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Data Files for Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce.This data set includes all files that were produced and applied in the paper Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions [Xiang et al. in review]. The paper is in review as of July 1 2025 in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD). In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-rich integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM’s parameterized representation of total runoff. This dataset contains 2 figure image files (*.png, *jpg) that describe the study site and methods, as well as folders (Figure*.zip) that contain the associated data files (*.csv, *.dat) and python code notebooks (*.ipynb) for figures 3-7 in the paper. Jupyter notebook (*.ipynb) files that produce the figure files using the associated data files will run within a python environment configured with Jupyter Lab or Notebook packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topographic hydro-conditioning to resolve surface depression storage and ponding in a fully distributed hydrologic model

Land surface depressions play a central role in the transformation of rainfall to ponding, infiltration and runoff, yet digital elevation models (DEMs) used by spatially distributed hydrologic models that resolve land surface processes rarely capture land surface depressions at spatial scales relevant to this transformation. Methods to generate DEMs through processing of remote sensing data, such as optical and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) have favored surfaces without depressions to avoid adverse slopes that are problematic for many hydrologic routing methods. Here, in this study, we present a new topographic conditioning workflow, Depression-Preserved DEM Processing (D2P) algorithm, which is designed to preserve physically meaningful surface depressions for depression-integrated and efficient hydrologic modeling. D2P includes several features: (1) an adaptive screening interval for delineation of depressions, (2) the ability to filter out anthropogenic land surface features (e.g., bridges), (3) the ability to blend river smoothing (e.g., a general downslope profile) and depression resolving functionality. From a case study in the Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed, D2P successfully resolved 86% of the ponds at a DEM resolution of 10 m. Topographic conditioning was achieved with minimum impact as D2P reduced the number of modified cells from the original DEM by 51% compared to a conventional algorithm. Furthermore, hydrologic simulation using a D2P processed DEM resulted in a more robust characterization on surface water dynamics based on higher surface water storage as well as an attenuated and delayed peak streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model estimates of dissolved organic carbon, runoff, snowmelt, and snow water equivalent from 1981-2010 across the western Arctic

This dataset contains estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yield (mg C m-2), runoff (mm day-1), snow water equivalent (SWE, mm day-1), and snowmelt (mm day-1) from a simulation of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). The simulation effectively quantifies snowpack accumulation and melt, runoff, and DOC leaching, and broadly capture the seasonal cycle in DOC concentration and mass loadings. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) were used for meteorological forcings. The model outputs are organized by grid and day of the month in gzipped ASCII text files contained within each archived ZIP file. No special software is required to work with these data. The basin and domain information files are also ASCII text. The gridded estimates are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and leachate DOC concentrations and loadings across parts of the western Arctic. A manuscript describing the data and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences (Rawlins et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effectiveness of Residue and Tillage Management on Runoff Pollutant Reduction from Agricultural Areas

Highlights No-till and no-till residue systems were effective in reducing runoff particulate and total nutrients but increased dissolved nutrients. Maintaining >30% residue cover reduced most runoff constituents, irrespective of no-till or tillage. No-till-residue prevented runoff nutrient losses and benefitted farm revenue by avoiding tillage. Abstract. Reduced tillage management conservation practices (No-till and Reduced-till) are widely adopted in agriculture; however, understanding their overall effectiveness for water quality protection is challenging. A meta-analysis was conducted to understand and quantify the effectiveness of residue and tillage management on runoff, sediment, and nutrient losses from agricultural fields. Annual runoff and the associated sediment, and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loads were compiled from 60 peer reviewed research articles published across the United States and Canada. A total of 1575 site-years of data were categorized into tillage (<30% surface cover), no-tillage (<30% surface cover), tillage with residue (>30% surface cover), no-tillage with residue (>30% surface cover), and pasture management. No-tillage, no-tillage-residue, and tillage-residue managements were evaluated for their effectiveness in reducing runoff, nutrients, and sediment loads compared to tillage. Synthesized and surveyed corn yield data were used to evaluate the economic cost effectiveness of no-tillage-residue management with respect to tillage. Across the site years (1968-2019) studied, median runoff depth for no-tillage and no-tillage-residue were 84% and 70% greater than tillage and tillage-residue management, respectively. No-tillage-residue management had up to 86% less sediment losses than tillage systems, on average, for both >30% and <30% surface cover. No-tillage-residue management was most effective, with a positive performance effectiveness of 65% to 90% in controlling sediments, particulate, and total nutrient losses in runoff compared to tillage. Cost effectiveness analysis revealed the benefits of no-tillage-residue management in reducing nutrient loads and increasing net-farm revenue by avoiding tillage operational costs. Except for dissolved phosphorus, no-tillage-residue management cost effectiveness for sediments and nutrient loads ranged from negative $6 to negative $102 per every Mg or kg of load reduction, indicating it had both economic and environmental benefits compared to tillage management. Overall, these results indicate that over the long-term, no-tillage and tillage, combined with greater than 30% residue cover, can effectively reduce sediment and nutrient losses. This work highlights the importance of crop residues on the soil surface to reduce runoff losses, even in no-tillage systems. Keywords: Conservation tillage, No-tillage, Residue cover, Tillage, Water quality.

Agriculture↗

Regional patterns in hydrologic response, a new three-component metric for hydrograph analysis and implications for ecohydrology, Northwest Volcanic Aquifer Study Area, USA

Spatial patterns of hydrologic response were examined for the Northwest Volcanic Aquifer Study Area (NVASA). The utility of established hydrograph-separation methods for assessing hydrologic response in permeable volcanic terranes was assessed and a new three-component metric for hydrograph analysis was developed. The new metric, which partitions streamflow into subcomponents defined by the timescales of hydrologic response (e.g., fast-runoff, intermediate-interflow and slow-baseflow), was used to gain a fundamental understanding of the regional hydrology, investigate sub-regional differences, influencing factors, and ecohydrological implications. The combined effects of NVASA’s physiography, climate and geology create a strongly coupled surface-groundwater system that produces copious baseflow and limited quantities of runoff and interflow. Patterns of hydrologic response are influenced by the type and rate of precipitation and permeability of the underlying geology. Under variable precipitation conditions the hydrologic response of volcanic terranes with similar permeability and subsurface-storage capacity can be significantly different. From a water management and ecohydrology perspective, understanding regional patterns of hydrologic response and sub-regional differences is fundamental. Results indicate that minimum-flow methods provide the most conservative estimate of baseflow and may be the most robust for filtering out snowmelt bias in baseflow estimates. Baseflow contributes ~75% of the perennial streamflow across the NVASA and represents a critical component of the regional water supply that provides critical cold-water habitat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Systematic Evaluation of Atmospheric Forcing, Surface Datasets, and Mesh Effects on Kilometer-Scale Land Surface and River Modeling

Earth system models are advancing toward kilometer-scale resolution to capture local climate impacts and extremes. High-resolution land and river modeling depends on multiple factors, including mesh, surface datasets, and atmospheric forcing, but their relative effects at kilometer scales remain unquantified. We evaluated five Energy Exascale Earth System Model land and river configurations over the Mid-Atlantic region using two mesh (1/8° structured versus variable-resolution unstructured mesh), two surface datasets (default versus newly developed), and three atmospheric forcings (NLDAS2, MSWX, GSWP). Evaluation against satellite, reanalysis, and in situ benchmarks across water, energy, and carbon cycles quantifies how these factors affect model performance. Forcing selection produces the largest bias reductions (12-99% across variables), followed by surface datasets (7-75%) and mesh (up to 21%). Forcing effects vary by variable, with MSWX reducing biases for snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, albedo, temperature, and gross primary productivity, GSWP for snow cover and runoff, and NLDAS for soil moisture and streamflow. The use of newly developed surface datasets improves gross primary productivity (58% bias reduction) and evapotranspiration but increase soil moisture and albedo biases due to current modeling limitations. Variable-resolution unstructured mesh improves the simulation of small-basin streamflow through better capturing drainage networks, though mesh minimally affects other land variables. These findings provide important guidance for high-resolution modeling development and actionable science.

Land and River modeling↗

Disentangling the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) V2 – a case study in the Pantanal region

Abstract. Streamflow variability plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics and sustainability of Earth's ecosystems, which can be simulated and projected by a river routing model coupled with a land surface model. However, the simulation of streamflow at large scales is subject to considerable uncertainties, primarily arising from two related processes: runoff generation (hydrological process) and river routing (hydraulic process). While both processes have impacts on streamflow variability, previous studies only calibrated one of the two processes to reduce biases in the simulated streamflow. Calibration focusing only on one process can result in unrealistic parameter values to compensate for the bias resulting from the other process; thus other water-related variables remain poorly simulated. In this study, we performed several experiments with the land and river components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) over the Pantanal region to disentangle the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in coupled land–river simulations. Our results show that the generation of subsurface runoff is the most important factor for streamflow variability contributed by the runoff generation process, while floodplain storage effect and main-channel roughness have significant impacts on streamflow variability through the river routing process. We further propose a two-step procedure to robustly calibrate the two processes together. The impacts of runoff generation and river routing on streamflow are appropriately addressed with the two-step calibration, which may be adopted by developers of land surface and earth system models to improve the modeling of streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

Abstract Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends.

Geology↗

Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of potential future climate change on flood regimes, floodplain protection, and electricity infrastructures across the Conasauga River watershed in the southeastern United States through ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling. The ensemble streamflow scenarios were simulated by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) driven by (1) 1981–2012 Daymet meteorological observations and (2) 11 sets of downscaled global climate models (GCMs) during the 1966–2005 historical and 2011–2050 future periods. Surface inundation was simulated using a GPU-accelerated Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) hydrodynamic model. A total of 9 out of the 11 GCMs exhibit an increase in the mean ensemble flood inundation areas. Moreover, at the 1 % annual exceedance probability level, the flood inundation frequency curves indicate a ∼ 16 km2 increase in floodplain area. The assessment also shows that even after flood-proofing, four of the substations could still be affected in the projected future period. The increase in floodplain area and substation vulnerability highlights the need to account for climate change in floodplain management. Overall, this study provides a proof-of-concept demonstration of how the computationally intensive hydrodynamic inundation modeling can be used to enhance flood frequency maps and vulnerability assessment under the changing climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chronological changes in soil biogeochemical properties of the glacier foreland of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard, attributed to soil-forming factors

We report that Glacier forelands provide an excellent opportunity to investigate vegetation succession and soil development along the chronosequence; however, there are few studies on soil biogeochemical changes from environmental factors, aside from time. This study aimed to investigate soil development and biogeochemical changes in the glacier foreland of Midtre Lovenbreen, Svalbard, by considering various factors, including time. Eighteen vegetation and soil variables were measured at 38 different sampling sites of varying soil age, depth, and glacio-fluvial activity. Soil organic matter (SOM) was quantitatively measured, and the compositional changes in SOM were determined following size-density fractionation. In the topsoil, the soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N) content was found to increase along the soil chronosequence and were highly correlated with vegetation-associated variables. These findings suggest that plant-derived material was the main driver of the light fraction of SOM accumulation in the topsoil. The heavy fractions of SOM were composed of microbially transformed organic compounds, eventually contributing to SOM stabilization within short 90-yr deglaciation under harsh climatic conditions. In addition to time, the soil vertical profiles showed that other environmental parameters, also affected the soil biogeochemical properties. The high total phosphorous (P) content and electrical conductivity in the topsoil were attributed to unweathered subglacial materials and a considerable amount of inorganic ions from subglacial meltwater. The high P and magnesium content in the subsoil were attributed to parent materials, while the high sodium and potassium content in the surface soil were a result of sea-salt deposition. Glacio-fluvial runoff hampered ecosystem development by inhibiting vegetation development and SOM accumulation. This study emphasizes the importance of considering various soil-forming factors, including parent/subglacial materials, aeolian deposition, and glacio-fluvial runoff, as well as soil age, to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the ecosystem development in glacier forelands.

glacio-fluvial runoff↗

Functionalized Cellular Magmatics

We are pioneering the development of fundamental and applied research related to engineered cellular magmatics (ECM) technology. Over the course of our first year, we developed the methodology and measured the effects of various additives on ECM properties. We demonstrated the ability to control the phase and morphology of post-process secondary minerals on ECMs based on starting conditions and compositions. Both achievements are critical to advancing the use of ECMs for applications such as water filtration and runoff remediation. We established the ability to grow various microbiologic consortia on ECM surfaces as well as a process that allows industrial scaling of the technology for rapid field deployment in applications such as the cleanup of fossil fuel contamination. Furthermore, this biotechnology also has potential application in the nascent fields of biomining of precious metals and bioremediation of toxic heavy metals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) (Field Campaign Report)

Mountains are the natural water towers of the world, effectively turning water vapor into readily available fresh water through precipitation, snowpack, and runoff. They contribute disproportionately to precipitation over land, but are under-observed, leading to large gaps in the scientific understanding of convection, extreme precipitation and weather, and interactions between atmospheric circulation, radiation, and land-surface conditions. The mountain hydrometeorology community has repeatedly called for integrated atmospheric and land observations of water and energy budgets in complex terrain that span these scales to establish benchmarks against which scale-dependent models can be further developed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison

Abstract. This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) Science Plan

Mountains are the natural water towers of the world, effectively turning water vapor into readily available fresh water through precipitation, snowpack, and runoff. Unfortunately, Earth system models (ESMs) have persistently been unable to predict the timing and availability of water resources from mountains because the source(s) of model error are difficult to isolate in complex terrain with limited atmospheric or land-surface observations. Further complications arise from the gross scale mismatch between ESM grid box sizes and the relevant scales of mountainous hydrological processes. The mountain hydrometeorology community has repeatedly called for integrated atmospheric and land observations of water and energy budgets in complex terrain that span these scales to establish benchmarks against which scale-dependent models can be further developed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy‐Water Asynchrony Principally Determines Water Available for Runoff From Snowmelt in Continental Montane Forests

ABSTRACT Changes in the volume, rate, and timing of the snowmelt water pulse have profound implications for seasonal soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater recharge, and downstream water availability, especially in the context of climate change. Here, we present an empirical analysis of water available for runoff using five eddy covariance towers located in continental montane forests across a regional gradient of snow depth, precipitation seasonality, and aridity. We specifically investigated how energy‐water asynchrony (i.e., snowmelt timing relative to atmospheric demand), surface water input intensity (rain and snowmelt), and observed winter ET (winter AET) impact multiple water balance metrics that determine water available for runoff (WAfR). Overall, we found that WAfR had the strongest relationship with energy‐water asynchrony (adjusted r 2 = 0.52) and that winter AET was correlated to total water year evapotranspiration but not to other water balance metrics. Stepwise regression analysis demonstrated that none of the tested mechanisms were strongly related to the Budyko‐type runoff anomaly (highest adjusted r 2 = 0.21). We, therefore, conclude that WAfR from continental montane forests is most sensitive to the degree of energy‐water asynchrony that occurs. The results of this empirical study identify the physical mechanisms driving variability of WAfR in continental montane forests and are thus broadly relevant to the hydrologic management and modelling communities.

Webb, Ryan William↗

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R. [Lawrence Berkeley Nati↗

Urban wash-off of tire wear particles

Tire wear particles (TWPs) are an important class of microplastics due to their toxicity and abundance. Because most TWPs are generated on impervious road surfaces, urban wash-off is the critical first phase of waterborne transport from their zone of production to stormwater drainage. However, little is known about the driving factors behind their mobilization. In this study, we use a rainfall simulator to investigate how surface roughness, rainfall intensity, and surface slope affect wash-off behaviors of TWPs. We also analyze how the size and shape of mobilized TWPs change over the course of simulated storm events. We found that low surface roughness, high rainfall intensity (most significant factor), and low slope result in the most rapid conveyance of TWP load. On average, large particles (>1000 µm) travelled faster than small particles (<125 µm). Particle shape explained a very small amount of variance in TWP wash-off velocity but was found to be more important under higher surface roughness conditions. In addition to wash-off velocity, we found similar conditions controlled the percent mobilization of TWPs. Low surface roughness and high rainfall intensity resulting in higher TWP wash-off rates is consistent with mineral sediment wash-off behavior. Conversely, low surface slope and large particle size leading to faster conveyance is directly opposed to mineral sediment wash-off. Our findings suggest drag-dominated flow and that sufficient runoff depth is the most important parameter governing TWP wash-off. These findings are important first steps to understanding wash-off behaviors of TWPs and informing future modeling efforts and mitigation strategies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A Multicomponent Reactive Transport Model for Integrated Surface‐Subsurface Hydrology Problems

Abstract Despite the widespread use of integrated hydrology models in a variety of applications, consideration of multicomponent reactive transport is still not common. The implementation of these processes requires coupling transport at the surface‐subsurface interface and efficient solution of the non‐linear geochemical model that is consistent with the integrated hydrology solution. The Advanced Terrestrial Simulator provides a flexible multiphysics framework that facilitated this process. In this work, the integrated reactive transport process kernel (PK) was weakly coupled to the integrated hydrology PK. In turn, integrated transport and reactions were coupled using an operator splitting approach. This splitting enabled an explicit solution of the integrated transport problem, including a novel algorithm to calculate exchange fluxes across the surface‐subsurface interface and a point‐by‐point solution of the geochemical problem. Geochemical capabilities were added using well‐established external codes, but rather than using a custom interface to each, a generic interface was used that clearly specifies the variables and operations used by the chemistry PK. The implementation is demonstrated with two example simulations: transport of a tracer in a soil column as it saturates over time and water ponds on the surface and reactive transport in a hillslope driven by successive wet‐dry cycles that result in infiltration, runoff and exfiltration processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗