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Statistical Sampling of Tide Heights Study

The goal of the study was to determine if it was possible to reduce the cost of verifying computational models of tidal waves and currents. Statistical techniques were used to determine the least number of samples required, in a given situation, to remain statistically significant, and thereby reduce overall project costs. Commercial, academic, and Federal agencies could benefit by applying these techniques, without the need to 'touch' every item in the population. For example, the requirement of this project was to measure the heights and times of high and low tides at 8,000 locations for verification of computational models of tidal waves and currents. The application of the statistical techniques began with observations to determine the correctness of submitted measurement data, followed by some assumptions based on the observations. Among the assumptions were that the data were representative of data-collection techniques used at the measurement locations, that time measurements could be ignored (that is, height measurements alone would suffice), and that the height measurements were from a statistically normal distribution. Sample means and standard deviations were determined for all locations. Interval limits were determined for confidence levels of 95, 98, and 99 percent. It was found that the numbers of measurement locations needed to attain these confidence levels were 55, 78, and 96, respectively.

Source record

Resource Assessment Study of Long Island Sound Tidal Resource in New York State Waters Based on Numerical Modeling (Abstract)

To refine the understanding of the tidal energy resource in Long Island Sound (LIS), Verdant Power and PNNL will collaborate to conduct a numerical modeling campaign in accordance with a Stage 2 resource assessment according to IEC TC 62600-201. The work will develop a high resolution tidal hydrodynamic model using FVCOM in LIS, validate the model using NOAA C-MIST ADCP data, and conduct a Stage 2 array layout design study at selected hotspots within the project area. The teams will also model tidal energy extraction using the FVCOMTEC module at the hotspot sites, based on specific device technologies provided by Verdant Power. Model results from this study will inform additional resource assessment activities such as in situ water velocity measurements for further model validation and elucidate understanding of other key sites in Long Island Sound for commercial-scale tidal energy deployments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER

A massive early atmosphere on Triton

The idea of an early greenhouse atmosphere for Triton is presented and the conditions under which it may have been sustained are quantified. The volatile content of primordial Triton is modeled, and tidal heating rates are assessed to set bounds on the available energy. The atmospheric model formalism is presented, and it is shown how a massive atmosphere could have been raised by modest tidal heating fluxes. The implications of the model atmospheres for the atmospheric escape rates, the chemical evolution, and the cratering record are addressed.

Lunine, Jonathan I.

Physical Oceanography in the Solar System and Beyond

A key controller of a planet’s rotational evolution, and hence habitability, is tidal dissipation, which on Earth occurs primarily in the oceans. As the discovery of habitable exoplanets is a primary objective of exoplanet research, it is imperative that we understand how “exo-oceans” behave. Despite this importance, little research has investigated the physical oceanography of worlds other than Earth. This oversight has occurred even though the Earth science community has studied tidal flows in Earth’s oceans for over a century and developed sophisticated models that exquisitely match satellite altimetry data, e.g. Here, we present a) models of tidal effects on exoplanets to motivate the problem, b) the application of a physical oceanography model to a putative ancient Venus ocean, and c) the application of that model to an ensemble of “alternative Earths” with a range of continental configurations and seafloor properties. We find that oceanic tidal dissipation can span 5 orders of magnitude, revealing that simulating exo-oceans with Earth science tools will provide fundamental insight into exoplanet evolution and habitability

Physical Oceanography

The International DORIS Service contribution to ITRF2020

For the realization of the 2020 International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2020), the International DORIS Service delivered to the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) a set of 1456 weekly solution files from 1993.0 to 2021.0 including station coordinates and Earth orientation parameters (EOPs). The data come from fourteen DORIS satellites: TOPEX/Poseidon, SPOT-2, SPOT-3, SPOT-4, SPOT-5, Envisat, Jason-1, Jason-2, Cryosat-2, Saral, HY-2A, Jason-3, Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-3B. In their processing, the four analysis centers which contributed to the DORIS combined solution used the latest time variable gravity models, the new mean pole and diurnal-subdiurnal tidal EOP models recommended by IERS. In addition, all the analysis centers included in their processing precise SPOT-5 solar panel angle values and quaternions for, at least, the Jason satellites. Furthermore, a new Alcatel phase center variation model was implemented for the ITRF2020 processing. The main objective of this study is to present the combination process and to analyze the impact of the new modeling on the performance of the new combined solution. Comparisons with the IDS contribution to ITRF2014 show that i) the application of the new phase center variations for the Alcatel DORIS ground antennas in the data processing combined with the gradual replacement over time of the Alcatel by Starec antennas implies a scale drift from 1993.0 to 2002.5 and ii) thanks to a better modeling of the surface forces on the satellites, the new combined solution shows smaller annual and 118-day signals in the geocenter. A new DORIS terrestrial reference frame was computed to evaluate the intrinsic quality of the new combined solution. That evaluation shows that over almost the full time span the intrinsic IDS scale values lie in a range of ±5 mm. After mid-2008, the new DORIS reference frame has an internal position consistency in North-East-Up better than 7.5 mm.

DORIS

Australian tidal currents – assessment of a barotropic model (COMPAS v1.3.0 rev6631) with an unstructured grid

While the variations of tidal range are large and fairly well known across Australia (less than 1 m near Perth but more than 14 m in King Sound), the properties of the tidal currents are not. We describe a new regional model of Australian tides and assess it against a validation dataset comprising tidal height and velocity constituents at 615 tide gauge sites and 95 current meter sites. The model is a barotropic implementation of COMPAS, an unstructured-grid primitive-equation model that is forced at the open boundaries by TPXO9v1. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the modelled M2 height amplitude is 8.8 cm, or 12 % of the 73 cm mean observed amplitude. The MAE of phase (10°), however, is significant, so the M2 mean magnitude of vector error (MMVE, 18.2 cm) is significantly greater. The root sum square over the eight major constituents is 26 % of the observed amplitude. We conclude that while the model has skill at height in all regions, there is definitely room for improvement (especially at some specific locations). For the M2 major axis velocity amplitude, the MAE across the 95 current meter sites, where the observed amplitude ranges from 0.1 to 156 cm s −1 , is 6.9 cm s −1 , or 22 % of the 31.7 cm s −1 observed mean. This nationwide average result is encouraging, but it conceals a very large regional variation. Relative errors of the tidal current amplitudes on the narrow shelves of New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australia exceed 100 %, but tidal currents are weak and negligible there compared to non-tidal currents, so the tidal errors are of little practical significance. Looking nationwide, we show that the model has predictive value for much of the 79 % of Australia's shelf seas where tides are a major component of the total velocity variability. In descending order this includes the Bass Strait, the Kimberley to Arnhem Land, and southern Great Barrier Reef regions. There is limited observational evidence to confirm that the model is also valuable for currents in other regions across northern Australia. We plan to commence publishing “unofficial” tidal current predictions for chosen regions in the near future based on both our COMPAS model and the validation dataset we have assembled.

Tidal currents

Tidal heating in an internal ocean model of Europa

Results are reported from computations of tidal heating processes in a realistic three-layer Europa model featuring an elastic ice lithosphere, an underlying inviscid water layer, and an elastic silicate core. The volumic density of the outer two layers were 940 and 1000, respectively, while the Europan mean density was 3030 kg/cu m and the total depth of the water layers was 100 km. Calculations of various thermal distributions in the liquid layer, heated tidally by the core, indicate that a decoupled ice lithosphere would be distorted by 23 m at the sub-jovian point, which would correspond with a Love number of 0.26. The tidal heating scenario does not explain the observed recent cracking of Europa's surface, unless the satellite also recently had a significantly more eccentric orbit.

Ross, M. N.

Development of a three dimensional numerical water quality model for continental shelf applications

A model to predict the distribution of water quality parameters in three dimensions was developed. The mass transport equation was solved using a non-dimensional vertical axis and an alternating-direction-implicit finite difference technique. The reaction kinetics of the constituents were incorporated into a matrix method which permits computation of the interactions of multiple constituents. Methods for the computation of dispersion coefficients and coliform bacteria decay rates were determined. Numerical investigations of dispersive and dissipative effects showed that the three-dimensional model performs as predicted by analysis of simpler cases. The model was then applied to a two dimensional vertically averaged tidal dynamics model for the Providence River. It was also extended to a steady state application by replacing the time step with an iteration sequence. This modification was verified by comparison to analytical solutions and applied to a river confluence situation.

Spaulding, M.

Mercurian global tectonics - A consequence of tidal despinning

The surface of Mercury exhibits a global tectonic system consisting of an ancient set of NE and NW tending lineaments and a younger set of planimetrically arcuate escarpments interpreted as thrust of high-angle reverse faults. The trends, distribution, and age relations of these tectonic features can be explained by a combination of tidal despinning and global contraction of the planet. In our model, early tidal despinning resulted in conjugate shear fractures trending roughly N60 deg E and N60 deg W which were subsequently modified by a variety of surface processes to produce the presently visible set of lineaments. Continued despinning plus global contraction produced thrust faults with roughly north-south trends. Final contraction may have postdated despinning and produced randomly oriented thrust faults. All of these events predated the formation of Caloris basin, because basin-associated deposits blanket both lineaments and arcuate thrust faults.

Melosh, H. J.

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear

We present legacy cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints using six years of Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From these data, we study ~140 million galaxies (8.29 galaxies/arcmin$^2$) that are 50% complete at i=24.0 and extend beyond z=1.2. We divide the galaxies into four redshift bins, and obtain cosmic shear measurement with a signal-to-noise of 83, a factor of 2 higher than the Year 3 analysis. We model the uncertainties due to shear and redshift calibrations, and discard measurements on small angular scales to mitigate baryon feedback and other small-scale uncertainties. We consider two fiducial models to account for the intrinsic alignment (IA) of the galaxies. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Λ$CDM model and find $S_8 \equiv σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}=0.798^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ (marginalized mean with 68% CL) when using the non-linear alignment model (NLA) and $S_{8} = 0.783^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ with the tidal alignment and tidal torque model (TATT), providing 1.8% and 2.5% uncertainty on $S_8$. Compared to constraints from the cosmic microwave background from Planck 2018, ACT DR6 and SPT-3G DR1, we find consistency in the full parameter space at 1.1$σ$ (1.7$σ$) and in $S_8$ at 2.0$σ$ (2.3$σ$) for NLA (TATT). The result using the NLA model is preferred according to the Bayesian evidence. We find that the model choice for IA and baryon feedback can impact the value of our $S_8$ constraint up to $1σ$. For our fiducial model choices, the resultant uncertainties in $S_8$ are primarily degraded by the removal of scales, as well as the marginalization over the IA parameters. We demonstrate that our result is internally consistent and robust to different choices in calibrating the data, owing to methodological improvements in shear and redshift measurement, laying the foundation for next-generation cosmic shear programs.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.]

Tidal regime of intact planetoid capture model for the Earth-Moon system: Does it relate to the archean sedimentary rock record?

Regardless of one's favorite model for the origin of the Earth-Moon system (fission, coformation, tidal capture, giant-impact) the early history of lunar orbital evolution would produce significant thermal and earth and ocean tidal effects on the primitive earth. Three of the above lunar origin models (fission, coformation, giant-impact) feature a circular orbit which undergoes a progressive increase in orbital radius from the time of origin to the present time. In contrast, a tidal capture model places the moon in an elliptical orbit undergoing progressive circularization from the time of capture (for model purposes about 3.9 billion years ago) for at least a few 10(exp 8) years following the capture event. Once the orbit is circularized, the subsequent tidal history for a tidal capture scenario is similar to that for other models of lunar origin and features a progressive increase in orbital radius to the current state of the lunar orbit. This elliptical orbit phase, if it occurred, should have left a distinctive signature in the terrestrial and lunar rock records. Depositional events would be associated terrestrial shorelines characterized by abnormally high, but progressively decreasing, ocean tidal amplitudes and ranges associated with such an orbital evolution. Several rock units in the age range 3.6-2.5 billion years before present are reported to have a major tidal component. Examples are the Warrawoona, Fortescue, and Hamersley Groups of Western Australia and the Pangola and Witwatersand Supergroups of South Africa. Detailed study of the features of these tidal sequences may be helpful in deciphering the style of lunar orbital evolution during the Archean Eon.

Malcuit, Robert J.

Dynamic sea surface topography, gravity and improved orbit accuracies from the direct evaluation of SEASAT altimeter data

A method for the simultaneous solution of dynamic ocean topography, gravity and orbits using satellite altimeter data is described. A GEM-T1 based gravitational model called PGS-3337 that incorporates Seasat altimetry, surface gravimetry and satellite tracking data has been determined complete to degree and order 50. The altimeter data is utilized as a dynamic observation of the satellite's height above the sea surface with a degree 10 model of dynamic topography being recovered simultaneously with the orbit parameters, gravity and tidal terms in this model. PGS-3337 has a geoid uncertainty of 60 cm root-mean-square (RMS) globally, with the uncertainty over the altimeter tracked ocean being in the 25 cm range. Doppler determined orbits for Seasat, show large improvements, with the sub-30 cm radial accuracies being achieved. When altimeter data is used in orbit determination, radial orbital accuracies of 20 cm are achieved. The RMS of fit to the altimeter data directly gives 30 cm fits for Seasat when using PGS-3337 and its geoid and dynamic topography model. This performance level is two to three times better than that achieved with earlier Goddard earth models (GEM) using the dynamic topography from long-term oceanographic averages. The recovered dynamic topography reveals the global long wavelength circulation of the oceans with a resolution of 1500 km. The power in the dynamic topography recovery is now found to be closer to that of oceanographic studies than for previous satellite solutions. This is attributed primarily to the improved modeling of the geoid which has occurred. Study of the altimeter residuals reveals regions where tidal models are poor and sea state effects are major limitations.

Marsh, J. G.

Geodynamic Effects of Ocean Tides: Progress and Problems

Satellite altimetry, particularly Topex/Poseidon, has markedly improved our knowledge of global tides, thereby allowing significant progress on some longstanding problems in geodynamics. This paper reviews some of that progress. Emphasis is given to global-scale problems, particularly those falling within the mandate of the new IERS Special Bureau for Tides: angular momentum, gravitational field, geocenter motion. For this discussion I use primarily the new ocean tide solutions GOT99.2, CSR4.0, and TPXO.4 (for which G. Egbert has computed inverse-theoretic error estimates), and I concentrate on new results in angular momentum and gravity and their solid-earth implications. One example is a new estimate of the effective tidal Q at the M_2 frequency, based on combining these ocean models with tidal estimates from satellite laser ranging. Three especially intractable problems are also addressed: (1) determining long-period tides in the Arctic [large unknown effect on the inertia tensor, particularly for Mf]; (2) determining the global psi_l tide [large unknown effect on interpretations of gravimetry for the near-diurnal free wobble]; and (3) determining radiational tides [large unknown temporal variations at important frequencies]. Problems (2) and (3) are related.

Richard, Ray

Twenty Years of Progress on Global Ocean Tides: The Impact of Satellite Altimetry

At the dawn of the era of high-precision altimetry, before the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon, ocean tides were properly viewed as a source of noise--tidal variations in ocean height would represent a very substantial fraction of what the altimeter measures, and would have to be accurately predicted and subtracted if altimetry were to achieve its potential for ocean and climate studies. But to the extent that the altimetry could be severely contaminated by tides, it also represented an unprecedented global-scale tidal data set. These new data, together with research stimulated by the need for accurate tidal corrections, led to a renaissance in tidal studies in the oceanographic community. In this paper we review contributions of altimetry to tidal science over the past 20 years, emphasizing recent progress. Mapping of tides has now been extended from the early focus on major constituents in the open ocean to include minor constituents, (e.g., long-period tides; non-linear tides in shelf waters, and in the open ocean), and into shallow and coastal waters. Global and spatially local estimates of tidal energy balance have been refined, and the role of internal tide conversion in dissipating barotropic tidal energy is now well established through modeling, altimetry, and in situ observations. However, energy budgets for internal tides, and the role of tidal dissipation in vertical ocean mixing remain controversial topics. Altimetry may contribute to resolving some of these important questions through improved mapping of low-mode internal tides. This area has advanced significantly in recent years, with several global maps now available, and progress on constraining temporally incoherent components. For the future, new applications of altimetry (e.g., in the coastal ocean, where barotropic tidal models remain inadequate), and new mission concepts (studies of the submesoscale with SWOT, which will require correction for internal tides) may bring us full circle, again pushing further development of tidal models as corrections.

Egbert, Gary

TPSAS-NF1676L-13204-DND

Invasive perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) has spread rapidly throughout the western United States in the past fifteen years. Pepperweed outcompetes many native species for water and nutrients, disturbing sensitive ecosystems. The purpose of this study is to map the contemporary distribution of pepperweed throughout the wetland ecosystem of the restored South San Francisco Bay Salt Ponds and create a habitat suitability model to predict future spread. Pepperweed reflectance data were collected in-situ with the GER 1500 spectroradiometer along with presence and absence pepperweed GPS data points. A Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) classification algorithm (Method A) was used to distinguish pepperweed spectra and map its distribution on an EO-1 Hyperion image of the study area. Similarly, a supervised classification was run on an ASTER image of the study area. A GIS multivariate habitat suitability model was created to predict areas most susceptible to pepperweed colonization. Variables incorporated into the model were tidal extent, propensity for disturbance, pond salinity, proximity to levees and channels, and terrain curvature. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was also used to generate a suitability map (Method B) and investigate the statistical probability that each variable contributed to predict pepperweed spread. Results from the GAM revealed distance to channels, distance to disturbance factors, extreme pond salinity and curvature as statistically significant in determining the locations of suitable pepperweed habitats

Andrew Nguyen

Tidal disruption of Periodic Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 and a constraint on its mean density

The apparent tidal disruption of Periodic Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (1993e) during a close encounter within approximately 1.62 planetary radii of Jupiter can be used along with theoretical models of tidal disruption to place an upper bound on the density of the predisruption body. Depending on the theoretical model used, these upper bounds range from rho(sub c) less than 0.702 +/- 0.080 g/cu cm for a simple analytical model calibrated by numerical smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations to rho(sub c) less than 1.50 +/- 0.17 g/cu cm for a detailed semianalytical model. The quoted uncertainties stem from an assumed uncertainty in the perijove radius. However, the uncertainty introduced by the different theoretical models is the major source of error; this uncertainty could be eliminated by future SPH simulations specialized to cometary disruptions, including the effects of initially prolate, spinning comets. If the SPH-based upper bound turns out to be most appropriate, it would be consistent with the predisruption body being a comet with a relatively low density and porous structure, as has been asserted previously based on observations of cometary outgassing. Regardless of which upper bound is preferable, the models all agree that the predisruption body could not have been a relatively high-density body, such as an asteroid with rho approximately = 2 g/cu cm.

Boss, Alan P.

North-Australian tropical seas circulation study

This investigation is intended to fully address the stated objective of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1986). Hence, we intend to use TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data to study the large-scale circulation of the Coral Sea Basin and the Arafura Sea and the mass exchange between these and adjoining basins. We will obtain data from two such cruises in 1993 and 1994 and combine them with TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry data to identify interannual and seasonal changes in: (1) the location of the major ocean currents and the South Equatorial Current bifurcation in the Coral Sea; (2) the source region of the South Tropical Counter Current (STCC); and (3) the water exchange between the Coral Sea and the adjoining seas. We will also estimate seasonal and interannual variations in the horizontal transport of mass and heat associated with near-surface geostrophic and wind-driven currents. In addition, the tidal components of the Coral Sea will be studied to provide a correction for altimetry subtidal sea level changes and to develop a regional numerical model for tidal forcing in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and Papua New Guinea Reef regions.

Burrage, Derek