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A Practical Comparison of Data-Driven Prognostics Methods for Energy Systems
This study explores data-driven prognostics for nuclear power plant (NPP) condensers, focusing on tube fouling. We utilized the Asherah nuclear power plant simulator (ANS) to compare four methods: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). By simulating various fouling scenarios in the ANS, we generated data with different degradation rates under transient operations. The models were trained and tested on these data, with performance evaluated visually and numerically including uncertainty assessment. The LSTM model excelled, exhibiting minimal prediction noise and the most accurate remaining useful life estimates across all degradation levels. Its ability to capture long-term dependencies and produce cleaner outputs makes it a strong candidate, although accurate training data across the entire component lifespan are crucial. The RF model emerged as a robust alternative, providing reliable predictions with high confidence. The FCNN and SVR models, while less effective overall, showed potential under specific conditions. FCNN offers a less complex alternative to LSTM and might benefit from larger datasets. SVR excels in precision when the quality of the training data is high. Furthermore, this study highlights the operational benefits of advanced prognostics in the energy sector and emphasizes the need for further research in NPP condenser health management through real-life experiments.
Evaluation of the table Mountain Ronchi telescope for angular tracking
The performance of the University of California at San Diego (UCSD) Table Mountain telescope was evaluated to determine the potential of such an instrument for optical angular tracking. This telescope uses a Ronchi ruling to measure differential positions of stars at the meridian. The Ronchi technique is summarized and the operational features of the Table Mountain instrument are described. Results from an analytic model, simulations, and actual data are presented that characterize the telescope's current performance. For a star pair of visual magnitude 7, the differential uncertainty of a 5-min observation is about 50 nrad (10 marcsec), and tropospheric fluctuations are the dominant error source. At magnitude 11, the current differential uncertainty is approximately 800 nrad (approximately 170 marcsec). This magnitude is equivalent to that of a 2-W laser with a 0.4-m aperture transmitting to Earth from a spacecraft at Saturn. Photoelectron noise is the dominant error source for stars of visual magnitude 8.5 and fainter. If the photoelectron noise is reduced, ultimately tropospheric fluctuations will be the limiting source of error at an average level of 35 nrad (7 marcsec) for stars approximately 0.25 deg apart. Three near-term strategies are proposed for improving the performance of the telescope to the 10-nrad level: improving the efficiency of the optics, masking background starlight, and averaging tropospheric fluctuations over multiple observations.
Variable Grid Method
NETL’s Variable Grid Method (VGM) is a novel approach that leverages GIS capabilities to simultaneously visualize and quantify spatial data trends and underlying data uncertainty. The flexible VGM approach utilizes a range of spatial datasets and uncertainty quantifications, which can be calculated using data related to sample density, sample variance, interpolation error, multiple simulations, etc., to create an integrated visualization of data and uncertainty. The intuitive manner of the VGM helps communicate the relationship between uncertainty and spatial data to effectively guide research, support advanced computation analyses, and helps inform research, management and policy decisions. The VGM approach is being developed into a standalone tool designed to integrate into a variety of research workflows, providing users the capabilities to utilize the VGM for their datasets, analysis, and models in support of their decision making needs. The VGM approach was developed as part of NETL’s Offshore portfolio. It was further matured and utilized in projects associated with both NETL’s Unconventional Resources and Carbon Storage portfolios, and is now being further developed by Varigrid, LLC.
Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning
Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.
Investigation of Relevant Distribution System Representation With DG for Voltage Stability Margin Assessment
This paper emphasizes the importance of including unbalanced distribution systems for voltage stability studies in power systems. The paper aims to: discuss the various simulation methods for power system analysis; highlight the need for modeling unbalanced distribution system for accurate load margin assessment; demonstrate the influence of net-load unbalance (NLU) on voltage stability margin (VSM). We also share a T&D co-simulation interface with commercial power system solvers. The distribution system is evolving rapidly with high proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs); these are not guaranteed to proliferate in a balanced manner and uncertainty resulting due to these DERs is well acknowledged. These uncertainties cannot be captured or visualized without representing the distribution system in detail along with the transmission system. We show the impact of proliferation of DERs in various 3-phase proportions on voltage stability margin through T&D co-simulation. We also study the impact of volt/VAR control on voltage stability margin. This analysis is only possible by representing the distribution system in detail through T&D co-simulation. In conclusion, higher percentage of net-load unbalance (NLU) in distribution system aggravates the voltage stability margin of the distribution system, which can further negatively influence the overall voltage stability margin of the system.
SIMPA
SIMPA (Spatially Integrated Multivariate Probabilistic Assessment) is a Python-based fuzzy logic tool designed to help assess the likelihood of fluid and/or gas migration pathways throughout the subsurface. The SIMPA tool helps users develop and apply fuzzy logic to various datasets to construct knowledge-based inferential rules that reduce uncertainty and results in a visual representation depicting the likelihood of potential fluid and/or gas migration pathways. SIMPA results can offers an understanding of the magnitude and extent of natural and anthropogenic subsurface pathways, offering insight to subsurface hazards to improve storage assessments and critical information for improving industry decisions related to the use of various CCS methods and technologies. In addition, SIMPA can offer new insights for areas with little to no data to help inform site selection and production, evaluate potential risks and hazards, and support various decision making and risk management needs.
Precise Image-Based Motion Estimation for Autonomous Small Body Exploration
We have developed and tested a software algorithm that enables onboard autonomous motion estimation near small bodies using descent camera imagery and laser altimetry. Through simulation and testing, we have shown that visual feature tracking can decrease uncertainty in spacecraft motion to a level that makes landing on small, irregularly shaped, bodies feasible. Possible future work will include qualification of the algorithm as a flight experiment for the Deep Space 4/Champollion comet lander mission currently under study at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Exploring Explicit Uncertainty for Binary Analysis (EUBA)
Reverse engineering (RE) analysts struggle to address critical questions about the safety of binary code accurately and promptly, and their supporting program analysis tools are simply wrong sometimes. The analysis tools have to approximate in order to provide any information at all, but this means that they introduce uncertainty into their results. And those uncertainties chain from analysis to analysis. We hypothesize that exposing sources, impacts, and control of uncertainty to human binary analysts will allow the analysts to approach their hardest problems with high-powered analytic techniques that they know when to trust. Combining expertise in binary analysis algorithms, human cognition, uncertainty quantification, verification and validation, and visualization, we pursue research that should benefit binary software analysis efforts across the board. We find a strong analogy between RE and exploratory data analysis (EDA); we begin to characterize sources and types of uncertainty found in practice in RE (both in the process and in supporting analyses); we explore a domain-specific focus on uncertainty in pointer analysis, showing that more precise models do help analysts answer small information flow questions faster and more accurately; and we test a general population with domain-general sudoku problems, showing that adding "knobs" to an analysis does not significantly slow down performance. This document describes our explorations in uncertainty in binary analysis.
Quantifying uncertainties in crystal electric field Hamiltonian fits to neutron data
We systematically examine uncertainties from fitting rare earth single-ion crystal electric field (CEF) Hamiltonians to inelastic neutron scattering data. Using pyrochlore and delafossite structures as test cases, we find that uncertainty in CEF parameters can be large despite visually excellent fits. These results show Yb ^{3+} 3 + compounds have particularly large g g -tensor uncertainty because of the few available peaks. In such cases, additional constraints are necessary for meaningful fits.
Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance
Paper for the IEEE Visualization Conference Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space.
Performance Assessment of a Generic Nuclear Waste Repository in Shale - 18392
A performance assessment (PA) is an important component of a comprehensive safety analysis for a nuclear waste repository. In a PA, probabilistic simulations of the total repository system are performed, and results are evaluated against performance metrics. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses help prioritize additional research and model development. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has been developing a state of the art PA simulation software tool-kit, Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework, that couples increasingly higher fidelity models of subsystem processes into total system PA simulations. Over the past several years, PAs of generic repositories in three geologic media (salt, shale, and crystalline rock) have demonstrated ongoing developments in capability. The current PA of a nuclear waste repository in a generic shale formation showcases GDSA Framework, including capabilities in domain discretization (Cubit), multi-physics simulations (PFLOTRAN), uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (Dakota), and visualization (Paraview). The generic shale reference case considers the disposal of 22,000 metric tons heavy metal of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in a generic shale formation. PA simulations account for the thermal load and radionuclide inventory of the waste form, components of the engineered barrier system including waste package and buffer, and components of the natural barrier system including the host rock shale and underlying and overlying stratigraphic units. Two repository layouts are considered, one for emplacement of waste packages containing 12 pressurized water reactor (PWR) assemblies, and one for 4-PWR waste package emplacement. Model domains are half-symmetry and contain between 7 and 22 million grid cells. Grid refinement captures the detail of individual waste packages, emplacement drifts, access drifts, and shafts. Simulations are run in a high-performance computing (HPC) environment on 512 or 2048 processes. The governing equations describing coupled heat and fluid flow and reactive transport are solved with PFLOTRAN, an open-source, massively parallel multiphase flow and reactive transport code. Additional simulated processes include waste package degradation; waste form dissolution; radioactive decay and ingrowth in aqueous, solid, and adsorbed phases; and a simple biosphere based on a pumping well. Simulations are run to 106 y; dose and radionuclide concentrations are observed within aquifers at a point approximately 5 km downgradient of the repository. Dakota is used to sample likely ranges of input parameters including waste form and waste package degradation rates and properties of engineered and natural materials to quantify uncertainty in predicted concentrations and sensitivity to input parameters. Given the assumptions of the reference case, results of 12-PWR and 4-PWR simulations are very similar. Dose at the pumping well 5-km downgradient of the repository does not exceed 10-9 Sv/y. I-129 is the largest contributor to dose. The dose due to Cl-36, the next largest contributor, is orders of magnitude smaller. At the pumping well, the concentration of I-129 5-km downgradient does not exceed 10-14 mol/L. Rank correlation coefficients indicate that the maximum concentration of I-129 within the aquifer is sensitive to shale (repository host rock) porosity and aquifer permeability. These results affirm that HPC-capable codes can be used to simulate important multi-physics couplings directly in a total system performance assessment of a geologic repository, and can be used in prioritization of future research and model development. (authors)
Supporting automation in spacecraft activity planning with simulation and visualization
Automation is gaining momentum in spacecraft operations, however, at a much slower pace than comparable application domains. The reasons behind slow adoption is (1) the need for high reliability and (2) the limited interaction between human operators and the automated systems. For automated systems to be adopted and trusted by humans, humans need to gain intuition about the decision making process of the automated system and trust in its execution [1]. In this paper, we present how simulation and visualization can enhance adoption of an automated on-board activity scheduling system, specifically in the context of Mars2020 rover mission[2]. The visualization aims to communicate to the users degree of variance and uncertainty in possible schedule execution. Our preliminary validation results suggest that the proposed visualization increases operators’ confidence in—and likelihood of adopting—the automated scheduling system.
Coordinated Ramping Product and Regulation Reserve Procurements in CAISO and MISO using Multi-Scale Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts (Pro2R)
How can probabilistic solar forecasts lower costs and improve reliability for independent system operator (ISO) markets? We tackle this question in three steps. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty in those forecasts to error distributions for net load ramps for the California ISO (CAISO) using statistical and machine learning methods. Projected net load errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Finally, a multi-period look-ahead production cost model quantifies how conditional ramp requirements can a) decrease operating costs by lowering requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods, and b) reduce generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. In addition to the products just described (quantification of solar uncertainty, its translation into requirements for ramp capability product, and quantification of the benefits of more accurate ramp requirements), this project also developed a visualization system that alerts system operators of ramp and uncertainty conditions within the network based on solar forecasts. The system is called Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RaVIS). These four products represent significant advances in the state-of-the-art of probabilistic solar forecasting, development of weather-informed reserve requirements, production costing methods for estimating the benefits of more accurate reserve requirements, and visualization of system status, respectively. Yet the products are also practical and can be immediately implemented, potentially enabling system operators to save millions of dollars in ramp product procurement costs per year.
Information Guided Exploration of Scalar Values and Isocontours in Ensemble Datasets
Uncertainty of scalar values in an ensemble dataset is often represented by the collection of their corresponding isocontours. Various techniques such as contour-boxplot, contour variability plot, glyphs and probabilistic marching-cubes have been proposed to analyze and visualize ensemble isocontours. All these techniques assume that a scalar value of interest is already known to the user. Not much work has been done in guiding users to select the scalar values for such uncertainty analysis. Moreover, analyzing and visualizing a large collection of ensemble isocontours for a selected scalar value has its own challenges. Interpreting the visualizations of such large collections of isocontours is also a difficult task. In this work, we propose a new information-theoretic approach towards addressing these issues. Using specific information measures that estimate the predictability and surprise of specific scalar values, we evaluate the overall uncertainty associated with all the scalar values in an ensemble system. This helps the scientist to understand the effects of uncertainty on different data features. To understand in finer details the contribution of individual members towards the uncertainty of the ensemble isocontours of a selected scalar value, we propose a conditional entropy based algorithm to quantify the individual contributions. This can help simplify analysis and visualization for systems with more members by identifying the members contributing the most towards overall uncertainty. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method by applying it on real-world datasets from material sciences, weather forecasting and ocean simulation experiments.
Demonstration of LOTUS multiphysics BEPU analysis framework for LB-LOCA simulations
The LOCA Toolkit for U.S. light water reactors (LOTUS) currently under development at Idaho National Labs (INL) is a plug and play, multiphysics environment to be used in support of system level plant transient analysis. New proposed rule changes in LOCA safety regulations (10 CFR 50.46c) require the inclusion of cladding hydrogen content in the evaluation of equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) and peak cladding temperature (PCT). The potential for a future implementation of said rule change motivates the current development of a unique union of core design, system analysis, and fuel performance codes within a framework allowing for uncertainty quantification (UQ). A demonstration of LOTUS capabilities to address this potential need is performed with an integration of the core design code PHISICS, the fuel performance code FRAPCON, and the system analysis code RELAP5-3D. UQ is performed via Wilks’ method to compute the one sided 95/95 confidence values of the aforementioned safety metrics. Results demonstrate the benefits of the Multiphysics Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (MP-BEPU) methodology and provide useful visualization of the limiting cases.
Uncertainty quantification for molecular property predictions with graph neural architecture search
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a prominent class of data-driven methods for molecular property prediction. However, a key limitation of typical GNN models is their inability to quantify uncertainties in the predictions. This capability is crucial for ensuring the trustworthy use and deployment of models in downstream tasks. To that end, we introduce AutoGNNUQ, an automated uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach for molecular property prediction. AutoGNNUQ leverages architecture search to generate an ensemble of high-performing GNNs, enabling the estimation of predictive uncertainties. Our approach employs variance decomposition to separate data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainties, providing valuable insights for reducing them. In our computational experiments, we demonstrate that AutoGNNUQ outperforms existing UQ methods in terms of both prediction accuracy and UQ performance on multiple benchmark datasets, and generalizes well to out-of-distribution datasets. Additionally, we utilize t-SNE visualization to explore correlations between molecular features and uncertainty, offering insight for dataset improvement. AutoGNNUQ has broad applicability in domains such as drug discovery and materials science, where accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for decision-making.
Structural and functional analyses of human cerebral cortex using a surface-based atlas
We have analyzed the geometry, geography, and functional organization of human cerebral cortex using surface reconstructions and cortical flat maps of the left and right hemispheres generated from a digital atlas (the Visible Man). The total surface area of the reconstructed Visible Man neocortex is 1570 cm2 (both hemispheres), approximately 70% of which is buried in sulci. By linking the Visible Man cerebrum to the Talairach stereotaxic coordinate space, the locations of activation foci reported in neuroimaging studies can be readily visualized in relation to the cortical surface. The associated spatial uncertainty was empirically shown to have a radius in three dimensions of approximately 10 mm. Application of this approach to studies of visual cortex reveals the overall patterns of activation associated with different aspects of visual function and the relationship of these patterns to topographically organized visual areas. Our analysis supports a distinction between an anterior region in ventral occipito-temporal cortex that is selectively involved in form processing and a more posterior region (in or near areas VP and V4v) involved in both form and color processing. Foci associated with motion processing are mainly concentrated in a region along the occipito-temporal junction, the ventral portion of which overlaps with foci also implicated in form processing. Comparisons between flat maps of human and macaque monkey cerebral cortex indicate significant differences as well as many similarities in the relative sizes and positions of cortical regions known or suspected to be homologous in the two species.