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It is established that the nucleonic intensity recorded at the polar stations Thule and McMurdo decreases as the streams associated with co-rotating interaction regions (CIR) overtake the earth. The modulation, however, is limited to only those CIR-streams in which a neutral sheet is imbedded. In contrast to this, all CIR-streams produce geomagnetic storms.
Deep plasmaspheric notches can extend over more than 2 RE in radial distance and 3 hours MLT in the magnetic equatorial plane. They appear to be among the largest evacuated features in the exterior plasmaspheric boundary. They can last for days and exhibit varying structure. It appears that low-density channels resulting from the entrainment of the plasmaspheric convection plume during storm-time recovery share the same origin as notches. Notches rather than channels result from differences in storm- time conditions. Strong convection tends to result in low-density channels, while weaker convection and limited erosion results in notches. Eighteen events in 2000 have been analyzed. Among these events, notches were found to drift as slowly as 72% of corotation. In only one case was a notch found to drift at the corotation rate within measurement error. On average, notches drift at about 2 1.5 hours per day or 90% of the co-rotational rate. Notches also sometimes exhibit an interior structure that appears as an extended prominence of dense plasma, which forms a W-like feature in IMAGEEUV images when viewed from Earth-center. Modeling suggests such features may be caused by small-scale potential structures that result from the localized injection of ring current plasma. Plasma filling rates during recovery and drainage during a minor storm are reported.
Day-to-day and hour-to-hour changes in the large-scale atmospheric and surface features of the planets can now be studied more effectively than previously possible. Since 1969 a network of observatories has obtained almost uninterrupted photographic coverage during all apparitions of Jupiter and Mars, plus some of Venus. Patrol films and catalogs are available to the scientific community. Recent or current analyses include the distribution and motion of clouds on Mars, the development and decay of Martian dust storms, the seasonal, diurnal, and random fluctuations in contrast between adjacent light and dark regions on Mars, the detection of vertical shear in the Jovian atmosphere, the longitudinal oscillation of the Red Spot, the dependence of rotation period on xenographic latitude and on time, the eruption and spread of south equatorial belt disturbances, and the retrograde circulation of the Venus cloud deck.
The long-term prediction of geomagnetic indices that characterize the state of the magnetosphere is discussed. While a prediction of the yearly average sunspot number is simultaneously a prediction of the yearly number of sudden-commencement storms, it is not a prediction of the number of disturbed or quiet half days. Knowledge of the sunspot cycle phase leads to a good estimate of the correlation expected between activity during one 27-day solar rotation period and the next.
The field of sun-climate is beset with an extraordinary number of numerical correlations attempting to relate various periodicities of solar activity with changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Signatures representing climatological variability have been sought for cycles as short as the solar 28-day rotational period up to Milankovich periods of thousands of years, although a majority of correlations have concentrated on the 11-year sunspot and 22-year Hale double sunspot cycles. For the shorter term, parameters including temperature, pressure, winds storm tracks, rainfall, and water levels in rivers and lakes, etc. have been correlated with solar variability. For longer periods, it has been necessary to seek more indirect evidence in ice cores, tree rings, and geologic deep sea cores. Other atmospheric parameters relating to atmospheric electricity and the global electric circuit have also been correlated in similar fashion. Unfortunately, few, if any, of this wide spectrum of numerical correlations have been associated with any viable physical explanation, making most studies in the field an exercise in numerical statistics. More recently, a few suggestions for plausible coupling processes have begun to appear. These, coupled with new and stronger correlations involving selective binning of climatological data sets have injected new life and hope to this field. An overview is given of the historical past and current perspectives, to evaluate possible avenues for defining physical linking processes in the future.
Solar and interplanetary data are examined, taking into account the identification of the heliographic longitudes of the coronal source regions of high speed solar wind (SW) streams by Nolte and Roelof (1973). Nolte and Roelof have 'mapped' the velocities measured near earth back to the sun using the approximation of constant radial velocity. The 'Carrington carpet' for rotations 1597-1616 is shown in a graph. Coronal sources of high speed streams appear in the form of solid black areas. The contours of the stream sources are laid on 'evolutionary charts' of solar active region histories for the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. Questions regarding the interplay of active regions and solar wind are investigated, giving attention to developments during the years 1973, 1974, and 1975.
Coincident Pc 5 and Pc 1 and 2 micropulsations were observed at the synchronous equatorial satellite ATS 1 during the main phase of 11 geomagnetic storms that occurred in 1967. The Pc 1 and 2 oscillations were quasi sinusoidal, with periods of 5-20 sec and amplitudes of 1-2 gammas. Their average polarization was transverse to the ambient magnetic field. The oscillations were elliptical and rotation was to the left in relation to the main field. The observed characteristics suggest that the Pc 1 and 2 activity was due to ion cyclotron resonance of Alfven waves with energetic protons.
Algorithms for the retrieval of atmospheric winds in precipitating systems from downward-pointing, conically-scanning airborne Doppler radars are presented. The focus in the paper is on two radars: the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler(IWRAP) and the High-altitude IWRAP (HIWRAP). The IWRAP is a dual-frequency (Cand Ku band), multi-beam (incidence angles of 30 50) system that flies on the NOAAWP-3D aircraft at altitudes of 2-4 km. The HIWRAP is a dual-frequency (Ku and Kaband), dual-beam (incidence angles of 30 and 40) system that flies on the NASA Global Hawk aircraft at altitudes of 18-20 km. Retrievals of the three Cartesian wind components over the entire radar sampling volume are described, which can be determined using either a traditional least squares or variational solution procedure. The random errors in the retrievals are evaluated using both an error propagation analysis and a numerical simulation of a hurricane. These analyses show that the vertical and along-track wind errors have strong across-track dependence with values of 0.25 m s-1 at nadir to 2.0 m s-1 and 1.0 m s-1 at the swath edges, respectively. The across-track wind errors also have across-track structure and are on average, 3.0 3.5 m s-1 or 10 of the hurricane wind speed. For typical rotated figure four flight patterns through hurricanes, the zonal and meridional wind speed errors are 2 3 m s-1.Examples of measured data retrievals from IWRAP during an eyewall replacement cycle in Hurricane Isabel (2003) and from HIWRAP during the development of Tropical Storm Matthew (2010) are shown.
A self-consistent ring current (RC) model has been developed that couples electron and ion magnetospheric dynamics with the calculation of the electric field. Two new features were taken into account in order to close the self-consistent magnetosphere- ionosphere coupling loop. First, in addition to the RC ions, we solve an electron kinetic equation in our model. Second, using the relation of Galand and Richmond [2001], we calculate the height integrated ionospheric conductances as a function of the precipitated high energy magnetospheric electrons and ions that are produced by our code. To validate the results of our model we simulate the magnetic storm of May 2, 1986, a storm that has has been comprehensively studied, and compare our results with different theoretical approaches. The self-consistent inclusion of the hot electrons and, their effect on the conductance results in deeper penetration of the magnetospheric electric field. In addition, a slight westward rotation of the potential pattern (compared to previous self-consistent results) is evident in the inner magnetosphere. This changes the hot plasma distribution, especially by allowing increased access of plasma sheet ions and electrons to low L shells.
This grant covered the transition period between the ISTP/GGS main mission MAMI work (NAGW5-1097) to the extended mission of GGS/SolaxMax. During this period we concentrated on the following subjects: (1) Ionospheric modeling and in particular the coupling of the ionosphere and the magnetosphere require knowledge of the ionospheric conductances. We have an algorithm to derive these conductances from POLAR UVI or POLAR VIS images. The image analysis requires carefully calibrated measurements, separation of auroral brightness from scattered solar EUV and emissions caused by photoelectrons, and modeling of the auroral conditions, Under this grant we evaluated the various sources of uncertainty that contribute to the conductance calculation by comparing different model approaches and we conducted sensitivity studies. A joint modeling effort between our ionospheric models and a global MHD magnetospheric model with S. Slinker and J. Fedder lead to improved parameterizations for the MHD model. The predictions of that new model were validated using data from ground based instruments, POLAR UVI images, and DMSP satellites. These findings were presented at the GEM meeting in Snowmass, and at the Huntsville modeling workshop in Guntersville. A manuscript for publication is in preparation. A study to evaluate the thermospheric effects of large substorms and storms was con- ducted with the TIE-GCM model. Of particular interest are compositional changes of the thermosphere in the southern hemisphere. Southern hemisphere effects are stronger than those on the northern hemisphere because of the larger offset of the magnetic dipole from the rotational axis. These results were presented at the Huntsville modeling workshop in Guntersville.
A sequence of ATS 3 pictures including the development history of large anvil clouds near Salina, Kansas was enlarged by NASA into 8X negatives which were used to obtain the best quality prints by mixing scan lines in 8 steps to minimize checker-board patterns. These images resulted in the best possible resolution, permitting use to compute the heights of overshooting tops above environmental anvil levels based on cloud shadow relationships along with the techniques of lunar topographic mapping. Of 39 heights computed, 6 were within 15 miles of reported positions of 3 tornadoes. It was found that the tornado proximity tops were mostly less than 5000 ft, with one exception of 7000 ft, suggesting that tornadoes are most likely to occur when overshooting height decreases. In order to simulate surface vortices induced by cloud-scale rotation and updraft fields, a laboratory model was constructed. The model experiment has shown that the rotation or updraft field induces a surface vortex but their combination does prevent the formation of the surface vortex. This research leads to a conclusion that the determination of the cloud-top topography and its time variation is of extreme importance in predicting severe local storms for a period of 0 to 6 hours.
An overview of the Voyager 2 encounter with Neptune is presented, including a brief discussion of the trajectory, the planned observations, and highlights of the results described in the 11 companion papers. Neptune's blue atmosphere has storm systems reminiscent of those in Jupiter's atmosphere. An optically thin methane ice cloud exists near the 1.5-bar pressure level, and an optically thick cloud exists below 3 bars. Neptune's magnetic field is highly tilted and offset from the planet's center; it rotates with a period of 16.11 hours. Two narrow and two broad rings circle the planet; the outermost of these rings has three optically thicker arc segments. Six new moons were discovered in circular prograde orbits, all well inside Triton's retrograde orbit. Triton has a highly reflective and geologically young surface, a thin nitrogen atmosphere, and at least two active geyser-like plumes.
The Earth's plasmasphere is an inner part of the magneteosphere. It is located just outside the upper ionosphere located in Earth's atmosphere. It is a region of dense, cold plasma that surrounds the Earth. Although plasma is found throughout the magnetosphere, the plasmasphere usually contains the coldest plasma. Here's how it works: The upper reaches of our planet's atmosphere are exposed to ultraviolet light from the Sun, and they are ionized with electrons that are freed from neutral atmospheric particles. The results are electrically charged negative and positive particles. The negative particles are electrons, and the positive particles are now called ions (formerly atoms and molecules). If the density of these particles is low enough, this electrically charged gas behaves differently than it would if it were neutral. Now this gas is called plasma. The atmospheric gas density becomes low enough to support the conditions for a plasma around earth at about 90 kilometers above Earth's surface. The electrons in plasma gain more energy, and they are very low in mass. They move along Earth's magnetic field lines and their increased energy is enough to escape Earth's gravity. Because electrons are very light, they don't have to gain too much kinetic energy from the Sun's ultraviolet light before gravity loses its grip on them. Gravity is not all that holds them back, however. As more and more electrons begin to escape outward, they leave behind a growing net positive electric charge in the ionosphere and create a growing net negative electric charge above the ionosphere; an electric field begins to develop (the Pannekoek-Rosseland E-field). Thus, these different interacting charges result in a positively charged ionosphere and negatively charged region of space above it. Very quickly this resulting electric field opposed upward movement of the electrons out of the ionosphere. The electrons still have this increased energy, however, so the electric field doesn't just go away. Instead the ions react to the electric field and are attracted to it. They begin to move upward out of the ionosphere too. Since all this happens on a small scale, it simply looks like the electrons and ions move out of the ionosphere together. Ultimately the effect is that the lighter ions of hydrogen, helium and oxygen are able to escape from the ionosphere. For a planet like Earth with a strong planetary magnetic field, these outward moving particles remain trapped near the planet unless other processes further draw them away and into interplanetary space. As is always the case with nature, there is much more story to tell about this "upwardly mobile" plasma and these other processes. Over only a short time period of hours and days this escaping plasma can, in some places, build up in concentration until an equilibrium is reached where as much plasma flows inward into the ionosphere as flows outward. This "donut shaped" region of cold (about 1 electron volt in energy) plasma encircling the planet is called the plasmasphere. Because of space weather storms (kind of a generic phrase for those other processes) this cold and dense plasmaspheric plasma can actually end up all over the place. Generally, that region of space where plasma from the ionosphere has the time to build up to become identified as the plasmasphere rotates or nearly rotates with the Earth. That region shrinks in size with increased space weather activity and expands or refills during times of inactivity. As it shrinks with increasing activity, some of the plasmasphere is drawn away from its main body (plasmaspheric erosion) in the sunward direction toward the boundary in space between that region dominated by Earth's magnetic field and the much larger region dominated by the Sun's magnetic field. The region dominated by Earth's magnetic field is called the magnetosphere. The larger Sun dominated region is called the heliosphere.
The activity of the Sun alternates between a solar minimum and a solar maximum, the former corresponding to a period of “quieter” status of the heliosphere. During solar minimum, it is in principle more straightforward to follow eruptive events and solar wind structures from their birth at the Sun throughout their interplanetary journey. In this paper, we report analysis of the origin, evolution, and heliospheric impact of a series of solar transient events that took place during the second half of August 2018, that is, in the midst of the late declining phase of Solar Cycle 24. In particular, we focus on two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and a following high-speed stream (HSS) on their way toward Earth and Mars. We find that the first CME impacted both planets, whilst the second caused a strong magnetic storm at Earth and went on to miss Mars, which nevertheless experienced space weather effects from the stream interacting region preceding the HSS. Analysis of remote-sensing and in-situ data supported by heliospheric modeling suggests that CME–HSS interaction resulted in the second CME rotating and deflecting in interplanetary space, highlighting that accurately reproducing the ambient solar wind is crucial even during “simpler” solar minimum periods. Lastly, we discuss the upstream solar wind conditions and transient structures responsible for driving space weather effects at Earth and Mars.
A self-consistent ring current (RC) model has been developed that couples electron and ion magnetospheric dynamics with the calculation of the electric field. Two new features were taken into account in order to close the self-consistent magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling loop. First, in addition to the RC ions, we have solved an electron kinetic equation in our model. Second, using the relation of Galand and Richmond, we have calculated the height integrated ionospheric conductances as a function of the precipitated high energy magnetospheric electrons and ions that are produced by our model. To validate the results of our model we simulate the magnetic storm of May 2, 1986, a storm that has been comprehensively studied by Fok et al., and have compared our results with different theoretical approaches. The self-consistent inclusion of the hot electrons and their effect on the conductance results in deeper penetration of the magnetospheric electric field. In addition, a slight westward rotation of the potential pattern (compared to previous self-consistent results) is evident in the inner magnetosphere. These effects change the hot plasma distribution, especially by allowing increased access of plasma sheet ions and electrons to low L shells.
The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behavior of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating, and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example of Carrington Rotation 2077. We reconstruct the global topology of the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface model (PFSS) and the Schatten current sheet model (SCS) and discuss three empirical relationships for specifying the solar wind conditions near the Sun, namely the Wang–Sheeley (WS) model, the distance from the coronal hole boundary model (DCHB), and the Wang-Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model. By adding uncertainty in the latitude about the sub-Earth point, we select an ensemble of initial conditions and map the solutions to Earth by the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. We assess the forecasting performance from a continuous variable validation and find that the WSA model most accurately predicts the solar wind speed time series (RMSE≈83 km/s). We note that the process of ensemble forecasting slightly improves the forecasting performance of all solar wind models investigated. We conclude that the implemented framework is well suited for studying the relationship between coronal magnetic fields and the properties of the ambient solar wind flow in the near-Earth environment.
We report data from the Cassini radio and plasma wave instrument during the approach and first orbit at Saturn. During the approach, radio emissions from Saturn showed that the radio rotation period is now 10 hours 45 minutes 45 k 36 seconds, about 6 minutes longer than measured by Voyager in 1980 to 1981. In addition, many intense impulsive radio signals were detected from Saturn lightning during the approach and first orbit. Some of these have been linked to storm systems observed by the Cassini imaging instrument. Within the magnetosphere, whistler-mode auroral hiss emissions were observed near the rings, suggesting that a strong electrodynamic interaction is occurring in or near the rings.
The nucleus of comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) passed within 141,000 km of Mars on 19 October 2014. Thus, the cometary coma and the plasma it produces washed over Mars for several hours producing significant effects in the Martian magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. We present observations from Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN's (MAVEN's) particles and field's instruments that show the Martian magnetosphere was severely distorted during the comet's passage. We note four specific major effects: (1) a variable induced magnetospheric boundary, (2) a strong rotation of the magnetic field as the comet approached, (3) severely distorted and disordered ionospheric magnetic fields during the comet's closest approach, and (4) unusually strong magnetosheath turbulence lasting hours after the comet left. We argue that the comet produced effects comparable to that of a large solar storm (in terms of incident energy) and that our results are therefore important for future studies of atmospheric escape, MAVEN's primary science objective.