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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Storage in Long-Term System Models: A Review of Considerations, Best Practices, and Research Needs

Technological change and policy support have heightened expectations for the role of energy storage in power systems, creating a need to enhance representations of energy storage in long-term models to inform decision-making. Energy storage technologies have complex and diverse cost, value, and performance characteristics that make them challenging to model, but there is limited guidance about best practices and research gaps for energy storage analysis. This paper reviews the literature and draws upon our collective experience to provide recommendations to analysts on approaches for representing energy storage in long-term electric sector models, navigating tradeoffs in model development, and identifying research gaps for existing tools and data. The review focuses on national-scale models with technological, temporal, and regional detail given their prevalence in planning and policy, though many insights are transferable to other modeling contexts. It also offers guidance to consumers of model outputs on proper use and interpretation based on model strengths and limitations. In particular, this review demonstrates the importance of capturing how the values of energy storage and other resources change as the system composition changes (e.g. with different levels of storage, renewables deployment, and emissions outcomes). These considerations require model detail like high spatiotemporal resolutions and endogenous investments that global integrated assessment models and price-taker frameworks do not typically resolve. Research gaps include linking tools of different resolutions, developing reduced-form representations of value streams, incorporating hybrid energy storage and renewable systems, and representing longer-duration energy storage technologies.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Confirmation of the PPLB Derivative Discontinuity: Exact Chemical Potential at Finite Temperatures of a Model System

The landmark 1982 paper of Perdew, Parr, Levy, and Balduz (often called PPLB) laid the foundation for our modern understanding of the role of the derivative discontinuity in density functional theory, which drives much development to account for its effects. A simple model for the chemical potential at vanishing temperature played a crucial role in their argument. We investigate the validity of this model in the simplest non-trivial system to which it can be applied and which can be easily solved exactly, the Hubbard dimer. We find exact agreement in the crucial zero-temperature limit, and show the model remains accurate for a significant range of temperatures. We identify how this range depends on the strength of correlations. We extend the model to approximate free energies accounting for the derivative discontinuity, a feature missing in standard semilocal approximations. Here, we provide a correction to this approximation to yield even more accurate free energies. We discuss the relevance of these results for warm dense matter.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

A box model for representing estuarine physical processes in Earth system models

Appropriately treating riverine freshwater discharge into the oceans in Earth system models is a challenging problem. Commonly, the river runoff is discharged into the ocean models with zero salinity and arbitrarily distributed either horizontally or vertically over several grid cells. Those approaches entirely neglect estuarine physical processes that modify river inputs before they reach the open ocean. Here in order to realistically represent riverine freshwater inputs in Earth system models, a physically based Estuary Box Model (EBM) is developed to parameterize the mixing processes in estuaries. The EBM represents the estuary exchange circulation with a two-layer box structure. It takes as input the river volume flux from the land surface model and the subsurface salinity at the estuary mouth from the ocean model. It delivers the estuarine outflow salinity and net volume flux into and out of the estuary to the ocean model. An offline test of the EBM forced with observed conditions for the Columbia River system shows good agreement with observations of outflow salinity and high-resolution simulations of the exchange flow volume flux. To illustrate the practicality of use of the EBM in an Earth system model, the EBM is implemented for all coastal grid cells with river runoff in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Compared to the standard version of CESM, which treats runoff as an augmentation to precipitation, the EBM increases sea surface salinity and reduces stratification near river mouths. The EBM also leads to significant regional and remote changes in CESM ocean surface salinities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Physics-Dynamics Coupling in Weather, Climate, and Earth System Models: Challenges and Recent Progress

Geophysical models of the atmosphere and ocean invariably involve parameterizations. These represent two distinct areas: a) Subgrid processes which the model cannot (yet) resolve, due to its discrete resolution, and b) sources in the equation, due to radiation for example. Hence coupling between these physics parameterizations and the resolved fluid dynamics and also between the dynamics of the different fluids in the system (air and water) is necessary. This coupling is an important aspect of geophysical models. However, often model development is strictly segregated into either physics or dynamics. Hence, this area has many more unanswered questions than in-depth understanding. Furthermore, recent developments in the design of dynamical cores (significant increase of resolution, move to non-hydrostatic equation sets etc), extended process physics (prognostic micro physics, 3D turbulence, non-vertical radiation etc) and predicted future changes of the computational infrastructure (Exascale with its need for task parallelism, data locality and asynchronous time stepping for example) is adding even more complexity and new questions.

Gross, Markus↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Carbon Cycling in CMIP Earth System Models With the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) Software System

Abstract The International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) software package is a new community resource that we use here to evaluate surface and upper ocean biogeochemical variables and integrated anthropogenic carbon uptake from earth system models (ESMs) contributing to the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). IOMB generates graphics and tables for systematically comparing model predictions against multiple datasets. Our analysis reveals some improvement in the multi‐model mean from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for most of the variables we examined. Compared to data‐constrained estimates of ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake for the 1994–2007 period, negative biases exist for many models between 30 and 50°S. Global model estimates of anthropogenic carbon uptake for the same period do not change significantly from CMIP5 to CMIP6, with the combined ensemble mean estimate of 27.8 ± 0.5 Pg C lower than a data‐constrained estimate of 33.0 ± 4.0 Pg C. At the same time, the change in the natural carbon inventory from CMIP is estimated to be a source of 0.7 ± 0.3 Pg C, which is considerably smaller in magnitude than a data‐constrained estimate of 5.0 ± 3.0 Pg C. With chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) predictions available for several models, we demonstrate that negative anthropogenic dissolved inorganic carbon biases coincide with negative biases in CFC concentration, highlighting the importance of weak exchange between the surface and interior ocean in regulating rates of anthropogenic carbon uptake. To examine the robustness of this attribution across the CMIP models, we calculate the global vertical temperature gradient between 200 and 1,000 m as a metric for global stratification and exchange between the surface and deeper waters. We find a linear relationship between the bias of the vertical temperature gradients and the bias in global anthropogenic carbon uptake, consistent with the hypothesis that model biases in anthropogenic carbon uptake are related to biases in surface‐to‐interior exchange by physical processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble Spread Behavior in Coupled Climate Models: Insights From the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 Large Ensemble

AbstractAssessing uncertainty in future climate projections requires understanding both internal climate variability and external forcing. For this reason, single‐model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs) run with Earth System Models (ESMs) have recently become popular. Here we present a new 20‐member SMILE with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1‐LE), which uses a “macro” initialization strategy choosing coupled atmosphere/ocean states based on inter‐basin contrasts in ocean heat content (OHC). The E3SMv1‐LE simulates tropical climate variability well, albeit with a muted warming trend over the twentieth century due to overly strong aerosol forcing. The E3SMv1‐LE's initial climate spread is comparable to other (larger) SMILEs, suggesting that maximizing inter‐basin ocean heat contrasts may be an efficient method of generating ensemble spread. We also compare different ensemble spread across multiple SMILEs, using surface air temperature and OHC. The Community Earth system Model version 1, the only ensemble which utilizes a “micro” initialization approach perturbing only atmospheric initial conditions, yields lower spread in the first ∼30 years. The E3SMv1‐LE exhibits a relatively large spread, with some evidence for anthropogenic forcing influencing spread in the late twentieth century. However, systematic effects of differing “macro” initialization strategies are difficult to detect, possibly resulting from differing model physics or responses to external forcing. Notably, the method of standardizing results affects ensemble spread: control simulations for most models have either large background trends or multi‐centennial variability in OHC. This spurious disequlibrium behavior is a substantial roadblock to understanding both internal climate variability and its response to forcing.

Stevenson, Samantha↗
DOE OSTI2015

Integrating the PNNL SOFC Multi-Physics Model into the NETL Aspen System Model as a Reduced Order Model

Conference presentation from the 16th Annual SOFC Workshop that highlights the integration and validation of the PNNL SOFC model into NETL SOFC system models. The integration strengthens NETL's analyses by incorporating state-of-the-art industry performance data that can be used to inform real and achievable future targets for the cost and performance of SOFC technology.

Hackett, Gregory↗
DOE OSTI2020

An improved mechanistic model for ammonia volatilization in Earth system models: Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen version 2 (FANv2)

Abstract. Volatilization of ammonia (NH 3 ) from fertilizers and livestock wastes forms a significant pathway of nitrogen losses in agricultural ecosystems and constitutes the largest source of atmospheric emissions of NH 3 . This paper describes a major update to the process model FAN (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen), which evaluates NH 3 emissions interactively within an Earth system model; in this work, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used. The updated version (FANv2) includes a more detailed treatment of both physical and agricultural processes, which allows the model to differentiate between the volatilization losses from animal housings, manure storage, grazed pastures, and the application of manure and different types of mineral fertilizers. The modeled ammonia emissions are first evaluated at a local scale against experimental data for various types of fertilizers and manure, and they are subsequently run globally to evaluate NH3 emissions for 2010–2015 based on gridded datasets of fertilizer use and livestock populations. Comparison of regional emissions shows that FANv2 agrees with previous inventories for North America and Europe and is within the range of previous inventories for China. However, due to higher NH 3 emissions in Africa, India, and Latin America, the global emissions simulated by FANv2 (48 Tg N) are 30 %–40 % higher than in the existing inventories.

Vira, Julius↗
DOE OSTI2021

Jaynesian Analysis of Environmental Chemistry: Systems Model Component Integration via the Arctic Aquatic Carbon Cycle

Focal Areas: All three are touched upon from the OBER call. We will consider formal logical inference and entropic information analysis for sparse but intensive chemical measurements, as optimal drivers for managing process complexity. As a centerpiece for the discussion we take soil-to-sea organic structural evolution within the Arctic hydro-geochemosphere, assessing detrital negentropy then algorithmic greed to generate ranked, reduced mechanisms for system integration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using neural network ensembles to separate ocean biogeochemical and physical drivers of phytoplankton biogeography in Earth system models

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are useful tools for predicting and understanding past and future aspects of the climate system. However, the biological and physical parameters used in ESMs can have wide variations in their estimates. Even small changes in these parameters can yield unexpected results without a clear explanation of how a particular outcome was reached. The standard method for estimating ESM sensitivity is to compare spatiotemporal distributions of variables from different runs of a single ESM. However, a potential pitfall of this method is that ESM output could match observational patterns because of compensating errors. For example, if a model predicts overly weak upwelling and low nutrient concentrations, it might compensate for this by allowing phytoplankton to have a high sensitivity to nutrients. Recently, we demonstrated that neural network ensembles (NNEs) are capable of extracting relationships between predictor and target variables within ocean biogeochemical models. Being able to view the relationships between variables, along with spatiotemporal distributions, allows for a more mechanistically based examination of ESM outputs. Here, we investigated whether we could apply NNEs to help us determine why different ESMs produce different spatiotemporal distributions of phytoplankton biomass. We tested this using three cases. The first and second case used different runs of the same ESM, except that the physical circulations differed between them in the first case, while the biological equations differed between them in the second. Our results indicated that the NNEs were capable of extracting the relationships between variables for different runs of a single ESM, allowing us to distinguish between differences due to changes in circulation (which do not change relationships) from changes in biogeochemical formulation (which do change relationships). In the third case, we applied NNEs to two different ESMs. The results of the third case highlighted the capability of NNEs to contrast the apparent relationships of different ESMs and some of the challenges it presents. Although applied specifically to the ocean components of an ESM, our study demonstrates that Earth system modelers can use NNEs to separate the contributions of different components of ESMs. Specifically, this allows modelers to compare the apparent relationships across different ESMs and observational datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Stirling System Modeling for Space Nuclear Power Systems

A dynamic model of a high-power Stirling convertor has been developed for space nuclear power systems modeling. The model is based on the Component Test Power Convertor (CTPC), a 12.5-kWe free-piston Stirling convertor. The model includes the fluid heat source, the Stirling convertor, output power and heat rejection. The Stirling convertor model includes the Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, mechanical mass-spring damper systems, and the linear alternator. The model was validated against test data. Both nonlinear and linear versions of the model were developed. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models; one model of the Stirling cycle and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. Future possible uses of the Stirling system dynamic model are discussed. A pair of commercially available 1-kWe Stirling convertors is being purchased by NASA Glenn Research Center. The specifications of those convertors may eventually be incorporated into the dynamic model and analysis compared to the convertor test data. Subsequent potential testing could include integrating the convertors into a pumped liquid metal hot-end interface. This test would provide more data for comparison to the dynamic model analysis.

Lewandowski, Edward J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Stirling System Modeling for Space Nuclear Power Systems

A dynamic model of a high-power Stirling convertor has been developed for space nuclear power systems modeling. The model is based on the Component Test Power Convertor (CTPC), a 12.5-kWe free-piston Stirling convertor. The model includes the fluid heat source, the Stirling convertor, output power, and heat rejection. The Stirling convertor model includes the Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, mechanical mass-spring damper systems, and the linear alternator. The model was validated against test data. Both nonlinear and linear versions of the model were developed. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models; one model of the Stirling cycle and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. Future possible uses of the Stirling system dynamic model are discussed. A pair of commercially available 1-kWe Stirling convertors is being purchased by NASA Glenn Research Center. The specifications of those convertors may eventually be incorporated into the dynamic model and analysis compared to the convertor test data. Subsequent potential testing could include integrating the convertors into a pumped liquid metal hot-end interface. This test would provide more data for comparison to the dynamic model analysis.

Lewandowski, Edward J.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of Simulated Marine Aerosol Production Using the WaveWatchIII Prognostic Wave Model Coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model within the Community Earth System Model

Primary marine aerosol (PMA) is emitted into the atmosphere via breaking wind waves on the ocean surface. Most parameterizations of PMA emissions use 10-meter wind speed as a proxy for wave action. This investigation coupled the 3 rd generation prognostic WAVEWATCH-III wind-wave model within a coupled Earth system model (ESM) to drive PMA production using wave energy dissipation rate – analogous to whitecapping – in place of 10-meter wind speed. The wind speed parameterization did not capture basin-scale variability in relations between wind and wave fields. Overall, the wave parameterization did not improve comparison between simulated versus measured AOD or Na + , thus highlighting large remaining uncertainties in model physics. Results confirm the efficacy of prognostic wind-wave models for air-sea exchange studies coupled with laboratory- and field-based characterizations of the primary physical drivers of PMA production. No discernible correlations were evident between simulated PMA fields and observed chlorophyll or sea surface temperature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Carbon isotopes in the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

Carbon isotopes in the ocean are frequently used as paleoclimate proxies and as present-day geochemical ocean tracers. In order to allow a more direct comparison of climate model results with this large and currently underutilized data set, we added a carbon isotope module to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), containing the cycling of the stable isotope 13 C and the radioactive isotope 14 C. We implemented the 14 C tracer in two ways: in the "abiotic" case, the 14 C tracer is only subject to air–sea gas exchange, physical transport, and radioactive decay, while in the "biotic" version, the 14 C additionally follows the 13 C tracer through all biogeochemical and ecological processes. Thus, the abiotic 14 C tracer can be run without the ecosystem module, requiring significantly fewer computational resources. The carbon isotope module calculates the carbon isotopic fractionation during gas exchange, photosynthesis, and calcium carbonate formation, while any subsequent biological process such as remineralization as well as any external inputs are assumed to occur without fractionation. Given the uncertainty associated with the biological fractionation during photosynthesis, we implemented and tested three parameterizations of different complexity. Compared to present-day observations, the model is able to simulate the oceanic 14 C bomb uptake and the 13 C Suess effect reasonably well compared to observations and other model studies. Lastly, at the same time, the carbon isotopes reveal biases in the physical model, for example, too sluggish ventilation of the deep Pacific Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building Initial Dynamic System Models for Digital Twins of the Cryogenic Moderator System at the ORNL Spallation Neutron Source

This work describes the initial development of dynamic system models of the cryogenic moderator system (CMS) of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at ORNL as a part of the ORNL LDRD funded project Building TRANSFORM to Accelerate Digital Twin Applications for Nuclear Systems, LOIS 10563. The goal of the work is to start the dynamic system modeling effort with the end goal of using them for real-time applications as digital twins. The CMS is a cryogenic liquid hydrogen flow loop that provides moderation of the neutrons that are generated by the SNS. For optimal neutron production, the CMS needs to maintain a steady and controlled density of cryogenic hydrogen in the moderator section thus requiring precise temperature and pressure control. Due to the varied time scales and system characteristics, control of the system is complex, and diagnostics are also difficult. Difficulty in accessing the flow loop during operations, limited instrumentation and unknown design details of the equipment combine to make the case for having sophisticated digital twin models of the system. Operationally the CMS also provides a strong use case for digital twins due to the constant need of optimization and for troubleshooting/diagnostics. The large amount of data collected which are freely available for using in building the model and verifying and validating the model also makes it a great candidate for a proof-of-concept for digital twins. The project extends ORNL's capacity of development and implementation of the open-source dynamic system modeling tool TRANSFORM for engineering design and digital twin/real-time applications. Specific system configuration data for the CMS have been gathered and an initial dynamic model was created in the TRANSFORM library using Dymola as the solution platform. Models of increasing complexity are created to demonstrate the need for a multi-layered approach in digital twin modeling depending on the scale and phenomena being focused on. The dynamic modeling is shown to bring the dynamic operational aspects to the design process for systems as well as serve as a digital twin to the hardware and allow for models to be tuned and compared against real time operational data. These aims should help to push forward strategic goals of application of digital twins and increase the impact of ORNL systems modeling capabilities with TRANSFORM/Modelica for various advanced energy systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

More Realistic Intermediate Depth Dry Firn Densification in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

Abstract Earth system models account for seasonal snow cover, but many do not accommodate the deeper snowpack on ice sheets (aka firn) that slowly transforms to ice under accumulating snowfall. To accommodate and resolve firn depths of up to 60 m in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model's land surface model (ELM), we add 11 layers to its snowpack and evaluate three dry snow compaction equations in multi‐century simulations. After comparing results from ELM simulations (forced with atmospheric reanalysis) with empirical data, we find that implementing into ELM a two‐stage firn densification model produces more accurate dry firn densities at intermediate depths of 20–60 m. Compared to modeling firn using the equations in the (12 layer) Community Land Model (version 5), switching to the two‐stage firn densification model (with 16 layers) significantly decreases root‐mean‐square errors in upper 60 m dry firn densities by an average of 41 kg m −3 (31%). Simulations with three different firn density parameterizations show that the two‐stage firn densification model should be used for applications that prioritize accurate upper 60 m firn air content (FAC) in regions where the mean annual surface temperature is greater than roughly −31°C. Because snow metamorphism, firn density, and FAC are major components in modeling ice sheet surface albedo, melt water retention, and climatic mass balance, these developments advance broader efforts to simulate the response of land ice to atmospheric forcing in Earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

IGMS: An Integrated ISO-to-Appliance Scale Grid Modeling System

This paper describes the Integrated Grid Modeling System (IGMS), a novel electric power system modeling platform for integrated transmission-distribution analysis that co-simulates off-the-shelf tools on high performance computing (HPC) platforms to offer unprecedented resolution from ISO markets down to appliances and other end uses. Specifically, the system simultaneously models hundreds or thousands of distribution systems in co-simulation with detailed Independent System Operator (ISO) markets and AGC-level reserve deployment. IGMS uses a new MPI-based hierarchical co-simulation framework to connect existing sub-domain models. Our initial efforts integrate opensource tools for wholesale markets (FESTIV), bulk AC power flow (MATPOWER), and full-featured distribution systems including physics-based end-use and distributed generation models (many instances of GridLAB-D[TM]). The modular IGMS framework enables tool substitution and additions for multi-domain analyses. This paper describes the IGMS tool, characterizes its performance, and demonstrates the impacts of the coupled simulations for analyzing high-penetration solar PV and price responsive load scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗