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At least 91 records · Page 5

A Modified Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for the Eastern USA and Canada, Evaluated With Comparison to Atmospheric Observations and Other Biospheric Models

Atmospheric CO 2 measurements from a dense surface network can help to evaluate terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) with two key benefits. First, gridded CO 2 flux estimates can be evaluated over regional scales, not possible using flux tower observations at discrete locations for model evaluation. Second, TBM ability to explain atmospheric CO 2 fluctuations due to the biosphere can be directly tested, an important objective for anthropogenic emissions monitoring using atmospheric observations. Here, we customize the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for an eastern North American domain with strong biological activity upwind of urban areas. Parameters are optimized using flux tower observations from a historical database with sites in (and near) the domain. In addition, the respiration model (originally a linear function of temperature) is modified to account for impacts of changing foliage, non-linear temperature, and water stress. Flux estimates from VPRM, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the Simple Biosphere Model v4 (SiB4), are convolved with footprints from atmospheric transport models for evaluation with CO 2 observations at 21 towers in the domain, with roughly half of the towers used here for the first time. Results show that the new respiration model in VPRM helps to correct a growing season sink bias in the atmosphere associated with underestimated summertime respiration using the original model with annual parameters. The new VPRM also better explains fine-scale atmospheric CO 2 variability compared to other TBMs, due to higher resolution diagnostic phenology, the new respiration model, domain-specific parameters, and high-quality input data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantification of Physical and Numerical Mixing in a Coastal Ocean Model Using Salinity Variance Budgets

Numerical mixing, the spurious mixing primarily generated by the discretization of advection, is often significant in estuarine and coastal models due to sharp, energetic fronts. In this study, we compare on- and offline estimates of numerical mixing in a submesoscale-resolving realistic simulation of the ocean state over the Texas-Louisiana continental shelf. While offline estimates of numerical mixing differ from online estimates, offline methods may be the only analysis available. This study offers insight into the differences between the on- and offline methods. We use two methods to estimate numerical mixing offline, based on salinity squared $s^2$ and volume-mean salinity variance $s^{\prime^2}$. Numerical mixing estimated from the $s^{\prime^2}$ budget is generally within 60\% of the magnitude for the online method but captures the temporal variability well. However, the $s^2$ budget compares poorly due to larger truncation errors associated with the tendency and advection terms, which can be reduced by increasing the model output frequency. We also investigate the effects of horizontal resolution on numerical mixing using a two-way nested grid. The volume-integrated numerical mixing constitutes 57\% of the bulk physical mixing -- the mixing prescribed by the turbulence closure scheme -- in the coarse model and may exceed the physical mixing by half an order of magnitude. We find that numerical mixing is reduced by 35\% on average in the nested model, less than expected based on scaling of the numerical mixing for an upwind advection scheme, likely due to new dynamical processes that emerge in the nested simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Zonal Patterns in Late Quaternary Tropical South American Precipitation

Speleothem oxygen isotope records (δ 18 O) of tropical South American rainfall in the late Quaternary show a zonal “South American Precipitation Dipole” (SAPD). The dipole is characterized by opposing east-west precipitation anomalies compared to the present—wetter in the east and drier in the west at the mid-Holocene (~7 ka), and drier in the east and wetter in the west at the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka). However, the SAPD remains enigmatic because it is expressed differently in western versus eastern δ18O records and isotope-enabled climate model simulations usually misrepresent the magnitude and/or spatial pattern of δ 18 O change. Here, we address the SAPD enigma in two parts. First, we re-interpret the δ 18 O data to account for upwind rainout effects that are known to be pervasive in tropical South America, but are not always considered in Quaternary paleoclimate studies. Our revised interpretation reconciles the δ 18 O data with cave infiltration and other proxy records, and indicates that the centroid of tropical South American rainfall has migrated zonally over time. Second, using an energy balance model of tropical atmospheric circulation, we hypothesize that zonal migration of the precipitation centroid can be explained by regional energy budget shifts, such as changing Saharan albedo associated with the African Humid Period, that have not been modeled in previous SAPD studies. This hypothesis of a migrating precipitation centroid presents a new framework for interpreting δ18O records from tropical South America and may help explain the zonal rainfall anomalies that predate the late Quaternary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urban Effect on Precipitation and Deep Convective Systems Over Dallas‐Fort Worth

A range of multi-year observational data sets are used to characterize the hydroclimate of the Dallas Fort-Worth area (DFW) and to investigate the impact of urban land cover on daily accumulated precipitation, RADAR composite reflectivity (cREF), and cloud top height (CTH) during the warm season. Analyses of observational data indicate rainfall rates (RR) in a 45° annulus sector 50–100 km downwind of the city are enhanced relative to an upwind area of comparable size. Enhancement of mean precipitation intensity in this annulus sector is not observed on days with spatially averaged RR > 6 mm/day. Under some flow directions, the probability of cREF >30 dBZ, occurrence of hail, and the probability of CTH >10,000 geopotential meters are also enhanced up to 200 km downwind of DFW. Two deep convection events that passed over DFW are simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting model using a range of microphysical schemes and evaluated using RADAR observations. Model configurations that exhibit the highest fidelity in these control simulations are used in a series of perturbation experiments where the areal extent of the city is varied between zero (replacement with grassland) and eight times its current size. These perturbation experiments indicate a non-linear response of Mesoscale Convective System properties to the urban areal extent and a very strong sensitivity to the microphysical scheme used. The impact on precipitation from the urban area, even when it is expanded to eight-times the current extent, is much less marked for deep convection with stronger synoptic forcing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MODIS Aerosol and Low‐Cloud Retrievals: Orographic Effects in the Wake of Macquarie Island

Abstract Visible/infrared imagery from passive satellites is commonly relied upon to study low cloud microphysics over oceanic regions, including for the Southern Ocean (SO), but relatively little validation has been undertaken for the SO. In this article, we compare low‐cloud effective radius ( r e ), cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and cloud liquid water path (LWP) retrievals from the NASA Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with surface measurements collected during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE). MODIS 3.7‐μm band retrievals show little bias and moderately good correlation relative to MICRE retrievals for liquid‐phase low clouds when restricted to Solar Zenith Angles <65° on spatial scales of 50–100 km. However, the low overall bias in 3.7‐μm band effective radius ( r e 3.7 ) retrievals partly results from cancellation of errors: r e 3.7 is overestimated for non‐to‐lightly precipitating clouds, and underestimated for heavier drizzling clouds by ∼1–1.5 μm. 1.6‐μm and 2.1‐μm band r e retrievals are biased high. N d may likewise be slightly under‐ or overestimated depending on the concentration, but there is insufficient data to provide confidence in this result. Interestingly, a composite of MODIS retrievals from 2002 to 2020 show a distinct region of enhanced cloud cover and N d (and lower r e ) in the wake of Macquarie Island associated with orographic cloud formation. MODIS retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom Exponent (AE) upwind and downwind of the island do not differ significantly. Comparison with MICRE measurements suggests that MODIS Collection 6 AOD retrievals are reasonable, while AE is problematically large.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summer Convective Precipitation Changes Over the Great Lakes Region Under a Warming Scenario

To understand future summer precipitation changes over the Great Lakes Region (GLR), we performed an ensemble of regional climate simulations through the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach. We found that different types of convective precipitation respond differently to the PGW signal. Isolated deep convection (IDC), usually concentrated in the southern domain, shows an increase in precipitation to the north of the GLR. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), usually concentrated upwind of the GLR, shift to the downwind region with increased precipitation. Thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition energy (CIN) are found to increase across almost the entire studied domain, creating a potential environment more favorable for stronger convection systems and less favorable for weaker ones. Meanwhile, changes in the lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC) show a strong correlation with variations in convective precipitation, highlighting the significance of these thermodynamic factors in controlling precipitation over the domain. Our results indicate that the decrease in LCL and LCF in areas with increased convective precipitation is mainly due to increased atmospheric moisture. In response to the prescribed warming perturbation, MCSs occur more frequently downwind, while localized IDCs exhibit more intense rain rates, longer durations, and larger rainfall area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observational Evidence for Wind‐Driven Low‐Pass Filtering of Infrasound at Short Range

Infrasound from controlled explosions provides a unique opportunity to isolate atmospheric effects on propagation. We report observations from two campaigns in May and October 2024, each featuring 10‐ton TNT‐equivalent controlled surface chemical explosions recorded by a dense network of 31 single‐sensor stations within 23 km. Despite identical sources, the observed wavefields were very different. October signals followed a near‐unimodal period–distance trend, whereas May signals exhibited a pronounced azimuthal bifurcation in both period and celerity. Downwind paths largely preserved the short‐period baseline observed in October, while upwind paths showed systematically longer periods caused by wind‐driven low‐pass filtering. This study provides the first direct observational evidence that tropospheric winds can impose azimuth‐dependent low‐pass filtering at local ranges, without the influence of measured temperature inversions. Thus, the structure of the atmosphere can modify the spectral characteristics of low‐frequency acoustic waves even at a distance of only a few kilometers.

Geosciences↗

Going Off Grid: A Comparative Study of the Lagrangian and Eulerian Perspectives of New Particle Formation Events

New particle formation and growth (NPF&G) is the process by which ultrafine particles are formed from gas-phase precursors. NPF&G is the dominant source of global aerosol number with important influences on climate. Most observations of NPF&G events are conducted at stationary sites; however, NPF&G observed from stationary sites is influenced by gradual or rapid changes in the air masses passing over the site, complicating NPF&G analysis. In this work, we use observations and a 3D aerosol model to compare aerosol size distributions at a stationary site (Southern Great Plains [SGP] observatory, Oklahoma, USA) and along Lagrangian trajectories crossing the site. The model simulates the NPF&G events reasonably well at SGP. Using the model to compare the Lagrangian and stationary perspectives, we can explain previously unanalyzable days with some evidence of NPF&G as either non-event or analyzable NPF&G days. We find most of the unanalyzable NPF&G days are due to isolated and inhomogeneous NPF&G occurring upwind of the stationary site, often in the outflow of urban regions. Finally, we compare formation rates of 3 nm particles, growth rates, and the survival probability of 3 nm particles growing to 25 nm between the stationary and Lagrangian perspectives. Because of the much larger number of analyzable days along the Lagrangian trajectories, this perspective potentially provides more robust statistics and better characterization of NPF&G event extremes. Our method for extracting chemical/physical properties along Lagrangian trajectories from 3D models can be applied to a wide range of science questions.

O’Donnell, Samuel E. [Colorado State Univ., Fort C↗

Oblique and rippled heliosphere structures from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer

Abstract Past analysis has shown that the heliosphere structure can be deduced from correlations between long-scale solar wind pressure evolution and energetic neutral atom emissions. However, this required spatial and temporal averaging that smoothed out small or dynamic features of the heliosphere. In late 2014, the solar wind dynamic pressure increased by roughly 50% over a period of 6 months, causing a time and directional-dependent rise in around 2–6 keV energetic neutral atom fluxes from the heliosphere observed by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer. Here, we use the 2014 pressure enhancement to provide a simultaneous derivation of the three-dimensional heliospheric termination shock (HTS) and heliopause (HP) distances at high resolution from Interstellar Boundary Explorer measurements. The analysis reveals rippled HTS and HP surfaces that are oblique with respect to the local interstellar medium upwind direction, with significant asymmetries in the heliosphere structure compared to steady-state heliosphere models. We estimate that the heliosphere boundaries contain roughly ten astronomical unit-sized spatial variations, with slightly larger variations on the HTS surface than the HP and a large-scale, southwards-directed obliquity of the surfaces in the meridional plane. Comparisons of the derived HTS and HP distances with Voyager observations indicate substantial differences in the heliosphere boundaries in the northern versus southern hemispheres and their motion over time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Drift kinetic electrostatic simulations of the edge localized mode heat pulse

In the present work, electrostatic drift kinetic simulations of parallel plasma transport within the tokamak scrape-off layer (SOL) are conducted using the COGENT code. The SOL configuration is represented in one-dimensional slab geometry, incorporating a heat source localized in the midplane. The heat source parameters correspond to those characterizing edge-localized modes observed in the Joint European Torus (JET) tokamak. The numerical model includes kinetic treatment of both ions and electrons, a simplified model for the gyrokinetic Poisson equation that allows one to step over short time scales associated with fast electrostatic shear Alfvèn waves, and the logical sheath boundary condition (LSBC) that enforces global system quasineutrality. A third-order accurate LSBC is derived to be consistent with the third-order accurate upwind advection scheme utilized in the code, and it was shown to noticeably impact the simulation results, especially parallel heat flux at the target plate. The findings of this study are in agreement with results from preceding fluid and kinetic simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Cloud microphysical response to entrainment and mixing is locally inhomogeneous and globally homogeneous: Evidence from the lab

Entrainment of dry air into clouds strongly influences cloud optical and precipitation properties and the response of clouds to aerosol perturbations. The response of cloud droplet size distributions to entrainment–mixing is examined in the Pi convection-cloud chamber that creates a turbulent, steady-state cloud. The experiments are conducted by injecting dry air with temperature (T e ) and flow rate (Q e ) through a flange in the top boundary, into the otherwise well-mixed cloud, to mimic the entrainment–mixing process. Due to the large-scale circulation, the downwind region is directly affected by entrained dry air, whereas the upwind region is representative of the background conditions. Droplet concentration (Cn) and liquid water content (L) decrease in the downwind region, but the difference in the mean diameter of droplets (D m ) is small. The shape of cloud droplet size distributions relative to the injection point is unchanged, to within statistical uncertainty, resulting in a signature of inhomogeneous mixing, as expected for droplet evaporation times small compared to mixing time scales. As T e and Q e of entrained air increase, however, Cn, L, and D m of the whole cloud system decrease, resulting in a signature of homogeneous mixing. The apparent contradiction is understood as the cloud microphysical responses to entrainment and mixing differing on local and global scales: locally inhomogeneous and globally homogeneous. This implies that global versus local sampling of clouds can lead to seemingly contradictory results for mixing, which informs the long-standing debate about the microphysical response to entrainment and the parameterization of this process for coarse-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source Characterization of Volatile Organic Compounds at Carlsbad Caverns National Park

Carlsbad Caverns National Park (CAVE), located in southeastern New Mexico, experiences elevated ground-level ozone (O 3 ) exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 70 ppbv. It is situated adjacent to the Permian Basin, one of the largest oil and gas (O&G) producing regions in the US. In 2019, the Carlsbad Caverns Air Quality Study (CarCavAQS) was conducted to examine impacts of different sources on ozone precursors, including nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Here, we use positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis of speciated VOCs to characterize VOC sources at CAVE during the study. Seven factors were identified. Three factors composed largely of alkanes and aromatics with different lifetimes were attributed to O&G development and production activities. VOCs in these factors were typical of those emitted by O&G operations. Associated residence time analyses (RTA) indicated their contributions increased in the park during periods of transport from the Permian Basin. These O&G factors were the largest contributor to VOC reactivity with hydroxyl radicals (62%). Two PMF factors were rich in photochemically generated secondary VOCs; one factor contained species with shorter atmospheric lifetimes and one with species with longer lifetimes. RTA of the secondary factors suggested impacts of O&G emissions from regions farther upwind, such as Eagle Ford Shale and Barnett Shale formations. The last two factors were attributed to alkenes likely emitted from vehicles or other combustion sources in the Permian Basin and regional background VOCs, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated floating wind farm layout design and mooring system optimization to increase annual energy production

As we cluster wind turbines in wind farms to gain energy from sites with high wind speeds, wake losses occur within the wind farm. Wake loss is a term used to describe the lower energy production of a downwind turbine that is totally or partially in the wake of an upwind turbine. To decrease wake losses inside the wind farm, the wind farm’s layout is optimized. However, a variety of factors constrain the wind farm layout optimization, such as the size of the lease area relative to the number of turbines to be placed, or the shape of the lease area. Therefore, many wind farms end up with a regular grid layout, such as the Horns Rev 1 wind farm in the North Sea. The ability of a floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) to change its position based on the wind direction and its mooring system design presents an opportunity to further decrease wake losses in floating wind farms. In this work, we integrate the design of the FOWT mooring systems with the floating wind farm layout design with the goal of increasing the farm’s annual energy production. We use the Horns Rev 1 wind farm as a case study to demonstrate our method. The results show that allowing the FOWT to relocate can decrease wake losses up to 18%. Moreover, the newly developed mooring systems are less stiff and therefore allow larger motion of the FOWT; hence, the material cost of the mooring system decreases by an estimated 17%.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NREL 15-kW: An Advanced Horizontal-Axis Reference Turbine for Distributed Wind

Distributed wind energy can play a significant role in the renewable energy landscape. A recent study conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) identified the lack of availability and utilization of reference wind turbine models as a major hindrance in the development of the distributed wind energy technology sector, even though such models are widely used in offshore and land-based wind research. Therefore, NREL is developing three reference wind turbine architectures, also called archetypes, for distributed wind energy applications. This paper describes the detailed design and modeling of the first of the three reference turbine archetypes, called the NREL 15-kW turbine. It is a passive-yaw, upwind turbine with a rated power of 15 kW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Resource Assessment for Distributed Wind Energy: An Evaluation of Best-Practice Methods in the Continental US

Current wind resources within the United States (US) indicate a potential to profitably install nearly 1,400 gigawatts of distributed wind (DW) capacity. This amount is equivalent to over half of the United States’ current energy demand from electricity, making it enough to power millions of homes and businesses and replace countless fossil fuel-based generating plants. Despite the potential growth of DW in the US, deployments are presently hindered by a lack of confidence in resource estimation methods. One potential challenge is that smaller-scale turbines, with hub heights of 40 meters or less, are disproportionately impacted by obstacles such as buildings and vegetation. These obstacles may produce complex wake effects, best modeled with high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models that are too computationally expensive to use for routine siting and resource assessment. Thus, installers today make use of heuristics and simple equations to approximate the impact of obstacles while also leveraging long-term resource data from commercial or publicly available atmospheric models. This study evaluates these historical and commonly used methods alongside new lower-order obstacle models produced from CFD simulations and measurement-based bias correction. The preliminary results from this study show the importance of taking care in the choice and application of mesoscale atmospheric models and the significant value of bias correction using measurements from nearby meteorological towers. Detailed obstacle modeling provides only modest additional gains in performance and, in some cases, can add error, especially at sites where turbines have already been located to avoid obvious impact from upwind obstacles. These findings reinforce the importance of collecting in situ measurements and suggest that obstacle models may be better applied in practice to automated or computer-aided siting, rather than in economic wind resource assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An evaluation of air quality in major urban areas of India

Rapid economic growth and burgeoning population have contributed to enhanced levels of PM 2.5 concentrations in urban regions of India. Evaluation of ambient air quality facilitates the assessment of effectiveness of emission control measures and early identification of new sources. This study provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of PM 2.5 concentrations in key urban areas across India, including Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, and several regional centers. Data from 2017 to 2023 was analyzed using trend analysis, cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and geostatistical interpolation to understand spatiotemporal variations and sources. The analysis reveals significant differences in spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations with high annual averages in urban regions in Indo-Gangetic plain (82–123 μg m −3 ) and relatively lower concentrations (29–46 μg m −3 ) in southern urban areas of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Delhi state had the highest 24-averaged PM 2.5 concentrations (112 μg m −3 ) followed by urban regions in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal (94 μg m −3 ). Trend analysis from 2017 to 2023 revealed an overall 2.5% decline in site-wide PM2.5 concentrations, with the exception of Ludhiana, which exhibited a consistent annual increase of 10%. Principal component analysis (PCA) attributes 30% of the variance to wintertime emissions, 13% to biomass burning, and 18% to the regional haze in the northern Indo-Gangetic Plain. Different analyses clearly demonstrates the contribution of biomass burning to pollution in Delhi and surrounding cities. Transboundary pollution to Kolkata is likely from the highly polluted region in Indo-Gangetic Plain. Coastal cities of Mumbai and Chennai has relatively lower pollution attributed to the influence of sea breeze dilution, with mostly local contribution and some potential transport from upwind industry clusters. Hyderabad also has local contribution due to high density of vehicular traffic and local small industries. This study shows that mitigation efforts targeting clusters of regions should be undertaken to curb the high PM2.5 pollution. Policy measures should be implemented both at local and the intra-state level to address shared sources and transport of pollution.

Hysplitbacktrajectories↗

Interface learning of multiphysics and multiscale systems

Complex natural or engineered systems comprise multiple characteristic scales, multiple spatiotemporal domains, and even multiple physical closure laws. To address such challenges, we introduce an interface learning paradigm and put forth a data-driven closure approach based on memory embedding to provide physically correct boundary conditions at the interface. To enable the interface learning for hyperbolic systems by considering the domain of influence and wave structures into account, we put forth the concept of upwind learning toward a physics-informed domain decomposition. The promise of the proposed approach is shown for a set of canonical illustrative problems. Here, we highlight that high-performance computing environments can benefit from this methodology to reduce communication costs among processing units in emerging machine-learning-ready heterogeneous platforms toward exascale era.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data Center Waste Heat as an Emerging Urban Thermal Hazard: First Field Measurements of Neighborhood-Scale Air Temperature Impacts

Data centers are among the fastest-growing sources of concentrated anthropogenic heat in urban environments. Despite heat flux densities that exceed peak solar irradiance by a factor of 2–6, their thermal impacts on adjacent communities have never been directly measured or reported in the peer-reviewed literature. This short communication addresses that gap by presenting the first vehicle-based traverse measurements of air temperature in residential neighborhoods downwind of operational data centers. Five traverses at four facilities in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area, ranging from a 36 MW single-building data center in Mesa to a 169 MW colocation campus in Chandler, reveal downwind air temperature warming as high as 2.2 °C, with average downwind air temperatures 0.7–0.9 °C warmer than corresponding upwind areas. Thermal signatures were detectable at distances up to 500 m from facility perimeters. The 36 MW Mesa facility rejects waste heat equivalent to the electricity consumption of approximately 40,000 households, while the 169 MW Chandler campus is equivalent to over 180,000 households, both concentrated into footprints smaller than a single residential subdivision. With U.S. data center capacity projected to more than double by 2030, these findings establish data center anthropogenic waste heat as a previously undocumented urban thermal hazard demanding attention from the data center and urban planning communities.

Phoenix↗