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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

SST Forcing↗
NASA NTRS1997

Human Migration and Agricultural Expansion: An Impending Threat to the Maya Biosphere Reserve

Evidence is presented of the current threats to the Maya Biosphere Reserve in northern Guatemala as derived through time-series Landsat Thematic Mapper observations and analysis. Estimates of deforestation rates and trends are examined for different management units within the reserve and buffer zones. The satellite imagery was used to quantify and monitor rates, patterns, and trends of forest clearing during a time period corresponding to new road construction and significant human migration into the newly accessible forest region. Satellite imagery is appropriate technology in a vast and remote tropical region where aerial photography and extensive field-based methods are not cost-effective and current, timely data is essential for establishing conservation priorities.

Sader, Steven↗
NASA NTRS1990

Inverse methods for assessing ship-of-opportunity networks and estimating circulation and winds from tropical expendable bathythermograph data

Inverse methods for estimating the surface ciculation of the equatorial Pacific by combining a linear reduced-gravity shallow-water model with the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere ship-of-opportunity expendable bathythermograph (TOGA SOP XBT) observing program are examined. It is demonstrated that a simple linear model of the upper circulation of the equatorial Pacific can be successfully used as a weak constraint when smoothing the TOGA SOP XBT data. A circulation is sought as the weighted least squares fit to the dynamics and the data. The solution method is an expansion in representer functions, and the generalized inverse problem is thereby reduced from a functional problem to an algebraic problem for the coefficients of the representer. A specific inverse calculation using synthetic forcing and data is presented.

Bennett, Andrew F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reevaluating the Role of Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet provides an energy source for the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In this study, multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, CALIPSO, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to see if the proposed negative influences deserve all of the attention they have recently received. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the African jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is typically stronger in storms that intensify than those that weaken, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear is not a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. A comparison of the environments of strongly strengthening storms and of weakening storms shows no differences in SAL structure, indicating that the SAL has little influence on whether storms weaken or intensify. The large-scale flow at upper levels above the SAL was found to be most important, with the environment of strengthening storms having very little vertical wind shear and also favoring more expansive outflow from the storm. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence (sinking air motions). Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance dryness at low levels, but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid-to-upper-level dryness is not a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead a signature of subsidence. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not the major negative influence on hurricanes that recent studies have emphasized. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

SERVIR: From Space to Village. A Regional Monitoring and Visualization System For Environmental Management Using Satellite Applications For Sustainable Development

NASA is committed to providing technological support and expertise to regional and national organizations for earth science monitoring and analysis. This commitment is exemplified by NASA's long-term relationship with Central America. The focus of these efforts has primarily been to measure the impact of human development on the environment and to provide data for the management of human settlement and expansion in the region. Now, NASA is planning to extend and expand this capability to other regions of the world including Africa and the Caribbean. NASA began using satellite imagery over twenty-five years ago to locate important Maya archeological sites in Mesoamerica and to quantify the affect of deforestation on those sites. Continuing that mission, NASA has partnered with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the World Bank, the Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC) and the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop SERVIR (Sistema Regional de Visualizacion y Monitoreo), for the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor. SERVIR has become one of the most important aspects of NASA's geospatial efforts in Central America by establishing a common access portal for information that affects the lives, livelihood and future of everyone in the region. SERVIR, most commonly referred to as a regional visualization and monitoring system, is a scientific and technological platform that integrates satellite and other geospatial data sets to generate tools for improved decision-making capabilities. It has a collection of data and models that are easily accessible to earth science managers, first responders, NGO's (Non-Government Organizations) and a host of others. SERVIR is currently used to monitor and forecast ecological changes as well as provide information for decision support during severe events such as forest fires, red tides,and tropical storms. Additionally, SERVIR addresses the nine societal benefit areas of the Global Earth Observation System (GEOSS): disasters, ecosystems, biodiversity, weather, water, climate, health, agriculture and energy.

Sever, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2010

Effects of Irrigation on Global Climate During the 20th Century

Various studies have documented the effects of modern ]day irrigation on regional and global climate, but none, to date, have considered the time ]varying impact of steadily increasing irrigation rates on climate during the 20th century. We investigate the impacts of observed irrigation changes over this century with two ensemble simulations using an atmosphere general circulation model. Both ensembles are forced with transient climate forcings and observed sea surface temperatures from 1902 to 2000; one ensemble includes irrigation specified by a time ]varying data set of irrigation water withdrawals. Early in the century, irrigation is primarily localized over southern and eastern Asia, leading to significant cooling in boreal summer (June.August) over these regions. This cooling spreads and intensifies by century fs end, following the rapid expansion of irrigation over North America, Europe, and Asia. Irrigation also leads to boreal winter (December.February) warming over parts of North America and Asia in the latter part of the century, due to enhanced downward longwave fluxes from increased near ]surface humidity. Precipitation increases occur primarily downwind of the major irrigation areas, although precipitation in parts of India decreases due to a weaker summer monsoon. Irrigation begins to significantly reduce temperatures and temperature trends during boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropics beginning around 1950; significant increases in precipitation occur in these same latitude bands. These trends reveal the varying importance of irrigation ]climate interactions and suggest that future climate studies should account for irrigation, especially in regions with unsustainable irrigation resources.

Puma, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impacts of ENSO on the South American Summer Monsoon During 1997-1999

Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis, and CPC Merged Analysis Product (CMAP) rainfall, we have compared and contrasted the anomalies of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) during two extreme years of 1997/98 (EI Nino) and 1998/99 (La Nina). The results are assessed against a "canonical" ENSO response (CER) pattern for the SASM obtained from empirical mode decomposition based on a previous period (1980-1995). Overall, the SASM anomalies compare well with CER, but with some important differences. Anomalies occurring in the warm phase of the 1997-98 El Nino are very significant and robust, while those occurring in 1998/99 La Nina, appear to be reversed from 1997/98, but are relatively weak and less well-defined. The most pronounced signal in DJF 1997/98 is the development of drought conditions in northern Brazil, excessive rainfall over northern Peru and Ecuador, and over Uruguay and southern Brazil. The tropical rainfall anomalies are associated with the eastward shift of the Walker circulation, which is represented by pronounced low-level anomalous westerlies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and easterlies over northern Brazil. The easterlies are deflected sharply southeastward by the steep topography of the Andes, enhancing the low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the Andes near 15-20 S. The LLJ penetrates deep into the extratropics, yielding rainfall anomalies further poleward compared to CER. During DJF 1997/98, the eastward expansion of the warm tropospheric temperature over the Nino-3 region causes anomalous geopotential height to develop in the upper troposphere above the Altiplano, leading to a strengthened Bolivian High. An upper-tropospheric jet anomaly maximum is found over the subtropical continent near 30 S, due to increasing meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature, as well as teleconnection patterns linking the South Pacific and the South Atlantic. Consistent with the CER, the South Pacific High is weakened, and the South Atlantic High is strengthened in DJF 1997/98. However, rather than appearing as a coherent large scale signal over the entire Atlantic as in CER, the South Atlantic High anomalies in DJF 1997/98 split into two separate high pressure centers; one located south of the Amazon basin, and another over the southeastern South Atlantic. The former is induced as a Rossby-wave response by ENSO-Induced sinking motion over nor-them and eastern Brazil, and the latter may be associated with extratropical teleconnection signals. Anomalous convection observed over equatorial western Africa may also have contributed to the different circulation response over the Atlantic in DFJ 1997/99 compared to the CER. Comparison of the evolution of the SASM anomalies in 1997-99 with their corresponding annual cycles, suggest that the anomalies are phase-locked to and represent either enhancement or reduction of the annual variations. Results suggest that, from a system perspective the SASM was strengthened during the 1997/98 El Nino and weakened, albeit to a lesser extent, during the 1998/99 La Nina.

Lau, K.-M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but its future changes and related extremes remain unclear. Here, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that under a high-emission scenario, BSISO convection will shift eastward by ~3° (~300 km) in 2065–2099, driven by moisture profile changes associated with sea surface temperature warming over central-to-eastern Pacific. This eastward-shifted BSISO convection, along with a northward expansion of the westerly jet, strengthens the BSISO teleconnections that extend into broader areas of North America. These changes will increase the BSISO-related heatwave risks by 23% and wildfire risks by 3.5 times over northern North America compared to present-day conditions. The findings underscore the amplification of BSISO’s influence on extreme risks of extreme weather, emphasizing the need for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies for future climates.

BSISO teleconnection↗
NASA NTRS2021

Tracking the Rates and Mechanisms of Canopy Damage and Recovery Following Hurricane Maria Using Multitemporal Lidar Data

Hurricane Maria, a Category 4 storm, snapped and uprooted canopy trees, removed large branches, and defoliated vegetation across Puerto Rico. The magnitude of forest damages and the rates and mechanisms of forest recovery following Maria provide important benchmarks for understanding the ecology of extreme events. We used airborne Lidar data acquired before (2017) and after Maria (2018, 2020) to quantify landscape-scale changes in forest structure along a 439-ha elevational gradient (100–800 m) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Damages from Maria were widespread, with 73% of the study area losing ≥ 1 m in canopy height (mean = −7.1 m). Taller forests at lower elevations suffered more damage than shorter forests above 600 m. Yet only 13.5% of the study area had canopy heights ≤ 2 m in 2018, a typical threshold for forest gaps, highlighting the importance of damaged trees and advanced regeneration on post-storm forest structure. Heterogeneous patterns of regrowth and recruitment yielded shorter and more open forests by 2020. Nearly 45% of forests experienced initial height loss > 1 m (2017–2018) followed by rapid height gain > 1 m (2018–2020), whereas 21.6% of forests with initial height losses showed little or no height gain, and 17.8% of forests exhibited no height changes larger than ± 1 m in either period. Canopy layers < 10 m tall accounted for most increases in canopy height and fractional cover between 2018 and 2020, with gains split evenly between height growth and lateral crown expansion by surviving individuals. These findings benchmark rates of gap formation, crown expansion, and canopy closure following hurricane damage and highlight the diversity of ecosystem impacts from heterogeneous spatial patterns and vertical stratification of forest regrowth following a major disturbance event.

forest structure↗
NASA NTRS2021

Tracking the Rates and Mechanisms of Canopy Damage and Recovery Following Hurricane Maria Using Multitemporal Lidar Data

Hurricane Maria, a Category 4 storm, snapped and uprooted canopy trees, removed large branches, and defoliated vegetation across Puerto Rico. The magnitude of forest damages and the rates and mechanisms of forest recovery following Maria provide important benchmarks for understanding the ecology of extreme events. We used airborne Lidar data acquired before (2017) and after Maria (2018, 2020) to quantify landscape-scale changes in forest structure along a 439-ha elevational gradient (100–800 m) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Damages from Maria were widespread, with 73% of the study area losing ≥ 1 m in canopy height (mean = −7.1 m). Taller forests at lower elevations suffered more damage than shorter forests above 600 m. Yet only 13.5% of the study area had canopy heights ≤ 2 m in 2018, a typical threshold for forest gaps, highlighting the importance of damaged trees and advanced regeneration on post-storm forest structure. Heterogeneous patterns of regrowth and recruitment yielded shorter and more open forests by 2020. Nearly 45% of forests experienced initial height loss > 1 m (2017–2018) followed by rapid height gain > 1 m (2018–2020), whereas 21.6% of forests with initial height losses showed little or no height gain, and 17.8% of forests exhibited no height changes larger than ± 1 m in either period. Canopy layers < 10 m tall accounted for most increases in canopy height and fractional cover between 2018 and 2020, with gains split evenly between height growth and lateral crown expansion by surviving individuals. These findings benchmark rates of gap formation, crown expansion, and canopy closure following hurricane damage and highlight the diversity of ecosystem impacts from heterogeneous spatial patterns and vertical stratification of forest regrowth following a major disturbance event.

forest structure↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unitarity cuts of the worldsheet

We compute the imaginary parts of genus-one string scattering amplitudes. Following Witten’s i\varepsilon i ε prescription for the integration contour on the moduli space of worldsheets, we give a general algorithm for computing unitarity cuts of the annulus, Möbius strip, and torus topologies exactly in \alpha' α ′ . With the help of tropical analysis, we show how the intricate pattern of thresholds (normal and anomalous) opening up arises from the worldsheet computation. The result is a manifestly-convergent representation of the imaginary parts of amplitudes, which has the analytic form expected from Cutkosky rules in field theory, but bypasses the need for performing laborious sums over the intermediate states. We use this representation to study various physical aspects of string amplitudes, including their behavior in the (s,t) ( s , t ) plane, exponential suppression, decay widths of massive strings, total cross section, and low-energy expansions. We find that planar annulus amplitudes exhibit a version of low-spin dominance: at any finite energy, only a finite number of low partial-wave spins give an appreciable contribution to the imaginary part.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion

Abstract. Large-scale reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration schemes have gained global support as climate change mitigation strategies due to their significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential. However, there has been limited research into the unintended consequences of forestation from a biophysical perspective. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we apply a global forestation scenario, within a Paris Agreement-compatible warming scenario, to investigate the land surface and hydroclimate response. Compared to a control scenario where land use is fixed to present-day levels, the forestation scenario is up to 2 °C cooler at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10 % increase in evaporative cooling in forested areas. However, afforested areas where grassland or shrubland are replaced lead to a doubling of plant water demand in some tropical regions, causing significant decreases in soil moisture (∼ 5 % globally, 5 %–10 % regionally) and water availability (∼ 10 % globally, 10 %–15 % regionally) in regions with increased forest cover. While there are some increases in low cloud and seasonal precipitation over the expanded tropical forests, with enhanced negative cloud radiative forcing, the impacts on large-scale precipitation and atmospheric circulation are limited. This contrasts with the precipitation response to simulated large-scale deforestation found in previous studies. The forestation scenario demonstrates local cooling benefits without major disruption to global hydrodynamics beyond those already projected to result from climate change, in addition to the cooling associated with CDR. However, the water demands of extensive forestation, especially afforestation, have implications for its viability, given the uncertainty in future precipitation changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biophysical Impact of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Subgrid Temperature in CMIP6 Models

In this study, we investigate the air temperature response to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC; cropland expansion and deforestation) using subgrid land model output generated by a set of CMIP6 model simulations. Our study is motivated by the fact that ongoing land-use activities are occurring at local scales, typically significantly smaller than the resolvable scale of a grid cell in Earth system models. It aims to explore the potential for a multimodel approach to better characterize LULCC local climatic effects. On an annual scale, the CMIP6 models are in general agreement that croplands are warmer than primary and secondary land (psl; mainly forests, grasslands, and bare ground) in the tropics and cooler in the mid–high latitudes, except for one model. The transition from warming to cooling occurs at approximately 40°N. Although the surface heating potential, which combines albedo and latent heat flux effects, can explain reasonably well the zonal mean latitudinal subgrid temperature variations between crop and psl tiles in the historical simulations, it does not provide a good prediction on subgrid temperature for other land tile configurations (crop vs forest; grass vs forest) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) forcing scenarios. A subset of simulations with the CESM2 model reveals that latitudinal subgrid temperature variation is positively related to variation in net surface shortwave radiation and negatively related to variation in the surface energy redistribution factor, with a dominant role from the latter south of 30°N. We suggest that this emergent relationship can be used to benchmark the performance of land surface parameterizations and for prediction of local temperature response to LULCC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Detecting a Terrestrial Biosphere Sink for Carbon Dioxide: Interannual Ecosystem Modeling for the Mid-1980s

There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (delta (sup 13 C) convolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.

Potter, Christopher S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Global Fire Atlas of Individual Fire Size, Duration, Speed and Direction

Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition. Satellite observations provide global data on spatiotemporal patterns of biomass burning and evidence for the rapid changes in global fire activity in response to land management and climate. Satellite imagery also provides detailed information on the daily or sub-daily position of fires that can be used to understand the dynamics of individual fires. The Global Fire Atlas is a new global dataset that tracks the dynamics of individual fires to determine the timing and location of ignitions, fire size and duration, and daily expansion, fire line length, speed, and direction of spread. Here, we present the underlying methodology and Global Fire Atlas results for 2003–2016 derived from daily moderate-resolution (500 m) Collection 6 MCD64A1 burned-area data. The algorithm identified 13.3 million individual fires over the study period, and estimated fire perimeters were in good agreement with independent data for the continental United States. A small number of large fires dominated sparsely populated arid and boreal ecosystems, while burned area in agricultural and other human-dominated landscapes was driven by high ignition densities that resulted in numerous smaller fires. Long-duration fires in boreal regions and natural landscapes in the humid tropics suggest that fire season length exerts a strong control on fire size and total burned area in these areas. In arid ecosystems with low fuel densities, high fire spread rates resulted in large, short-duration fires that quickly consumed available fuels. Importantly, multiday fires contributed the majority of burned area in all biomass burning regions. A first analysis of the largest, longest and fastest fires that occurred around the world revealed coherent regional patterns of extreme fires driven by large-scale climate forcing. Global Fire Atlas data are publicly available through http://www.globalfiredata.org (last access: 9 August 2018) and https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1642, and individual fire information and summary data products provide new information for benchmarking fire models within ecosystem and Earth system models, understanding vegetation–fire feedbacks, improving global emissions estimates, and characterizing the changing role of fire in the Earth system.

global fire atlas↗
NASA NTRS2005

Growing Typhoon Influence on East Asia

Numerical model studies have suggested that the ongoing global warming will likely affect tropical cyclone activity. But so far little observed evidence has been detected to support the projected future changes. Using satellite-supported best-track data from 1965 to 2003, we show for the first time that over the past four decades the two prevailing typhoon tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) have shifted westward significantly; the typhoon activity over the South China Sea has considerably decreased; and East Asia has experienced increasing typhoon influence. Our trajectory model simulation indicates that the long-term shifts in the typhoon tracks result primarily from the changes in the mean translation velocity of typhoons or the large-scale steering flow, which is associated with the westward expansion and strengthening of the WNP subtropical high.

Wu, Liguang↗
NASA NTRS2004

High Spectral Resolution MODIS Algorithms for Ocean Chlorophyll in Case II Waters

The Case 2 chlorophyll a algorithm is based on a semi-analytical, bio-optical model of remote sensing reflectance, R(sub rs)(lambda), where R(sub rs)(lambda) is defined as the water-leaving radiance, L(sub w)(lambda), divided by the downwelling irradiance just above the sea surface, E(sub d)(lambda,0(+)). The R(sub rs)(lambda) model (Section 3) has two free variables, the absorption coefficient due to phytoplankton at 675 nm, a(sub phi)(675), and the absorption coefficient due to colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) or gelbstoff at 400 nm, a(sub g)(400). The R(rs) model has several parameters that are fixed or can be specified based on the region and season of the MODIS scene. These control the spectral shapes of the optical constituents of the model. R(sub rs)(lambda(sub i)) values from the MODIS data processing system are placed into the model, the model is inverted, and a(sub phi)(675), a(sub g)(400) (MOD24), and chlorophyll a (MOD21, Chlor_a_3) are computed. Algorithm development is initially focused on tropical, subtropical, and summer temperate environments, and the model is parameterized in Section 4 for three different bio-optical domains: (1) high ratios of photoprotective pigments to chlorophyll and low self-shading, which for brevity, we designate as 'unpackaged'; (2) low ratios and high self-shading, which we designate as 'packaged'; and (3) a transitional or global-average type. These domains can be identified from space by comparing sea-surface temperature to nitrogen-depletion temperatures for each domain (Section 5). Algorithm errors of more than 45% are reduced to errors of less than 30% with this approach, with the greatest effect occurring at the eastern and polar boundaries of the basins. Section 6 provides an expansion of bio-optical domains into high-latitude waters. The 'fully packaged' pigment domain is introduced in this section along with a revised strategy for implementing these variable packaging domains. Chlor_a_3 values derived semi-analytically and Chlor_a_2 values derived empirically using the O Reilly et al. OC3M algorithm from MODIS Terra radiances are compared to field chlorophyll-a concentrations in Sections 7 and 8.

Carder, Kendall L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Increases in the Western North Atlantic

The outer size of a tropical cyclone (TC) plays a pivotal role in its impact through a modulation of wind duration, rainfall extent and storm surge. While global and basin scale trends in TC size have been examined previously, whether there have been regional changes over time remains unclear. Here, using a suite of observations and reanalyses, we detect an increasing TC outer size over the western North Atlantic during 1979–2022. Over the western subtropical North Atlantic where the largest changes are found, the area-averaged increase in the radius of 17 ms -1 winds is about 7.5% over this period. Analysis of the large-scale environment reveals that the air-sea thermodynamic state has become more favorable for storm intensification, and thereby expansion, over that region. Further, numerical model simulations link changes in the environment with those in storm size, and suggest a combination of natural variability and external forcing in driving them.

Balaguru, Karthik [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗