Results for “TCs” — Page 5

NASA NTRS2016

An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO

An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation. Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño-namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño-and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Niño events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño.

climate models↗

NASA NTRS2021

GOES-16 Observations of Rapidly-Intensifying Tropical Cyclones: Hurricanes Harvey (2017), Maria (2017), And Michael (2018)

This study utilizes brightness temperatures (Tb’s) observed by the infrared longwave window band (Ch 14; 11.2 m) from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) to examine the structure of Hurricanes Harvey, Maria, and Michael throughout their lifetimes. During the times leading up to their rapid intensifications (RI), two-dimensional inner-core structures are examined to analyze the strength and location of the developing convection. Moderate vertical wind shear in the environments of Harvey and Michael induced a pronounced convective asymmetry prior to RI, followed by a rapid axisymmetrization that occurred essentially in conjunction with RI. The evolutions of the tropical cyclones’ (TCs’) coldest Tb’s indicate that the inner-core convective activity began to increase in the 12 h prior to RI onset, primarily in 2–4-h substantial “bursts”, while substantial convection dominated essentially the entirety of the region within 100 km of the surface center within 12 h of the onset of intensification. Azimuthally averaged Tb evolutions illustrate the development of each TCs’ eye and eyewall, the variability of the radial extent of the central dense overcast associated with the diurnal cycle, as well as details of the evolving convective structures throughout intensification. Hövmoller diagrams of data at constant radii reveal areas of cold Tb’s propagating around the TCs on timescales of 2–3-h. The examination of these features in a deep-layer shear-relative sense reveals that they initiate primarily downshear of the TCs’ surface centers. As RI is reached, these areas of convection are able to propagate into the upshear quadrants, which helps facilitate the onset of more substantial intensification.

Hurricanes↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermal Control System Architecture and Technology Challenges for a Lunar Surface Habitat

NASA’s current plans for exploration of the Lunar South Pole region include a Surface Habitat (SH) to provide up to 60-day habitability for a crew of four. The SH concept is comprised of several elements including an inflatable volume for the habitable space and a metallic airlock for access to a pressurized rover and other surface assets. A conceptual architecture for the SH Thermal Control System (TCS) is presented. A TCS dual loop design is utilized with a water/propylene glycol mix for the internal crew spaces and an external loop with low temperature coolant. The internal loop is partitioned into low and moderate temperature service with a sublimator available for operational scenarios prior to thermal radiator deployment (or redeployment). Waste heat is rejected through thermal radiators contained in the external loop. Optimization of the thermal radiator geometry/orientation as well as the TCS internal/external loop architecture is accomplished via analytical models of the system. Low mass, dust tolerant, deployable/retractable thermal radiators (in partial gravity) and thermal control surfaces, along with accommodating infrequent eclipse periods lasting up to 100 hours, present the major technology challenges. Mitigation strategies to reduce the energy needed to maintain the SH and associated systems above survival temperature limits during the eclipse period are considered in the paper. Options include retractable radiators, re-generable heat exchangers, temperature excursions, thermal energy storage and optimized inflatable optical properties. TCS sensitivity to potential SH Electrical Power System (EPS) growth is also a consideration for both operational and dormant mission phases.

Thermal Control System↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermal Control System Architecture and Technology Challenges for a Lunar Surface Habitat

NASA’s current plans for exploration of the Lunar South Pole region include a Surface Habitat (SH) to provide up to 60-day habitability for a crew of four. The SH concept is comprised of several elements including an inflatable volume for the habitable space and a metallic airlock for access to a pressurized rover and other surface assets. A conceptual architecture for the SH Thermal Control System (TCS) is presented. A TCS dual loop design is utilized with a water/propylene glycol mix for the internal crew spaces and an external loop with low temperature coolant. The internal loop is partitioned into low and moderate temperature service with a sublimator available for operational scenarios prior to thermal radiator deployment (or redeployment). Waste heat is rejected through thermal radiators contained in the external loop. Optimization of the thermal radiator geometry/orientation as well as the TCS internal/external loop architecture is accomplished via analytical models of the system. Low mass, dust tolerant, deployable/retractable thermal radiators (in partial gravity) and thermal control surfaces, along with accommodating infrequent eclipse periods lasting up to 100 hours, present the major technology challenges. Mitigation strategies to reduce the energy needed to maintain the SH and associated systems above survival temperature limits during the eclipse period are considered in the paper. Options include retractable radiators, re-generable heat exchangers, temperature excursions, thermal energy storage and optimized inflatable optical properties. TCS sensitivity to potential SH Electrical Power System (EPS) growth is also a consideration for both operational and dormant mission phases.

Thermal Control System↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the LOFTID Flight Thermocouple Measurements

The Flexible Thermal Protection System (FTPS) on NASA’s Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) vehicle was instrumented with thermocouples (TC) to measure the in-depth thermal response during entry into Earth’s atmosphere. Accurate flight temperature measurements are critical for verifying vehicle performance during the flight test and reducing uncertainties in the thermal models. The deployable nature of inflatable decelerator technology presents challenges, namely the TCs need to be compactable, cannot damage the FTPS nor the inflatable structure, and need to be able to withstand high temperatures and large thermal gradients over significant running lengths. As previously reported, an extensive ground-test campaign was conducted prior to flight to inform the selection of the LOFTID FTPS TCs which minimized all known potential error sources. Overall, the resulting flight FTPS TC measurements were exceptionally clean throughout the atmospheric entry heat pulse. However, a few of the FTPS TCs still exhibited electrical shorting or other anomalous behavior. This paper presents the flight measurements made by the LOFTID FTPS TCs, identifies anomalous behavior, and discusses potential explanations for the causes of the anomalous behavior. Lastly, recommendations to further mitigate TC measurement error on future Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) missions are provided.

Ruth A Miller↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LOFTID Surface Heating Reconstruction

On November 10, 2022, the Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) reentry vehicle launched to low-Earth orbit aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket out of Vandenberg Air Force Base. The aeroshell, the largest Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) ever flown, was inflated to its full 6-meter diameter before successful re-entry into the atmosphere. The aeroshell was heavily instrumented in order to understand its behavior during entry. There were 82 thermocouples (TCs) distributed across the aeroshell, with 22 integrated into the flexible thermal protection system (FTPS) on the rigid nose, 36 in the FTPS on the deployable structure, and 24 on the inflatable structure. TCs were placed at different depths throughout the FTPS. Those nearest to the surface were located just beneath the two SiC outer fabric layers. The near-surface TCs on the rigid nose were Type R with flame spray alumina insulation, while those on the flank were Type N with mica/ceramic insulation. Additionally, a radiometer was placed at the center of the nose surrounded by four total heat flux gauges in a cruciform configuration at a radius of 0.41 m. The nose instrumentation is shown in Fig. 1 and a cross-section of the aeroshell with all TC locations is shown in Fig. 2. The objective of this work was to use the temperatures measured by the TCs during flight to estimate the surface heat rate across the aeroshell throughout the period of re-entry by inverse analysis methodology. The results were used to evaluate the fidelity of measurements from the total heat flux gauges on the nose, determine the surface heat flux at aeroshell locations where gauges were not present, and compare to pre-flight CFD-based heating predictions. Inversely estimated surface heat flux continues to be used to correlate FTPS thermal models to reconstruct in-flight thermal response.

H S Alpert↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LOFTID Surface Heating Reconstruction

On November 10, 2022, the Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) reentry vehicle launched to low-Earth orbit aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket out of Vandenberg Air Force Base. The aeroshell, the largest Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) ever flown, was inflated to its full 6-meter diameter before successful re-entry into the atmosphere. The aeroshell was heavily instrumented in order to understand its behavior during entry. There were 82 thermocouples (TCs) distributed across the aeroshell, with 22 integrated into the flexible thermal protection system (FTPS) on the rigid nose, 36 in the FTPS on the deployable structure, and 24 on the inflatable structure. TCs were placed at different depths throughout the FTPS. Those nearest to the surface were located just beneath the two SiC outer fabric layers. The near-surface TCs on the rigid nose were Type R with flame spray alumina insulation, while those on the flank were Type N with mica/ceramic insulation. Additionally, a radiometer was placed at the center of the nose surrounded by four total heat flux gauges in a cruciform configuration at a radius of 0.41 m. The nose instrumentation is shown in Fig. 1 and a cross-section of the aeroshell with all TC locations is shown in Fig. 2. The objective of this work was to use the temperatures measured by the TCs during flight to estimate the surface heat rate across the aeroshell throughout the period of re-entry by inverse analysis methodology. The results were used to evaluate the fidelity of measurements from the total heat flux gauges on the nose, determine the surface heat flux at aeroshell locations where gauges were not present, and compare to pre-flight CFD-based heating predictions. Inversely estimated surface heat flux continues to be used to correlate FTPS thermal models to reconstruct in-flight thermal response.

LOFTID↗

NASA NTRS2024

Tropical Cyclones in the GEOS-S2S-2 Subseasonal Forecasts

This paper analyzes the climatology, prediction skill, and predictability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in NASA’s Global Earth Observing System Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecast system version 2. GEOS reasonably simulates the number and spatial distribution of TCs compared to observations except in the Atlantic where the model simulates too few TCs due to low genesis rates in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The environmental conditions, diagnosed through a genesis potential index, do not clearly explain model biases in the genesis rates, especially in the Atlantic. At the storm-scale, GEOS reforecasts replicate several key aspects of the thermodynamic and dynamic structure of observed TCs, such as a warm core and the secondary circulation. The model, however, fails to simulate an off-center eyewall when evaluating vertical velocity, precipitation and moisture. The analysis of prediction skill of TC genesis and occurrence shows that GEOS has comparable skill to other global models in WMO S2S archive and that its skill could be further improved by increasing the ensemble size. After calibration, GEOS forecasts are skillful in the Western North Pacific and Southern Indian Ocean up to 20 days in advance. A model-based predictability analysis demonstrates the importance of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a source of predictability of TC occurrence beyond the 14 day lead-time. Forecasts initialized under strong MJO conditions show evidence of predictability beyond week 3. However, due to model biases in the forecast distribution there are notable gaps between MJO-related prediction skill and predictability which require further study.

Jorge L. Garcia-Franco↗

DOE OSTI2021

AGR 5/6/7 Data Qualification Report for ATR Cycles 162B through 168A

This report provides the qualification status of experimental data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 fuel irradiation. AGR-5/6/7 was conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in support of development and qualification of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) low-enriched fuel for use in high temperature gas-cooled reactors. The objectives of the AGR-5/6/7 experiments are to: (i) irradiate reference-design fuel particles to support fuel qualification, (ii) establish operating margins for the fuel beyond normal operating conditions, and (iii) provide irradiated-fuel performance data and irradiated-fuel samples for post-irradiation examination (PIE) and safety testing. The test train contains five separate capsules that were independently controlled and monitored. Each capsule contains multiple 12.51-mm-long compacts filled with low enriched uranium carbide/oxide (UCO) TRISO fuel particles. The primary objective of the AGR-5/6 test (Capsules 1, 2, 4, and 5) is to verify successful performance of the reference-design fuel under normal operating conditions. The AGR-7 test (Capsule 3) was designed to explore fuel performance at higher temperatures to demonstrate the capability of the fuel to withstand conditions beyond normal operating conditions in support of plant design and licensing. AGR 5/6/7 will also provide irradiated-fuel performance data on fission-gas release from failed particles during irradiation. The AGR-5/6/7 capsules were irradiated in the ATR northeast flux trap location. The experiment began on February 16, 2018 and ended on July 22, 2020, spanning nine ATR cycles over two and a half years. Thus, the AGR-5/6/7 fuel compacts were irradiated for a total of 360.9 effective full power days. The AGR 5/6/7 experiment was able to remain in the reactor core during all three Powered Axial Locator Mechanism (PALM) cycles (163A, 165A, and 167A) without overheating its fuel compacts. This report includes irradiation monitoring data from nine ATR Cycles: 162B, 163A, 164A, 164B, 165A, 166A, 166B, 167A, and 168A, as stored in the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS). During irradiation, data records consisted of instantaneous measurements recorded every minute and provided by text files automatically every 2 hours. The AGR 5/6/7 data streams addressed in this report include thermocouple (TC) temperatures, sweep gas data (flow rates [capsule inlet, outlet, and downstream at detector], pressure, and moisture content), and Fission Product Monitoring System (FPMS) data (release rates and release to birth rate ratios [R/Bs]) for each of the five capsules. A total of 94,989,908 TC temperature and sweep gas data records were received and processed by NDMAS for AGR 5/6/7 irradiation. Of these records, 41,593,387 (or 43.7% of the total) met data collection and accuracy requirements and are labeled as Qualified. A total of 57,746,693 TC temperature readings were captured from 54 installed TCs. Among them, 10,034,676 TC temperature records (only 17.4%) were Qualified and 47,701,371 TC temperatures (or 82.6%) are Failed due to 48 TC failures (63.5%) and due to missing values (19.1%). To assess performance of the operational TCs, analysis of daily correlations between TCs found no evidence of virtual junction failure for any TCs. Analyses on control charts of TC temperature differences revealed trending in TC readings for TC2, 4, 5, and 13 in Capsule 3, but there is no conclusive indication of TC drift failure that caused those trends. Therefore, TC control charts are not used to disqualify TC data, but only for users’ consideration. For sweep gas flow rates, a total of 31,519,747 gas flow records (84.4%) are Qualified for use for AGR-5/6/7 experiment; 5,723,468 gas flow records (15.4%) are Failed due mostly to missing values; and 74,641 high sweep gas flow rates (0.2 %) are Trend. A large number of Failed missing TC temperature and gas flow values were caused by an error in the data output script that outputted a ‘NULL’ value when values were unchanged. This problem was fixed during the outage of Cycle 166B, which led to a substantially decreased number of missing values during the last three cycles. Nonetheless, a large amount of non-missing data remained because of the high data acquisition frequency (1-minute) and still provided sufficient data to effectively monitor the experiment as designed. For FPMS data, NDMAS received and processed fission product release and R/B data for nine ATR cycles, when ATR core reached full power during AGR 5/6/7 irradiation. These data consist of 110,388 release rate records and 110,388 R/B records for the twelve radionuclides (Kr 85m, Kr 87, Kr 88, Kr 89, Kr 90, Xe 131m, Xe 133, Xe 135, Xe 135m, Xe 137, Xe 138, and Xe 139) for each of the five capsules. Equivalent numbers of uncertainty records associated the release rates and R/B values were provided. To date, qualification status of the FPMS data stored in the NDMAS dat

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

High Temperature Irradiation Resistant Thermocouple Drift Model Application to Commercial Thermocouples

The Advance Sensors and Instrumentation fiscal year report on the direct application of the HTIR-TC drift model on other commercial thermocouples. The Type N and K thermocouples are useful in irradiation environments up to 1100°C (or 1290°C for short bursts and/or single use), but over temperature and high fluence can cause the TCs to drift. The HTIR-TC drift model predicts the end use environment of temperature and irradiation and the total time scale to show the amount of drift a thermocouple will undergo. The model predicts that HTIR-TCs at full temperature range and fluence of 10^21 N/cm^2 will exhibit a drift of under -1%. The type N and K TCs will see a drift of -0.5% at the same fluence, but temperatures below 1100°C. Above this temperature the Type N and K TCs quickly de-calibrate and will give erroneous temperatures measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Designing transparent conductors using forbidden optical transitions

Many semiconductors present weak or forbidden transitions at their fundamental band gaps, inducing a widened region of transparency. This occurs in high-performing n-type transparent conductors (TCs) such as Sn-doped In 2 O 3 (ITO); however, thus far, the presence of forbidden transitions has been neglected in the search for new p-type TCs. To address this, we first compute high-throughput absorption spectra across ~18, 000 semiconductors, showing that over half exhibit forbidden or weak optical transitions at their band edges. Next, we demonstrate that compounds with highly localized band-edge states are more likely to present forbidden transitions. Lastly, we search this set for p-type and n-type TCs with forbidden transitions and, by performing defect calculations, propose unexplored TC candidates such as ambipolar BeSiP 2 , p-type wurtzite BAs, and n-type Ba 2 InGaO 5 , among others. In conclusion, we share our dataset and recommend that future screenings for optical properties consider the impact of forbidden transitions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional MJO Modulation of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones Driven by Multiple Transient Controls

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is widely acknowledged for its ability to modulate Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs), but a complete understanding of the underlying mechanisms remains uncertain. Beyond established effects of the MJO's relative humidity envelope, other dynamical factors have recently been invoked via new genesis potential indices and high-resolution modeling studies. Here we revisit the ability of the MJO to modulate West Pacific TCs through a quasi-explicit cyclone downscaling strategy driven by composited observations, paired later with a genesis index to investigate regional drivers of modulation. In this work, we reveal two distinct spatial modes of TC modulation in which the MJO's dynamic and thermodynamic effects act in tandem to increase TCs. In the South China Sea, for instance, shear reductions associated with the MJO's circulation lead to increasing potential intensity ahead of the arrival of a positive humidity anomaly, all of which combine for an extended period of cyclogenesis favorability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A new method to construct a horizontal resolution-dependent wind speed adjustment factor for tropical cyclones in global climate model simulations

A new method to construct a horizontal resolution-dependent wind speed adjustment factor for evaluating tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate models (GCMs) is presented here. In contrast to the previous studies that used idealized axisymmetric wind fields, this study analyzes 48 hours of 10-second surface wind fields from 1-km TC simulations. The adjustment factor is derived from filtering the simulated TC wind fields onto various horizontal grid spacings typical of those used in GCMs. The new adjustment factor leads to TCs with greater intensity than the existing adjustment factors for horizontal grid spacings smaller than 30 km. This difference is attributed to more realistic wind fields in the TC simulations that contain highly asymmetric, localized patches of higher wind speeds instead of axisymmetric wind fields. Applying the new adjustment factor to select GCM simulations suggests the common interpretation of low-intensity bias in GCM-simulated TCs might be slightly exaggerated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical cyclone activity using the ENSO Longitude Index

Past studies have indicated that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a major role in the interannual variability of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. The primary mechanism being the eastward displacement of the warm pool during an El Nino, which carries warm water into that basin thereby creating favorable oceanic conditions. Despite this, the question of whether an accurate knowledge of ENSO enhances seasonal predictabiity of Eastern Pacific hurricanes has not been addressed specifically. In this study, we show that unlike traditional indices of ENSO, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) is able to predict Eastern Pacific hurricane activity at significant lead times. By capturing changes in the location of deep convection and associated thermocline processes more accurately, ELI explains the most variability in the upper-ocean heat content in the main development region of the Eastern Pacific basin compared to other ENSO indices. These results have substantial implications for operational seasonal forecasts of Eastern Pacific hurricanes.

Balaguru, Karthik↗

DOE OSTI2021

Observed Global Increases in Tropical Cyclone-Induced Ocean Cooling and Primary Production

Tropical cyclones (TC) provide an important source of mixing for the upper ocean, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface and triggering phytoplankton blooms. TCs are changing in response to global warming, yet the impacts of those changes on the upper ocean are poorly known. Here we show a significant increasing trend in global TC-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of 0.054oC per decade since 1982. The enhanced cooling has been driven primarily by an increase in the intensity of strong TCs (maximum wind speed > 33 m s-1) and associated strengthening of TC-induced mixing. Consistent with the enhanced mixing and SST cooling, we find a significant increase in TC-induced surface chlorophyll-a concentration of 3.7 x 10-3 mg m-3 per decade in oligotrophic areas. This enhancement of oceanic primary production by TCs is expected to partially offset its projected global decline under climate change.

Dac Da, Nguyen↗

DOE OSTI2022

Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, and El Niño and the negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons may change in the future using the high resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We performed atmosphere‐only simulations forced by sea‐surface temperature patterns characteristic of La Niña and the positive AMM jointly, and El Niño and the negative AMM jointly, in historical and future climates. Projected Atlantic TCs become more frequent in the future by approximately 34% during El Niño and negative AMM and by 66% during La Niña and positive AMM, with a significant increase in the portion of intense TCs. Warmer SSTs increase TC potential intensity, with reduced wind shear and increased mid‐tropospheric humidity further supporting TC activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Verification Suite of Test Cases for the Barotropic Solver of Ocean Models

Abstract The development of any atmosphere or ocean model warrants a suite of test cases (TCs) to verify its spatial and temporal discretizations, order of accuracy, stability, reproducibility, portability, scalability, etc. In this paper, we present a suite of shallow water TCs designed to verify the barotropic solver of atmosphere and ocean models. These include the non‐dispersive coastal Kelvin wave; the dispersive inertia‐gravity wave; the dispersive planetary and topographic Rossby waves; the barotropic tide; and a non‐linear manufactured solution. These TCs check the implementation of the linear pressure gradient term; the linear constant or variable‐coefficient Coriolis and bathymetry terms; and the non‐linear advection terms. Simulation results are presented for a variety of time‐stepping methods as well as two spatial discretizations: a mimetic finite volume method based on the TRiSK scheme, and a high‐order discontinuous Galerkin spectral element method. The experimental procedure for conducting these numerical experiments is detailed. It underscores several key considerations that vary depending on the chosen spatial discretization method. Finally, convergence studies of every TC are conducted with refinement in both space and time, only in space, and only in time. The convergence slopes match the expected theoretical predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Changes in Four Decades of Near‐CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations

We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40‐year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6‐hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture‐related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short‐term intensity variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗