Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Uncertainty Preservation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

History of and Aftermath from the Withdrawal of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

On February 1, 2019, the United States and Russia withdrew from the three-decades old Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. Events precipitating the withdrawal were allegations by both the United States and Russia of a variety of treaty violations. Until that point, the treaty had been a centerpiece of arms control and a key agreement of the global security architecture. The absence of such a pillar has the potential destabilize the status quo of arms control, creating significant uncertainty in global nuclear stability and security. In this paper, we present a historical review as overture to an analysis on the impacts of this development on force structure. This analysis examines the changes in U.S., Russian, and Chinese nuclear forces which may occur as a result of the treaty's demise. The article concludes with commentary on potential actions to preserve stability in a post-INF world.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Delayed Critical Enriched Uranium Metal, 7-in.-diam. Cylinder with Thin Stainless Steel Top and Bottom Reflectors

Three 7 in. diameter highly enriched uranium (HEU; 93.17 wt % 235 U) metal cylinders were assembled on the vertical assembly machine of the Oak Ridge Critical Experiments Facility (ORCEF) with thin stainless steel reflectors (0.5, 1, and 2 in. thick) on the top and bottom. These experiments were performed during January 13–25, 1965, and used seven operational days at ORCEF. Before these experiments, unreflected and unmoderated 7 in. diameter HEU metal cylinders had been assembled to delayed criticality at ORCEF, and the results were benchmarked in HEU-MET-FAST-051. In addition to the critical experiments, the prompt neutron decay constant was measured via the Rossi-α technique, and those results are also presented in this report. To achieve near-delayed-critical systems, 5 × 5 × 0.03125 in. rectangular uranium metal parts were used on top of 7 in. diameter cylinders inside the top reflector. The delayed critical configuration from the three experiments described herein are acceptable for use as criticality safety benchmark experiments for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Program (ICSBEP), coordinated by the Nuclear Energy Agency, once the uncertainty analysis is completed. Based on previous ICSBEP benchmarks with this enriched uranium metal at ORCEF, the uncertainty in $k_{eff}$ is expected to be as low as ±0.0002. The prompt neutron time decay data could be the basis of an International Reactor Physics Evaluation Program benchmark.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hot and dense matter equation of state probability distributions for astrophysical simulations

We add an ensemble of nuclei to the equation of state for homogeneous nucleonic matter to generate a new set of models suitable for astrophysical simulations of core-collapse supernovae and neutron star mergers. We implement empirical constraints from (i) nuclear mass measurements, (ii) proton-proton scattering phase shifts, and (iii) neutron star observations. Our model is also guided by microscopic many-body theory calculations based on realistic nuclear forces, including the zero-temperature neutron matter equation of state from quantum Monte Carlo simulations and thermal contributions to the free energy from finite-temperature many-body perturbation theory. We ensure that the parameters of our model can be varied while preserving thermodynamic consistency and the connection to experimental or observational data, thus providing a probability distribution of the astrophysical hot and dense matter equation of state. Furthermore, we compare our results with those obtained from other available equations of state. While our probability distributions indeed represent a large number of possible equations of state, we cannot yet claim to have fully explored all of the uncertainties, especially with regard to the structure of nuclei in the hot and dense medium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Workshop on Improving Holdup Monitoring in the US

The characterization and quantification of nuclear deposits, or residual nuclear material retained in process equipment, generally referred to as holdup, continues to challenge nuclear processing facilities in DOE program areas such as nuclear criticality safety, material control and accountability, environmental management. The efficiency and effectiveness of nuclear operations in these facilities depends heavily on the results from nondestructive techniques designed to measure nuclear materials in situ. The traditional methods used to measure holdup were established more than 30 years ago and assume unrealistic conditions for most measurement cases. These blind, in situ measurements present unique challenges due to the following attributes: unique, non-ideal geometries; unknown deposit thicknesses; lack of representative calibration standards; large number of holdup deposit locations; and poor accessibility for many measurement locations. These difficulties and the poor assumptions made to handle them have resulted in measurement uncertainties that are often too large for many programs to effectively utilize. In an effort to address and identify solutions to the current holdup challenges facing the US nuclear industry, Oak Ridge National Laboratory hosted the Technical Workshop on Improving Holdup Monitoring in the US. The two-day workshop held August 21–22, 2019, was attended by 35 holdup measurement practitioners, program managers, stakeholders from US Department of Energy sites, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and representatives from commercial industry. The primary objectives were to identify critical elements of a successful and defensible holdup measurement program; identify technical challenges, needs, and potential improvements associated with measurement of holdup; and share best practices and lessons learned from recent accumulation events. Fourteen presentations were delivered on holdup topics including necessary elements for effective program management, measurement needs, emerging technologies and other measurement solutions, and lessons learned from recent events. These presentations highlighted best practices related to accumulation monitoring, considerations and proactive steps to facilitate holdup in new facility designs, imaging solutions to improve holdup assumptions, and new software developed in support of holdup measurements. Breakout sessions were also employed to determine additional needs and identify potential solutions to common holdup challenges. The primary discussions focused on causes and prevention of material accumulations, needs for uranium and plutonium measurements, and reduction of measurement uncertainty, all of which were explicitly identified as critical needs during the 2018 Workshop on Technical and Programmatic Needs for a Sustainable NDA Program for the US DOE.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear Data Covariances and Sampling

In this report, we present an overview of the task of producing sample nuclear data sets for the purpose of exploring the effects of nuclear data uncertainties on physics simulations. These sample data sets (or, as we sometimes call them variations) are produced based on uncertainties specified in the ENDF/B-VIII nuclear data library, although the principles discussed here apply to sampling based on similar libraries, such as JENDL. The uncertainties in ENDF and similar libraries are given in the form of mean values (a mean vector) and a covariance matrix. The components of the mean vector are what are normally thought of as the values of the nuclear data (cross sections, $\bar{v}$, the prompt fission neutron spectrum, etc.) and the covariance matrix contains the information about the uncertainties in these values and correlations between them, including correlations across different energies in a single channel and correlations across different channels.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

WPEC SG50: Developing an Automatically Readable, Comprehensive and Curated Experimental Nuclear Reaction Database

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation (WPEC) subgroup (SG) 50 was formed in 2020 to develop an automatically readable, comprehensive and curated experimental nuclear reaction database. This database is called MEDUSAL (Machine-readable Experimental Data User Application & Library), and will draw from EXFOR. The EXFOR database preserves experimental nuclear reaction data true to its original documentation and information from the authors of the data. MEDUSAL will deviate from EXFOR by storing additional information from users of the data for their fields of work (evaluation, model development, validation, etc.). This includes expert judgment on the data sets, identification of data points as outliers, renormalization of the data to the newest monitor reactions, and estimations of missing uncertainty sources. The format for MEDUSAL is being developed to enable easy automatic parsing of large amounts of data. Here, we will summarize the use cases, high-level requirements and first steps towards developing the database MEDUSAL and the API to access it.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Single neutron transfer on 23 Ne and its relevance for the pathway of nucleosynthesis in astrophysical X-ray bursts

We present new experimental measurements of resonance strengths in the astrophysical 23 Al($p, γ$) 24 Si reaction, constraining the pathway of nucleosynthesis beyond 22 Mg in X-ray burster scenarios. Specifically, we have performed the first measurement of the ($d, p$) reaction using a radioactive beam of 23 Ne to explore levels in 24 Ne, the mirror analog of 24 Si. Four strong single-particle states were observed and corresponding neutron spectroscopic factors were extracted with a precision of ~20%. Using these spectroscopic factors, together with mirror state identifications, we have reduced uncertainties in the strength of the key ℓ = 0 resonance at $E_r$ = 157 keV, in the astrophysical 23 Al($p, γ$) reaction, by a factor of 4. Our results show that the 22 Mg($p, γ$) 23 Al($p, γ$) pathway dominates over the competing 22 Mg($α, γ$) reaction in all but the most energetic X-ray burster events (T > 0.85 GK), significantly affecting energy production and the preservation of hydrogen fuel.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design of Premoderated Pulsed-Neutron Die-Away Experiments for Validating Beryllium Thermal Neutron Scattering Laws

Accurate thermal scattering laws (TSLs) are essential for reliable neutron transport simulations, particularly for systems with low-energy neutrons. Pulsed-neutron die-away (PNDA) experiments provide a highly sensitive platform for TSL validation but face challenges from fast neutron leakage and material constraints in nonhydrogenous targets such as beryllium. This work investigates the use of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) as a premoderator to reduce leakage, improve thermalization, and shorten experimental run times while preserving sensitivity to the Be TSL. Here, three premoderated configurations, encapsulation, slab, and interstitial, were evaluated using MCNP6.3® simulations with ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data. The effects of the Be TSL was quantified by comparing decay constants from simulations with and without 𝑆⁡(𝛼,𝛽) treatments for both beryllium and HDPE. The results show that premoderation enables the use of as little as 5.20% of the beryllium volume required for an unreflected geometry, achieving uncertainties below 0.5% and reducing run time by up to 72.2% in the studied configurations. The interstitial configuration achieved the best balance between low statistical uncertainty and high TSL sensitivity, outperforming the slab and encapsulation designs. These findings demonstrate that carefully optimized premoderation can significantly enhance the efficiency, feasibility, and precision of PNDA experiments for Be TSL validation.

Integral Experiments↗
DOE OSTI2024

Event generators for high-energy physics experiments

We provide an overview of the status of Monte-Carlo event generators for high-energy particle physics. Guided by the experimental needs and requirements, we highlight areas of active development, and opportunities for future improvements. Particular emphasis is given to physics models and algorithms that are employed across a variety of experiments. These common themes in event generator development lead to a more comprehensive understanding of physics at the highest energies and intensities, and allow models to be tested against a wealth of data that have been accumulated over the past decades. A cohesive approach to event generator development will allow these models to be further improved and systematic uncertainties to be reduced, directly contributing to future experimental success. Event generators are part of a much larger ecosystem of computational tools. They typically involve a number of unknown model parameters that must be tuned to experimental data, while maintaining the integrity of the underlying physics models. Making both these data, and the analyses with which they have been obtained accessible to future users is an essential aspect of open science and data preservation. It ensures the consistency of physics models across a variety of experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spent Nuclear Fuel Exploratory Roadmaps - 20054

The U.S. Department of Energy manages nearly 2,500 metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM) of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) resulting from several decades of research, testing, and production reactors [DOE 1995]. This SNF is managed at the DOE Hanford Site in Washington State (Hanford), Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and Savannah River Site in South Carolina (SRS). From 1995 to 2004, the Department of Energy (DOE) made several key programmatic decisions, supported by appropriate documentation in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) for the management of SNF [DOE 1995]. These decisions have provided an overarching framework for SNF management, as well as site-specific and SNF-related management decisions for the past two decades. In the years since these decisions were made, with the notable exception of the successful drying and packaging of the production reactor fuel at Hanford, a majority of the decisions have been largely unimplemented. Also, since these decisions were made, a number of changes that bear on considerations relative to the path forward have occurred. A SNF Exploratory Road map activity, identified reasonable alternate pathways for DoE's inventory of SNF. Three fundamental pathways were identified in this activity for the long-term management and disposition of DOE SNF: Direct Disposal Pathway, Existing Processing Pathway and Alternate Processing Pathway. Further actions would be required (e.g., evaluation of NEPA analysis, technology maturity evaluations, refinement of cost and risks, benefits and advantages relative to other alternate paths) to define and inform many key decisions that will result in the selection of the disposition pathways that are most beneficial to the US Government in dispositioning DoE's SNF inventory. DOE is currently managing all SNF safely; however, the age of DOE-owned SNF and facilities for storing and processing SNF, coupled with the uncertainty of the storage duration, necessitates decisions and actions to ensure that the infrastructure will be in place to ensure continued safe and effective long-term management and eventual disposal. The identification of reasonable alternate pathways took these considerations into account in an effort to proactively manage conditions that could challenge the safety of storing and managing DOE SNF over the time periods now contemplated and also to ensure that flexibility is preserved to ensure that the DOE SNF remains compatible with final disposition pathways when they become available. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Harmonized and high-quality datasets of aerosol optical depth at a US continental site, 1997-2018

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) characterizes the aerosol burden in the atmosphere, while its wavelength dependence is a sign of particle size. Long-term records of wavelength-resolved AOD with high quality and suitable continuity are required for climate change assessment. Typically, climate-related studies use AOD products provided by several, and perhaps different, ground-based instruments. The measurements from these instruments often have different accuracy and temporal resolution. To preserve the advantages of these products (high quality) and to reduce their disadvantages (patchy records), we generate a merged dataset obtained from several instruments in which a nearly-continuous AOD record is found at two wavelengths (500 and 870 nm) with high quality and high temporal resolution (1-min) for a 21-yr period (1997-2018). The combined dataset addresses: (1) varying data quality and resolution mismatch of the individual AOD records, and (2) the uncertainty of the merged AOD and its relevance for user-specified needs. The generated dataset will be beneficial for a wide range of applications including aerosol-radiation interactions and their impact in forcing climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sulfur Pellets Responses to a Bare and Steel Reflected Pulse of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Health Physics Research Reactor

The experiments analyzed in this report were conducted at the Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR), also known as the $\textit{Fast Burst Reactor}$. The reactor was designed and built at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in 1961. The HPRR was an unmoderated, unshielded fast reactor that used highly enriched uranium and molybdenum alloy as fuel. The reactor was initially sent to the Nevada Test Site in 1962, where it was used to evaluate radiation doses received as a result of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings during World War II. A few years later, the reactor was sent back to ORNL to be part of the Dosimetry Application Research (DOSAR) facility shown in Figure 1, which included a reactor building shown on the left (west) of the picture and a control and laboratory building in the upper right corner (northeast). The critical assembly was used for numerous technical studies, including systems calibration, dosimetry, radiobiology of plants and animals, testing of radiation alarms, as well as teaching and training in radiation dosimetry and nuclear engineering. Between 1963 and 1987, the HPRR was operated for thousands of hours, achieving criticality close to 10,000 times and motivating many publications. The HPRR was decommissioned in 1987. The goal of this effort was to use historical data from operation of the HPRR to create a criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) benchmark to be included in the $\textit{International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments}$ (ICSBEP Handbook). A thorough inspection was performed of all available documentation and information available. The most promising experiments that were selected for evaluation were those described in the 1987 ORNL report entitled $\textit{Health Physics Research Reactor Reference Dosimetry}$, ORNL-6240. The report includes reference dosimetry results of the shielded and unshielded configurations of the HPRR after burst operations. Because of changes to the reactor positioning and storage systems that were made in 1985, the previous dosimetry reports became obsolete, and the newly designed experiments were needed to create the HPRR’s adjusted dosimetry data. The various results reported in ORNL-6240 include reference doses and dose equivalents from different conventions at different distances and elevations as determined using the detected neutron fluence and conversion factors. The HPRR neutron fluence was obtained through different methods, including sulfur pellet analysis and threshold detector unit data. Information about the HPRR spectrum was also obtained through Bonner sphere measurements. This benchmark is focused on a part of the measured sulfur fluences reported in Appendix H of ORNL-6240. Standard commercial sulfur pellets were placed at different distances from the HPRR centerline during burst operation and were activated due to the 32 S(n,p) 32 P reaction. The resulting 32 P activity was then measured and the information about the corresponding sulfur fluence and/or neutron dose could be extracted. Many of those measurements have 7 been performed with the HPRR in its bare configuration or with different shields (combinations of Lucite, concrete, steel). All the necessary, precise information about material and/or dimensions of the different shields was not found, so it was decided to focus only on the unshielded and steel-shielded configurations to minimize the benchmark uncertainty. A total of 31 cases (24 unshielded and 7 shielded cases at different positions) of sulfur fluence were selected before evaluation to develop the benchmark.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Oak Ridge National Laboratory Health Physics Research Reactor Operation Data for Critical Benchmark Creation [Abstract]

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR) was a research reactor designed and built at ORNL in 1961. The critical assembly was using a highly enriched uranium and molybdenum alloy as the fuel, and it could be operated in steady-state or burst modes. The reactor was used for about 25 years to produce a lot of publications related to dosimetry, radiobiology and radiation detectors testing before its decommissioning in 1987. In recent years, the idea of using legacy operation data from the to create a valuable critical accident alarm system shielding benchmark arose. Such a benchmark has been submitted to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP) Technical Review Group for a potential inclusion in the 2022 version of the handbook. Another way to use the valuable data from the operation of the HPRR is to evaluate the feasibility of the creation of a subcritical or prompt supercritical benchmark for inclusion in the ICSBEP or the International Reactor Physics Experiments Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) handbooks. To initiate a burst, the HPRR had to be operated in a slightly subcritical state for a few minutes. Then, the insertion of the burst control rod would greatly increase the reactivity of the system and start the burst. No critical configuration of the HPRR critical assembly could be located. The only information available concerns stable subcritical and prompt supercritical states, found in a burst experiments’ logbook. In the recovered logbook pages, information about 8 different bursts is available. The information includes the rods positions before and during a burst, the recorded subcritical reactor period and reactivity, and the burst fission yield derived from the temperature elevation sulfur pellet irradiation analysis. By using the HPRR logbook information and the as-built drawings of the critical assembly, a highly detailed model of the HPRR was created with SCALE 6.2.4/KENO-VI. Eight KENO-VI models were created to replicate the sub-critical assembly configurations described in the eight bursts from the recovered logbook pages. KENO-VI calculates k eff and it can be linked to a reactivity value in cents by using the delayed neutron fraction B eff , also calculated by KENO-VI. KENO-VI can also be used to model the prompt super-critical configurations of the HPRR and to assess the similarity with the burst measurements by comparing the calculated k eff and the measured fission yields between each burst. Unfortunately, high uncertainty exist and the obtained discrepancies between experiments and calculation results are high, compromising the creation of a valuable critical benchmark from HPRR operation data. The reasons of the discrepancies and potential ways to solve them are explored.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

How May the Choice of Downscaling Techniques and Meteorological Reference Observations Affect Future Hydroclimate Projections?

Abstract We present an intercomparison of a suite of high‐resolution downscaled climate projections based on a six‐member General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble from Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs have been downscaled using dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques based on two meteorological reference observations over the conterminous United States. We use the regional climate model, RegCM4, for dynamical downscaling, double bias correction constructed analogs method for statistical downscaling, and Daymet and Livneh datasets as the reference observations for statistical training and bias‐correction. We evaluate the performances of downscaled data in both historical and future periods under the SSP585 scenario. While dynamical downscaling improves the simulation of some performance evaluation indices, it adds an extra bias in others, highlighting the need for statistical correction before its use in impact assessments. Downscaled datasets after bias‐correction compare exceptionally well with observations. However, the choice of downscaling techniques and the underlying reference observations influence the hydroclimate characteristics of downscaled data. For instance, the statistical downscaling generally preserves the GCMs climate change signal but overestimates the frequency of hot extremes. Similarly, simulated future changes are sensitive to the choice of reference observations, particularly for precipitation extremes that exhibit a higher projected increase in the ensembles trained and/or corrected by Daymet than Livneh. Overall, these results demonstrate that multiple factors, including downscaling techniques and reference observations, can substantially influence the outcome of downscaled climate projections and stress the need for a comprehensive understanding of such method‐based uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

SCALE Code System

The SCALE Code System is a widely used modeling and simulation suite for nuclear safety analysis and design that is developed, maintained, tested, and managed by the Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division (RNSD) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SCALE provides a comprehensive, verified and validated, user-friendly tool set for criticality safety, reactor and lattice physics, radiation shielding, spent fuel and radioactive source term characterization, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Since 1980, regulators, licensees, and research institutions around the world have used SCALE for safety analysis and design. SCALE provides an integrated framework with dozens of computational modules, including three deterministic and three Monte Carlo radiation transport solvers that are selected based on the desired solution strategy. SCALE includes current nuclear data libraries and problem-dependent processing tools for continuous-energy (CE) and multigroup (MG) neutronics and coupled neutron-gamma calculations, as well as activation, depletion, and decay calculations. SCALE includes unique capabilities for automated variance reduction for shielding calculations, as well as sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. SCALE’s graphical user interfaces assist with accurate system modeling, visualization of nuclear data, and convenient access to desired results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Selecting Appropriate Model Complexity: An Example of Tracer Inversion for Thermal Prediction in Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Abstract A major challenge in the inversion of subsurface parameters is the ill‐posedness issue caused by the inherent subsurface complexities and the generally spatially sparse data. Appropriate simplifications of inversion models are thus necessary to make the inversion process tractable and meanwhile preserve the predictive ability of the inversion results. In this study, we investigate the effect of model complexity on fracture aperture inversion and thermal performance prediction in a field‐scale EGS model. Principal component analysis was used to map the aperture field to a low‐dimensional latent space. The complexity of the inversion model was quantitatively represented by the percentage of total variance in the original aperture fields preserved by the latent space. Tracer, pressure and flow rate data were used to invert for fracture aperture through an ensemble‐based inversion method, and the inferred aperture field was used to predict thermal performance. With an over‐simplified aperture model, ensemble collapse occurred. The inverted aperture models failed to resolve necessary flow and transport features, leading to a biased thermal performance prediction. A complex aperture model involved excessive features and was prone to overinterpreting the inversion data. Both the tracer/pressure/flow rate data reproduction and thermal prediction showed significant uncertainties, making it difficult to properly estimate long‐term thermal performance. Fortunately, our results indicate that there exists an appropriate model complexity which can simultaneously match inversion data and predict thermal performance with an acceptable uncertainty. The quality of the fit of tracer data appears to be a useful indicator of such an appropriate model complexity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Desmearing Bonse–Hart USANS data using Bayesian Gaussian process regression

Ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) enables access to micrometer-scale structures but is intrinsically affected by strong, anisotropic resolution smearing arising from slit-geometry optics. As a result, recovery of the intrinsic scattering intensity constitutes an ill-posed inverse problem, and commonly used iterative desmearing methods lack rigorous uncertainty quantification. We present a Bayesian desmearing framework for slit-geometry USANS based on Gaussian process regression. In this approach, the scattering intensity is modeled as a smooth random function, and the instrumental point spread function is incorporated explicitly as a forward operator. The resulting formulation yields a closed-form maximum a posteriori solution with well-defined credibility intervals. Computational benchmarks and experimental validation using combined USANS and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) measurements demonstrate that the framework enables stable desmearing, suppresses experimental noise, and preserves physically meaningful structural features under realistic conditions.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extending Conformal Prediction to Hidden Markov Models with Exact Validity via de Finetti’s Theorem for Markov Chains

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify uncertainty in settings where the data is independent and identically distributed (IID), or more generally, exchangeable. Conformal prediction takes in a pre-trained classifier and a calibration dataset as inputs, and returns a function which maps feature vectors to subsets of classes. The output of the returned function for a new feature vector is guaranteed to contain the true class with a pre-specified confidence. Despite its success and usefulness in IID settings, extending conformal prediction to non-exchangeable (e.g., Markovian) data in a manner that provably preserves all desirable theoretical properties has largely remained an open problem. As a solution, we extend conformal prediction to the setting of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with unknown parameters. The key idea behind the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti’s Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are then viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework and is general enough to be useful in many sequential prediction problems.

Nettasinghe, Don Buddhika Wijayantha↗