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At least 91 records · Page 5

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2024 Edition [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.7 million systems installed through year-end 2023, representing close to 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, roof-coverage ratios, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and customer segmentation -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive analysis and a multi-variate regression to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2023.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Quantum Monte Carlo Calculations of Chemical Binding and Reactions

The auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo method developed by the PIs has been shown to provide the most accurate description of strongly correlated electronic systems, from molecules to solids. Unlike other explicitly many‐body approaches, the quantum Monte Carlo method scales as a low order polynomial of systems size, similar to mean‐field methods such as density functional theory. However, the auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo algorithm is significantly more expensive than traditional density functional calculations. This creates a bottleneck for applications to extended systems, such as large molecules and solids. One principal objective of this proposal was to develop new auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo computational strategies to achieve improved scaling with system size, using downfolding and localization schemes, without sacrificing the predictive power of the calculations. A second goal is to extend the reach of auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo to calculate excited states. This final report summarizes what has been achieved during the course the project toward these goals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Predicting Adaptively Chosen Observables in Quantum Systems

Recent advances have demonstrated that 𝒪⁡(log 𝑀) measurements suffice to predict 𝑀 properties of arbitrarily large quantum many-body systems. However, these remarkable findings assume that the properties to be predicted are chosen independently of the data. This assumption can be violated in practice, where scientists adaptively select properties after looking at previous predictions. This work investigates the adaptive setting for three classes of observables: local, Pauli, and bounded-Frobenius-norm observables. We prove that Ω⁡(√𝑀) samples of an arbitrarily large unknown quantum state are necessary to predict expectation values of 𝑀 adaptively chosen local and Pauli observables, where the system size scales exponentially and polynomially in 𝑀, respectively. We also present computationally efficient algorithms that achieve this information-theoretic lower bound. In contrast, for bounded-Frobenius-norm observables, we devise an algorithm requiring only 𝒪⁡(log 𝑀) samples, independent of system size. These results highlight the potential pitfalls of adaptivity in analyzing data from quantum experiments and provide algorithmic tools to safeguard against erroneous predictions in quantum experiments.

Machine learning

Techno-economic assessment of residential PV system tariff policies in Jordan

This study assesses the economic and technical performance of four energy policy scenarios for Jordan's residential photovoltaic (PV) systems: net metering, net billing, zero-export with battery storage, and sell-all-buy-all. With the recent introduction of time-of-use (TOU) tariffs and policies addressing the “duck curve” effect, the research focuses on optimizing PV system sizing across different regulatory frameworks. A detailed techno-economic analysis evaluates these scenarios based on energy production, cost savings, payback periods, and energy self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that net metering and net billing offer the highest cost savings and the shortest payback periods (∼3 years). While the zero-export strategy with battery storage enhances energy self-sufficiency by up to 70%, it requires a higher upfront investment. The sell-all-buy-all scenario supports larger system sizes, achieving a low levelized cost of electricity (0.0696 USD/kWh) and a net present value of 619 USD. Additionally, the study identifies a critical feed-in tariff threshold of 0.055 USD/kWh, at which net billing becomes as financially attractive as net metering. Here, these insights offer valuable recommendations for policymakers to optimize net billing rates and TOU tariffs, promoting the expansion of Jordan's renewable energy sector.

Battery storage

Accuracy Guarantees and Quantum Advantage in Analog Open Quantum Simulation with and without Noise

Many-body open quantum systems, described by Lindbladian master equations, are a rich class of physical models that display complex equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium phenomena which remain to be understood. In this paper, we theoretically analyze noisy analog quantum simulation of geometrically local open quantum systems and provide evidence that this problem both is hard to simulate on classical computers and could be approximately solved on near-term quantum devices. First, given a noiseless quantum simulator, we show that the dynamics of local observables and the fixed-point expectation values of rapidly mixing local observables in geometrically local Lindbladians can be obtained to a precision of ϵ in time that is poly ( ϵ − 1 ) and uniform in system size. Furthermore, we establish that the quantum simulator would provide a superpolynomial advantage, in run-time scaling with respect to the target precision and either the evolution time (when simulating dynamics) or the Lindbladian’s decay rate (when simulating fixed points), over any classical algorithm for these problems, assuming BQP ≠ BPP . We then consider the presence of noise in the quantum simulator in the form of additional geometrically local Lindbladian terms. We show that the simulation tasks considered in this paper are stable to errors; i.e., they can be solved to a noise-limited, but system-size independent, precision. Finally, we establish that, assuming BQP ≠ BPP , there are stable geometrically local Lindbladian simulation problems such that, as the noise rate on the simulator is reduced, classical algorithms must take time superpolynomially longer in the inverse noise rate to attain the same precision as the analog quantum simulator. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Kashyap, Vikram (ORCID:0000000208195207)

Analyzing the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm: Ansätze, Symmetries, and Lie Algebras

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) has been proposed as a method to obtain approximate solutions for combinatorial optimization tasks. In this work, we study the underlying algebraic properties of three QAOA ansätze for the maximum-cut problem on connected graphs, while focusing on the generated Lie algebras as well as their invariant subspaces. Specifically, we analyze the standard QAOA ansatz as well as the orbit and multiangle ansätze. We are able to fully characterize the Lie algebras of the multiangle ansatz across arbitrary connected graphs, finding that they only fall into one of just six families. Aside from the cycle and path graphs, the Lie dimensions for every graph are exponentially large in the system size, meaning that multiangle ansätze are extremely prone to exhibiting barren plateaus. Then, a similar quasi-graph-independent Lie-algebraic characterization beyond the multiangle ansatz is impeded as the circuit exhibits additional “hidden” symmetries besides those naturally arising from a certain parity-superselection operator and all automorphisms of the considered graph. Disregarding the “hidden” symmetries, we can upper bound the dimensions of the orbit and the standard Lie algebras, and the dimensions of the associated invariant subspaces are determined via explicit character formulas. To finish, we conjecture that (for most graphs) the standard Lie algebras have only components that are either exponential or that grow, at most, polynomially with the system size. This would imply that the QAOA is either prone to barren plateaus or classically simulable. More generally, our work provides a symmetry framework and tools to analyze any desired variational quantum algorithm.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

Preliminary design activities for solar heating and cooling systems

Information on the development of solar heating and cooling systems is presented. The major emphasis is placed on program organization, system size definition, site identification, system approaches, heat pump and equipment design, collector procurement, and other preliminary design activities.

Source record

Experiences running NASTRAN on the Microvax 2 computer

The MicroVAX operates NASTRAN so well that the only detectable difference in its operation compared to an 11/780 VAX is in the execution time. On the modest installation described here, the engineer has all of the tools he needs to do an excellent job of analysis. System configuration decisions, system sizing, preparation of the system disk, definition of user quotas, installation, monitoring of system errors, and operation policies are discussed.

Butler, Thomas G.

A near-infrared imaging survey of interacting galaxies - The small angular-size Arp systems

Near-IR images of a large sample of interacting galaxies selected from the Atlas of Peculiar Galaxies by Arp (1966) have been obtained. Approximately 180 systems have been imaged in at least two, and usually three of the standard JHK bands. The survey and the observing and data reduction procedures, are described, and contour plots and aperture photometry are presented. Future papers will analyze the imaging data by groupings based on interaction type, stage, and progenitors. The goals of the analysis are to explore the relationships between galaxy interactions, activity, and morphology by studying the structure of the near-IR luminosity distribution, where extinction effects are much reduced relative to the optical and the major stellar mass component of galaxies dominates the observed light.

Bushouse, Howard A.

High-Efficiency Nested Hall Thrusters for Robotic Solar System Exploration

This work describes the scaling and design attributes of Nested Hall Thrusters (NHT) with extremely large operational envelopes, including a wide range of throttleability in power and specific impulse at high efficiency (>50%). NHTs have the potential to provide the game changing performance, powerprocessing capabilities, and cost effectiveness required to enable missions that cannot otherwise be accomplished. NHTs were first identified in the electric propulsion community as a path to 100- kW class thrusters for human missions. This study aimed to identify the performance capabilities NHTs can provide for NASA robotic and human missions, with an emphasis on 10-kW class thrusters well-suited for robotic exploration. A key outcome of this work has been the identification of NHTs as nearly constant-efficiency devices over large power throttling ratios, especially in direct-drive power systems. NHT systems sized for robotic solar system exploration are predicted to be capable of high-efficiency operation over nearly their entire power throttling range. A traditional Annular Hall Thruster (AHT) consists of a single annular discharge chamber where the propellant is ionized and accelerated. In an NHT, multiple annular channels are concentrically stacked. The channels can be operated in unison or individually depending on the available power or required performance. When throttling an AHT, performance must be sacrificed since a single channel cannot satisfy the diverse design attributes needed to maintain high thrust efficiency. NHTs can satisfy these requirements by varying which channels are operated and thereby offer significant benefits in terms of thruster performance, especially under deep power throttling conditions where the efficiency of an AHT suffers since a single channel can only operate efficiently (>50%) over a narrow power throttling ratio (3:1). Designs for 10-kW class NHTs were developed and compared with AHT systems. Power processing systems were considered using either traditional Power Processing Units (PPU) or Direct Drive Units (DDU). In a PPU-based system, power from the solar arrays is transformed from the low voltage of the arrays to the high voltage needed by the thruster. In a DDU-based system, power from the solar arrays is fed to the thruster without conversion. DDU-based systems are attractive for their simplicity since they eliminate the most complex and expensive part of the propulsion system. The results point to the strong potential of NHTs operating with either PPUs or DDUs to benefit robotic and human missions through their unprecedented power and specific impulse throttling capabilities. NHTs coupled to traditional PPUs are predicted to offer high-efficiency (>50%) power throttling ratios 320% greater than present capabilities, while NHTs with direct-drive power systems (DDU) could exceed existing capabilities by 340%. Because the NHT-DDU approach is implicitly low-cost, NHT-DDU technology has the potential to radically reduce the cost of SEP-enabled NASA missions while simultaneously enabling unprecedented performance capability.

Hofer, Richard R.

Photovoltaic and Cost Analysis for Winston-Salem, North Carolina

This study assesses the feasibility of solar installations at various sites in Winston-Salem, focusing on factors such as solar resource availability, electricity costs, and rooftop area for photovoltaic systems. The analysis begins by estimating daily energy requirements based on annual electricity use, followed by adjusting for seasonal and operational fluctuations. Using regional solar data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), we calculate average peak sun hours to determine effective system sizing. A parametric approach using the System Advisor Model (SAM) refines this sizing process, incorporating a safety margin of 1.2 to address demand peaks. Each PV system is designed to fit available rooftop space, and a coverage threshold of 70% is identified as optimal for maximizing cost savings and sustainability. This threshold allows installations to meet substantial energy demands, supporting energy resilience and enhancing economic returns.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Propulsion Investigation for Zero and Near-Zero Emissions Aircraft

As world emissions are further scrutinized to identify areas for improvement, aviation s contribution to the problem can no longer be ignored. Previous studies for zero or near-zero emissions aircraft suggest aircraft and propulsion system sizes that would perform propulsion system and subsystems layout and propellant tankage analyses to verify the weight-scaling relationships. These efforts could be used to identify and guide subsequent work on systems and subsystems to achieve viable aircraft system emissions goals. Previous work quickly focused these efforts on propulsion systems for 70- and 100-passenger aircraft. Propulsion systems modeled included hydrogen-fueled gas turbines and fuel cells; some preliminary estimates combined these two systems. Hydrogen gas-turbine engines, with advanced combustor technology, could realize significant reductions in nitrogen emissions. Hydrogen fuel cell propulsion systems were further laid out, and more detailed analysis identified systems needed and weight goals for a viable overall system weight. Results show significant, necessary reductions in overall weight, predominantly on the fuel cell stack, and power management and distribution subsystems to achieve reasonable overall aircraft sizes and weights. Preliminary conceptual analyses for a combination of gas-turbine and fuel cell systems were also performed, and further studies were recommended. Using gas-turbine engines combined with fuel cell systems can reduce the fuel cell propulsion system weight, but at higher fuel usage than using the fuel cell only.

Snyder, Christopher A.

Small-RPS Enabled Mars Rover Concept

Both the MER and the Mars Pathfinder rovers operated on Mars in an energy-limited mode, since the solar panels generated power during daylight hours only. At other times the rovers relied on power stored in batteries. In comparison, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) offer a power-enabled paradigm, where power can be generated for long mission durations (measured in years), independently from the Sun, and on a continuous basis. A study was performed at PL to assess the feasibility of a small-RPS enabled MER-class rover concept and any associated advantages of its mission on Mars. The rover concept relied on design heritage from MER with two significant changes. First, the solar panels were replaced with two single GPHS module based small-RPSs. Second, the Mossbauer spectroscope was substituted with a laser Raman spectroscope, in order to move towards MEPAG defined astrobiology driven science goals. The highest power requirements were contributed to mobility and telecommunication type operating modes, hence influencing power system sizing. The resulting hybrid power system included two small-RPSs and two batteries. Each small-RPS was assumed to generate 50We of power or 62OWh/sol of energy (BOL), comparable to that of MER. The two 8Ah batteries were considered available during peak power usage. Mission architecture, power trades, science instruments, data, communication, thermal and radiation environments, mobility, mass issues were also addressed. The study demonstrated that a new set of RPS-enabled rover missions could be envisioned for Mars exploration within the next decade, targeting astrobiology oriented science objectives, while powered by 2 to 4 GPHS modules.

Mars exploration

Decarbonizing Building Thermal Systems: A How-to Guide for Heat Pump Systems and Beyond

Buildings account for a substantial portion of carbon emissions, primarily due to the widespread use of fossil fuels in heating systems. Decarbonization of heating is essential to meet climate targets and reduce the environmental impact of buildings. Heat pumps are capable of leveraging renewable energy sources and can provide heating and cooling in an energy-efficient manner. By leveraging heat pump technology, buildings can significantly reduce their carbon footprint, minimize energy consumption, and decrease their reliance on fossil fuels. The design and construction community plays a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to heat pump systems for heating and cooling. However, this transition requires specialized knowledge and expertise. This resource was developed for architects, engineers, and contractors in response to an industry need for a comprehensive technical resource that guides them through the intricacies of heat pump system design, installation, and maintenance. This resource provides detailed information on system sizing, selection of appropriate heat systems, heat sources, and integration with existing building systems. Moreover, it emphasizes best practices for ensuring operational efficiency, system longevity, and reliability. The development of this recourse was a collaborative effort between NREL/DOE Better Buildings Design and Construction Allies and ASHRAE Task Force for Building Decarbonization. This resource is composed of two complimentary portions that will be completed and released on separate time frames. The first portion will be completed and released in 2023, while the second portion will be released in 2024.

building thermal systems

Regression Verification Using Impact Summaries

Regression verification techniques are used to prove equivalence of syntactically similar programs. Checking equivalence of large programs, however, can be computationally expensive. Existing regression verification techniques rely on abstraction and decomposition techniques to reduce the computational effort of checking equivalence of the entire program. These techniques are sound but not complete. In this work, we propose a novel approach to improve scalability of regression verification by classifying the program behaviors generated during symbolic execution as either impacted or unimpacted. Our technique uses a combination of static analysis and symbolic execution to generate summaries of impacted program behaviors. The impact summaries are then checked for equivalence using an o-the-shelf decision procedure. We prove that our approach is both sound and complete for sequential programs, with respect to the depth bound of symbolic execution. Our evaluation on a set of sequential C artifacts shows that reducing the size of the summaries can help reduce the cost of software equivalence checking. Various reduction, abstraction, and compositional techniques have been developed to help scale software verification techniques to industrial-sized systems. Although such techniques have greatly increased the size and complexity of systems that can be checked, analysis of large software systems remains costly. Regression analysis techniques, e.g., regression testing [16], regression model checking [22], and regression verification [19], restrict the scope of the analysis by leveraging the differences between program versions. These techniques are based on the idea that if code is checked early in development, then subsequent versions can be checked against a prior (checked) version, leveraging the results of the previous analysis to reduce analysis cost of the current version. Regression verification addresses the problem of proving equivalence of closely related program versions [19]. These techniques compare two programs with a large degree of syntactic similarity to prove that portions of one program version are equivalent to the other. Regression verification can be used for guaranteeing backward compatibility, and for showing behavioral equivalence in programs with syntactic differences, e.g., when a program is refactored to improve its performance, maintainability, or readability. Existing regression verification techniques leverage similarities between program versions by using abstraction and decomposition techniques to improve scalability of the analysis [10, 12, 19]. The abstractions and decomposition in the these techniques, e.g., summaries of unchanged code [12] or semantically equivalent methods [19], compute an over-approximation of the program behaviors. The equivalence checking results of these techniques are sound but not complete-they may characterize programs as not functionally equivalent when, in fact, they are equivalent. In this work we describe a novel approach that leverages the impact of the differences between two programs for scaling regression verification. We partition program behaviors of each version into (a) behaviors impacted by the changes and (b) behaviors not impacted (unimpacted) by the changes. Only the impacted program behaviors are used during equivalence checking. We then prove that checking equivalence of the impacted program behaviors is equivalent to checking equivalence of all program behaviors for a given depth bound. In this work we use symbolic execution to generate the program behaviors and leverage control- and data-dependence information to facilitate the partitioning of program behaviors. The impacted program behaviors are termed as impact summaries. The dependence analyses that facilitate the generation of the impact summaries, we believe, could be used in conjunction with other abstraction and decomposition based approaches, [10, 12], as a complementary reduction technique. An evaluation of our regression verification technique shows that our approach is capable of leveraging similarities between program versions to reduce the size of the queries and the time required to check for logical equivalence. The main contributions of this work are: - A regression verification technique to generate impact summaries that can be checked for functional equivalence using an off-the-shelf decision procedure. - A proof that our approach is sound and complete with respect to the depth bound of symbolic execution. - An implementation of our technique using the LLVMcompiler infrastructure, the klee Symbolic Virtual Machine [4], and a variety of Satisfiability Modulo Theory (SMT) solvers, e.g., STP [7] and Z3 [6]. - An empirical evaluation on a set of C artifacts which shows that the use of impact summaries can reduce the cost of regression verification.

Backes, John