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At least 91 records · Page 5

How Does Mediterranean Basin's Atmosphere Become Weak Moisture Source During Negative Phase of NAO: Use of AIRS, AMSR, TOVS, & TRMM Satellite Datasets Over Last Two NAO Cycles to Examine Governing Controls on E-P

The Mediterranean Sea is a noted 'concentration" basin in that it almost continuously exhibits positive evaporation minus precipitation (E - P ) properties -- throughout the four seasons and from one year to the next. Nonetheless, according to the ECMWF Era-40 48-year (1958-2005) climate reanalysis dataset, for various phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the pressure gradient between Portugal and Iceland becomes either very relaxed (large negative NAO-Index) or in transition (small positive or negative NAO-Index), the atmospheric moisture source properties of the basin become weak, at times even reversed for several months (i.e., negative E - P). This behavior poses numerous questions concerning how and why these events occur. Moreover, it begs the question of what it would take for the basin to reach its tipping point in which P would exceed E throughout the rainy season (some six months) on an annually persistent basis -- and the sea would possibly transform to a recurring "dilution" basin. This talk investigates these questions by: (1) establishing over a period from 1979 to present, based on detailed analyses of satellite retrieval products from a combination of NASA-AQUA, NOAA-LEO, NASA/JAXA Scatterometer, and NASA-TRMM platforms, plus additional specialized satellite data products and ancillary meteorological datasets, the actual observation-based behavior of E - P, (2) diagnosing the salient physical and meteorological mechanisms that lead to the weaker E - P events during the analysis period, partly based on analyzing surface and upper air data at discrete stations in the western and eastern Mediterranean -- while at the same time evaluating the quality of the ERA-40 data over this same time period, (3) conducting GCM and high-resolution regional modeling experiments to determine if perturbed but realistic meteorological background conditions could maintain Mediterranean as a "dilution" basin through the October to March rainy season on annually recurring basis, and (4) investigating how such conditions might modify important internal and external climatic processes known to be closely related to the dynamical, thermal, and hydrological properties of the basin (e.g., drought frequency over Iberian peninsula, rainfall accumulation within Sahel, alteration of Levantine branch of east-west aligned open thermohaline cell, and modification of warm-salty intermediate flow through Gibraltar straight into North Atlantic).

Smith, Eric A.↗

Measured Sonic Boom Signatures Above and Below the XB-70 Airplane Flying at Mach 1.5 and 37,000 Feet

During the 1966-67 Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) National Sonic Boom Evaluation Program, a series of in-flight flow-field measurements were made above and below the USAF XB-70 using an instrumented NASA F-104 aircraft with a specially designed nose probe. These were accomplished in the three XB-70 flights at about Mach 1.5 at about 37,000 ft. and gross weights of about 350,000 lbs. Six supersonic passes with the F-104 probe aircraft were made through the XB-70 shock flow-field; one above and five below the XB-70. Separation distances ranged from about 3000 ft. above and 7000 ft. to the side of the XB-70 and about 2000 ft. and 5000 ft. below the XB-70. Complex near-field "sawtooth-type" signatures were observed in all cases. At ground level, the XB-70 shock waves had not coalesced into the two-shock classical sonic boom N-wave signature, but contained three shocks. Included in this report is a description of the generating and probe airplanes, the in-flight and ground pressure measuring instrumentation, the flight test procedure and aircraft positioning, surface and upper air weather observations, and the six in-flight pressure signatures from the three flights.

Maglieri, Domenic J.↗

30 WS North Base Wind Study

The 30 Weather Squadron (30 WS) is concerned about strong winds observed at their northern towers without advance warning. They state that terrain influences along the extreme northern fringes of Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) make it difficult for forecasters to issue timely and accurate high wind warnings for northeasterly wind events. These events tend to occur during the winter or early spring when they are under the influence of the Great Basin high pressure weather regime. The Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) have seen these rapid wind increases in the current northern Towers 60, 70 and 71 in excess of their 35 kt operational warning threshold. For this task, the 30 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze data from days when these towers reported winds in excess of 35 kt and determine if there were any precursors in the observations that would allow the LWOs to better forecast and warn their operational customers for these wind events. The 30 WS provided wind tower data for the cool season (October - March) from the period January 2004-March 20 IO. The AMU decoded and evaluated the wind tower data for 66 days identified by the 30 WS as having high-wind events. Out of the 66 event days, only 30 had wind speed observations of > or =35 kt from at least one of the three northern towers. The AMU analyzed surface and upper air charts to determine the synoptic conditions for each event day along with tower peak wind speed and direction time series and wind rose charts for all 30 event days. The analysis revealed a trend on all event days in which the tower winds shifted to the northeast for a period of time before the first recorded > or =35 kt wind speed. The time periods for the 30 event days ranged from 20 minutes to several hours, with a median value of 110 minutes. This trend, if monitored, could give the 30 WS forecasters a precursor to assist in issuing an operational warning before a high wind event occurs. The AMU recommends developing a high-wind alert capability for VAFB using a local mesoscale model to forecast these wind events. The model should incorporate all of the VAFB local data sets and have a forecast capability of between 2 to 24 hours. Such a model would allow the meteorologists at VAFB to alert the operational customers of high wind events in a timely manner so protective action could be taken.

Wheeler, Mark↗

Observational study of the South American low-level jet during the SALLJEX

The South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) east of the Andes is a narrow maximum northerly wind present just above the boundary layer. It is an important component of the tropical-extratropical exchange of heat and moisture in South America and favors deep moist convection in Southeastern South America (SESA). In the present study, the SALLJ characteristics during the 2002-2003 summer season are investigated using upper-air measurements collected during the SALLJ Experiment (SALLJEX). At most stations, the highest wind speed was observed below 3000 m between 06 and 12 UTC, mainly in association with a maximization of the northerly component of the wind while the zonal component reached its minimum. Here, an increase in the maximum wind speed from 10°S to Santa Cruz de la Sierra’s latitude and from there a weakening southward was found throughout the SALLJEX network. Additionally, SALLJEX observations allowed to locate SALLJ core purely from observations in a region just east of the Andes in agreement with previous studies. A new localized kinematic classification was developed and applied in this study to analyze the relationship between the SALLJ intensity and the thermodynamic properties of the lower layers of the atmosphere. Weak, moderate, and strong SALLJ categories were defined with a local threshold of the northerly wind speed maximum at each station. The strongest SALLJs were frequently observed at nighttime, while weaker SALLJs were likely to occur at any time of the day. A stabilization of the nocturnal boundary layer was observed between weak and moderate cases whereas a destabilization between moderate and strong cases were found near the time of the wind speed maximum (06 UTC) at Santiago del Estero and Resistencia stations. A deepening of the convective boundary layer and an increase of its mean temperature between weak and strong category during the previous afternoon to nocturnal SALLJs, reveal a possible contribution to the mechanisms that generate the maximum wind speed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale evaluation of AMPS using AWARE radar observations of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica

Surface, upper-air, and radar observations are used to assess the performance of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in simulating the mesoscale aspects of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica that spanned January 16–20, 2016. The observations, collected during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), provide a unique dataset for evaluating AMPS, especially the radar observations that facilitate a three-dimensional depiction of winds and precipitation. Comparisons of AMPS forecast data with surface meteorology, balloon-sounding, and profiling radar observations at and above sites near McMurdo Station reveal a mixture of similarities and differences. A generally southerly flow is evident at low levels in both the AMPS simulations and observed Doppler radial velocities. AMPS winds are comparable to those observed at the surface and aloft in terms of magnitude, direction, and timing but the strongest simulated southerly flow is displaced eastward relative to the observations. AMPS-simulated reflectivity over the broader Ross Island region is more limited in areal extent and smaller in magnitude than observed by a scanning Doppler radar. Three episodes of surface precipitation are observed near McMurdo Station over the five-day event with peak rates of ~3 mm h -1 and a total accumulation of ~22 mm. However, AMPS produces no surface precipitation at that location over the five-day event due to a low-level dry bias in the forecasts. Herein, the results show the first observationally based three-dimensional understanding of meteorology in the Ross Island region.

AMPS↗

Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning

Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Severe Weather Prediction With Microwave All‐Sky Radiance Assimilation: The 10 August 2020 Midwest Derecho

Abstract In this study, we assimilated microwave (MW) all‐sky radiances from low‐Earth‐orbiting satellites and examined their impact on the analyses and forecasts of weather hazards associated with the 10 August 2020 Midwest derecho. Compared with the baseline that assimilated conventional surface and upper‐air observations and infrared (IR) all‐sky radiances from geostationary satellites, the addition of MW all‐sky radiances improved the analyzed and forecasted convection‐stratiform structures of the derecho. Results show that MW all‐sky radiances provided additional information, compared with IR radiances, on hydrometeors within the storm, leading to improved forecasts out to 2 hr with quantitatively more accurate surface gusts. This is the first study to assimilate MW all‐sky radiances for a severe weather event using a convection‐permitting numerical weather prediction model (our model resembles NOAA's High‐Resolution Rapid Refresh), and the results suggest promising avenues for improving severe weather forecasts worldwide in the future.

Zhang, Yunji↗

National Weather Service Radiosonde Evaluation Field Campaign Report

The purpose of the campaign was to perform a full evaluation of participating vendor’s radiosondes to qualify for potential use in the National Weather Service (NWS) upper air field operations. The NWS has specific requirements that vendors systems were evaluated against to determine if the vendor’s radiosonde performs within specifications. For this evaluation, the NWS was pursuing commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) ground/tracking systems in the 403 MHz frequency band over the previously used Telemetry Receiving System (TRS) and house-built software using the 1680 MHz frequency. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory served as the warm and dry test region. The radiosondes were assessed for precision of the radiosonde (unit under test versus itself) and accuracy of the radiosonde’s humidity measurements (unit under test versus a cryogenic frostpoint hygrometer [CFH]).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GNSS Installation at the ARM North Slope of Alaska Atmospheric Observatory Field Campaign Report

GRUAN, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network, is an international reference observing network of sites measuring essential climate variables above Earth's surface, designed to fill an important gap in the current global observing system. GRUAN’s objectives are to (1) provide long-term, high-quality climate records, (2) constrain and calibrate data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems (including satellites and current radiosonde networks) and (3) fully characterize the properties of the atmospheric column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GNSS Installation at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Observatory Field Campaign Report

GRUAN, the GCOS Reference Upper Air Network, is an international reference observing network of sites measuring essential climate variables above Earth's surface, designed to fill an important gap in the current global observing system. GRUAN’s objectives are to (1) provide long-term, high-quality climate records, (2) constrain and calibrate data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems (including satellites and current radiosonde networks), and (3) fully characterize the properties of the atmospheric column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GNSS Installation at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Atmospheric Observatory Field Campaign Report

GRUAN, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network, is an international reference observing network of sites measuring essential climate variables above Earth's surface, designed to fill an important gap in the current global observing system. GRUAN’s objectives are to (1) provide long-term, high-quality climate records, (2) constrain and calibrate data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems (including satellites and current radiosonde networks), and (3) fully characterize the properties of the atmospheric column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of secondary organic aerosol simulation bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2.1)

Organic aerosol (OA) has been considered as one of the most important uncertainties in climate modeling due to the complexity in presenting its chemical production and depletion mechanisms. To better understand the capability of climate models and probe into the associated uncertainties in simulating OA, we evaluate the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1) configured with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry representation (CAM6-Chem) through a long-term simulation (1988–2019) with observations collected from multiple datasets in the United States. We find that CESM generally reproduces the interannual variation and seasonal cycle of OA mass concentration at surface layer with a correlation of 0.40 compared to ground observations and systematically overestimates (69%) in summer and underestimates (-19%) in winter. Through a series of sensitivity simulations, we reveal that modeling bias is primarily related to the dominant fraction of monoterpene-formed secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and a strong positive correlation of 0.67 is found between monoterpene emission and modeling bias in the eastern US during summer. In terms of vertical profile, the model prominently underestimates OA and monoterpene concentrations by 37%–99% and 82%–99%, respectively, in the upper air (>500 m) as validated against aircraft observations. Our study suggests that the current volatility basis set (VBS) scheme applied in CESM might be parameterized with monoterpene SOA yields that are too high, which subsequently results in strong SOA production near the emission source area. We also find that the model has difficulty in reproducing the decreasing trend of surface OA in the southeastern US probably because of employing pure gas VBS to represent isoprene SOA which is in reality mainly formed through multiphase chemistry; thus, the influence of aerosol acidity and sulfate particle change on isoprene SOA formation has not been fully considered in the model. This study reveals the urgent need to improve the SOA modeling in climate models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Density accuracy from the accelerometer inflatable falling sphere.

Computed error bars are added to the upper-air density measurements of January 31, 1969, at Wallops Island, Virginia, reported by Faucher and Morrissey. A triaxial accelerometer-instrumented inflated falling sphere was used for the measurements. Bases for the computation are presented. The conclusions of Faucher and Morrissey are substantiated to about 100 km if comparable uncertainty in each of the five soundings reported is assumed.

Staffanson, F. L.↗

Meteorological utility of high resolution multispectral data

There are no author-identified significant results in this report. This investigation is directed towards determining the meteorological information content of ERTS-1 MSS bulk data at 0.6 - 0.7 microns as a function of resolution. To accomplish this, the resolution of the MSS data is degraded incrementally to 0.5 min. Subsequent analysis of the processed photographs in conjunction with surface and upper air observations will then determine to what extent significant meteorological information has been lost in the degradation process.

Danko, J. M.↗

History of San Marco

A brief history is reported of the first San Marco project, a joint program of the United States and Italy. The Project was a three phase effort to investigate upper air density and associated ionosphere phenomena. The initial phase included the design and development of the spacecraft, the experiments, the launch complex, and a series of suborbital flights, from Wallops Island. The second phase, consisting of designing, fabricating, and testing a spacecraft for the first orbital mission, culminated in an orbital launch also from Wallops Island. The third phase consisted of further refining the experiments and spacecraft instrumentation and of establishing a full-bore scout complex in Kenya. The launch of San Marco B, in April 1967, from this complex into an equatorial orbit, concluded the initial San Marco effort.

Caporale, A. J.↗

Remote detection of ocean features in the Lesser Antilles using ERTS-1 data

The author has identified the following significant results. Photographic data received from the ERTS-1 satellite over the Lesser Antilles Islands shows distinct ocean features on the leeward side of each island. Attempts to relate these features to ocean eddy formations with the aid of ground truth data proved unsuccessful. However, analysis of surface and upper air wind data correlate extremely well with the size, shape, and downwind extent of the ocean features. Studies to date indicate strongly that these features result from horizontal differences in sea surface roughness due to the wind shadow effect of the islands. The results suggest that horizontal variations in the reflectance of the sea surface will make remote sensing of the ocean mixed layer more difficult than previously anticipated. The surface reflection seems to be large enough to mask the smaller variations in backscattered energy from the mixed layer. Efforts to limit the effect of surface reflectance by photographic differencing of two MSS bands were unsuccessful. A supplementary study to enhance the energy reflected from the mixed layer through numerical differencing of ERTS-1 digital data is planned.

Hanson, K. J.↗

Remote detection of ocean features in the Lesser Antilles using ERTS-1 data

The author has identified the following significant results. Photographic data received from the ERTS-1 satellite over the Lesser Antilles Islands show distinct ocean features on the leeward side of each island. Attempts to relate these features to ocean eddy formations with the aid of ground truth data proved unsuccessful. However, surface and upper air wind data indicate a good correlation with the size, shape, and downwind extent of the ocean features. Studies to date indicate strongly that these features result from horizontal differences in sea surface roughness due to the wind shadow effect of the islands. The results suggest that horizontal variations in the reflectance of the sea surface will make remote sensing of the ocean mixed layer more difficult than previously anticipated. The surface reflection seems to be large enough to mask the smaller horizontal variations in backscattered energy from the mixed layer.

Hanson, K. J.↗