mesoscale, and the microscale in describing the winds, especially over the ocean, is summarized both in terms of conventional data and remotely sensed properties and effects of the winds. A description is then given of some of the areas posing problems in modeling each scale and interpreting the various kinds of measurements that are made. It is noted that not much is known about the wind, especially in the mesoscale, that affects the ability to use remotely sensed data in an optimum way.

Pierson, W. J.↗

Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but its future changes and related extremes remain unclear. Here, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that under a high-emission scenario, BSISO convection will shift eastward by ~3° (~300 km) in 2065–2099, driven by moisture profile changes associated with sea surface temperature warming over central-to-eastern Pacific. This eastward-shifted BSISO convection, along with a northward expansion of the westerly jet, strengthens the BSISO teleconnections that extend into broader areas of North America. These changes will increase the BSISO-related heatwave risks by 23% and wildfire risks by 3.5 times over northern North America compared to present-day conditions. The findings underscore the amplification of BSISO’s influence on extreme risks of extreme weather, emphasizing the need for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies for future climates.

BSISO teleconnection↗

Climate Base State Influences on South Asian Monsoon Processes Derived From Analyses of E3SMv2 and CESM2

Abstract The effects of differences in climate base state are related to processes associated with the present‐day South Asian monsoon simulations in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Though tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean base state sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are over 1°C cooler in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2, and there is an overall reduction of Indian sector precipitation, the pattern of South Asian monsoon precipitation is similar in the two models. Monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections, dynamically linked by the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric circulation, are reduced in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. In E3SMv2, this is related to cooler tropical SSTs and ENSO amplitude that is less than half that in CESM2. Comparison to a tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment shows, to a first order, that the base state SSTs and ENSO amplitude contribute roughly equally to lower amplitude monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections in E3SMv2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud radiative effects significantly increase wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector

Reliable simulation, prediction, and complete theoretical understanding of atmospheric blocking remain challenging despite its significant socio-economic impacts. Generations of climate models have notoriously underestimated blocking frequency, particularly over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Identifying factors controlling blocking frequency and dynamics is therefore essential for improving its simulation. Here, using a cloud-locking experiment, we show that cloud radiative effects (CREs) significantly increase the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking. CREs enhance upstream diabatic source of wave activity, both directly through longwave heating and indirectly through their feedback on latent heating, with the latter playing the dominant role. The resulting increase in the upstream diabatic source feeds into local wave activity downstream and promotes blocking formation. Qualitatively similar results are shown by multi-model experiments with radiatively inactive clouds to longwave radiation, albeit with a larger impact from mean-state changes. The results underscore the necessity of accurately representing cloud-radiation interactions in weather and climate models for improved prediction of blocking events.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

Glacier and Ice Shelves Studies Using Satellite SAR Interferometry

Satellite radar interferometry is a powerful technique to measure the surface velocity and topography of glacier ice. On ice shelves, a quadruple difference technique separates tidal motion from the steady creep flow deformation of ice. The results provide a wealth of information about glacier grounding lines , mass fluxes, stability, elastic properties of ice, and tidal regime. The grounding line, which is where the glacier detaches from its bed and becomes afloat, is detected with a precision of a few tens of meters. Combining this information with satellite radar altimetry makes it possible to measure glacier discharge into the ocean and state of mass balance with greater precision than ever before, and in turn provide a significant revision of past estimates of mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Analysis of creep rates on floating ice permits an estimation of basal melting at the ice shelf underside. The results reveal that the action of ocean water in sub-ice-shelf cavities has been largely underestimated by oceanographic models and is the dominant mode of mass release to the ocean from an ice shelf. Precise mapping of grounding line positions also permits the detection of grounding line migration, which is a fine indicator of glacier change, independent of our knowledge of snow accumulation and ice melting. This technique has been successfully used to detect the rapid retreat of Pine Island Glacier, the largest ice stream in West Antarctica. Finally, tidal motion of ice shelves measured interferometrically provides a modern, synoptic view of the physical processes which govern the formation of tabular icebergs in the Antarctic.

Rignot, Eric↗

Impact of a New Sea Ice Thermodynamic Formulation in the CESM2 Sea Ice Component

Abstract The sea ice component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) contains new “mushy‐layer” physics that simulates prognostic salinity in the sea ice, with consequent modifications to sea ice thermodynamics and the treatment of melt ponds. The changes to the sea ice model and their influence on coupled model simulations are described here. Two simulations were performed to assess the changes in the vertical thermodynamics formulation with prognostic salinity compared to a constant salinity profile. Inclusion of the mushy layer thermodynamics of Turner et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20171 ) in a fully coupled Earth system model produces thicker and more extensive sea ice in the Arctic, with relatively unchanged sea ice in the Antarctic compared to simulations using a constant salinity profile. While this is consistent with the findings of uncoupled ice‐ocean model studies, the role of the frazil and congelation growth is more important in fully coupled simulations. Melt pond drainage is also an important contribution to simulated ice thickness differences as also found in the uncoupled simulations of Turner and Hunke (2015; https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010358 ). However, it is an interaction of the ponds and the snow fraction that impacts the surface albedo and hence the top melt. The changes in the thermodynamics and resulting ice state modify the ice‐ocean‐atmosphere fluxes with impacts on the atmosphere and ocean states, particularly temperature.

Bailey, David A.↗

Variability in Sea Surface Height: A Qualitative Measure for the Meridional Overturning in the North Atlantic

Sea surface height (SSH) from altimeter observations from 1992 on and from modeling results is investigated to determine the modes of variability and the linkages to the state of oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. First the altimeter and model simulated SSH are analyzed using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. They are found to share a similar leading mode where the center of action is along the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current with opposite sign anomalies in the subpolar gyre and in the slope waters along the Eastern Seaboard. The time series of the leading EOF mode from the altimeter data shows that between winters of 1995 and 1996, SSH over the Gulf Stream decreased by about 12cm which change is reproduced by the model simulation. Based on the relationship from the model simulations between the time series of the SSH EOF1 and meridional heat transport, it is suggested that associated with this SSH change in 1995-96, the overturning has slowed down from its heights in the early 90's. Furthermore, it is shown that decadal variability in the leading SSH mode originates from the thermal forcing component. This adds confidence to the qualitative relationship between the state of overturning/meridional heat transport and SSH in the limited area described by the EOF1. SSH variability in the eastern side of the North Atlantic basin, outside the western boundary current region, is determined by local and remote (Rossby waves) wind stress curl forcing.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

Redox state of Earth’s magma ocean and its Venus-like early atmosphere

Exchange between a magma ocean and vapor produced Earth’s earliest atmosphere. Its speciation depends on the oxygen fugacity (fO 2 ) set by the Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ ratio of the magma ocean at its surface. Here, we establish the relationship between fO 2 and Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ in quenched liquids of silicate Earth-like composition at 2173 K and 1 bar. Mantle-derived rocks have Fe 3+ /(Fe 3+ +Fe 2+ ) = 0.037 ± 0.005, at which the magma ocean defines an fO 2 0.5 log units above the iron-wüstite buffer. At this fO 2 , the solubilities of H-C-N-O species in the magma ocean produce a CO-rich atmosphere. Cooling and condensation of H 2 O would have led to a prebiotic terrestrial atmosphere composed of CO 2 -N 2 , in proportions and at pressures akin to those observed on Venus. Present-day differences between Earth’s atmosphere and those of her planetary neighbors result from Earth’s heliocentric location and mass, which allowed geologically long-lived oceans, in-turn facilitating CO 2 drawdown and, eventually, the development of life.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗