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Simulation Credibility: Advances in Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

Decision makers and other users of simulations need to know quantified simulation credibility to make simulation-based critical decisions and effectively use simulations, respectively. The credibility of a simulation is quantified by its accuracy in terms of uncertainty, and the responsibility of establishing credibility lies with the creator of the simulation. In this volume, we present some state-of-the-art philosophies, principles, and frameworks. The contributing authors involved in this publication have been dedicated to advancing simulation credibility. They detail and provide examples of key advances over the last 10 years in the processes used to quantify simulation credibility: verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. The philosophies and assessment methods presented here are anticipated to be useful to other technical communities conducting continuum physics-based simulations; for example, issues related to the establishment of simulation credibility in the discipline of propulsion are discussed. We envision that simulation creators will find this volume very useful to guide and assist them in quantitatively conveying the credibility of their simulations.

Simulation Credibility↗

Surface-Height Determination of Crevassed Glaciers-Mathematical Principles of an Autoadaptive Density-Dimension Algorithm and Validation Using ICESat-2 Simulator (SIMPL) Data

Glacial acceleration is a main source of uncertainty in sea-level-change assessment. Measurement of ice-surface heights with a spatial and temporal resolution that not only allows elevation-change calculation, but also captures ice-surface morphology and its changes is required to aid in investigations of the geophysical processes associated with glacial acceleration.The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System aboard NASAs future ICESat-2 Mission (launch 2017) will implement multibeam micropulse photon-counting lidar altimetry aimed at measuring ice-surface heights at 0.7-m along-track spacing. The instrument is designed to resolve spatial and temporal variability of rapidly changing glaciers and ice sheets and the Arctic sea ice. The new technology requires the development of a new mathematical algorithm for the retrieval of height information.We introduce the density-dimension algorithm (DDA) that utilizes the radial basis function to calculate a weighted density as a form of data aggregation in the photon cloud and considers density an additional dimension as an aid in auto-adaptive threshold determination. The auto-adaptive capability of the algorithm is necessary to separate returns from noise and signal photons under changing environmental conditions. The algorithm is evaluated using data collected with an ICESat-2 simulator instrument, the Slope Imaging Multi-polarization Photon-counting Lidar, over the heavily crevassed Giesecke Braer in Northwestern Greenland in summer 2015. Results demonstrate that ICESat-2 may be expected to provide ice-surface height measurements over crevassed glaciers and other complex ice surfaces. The DDA is generally applicable for the analysis of airborne and spaceborne micropulse photon-counting lidar data over complex and simple surfaces.

Herzfeld, Ute C.↗

Protonospheric columnar electron content determination. I - Analysis.

A combination of phase-path length difference and Faraday rotation angle data obtained from geostationary satellite transmissions is used to determine the integration constant necessary to convert phase-path length difference information into absolute values of total slant columnar electron content. The total content thus determined, which is the sum of the ionospheric and protonospheric contents, is measured with uncertainties about one order of magnitude smaller than the value of the protonospheric content. It is thus, in principle, possible to determine the latter by subtracting from the measurement the so-called 'Faraday content.' This idea, proposed by several authors in the past, is critically examined in the present paper. It is impossible to totally eliminate the ionospheric contribution to the measurements; however, it is shown that the degree of elimination depends on the type of distribution of the longitudinal component of the geomagnetic field along the path of observation. Satisfactory minimization of the ionospheric contribution can be accomplished only under certain geometries of observation.

Almeida, O. G.↗

Robust H-infinity control synthesis method and its application to benchmark problems

This paper presents a robust H-infinity control synthesis method for structured parameter uncertainty. The robust H-infinity control design methodology is also incorporated with the so-called internal model principle for persistent-disturbance rejection. A noncollocated control problem of flexible space structures subject to parameter variations is used to illustrate the design methodology. It is shown that the proposed design method invariably makes use of nonminimum-phase compensation and that it achieves the desired asymptotic disturbance rejection by having a disturbance rejection 'dipole'.

Wie, Bong↗

A computer architecture for intelligent machines

The Theory of Intelligent Machines proposes a hierarchical organization for the functions of an autonomous robot based on the Principle of Increasing Precision With Decreasing Intelligence. An analytic formulation of this theory using information-theoretic measures of uncertainty for each level of the intelligent machine has been developed in recent years. A computer architecture that implements the lower two levels of the intelligent machine is presented. The architecture supports an event-driven programming paradigm that is independent of the underlying computer architecture and operating system. Details of Execution Level controllers for motion and vision systems are addressed, as well as the Petri net transducer software used to implement Coordination Level functions. Extensions to UNIX and VxWorks operating systems which enable the development of a heterogeneous, distributed application are described. A case study illustrates how this computer architecture integrates real-time and higher-level control of manipulator and vision systems.

Lefebvre, D. R.↗

A computer architecture for intelligent machines

The theory of intelligent machines proposes a hierarchical organization for the functions of an autonomous robot based on the principle of increasing precision with decreasing intelligence. An analytic formulation of this theory using information-theoretic measures of uncertainty for each level of the intelligent machine has been developed. The authors present a computer architecture that implements the lower two levels of the intelligent machine. The architecture supports an event-driven programming paradigm that is independent of the underlying computer architecture and operating system. Execution-level controllers for motion and vision systems are briefly addressed, as well as the Petri net transducer software used to implement coordination-level functions. A case study illustrates how this computer architecture integrates real-time and higher-level control of manipulator and vision systems.

Lefebvre, D. R.↗

A Spaceborne Demonstration of P-Band Signals-of-Opportunity (SoOp) Reflectometry

Land-reflected signals from a geosynchronous communication satellite broadcasting in P-band (367.5 MHz) were captured in low Earth orbit (LEO) using a simple dipole antenna. A delay-Doppler map (DDM) was generated through autocorrelation. Estimates of the specular point delay were obtained from the lag of the second peak in the DDM with a bias of 239.4 m and a standard deviation of 44 m (12 m over a frozen lake) with respect to a predicted orbit model. Relative magnitudes of the first and second DDM peaks fell within the range of values predicted using dielectric models for the frozen ground and lake. Finally, retrievals of surface reflection coefficient were generated using a range of realistic values for the transmitter link budget G/T , and these also fell within the range of possible values for the antenna gain pattern. Given the lack of calibration and the large uncertainties in the receiver orbit and attitude, this agreement is sufficient to conclude a successful demonstration of the fundamental principle of single-antenna reflectometry in P-band. P-band reflectometry may offer a new approach to remote sensing of sub-canopy and root-zone soil moisture.

Delays↗

ASRDI oxygen technology survey. Volume 6: Flow measurement instrumentation

A summary is provided of information available on liquid and gaseous oxygen flowmetering including an evaluation of commercial meters. The instrument types, physical principles of measurement, and performance characteristics are described. Problems concerning flow measurements of less than plus or minus two percent uncertainty are reviewed. Recommendations concerning work on flow reference systems, the use of surrogate fluids, and standard tests for oxygen flow measurements are also presented.

Mann, D. B.↗

Discovery of a Doppler-limited CO line in the upper mesosphere of Venus - A new dynamical probe

The presence of CO in the upper atmosphere of Venus is a consequence of the photochemistry of CO2, the dominant atmospheric constituent. In December 1989 the J = 1-2 transition of CO was observed at 230 GHz. In addition to the broad absorption line first reported by Kakar et al. (1976), a narrow absorption feature at the center of the line due to upper mesospheric CO, where the temperature profile starts to exhibit diurnal variation with altitude. The narrow feature is approximately 600 kHz wide and is predominantly Doppler-broadened. The Doppler core provides a new means of measuring wind velocities at these altitudes in the atmosphere of Venus. Detection of small Doppler shifts in the line core can in principle be used to measure winds with an accuracy of 10 m/s. Results are presently limited by the 17 kHz uncertainty in the measured rest frequency, corresponding to a systematic error in wind velocity up to 22 m/s, and the absence of laboratory measurements of the pressure shift in CO by CO2.

Buhl, David↗

Transition probabilities for the UV0.01 multiplet in N III

We report on large-scale ab initio multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock calculations for the UV0.01 multiplet, 2s(sup 2)2p(sup 2)P(sub J) - 2s2p(sup 2 4)P(sub J prime), in N III. The resulting transition probabilities agree very well with recent semiempirical calculations, and the lifetimes for two of the three upper levels agree with experiments. The deviation for the third level is discussed. Comparisons made with the highest quality IUE echelle spectra available -- those of RR Tel and V1016 Cyg (both photoionized sources with electron densities below 10(exp 8)/cu cm) -- show that computed branching ratios of lines sharing a common upper level are in agreement with observations to within uncertainties of +/- 10%. High-quality solar limb data or stellar data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) could, in principle, be used to determine whether the theoretical or measured lifetimes for the discrepant level are in error. Unfortunately, stellar data for high-density plasmas (N(sub e) greater than 10(exp 11)/cu cm are needed) do not yet exist, and existing solar data lack the photometric precision to address this problem.

Brage, Tomas↗

Robust Design Under Uncertainty of Hypersonic Inlets

The objective of this work is to optimize scramjet inlet designs under uncertainty at multiple fidelity levels. Optimizations are performed for both deterministic and stochastic conditions. For stochastic conditions, robust design is used to minimize the variance in system performance in addition to optimizing mean system performance. Uncertainty quantification is performed using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. Comparisons are made between low-fidelity analysis and high-fidelity analysis, as well as deterministic optimization and robust optimization. Results indicate that the general design trend of previous inlet optimization techniques is recovered for the external compression portion of an inlet. For the internal compression portion of an inlet, when viscous effects become more significant and boundary layer separation becomes more likely, the optimal trend departs from previous results. Multifidelity uncertainty quantification methods are found to substantially reduce the computation time of robust design while obtaining results that nearly match those of high-fidelity analysis. Robust optimization is found to decrease the standard deviation of throat Mach number by up to 40% compared to deterministic optimization. Changes in the design variables and total turning that lead to robust scramjet inlets are identified and linked back to fundamental physical principles through the theta-beta-Mach function.

Hypersonic↗

Analysis of simultaneous aerosol and ocean glint retrieval using multi-angle observations

Since early 2000, NASA's Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument has been performing remote sensing retrievals of aerosol optical properties from the polar-orbiting Terra spacecraft. A noteworthy aspect of MISR observations over the ocean is that, for much of the Earth, some of the multi-angle views have contributions from solar reflection by the ocean surface (glint, or glitter), while others do not. Aerosol retrieval algorithms often discard these glint-influenced observations because they can overwhelm the signal and are difficult to predict without knowledge of the (wind-speed-driven) ocean surface roughness. However, theoretical studies have shown that multi-angle observations of a location at geometries with and without reflected sun glint can be a rich source of information, sufficient to support simultaneous retrieval of both the aerosol state and the wind speed at the ocean surface. We are in the early stages of creating such an algorithm. In this paper, we describe our assessment of the appropriate level of parameterization for simultaneous aerosol and ocean surface property retrievals using sun glint. For this purpose, we use generalized nonlinear retrieval analysis (GENRA), an information content assessment (ICA) technique employing Bayesian inference, and simulations from the Ahmad–Fraser iterative radiative transfer code. We find that four parameters are suitable: aerosol optical depth (τ), particle size distribution (expressed as the fine mode fraction f of small particles in a bimodal size distribution), surface wind speed (w), and relative humidity (r, to define the aerosol water content and complex refractive index). None of these parameters define ocean optical properties, as we found that the aerosol state could be retrieved with the nine MISR near-infrared views alone, where the ocean body is strongly absorbing in the open ocean. We also found that retrieval capability varies with observation geometry and that as τ increases so does the ability to determine aerosol intensive optical properties (r and f, while it decreases for w). Increases in w decrease the ability to determine the true value of that parameter but have minimal impact on retrieval of aerosol properties. We explored the benefit of excluding the two most extreme MISR view angles for which radiative transfer with the plane-parallel approximation is less certain, but we found no advantage in doing so. Finally, the impact of treating wind speed as a scalar parameter, rather than as a two-parameter directional wind, was tested. While the simpler scalar model does contribute to overall aerosol uncertainty, it is not sufficiently large to justify the addition of another dimension to parameter space. An algorithm designed upon these principles is in development. It will be used to perform an atmospheric correction with MISR for coincident ocean color (OC) observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, also on the NASA Terra spacecraft. Unlike MISR, MODIS is a single-view-angle instrument, but it has a more complete set of spectral channels ideal for determination of optical ocean properties. The atmospheric correction of MODIS OC data can therefore benefit from MISR aerosol retrievals. Furthermore, higher-spatial-resolution data from coincident MISR observations may also improve glint screening.

Kirk Knobelspiesse↗

A Boltzmann machine for the organization of intelligent machines

A three-tier structure consisting of organization, coordination, and execution levels forms the architecture of an intelligent machine using the principle of increasing precision with decreasing intelligence from a hierarchically intelligent control. This system has been formulated as a probabilistic model, where uncertainty and imprecision can be expressed in terms of entropies. The optimal strategy for decision planning and task execution can be found by minimizing the total entropy in the system. The focus is on the design of the organization level as a Boltzmann machine. Since this level is responsible for planning the actions of the machine, the Boltzmann machine is reformulated to use entropy as the cost function to be minimized. Simulated annealing, expanding subinterval random search, and the genetic algorithm are presented as search techniques to efficiently find the desired action sequence and illustrated with numerical examples.

Moed, Michael C.↗

First Order Reliability Application and Verification Methods for Semistatic Structures

Escalating risks of aerostructures stimulated by increasing size, complexity, and cost should no longer be ignored by conventional deterministic safety design methods. The deterministic pass-fail concept is incompatible with probability and risk assessments, its stress audits are shown to be arbitrary and incomplete, and it compromises high strength materials performance. A reliability method is proposed which combines first order reliability principles with deterministic design variables and conventional test technique to surmount current deterministic stress design and audit deficiencies. Accumulative and propagation design uncertainty errors are defined and appropriately implemented into the classical safety index expression. The application is reduced to solving for a factor that satisfies the specified reliability and compensates for uncertainty errors, and then using this factor as, and instead of, the conventional safety factor in stress analyses. The resulting method is consistent with current analytical skills and verification practices, the culture of most designers, and with the pace of semistatic structural designs.

Verderaime, Vincent↗

The Problem of Size in Robust Design

To facilitate the effective solution of multidisciplinary, multiobjective complex design problems, a departure from the traditional parametric design analysis and single objective optimization approaches is necessary in the preliminary stages of design. A necessary tradeoff becomes one of efficiency vs. accuracy as approximate models are sought to allow fast analysis and effective exploration of a preliminary design space. In this paper we apply a general robust design approach for efficient and comprehensive preliminary design to a large complex system: a high speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft. Specifically, we investigate the HSCT wing configuration design, incorporating life cycle economic uncertainties to identify economically robust solutions. The approach is built on the foundation of statistical experimentation and modeling techniques and robust design principles, and is specialized through incorporation of the compromise Decision Support Problem for multiobjective design. For large problems however, as in the HSCT example, this robust design approach developed for efficient and comprehensive design breaks down with the problem of size - combinatorial explosion in experimentation and model building with number of variables -and both efficiency and accuracy are sacrificed. Our focus in this paper is on identifying and discussing the implications and open issues associated with the problem of size for the preliminary design of large complex systems.

Koch, Patrick N.↗

Status of Duct Liner Technology for Application to Aircraft Engine Nacelles

Grazing flows and high acoustic intensities impose unusual design requirements on acoustic liner treatments used in aircraft engine nacelles. Increased sound absorption efficiency (requiring increased accuracy of liner impedance specification) is particularly critical in the face of ever decreasing nacelle wall area available for liner treatments in modern, high-bypass ratio engines. This paper reviews the strategy developed at Langley Research Center for achieving a robust measurement technology that is crucial for validating impedance models for aircraft liners. Specifically, the paper describes the current status of computational and data acquisition technologies for reducing impedance in a flow duct. Comparisons of reduced impedances for a "validation liner" using 1980's and 2000's measurement technology are consistent, but show significant deviations (up to 0.5 c exclusive of liner anti-resonance region) from a first principles impedance prediction model as grazing flow centerline Mach numbers increase up to 0.5. The deviations, in part, are believed related to uncertainty in the choice of grazing flow parameters (e.g. cross-section averaged, core-flow averaged, or centerline Mach number?). Also, there may be an issue with incorporating the impedance discontinuities corresponding to the hard wall to liner interface (i.e. leading and trailing edge of test liner) within the discretized finite element model.

Parrott, Tony L.↗

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗