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DOE OSTI2025

ESMs Latent Space Exploration for Uncertainty Quantification and Spatiotemporal Downscaling

This final report for DOE Award DE-SC0023044 presents advances in two key areas of climate modeling: (1) representative climate model selection and (2) Earth System Model (ESM) downscaling using hybrid AI methods. The first section introduces a reordered, three-stage workflow to select representative GCM runs that more effectively balance historical skill with ensemble spread, validated across Texas, Bihar, and New York. The second section introduces two novel super-resolution frameworks, ViSIR and ViFOR, that integrate Vision Transformers with sinusoidal and Fourier-based implicit neural representations. These models achieve state-of-the-art reconstruction accuracy for ESM variables including surface temperature and heat fluxes. The report includes detailed methodology, benchmarks, and results, demonstrating significant gains in uncertainty quantification, spatial fidelity, and scalability for climate-impact studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unprecedented cloud resolution in a GPU-enabled full-physics atmospheric climate simulation on OLCF’s summit supercomputer

Clouds represent a key uncertainty in future climate projection. While explicit cloud resolution remains beyond our computational grasp for global climate, we can incorporate important cloud effects through a computational middle ground called the Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF), also known as Super Parameterization. This algorithmic approach embeds high-resolution Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) to represent moist convective processes within each grid column in a Global Climate Model (GCM). The MMF code requires no parallel data transfers and provides a self-contained target for acceleration. This study investigates the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model-MMF (E3SM-MMF) code on the OLCF Summit supercomputer at an unprecedented scale of simulation. Hundreds of kernels in the roughly 10K lines of code in the E3SM-MMF CRM were ported to GPUs with OpenACC directives. A high-resolution benchmark using 4600 nodes on Summit demonstrates the computational capability of the GPU-enabled E3SM-MMF code in a full physics climate simulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Kepler-90: Giant Transit-timing Variations Reveal a Super-puff

Exoplanet transit-timing variations (TTVs) caused by gravitational forces between planets can be used to determine planetary masses and orbital parameters. Most of the observed TTVs are small and sinusoidal in time, leading to degeneracies between the masses and orbital parameters. Here we report a TTV analysis of Kepler-90g and Kepler-90h, which exhibit large TTVs up to 25 hr. With optimization, we find a unique solution that allows us to constrain all of the orbital parameters. The best-fit masses for Kepler-90g and 90h are 15.0{sub −0.8}{sup +0.9} M {sub ⊕} (Earth mass) and 203{sub −5}{sup +5}M{sub ⊕}, respectively, with Kepler-90g having an unusually low apparent density of 0.15 ± 0.05 g cm{sup −3}. The uniqueness of orbital parameter solution enables a long-term dynamical integration, which reveals that although their periods are close to 2:3 orbital resonance, they are not locked in resonance, and the configuration is stable over billions of years. The dynamical history of the system suggests that planet interactions are able to raise the eccentricities and break the resonant lock after the initial formation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for Periodic Time Variations of the Solar 8 B Neutrino Flux between 1996 and 2018 in Super-Kamiokande

We report a search for time variations of the solar 8 B neutrino flux using 5804 live days of Super-Kamiokande data collected between May 31, 1996, and May 30, 2018. Super-Kamiokande measured the precise time of each solar neutrino interaction over 22 calendar years to search for solar neutrino flux modulations with unprecedented precision. Periodic modulations are searched for in a dataset comprising five-day interval solar neutrino flux measurements with a maximum likelihood method. We also applied the Lomb-Scargle method to this dataset to compare it with previous reports. The only significant modulation found is due to the elliptic orbit of the Earth around the Sun. The observed modulation is consistent with astronomical data: we measured an eccentricity of (1.53 ± 0.35)%, and a perihelion shift of (−1.5 ± 13.5) days.

astroparticle detectors↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cosmic-ray boosted inelastic dark matter from neutrino-emitting active galactic nuclei

Cosmic rays may scatter off dark matter particles in active galactic nuclei, where both the densities of cosmic rays and dark matter are expected to be very large. These scatterings could yield a flux of boosted dark matter particles directly detectable on Earth, which enhances the sensitivity of dark matter direct detection and neutrino experiments to light and inelastic dark matter models. Here we calculate the cosmic-ray boosted dark matter flux from the neutrino-emitting active galactic nuclei, NGC 1068 and TXS 0506+056, by considering realistic cosmic-ray distributions, deep inelastic scatterings, and mass splittings in the dark sector. From this we derive novel bounds from these sources on light and/or inelastic dark matter models with Super-K and XENONnT. We find that cosmic-ray boosted dark matter from neutrino-emitting active galactic nuclei can test regions of parameter space favored to reproduce the observed relic abundance of dark matter in the Universe, and that are otherwise experimentally inaccessible.

Gustafson, R. Andrew [Virginia Tech.; KEK, Tsukuba↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lightcurves, Rotation Periods, and Colors for Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s First Asteroid Discoveries

We present lightcurves, rotation periods, and colors for the first asteroid discoveries made with the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. These are the first science results derived from the 2103 asteroid discoveries released as part of the Rubin First Look (RFL) media event on 2025 June 23, in which the first LSST Camera commissioning images were released. The ∼340,000 observations in which the discoveries were made span nine nights between 2025 April 21 and May 5. With a limiting single-epoch 5σ depth of ∼23–25 mag and dense temporal sampling under an irregular, commissioning-driven cadence, the RFL observations provide an ideal test bed for determination of rotation periods, including sensitivity to rapid rotation. We model lightcurves and derive rotation periods and colors for the ∼2000 objects. We find 75 main-belt asteroids (MBAs) and one near-Earth object (NEO) with reliable rotation periods spanning 0.031–21.3 hr and a photometric precision in the range of 0.05–0.15 mag. We find 19 superfast rotators with periods shorter than the 2.2 hr spin barrier. Rubin-discovered MBA 2025 MN 45 is the fastest-rotating d > 0.5 km known asteroid with a rotation period of 1.9 minutes; along with NEO 2025 MJ 71 (1.9 minutes) and Rubin-discovered MBAs 2025 MK 41 (3.8 minutes), 2025 MV 71 (13 minutes), and 2025 MG 56 (16 minutes), these five super- to ultrafast rotators join a couple of NEOs as the fastest-spinning subkilometer asteroids known. As this study demonstrates, even in early commissioning, Rubin is successfully probing a previously sparsely sampled region of the subkilometer size−spin rate regime for MBAs.

Greenstreet, Sarah [NSF National Optical-Infrared ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Experimental observations of detached bow shock formation in the interaction of a laser-produced plasma with a magnetized obstacle

The magnetic field produced by planets with active dynamos, like the Earth, can exert sufficient pressure to oppose supersonic stellar wind plasmas, leading to the formation of a standing bow shock upstream of the magnetopause, or pressure-balance surface. Scaled laboratory experiments studying the interaction of an inflowing solar wind analog with a strong, external magnetic field are a promising new way to study magnetospheric physics and to complement existing models, although reaching regimes favorable for magnetized shock formation is experimentally challenging. This paper presents experimental evidence of the formation of a magnetized bow shock in the interaction of a supersonic, super-Alfvenic plasma with a strongly magnetized obstacle at the OMEGA laser facility. The solar wind analog is generated by the collision and subsequent expansion of two counterpropagating, laser-driven plasma plumes. The magnetized obstacle is a thin wire, driven with strong electrical currents. Hydrodynamic simulations using the FLASH code predict that the colliding plasma source meets the criteria for bow shock formation. Spatially resolved, optical Thomson scattering measures the electron number density, and optical emission lines provide a measurement of the plasma temperature, from which we infer the presence of a fast magnetosonic shock far upstream of the obstacle. Proton images provide a measure of large-scale features in the magnetic field topology, and reconstructed path-integrated magnetic field maps from these images suggest the formation of a bow shock upstream of the wire and as a transient magnetopause. Finally, we compare features in the reconstructed fields to two-dimensional MHD simulations of the system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Experimental observations of detached bow shock formation in the interaction of a laser-produced plasma with a magnetized obstacle

The magnetic field produced by planets with active dynamos, like the Earth, can exert sufficient pressure to oppose supersonic stellar wind plasmas, leading to the formation of a standing bow shock upstream of the magnetopause, or pressure-balance surface. Scaled laboratory experiments studying the interaction of an inflowing solar wind analog with a strong, external magnetic field are a promising new way to study magnetospheric physics and to complement existing models, although reaching regimes favorable for magnetized shock formation is experimentally challenging. This paper presents experimental evidence of the formation of a magnetized bow shock in the interaction of a supersonic, super-Alfvenic plasma with a strongly magnetized obstacle at the OMEGA laser facility. The solar wind analog is generated by the collision and subsequent expansion of two counter- propagating, laser-driven plasma plumes. The magnetized obstacle is a thin wire, driven with strong electrical currents. Hydrodynamic simulations using the FLASH code predict that the colliding plasma source meets the criteria for bow shock formation. Spatially resolved, optical Thomson scat- tering measures the electron number density, and optical emission lines provide a measurement of the plasma temperature, from which we infer the presence of a fast magnetosonic shock far upstream of the obstacle. Proton images provide a measure of large-scale features in the magnetic field topology, and reconstructed path-integrated magnetic field maps from these images suggest the formation of a bow shock upstream of the wire and as a transient magnetopause. We compare features in the reconstructed fields to two-dimensional MHD simulations of the system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the Dependence of Simulated Convection on Domain Size in CRMs

Abstract We present a heuristic model to explain the suppression of deep convection in convection‐resolving models (CRMs) with a small number of grid columns, such as those used in super‐parameterized or multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) general circulation models (GCM) of the atmosphere. Domains with few grid columns require greater instability to sustain convection because they force a large convective fraction, driving strong compensating subsidence warming. Updraft dilution, which is stronger for reduced horizontal grid spacing, enhances this effect. Thus, suppression of deep convection in CRMs with few grid columns can be reduced by increasing grid spacing. Radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations using standalone CRM simulations with the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) and using GCM‐coupled CRM simulations with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)‐MMF confirm the heuristic model results.

CRM↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermal Management by Engineering the Alignment of Nanocellulose

One of the grand current research challenges is to improve the energy efficiency of residential and commercial buildings, which cumulatively consume more than 40% of the energy generated globally. In addition to improving the comfort of the inhabitants and mitigating the growing energy consumption problem, new building materials and technologies could provide a safe strategy for geoengineering to mitigate global climate change. Herein, recent progress in developing such advanced materials from nanocellulose, which is often derived from wood or even dirty feedstocks like waste, is reviewed. By using chemical and bacteria-enabled processing, nanocellulose can be used to fabricate broadband photonic reflectors, thermally super-insulating aerogels, solar gain regulators, and low-emissivity coatings, with potential applications in windows, roofs, walls, and other components of buildings envelopes. These material developments draw inspiration from advanced energy management found in nature, such as the nanoporous photonic structures that evolved in cuticles of beetles. Fabrication of such materials takes advantage of mesoscale liquid crystalline self-assembly, which allows for pre-designed control of cellulose nanoparticle orientations at the mesoscale. Finally, with the potential fully realized, such materials could one day transform the current energy-lossy buildings into energy plants on Earth and possibly even enable extraterrestrial habitats.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extending the dark matter reach of water Cherenkov detectors using Jupiter

We propose the first method for water Cherenkov detectors to constrain GeV-scale dark matter (DM) below the solar evaporation mass. While previous efforts have highlighted the Sun and Earth as DM capture targets, we demonstrate that Jupiter is a viable target. Jupiter’s unique characteristics, such as its lower core temperature and significant gravitational potential, allow it to capture and retain light DM more effectively than the Sun, particularly in the mass range below 4 GeV where direct detection sensitivity diminishes. Our calculations provide the first sensitivity estimates to GeV-scale annihilating DM within Jupiter, predicting Hyper-K can reach spin dependent cross sections as low as $𝜎^{SD}_{𝑝⁢𝜒}$ = 2×10 −35 cm 2 for DM masses below 2 GeV. This surpasses current solar limits and direct detection results. We additionally provide estimates for Super-K ORCA, and the IceCube-Upgrade, showing that these experiments could provide complimentary bounds to direct detection experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ultra-fast and Thick Boriding of Geothermal Casing to Enhance Reliability

Harnessing the heat that is continuously generated underneath the Earth’s crust (geothermal) is a clean and renewable source of energy. Geothermal energy can be used to heat and cool buildings, including greenhouses, and to generate electrical power. Compared to other renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, geothermal energy is more reliable because it is available all the time and versatile in its many forms of application and deployment. Nonetheless, the deployment and extensive use of geothermal energy still lags behind other renewable sources due to some technical, but mainly economic challenges. Upfront costs of geothermal power well development are relatively high. Some of this high cost is attributed to the use of expensive construction materials to ensure adequate performance during operation. For example, Inconel 625, super duplex 2507, and titanium alloy materials are used in downhole casings, piping, and other components exposed to brine solution to withstand harsh operating environments (high temperature and corrosive environments). Relatively low-cost carbon steel can be used in many of these components in geothermal power plants; however, they are susceptible to excessive corrosion, thereby limiting their useful lifespan. Ultra-fast boriding (UFB) surface treatment of carbon steel may drastically increase its corrosion resistance thereby providing a cost-effective material solution in geothermal applications. Scientists at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) recently developed a technique to accelerate the boriding process using a high-temperature electrochemical process to produce relatively thick boride layers on various metal and alloy materials in minutes rather than the several hours it takes through the typical pack boriding process; hence, the process is designated UFB. The process uses molten borax salt at 900– 1000°C in an electrochemical cell in which the material to be borided is the cathode and a graphite plate is the anode. Continuous and durable boride layers with thicknesses of 100–300 µm have been produced on a variety of metals and alloys in one hour. Such a surface layer can indeed be a cost-effective pathway to prevent corrosion of casing materials in contact with the chemically aggressive and corrosive geothermal brine fluids.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optical O 2 Sensors Also Respond to Redox Active Molecules Commonly Secreted by Bacteria

From a metabolic perspective, molecular oxygen (O 2 ) is arguably the most significant constituent of Earth’s atmosphere. Nearly every facet of microbial physiology is sensitive to the presence and concentration of O 2 , which is the most favorable terminal electron acceptor used by organisms and also a dangerously reactive oxidant. As O 2 has such sweeping implications for physiology, researchers have developed diverse approaches to measure O 2 concentrations in natural and laboratory settings. Recent improvements to phosphorescent O 2 sensors piqued our interest due to the promise of optical measurement of spatiotemporal O 2 dynamics. However, we found that our preferred bacterial model, Pseudomonas aeruginosa PA14, secretes more than one molecule that quenches such sen sors, complicating O 2 measurements in PA14 cultures and biofilms. Assaying supernatants from cultures of 9 bacterial species demonstrated that this phenotype is common: all super natants quenched a soluble O 2 probe substantially. Phosphorescent O 2 probes are often embedded in solid support for protection, but an embedded probe called O 2 NS was quenched by most supernatants as well. Measurements using pure compounds indicated that quenching is due to interactions with redox-active small molecules, including phena zines and flavins. Uncharged and weakly polar molecules like pyocyanin were especially potent quenchers of O 2 NS. These findings underscore that optical O 2 measurements made in the presence of bacteria should be carefully controlled to ensure that O 2 , and not bacterial secretions, is measured, and motivate the design of custom O 2 probes for specific organisms to circumvent sensitivity to redox-active metabolites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Combined Pre-supernova Alert System with KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande

Preceding a core-collapse supernova (CCSN), various processes produce an increasing amount of neutrinos of all flavors characterized by mounting energies from the interior of massive stars. Among them, the electron antineutrinos are potentially detectable by terrestrial neutrino experiments such as KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande (SK) via inverse beta decay interactions. Once these pre-supernova (pre-SN) neutrinos are observed, an early warning of the upcoming CCSN can be provided. In light of this, KamLAND and SK, both located in the Kamioka mine in Japan, have been monitoring pre-SN neutrinos since 2015 and 2021, respectively. Recently, we performed a joint study between KamLAND and SK on pre-SN neutrino detection. A pre-SN alert system combining the KamLAND detector and the SK detector was developed and put into operation, which can provide a supernova alert to the astrophysics community. Fully leveraging the complementary properties of these two detectors, the combined alert is expected to resolve a pre-SN neutrino signal from a 15 M ⊙ star within 510 pc of the Earth at a significance level corresponding to a false alarm rate of no more than 1 per century. For a Betelgeuse-like model with optimistic parameters, it can provide early warnings up to 12 hr in advance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

SREMI: Super-resolution electromagnetic imaging with single-channel ground-penetrating radar

High-resolution near-surface imaging has important applications in civil engineering, infrastructure inspection, military threat detection, geological characterization, and lunar and planetary exploration. Zero-offset, singlechannel ground penetrating radar (GPR) imaging is an established technique for near-surface target imaging and sensing but often suffers from low spatial resolution and imaging artifacts, especially of deep structures. In response, we formulate the GPR imaging as a dual-sparsity optimization problem, and develop a super-resolution electromagnetic imaging method based on a fast iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithm. We develop our GPR imaging method in the framework of electromagnetic exploding-reflectors simulation theory, therefore the imaging method is computationally efficient. In this work, we demonstrate through synthetic and field data examples that our method can produce sharper, more reliable images with fewer artifacts compared with single-pass reverse-time migration GPR method, thus leading to improved near-surface interpretation and object identification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microstructural and Micro-Chemical Evolutions in the Irradiated UCO Fuel Kernels of AGR-1 and AGR-2 TRISO Fuel Particles

AGR-1 and AGR-2 TRISO fuel particles were fabricated with slightly different fuel kernel chemical compositions, modified fabrication processes, different fuel kernel diameters, and changed 235U enrichments. To correlate those differences with the fuel kernel responses to neutron irradiations in terms of irradiated fuel microstructure, fission products chemical and physical states, and fission gas bubble evolutions, extensive microstructural and analytical characterizations were conducted. The studies used a state of art transmission electron microscopy (TEM) equipped with Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) of four silicon solid-state detectors which have super sensitivity and fast speed. The TEM specimens were prepared from selected AGR-1 and AGR-2 irradiated fuel kernels exposed to safety testing after irradiation. The particles were chosen to represent a representative irradiation conditions with a fuel burnup within the range from 10.8 to 18.6% FIMA, and the time-average volume-average temperatures vary from 1070 to 1287°C. The 235U enrichment was 19.74 wt.% for the AGR1 fuel kernels and 14.03 wt.% for the AGR-2 fuel kernels. The TEM results show that there were significant microstructural reconstructions in the irradiated fuel kernels for both the AGR-1 and AGR-2 fuels. There are four major phases including fuel matrix of UO2 and UC, U2RuC2, and UMoC2 in the irradiated AGR2 fuel kernel. Zr and Nb form solid solution in the UC phase. UMoC2 phase often shows a detectable concentration of Tc. Pd was found to mainly locate in the buffer layer or to be associated with fission gas bubble within the UMoC2 phase. The EDS maps qualitatively show that the rare-earth fission products (Nb, et al.) preferentially reside in the UO2 phase. In contrast, in the irradiated AGR1 fuel kernel, no U2RuC2 or UMoC2 precipitates were positively identified. Instead, there is a high number of rod-shape precipitates enriched with Ru, Tc, Rh, and Pd observed in the fuel kernel center and edge zone. The difference of microstructural and micro-chemical evolutions in irradiated fuel kernels between the AGR-1 and AGR-2 TRISO fuel particle may result from a combined factor of irradiation temperature, fuel geometry and chemical composition. However, the irradiation temperature probably play a more deterministic role. Limited electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) characterizations on the AGR2 fuel kernel show that there is nearly no carbon in the UO2 phase while a small fraction of oxygen was detected in the UC/UMoC2 phase.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Atmospheric pion, kaon, and muon fluxes for sub-orbital experiments

Cosmic rays interacting with the Earth's atmosphere generate extensive air showers, which produce Cherenkov, fluorescence and radio emissions. These emissions are key signatures for detection by ground-based, sub-orbital, and satellite-based telescopes aiming to study high energy cosmic ray and neutrino events. However, detectors operating at ground and balloon altitudes are also exposed to a background of atmospheric charged particles, primarily pions, kaons, and muons, that can mimic or obscure the signals from astrophysical sources. In this work, we use coupled cascade equations to calculate the atmospheric pion, kaon and muon fluxes reaching detectors at various altitudes. Our analysis focuses on energies above 10 GeV, where the influence of the Earth's magnetic field on particle trajectories is minimal. We provide angular and energy-resolved flux estimates and discuss their relevance as background for extensive air shower detection. Furthermore, our results are potentially relevant for interpreting data from current and future balloon-borne experiments such as EUSO-SPB2 and for refining trigger and veto strategies in Cherenkov and fluorescence telescopes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Introduction to Special Section: Machine Learning for Image-based Geologic Interpretation

Image-based geological interpretation has been a labor-intensive and time-consuming process because it requires well-trained geoscientists to identify geological structures, features, and textures from various types of images. These images include scanning electron microscopic images, optical microscopic images, optical photos, resistivity images, seismic volumes, remote-sensing images, etc. With fast-evolving machine learning (ML) technology and computing power in recent decades, computers can achieve nearhuman-level to super-human-level performance with scalable high efficiency in the computer vision field. These technological revolutions facilitated image-based geological interpretation in petroleum exploration and production. For example, a fault picking method applied to 3-D seismic volume data using deep learning can achieve superior performance in comparison to conventional auto-picking methods. In addition, under the new normal of low oil prices, the petroleum industry seeks cost-effective strategies such as automating traditionally labor-intensive processes. Nevertheless, the potential of applying ML to geological image interpretation is still facing a few key challenges including data scarcity, data distribution, poor data and/or label quality, data leakage, learning algorithms, model architecture, training methodologies, testing and evaluation metrics, hyper-parameters optimization, model drift, production deployment, and the like.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗