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At least 91 records · Page 5

Verification by remote sensing of an oil slick movement prediction model

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT, aircraft, ships, and air-dropped current drogues were deployed to determine current circulation and to track oil slick movement on four different dates in Delaware Bay. The results were used to verify a predictive model for oil slicks given their size, location, tidal stage (current), weather (wind), and nature of crude. Both LANDSAT satellites provided valuable data on gross circulation patterns and convergent coastal fronts which by capturing oil slicks significantly influence their movement and dispersion.

Klemas, V.

Ring torque on Janus and the melting of Enceladus

The absence of craters noted on Voyager 2 images of Encedalus indicates geologically recent resurfacing, probably due to internal melting; heating mechanism calculations, however, yield heating rates too small to cause melting. If Janus, whose orbital mean motion is currently decreasing as Janus' orbit evolves outward due to resonant torques from Saturn's rings, were ever to become locked into a stable 2:1 orbital commensurability with Encedalus, the resulting angular momentum transfer could have sufficiently enhanced the eccentricity of Encedalus' orbit for the ensuing tidal heating to have melted Encedalus' interior. However, the predicted rapid time scale for ring evolution due to resonant torques from Saturn's inner moons remains a major problem.

Lissauer, J. J.

Estuarine Sediment Deposition during Wetland Restoration: A GIS and Remote Sensing Modeling Approach

Restoration of the industrial salt flats in the San Francisco Bay, California is an ongoing wetland rehabilitation project. Remote sensing maps of suspended sediment concentration, and other GIS predictor variables were used to model sediment deposition within these recently restored ponds. Suspended sediment concentrations were calibrated to reflectance values from Landsat TM 5 and ASTER using three statistical techniques -- linear regression, multivariate regression, and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to map suspended sediment concentrations. Multivariate and ANN regressions using ASTER proved to be the most accurate methods, yielding r2 values of 0.88 and 0.87, respectively. Predictor variables such as sediment grain size and tidal frequency were used in the Marsh Sedimentation (MARSED) model for predicting deposition rates for three years. MARSED results for a fully restored pond show a root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 66.8 mm (<1) between modeled and field observations. This model was further applied to a pond breached in November 2010 and indicated that the recently breached pond will reach equilibrium levels after 60 months of tidal inundation.

Newcomer, Michelle

TPSAS-NF1676L-13204-DND

Invasive perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) has spread rapidly throughout the western United States in the past fifteen years. Pepperweed outcompetes many native species for water and nutrients, disturbing sensitive ecosystems. The purpose of this study is to map the contemporary distribution of pepperweed throughout the wetland ecosystem of the restored South San Francisco Bay Salt Ponds and create a habitat suitability model to predict future spread. Pepperweed reflectance data were collected in-situ with the GER 1500 spectroradiometer along with presence and absence pepperweed GPS data points. A Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) classification algorithm (Method A) was used to distinguish pepperweed spectra and map its distribution on an EO-1 Hyperion image of the study area. Similarly, a supervised classification was run on an ASTER image of the study area. A GIS multivariate habitat suitability model was created to predict areas most susceptible to pepperweed colonization. Variables incorporated into the model were tidal extent, propensity for disturbance, pond salinity, proximity to levees and channels, and terrain curvature. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was also used to generate a suitability map (Method B) and investigate the statistical probability that each variable contributed to predict pepperweed spread. Results from the GAM revealed distance to channels, distance to disturbance factors, extreme pond salinity and curvature as statistically significant in determining the locations of suitable pepperweed habitats

Andrew Nguyen

Methane fluxes in tidal marshes of the conterminous United States

Abstract Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) with atmospheric concentrations that have nearly tripled since pre‐industrial times. Wetlands account for a large share of global CH 4 emissions, yet the magnitude and factors controlling CH 4 fluxes in tidal wetlands remain uncertain. We synthesized CH 4 flux data from 100 chamber and 9 eddy covariance (EC) sites across tidal marshes in the conterminous United States to assess controlling factors and improve predictions of CH 4 emissions. This effort included creating an open‐source database of chamber‐based GHG fluxes ( https://doi.org/10.25573/serc.14227085 ). Annual fluxes across chamber and EC sites averaged 26 ± 53 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 , with a median of 3.9 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 , and only 25% of sites exceeding 18 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 . The highest fluxes were observed at fresh‐oligohaline sites with daily maximum temperature normals (MATmax) above 25.6°C. These were followed by frequently inundated low and mid‐fresh‐oligohaline marshes with MATmax ≤25.6°C, and mesohaline sites with MATmax >19°C. Quantile regressions of paired chamber CH 4 flux and porewater biogeochemistry revealed that the 90th percentile of fluxes fell below 5 ± 3 nmol m −2 s −1 at sulfate concentrations >4.7 ± 0.6 mM, porewater salinity >21 ± 2 psu, or surface water salinity >15 ± 3 psu. Across sites, salinity was the dominant predictor of annual CH 4 fluxes, while within sites, temperature, gross primary productivity (GPP), and tidal height controlled variability at diel and seasonal scales. At the diel scale, GPP preceded temperature in importance for predicting CH 4 flux changes, while the opposite was observed at the seasonal scale. Water levels influenced the timing and pathway of diel CH 4 fluxes, with pulsed releases of stored CH 4 at low to rising tide. This study provides data and methods to improve tidal marsh CH 4 emission estimates, support blue carbon assessments, and refine national and global GHG inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Verification by Remote Sensing of an Oil Slick Movement Prediction Model

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT, aircraft, ships, and air-dropped current drogues were deployed to determine current circulation and to track oil slick movement on four different dates in Delaware Bay. Results were used to verify a predictive model for oil slick movement and dispersion. The model predicts the behavior of oil slicks given their size, location, tidal stage (current), weather (wind), and nature of crude. Both LANDSAT satellites provided valuable data on gross circulation patterns and convergent coastal fronts which by capturing oil slicks significantly influence their movement and dispersion.

Klemas, V.

Shoreline as a controlling factor in commercial shrimp production

The author has identified the following significant results. An ecological model was developed that relates marsh detritus export and shrimp production. It was based on the hypothesis that the shoreline is a controlling factor in the production of shrimp through regulation of detritus export from the marsh. LANDSAT data were used to develop measurement of shoreline length and areas of marsh having more than 5.0 kilometers of shoreline per square kilometer of area for the Louisiana coast, demonstrating the capability of remote sensing to provide important geographic information. These factors were combined with published tidal ranges and salinities to develop a mathematical model that predicted shrimp production for nine geographic units of the Louisiana coast, as indicated by the long term average commercial shrimp yield.

Faller, K. H.

Shoreline as a controlling factor in commercial shrimp production

An ecological model was developed that relates marsh detritus export and shrimp production, based on the hypothesis that the shoreline is a controlling factor in the production of shrimp through regulation of detritus export from the marsh. LANDSAT data were used to develop measurements of shoreline length and area of marsh having more than 5.0 km shoreline/sq km for the coast of Louisiana, demonstrating the capability of remote sensing to provide important geographic information. These factors were combined with published tidal ranges and salinities to develop a mathematical model that predicted shrimp production for nine geographic units of the Louisiana coast, as indicated by the long term average commercial shrimp yield. The mathematical model relating these parameters and the shrimp production is consistent with an energy flow model describing the interaction of detritus producing marshlands with shrimp nursery grounds and inshore shrimping areas. The analysis supports the basic hypothesis and further raises the possibility of applications to coastal zone management requirements.

Faller, K. H.

Secular changes of the M2 tide in the Gulf of Maine

Analyses of long time series of hourly tide-gauge data at four stations in the Gulf of Maine reveal that the amplitude of the M2 tide underwent a nearly linear secular increase throughout most of the twentieth century. In the early 1980s, however, the amplitude of M2 abruptly dropped. Sea level changes alone appear inadequate to explain either the long-term trend or the recent trend discontinuity. Tidal models that account for Holocene sea level rise do predict an amplification of M2, but much smaller than the currently observed trends. Nor do recent annual mean sea levels correlate with the recent trend discontinuity. Some unknown fraction of the open Atlantic may be similarly affected, since the M2 discontinuity, but not the long-term secular increase in the tide, is evident also at Halifax.

Ray, Richard D.

The influence of coastal fronts on the movement and dispersion of oil slicks

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT, aircraft, and boats were used successfully to study estuarine and coastal fronts or boundaries. Horizontal salinity gradients of 4% in one meter and convergence velocities of the order of 0.1 m/sec were observed. Visibility improved from one meter to two meters as certain boundaries were crossed. Fronts near the mouth of the bay are associated with the tidal exchange with shelf water. By capturing and holding oil slicks, these frontal systems also significantly influence the movement and dispersion of oil slicks in Delaware Bay. Recent oil slick tracking experiments conducted to verify a predictive oil dispersion and movement model have shown that during certain parts of the tidal cycle the oil slicks tend to line up along boundaries.

Klemas, V.

High-latitude oceanic variability associated with the 18.6-year nodal tide

Water column temperature variations which indicate that the upper ocean is responding to 18.6-yr tidal forcing are presented. An enhanced high-latitude response to this forcing is predicted by equilibrium tide theory, and it should be most evident at latitudes poleward of about 50 deg. Critical information on regional climate variations might be found in the subsurface waters of the North Pacific and possibly other high-latitude oceans. The 18.6-yr nodal tidal cycle must be considered in circulation models of the ocean and atmosphere that examine time scales of decades or longer. Because the temperature range associated with the cycle is 0.5-1 C, short-term climate and biological populations could be affected.

Royer, Thomas C.

Implementing Superresolution of Nonstationary Tides with Wavelets: An Introduction to CWT_Multi

Abstract Tides are often nonstationary due to nonastronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a trade-off between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short analysis windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a MATLAB code that 1) uses CWT linearity (via the “response coefficient method”) to implement superresolution, i.e., resolving tidal constituents beyond the Rayleigh criterion; 2) provides a Munk–Hasselmann constituent selection criterion appropriate for superresolution; and 3) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time scales of days, and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s), and reconstruction(s); confidence limits; and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K 1 , S 1 , and P 1 ) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power peaking (with a 24-h period, like S 1 ) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify the impacts of high flows and a salt barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to nonstationary data. Significance Statement Ocean tides, especially in coastal and estuarine systems, are often nonstationary, in the sense that the mean and standard deviation of tidal properties vary over time, usually in response to some nontidal process. We introduce here a MATLAB code, CWT_Multi, that uses wavelet transforms to resolve both tidal species and constituents on time scales from a few days to months. Our code accommodates multiple scalar time series and has typical tidal analysis features like constituent selection and inference, plus two forms of uncertainty analyses. It is flexible, allowing the user to adapt analysis properties to diverse datasets. CWT_Multi is applicable to many problems involving time-variable tides, including sea level rise, compound flooding, sediment transport, and wetland habitat analyses. Application to vector data is a straightforward extension, but further development of our uncertainty analysis is merited. Because nonstationary tidal analysis is rapidly advancing, we also define the features of a “well-formed” analysis code.

Lobo, Matthew

Dissipation Scaled Internal Wave Drag in a Global Heterogeneously Coupled Internal/External Mode Total Water Level Model

This study showcases a global, heterogeneously coupled total water level system wherein salinity and temperature outputs from a coarser-resolution (~12 km) ocean general circulation model are used to calculate density-driven terms within a global, higher-resolution (~2.5 km) depth-averaged total water level model. We demonstrate that the inclusion of baroclinic forcing in the barotropic model requires modification of the internal wave drag term to prevent excess degradation of tidal results compared to the barotropic model. By scaling the internal tide dissipation by an easy to calculate dissipation ratio, the resulting heterogeneously coupled model has complex root mean square errors (RMSE) of 2.27 cm in the deep ocean and 12.16 cm in shallow waters for the M 2 tidal constituent. While this represents a 10%–20% deterioration as compared to the barotropic model, the improvements in total water level prediction more than offset this degradation. Global median RMSE compared to observations of total water levels, 30-day sea levels, and non-tidal residuals improve by 1.86 (18.5%), 2.55 (42.5%), and 0.36 (5.3%) cm respectively. The drastic improvement in model performance highlights the importance of including density-driven effects within global hydrodynamic models and will help to improve the results of both hindcasts and forecasts in modeling extreme and nuisance flooding. With only an 11% increase in model run time compared to the fully barotropic total water level model, this approach paves the way for high resolution coastal water level and flood models to be used alongside climate models, improving operational forecasting of total water levels.

Blakely, Coleman Peter [University of Notre Dame,

The Shape of Long Outbursts in U Gem Type Dwarf Novae from AAVSO Data

We search the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) archives of the two best studied dwarf novae in an attempt to find light curves for long out bursts that are extremely well-characterized. The systems are U Gem and S8 Cyg. Our goal is to search for embedded precursors such as those that have been found recently in the high fidelity Kepler data for superoutbursts of some members of the 8U UMa subclass of dwarf novae. For the vast majority of AAV80 data, the combination of low data cadence and large errors associated with individual measurements precludes one from making any strong statement about the shape of the long outbursts. However, for a small number of outbursts, extensive long term monitoring with digital photometry yields high fidelity light curves. We report the finding of embedded precursors in two of three candidate long outbursts. This reinforces van Paradijs' finding that long outbursts in dwarf novae above the period gap and superoutbursts in systems below the period gap constitute a unified class. The thermal-tidal instability to account for superoutbursts in the SU UMa stars predicts embedded precursors only for short orbital period dwarf novae, therefore the presence of embedded precursors in long orbital period systems - U Gem and SS Cyg - argues for a more general mechanism to explain long outbursts.

Cannizzo, John K.

Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) for Marine Energy: Quantifying Collision Risk for Fish and Turbines Final Technical Report (Task 10)

A persistent environmental concern for the widespread deployment of tidal turbines is the potential for fish and marine mammals to collide with rotating blades (Copping et al. 2016, Copping and Hemery 2020). This is a consequence of well-documented bird and bat mortalities around wind turbines (Smallwood 2007, Thompson et al. 2017), as well as fish mortality at conventional hydropower dams (Pracheil et al. 2016) and tidal barrages (Dadswell and Rulifson 1994). However, unlike hydropower dams or barrages, tidal turbines do not involve structures that channel all flow through the turbines. Similarly, while functionally similar to wind turbines, tidal turbines often operate at lower relative velocities and, depending on the end-use application, may be significantly smaller than utility-scale wind turbines. Both of these factors reduce the likelihood and severity of collision, but the knowledge base on this topic remains limited.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

The applicability of satellite altimetry data to tidal models

The characteristics of satellite altimetry data are reviewed, and techniques for incorporating them into numerical tide models are discussed. The relationship between the geocentric tides observed by satellites and the ocean tides measured by gages or predicted by models is explored, and particular attention is given to the differences between deep-water, shelf, and estuarine tidal regimes. It is concluded that a separate tidal solution should always be performed before assimilating satellite data, including calculation of the tides along a single repeated ground track in the case of shelf and estuarine regions. The potential value of the altimetry to be provided by Topex/Poseidon (scheduled launch in 1991) is indicated.

Parke, Michael E.

Application of LANDSAT to the management of Delaware's marine and wetland resources

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT data were found to be the best source of synoptic information on the distribution of horizontal water mass discontinuities (fronts) at different portions of the tidal cycle. Distributions observed were used to improve an oil slick movement prediction model for the Delaware Bay. LANDSAT data were used to monitor the movement and dispersion of industrial acid waste material dumped over the continental shelf. A technique for assessing aqueous sediment concentration with limited ground truth was proposed.

Klemas, V.

A nested numerical tidal model of the southern New England bight

Efforts were focused on the development and application of a three-dimensional numerical model for predicting pollutant and sediment transport in estuarine and coastal environments. To successfully apply the pollutant and sediment transport model to Rhode Island coastal waters, it was determined that the flow field in this region had to be better described through the use of existing numerical circulation models. A nested, barotropic numerical tidal model was applied to the southern New England Bight (Long Island, Block Island, Rhode Island Sounds, Buzzards Bay, and the shelf south of Block Island). Forward time and centered spatial differences were employed with the bottom friction term evaluated at both time levels. Using existing tide records on the New England shelf, adequate information was available to specify the tide height boundary condition further out on the shelf. Preliminary results are within the accuracy of the National Ocean Survey tide table data.

Gordon, R. B.