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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Volume changes upon heating of aerosol particles from biomass burning using transmission electron microscopy

The responses of aerosol particles to heating are important for measurements of their chemical, physical, and optical properties, classification, and determination of origin. However, the thermal behavior of organic aerosol particles is largely unknown. We provide a method to analyze such thermal behavior through heating from room temperature to >600°C by using a heating holder within a transmission electron microscope (TEM). Here we describe in-situ shape and size changes and variations in the compositions of individual particles before and after heating. We use ambient samples from wildland and agricultural biomass fires in North America collected during the 2013 Biomass Burn Observation Project (BBOP). The results indicate that individual tar balls (TB; spherical organic material) from biomass burning retained, on average, up to 30% of their volume when heated to 600°C. Chemical analysis reveals that K and Na remain in the residues, whereas S and O were lost. In contrast to bulk sample measurements of carbonaceous particles using thermal/optical carbon analyzers, our single-particle results imply that many individual organic particles consist of multiple types of organic matter having different thermal stabilities. Beyond TBs, our results suggest that because of their thermal stability some organic particles may not be detectable by using aerosol mass spectrometry or thermal/optical carbon analyzers. This result can lead to an underestimate of the abundance of TBs and other organic particles, and therefore biomass burning may have more influence than currently recognized in regional and global climate models.

Adachi, Kouji↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of space charge effects in the MicroBooNE LArTPC using cosmic muons

Large liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs), especially those operating near the surface, are susceptible to space charge effects. In the context of LArTPCs, the space charge effect is the build-up of slow-moving positive ions in the detector primarily due to ionization from cosmic rays, leading to a distortion of the electric field within the detector. This effect leads to a displacement in the reconstructed position of signal ionization electrons in LArTPC detectors ("spatial distortions"), as well as to variations in the amount of electron-ion recombination experienced by ionization throughout the volume of the TPC. We present techniques that can be used to measure and correct for space charge effects in large LArTPCs by making use of cosmic muons, including the use of track pairs to unambiguously pin down spatial distortions in three dimensions. Finally, the performance of these calibration techniques are studied using both Monte Carlo simulation and MicroBooNE data, utilizing a UV laser system as a means to estimate the systematic bias associated with the calibration methodology.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reproduction drives changes in space use and habitat selection in a highly adaptable invasive mammal

Abstract For ungulates, it is not well understood how the interaction between habitat and reproduction affects movement behavior, space use, and habitat selection. We used known parturition (farrowing) data to validate First Passage Time (FPT) movement analysis to identify wild pig (Sus scrofa) parturition events from data collected with GPS collars. We examined home range and habitat selection during three physiologically distinct time periods in the reproductive cycle: late-gestation; farrowing; and neonate-care period. Sows exhibited a behavioral change 1-2 days prior to farrowing, suggesting FPT analysis can reliably identify parturition events for wide-ranging species that have a focused birthing area. Home range was smallest during the farrowing period, likely reflective of nest building, parturition, and protection of neonates. Home range size during the neonate-care period was intermediate between the late-gestation and farrowing periods, indicative of offspring care that may restrict maternal movement. Across all periods, sows avoided developed areas that have sparse canopy and ground cover and are associated with human activities. During late-gestation, sows avoided pine forests that have an open understory and less vegetative cover. During late-gestation and neonate-care, sows selected bottomland hardwood forests, habitat associated with ample food, cover, and water. During farrowing and neonate-care periods, sows selected upland hardwood forests, habitat with high quality food and cover for neonates. The physiological requirements of reproduction drive female habitat selection and spatial scale of movement patterns associated with parturition. Our study contributes to delineation of the appropriate scale at which to analyze movement data to provide insight about where individuals chose to place their home range, how much space to use, and how they use resources on the landscape to maximize reproductive success and fitness.

Zoology↗
DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying Power Distribution System Resiliency Using Code-Based Metric

It is essential to improve the resiliency of power distribution systems (PDS) with the increase in extreme weather events, number of malicious threats and consumers’ need for higher reliability. Here, this paper provides a formal approach to evaluate the operational resiliency of PDS, and quantify the resiliency of a system using a code-based metric. A combination of steady state and dynamic simulation tools is used to determine the resiliency metric. Dynamic simulation tools help with analyzing impact of short-term events, which might affect operational resiliency in long term. A dynamic optimization algorithm for changing operating criteria to increase the sustainability of the most critical loads has been proposed. The proposed theoretical approach is validated using a simple power distribution system model and simulation results demonstrate the ability to quantify the resiliency using the proposed code-based metric. The time-dependent quantification of resiliency has been demonstrated on a test system of two connected CERTS microgrids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparisons of biomass, water use efficiency and water use strategies across five genomic groups of Populus and its hybrids

Abstract Genetic improvement and hybridization in the Populus genus have led to the development of genotypes exhibiting fast growth, high rooting ability and disease resistance. However, while large biomass production is important for bioenergy crops, efficient use of resources including water is also important in sites lacking irrigation and for maintaining ecosystem water availability. In addition, comparison of water use strategies across a range of growth rates and genetic variability can elucidate whether certain strategies are shared among the fastest growing and/or most water use efficient genotypes. We estimated tree water use throughout the second growing season via sapflow sensors of 48 genotypes from five Populus taxa; P. deltoides W. Bartram ex Marshall × P. deltoides (D × D), P. deltoides × P. maximowiczii A. Henry (D × M), P. deltoides × P. nigra L. (D × N), P. deltoides × P. trichocarpa Torr. & Gray (D × T) and P. trichocarpa × P. deltoides (T × D) and calculated average canopy stomatal conductance ( G S ). We regressed G S and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) wherein the slope of the relationship represents stomatal sensitivity to VPD. At the end of the second growing season, trees were harvested, and their dry woody biomass was used to calculate whole tree water use efficiency (WUE T ). We found that D × D and D × M genotypes exhibited differing water use strategies with D × D genotypes exhibiting high stomatal sensitivity while retaining leaves while D × M genotypes lost leaf area throughout the growing season but exhibited low stomatal sensitivity. Across measured taxa, biomass growth was positively correlated with WUE T , and genotypes representing each measured taxa except D × N and T × D had high 2‐year dry biomass of above 6 kg/tree. Overall, these data can be used to select Populus genotypes that combine high biomass growth with stomatal sensitivity and WUE T to limit the negative impacts of bioenergy plantations on ecosystem water resources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting the Dissolution Rate of Borosilicate Glasses using QSPR analysis based on molecular dynamics simulations

Quantitative Structure Property Relationship (QSPR) analysis based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations is a promising approach for establishing the composition-property relationships of glass and other materials with complex structures. A series of 20 borosilicate and boroaluminosilicate glasses have been modeled by using MD simulations with recently developed effective potentials. Short- and medium-range structures of these glasses were analyzed and, based on these structural information, QSPR analysis of the initial dissolution rate (r0) was made and compared with measured r0 at 90°C and pH 9 using various structural descriptors such as percentage of bridging oxygen species, network connectivity and average ring size. The structural descriptors, Fnet, containing energetic information such as single bond strength and other structural information were also used. It was found that overall network connectivity, average ring size and Fnet give reasonable predictions of the r0 of studied glasses, given the conditions that the glasses are homogeneous and dissolve congruently. Modifying glass compositions to account preferential release of modifiers gives a better prediction for incongruently dissolving glasses. The results were compared with our recent work of predicting glass dissolution behavior from compositions using the topological-constraints-based models.

Du, Jincheng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Describing the Mechanism of Instability Suppression Using a Central Pilot Flame With Coupled Experiments and Simulations

Pilot flames are commonly used to extend combustor operability limits and suppress combustion oscillations in low-emissions gas turbines. Combustion oscillations, a coupling between heat release rate oscillations and combustor acoustics, can arise at the operability limits of low-emissions combustors where the flame is more susceptible to perturbations. While the use of pilot flames is common in land-based gas turbine combustors, the mechanism by which they suppress instability is still unclear. In this study, we consider the impact of a central jet pilot on the stability of a swirl-stabilized flame in a variable-length, single-nozzle combustor. Previously, the pilot flame was found to suppress the instability for a range of equivalence ratios and combustor lengths. We hypothesize that combustion oscillation suppression by the pilot occurs because the pilot provides hot gases to the vortex breakdown region of the flow that recirculate and improve the static, and hence dynamic, stability of the main flame. This hypothesis is based on a series of experimental results that show that pilot efficacy is a strong function of pilot equivalence ratio but not pilot flow rate, which would indicate that the temperature of the pilot products as well as the combustion intensity of the pilot flame play more of a role in oscillation stabilization than the length of the pilot flame relative to the main flame. Further, the pilot-flame efficacy increases with pilot-flame equivalence ratio until it matches the main-flame equivalence ratio; at pilot equivalence ratios greater than the main equivalence ratio, the pilot-flame efficacy does not change significantly with pilot equivalence ratio. To understand these results, we use large-eddy simulation (LES) to provide a detailed analysis of the flow in the region of the pilot flame and the transport of radical species in the region between the main flame and pilot flame. Furthermore, the simulation, using a flamelet/progress variable-based chemistry tabulation approach and standard eddy viscosity/diffusivity turbulence closure models, provides detailed information that is inaccessible through experimental measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Extraction of Tumor Site from Cancer Pathology Reports using Deep Filters

Purpose: Pathology reports are the primary source of information concerning the millions of cancer cases across the United States. Cancer registries manually process the pathology reports to extract the pertinent information including primary tumor site, behavior, histology, laterality, and grade. Processing a large volume of the pathology reports in a timely manner is a continuing challenge for cancer registries. The purpose of this study is to develop an information extraction pipeline to reliably and efficiently extract reportable information. Method: We have developed a novel inverse-regression (IR) based information extraction pipeline. The inverse-regression based supervised filter has been successfully applied to many application domains. However, its application to the information extraction from unstructured text is hindered primarily by the extreme high-dimensionality of n-gram representations of text. In this study, we attempt to overcome the obstacles by a novel bootstrapping strategy. First, we use an information-theoretic mutual information based filter to discard the excessive and redundant n-gram features. This step reduces the size and improves the condition number of the sample covariance matrix, thus reducing the computational cost and improving the numerical stability of the subsequent inverse-regression step. Then we use localized sliced inverse-regression (LSIR) to learn a low-dimensional discriminatory subspace for information inference. In particular, we use the k-nearest neighbors of an unlabeled pathology report in the learned representation to infer the desired information from the labeled data in a supervised manner. Results: The experiments were conducted on a set of de-identified pathology reports with human expert labels as the ground truth. Our pipeline consistently performed better than or comparable to the best performing state-of-the-art methods while reducing the training and inference times substantially. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate the potential of inverse-regression based information extraction pipeline for reliable and efficient information extraction from unstructured text. The information extracted from the pathology reports can be used along with clinical information, medical imaging, and genomic information to instigate discoveries in cancer research.

Dubey, Abhishek↗
DOE OSTI2021

Demonstration of Electrochemically-Driven CO 2 Separation Using Hydroxide Exchange Membranes

Hydroxide exchange membrane fuel cells (HEMFCs) are a potentially lower-cost hydrogen fuel cell technology; however, ambient levels of CO 2 in air significantly reduce HEMFCs’ performance. In this work, we demonstrate an electrochemically-driven CO 2 separator (EDCS) which can be used to remove ambient levels of CO 2 from air upstream of the HEMFC stack in fuel cell vehicles, protecting it from CO 2 -related performance losses. The EDCS operating window was explored for current density, anode flow, and cathode flow with respect to its impact on CO 2 separation performance. Additionally, gas-phase mass transport was improved by selecting flow fields and gas diffusion layers conducive to the EDCS operating regime. The use of a carbon-ionomer interlayer at the cathode was explored and improved CO 2 removal performance from 77.7% to 98.2% at 20 mA cm −2 . An analytical, 1-D model is used to explain the experimental observations and design improvements. A single-cell, 25 cm 2 EDCS using the aforementioned improved design demonstrated greater than 98% CO 2 removal at a cathode flow rate of 1300 sccm for 100 h with 2.7% hydrogen stack consumption.

Matz, Stephanie↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Median Point in Keeling Plot to Reduce the Uncertainty of the Isotopic Composition of Evapotranspiration

Abstract The isotopic composition of evapotranspirationδ ET is a crucial parameter in isotope-based evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning and moisture recycling studies. The Keeling plot method is the most prevalent method to calculateδ ET , though it contains large extrapolated uncertainties from the least squares regression. Traditional Keeling regression uses the mean point of individual measurements. Here, a modified Keeling plot framework was proposed using the median point of individual measurements. We tested theδ ET uncertainty using the mean point [σ ET (mean)] and median point [σ ET (median)]. Multiple resolutions of input and output data from six independent sites were used to test the performance of the two methods. Theσ ET (mean) would be greater thanσ ET (median) when the mean value of inverse vapor concentration () is greater than the median value of inverse vapor concentration []. When applying the filter ofr 2 > 0.8, around 70% ofσ ET (mean) was greater thanσ ET (median). This phenomenon might be due to the normality of the vapor concentrationC υ producing the asymmetric distribution of 1/C υ . The median method could perform significantly better than the mean method when inputting high-resolution measurements (e.g., 1 Hz) and when the water vapor concentrationC υ is relatively low. Compared to the mean method, applying the median method could on average reduce 6.88% of ET partitioning uncertainties and could on average reduce 9.00% of moisture recycling uncertainties. This study provided a new insight of the Keeling plot method and emphasized handling model output uncertainty from multiple perspectives instead of only from input parameters.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating isoprenol production using the IPP-bypass pathway in the oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides

Background To strengthen the national energy supply, there is an increasing demand for domestically generated aviation fuels. Bio-derived advanced aviation fuels offer the opportunity to meet this domestic need while presenting a unique opportunity to investigate the production of novel aviation fuels. Isoprenol, a chemical precursor to such novel fuels, has been shown to be a biologically producible compound in model organisms, but its bio-producibility needs to be further explored in organisms more compatible with industrial bioproduction. Results In this work, we evaluate isoprenol production using the promising bioproduction yeast, Rhodosporidium toruloides. First, we show successful isoprenol production using the IPP-bypass pathways most successful in laboratory strains of E. coli and S. cerevisiae. Next, we demonstrate that increased flux through the mevalonate pathway only modestly increases isoprenol titers. Using proteomics, we identified a potential bottleneck in production at the final step in the IPP-bypass pathway and explored alternative enzymes for this step. Finally, the top three strains of R. toruloides were evaluated in sorghum hydrolysates generated using cholinium lysinate. Through this work, 93.1 mg/L of isoprenol was produced in mock medium and 27.3 mg/L in sorghum hydrolysates. Conclusion Together these results lay the foundation for future work for the production of isoprenol from bioproduction crops.

Advanced aviation fuel↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and Scripts Associated with "Modeling Ecohydrological Responses of Vegetation to Urban Microclimates Using the E3SM Land Model"

This dataset supports the study of vegetation ecohydrological responses to urban microclimates using the land component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM) at four urban sites in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. It includes the model inputs, simulation outputs, and associated scripts for running ELM simulations and analyzing the resulting data. The Model_Inputs folder includes static surface data, satellite-derived phenology (i.e., leaf area index), and atmospheric forcing data used to drive ELM simulations. Detailed descriptions of these datasets are provided in Section 2.3.2 of the associated manuscript. The Model_Outputs folder contains simulation results for the baseline, treatment, and ensemble experiments. Outputs from the baseline and treatment simulations are provided as raw ELM NetCDF files. Because the raw outputs from the 4,000-member ensemble are prohibitively large, the ensemble results are provided as summarized CSV files, which also serve as the source data for Figure 5 of the associated manuscript. The Scripts folder contains three components: E3SM, the core codebase of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM); elm-olmt, the Offline Land Model Testbed (OLMT) used to perform the simulations; and knoxville_elm, which contains the analysis scripts used to process model outputs and generate the figures and results presented in the associated manuscript. Additional information is provided in Scripts_readme.txt within the Scripts directory.

Lu, Xiaoman [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306698780)↗
DOE OSTI2019

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps

States and utilities are developing increasingly ambitious energy goals. Part of the solution to meeting these goals is improving electric grid flexibility. This includes shifting electric demand to align with grid needs. Thus, identifying and using building energy efficiency and other distributed energy resources to produce the highest grid value requires highly resolved, accurate and accessible electricity end-use load profiles (EULPs). EULPs quantify how and when energy is used. Currently, few accurate and accessible end-use load profiles are available for utilities, public utility commissions, state energy offices and other stakeholders to use to prioritize investment and value energy efficiency, demand response, distributed generation and energy storage. High-quality EULPs are also critical for determining the time-sensitive value of efficiency and other distributed energy resources, and the widespread adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs).For example, EULPs can be used to accurately forecast energy savings in buildings or identify energy activities that can be shifted to different times of the day. This report serves as the first-year deliverable for a multiyear U.S. Department of Energy-funded project, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock, that intends to produce a set of highly resolved EULPs of the U.S. residential and commercial building stock. The project team, made up of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Argonne National Laboratory, ultimately will use calibrated physics-based building energy models to create these EULPs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use Attainability Analysis Aquatic Life Uses for Perennial Reach of Sandia Canyon [Slides]

The following information will be presented during the February 23, 2022 Accord Pueblos Technical Meeting. The purpose of the study is to determine if natural thermal conditions are preventing the attainment of Coldwater Aquatic Life Use in the perennial reach of the upper Sandia Canyon Assessment Unit (Sandia AU). The New Mexico Water Quality Standards allow for a change in the designated use if a Use Attainability Analysis (UAA) demonstrates that the use is not attainable due to one or more of six factors listed in 40 CFR 131.10(g), including naturally occurring pollutant concentrations. The Sandia AU is located in a perennial reach of upper Sandia Canyon between Sigma Canyon and NPDES Outfall 001. The classified Segment 20.6.4.126 NMAC comprises perennial waters within Los Alamos National Laboratory boundaries and includes the Sandia AU. Persistent surface flows originate from NPDES permitted effluent releases. These releases have occurred since the early 1950’s and continue today. The UAA examines several lines of evidence. NMED’s Air-Water Temperature Correlation (AWTC) model is used for identifying appropriate stream classifications and attainable aquatic life use subcategories. The model correlates between July average air temperatures (ATEMP) and maximum weekly average stream temperatures. Air temperatures are obtained from PRISM and LANL Meteorological Towers and used to derive ATEMP. Thermographs were placed in the Sandia AU to obtain measured stream temperatures during summer months when stream temperatures are the highest. Measured data is used with AWTC modeled data to determine if the Sandia AU is meeting its natural air temperature driven thermal condition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

It takes a village: using a crowdsourced approach to investigate organic matter composition in global rivers through the lens of ecological theory

Though community-based scientific approaches are becoming more common, many scientific efforts are conducted by small groups of researchers that together develop a concept, analyze data, and interpret results that ultimately translate into a publication. Here, we present a community effort that breaks these traditional boundaries of the publication process by engaging the scientific community from initial hypothesis generation to final publication. We leverage community-generated data from the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) consortium to study organic matter composition through the lens of ecological theory. This community endeavor will use a suite of paired physical and chemical datasets collected from 97 river corridors across the globe. With our first step aimed at ideation, we engaged a community of scientists from 20 countries and 60 institutions, spanning disciplines and career stages by holding a virtual workshop (April 2021). In the workshop, participants generated content for questions, hypotheses, and proposed analyses based on the WHONDRS dataset. These ideation efforts resulted in several narratives investigating different questions led by different teams, which will be the basis for research articles in a Frontiers in Water collection. Currently, the community is collectively analyzing, interpreting, and synthesizing these data that will result in seven crowdsourced articles using a single, existing WHONDRS dataset. The use of a shared dataset across articles not only lowers barriers for broad participation by not requiring generation of new data, but also provides unique opportunities for emergent learning by connecting outcomes across studies. Here we will explain methods used to enable this community endeavor aimed to promote a greater diversity of thinking on river corridor biogeochemistry through community science.

Borton, Mikayla A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metadata Schemas and Ontologies for Building Energy Applications: A Critical Review and Use Case Analysis

With the increasing digitalization of processes throughout the lifecycle of buildings, data exchanged between stakeholders and between building systems has grown significantly. However, a lack of semantic interoperability between data in different systems is still prevalent, hindering the development of applications that can be reused across buildings and limiting the scalability of innovative solutions. Semantics refers to the description of the meaning of the data in a way that can be consistently understood by applications. Recently, several competing initiatives have been developing metadata schemas and ontologies to express this semantic information for different applications in the building domain. This paper systematically reviews these schemas and conducts an analysis of five of them to evaluate their applicability to three high-value use cases for building operations: energy audits, automated fault detection and diagnostics and optimal control. The survey finds 40 schemas published in the last 10 years but but their actual use in industry is difficult to estimate. Among the five selected ontologies, several gaps are highlighted in relation to the three use cases. Recommendations for the future include better harmonization of these initiatives, more centralized repositories and search engines for these schemas as well as better industry engagement to facilitate their adoption.

Smart Building, Sematic, Metadata, Ontology, Data ↗
DOE OSTI2020

First Cosmology Results using Supernovae Ia from the Dark Energy Survey: Survey Overview, Performance, and Supernova Spectroscopy

We present details on the observing strategy, data-processing techniques, and spectroscopic targeting algorithms for the first three years of operation for the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN). This five-year program using the Dark Energy Camera mounted on the 4 m Blanco telescope in Chile was designed to discover and follow supernovae (SNe) Ia over a wide redshift range (0.05 < z < 1.2) to measure the equation-of-state parameter of dark energy. We describe the SN program in full: strategy, observations, data reduction, spectroscopic follow-up observations, and classification. From three seasons of data, we have discovered 12,015 likely SNe, 308 of which have been spectroscopically confirmed, including 251 SNe Ia over a redshift range of 0.017 < z < 0.85. We determine the effective spectroscopic selection function for our sample and use it to investigate the redshift-dependent bias on the distance moduli of SNe Ia we have classified. The data presented here are used for the first cosmology analysis by DES-SN (“DES-SN3YR”), the results of which are given in Dark Energy Survey Collaboration et al. The 489 spectra that are used to define the DES-SN3YR sample are publicly available at https://des.ncsa.illinois.edu/releases/sn.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗