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Impacts of photovoltaic solar energy on soil carbon: A global systematic review and framework

Globally, solar energy is anticipated to be the primary source of electricity as early as 2050, and the greatest additions in capacity are currently in the form of large, ground-mounted photovoltaic solar energy facilities (GPVs). Growing interest lies in understanding and anticipating opportunities to increase soil carbon sequestration across the footprint and perimeter of both conventional and multi-use GPVs (e.g., ecovoltaics, agrivoltaics, and rangevolatics), especially as operators increasingly deputize as land managers. To date, studies on the relationship between soils and PV solar energy are limited to unique, localized sites. This study employed a systematic review to (i) identify a global corpus of 18 studies on interactions between GPVs and soils, (ii) collect and characterize 113 soil and soil-related experimental variables interacting with GPVs from this corpus, and (iii) synthesize trends among these experimental variables. Next, this study combined data from the systematic review with an iterative, knowledge co-production approach to produce a conceptual model for the study of soil and GPV interactions that applies to multiple installation types, scales, and contexts where GPVs are deployed, and identified research opportunities, threats, and priorities. This study's baseline understanding, conceptual model, and co-produced knowledge confer unique insight into the feasibility of combining soil carbon sequestration with the climate change mitigation potential of PV solar energy.

agrivoltaics↗

Additive Manufacturing: Disrupting Global Supply Chains and Enabling Sustainable Development

The integration of new materials and innovative manufacturing technologies into product supply chains are critically needed to address human and societal needs and to promote sustainable development and economic competitiveness. Recently, there has been tremendous growth in the additive manufacturing (AM) landscape with the introduction of high- end machines suitable for industrial applications. In addition, availability of desktop 3-D printers as well as open source printers and platforms have also facilitated the large scale growth of distributed manufacturing. The paradigm shift in thinking, where one can turn their design into product on demand, is leading to new business models and challenging traditional models of product development and distribution. In this presentation, an overview of different AM technologies will be provided along with technical challenges and opportunities. Various examples of materials (polymers, ceramics, metals, hybrids, and multi material systems) and structures achieved from utilizing a wide variety of additive manufacturing approaches will be provided. Technical challenges and opportunities for the utilization of additive manufacturing as a powerful enabler for sustainable development and disruptive technological threat to global supply chains for different materials and systems will be presented.

Additive Manufacturing↗

PRIMED for the Future: Purposing Raw Intake for Machine Learning-Enabled Detection (Final Report)

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how a novel, elusive, and diffuse biological threat can engender uncertainty and misinformation, and it underscored the need for flexible analytical modalities agnostic to the identity of biological material. Yet even before the pandemic, recognition of the limitations of the current, list-based approach, which focuses on known pathogens and biotoxins, and of the importance of agent-agnostic biodetection was growing within the biosecurity community. In a 2018 report on “Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology,” for example, the National Academy of Sciences stated that “an overreliance on the Select Agent List is a systematic weakness affecting many aspects of the United States’ current biodefense mitigation capability”. More recently, a group of biodefense researchers proposed the identification and adoption of “bioagent-agnostic signatures (BASs)” as a way of detecting and characterizing not only existing agents but also novel ones, an approach they believe will “enable a more flexible and resilient biodefense posture”. Indeed, the future of biodetection requires us to begin developing novel analytics that can identify anomalies and/or characteristics that indicate a potential threat, whether known or unknown, without looking for a specific signature that has been identified previously. To assess potential threats more rapidly, it is critical to develop agnostic artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) systems that can be employed for real-time assessment of the nature and source of a perturbation. Such systems should be multi scale and multi-dimensional, integrating sensor data from a range of biological, chemical, and physical application spaces. Emerging deep learning (DL) models demonstrate exceptional promise for identification of discriminatory features within multi-dimensional datasets. DL models have the capacity to recognize and encode highly complex patterns in a wide range of input data modalities, including images, text, and biological/chemical/physical spectra. As such, they can execute a wide range of assessments and determinations that have traditionally required a human operator. The promise of advances in DL is apparent in the realm of human health and medicine. DL models have been validated for evaluating a variety of clinical threats to human health in a range of contexts, including infection and cancer, and they demonstrated improved performance in predicting stroke relative to human neurologists in some categories of data. Continuously evolving advances in AI/ML are expected to support more efficient evaluation of raw sequence, spectroscopy, and spectrometry data. For instance, recent advances and deployment of large language models (LLM) such as Generative Pre training Transformer (GPT) and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) have already motivated application of these models for biological function prediction. As frameworks such as LLMs become larger and more complex in their representations, their capacity to serve as pre-trained models that can be fine-tuned for biological/biodetection purposes will similarly be amplified. While existing and emerging AI/ML have found broad applicability and use cases in the clinical sciences, development for environmental evaluation and biodetection has been limited. Functionalizing such capabilities for this purpose requires an understanding of the existing technical landscape and how the respective tools and algorithms are currently being employed. This landscape awareness then allows an assessment of the current practical capabilities of existing models and the anticipated requirements and development efforts that will be needed to adapt available algorithms for biodetection applications relevant to DHS. Leveraging expertise in biodetection, ML, and operational biodetection, the effort described in this report is comprised of a systematic landscape assessment (Subtask 2.1), comparative evaluation (Subtask 2.2), and formulation of a value proposition (Subtask 2.3) for the prospect of ML-enabled, agnostic biodetection from raw, or minimally-processed, datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Inertia Estimation and Trend Analysis of the United States Power Grid Interconnections

The transition from conventional to modern power systems is causing an increase in integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This generally leads to a decrease in total system inertia, which in-turn increases the system’s rate-of-change-of-frequency (RoCoF) during disturbances. This poses a threat to the frequency stability of the system and may falsely trigger protective devices. To monitor system status and plan for integrating renewable energy sources like photovoltaic, wind, and energy storage systems, a realistic study of inertia estimation and analysis in the United States (US) over the past decade is needed. This paper uses field-measured phasor measurement unit (PMU) data collected throughout the US from 2013 to 2023 via the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye) operated by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The collected PMU frequency data is utilized to estimate the system inertia of the three US interconnections: Eastern, Western, and Texas. Various RoCoF time windows are investigated for estimating the inertia of each interconnection by maximizing the correlation coefficient between the measured RoCoF and power mismatch. The resulting inertia trends over the past decade show approximately a 6% decline in inertia in the Eastern interconnection, a 15% decline in inertia in the Western interconnection, and a 16% increase in inertia in Texas. Key insights into how inertia is changing amidst the complex energy landscape are extracted using the fuel mix trend data. This provides valuable information for future energy strategies and planning.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Northern Colorado Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Assess Relationships between Snowpack and Wildfires for Water Utility Management

In recent years, wildfires in the western U.S. have increased in size, frequency, and severity. Colorado is no exception to this trend, with many recent wildfires raising concerns. The Cameron Peak and East Troublesome Fires, the two largest recorded wildfires in Colorado history, burned over 400,000 acres in 2020. Wildfires pose a significant threat to high-elevation ecosystems, especially in terms of disturbances to watershed resources. Colorado’s annual water supply is dependent upon the melt and runoff of high-elevation snowpack, thus understanding wildfire effects is crucial. This project partnered with Northern Water, a water management company in Colorado, to explore fire impacts on Colorado Front Range watersheds and water supply forecasts. We investigated the use of remote sensing to study the influences of wildfire on snow depth, as Northern Water had previously relied on field-based observations of snowpack for their water supply forecasts. This project utilized airborne LiDAR data from Airborne Snow Observatories, Inc., Landsat 8 OLI derived products, as well as in situ snow survey data from Colorado State University to assess and model changes in snowpack over time. We uncovered key drivers of change in snowpack such as burn severity and snow zone and created a random forest model to determine and investigate their relationships. Despite temporal data availability limitations, analysis also showed that remotely-sensed snow depth measurements were strongly correlated with in situ snow depth measurements, revealing the accuracy and feasibility of using remote sensing technologies to study landscape-scale snowpack characteristics for water utility management purposes.

airborne LiDAR↗

Sustainably Sourced, Thermally Resistant, Radiation Hard Biopolymer

This material represents a breakthrough in the production, manufacturing, and application of thermal protection system (TPS) materials and radiation shielding, as this represents the first effort to develop a non-metallic, non-ceramic, biomaterial-based, sustainable TPS with the capability to also act as radiation shielding. Until now, the standing philosophy for radiation shielding involved carrying the shielding at liftoff or utilizing onboard water sources. This shielding material could be grown onboard and applied as needed prior to different radiation landscapes (commonly seen during missions involving gravitational assists). The material is a bioplastic material. Bioplastics are any combination of a biopolymer and a plasticizer. In this case, the biopolymer is a starch-based material and a commonly accessible plasticizer. Starch molecules are composed of two major polymers: amylase and amylopectin. The biopolymer phenolic compounds are common to the ablative thermal protection system family of materials. With similar constituents come similar chemical ablation processes, with the potential to have comparable, if not better, ablation characteristics. It can also be used as a flame-resistant barrier for commercial applications in buildings, homes, cars, and heater firewall material. The biopolymer is observed to undergo chemical transformations (oxidative and structural degradation) at radiation doses that are 1,000 times the maximum dose of an unmanned mission (10-25 Mrad), indicating that it would be a viable candidate for robust radiation shielding. As a comparison, the total integrated radiation dose for a three-year manned mission to Mars is 0.1 krad, far below the radiation limit at which starch molecules degrade. For electron radiation, the biopolymer starches show minimal deterioration when exposed to energies greater than 180 keV. This flame-resistant, thermal-insulating material is non-hazardous and may be sustainably sourced. It poses no hazardous waste threats during its lifecycle. The material composition is radiation-tolerant up to megarad doses, indicating its use as a radiation shielding material. It is lightweight, non-metallic, and able to be mechanically densified, permitting a tunable gradient of thermal and radiation protection as needed. The dual-use (thermal and radiation shielding), sustainable nature of this material makes it suitable for both industrial applications as a sustainable/green building material, and for space applications as thermal protection material and radiation shield.

Pugel, Diane↗

Efficient Anomaly Detection Driven By Different Machine Learning Architectures And Models

The rapid growth and ubiquitous adoption of the internet and cyber-physical systems (CPS) have fundamentally transformed modern communication, work, and human-system interactions. While networks now form the backbone of critical digital ecosystems, enabling seamless data transmission across diverse, interconnected systems, this increased connectivity also expands the attack surface, making real-time detection of network intrusions and anomalies a pressing challenge. Detecting unusual activities within network infrastructure requires advanced data traffic analysis to differentiate between legitimate and malicious interactions. Traditional approaches to network anomaly detectionâ??such as rule-based and signature-based systemsâ??often depend on predefined patterns to identify known anomalies, limiting their effectiveness against emerging, stealthy, or previously unseen threats. These conventional methods suffer from high false alarm rates and fail to adapt to the ever-evolving nature of network traffic, particularly in large-scale, decentralized environments where data volume, velocity, and variety are constantly increasing. This dissertation presents artificial intelligence (AI)-driven approaches to anomaly detection that leverage graphics processing unit (GPU)-enabled high-performance computing (HPC) platforms for processing massive network traffic data and monitoring the components of cyber-physical systems (CPS) for potentially hazardous conditions. The research advances several key contributions: (1) Designing efficient machine learning techniques for CPS condition monitoring and anomaly detection; (2) enabling federated learning (FL) frameworks that enable distributed detection while preserving data privacy and system resilience; (3) exploring graph-based methodologies combining graph neural networks (GNN) and graph machine learning (ML) approaches for the Internet of Things (IoT) and automotive network security, and (4) performing distributed edge computing optimizations that integrate FL with scalable technologies for reduced communication overhead. Through extensive experiments, these methodologies demonstrate that complex anomaly detection and condition monitoring tasks can be achieved while balancing computational efficiency and detection accuracy through fine-grained network information processing. The frameworks developed in this research establish a robust foundation for network anomaly detection, providing scalable, adaptive, and privacy-preserving solutions for safeguarding CPS and IoT networks in an increasingly interconnected digital landscape. The practical implications of these research findings are significant, as they can inform the development of next-generation network security systems and contribute to the protection of critical infrastructure against sophisticated cyber attacks.

Marfo, William↗

Influence of Agricultural Managed Aquifer Recharge (AgMAR) and Stratigraphic Heterogeneities on Nitrate Reduction in the Deep Subsurface

This data package contains input files for TOUGHREACT for a modeling study examining the effects of managed aquifer recharge on agricultural lands on nitrate cycling and transport in the Central Valley of CA near Modesto. The files contain all the geochemical species, reactions, and hydrological parameters for the model. The files are text files used for the TOUGH family of code created by LBNL. To use the files a license is required. https://tough.lbl.gov/licensing-download/toughreact-licensing-download/Accompanying Paper Abstract: Agricultural managed aquifer recharge (AgMAR) is a proposed management strategy whereby surface water flows are used to intentionally flood croplands with the purpose of recharging underlying aquifers. However, legacy nitrate (NO3-) contamination in agriculturally-intensive regions poses a threat to groundwater resources under AgMAR. To address these concerns, we use a reactive transport modeling framework to better understand the effects of AgMAR management strategies (i.e., by varying the frequency, duration between flooding events, and amount of water) on N leaching to groundwater under different stratigraphic configurations and antecedent moisture conditions. In particular, we examine the potential of denitrification and nitrogen retention in deep vadose zone sediments (~15 m) using variable AgMAR application rates on two-dimensional representations of differently textured soils, soils with discontinuous bands/channels, and soils with preferential flow paths characteristic of typical agricultural field sites. Our results indicate that finer textured sediments, such as silt loams, alone or embedded within high flow regions, are important reducing zones providing conditions needed for denitrification. Simulation results further suggest that applying water all-at-once rather than in increments for a fixed volume of recharge transports higher concentrations of NO3- deeper into the profile, which has the potential to exacerbate groundwater quality. This transport into deeper depths can be aggravated by wetter antecedent soil moisture conditions. However, applying water all-at-once also increases denitrification within the vadose zone by promoting anoxic conditions. We conclude that AgMAR management strategies can be designed to enhance denitrification in the subsurface and reduce N leaching to groundwater, while specifically accounting for lithologic heterogeneity, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and depth to the water table. Our findings are potentially relevant to other systems that experience flooding inundation such as riparian corridors, floodplains, wetlands, and other managed landscapes like dedicated recharge basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Functional All-Hazard Approach to Critical Infrastructure Dependency Analysis

The critical infrastructures protection landscape is a vast and varied pattern of independent, but interconnected infrastructure systems that are essential to the function of our modern society. The U.S. policy on critical infrastructure protection has been continually evolving since the “President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection” was published in 1997. In response to these policies, federal, state, and local governments, along with research institutions, have invested a substantial amount of time and effort into identifying and analyzing critical infrastructure, their functions, and dependencies/interdependencies to better understand their vulnerabilities. To date, the ability to assess vulnerabilities, resiliency, and priorities for protecting interdependent critical infrastructure systems from an all-hazards perspective remains a difficult problem. In this paper we introduce the All-Hazards Analysis (AHA) methodology, which provides an integrated functional basis across infrastructure systems, through the implementation of a common language and a scalable level of decomposition to effectively evaluate the resilience of interconnected infrastructure systems. AHA models infrastructure systems as directed multidimensional graphs, which enable the evaluation of cross-sector interdependencies prior to, during, and after disruptive events. Finally, and by design, AHA enables the cross linking of data taxonomies to enable more effective data sharing, such as the National Critical Functions (NCF) and Infrastructure Data Taxonomy (IDT).

02 PETROLEUM↗

Threatened and Endangered Species Survey for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida

A review of previous environmental work conducted at Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB) indicated that several threatened, endangered, or species of special concern occurred or had the potential to occur there. This study was implemented to collect more information on protected species at PAFB. A map of landcover types was prepared for PAFB using aerial photography, groundtruthing, and a geographic information system (GIS). Herbaceous vegetation was the most common vegetation type. The second most abundant vegetation type was disturbed shrubs/exotics. The beach and associated dune vegetation comprised 3.2% of the land area, but was the most extensive natural community within PAFB. A few isolated mangrove communities exist along the Banana River. Seventy-seven species of vascular plants occurred on the dunes, including four species listed by state agencies: spider lily (Hymenocallis latifolia), prickly pear cactus (Opuntia stricta), beach star (Remirea maritima), and inkberry (Scaevola plumien). Surveys of other habitats revealed eighty-four species of vascular plants including two state-listed species: spider lily and prickly pear cactus. Many of these areas are dominated by invasive, exotic species, particularly Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and Australian pine (Casuarina equisetifolia), and native species of open or disturbed sites such as camphorweed (Heterotheca subaxillaris) and beardgrass (Andropogon spp.). Due to the isolation of PAFB from other natural areas, most exotic plant populations on the base are not an immediate threat to intact native plant communities. Dune habitat was surveyed for the southeastem beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris) by quarterly trapping along eight 100 m transects. No beach mice were found. The limited extent of dune habitat, its fragmented condition, and the isolation of PAFB from extant populations of the beach mouse probably accounts for its absence. Surveys of birds on PAFB found an avifauna characteristic of species that occur in the Indian River Lagoon system. Twenty-five species of waterbirds were observed during quarterly surveys on PAFB, including five species listed as species of special concern by the state of Florida: Snowy Egret (Egretta thula), Little Blue Heron (Egretta caerulea), Tricolored Heron (Egretta tricolo4, White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), and Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis). The Golf Course was used extensively by almost all species of waterbirds on PAFB. Twenty-two species of shorebirds were observed on PAFB. Although no listed species were observed, the potential exists for several protected species of shorebirds to use the beach at PAFB during some parts of the year. The Airfield runways and associated grass areas were important sites at PAFB for loafing and feeding for some shorebirds. Surveys of rooftop nesting by Least Terns (Stema antillarum) on PAFB found a large colony on a rooftop in the PAFB Industrial Area. This colony produced some independent young. Two rooftop Least Tern colonies reported from previous years were inactive during 1996. A small number of Black Skimmers (Rhynchops nigee attempted to nest at the Least Ten colony but were unsuccessful. Surveys for the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) revealed burrows and tortoises only at the Waste Study Site; five burrows and three tortoises were observed. No Florida scrub lizards (Sceloporus woodi), eastern indigo snakes (Drymarchon corais couperl), or diamondback terrapins (Malademys terrapin terrapin) were observed. American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) were observed on the Golf Course and using ditches, ponds, and areas along the Banana River. The amount of dune habitat could be expanded by not mowing areas adjacent to the dunes to allow dune species to colonize and expand. Planting dune species as part of the beach renourishment project will also increase this habitat. Exotic plants dominate several areas on the base and are used by threatened, endangered, and species of special concern. However, the use of native vegetation in landscaping projects throughout the base would improve habitat for wildlife, and invasive, exotic plants should not be used in any horticultural plantings. Water quality of ponds, ditches, and canals is important for waterbirds; it should be maintained and protected from contamination. Nesting Least Terns are sensitive to disturbance; rooftops used for nesting should be protected from disturbance. Monitoring of Least Tern and Black Skimmer nesting should be continued to determine what roofs are being used and whether nesting is successful. Furthermore, based on the large numbers of waterbirds observed on PAFB, continued monitoring of them is recommended.

Oddy, Donna M.↗

Behavioral patterns of bats at a wind turbine confirm seasonality of fatality risk

Abstract Bat fatalities at wind energy facilities in North America are predominantly comprised of migratory, tree‐dependent species, but it is unclear why these bats are at higher risk. Factors influencing bat susceptibility to wind turbines might be revealed by temporal patterns in their behaviors around these dynamic landscape structures. In northern temperate zones, fatalities occur mostly from July through October, but whether this reflects seasonally variable behaviors, passage of migrants, or some combination of factors remains unknown. In this study, we examined video imagery spanning one year in the state of Colorado in the United States, to characterize patterns of seasonal and nightly variability in bat behavior at a wind turbine. We detected bats on 177 of 306 nights representing approximately 3,800 hr of video and > 2,000 discrete bat events. We observed bats approaching the turbine throughout the night across all months during which bats were observed. Two distinct seasonal peaks of bat activity occurred in July and September, representing 30% and 42% increases in discrete bat events from the preceding months June and August, respectively. Bats exhibited behaviors around the turbine that increased in both diversity and duration in July and September. The peaks in bat events were reflected in chasing and turbine approach behaviors. Many of the bat events involved multiple approaches to the turbine, including when bats were displaced through the air by moving blades. The seasonal and nightly patterns we observed were consistent with the possibility that wind turbines invoke investigative behaviors in bats in late summer and autumn coincident with migration and that bats may return and fly close to wind turbines even after experiencing potentially disruptive stimuli like moving blades. Our results point to the need for a deeper understanding of the seasonality, drivers, and characteristics of bat movement across spatial scales.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The impact of habitat fragmentation on domatia-dwelling mites and a mite-plant-fungus tritrophic interaction

Abstract Context Habitat fragmentation is a leading threat to biodiversity, yet the impacts of fragmentation on most taxa, let alone interactions among those taxa, remain largely unknown. Objectives We studied how three consequences of fragmentation—reduced patch connectivity, altered patch shape, and edge proximity—impact plant-dwelling mite communities and mite-plant-fungus interactions within a large-scale habitat fragmentation experiment. Methods We sampled mite communities from the leaves of Quercus nigra (a plant species that has foliar domatia which harbor fungivorous and predacious mites) near and far from edge within fragments of varying edge-to-area ratio (shape) and connectivity via corridors. We also performed a mite-exclusion experiment across these fragmentation treatments to test the effects of mite presence and fungal hyphal abundance on leaf surfaces. Results Habitat edges influenced the abundance and richness of leaf-dwelling mites; plants closer to the edge had higher mite abundance and species richness. Likewise, hyphal counts were higher on leaves near patch edges. Despite both mite and fungal abundance being higher at patch edges, leaf hyphal counts were not impacted by mite abundance on those leaves. Neither patch shape nor connectivity influenced mite abundance, mite species richness, or the influence of mites on leaf surface fungal abundance. Conclusion Our results suggest that mites and foliar fungi may be independently affected by edge-structured environmental gradients, like temperature, rather than trophic effects. We demonstrate that large-scale habitat fragmentation and particularly edge effects can have impacts on multiple levels of microscopic communities, even in the absence of cascading trophic effects.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense (Final)

In the world of ever-advancing technology, Autonomous Systems (AS) find extensive application, bolstering functionalities of critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants. These systems, however, are increasingly becoming a target for nefarious activities, namely through inference attacks, trojan attacks, and adversarial reprogramming. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of machine learning (ML)-driven autonomous control systems within advanced nuclear reactor designs, revealing the vulnerabilities and proposing strategies for defense against potential cyber-attacks. Advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)- based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber-physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems. As global reliance on generation III reactors begins to be critically assessed, the evolution towards advanced reactor systems utilizing digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) becomes not merely preferable, but essential. The integration of semi and fully autonomous control systems (ACS), powered by digital I&C and machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies, emerges as a potent strategy to mitigate operations and maintenance costs, thereby enhancing the economic feasibility of novel reactor designs. However, with a staggering 500% and 380% increase in cyber-attacks reported against the energy sector by the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the European Union respectively, a surge in cyber vulnerabilities specifically targeting the nuclear industry has been 2 markedly observed. Notable incidents, such as the W32.Ramnit spyware infiltration at the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany and the Dtrack spyware intrusion at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India, while not directly compromising core industrial control systems (ICS), underscore a compelling necessity to fortify cybersecurity protocols in safeguarding reactor systems against increasingly adept digital adversaries. In light of this, our investigation extends beyond conventional cybersecurity parameters, diving into the intricate web of potential vulnerabilities woven into ML-based DTs and ACS in advanced reactor systems. A crafted cyber-physical testbed and preliminary ACS were devised to act as a mirror, reflecting potential configurations of advanced reactor control designs. Moreover, this study is intertwined with a scrutinization of ML models, developed either through conventional, manually tuned methodologies or via automated means through AutoML, probing into their cyber-risk profiles within operational technology (OT) environments. Expanding on this, two distinct ACS blueprints were forged – one navigating through the corridors of traditional ML and the other traversing the path of AutoML – in an effort to holistically encapsulate the considerations pivotal to ML-based DT control system design. Employing the SANS Institute Industrial Control System (ICS) Kill Chain and the MITRE ATT&CK Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) framework, a structured analysis was conducted, launching three targeted attacks against the training dataset, real-time dataset, and ML models, therein dissecting the potential cyber-attack implications against both ML frameworks within an ACS milieu. It is essential to note that three distinct categories of attacks were conducted against both ACS configurations, each encompassing three distinct ML-based DTs, cumulating in a total of 18 varied attacks. This exploration extends into the realms of Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense, unraveling vulnerabilities, and opportunities for fortified defenses against such intrusions, particularly where ML-driven technologies, and by extension, ACS, are deployed. Final recommendations, articulated through a lens of security, safeguard, and implementation considerations, are presented for both traditional and AutoML models, anchoring upon the existing knowledge landscape and ML-based DT modeling for ACS, and are offered as a beacon to guide the nuclear industry through the intricate cybersecurity challenges that lie ahead.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗