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NASA NTRS1985

Spaceborne power systems preference analyses. Volume 2: Decision analysis

Sixteen alternative spaceborne nuclear power system concepts were ranked using multiattribute decision analysis. The purpose of the ranking was to identify promising concepts for further technology development and the issues associated with such development. Four groups were interviewed to obtain preference. The four groups were: safety, systems definition and design, technology assessment, and mission analysis. The highest ranked systems were the heat-pipe thermoelectric systems, heat-pipe Stirling, in-core thermionic, and liquid-metal thermoelectric systems. The next group contained the liquid-metal Stirling, heat-pipe Alkali Metal Thermoelectric Converter (AMTEC), heat-pipe Brayton, liquid-metal out-of-core thermionic, and heat-pipe Rankine systems. The least preferred systems were the liquid-metal AMTEC, heat-pipe thermophotovoltaic, liquid-metal Brayton and Rankine, and gas-cooled Brayton. The three nonheat-pipe technologies selected matched the top three nonheat-pipe systems ranked by this study.

Smith, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Lunar Dust Simulant in Mechanical Component Testing - Paradigm and Practicality

Due to the uniquely harsh lunar surface environment, terrestrial test activities may not adequately represent abrasive wear by lunar dust likely to be experienced in mechanical systems used in lunar exploration. Testing to identify potential moving mechanism problems has recently begun within the NASA Engineering and Safety Center Mechanical Systems Lunar Dust Assessment activity in coordination with the Exploration Technology and Development Program Dust Management Project, and these complimentary efforts will be described. Specific concerns about differences between simulant and lunar dust, and procedures for mechanical component testing with lunar simulant will be considered. In preparing for long term operations within a dusty lunar environment, the three fundamental approaches to keeping mechanical equipment functioning are dust avoidance, dust removal, and dust tolerance, with some combination of the three likely to be found in most engineering designs. Methods to exclude dust from contact with mechanical components would constitute mitigation by dust avoidance, so testing seals for dust exclusion efficacy as a function of particle size provides useful information for mechanism design. Dust of particle size less than a micron is not well documented for impact on lunar mechanical components. Therefore, creating a standardized lunar dust simulant in the particulate size range of ca. 0.1 to 1.0 micrometer is useful for testing effects on mechanical components such as bearings, gears, seals, bushings, and other moving mechanical assemblies. Approaching actual wear testing of mechanical components, it is beneficial to first establish relative wear rates caused by dust on commonly used mechanical component materials. The wear mode due to dust within mechanical components, such as abrasion caused by dust in grease(s), needs to be considered, as well as the effects of vacuum, lunar thermal cycle, and electrostatics on wear rate.

Jett, T.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Assessment of the impact of dipped guideways on urban rail transit systems: Ventilation and safety requirements

The ventilation and fire safety requirements for subway tunnels with dipped profiles between stations as compared to subway tunnels with level profiles were evaluated. This evaluation is based upon computer simulations of a train fire emergency condition. Each of the tunnel configurations evaluated was developed from characteristics that are representative of modern transit systems. The results of the study indicate that: (1) The level tunnel system required about 10% more station cooling than dipped tunnel systems in order to meet design requirements; and (2) The emergency ventilation requirements are greater with dipped tunnel systems than with level tunnel systems.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Survey Protocol to Assess Meaningfulness and Usefulness of Automated Topic Finding in the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System

Context: The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants and other involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in a number of ways including entry into an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins and For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. Key to these publications are the timely processing (de-identification, coding and summarization) of new reports, which is currently done by ASRS expert safety analysts. Thus, we believe topic modelling could decrease effort in ASRS, if topics are comprehensible. Aim: We propose a methodology to evaluate whether automated topic finding using topic modelling provides meaningful and useful topics. Method: We extend the total error survey methodology to evaluate user topic comprehension of machine learning outputs. To accomplish this we performed a literature review to identify existing methods and define a construct for topic comprehension, utilizing existing ASRS synopsis writing practices to more precisely define meaningfulness and usefulness. Results: A survey protocol was created that addresses the limitations of other survey protocols found in the literature review, which we found lacking in rationale and clear protocol definition. Conclusion: The surveying of user understanding in machine learning outputs presents challenges due to the explosion of parameters to control for and the lack of systematic approach presented in the literature. More reproducible work and survey protocols are needed in the literature and our work is one step towards that direction.

topic finding↗

NASA NTRS2013

Work Practice Simulation of Complex Human-Automation Systems in Safety Critical Situations: The Brahms Generalized berlingen Model

The transition from the current air traffic system to the next generation air traffic system will require the introduction of new automated systems, including transferring some functions from air traffic controllers to on-board automation. This report describes a new design verification and validation (V&V) methodology for assessing aviation safety. The approach involves a detailed computer simulation of work practices that includes people interacting with flight-critical systems. The research is part of an effort to develop new modeling and verification methodologies that can assess the safety of flight-critical systems, system configurations, and operational concepts. The 2002 Ueberlingen mid-air collision was chosen for analysis and modeling because one of the main causes of the accident was one crew's response to a conflict between the instructions of the air traffic controller and the instructions of TCAS, an automated Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System on-board warning system. It thus furnishes an example of the problem of authority versus autonomy. It provides a starting point for exploring authority/autonomy conflict in the larger system of organization, tools, and practices in which the participants' moment-by-moment actions take place. We have developed a general air traffic system model (not a specific simulation of Überlingen events), called the Brahms Generalized Ueberlingen Model (Brahms-GUeM). Brahms is a multi-agent simulation system that models people, tools, facilities/vehicles, and geography to simulate the current air transportation system as a collection of distributed, interactive subsystems (e.g., airports, air-traffic control towers and personnel, aircraft, automated flight systems and air-traffic tools, instruments, crew). Brahms-GUeM can be configured in different ways, called scenarios, such that anomalous events that contributed to the Überlingen accident can be modeled as functioning according to requirements or in an anomalous condition, as occurred during the accident. Brahms-GUeM thus implicitly defines a class of scenarios, which include as an instance what occurred at Überlingen. Brahms-GUeM is a modeling framework enabling "what if" analysis of alternative work system configurations and thus facilitating design of alternative operations concepts. It enables subsequent adaption (reusing simulation components) for modeling and simulating NextGen scenarios. This project demonstrates that BRAHMS provides the capacity to model the complexity of air transportation systems, going beyond idealized and simple flights to include for example the interaction of pilots and ATCOs. The research shows clearly that verification and validation must include the entire work system, on the one hand to check that mechanisms exist to handle failures of communication and alerting subsystems and/or failures of people to notice, comprehend, or communicate problematic (unsafe) situations; but also to understand how people must use their own judgment in relating fallible systems like TCAS to other sources of information and thus to evaluate how the unreliability of automation affects system safety. The simulation shows in particular that distributed agents (people and automated systems) acting without knowledge of each others' actions can create a complex, dynamic system whose interactive behavior is unexpected and is changing too quickly to comprehend and control.

complex systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Creating Formal Characterizations of Routine Contingency Management in Commercial Aviation

The identification, modelling, and analysis of root causes of accidents and incidents dominate conventional safety management approaches. However, the effect of humans’ safety-producing behavior on the overall resilience of the system is often neglected. Additionally, emerging aviation markets are giving rise to concepts of operation, such as urban air mobility and optionally piloted air cargo operations, that are leading to a shift in locus of control between humans and automation. Without an understanding of the human contribution to safety, it is difficult to assess the effects of these novel role allocations on overall system safety. In this work, safety-producing behaviors are identified and abstracted into resilient performance strategies. Production rules that encapsulate these strategies are then generated and classified in the Soar cognitive architecture. The strategies are then applied to a remotely-operated air cargo example to demonstrate how safe learning is facilitated. The learned rules and strategies are then formally verified.

Safety Critical Systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lander Lighting Solution to Reduce Pilot & Autonomous Approach Errors

The south pole lighting environment will have harsh low inclination sunlight, making overhead judgement of surface features difficult. Autonomous solutions are great, however, the need for visual monitoring and independent go/no-go decisions remain. Our project proposes that lunar landing systems will be better served by including a powerful landing light system that improves visibility of surfaces from overhead by illuminating the ground at critical distances for the crew to make last minute decisions regarding an approach. The project utilized computer-based optical modeling software to predict requirements for a potential landing light system. The analysis based the lamp prediction from commercially available LED chip sets and lamp optics. The goal was to illustrate a method to raise the surface contrast of a landing site within an acceptable contrast threshold for most camera systems and human observers to recognize hazards that would not be noticed with low inclination sunlight alone. The Apollo lunar landings benefitted from overhead sun or dark conditions. The surface lighting at the Lunar South Pole is a harsh environment where surfaces are lit from a low inclination angle by the sun (from the side). This change in lighting condition precipitates a need for updated lunar landing systems that facilitate improved recognition of landing sites, and thereby increase pilot awareness of landing hazards. The reliance on LIDAR and other autonomous mechanisms alone is risky given the known usage of visual monitoring for operator concurrence on current spacecraft programs and present-day autonomous land-based vehicles. Visual monitoring via cameras or windows requires the surface contrast to be within 3 orders of magnitude for reasonable recognition of objects. Artificial overhead illumination, when sufficiently sized, provides a means to even out contrast problems created by low inclination sunlight, potentially reducing piloting errors. Current vehicle requirements do not specify this type of guidance for the purpose of increasing mission success. An optical ray-trace simulation model was developed in Zemax Optics Studio to predict the best combination of LED power, LED optics, lamp quantity, and lamp location to raise the surface contrast to within 2 orders of magnitude from 3 orders required to further increased visibility and reduce risk. The project considered the following design constraints: potential base diameter of lander, approach distance(s) for a go-no-go decision point (200 meter), solar inclination angle (2-7), lunar surface reflectance (10%), LED chip sets, LED focusing optics, LED power, lamp quantity, lamp locations, and illumination diameter of lunar surface landing zone. The results can be used to establish minimum design constraints for vehicle landing light systems. With a solar inclination angle ranging from 2-7 degrees, the horizontal illumination of the lunar surface is attenuated by about 10% when compared to overhead illumination from the Sun. This modifies the sun's maximum of 130,000 lux to 13,000 lux horizontal illuminance. The artificial lighting system was designed to provide an 18-meter-wide illumination zone, to create viewing clearances around a 6-meter-wide lander. The system provides an average illuminance of 300 lux, meeting the 2 orders of magnitude criteria. The solution utilized modern Chip On Board LEDs, that each utilized 17 watts, with focusing Total Internal Reflection (TIR) lenses. A lighting system of 300 LEDs was arrayed along the "bottom" of a “lander”. With 17 watts per LED, the system is estimated to require 5100 watts. This is a large amount of power, but it would only be needed during critical phases during the landing. LED lighting systems can be dimmed, and it is assumed that as the lander arrives closer to the landing site, the lighting system power can be adjusted as needed to produce the necessary surface illuminance. The designed reduction of contrast improves reliability of safety assessments using real time visible light camera systems and out the window viewing by the crew.

T A Clark↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Establishing the Assurance Efficacy of Automated Risk Mitigation Strategies

Verification and validation of increasingly autonomous aviation systems is a major challenge. Traditional techniques for the assurance of high-confidence, safety-critical systems are not equipped to handle the complexity, uncertainty, and lack of predictability inherent in non-deterministic systems. Techniques such as run time monitoring, formal methods, and testing and simulation have been applied to some effect, but it is difficult to properly assess the success of such measures. The authors propose the concept of Assurance Efficacy to address this gap. Assurance Efficacy is seen as a parameter, criteria, or perspective by which to evaluate, identify and explore safety risk mitigation strategies and operational assurance architectures. Validation of the utility of this concept through flight testing is a first step in determining its potential role in assessing the overall safety of complex, increasingly autonomous systems that cannot be fully assured in the design phase.

system safety↗

NASA NTRS2002

Safety on Earth From MARSS

ENSCO, Inc., developed the Meteorological and Atmospheric Real-time Safety Support (MARSS) system for real-time assessment of meteorological data displays and toxic material spills. MARSS also provides mock scenarios to guide preparations for emergencies involving meteorological hazards and toxic substances. Developed under a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract with Kennedy Space Center, MARSS was designed to measure how safe NASA and Air Force range safety personnel are while performing weather sensitive operations around launch pads. The system augments a ground operations safety plan that limits certain work operations to very specific weather conditions. It also provides toxic hazard prediction models to assist safety managers in planning for and reacting to releases of hazardous materials. MARSS can be used in agricultural, industrial, and scientific applications that require weather forecasts and predictions of toxic smoke movement. MARSS is also designed to protect urban areas, seaports, rail facilities, and airports from airborne releases of hazardous chemical substances. The system can integrate with local facility protection units and provide instant threat detection and assessment data that is reportable for local and national distribution.

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NASA NTRS2016

An Investigation of Proposed Techniques for Quantifying Confidence in Assurance Arguments

The use of safety cases in certification raises the question of assurance argument sufficiency and the issue of confidence (or uncertainty) in the argument's claims. Some researchers propose to model confidence quantitatively and to calculate confidence in argument conclusions. We know of little evidence to suggest that any proposed technique would deliver trustworthy results when implemented by system safety practitioners. Proponents do not usually assess the efficacy of their techniques through controlled experiment or historical study. Instead, they present an illustrative example where the calculation delivers a plausible result. In this paper, we review current proposals, claims made about them, and evidence advanced in favor of them. We then show that proposed techniques can deliver implausible results in some cases. We conclude that quantitative confidence techniques require further validation before they should be recommended as part of the basis for deciding whether an assurance argument justifies fielding a critical system.

Graydon, Patrick J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Qualitative Future Safety Risk Identification an Update

The purpose of this report is to document the results of a high-level qualitative study that was conducted to identify future aviation safety risks and to assess the potential impacts to the National Airspace System (NAS) of NASA Aviation Safety research on these risks. Multiple external sources (for example, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Flight Safety Foundation, the National Research Council, and the Joint Planning and Development Office) were used to develop a compilation of future safety issues risks, also referred to as future tall poles. The primary criterion used to identify the most critical future safety risk issues was that the issue must be cited in several of these sources as a safety area of concern. The tall poles in future safety risk, in no particular order of importance, are as follows: Runway Safety, Loss of Control In Flight, Icing Ice Detection, Loss of Separation, Near Midair Collision Human Fatigue, Increasing Complexity and Reliance on Automation, Vulnerability Discovery, Data Sharing and Dissemination, and Enhanced Survivability in the Event of an Accident.

future aviation safety risk↗

NASA NTRS2008

NASA Langley's Formal Methods Research in Support of the Next Generation Air Transportation System

This talk will provide a brief introduction to the formal methods developed at NASA Langley and the National Institute for Aerospace (NIA) for air traffic management applications. NASA Langley's formal methods research supports the Interagency Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) effort to define and develop the 2025 Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS). The JPDO was created by the passage of the Vision 100 Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act in Dec 2003. The NGATS vision calls for a major transformation of the nation s air transportation system that will enable growth to 3 times the traffic of the current system. The transformation will require an unprecedented level of safety-critical automation used in complex procedural operations based on 4-dimensional (4D) trajectories that enable dynamic reconfiguration of airspace scalable to geographic and temporal demand. The goal of our formal methods research is to provide verification methods that can be used to insure the safety of the NGATS system. Our work has focused on the safety assessment of concepts of operation and fundamental algorithms for conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) and self- spacing in the terminal area. Formal analysis of a concept of operations is a novel area of application of formal methods. Here one must establish that a system concept involving aircraft, pilots, and ground resources is safe. The formal analysis of algorithms is a more traditional endeavor. However, the formal analysis of ATM algorithms involves reasoning about the interaction of algorithmic logic and aircraft trajectories defined over an airspace. These trajectories are described using 2D and 3D vectors and are often constrained by trigonometric relations. Thus, in many cases it has been necessary to unload the full power of an advanced theorem prover. The verification challenge is to establish that the safety-critical algorithms produce valid solutions that are guaranteed to maintain separation under all possible scenarios. Current research has assumed perfect knowledge of the location of other aircraft in the vicinity so absolute guarantees are possible, but increasingly we are relaxing the assumptions to allow incomplete, inaccurate, and/or faulty information from communication sources.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

NASA NTRS2001

On the Formal Verification of Conflict Detection Algorithms

Safety assessment of new air traffic management systems is a main issue for civil aviation authorities. Standard techniques such as testing and simulation have serious limitations in new systems that are significantly more autonomous than the older ones. In this paper, we present an innovative approach, based on formal verification, for establishing the correctness of conflict detection systems. Fundamental to our approach is the concept of trajectory, which is a continuous path in the x-y plane constrained by physical laws and operational requirements. From the Model of trajectories, we extract, and formally prove, high level properties that can serve as a framework to analyze conflict scenarios. We use the Airborne Information for Lateral Spacing (AILS) alerting algorithm as a case study of our approach.

Munoz, Cesar↗

NASA NTRS2002

GTX Reference Vehicle Structural Verification Methods and Weight Summary

The design of a single-stage-to-orbit air breathing propulsion system requires the simultaneous development of a reference launch vehicle in order to achieve the optimal mission performance. Accordingly, for the GTX study a 300-lb payload reference vehicle was preliminarily sized to a gross liftoff weight (GLOW) of 238,000 lb. A finite element model of the integrated vehicle/propulsion system was subjected to the trajectory environment and subsequently optimized for structural efficiency. This study involved the development of aerodynamic loads mapped to finite element models of the integrated system in order to assess vehicle margins of safety. Commercially available analysis codes were used in the process along with some internally developed spreadsheets and FORTRAN codes specific to the GTX geometry for mapping of thermal and pressure loads. A mass fraction of 0.20 for the integrated system dry weight has been the driver for a vehicle design consisting of state-of-the-art composite materials in order to meet the rigid weight requirements. This paper summarizes the methodology used for preliminary analyses and presents the current status of the weight optimization for the structural components of the integrated system.

Hunter, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Land Use Planning

Computer technology, aerial photography and space imagery are being combined in a NASA community services program designed to help solve land use and natural resource planning problems. As urban areas grow, so grows the need for comprehensive, up-to-date information on which to base intelligent decisions regarding land use. State and local planners need information such as the nature of urban change, where the changes are occurring, how they affect public safety, transportation, the economy, tax assessment, sewer systems, water quality, flood hazard, noise impact and a great variety of other considerations. Most importantly they need continually updated maps. Preparing timely maps, gathering the essential data and maintaining it in orderly fashion are becoming matters of increasing difficulty. The NASA project, which has nationwide potential for improving efficiency in the planning process, is a pilot program focused on Tacoma, Washington and surrounding Pierce County. Its key element, developed by Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), is a computerized Land Use Management Information System (LUMIS).

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2010

NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

Ancel, Ersin↗

NASA NTRS2011

NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

Ancel, Ersin↗

NASA NTRS2002

GTX Reference Vehicle Structural Verification Methods and Weight Summary

The design of a single-stage-to-orbit air breathing propulsion system requires the simultaneous development of a reference launch vehicle in order to achieve the optimal mission performance. Accordingly, for the GTX study a 300-lb payload reference vehicle was preliminary sized to a gross liftoff weight (GLOW) of 238,000 lb. A finite element model of the integrated vehicle/propulsion system was subjected to the trajectory environment and subsequently optimized for structural efficiency. This study involved the development of aerodynamic loads mapped to finite element models of the integrated system in order to assess vehicle margins of safety. Commercially available analysis codes were used in the process along with some internally developed spread-sheets and FORTRAN codes specific to the GTX geometry for mapping of thermal and pressure loads. A mass fraction of 0.20 for the integrated system dry weight has been the driver for a vehicle design consisting of state-of-the-art composite materials in order to meet the rigid weight requirements. This paper summarizes the methodology used for preliminary analyses and presents the current status of the weight optimization for the structural components of the integrated system.

Hunter, J. E.↗