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DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) Seismic Monitoring of CO 2 Injected for Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan (Volume II.C)

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. This report describes the monitoring study conducted to assess the effectiveness of DAS (Distributed Acoustic Sensing) -based VSP (Vertical Seismic Profiling) technology for delineating CO 2 injected into the Silurian-age pinnacle reefs in northern Michigan, the host rocks for the MRCSP Phase III demonstration project. The DAS VSP study was conducted in the Chester 16 reef, one of several reefs in Otsego County Michigan that is operated by Core Energy, LLC of Traverse City, Michigan. Time-lapse DAS VSP was implemented at the Chester 16 reef to attempt to detect approximately 85,000 tonnes of CO 2 injected into the A-1 Carbonate and Brown Niagaran Formations. A baseline survey was conducted in February 2017 prior to injecting CO 2 and a repeat survey was conducted in August 2018. During the interim period between the baseline and repeat surveys, CO 2 was injected into the Chester 16 reef via the 6-16 injection well without production (withdrawal) of fluids from the reef. A grid of 181 source positions consisting of 44 vibrator positions, plus 137 dynamite shot locations, was used to give approximately continuous spatial coverage of the injection zone (A-1 Carbonate and upper Brown Niagaran) in the area between the two wells.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rising temperatures intensify drought propagation and severity across the contiguous United States

Droughts can propagate from meteorological droughts (MD) into agricultural (AD) and hydrological droughts (HD). However, the mechanisms by which rising temperatures and changes in precipitation amount influence MD propagation, and how these dynamics vary across U.S., are not yet fully understood. This gap is critical given the U.S.’s diverse climates and land-use patterns, which lead to region-specific drought vulnerabilities and impacts, such as the 2012 AD in the Great Plains and the 2014 HD in the western U.S. Using a dynamical-statistical framework, we assess warming impacts on drought propagation. Results reveal that the Midwest and Southeast, key agricultural regions, show the largest increases in MD propagation to AD/HD, driven by rising temperatures and declining precipitation, though magnitudes vary regionally. In contrast, the Northeast shows reduced propagation due to increased year-round precipitation. Higher-intensity AD/HD events become disproportionately more likely, with rates varying by region and MD intensity.

Yan, Hongxiang [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2023

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Economic Analysis Between Bioenergy and Forage Types of Switchgrass for Sustainable Biofuel Feedstock Production: A Data Envelopment Analysis and Cost–Benefit Analysis Approach

ABSTRACT The capacity to produce switchgrass efficiently and cost‐effectively across diverse environments can be pivotal in achieving the short‐ and medium‐term Sustainable Aviation Fuel targets set by the U.S. Department of Energy. This study evaluated the economic performance of forage‐ and bioenergy‐type switchgrass cultivars and their response to N fertilization under diverse marginal environments across the US Midwest that included Illinois (IL), Iowa (IA), Nebraska (NE), and South Dakota (SD). Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was used to evaluate the efficiency of 23 Decision‐Making Units (DMUs)—cultivar types and N fertilization rate combinations—while a cost–benefit analysis calculated their profitability over 5 years. Results showed that two energy‐type cultivars—“Independence” and “Liberty”—were superior economically to the forage cultivars. Independence performed best with the highest profit margin when fertilized at 56 kg N ha −1 , particularly in the US hardiness zone 6a (Urbana, IL). Liberty exhibited the highest profit margins in hardiness zone 5b (Madrid, IA, and Ithaca, NE) at 56 kg N ha −1 and showed exceptional profitability with 28 kg N ha −1 in hardiness zone 6b (Brighton, IL). Switchgrass cultivar “Carthage” showed better efficiency score and profitability results in hardiness zone 4b (South Shore, SD) at 56 kg N ha −1 . The profit trends observed in current study sites may indicate broader patterns across similar US hardiness zones. This study provides valuable insights for decision‐makers to optimize input strategies for biomass production of bioenergy switchgrass to meet renewable energy demands.

Arshad, Muhammad Umer [Department of Crop Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wind and Solar Hybrid Power Plants for Energy Resilience

Wind-solar-storage hybrid power plants represent a significant and growing share of new proposed projects in the United States (U.S.). Their uptake is supported by increasing renewable energy market share, technical abilities for dispatch and control, and decreasing wind, solar, and battery storage costs. Simultaneously, generation and storage resources are increasingly used in distributed power systems. While concerns around the reliability of the aging, transforming U.S. electric grid are growing, diversifying energy resources through hybridization or spatial distribution provides an opportunity to enhance power system resilience compared to single-source generation. Understanding where to build hybrids for resilience value, rather than bulk power supply, has not been fully explored in previous studies. Therefore, in this study, we complete a national complementarity analysis to identify areas in the U.S. that are particularly suited for wind-solar hybrid power plant development. We show the importance of seasonal and diurnal patterns in assessing complementarity, and identify that regions in the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast are particularly suited for hybrid power plants. We demonstrate the resilience value of hybridization for a reference system based near Memphis, Tennessee, and show optimal sizing of wind, solar, and storage assets given 1.0 and 0.9 critical load factors. Results indicate that pairing wind and solar assets better meet constant load demand and reduce storage requirements compared to solar alone. These results enable future work integrating complementarity metrics in resilience frameworks and indicate a need for more finer resolution of local resource, demand, and hazard data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The health, climate, and equity benefits of freight truck electrification in the United States

Abstract Long-haul freight shipment in the United States relies on diesel trucks and constitutes ∼3% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and a significant share of local air pollution. Here, we compare the climate and air pollution-related health damages from electric versus diesel long-haul truck fleets. We use truck commodity flows to estimate tailpipe emissions from diesel trucks and regional grid emissions intensities to estimate charging emissions from electric trucks under various grid scenarios. We use a reduced complexity air quality model combined with valuation of air pollution-related premature deaths (using two hazard ratios (HRs)) and quantify the distributional health impacts in different scenarios. We find that annual health and climate costs of the current diesel fleet are $195–$249/capita compared to $174–$205/capita for a new diesel fleet, and $156–$177/capita for an electric fleet, depending on the HR. We find that freight electrification could avoid $6.2–8.5 billion in health and climate damages annually when compared to a fleet of new diesel vehicles (with even higher benefits when compared to the current diesel fleet). However, the Midwest and parts of the Gulf Coast would experience an increase in health damages due to vehicles charging using electricity from coal power plants. If old coal power plants (operating in 1980 or earlier) are replaced with zero-emission generation, electrification of all U.S. freight would result in $32.3–39.2 billion in avoided damages annually and health benefits throughout the U.S. Electrifying transport of consumer manufacturing goods (including electronics, transport equipment, and precision instruments) and food, beverage, and tobacco products would provide the largest absolute health and climate benefits, whereas mixed freight and manufacturing goods would result in the largest benefits per tonne-km. We find small variations in health damages across race and income. These results will help policymakers prioritize electrification and charging investment strategies for the freight transportation sub-sector.

Hennessy, Eleanor M. (ORCID:0000000294715765)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Recovery Opportunities in the Appalachian Basin

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) has incorporated the work of geologic research teams (Geoteams) in its regional characterization, project planning and carbon dioxide (CO2) injection implementation work since the partnership was established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2003. Over this 16-year period, the cohort of Geoteams has grown from five to ten states and has contributed to the characterization of geologic sequestration opportunities, refinement of reservoir and seal data, and supported injection efforts through both predictive and post-injection assessments. The regional characterization work conducted by the Geoteams during the MRCSP Phase III project period (2010 – 2019) focused on the following tasks: (1) refinement of geologic seals/reservoir systems; (2) assessment of Atlantic Coastal Plain and offshore opportunities; (3) expanded assessments of oil and gas fields, particularly as they relate to enhanced recovery opportunities; (4) regional support for implementation of carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) in the partnership area; and (5) communication and data sharing. The findings of this work are summarized in the final report entitled Final Report of Geologic Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Opportunities in the form of a state-by-state presentation for the MRCSP Region. In addition to the capstone deliverable mentioned above, the Geoteams have also prepared a series of topical reports to elaborate on specific geologic intervals and/or geographic areas of study completed during the Phase III project period. Specifically, these topical reports address: (1) the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent offshore; (2) Cambro-Ordovician reservoirs/seals in the region; (3) enhanced oil and gas recovery opportunities in the Appalachian Basin; and (4) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the Michigan Basin. The remainder of this topical report presents our findings relative to enhanced recovery opportunities in the Appalachian Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Recovery Opportunities in the Appalachian Basin

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) has incorporated the work of geologic research teams (Geoteams) in its regional characterization, project planning and carbon dioxide (CO2) injection implementation work since the partnership was established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2003. Over this 16-year period, the cohort of Geoteams has grown from five to ten states and has contributed to the characterization of geologic sequestration opportunities, refinement of reservoir and seal data, and supported injection efforts through both predictive and post-injection assessments. The Appalachian Basin Geoteam consists of geologists from the state geological surveys of Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Pennsylvania and West Virginia led the research related to enhanced recovery opportunities in oil and gas fields, while Kentucky led the work associated with enhanced gas recovery (EGR) opportunities in organic-rich shales. The Appalachian Basin Geoteam evaluated reservoirs amenable to CO2-EOR and EGR using a combination of data sources and technical approaches. The Geoteam characterized the subsurface geology of the area in stepwise fashion, starting with existing geologic maps and fields/pools data generated as part of previous MRCSP regional characterization research. With this data, the Geoteam correlated stratigraphy and generated cross sections to delineate the extent, depths and thicknesses of those formations that may serve as reservoirs for either miscible or immiscible enhanced recovery projects. In addition, the team prepared structure and isopach maps for prospective formations, as well as assessments of gross and net porosity of these units. Once prospective localities were identified, the Geoteam selected a short list of oil fields in each of the three states for assessment for case study preparation.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Structural Characterization of Potential Carbon Dioxide Reservoirs and Adjacent Strata within the Llandovery Silurian to Middle Devonian Strata of Ohio

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) has incorporated the work of geologic research teams (Geoteams) in its regional characterization, project planning and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection implementation work since the partnership was established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2003. Over this 16-year period, the cohort of Geoteams has grown from five to ten states and has contributed to the characterization of geologic sequestration opportunities, refinement of reservoir and seal data, and supported injection efforts through both predictive and post-injection assessments. This report details the work led by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological Survey to evaluate the structure of nine formations in the Appalachian Basin of Ohio to assess seal integrity and whether carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) migration pathways could pose a potential risk. As part of Phase II MRCSP work, the Pennsylvania Geological Survey led the characterization of the Llandovery Silurian (“middle Silurian”) to Middle Devonian regional geologic characterization CO 2 utilization and storage. This preliminary assessment included generalized, regional-scale mapping, as well as the development of relatively coarse structure and isochore maps of stratigraphic intervals of interest for the Appalachian Basin. Because this stratigraphic interval offers several enhanced oil recovery targets and secondary targets for CO 2 storage, the Ohio Geological Survey undertook efforts in Phase III to characterize the Ohio’s portion of the Appalachian Basin more precisely and to resolve inconsistencies within Ohio’s formation tops. This study refined the subsurface correlations of the Silurian-through-Devonian stratigraphic section in Ohio. Higher-resolution isochore mapping of the CO 2 storage reservoirs and seals provides greater detail of potential high-porosity zones and potential structural influence on the interval.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional Geologic Cross Sections for Potential Storage and Containment Zones in the MRCSP Region

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Enhanced Oil Recovery Using Carbon Dioxide in Michigan Basin Silurian Pinnacle Reefs

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) has incorporated the work of geologic research teams (Geoteams) in its regional characterization, project planning and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection implementation work since the partnership was established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2003. Over this 16-year period, the cohort of Geoteams has grown from five to ten states and has contributed to the characterization of geologic sequestration opportunities, refinement of reservoir and seal data, and supported injection efforts through both predictive and post-injection assessments. The Michigan team at Western Michigan University has provided technical analysis and support of the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the Northern Michigan Silurian Pinnacle reefs. With Core Energy, LLC as the industry partner, this project has assessed the potential for EOR in known fields in the Michigan Pinnacle reefs and the capacity for CO2 storage in the reef reservoirs as they are depleted and after reservoir abandonment. This project managed by Core Energy, LLC, involves the only commercial CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery floods within the MRCSP region. The Silurian pinnacle reef trend shows significant potential for CO 2 -EOR: this play is relatively new, with approximately 60% of the wells in the largest Niagaran fields still accessible. Most wells have modern logs and there are many cores, core analyses, pressure tests and produced water analyses available for study from these fields. These carbonate reservoirs in Michigan have produced sufficient oil to warrant evaluation for additional recovery efforts. The role of the Michigan team was to collect and analyze all relevant data about reservoir properties, including lithologic and depositional characteristics of the reservoir formations and porosity and fluid flow properties through different compartments in the reservoir. The team has also developed models that represent the geological and physical characteristics of the reservoir and seal system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data for Spatially Varying Costs of GHG Abatement with Alternative Cellulosic Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Cellulosic biomass-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) can be produced from various feedstocks. The breakeven price and carbon intensity of these feedstock-to-SAF pathways are likely to differ across feedstocks and across spatial locations due to differences in feedstock attributes, productivity, opportunity costs of land for feedstock production, soil carbon effects, and feedstock composition. We integrate feedstock to fuel supply chain economics and life-cycle carbon accounting using the same system boundary to quantify and compare the spatially varying greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities and costs of GHG abatement with SAFs derived from four feedstocks (switchgrass, miscanthus, energy sorghum, and corn stover) at 4 km resolution across the U.S. rainfed region. We show that the optimal feedstock for each location differs depending on whether the incentive is to lower breakeven price, carbon intensity, or cost of carbon abatement with biomass or to have high biomass production per unit land. The cost of abating GHG emissions with SAF ranges from $181 Mg−1 CO2e to more than $444 Mg−1 CO2e and is lowest with miscanthus in the Midwest, switchgrass in the south, and energy sorghum in a relatively small region in the Great Plains. While corn stover-based SAF has the lowest breakeven price per gallon, it has the highest cost of abatement due to its relatively high GHG intensity. Our findings imply that different types of policies, such as volumetric targets, tax credits, and low carbon fuel standards, will differ in the mix of feedstocks they incentivize and locations where they are produced in the U.S. rainfed region. Note: Column V in TableS7_DayCentSimulatedYield.csv should be labelled Corn Stover CoSo-NT-50% Max.

Geospatial↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatially Varying Costs of GHG Abatement with Alternative Cellulosic Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Cellulosic biomass-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) can be produced from various feedstocks. The breakeven price and carbon intensity of these feedstock-to-SAF pathways are likely to differ across feedstocks and across spatial locations due to differences in feedstock attributes, productivity, opportunity costs of land for feedstock production, soil carbon effects, and feedstock composition. We integrate feedstock to fuel supply chain economics and life-cycle carbon accounting using the same system boundary to quantify and compare the spatially varying greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities and costs of GHG abatement with SAFs derived from four feedstocks (switchgrass, miscanthus, energy sorghum, and corn stover) at 4 km resolution across the U.S. rainfed region. We show that the optimal feedstock for each location differs depending on whether the incentive is to lower breakeven price, carbon intensity, or cost of carbon abatement with biomass or to have high biomass production per unit land. The cost of abating GHG emissions with SAF ranges from $\$181$ Mg –1 CO 2 e to more than $\$444$ Mg –1 CO 2 e and is lowest with miscanthus in the Midwest, switchgrass in the south, and energy sorghum in a relatively small region in the Great Plains. While corn stover-based SAF has the lowest breakeven price per gallon, it has the highest cost of abatement due to its relatively high GHG intensity. Furthermore, our findings imply that different types of policies, such as volumetric targets, tax credits, and low carbon fuel standards, will differ in the mix of feedstocks they incentivize and locations where they are produced in the U.S. rainfed region.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Midwest Nuclear-based Net-Zero Carbon Steelmaking Demonstration

Globally, the iron and steel industry accounts for around a quarter of GHG emissions from the manufacturing sector , which is about 7% of the 33 gigatonnes (Gt) of global CO 2 emissions . Thus, globally, the steel industry is a 2-3 Gt CO 2 per year emissions challenge. The steel industry is important to the U.S. economy with output equal to $0.5 trillion and domestic production capacity is critical to national defense, infrastructure, energy production, and transportation. President Biden’s executive order on climate identifies actions and policies to put the Nation on a path to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, economy-wide, by no later than 2050. To achieve this, deep carbon reductions in the power, transportation, buildings and capital-intensive industrial manufacturing segments such as steel, cement and chemicals need to be addressed. In its recent “Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System” report , the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) stated that, “while technology exists to decarbonize all parts of the energy system, some sectors remain at precommercial or first-of-a-kind demonstration stages and require significant improvement in cost and performance to become commercially viable.” The NAS goes on to state that these hard to decarbonize sectors include “aviation, shipping, and industrial subsectors such as steel, cement, and chemicals manufacturing .” The Administration has proposed a timeline to decarbonize energy, transportation and then industry and manufacturing. From a life-cycle approach, decarbonizing steel and other large industrial inputs are necessary to decarbonize transformations in energy and transportation. DOE’s TRI-Lab Consortium’s Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program is a collaboration amongst DOE’s three applied energy laboratories: the National Energy Technology Laboratory; National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory. The IES approach looks at more tightly integrating low-carbon nuclear energy, renewable electricity, energy storage, load/demand balancing, and biomass (including plastics and other wastes) with one or more industrial processes that utilize heat and/or power from these clean and waste energy sources to produce a low-carbon commodity-scale product.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels at Nuclear Plants

A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impact of regional resources and technology availability on carbon dioxide removal potential in the United States

To achieve net zero carbon emissions by mid-century, the United States may need to rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to offset emissions from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors and/or shortfalls in near-term mitigation efforts. CDR can be delivered using many approaches with different requirements for land, water, geologic carbon storage capacity, energy, and other resources. The availability of these resources varies by region in the U.S. suggesting that CDR deployment will be uneven across the country. Using the global change analysis model for the United States (GCAM-USA), we modeled six classes of CDR and explored their potential using four scenarios: a scenario where all the CDR pathways are available (Full Portfolio), a scenario with restricted carbon capture and storage (Low CCS), a scenario where the availability of bio-based CDR options is limited (Low Bio), and a scenario with constraints on enhanced rock weathering (ERW) capabilities (Low ERW). We find that by employing a diverse set of CDR approaches, the U.S. could remove between 1 and 1.9 GtCO 2 /yr by midcentury. In the Full Portfolio scenario, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) predominates, delivering approximately 50% of CO 2 removal, with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage contributing 25%, and ERW delivering 11.5%. Texas and the agricultural Midwest lead in CDR deployment due to their abundant agricultural land and geological storage availability. In the Low CCS scenario, reliance on DACCS decreases, easing pressure on energy systems but increasing pressure on the land. In all cases CDR deployment was found to drive important impacts on energy, land, or materials supply chains (to supply ERW, for example) and these effects were generally more pronounced when fewer CDR technologies were available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Rules and Tools Crosswalk: A Compendium of Computational Tools to Support Geologic Carbon Storage Environmentally Protective UIC Class VI Permitting

This report identifies computational tools useful for addressing aspects of the dedicated carbon storage (Class VI) well permit application under the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program. The survey was conducted by researchers of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Research and Innovation Center in collaboration with representatives of the U.S. EPA, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and the four Regional Initiatives to Accelerate Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership of the Western United States (CUSP), Plains CO 2 Reduction Partnership Initiative to Accelerate Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Deployment (PCOR Partnership), Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI), and the Southeast Regional Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership (SECARB-USA). A total of 59 tools were identified through the elicitation for this report. It is intended to serve as a reference that can be used by geologic carbon storage stakeholders to identify computational tools that may be used to develop Class VI permit applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting Recent U.S. Heat Waves in a Warmer and More Humid Climate

The frequency and intensity of heat waves in the United States is projected to increase in the 21st century. We investigate dry and humid heat waves in a pair of high-resolution model simulations that constrain large-scale atmospheric circulation, to isolate the thermodynamic impacts on characteristics of present and future heat waves over the United States. The two kinds of heat waves show differences in mean intensity, amplitude, duration, and frequency over the Southeast, Northeast, and Midwest, while their characteristics are largely similar in the drier central and western United States. In a warmer climate, relative humidity is projected to decrease during dry heat waves, whereas it remains unchanged during humid heat waves. However, the overall increase in daily maximum temperature intensifies the heat stress during future humid and dry heat waves across all regions. With large-scale circulation constrained, these simulations emphasize the importance of thermodynamic drivers in determining future heat wave characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗