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DOE OSTI2020

A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition

Energy portfolios are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel resources that perpetuate the consequences associated with climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to transition to more renewable alternatives to limit further harm to the environment. This study presents a univariate time series prediction model that evaluates sustainability outcomes of partial energy transitions. Future electricity generation at the state-level is predicted using exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best prediction results are then used as an input for a sustainability assessment of a proposed transition by calculating carbon, water, land, and cost footprints. Missouri, USA was selected as a model testbed due to its dependence on coal. Of the time series methods, ARIMA exhibited the best performance and was used to predict annual electricity generation over a 10-year period. The proposed transition consisted of a one-percent annual decrease of coal’s portfolio share to be replaced with an equal share of solar and wind supply. The sustainability outcomes of the transition demonstrate decreases in carbon and water footprints but increases in land and cost footprints. Decision makers can use the results presented here to better inform strategic provisioning of critical resources in the context of proposed energy transitions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

ATAT: Astronomical Transformer for time series and Tabular data

Context. The advent of next-generation survey instruments, such as theVera C. RubinObservatory and its Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), is opening a window for new research in time-domain astronomy. The Extended LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (ELAsTiCC) was created to test the capacity of brokers to deal with a simulated LSST stream. Aims. Our aim is to develop a next-generation model for the classification of variable astronomical objects. We describe ATAT, the Astronomical Transformer for time series And Tabular data, a classification model conceived by the ALeRCE alert broker to classify light curves from next-generation alert streams. ATAT was tested in production during the first round of the ELAsTiCC campaigns. Methods. ATAT consists of two transformer models that encode light curves and features using novel time modulation and quantile feature tokenizer mechanisms, respectively. ATAT was trained on different combinations of light curves, metadata, and features calculated over the light curves. We compare ATAT against the current ALeRCE classifier, a balanced hierarchical random forest (BHRF) trained on human-engineered features derived from light curves and metadata. Results. When trained on light curves and metadata, ATAT achieves a macro F1 score of 82.9 ± 0.4 in 20 classes, outperforming the BHRF model trained on 429 features, which achieves a macro F1 score of 79.4 ± 0.1. Conclusions. The use of transformer multimodal architectures, combining light curves and tabular data, opens new possibilities for classifying alerts from a new generation of large etendue telescopes, such as theVera C. RubinObservatory, in real-world brokering scenarios.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC) of Meteorological Time Series Data for Billy Barr, East River, Colorado USA

A comprehensive Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) statistical framework consists of three major phases: Phase 1—Preliminary raw data sets exploration, including time formatting and combining datasets of different lengths and different time intervals; Phase 2—QA of the datasets, including detecting and flagging of duplicates, outliers, and extreme values; and Phase 3—the development of time series of a desired frequency, imputation of missing values, visualization and a final statistical summary. The time series data collected at the Billy Barr meteorological station (East River Watershed, Colorado) were analyzed. The developed statistical framework is suitable for both real-time and post-data-collection QA/QC analysis of meteorological datasets.The files that are in this data package include one excel file, converted to CSV format (Billy_Barr_raw_qaqc.csv) that contains the raw meteorological data, i.e., input data used for the QA/QC analysis. The second CSV file (Billy_Barr_1hr.csv) is the QA/QC and flagged meteorological data, i.e., output data from the QA/QC analysis. The last file (QAQC_Billy_Barr_2021-03-22.R) is a script written in R that implements the QA/QC and flagging process. The purpose of the CSV data files included in this package is to provide input and output files implemented in the R script.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time–series Analysis of Volume Change at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada, USA using Geodetic Data from 2003 – 2018

Brady Hot Springs geothermal field has exhibited subsidence, as measured by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). Previous studies have examined both the temporal evolution of the deformation from 2004 through 2016 and the spatial extent of the deformation, directly relating the observed subsidence to volumetric changes below the surface. We extend the modeling at Brady to analyze a data set of interferometric pairs spanning from the end of 2003 through 2018. We examine spatial and temporal trends in the observed deformation by time–series analysis of each of the 1656 cubic voxels in a parameterized elastic dislocation model to identify areas where the subsurface volume changes as a function of time. Joint time–series analysis of Global Positioning System and InSAR pairs confirm significant changes in rates of volume change during time intervals when well operations were varied. Here, the rate of subsidence increases with increased injection, consistent with the identification of thermal contraction of the rock matrix as the dominant driving mechanism. Conversely, the modeled volume increases when pumping ceases, suggesting thermal expansion of the rock matrix.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A comprehensive framework to assess elemental mercury in the Department of Energy: A time series analysis

Objective: This study investigated whether seasonal categories affect airborne mercury concentrations in the U.S. Department of Energy operations. Methods: We conducted an initial assessment of the general variability of airborne elemental mercury time-weighted average (TWA) samples. Then, we performed a two-component time series analysis to determine whether long-term, cyclical temperature change patterns affect mercury concentrations. Results: Both ARIMA time series models demonstrated stationary, non-random means (χ² = 83.8, p < 0.001) and standard deviation (χ² = 55.8, p < 0.001) of mercury concentrations. Here, our results indicate that the seasonal factors did not influence mercury concentration. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that mercury concentrations primarily emanate from operational activities, work practices, and/or transient environmental conditions rather than seasonal fluctuations.

Cannady, Ryan T. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

DOE OSTI2021

Code Artifact for: Clustering Analysis of Commercial Vehicles Using Automatically Extracted Features from Time Series Data [SWR-21-96]

This repository contains data ingestion, feature extraction, and analysis code used in NREL Technical report "Clustering Analysis of Commercial Vehicles Using Automatically Extracted Features from Time Series Data." The code is written in Python. The ETL and feature extraction code must be run in a Spark context. The analysis code can be run without Spark, provided you have pre-computed features in a CSV file. Analysis code related to the NREL Technical Report NREL/TP-2C00-74212. Includes PySpark functions to perform trip segmentation and feature extraction over big time series data in Apache Spark. Includes "domain specific" features such as Aerodynamic Speed (ft/s), Characteristic Acceleration (ft/s2), Percent Below 55 (%), Percent Zero (%), Stops Per Mile, Average Speed (mph), Maximum Speed (mph), and Speed Standard Deviation (mph). Includes Pyspark UDF to compute "domain agnostic" features using the TSFresh library. This software record also includes the analysis notebooks and code to generate the results in the previously mentioned technical report.

Perr-Sauer, Jordan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Time-series dissolved oxygen, other bigeochemically-relevant analytes, and pressure gradients associated with the manuscript “Dissolved oxygen sensor in an automated hyporheic sampling system reveals biogeochemical dynamics”

This dataset contains time-series data from a vertical profile within the bed and banks of the Columbia river near Richland, WA. Water was sampled through 3 small tubes embedded in the sediment at 50,100, and 200 cm below the sediment-water interface. The goal of this study was to observe the correlations between hydraulic drivers and biogeochemical responses. The results of this study are published in the manuscript “Dissolved oxygen sensor in an automated hyporheic sampling system reveals biogeochemical dynamics”. The file types included in the data package are all time-series spreadsheet data, including hydraulic head gradients, physical parameters (temperature, pressure, SpC (specific conductivity)), and biogeochemical parameters (dissolved oxygen, pH, NO3 (nitrate) and ORP (oxidation-reduction potential)).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Image-based time series analysis to establish differential disease progression for two Fusarium head blight pathogens in oat spikelets with variable resistance

Oat-based value-added products have increased their value as healthy foodstuff. Fusarium head blight (FHB) infections and the mycotoxins accumulated to the oat seeds, however, pose a challenge to oat production. The FHB infections are predicted to become more prevalent in the future changing climates and under more limited use of fungicides. Both these factors increase the pressure for breeding new resistant cultivars. Until now, however, genetic links in oats against FHB infection have been difficult to identify. Therefore, there is a great need for more effective breeding efforts, including improved phenotyping methods allowing time series analysis and the identification of molecular markers during disease progression. To these ends, dissected spikelets of several oat genotypes with different resistance profiles were studied by image-based methods during disease progression by Fusarium culmorum or F. langsethiae species. The chlorophyll fluorescence of each pixel in the spikelets was recorded after inoculation by the two Fusarium spp., and the progression of the infections was analyzed by calculating the mean maximum quantum yield of PSII (F v /F m ) values for each spikelet. The recorded values were (i) the change in the photosynthetically active area of the spikelet as percentage of its initial size, and (ii) the mean of F v /F m values of all fluorescent pixels per spikelet post inoculation, both indicative of the progression of the FHB disease. The disease progression was successfully monitored, and different stages of the infection could be defined along the time series. The data also confirmed the differential rate of disease progression by the two FHB causal agents. In addition, oat varieties with variable responses to the infections were indicated.

oats↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multivariate Time Series Intermittent Fault Detectionin Controller Area Network CAN

Fault detection in Controller Area Network (CAN) systems is crucial for ensuring the reliability and safety of automotive and industrial applications. This study investigates and compares the effectiveness of time series classification models for supervised fault detection in CAN data. This repository contains the code and data for our benchmarking experiment aimed at detecting intermittent faults in automotive Controller Area Network (CAN) data. The goal of this project is to compare various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models using different Time Series Cross-Validation (TSCV) techniques to evaluate their effectiveness in a streaming environment for fault detection.

Hespeler, Steven [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

DOE OSTI2023

Logarithm-Based Methods for Interpolating Quaternion Time Series

In this paper, we discuss a modified quaternion interpolation method based on interpolations performed on the logarithmic form. This builds on prior work that demonstrated this approach maintains C 2 continuity for prescriptive rotation. However, we develop and extend this method to descriptive interpolation, i.e., interpolating an arbitrary quaternion time series. To accomplish this, we provide a robust method of taking the logarithm of a quaternion time series such that the variables $\theta$ and $\hat{n}$ have a consistent and continuous axis-angle representation. We then demonstrate how logarithmic quaternion interpolation out-performs Renormalized Quaternion Bezier interpolation by orders of magnitude.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series

Abstract. Improving the quantification of soil thermal and physical properties is key to achieving a better understanding and prediction of soil hydro-biogeochemical processes and their responses to changes in atmospheric forcing. Obtaining such information at numerous locations and/or over time with conventional soil sampling is challenging. The increasing availability of low-cost, vertically resolved temperature sensor arrays offers promise for improving the estimation of soil thermal properties from temperature time series, and the possible indirect estimation of physical properties. Still, the reliability and limitations of such an approach need to be assessed. In the present study, we develop a parameter estimation approach based on a combination of thermal modeling, sliding time windows, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to estimate thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty over time, at numerous locations and at an unprecedented vertical spatial resolution (i.e., down to 5 to 10 cm vertical resolution) from soil temperature time series. We provide the necessary framework to assess under which environmental conditions (soil temperature gradient, fluctuations, and trend), temperature sensor characteristics (bias and level of noise), and deployment geometries (sensor number and position) soil thermal diffusivity can be reliably inferred. We validate the method with synthetic experiments and field studies. The synthetic experiments show that in the presence of median diurnal fluctuations ≥ 1.5 ∘C at 5 cm below the ground surface, temperature gradients > 2 ∘C m−1, and a sliding time window of at least 4 d the proposed method provides reliable depth-resolved thermal diffusivity estimates with percentage errors ≤ 10 % and posterior relative standard deviations ≤ 5 % up to 1 m depth. Reliable thermal diffusivity under such environmental conditions also requires temperature sensors to be spaced precisely (with accuracy to a few millimeters), with a level of noise ≤ 0.02 ∘C, and with a bias defined by a standard deviation ≤ 0.01 ∘C. Finally, the application of the developed approach to field data indicates significant repeatability in results and similarity with independent measurements, as well as promise in using a sliding time window to estimate temporal changes in soil thermal diffusivity, as needed to potentially capture changes in bulk density or water content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time-series elemental imaging reveals CAX-dependent redistribution patterns for anoxia recovery

Flooding-induced oxygen deprivation (anoxia) is a challenge to plant survival, necessitating adaptive mechanisms for recovery. This study investigated elemental redistribution during anoxia recovery using time-series elemental imaging to show changes in nutrient distribution. Focusing on the role of Cation/H + Exchangers (CAXs) in Arabidopsis thaliana, we show how mutants deficient in specific CAX transporters (cax1 and the cax1-4 quadruple mutant) respond to anoxia and metal stress. Mutants showed reduced lipid peroxidation and increased expression of flood-tolerance proteins during recovery. X-ray fluorescence microscopy and laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry were used to show elemental redistribution over time. In wild-type plants (Col-0), post-anoxia elemental distribution resembled the elemental distribution of CAX mutants under normoxic conditions, suggesting that CAX-mediated elemental distribution before anoxia enables faster recovery post-anoxia, rather than affecting remobilization post-anoxia. Although CAX mutants had altered tolerance to excess manganese and copper, leaf metal distribution during metal stress was not altered. Here, these findings introduce the potential utility of time-series elemental imaging to show stress-response phenotypes and the importance of elemental distribution to recovery after anoxia. The novelty of this work lies in resolving spatial distribution patterns in a non-static system to gain insight into mechanisms of stress resilience in plants.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

QA/QC of the East River, Colorado, discharge and geochemical time series datasets (Almont, BCC, and Pump House) to be used for modeling of hydrogeochemical balance

The following datasets were QA/QC-ed (Quality Assurance/Quality Control): 1. Brush Creek Confluence (BCC) discharge data (from Helen Malenda, USGS, Colorado School of Mines), which were calculated using the pressure transducer data and rating curves. The original 15 min time series data were presented as mean daily discharge. 2. Almont discharge data from United States Geological Survey (USGS). The original data were in 15 min time intervals, and were averaged to mean daily discharge time series. 3. Pump House discharge data as mean daily discharge (downloaded from the SFA portal). 4. BCC and Pump House chemistry data from SFA data portal and/or original spreadsheets provided by Roelof Versteeg. The following challenging QA/QC problems of the datasets were resolved: Missing data with the duration of gaps up to >1 month; Duplicated dates; Anomalies and outliers of discharge and concentrations; Time stamps of measurements of the discharge and concentrations are not aligned (hydrogeochemical balance calculations require the timestamps to be aligned). All QA/QC-ed datasets are given as csv files. The csv files were prepared using the xts files with multiple worksheets, which are also included in the data packages. Figures of the QA/QC-ed datasets are given in the jpeg and pdf formats. The QA/QC-ed datasets have been used to quantify discharge and chemical concentrations in river water in order to understand riverine exports of water and dissolved constituents in the East River watershed. These datasets served as a basis in the presentation given by P. Fox et al. at the 2021 Goldschmidt Conference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extraction and Analysis of Time Series Data from Building Automation Systems Using Large Language Models

Semantic schemas like Haystack 4, Brick and ASHRAE standard 223 enable the structured, standardized, and machine-readable representation of building data, facilitating interoperability, data integration, and advanced analytics. However, extracting information from these models requires specialized expertise in SPARQL and other programming languages, skills that are not commonly found among building professionals. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, enable the construction of queries using natural language, making it easier for individuals to interact with these systems in a manner that resembles everyday speech. However, these methods have not yet been tested on building semantic ontologies. This paper introduces a novel workflow and tool for enabling users to ask questions about a specific building's data, using natural language and receive answers automatically generated by GPT-4o. Our approach integrates semantic ontologies with advanced LLM capabilities to automate three critical steps: (1) generating SPARQL queries to retrieve time series references from ontological models, (2) extracting the corresponding time series data from the Building Automation System, and (3) performing computations and visualizations tailored to the user's query. The proposed method simplifies access to BAS data, allowing both domain experts and non-specialists to conduct sophisticated analyses without needing extensive technical knowledge of semantic web technologies. By demonstrating this pipeline, we facilitate more accessible and scalable data-driven decision-making in building operations and management.

Mulayim, Ozan Baris↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extraction and Analysis of Time Series Data from Building Automation Systems Using Large Language Models

Mulayim, Ozan Baris↗

DOE OSTI2021

Time Series Surface Temperature of Variably Inundated Sediment across 30 North American Rivers

This dataset supports a broader study examining drivers of organic matter chemistry in variably inundated hyporheic zone sediments and further linking that chemistry to biogeochemical rates. The dataset provides surficial temperature time series that can be used to infer the dynamics of inundation prior to the collection of sediments. Those inferred inundation histories can then be used to help interpret variation in the organic matter chemistry. There are related data that will be published, such as FTICR-MS data on organic matter chemistry and sediment moisture. A data package with those data is forthcoming.This dataset is comprised of two folders: (1) ECA1_iButtonData and (2) ECA1_SitePhotos. The ECA1_iButtonData folder contains: (1) file-level metadata, (2) data dictionary, (3) field metadata, (4) installation methods, (5) iButton deployment protocol, (6) readme, and (7) folder of individual time series temperature csv files for each iButton sensor deployed. The ECA1_SitePhotos folder contains site photographs taken in the field. All files are .csv, .txt, .pdf, or .jpg.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

JWST Noise Floor. II. Systematic Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) holds great promise for characterizing atmospheres of transiting exoplanets, potentially providing insights into Earth-sized planets within the habitable zones of M-dwarf host stars if photon-limited performance can be achieved. Here, we discuss the systematic error sources that are expected to be present in grism time-series observations with the NIRCam instrument. We find that pointing jitter and high-gain antenna moves in addition to the detectors’ subpixel crosshatch patterns will produce relatively small variations (less than 6 parts per million, ppm). The time-dependent aperture losses due to thermal instabilities in the optics can also be kept to below 2 ppm. To achieve these low noise values, it is important to employ a sufficiently large (more than 11) extraction aperture. Persistence due to charge-trapping will have a minor (less than 3 ppm) effect on the time series 20 minutes into an exposure and is expected to play a much smaller role than it does for the Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 detectors. We expect detector temperature fluctuations to contribute less than 3 ppm. In total, our estimated noise floor from known systematic error sources is only 9 ppm per visit. We urge caution, however, because unknown systematic error sources could be present in flight and will only be measurable on astrophysical sources such as quiescent stars. We find that reciprocity failure may introduce a perennial instrument offset at the 40 ppm level, so corrections may be needed when a multi-instrument multi-observatory spectrum is stitched together over wide wavelength ranges.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Frequency-domain Analysis for Spacecraft Time Series: Introducing the Missing-data Multitaper Power Spectrum Estimator

While the Lomb–Scargle periodogram is foundational to astronomy, it has a significant shortcoming: the variance in the estimated power spectrum does not decrease as more data are acquired. Statisticians have a 60 yr history of developing variance-suppressing power spectrum estimators, but most are not used in astronomy because they are formulated for time series with uniform observing cadence and without seasonal or daily gaps. Here we demonstrate how to apply the missing-data multitaper power spectrum estimator to spacecraft data with uniform time intervals between observations but missing data during thruster fires or momentum dumps. The F-test for harmonic components may be applied to multitaper power spectrum estimates to identify statistically significant oscillations that would not rise above a white noise–based false alarm probability. Multitapering improves the dynamic range of the power spectrum estimate and suppresses spectral window artifacts. We show that the multitaper–F-test combination applied to Kepler observations of KIC 6102338 detects differential rotation without requiring iterative sinusoid fitting and subtraction. Significant signals reside at harmonics of both fundamental rotation frequencies and suggest an antisolar rotation profile. Next we use the missing-data multitaper power spectrum estimator to identify the oscillation modes responsible for the complex "scallop-shell" shape of the K2 light curve of EPIC 203354381. We argue that multitaper power spectrum estimators should be used for all time series with regular observing cadence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗