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At least 91 records · Page 5

Probability of committed warming exceeding 1.5 ∘ C and 2.0 ∘ C Paris targets

Abstract The feasibility of achieving the Paris 1.5 ∘ C target continues to be a complex and hotly debated question. To help resolve this question we calculate probability distributions of the committed warming that would ensue if all anthropogenic emissions were stopped immediately, or at successive future times. We use a simple Earth system model together with a Bayesian approach that incorporates multiple lines of evidence and accounts for known model biases. This analysis reveals a wide range of possible outcomes, including no further warming, but also a 15% chance of overshooting the 1.5 ∘ C target, and 1%–2% chance for 2 ∘ C, even if all emissions had stopped in 2020. If emissions merely stabilize in 2020 and stop in 2040, these probabilities increase to 90% and 17%. The uncertainty arises mainly from that of present forcing by aerosols. Rather than there being a fixed date by which emissions must stop, the probability of reaching either target—which is already below 100%—gradually diminishes with delays in eliminating emissions, by 3%–4% per year for 1.5 ∘ C.

Sherwood, Steven C. (ORCID:0000000174208216)↗

Scheduling strategies for the ESPRESSO follow-up of TESS targets

ABSTRACT Radial-velocity follow-up of stars harbouring transiting planets detected by TESS is expected to require very large amounts of expensive telescope time in the next few years. Therefore, scheduling strategies should be implemented to maximize the amount of information gathered about the target planetary systems. We consider myopic and non-myopic versions of a novel uniform-in-phase scheduler, as well as a random scheduler, and compare these scheduling strategies with respect to the bias, accuracy and precision achieved in recovering the mass and orbital parameters of transiting and non-transiting planets. This comparison is carried out based on realistic simulations of radial-velocity follow-up with ESPRESSO of a sample of 50 TESS target stars, with simulated planetary systems containing at least one transiting planet with a radius below 4R⊕. Radial-velocity data sets were generated under reasonable assumptions about their noise component, including that resulting from stellar activity, and analysed using a fully Bayesian methodology. We find the random scheduler leads to a more biased, less accurate, and less precise, estimation of the mass of the transiting exoplanets. No significant differences are found between the results of the myopic and non-myopic implementations of the uniform-in-phase scheduler. With only about 22 radial velocity measurements per data set, our novel uniform-in-phase scheduler enables an unbiased (at the level of 1 per cent) measurement of the masses of the transiting planets, while keeping the average relative accuracy and precision around 16 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively. The number of non-transiting planets detected is similar for all the scheduling strategies considered, as well as the bias, accuracy and precision with which their masses and orbital parameters are recovered.

Cabona, L.↗

Comparative Assessment of Pose Prediction Accuracy in RNA–Ligand Docking

Structure-based virtual high-throughput screening is used in early-stage drug discovery. Over the years, docking protocols and scoring functions for protein–ligand complexes have evolved to improve the accuracy in the computation of binding strengths and poses. In the past decade, RNA has also emerged as a target class for new small-molecule drugs. However, most ligand docking programs have been validated and tested for proteins and not RNA. Here, we test the docking power (pose prediction accuracy) of three state-of-the-art docking protocols on 173 RNA–small molecule crystal structures. The programs are AutoDock4 (AD4) and AutoDock Vina (Vina), which were designed for protein targets, and rDock, which was designed for both protein and nucleic acid targets. AD4 performed relatively poorly. For RNA targets for which a crystal structure of a bound ligand used to limit the docking search space is available and for which the goal is to identify new molecules for the same pocket, rDock performs slightly better than Vina, with success rates of 48% and 63%, respectively. However, in the more common type of early-stage drug discovery setting, in which no structure of a ligand–target complex is known and for which a larger search space is defined, rDock performed similarly to Vina, with a low success rate of ~27%. Further, Vina was found to have bias for ligands with certain physicochemical properties, whereas rDock performs similarly for all ligand properties. Thus, for projects where no ligand–protein structure already exists, Vina and rDock are both applicable. However, the relatively poor performance of all methods relative to protein–target docking illustrates a need for further methods refinement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Nickase fidelity drives EvolvR-mediated diversification in mammalian cells

Abstract In vivo genetic diversifiers have previously enabled efficient searches of genetic variant fitness landscapes for continuous directed evolution. However, existing genomic diversification modalities for mammalian genomic loci exclusively rely on deaminases to generate transition mutations within target loci, forfeiting access to most missense mutations. Here, we engineer CRISPR-guided error-prone DNA polymerases (EvolvR) to diversify all four nucleotides within genomic loci in mammalian cells. We demonstrate that EvolvR generates both transition and transversion mutations throughout a mutation window of at least 40 bp and implement EvolvR to evolve previously unreported drug-resistantMAP2K1variants via substitutions not achievable with deaminases. Moreover, we discover that the nickase’s mismatch tolerance limits EvolvR’s mutation window and substitution biases in a gRNA-specific fashion. To compensate for gRNA-to-gRNA variability in mutagenesis, we maximize the number of gRNA target sequences by incorporating a PAM-flexible nickase into EvolvR. Finally, we find a strong correlation between predicted free energy changes underlying R-loop formation and EvolvR’s performance using a given gRNA. The EvolvR system diversifies all four nucleotides to enable the evolution of mammalian cells, while nuclease and gRNA-specific properties underlying nickase fidelity can be engineered to further enhance EvolvR’s mutation rates.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Recommended methods for conducting human factors experiments on the subjective evaluation of colour rendition

This article explores the best practices for conducting psychophysical experiments that investigate how colour rendition influences the perception of architectural environments. Here, we offer guidance that covers all stages of research from preliminary development to publication, focusing especially on experiments that investigate qualities such as perceived naturalness, vividness, preference or acceptability in response to changes in the spectral power distribution of light sources. This article is intended to be a consolidated guide for researchers and reviewers of this type of research. Key recommendations include: (1) New work should be motivated by clearly expressed research questions and, when possible, explicit hypotheses that build on the existing body of knowledge, (2) visual stimuli comprising spectral power distributions and visual targets should be deliberately engineered to probe the research questions, (3) experiments should be designed to lessen potential biases, (4) reporting of experimental conditions and statistical analyses should be thorough and (5) Results should be contextual, resisting overgeneralization that cannot be supported by the data. Our motivation is to encourage high-quality research that is credible and discourage poor quality research that slows scientific progress and misuses resources.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Protective coatings with nanoscale multilayer architecture: current state and main trends

Binary systems (layers) and multicomponent layers with bilayer thicknesses varying from microns to a few nanometers are considered. A strong dependence of the microstructure formation on the deposition conditions (the magnitude of the bias potential, the flow of inert and reactive gases, the ion beam power (current density) supplied to the target) is found. General regularities in the change in the functional properties and structural state of the coatings are formulated. The conditions for the formation of a columnar structure and growth texture are noted; various mechanisms and their interpretation are proposed. Finally, the relationship among the size of nanograins, diffusion at the interphase boundary, and effects determining the physico-mechanical, tribological characteristics, as well as resistance to corrosion and oxidation, is shown.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A refined assessment of nuclear data target accuracy requirements for ALFRED

The interest in target accuracy assessment has been recently renewed within the OECD/NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Cooperation with an update exercise, thanks to the invaluable initiative of Massimo Salvatores. This work, moving from evaluations on the main core integral parameters of the Advanced Lead-cooled Fast Reactor European Demonstrator (ALFRED), and the identification of the associated target accuracies needed for improving its design, approaches the retrieval of target accuracy requirements for nuclear data, as the inverse problem of uncertainty quantification. The preliminary results obtained in a previous work are here refined by explicitly taking into account the total contribution due to correlations among variables in the optimization constraint, while its various components are evaluated individually. Moreover, three different sets of cost parameters are considered to introduce a bias in the solution in order to take in due account the relative difficulties in the execution of new differential experiments as needed for achieving the proposed target accuracies. By this, the obtained results are deemed usefully informative, and proposed for the update of a High Priority List which identifies the isotopes-reaction couples of most interest for future refinement experiments, especially when integrated with further analogous information collected on other advanced nuclear systems. Among the cross-sections whose refinement contributes the most to the reduction of the multiplication factor, the fission of Pu{sup 239} was found, which needs to be fixed below 1% in the range of interest for ALFRED (2 keV-4 MeV). Another contribution for the amelioration of the multiplication factor calculation accuracy, is due to the capture channel of Pu{sup 239}, for which the initial high uncertainty (around 15%) can be significantly reduced resorting to easily practicable experiments. The same occurs for the inelastic of Pb{sup 207}, for which the initial uncertainty value of around 50% can be drastically reduced up to target values between 4% and 7%.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Metamorphic Tunnel Junctions Grown Via MOCVD Designed for GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 /Si Tandem Solar Cells

A high-performance metamorphic Al 0.2 Ga 0.8 As 0.75 P 0.25 /GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 heterojunction tunnel junction structure was developed for application to monolithic epitaxial GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 /Si 1.7 eV/1.1 eV bandgap tandem solar cells produced via metal-organic chemical vapor deposition. Doping optimization focused on both bulk doping concentrations and mitigating the transient incorporation effects that otherwise causes non-abrupt doping profiles in the Te doped layer. Furthermore, these efforts resulted in a fully-relaxed metamorphic tunnel diode at the target lattice constant having a peak tunneling current density (JP) of 279.1 A·cm –2 and a zero-bias resistance area product (RA) of 3.0×10 –4 Ω·cm 2 . After post-growth annealing to emulate the thermal load of the GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 top cell growth and elimination of the performance enhancing carbon activation anneal, the device achieved JP = 13.1 A·cm –2 and RA = 1.5×10 –3 Ω·cm 2 . These worst-case values are very promising as they enable the operation of GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 /Si tandems under one-sun AM1.5G illumination with negligible series resistance and at AM1.5D concentrations up to 240 suns with only 0.1% absolute efficiency loss.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analog-to-digital converter based on voltage-controlled superconducting devices

The increasing demand for cryogenic electronics in superconducting and quantum computing systems calls for ultra-energy-efficient data conversion architectures that remain functional at deep cryogenic temperatures. Here, in this work, we present the first design of a voltage-controlled superconducting flash analog-to-digital converter (ADC) based on a voltage-controlled quantum-enhanced Josephson junction field-effect transistor (JJFET). Exploiting its strong gate tunability and transistor-like behavior, the JJFET offers a scalable alternative to conventional current-controlled superconducting devices while aligning naturally with CMOS-style design methodologies. Building on our previously developed Verilog-A compact model calibrated to experimental data, we design and simulate a three-bit JJFET-based flash ADC targeted for integration within cryogenic control and readout circuitry in quantum computing. The core comparator block is realized through careful bias current selection and augmented with a three-terminal nanocryotron to precisely define reference voltages. Cascaded JJFET comparators ensure robust voltage gain, cascadability, and logic-level restoration across stages. Simulation results demonstrate accurate quantization behavior with ultra-low power dissipation, underscoring the feasibility of voltage-driven superconducting mixed-signal circuits. This work establishes a critical step toward unifying superconducting logic and data conversion, paving the way for scalable cryogenic architectures in quantum–classical co-processors, low-power artificial intelligence accelerators, and next-generation energy-constrained computing platforms.

Analog-to-digital converter↗

Removing imaging systematics from galaxy clustering measurements with Obiwan: application to the SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey emission-line galaxy sample

This article presents the application of a new tool, Obiwan, which uses image simulations to determine the selection function of a galaxy redshift survey and calculate three-dimensional (3D) clustering statistics. Obiwan relies on a forward model of the process by which images of the night sky are transformed into a 3D large-scale structure catalogue, and offers several advantages over more traditional map-based techniques – such as operating on individual exposures and adopting a maximum likelihood approach. The photometric pipeline automatically detects and models galaxies and then generates a catalogue of such galaxies with detailed information for each one of them, including their location, redshift, and so on. Systematic biases in the imaging data are therefore imparted into the catalogues and must be accounted for in any scientific analysis of their information content. Obiwan simulates this process for samples selected from the Legacy Surveys imaging data. This imaging data will be used to select target samples for the next-generation Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) experiment. Here, we apply Obiwan to a portion of the SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey emission-line galaxies (ELGs). Systematic biases in the data are clearly identified and removed. We compare the 3D clustering results to those obtained by the map-based approach applied to the complete eBOSS Data Release 16 (DR16) sample. We find the results are consistent, thereby validating the eBOSS DR16 ELG catalogues, which is used to obtain cosmological results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CAD-VAE: Leveraging Correlation-Aware Latents for Comprehensive Fair Disentanglement

While deep generative models have significantly advanced representation learning, they may inherit or amplify biases and fairness issues by encoding sensitive attributes alongside predictive features. Enforcing strict independence in disentanglement is often unrealistic when target and sensitive factors are naturally correlated. To address this challenge, we propose CAD-VAE(Correlation-Aware Disentangled VAE), which introduces a correlated latent code to capture the information shared between the target and sensitive attributes. Given this correlated latent, our method effectively separates over-lapping factors without extra domain knowledge by directly minimizing the conditional mutual information between target and sensitive codes. A relevance-driven optimization strategy refines the correlated code by efficiently capturing essential correlated features and eliminating redundancy. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that CAD-VAE produces fairer representations, realistic counterfactuals, and improved fairness-aware image editing.

Ma, Chenrui [University of California Irvine]↗

Accelerating Biological Insight for Understudied Genes

Synopsis The rapid expansion of genome sequence data is increasing the discovery of protein-coding genes across all domains of life. Annotating these genes with reliable functional information is necessary to understand evolution, to define the full biochemical space accessed by nature, and to identify target genes for biotechnology improvements. The majority of proteins are annotated based on sequence conservation with no specific biological, biochemical, genetic, or cellular function identified. Recent technical advances throughout the biological sciences enable experimental research on these understudied protein-coding genes in a broader collection of species. However, scientists have incentives and biases to continue focusing on well documented genes within their preferred model organism. This perspective suggests a research model that seeks to break historic silos of research bias by enabling interdisciplinary teams to accelerate biological functional annotation. We propose an initiative to develop coordinated projects of collaborating evolutionary biologists, cell biologists, geneticists, and biochemists that will focus on subsets of target genes in multiple model organisms. Concurrent analysis in multiple organisms takes advantage of evolutionary divergence and selection, which causes individual species to be better suited as experimental models for specific genes. Most importantly, multisystem approaches would encourage transdisciplinary critical thinking and hypothesis testing that is inherently slow in current biological research.

Zoology↗

Project Title: Adaptive Vertical Grid Enhancement for E3SM (Final Technical Report)

During the first phase of the project (2018/05-2021/05), we proved the hypothesis that, without tuning, high vertical resolution improves the representation of unresolved, parameterized low altitude clouds such as stratocumulus clouds in global climate models. We evaluated the effectiveness of the newly developed computational framework, Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (FIVE) by implementing it into E3SM. FIVE aims to improve representation of the target cloud, low level cloud for this project, with use of a locally high vertical resolution for computation of selected processes. FIVE was assessed via direct comparison among E3SM, E3SM-FIVE, and satellite data as well as a newly developed ensemble artificial neural network methodology. We demonstrated that E3SM-FIVE remarkably improves marine stratocumulus representation. To advance the FIVE methodology, we took a first step toward the adaptive vertical grid in the FIVE method by modifying the E3SM single column model. For future application of FIVE to the global storm resolving model with a few km horizontal grid resolution, we developed the vertical-meridional two-dimensional (2D) Hadley circulation model, which allows one to run simulations with much higher vertical resolution and significantly longer duration than current three-dimensional global storm resolving model. During the second phase of the project (2021/05-2023/11; period for this technical report), we sought a way to appropriately transform FIVE to a regionalized version of FIVE, which allows one to select locations with/without FIVE. In parallel, we demonstrated that E3SM-FIVE with a 25-km mesh significantly reduced the bias associated with coastal stratocumulus. Furthermore, we showed that the same improvement was able to be obtained with the use of both the Regional Refined Model (RRM) targeted to one of the stratocumulus regions with 25-km resolution and FIVE. We explored a new implementation strategy of FIVE with our 2D Hadley circulation model. In parallel we applied the 2D Hadley circulation model to study the double intertropical convergence zone bias with storm resolving model resolution and aerosol-cloud interactions within the Hadley circulation with near large eddy simulation resolution. Last, we have been investigating Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds with large eddy simulations in order to improve their representation in global models. During the course of the entire project, 6 journal articles were published, and 3 manuscripts are currently in preparation. We gave a total of 30 presentations at various domestic and international conferences. In addition we gave 6 seminar talks at universities and a national laboratory. E3SM- FIVE is available as a branch of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Establishing a silica gel zone in well annulus and evaluating its performance in blocking vertical water flow

Wells are often constructed for monitoring purposes with relatively long screen lengths (e.g., >10 m). Vertical water flows can occur within the artificial or natural filterpack annulus that surrounds the screened interval, bypassing packer assemblies installed inside the wellbore. Attempts to isolate discrete vertical zones during groundwater sampling are unsuccessful when annular flow occurs and lead to remedy decisions based on biased or incorrect interpretations. Blocking vertical annular water flow and contaminant transport will help obtain more accurate concentrations of contaminants from sampling in targeted depth intervals. The application of silica gels formed from the injected colloidal silica CS suspensions is a novel approach to minimize or prevent movement of vertical movement of groundwater in the surrounding filterpack annulus. In this work, we tested the feasibility of injecting CS suspensions to target locations and developed a modified CS formulation that is injectable and prevents gravity sinking. We studied the distribution and penetration of silica gel at laboratory scale in mock well annulus with surrounding formations. We evaluated the performance of the silica gel in blocking vertical water flow in the annulus and in minimizing chemical transport through the gel zone. CS suspension formulations have been defined that are ready for injection, stay in target locations, and form gel within desired time frames. Injection of CS suspensions achieved uniform distribution in a well annulus filter pack, fully occupied the annulus pore space, and penetrated the formation surrounding the filter packer with a sufficient distance to create a hydraulic annular seal when the injection was applied at a sufficient rate. The depth of penetration into the formation was dependent on the permeability contrast between the filter pack and the surrounding formation. Silica gel that formed in the annulus blocked vertical water flow and stopped the chemical transport through the gel zone. In conclusion, this research reveals that using CS suspension injection and sequential gelation (CS-GEL) is a promising technology for blocking vertical water flow and chemical transport through the filter pack in targeted zones within the annulus of long-screened well systems.

Colloidal silica suspension↗

Thoughts on the Kibble–Robinson theory

We revisit the Kibble–Robinson theory, first proposed in 2014 by Kibble and Robinson. This theory significantly simplifies the construction and operation of Kibble balances. We conducted a theoretical investigation of the theory’s assumptions, using a corner cube as the optical target in the interferometer for velocity measurement. We find that it is advantageous to build a mechanism whose output has minimal rotation and horizontal motion. For balances with relative uncertainty targets below $1\times10^{-6}$, the mass pan and the optical target should be suspended from a common gimbal so they have the same vertical velocity and no rotation. In this case, the measurement bias due to Abbe offset is minimized, and the bias due to corner loading is repeatable.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Peak Prediction Using Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) for Edge Computing ASICs Targeting Scientific Applications

High data rate detectors play an integral part in scientific research and their development is actively pursued at High Energy Physics (HEP) facilities around the world. Edge Machine Learning (ML) offers the ability to reduce data rates by integrating ML algorithms into Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) on the front end electronics. In this work, we explore a set of neural network architectures for predicting the peak amplitudes in the detector's sensor response. We have designed and synthesized several MLP based neural networks comparing their inference accuracy, power consumption, and area targeting for minimal latency. The neural networks are synthesized in a commercial 65nm process. The effect of quantizing the network's weights and biases on hardware performance and area is reported. We also conduct design space exploration to compare between design alternatives

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity with DESI 2024 LRG and QSO samples

We analyse the large-scale clustering of the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) and Quasar (QSO) sample from the first data release (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). In particular, we constrain the primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) parameter f NL loc via the large-scale scale-dependent bias in the power spectrum using 1,631,716 LRGs (0.6 < z < 1.1) and 1,189,129 QSOs (0.8 < z < 3.1). This new measurement takes advantage of the enormous statistical power at large scales of DESI DR1 data, surpassing the latest data release (DR16) of the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS). For the first time in this kind of analysis, we use a blinding procedure to mitigate the risk of confirmation bias in our results. We improve the model of the radial integral constraint proposing an innovative technique allowing the correction through the window matrix convolution. We also carefully test the mitigation of the dependence of the target selection on the photometry qualities by incorporating an angular integral constraint contribution to the window function, and validate our methodology with the blinded data. Finally, combining the two samples, we measure f NL loc = -3.6 -9.1 +9.0 at 68% confidence, where we assume the universality relation for the LRG sample and a recent merger model for the QSO sample about the response of bias to primordial non-Gaussianity. Adopting the universality relation for the PNG bias in the QSO analysis leads to f NL loc = 3.5 -7.4 +10.7 at 68% confidence. Due to restricted selection in the LRG sample, the inclusion of the LRGs allows for 10% improvement. This measurement is the most precise determination of primordial non-Gaussianity using large-scale structure to date, surpassing the latest result from eBOSS by a factor of 2.3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

How to detect lensing rotation

Gravitational lensing rotation of images is predicted to be negligible at linear order in density perturbations, but can be produced by the post-Born lens-lens coupling at second order. This rotation is somewhat enhanced for Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing due to the large source path length, but remains small and very challenging to detect directly by CMB lensing reconstruction alone. We show the rotation may be detectable at high significance as a cross-correlation signal between the curl reconstructed with Simons Observatory (SO) or CMB-S4 data, and a template constructed from quadratic combinations of large-scale structure (LSS) tracers. Equivalently, the lensing rotation-tracer-tracer bispectrum can also be detected, where LSS tracers considered include the CMB lensing convergence, galaxy density, and the Cosmic Infrared Background (CIB), or optimal combinations thereof. We forecast that an optimal combination of these tracers can probe post-Born rotation at the level of 5.7σ–6.1σ with SO and 13.6σ–14.7σ for CMB-S4, depending on whether standard quadratic estimators or maximum a posteriori iterative methods are deployed. We also show possible improvement up to 21.3σ using a CMB-S4 deep patch observation with polarization-only iterative lensing reconstruction. However, these cross-correlation signals have non-zero bias because the rotation template is quadratic in the tracers, and exists even if the lensing is rotation free. We estimate this bias analytically, and test it using simple null-hypothesis simulations to confirm that the bias remains subdominant to the rotation signal of interest. Detection and then measurement of the lensing rotation cross-spectrum is therefore a realistic target for future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗