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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Constructing a Simulation Surrogate with Partially Observed Output

Gaussian process surrogates are a popular alternative to directly using computationally expensive simulation models. When the simulation output consists of many responses, dimension-reduction techniques are often employed to construct these surrogates. However, surrogate methods with dimension reduction generally rely on complete output training data. This article proposes a new Gaussian process surrogate method that permits the use of partially observed output while remaining computationally efficient. The new method involves the imputation of missing values and the adjustment of the covariance matrix used for Gaussian process inference. The resulting surrogate represents the available responses, disregards the missing responses, and provides meaningful uncertainty quantification. In conclusion, the proposed approach is shown to offer sharper inference than alternatives in a simulation study and a case study where an energy density functional model that frequently returns incomplete output is calibrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Achieving Realistic Runoff in the Western United States with a Land Surface Model Forced by Dynamically Downscaled Meteorology

Abstract In this study, we calibrate a regional climate model’s (RCM) underlying land surface model (LSM). In addition to providing a realistic representation of runoff across the hydroclimatically diverse western United States, this is done to take advantage of the RCM’s ability to physically resolve meteorological forcing data in ungauged regions, and to prepare the calibrated hydrologic model for tight coupling, or the ability to represent land surface–atmosphere interactions, with the RCM. Specifically, we use a 9-km resolution meteorological forcing dataset across the western United States, from the fifth generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) downscaled by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, as an offline forcing for Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP). We detail the steps involved in producing an LSM capable of accurately representing runoff, including physical parameterization selection, parameter calibration, and regionalization to ungauged basins. Based on our model evaluation from 1954 to 2021 for 586 basins with daily natural streamflow, the streamflow bias is reduced from 24.2% to 4.4%, and the median daily Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is improved from 0.12 to 0.36. When validating against basins with monthly natural streamflow data, we obtain a similar reduction in bias and a median monthly NSE improvement from 0.18 to 0.56. In this study, we also discover the optimal setup when using a donor-basin method to regionalize parameters to ungauged basins, which can vary by 0.06 NSE for unique designs of this regionalization method. Significance Statement This study provides useful guidance for improving a land surface model to accurately represent runoff across a spatially extensive and hydroclimatically diverse region (the western United States). The land surface model is updated to represent runoff more accurately at gauged basins, and then additionally updated for basins without observational data using a mathematical approach called the donor-basin method. We make use of a regional climate model’s reanalysis-derived meteorological data and its underlying land surface model to achieve realistic runoff. The calibrated land surface model can thus be tightly coupled in subsequent studies in a manner that should more accurately reflect runoff conditions. Findings from this study will serve as a useful reference for the atmospheric (and hydrologic) modeling communities and their ability to represent large-scale hydrology accurately.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Event generators for high-energy physics experiments

We provide an overview of the status of Monte-Carlo event generators for high-energy particle physics. Guided by the experimental needs and requirements, we highlight areas of active development, and opportunities for future improvements. Particular emphasis is given to physics models and algorithms that are employed across a variety of experiments. These common themes in event generator development lead to a more comprehensive understanding of physics at the highest energies and intensities, and allow models to be tested against a wealth of data that have been accumulated over the past decades. A cohesive approach to event generator development will allow these models to be further improved and systematic uncertainties to be reduced, directly contributing to future experimental success. Event generators are part of a much larger ecosystem of computational tools. They typically involve a number of unknown model parameters that must be tuned to experimental data, while maintaining the integrity of the underlying physics models. Making both these data, and the analyses with which they have been obtained accessible to future users is an essential aspect of open science and data preservation. It ensures the consistency of physics models across a variety of experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Black-box Adversarial Attacks on Low-rank Constrained Neural Networks

Low-rank compression has been shown as an effective tool to reduce parameter counts of convolutional and vision transformer architectures; however, low-rank training often reduces model robustness to adversarial perturbations. In this work, we explore the effects of low-rank training on black-box attacks, where attacked images are generated without knowledge of the low-rank parameters. We find that low-rank training is not sufficient as a black-box defense and can sometimes produce worse than expected as compared to baseline models. Influencing the spectrum of the low-rank models during training, which is known to increase model robustness against white-box attacks, improves black-box performance as well.

Schnake, Stefan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000215183538)↗
DOE OSTI2024

The trailing edge is everywhere: tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Warming of the lower Columbia River , 1853 to 2018

Abstract Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting large-scale pool fire dynamics using an unsteady flamelet- and large-eddy simulation-based model suite

A low-Mach, unstructured, large-eddy-simulation-based, unsteady flamelet approach with a generalized heat loss combustion methodology (including soot generation and consumption mechanisms) is deployed to support a large-scale, quiescent, 5-m JP-8 pool fire validation study. The quiescent pool fire validation study deploys solution sensitivity procedures, i.e., the effect of mesh and time step refinement on capturing key fire dynamics such as fingering and puffing, as mesh resolutions approach O(1) cm. A novel design-order, discrete-ordinate-method discretization methodology is established by use of an analytical thermal/participating media radiation solution on both low-order hexahedral and tetrahedral mesh topologies in addition to quadratic hexahedral elements. Here, the coupling between heat losses and the flamelet thermochemical state is achieved by augmenting the unsteady flamelet equation set with a heat loss source term. Soot and radiation source terms are determined using flamelet approaches for the full range of heat losses experienced in fire applications including radiative extinction. The proposed modeling and simulation paradigm are validated using pool surface radiative heat flux, maximum centerline temperature location, and puffing frequency data, all of which are predicted within 10% accuracy. Simulations demonstrate that under-resolved meshes predict an overly conservative radiative heat flux magnitude with improved comparisons as compared to a previously deployed hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes/eddy dissipation concept-based methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

Abstract The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anyon superconductivity from topological criticality in a Hofstadter–Hubbard model

We argue that the combination of strong repulsive interactions and high magnetic fields can generate electron pairing and superconductivity. Inspired by the large lattice constants of moiré materials, which make large flux per unit cell accessible at laboratory fields, we study the triangular lattice Hofstadter-Hubbard model at one-quarter flux quantum per plaquette, where previous literature has argued that a chiral spin liquid separates a weak-coupling integer quantum Hall phase and a strong-coupling topologically trivial antiferromagnetic insulator at a density of one electron per site. We argue that topological superconductivity emerges upon doping in the vicinity of the integer quantum Hall to chiral spin liquid transition. We employ exact diagonalization and density matrix renormalization group methods to examine this theoretical scenario and find that electronic pairing indeed occurs on both sides of criticality over a remarkably broad range of interaction strengths. On the chiral spin liquid side, our results provide a concrete model realization of the long-hypothesized mechanism of anyon superconductivity. Our study thus establishes a beyond-Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer route to electron pairing in a well-controlled limit, relying crucially on the interplay between electron correlations and band topology.

Hubbard model↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Asymptotic Preserving Discontinuous Galerkin Method for a Linear Boltzmann Semiconductor Model

A key property of the linear Boltzmann semiconductor model is that as the collision frequency tends to infinity, the phase space density $f$ = $f$ ($x, v, t$) converges to an isotropic function $M (v)$$ρ$$(x, t)$, called the drift-diffusion limit, where $M$ is a Maxwellian and the physical density $ρ$ satisfies a second-order parabolic PDE known as the drift-diffusion equation. Numerical approximations that mirror this property are said to be asymptotic preserving. In this paper we build a discontinuous Galerkin method to the semiconductor model, and we show this scheme is both uniformly stable in $ε$, where 1/$ε$ is the scale of the collision frequency, and asymptotic preserving. Here in particular, we discuss what properties the discrete Maxwellian must satisfy in order for the schemes to converge in $ε$ to an accurate $h$-approximation of the drift-diffusion limit. Discrete versions of the drift-diffusion equation and error estimates in several norms with respect to $ε$ and the spacial resolution are also included.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to alleviate Hubbard-model sign problems

Lattice Monte Carlo calculations of interacting systems on nonbipartite lattices exhibit an oscillatory imaginary phase known as the phase or sign problem, even at zero chemical potential. One method to alleviate the sign problem is to analytically continue the integration region of the state variables into the complex plane via holomorphic flow equations. For asymptotically large flow times, the state variables approach manifolds of constant imaginary phase known as Lefschetz thimbles. Furthermore, flowing such variables and calculating the ensuing Jacobian is a computationally demanding procedure. In this paper, we demonstrate that neural networks can be trained to parametrize suitable manifolds for this class of sign problem and drastically reduce the computational cost for different severely afflicted small volume systems. In particular, we apply our method to the Hubbard model on the triangle and tetrahedron, both of which are nonbipartite. At strong interaction strengths and modest temperatures, the tetrahedron suffers from a severe sign problem that cannot be overcome with standard reweighting techniques, while it quickly yields to our method. We benchmark our results with exact calculations and comment on future directions of this work.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic average model methods

We consider the solution of finite-sum minimization problems, such as those appearing in nonlinear least-squares or general empirical risk minimization problems. We are motivated by problems in which the summand functions are computationally expensive and evaluating all summands on every iteration of an optimization method may be undesirable. Here we present the idea of stochastic average model (SAM) methods, inspired by stochastic average gradient methods. SAM methods sample component functions on each iteration of a trust-region method according to a discrete probability distribution on component functions; the distribution is designed to minimize an upper bound on the variance of the resulting stochastic model. We present promising numerical results concerning an implemented variant extending the derivative-free model-based trust-region solver POUNDERS, which we name SAM-POUNDERS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO 2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest

The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO 2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO 2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO 2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO 2 -driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗