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85 records · Page 5

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Integration of the Biot–Gassmann Fluid Substitution Method and Machine Learning-Based Velocity–Stress Relationship for Estimating In Situ Stresses

Recent advancements have shown that in situ stresses can be reliably estimated through an integrated machine/deep learning (ML/DL)-based framework, which relies on models trained and validated using true triaxial ultrasonic velocity (TUV) experimental data that involve measurements of ultrasonic velocity in saturated rocks under varying stress configurations. However, when the goal is to interpret lower frequency measurements, it may be more appropriate to run experiments on dry rocks and then obtain Biot–Gassmann-derived equivalent saturated velocities (low-frequency approximation) and employ these quantities for training ML/DL models to predict in situ stress. Whether the dispersion effect of frequency on the velocity–stress relationship substantially impacts in situ stress prediction is an important and unresolved question. This work presents an enhancement of ML/DL-based workflow by training and implementing ML/DL models using equivalent saturated acoustic velocities (low-frequency) obtained by applying Biot–Gassmann fluid substitution on the ultrasonic velocities of dry cores. The models were trained on TUV data sets derived from three subsurface cores extracted from the geothermal well 16B(78)-32 at the Utah FORGE site. Each core was subjected to 75 unique stress configurations for velocity measurement in the dry state. The ML/DL trained on the TUV data set with equivalent saturated velocities demonstrated promising performance to predict in situ stress in subsurface geological rocks using velocity–stress relationships with R 2 of 0.86, 0.971, and 0.975 and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.59, 1.92, and 1.80 for validation/testing phases of vertical, minimum horizontal, and maximum horizontal stress models, respectively. Additionally, interpretation and explanation by Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis further improved scientific validation and model reliability for estimating in situ stresses.

colloids↗

Fault Slip and Fluid Flow: Seismic Source Analysis to Assess Role of Multiple Slip Patches in Fault Permeability

The relationship between fault reactivation, microearthquakes (MEQs), and permeability evolution during fluid injection plays a critical role in energy harvesting and waste disposal. Recent studies have demonstrated the possibility of predicting fault permeability using cumulative seismic moments of MEQs quantitatively. To understand the underlying physical processes, we conduct fault reactivation experiments using Utah FORGE granitoid and analyze acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during stepwise increases in fluid injection pressure. Frequency analysis of thousands of calibrated AE signals reveals that fault reactivation produces multiple AE source patches with millimeter-scale radii—smaller than the sample fault radius. The cumulative area of the reactivated patches covers the fault multiple times over (∼10x–50x area) for each pressure step. These findings provide mechanistic insight that measured permeability enhancement is not driven by a single large slip event, but by the sequential and interacting activation of multiple slip patches that create a continuous flow pathway.

Nurshal, M. E. M. [Pennsylvania State University, ↗

GEOS-DEV/FORGE

This dataset is a repository that provides the input deck for numerical models associated with two Utah FORGE research projects: "Closing the Loop Between In situ Stress Complexity and EGS Fracture Compexity" (Project Number: 2-2446) and "Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior" (Project Number: 5-2428). Three kinds of simulation decks are included: (i) hydraulic fracturing simulation (HydroFrac folder), (ii) phase-field simulation (PhaseField folder), and (iii) thermo-hydro-mechanical simulation (ThermoHydroMech folder).

Cusini, Matteo [Lawrence Livermore National Labora↗

5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modeling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better predict/mitigate seismic hazard at EGS sites. Our novel approach couples 3D physics-based earthquake simulations with THMC models (THMc+E). This capability will enable improve engineering decisions at Utah-FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. For example, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite of flow rates and under uncertainty, thus enabling evaluation of optimal circulation strategy. Laboratory experiments will be performed to constrain key model parameters and Bayesian techniques will provide a probabilistic evaluation of parameters used in models. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

5-2428: Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior [Slides]

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better integrate friction constitutive laws for faults to improve our ability to predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites. We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, using lab measurements of friction parameters, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. These simulations will enable exploration of various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Connecting In Situ Stress and Wellbore Deviation to Near-Well Fracture Complexity Using Phase-Field Simulations

The interactions among in situ stress, rock fabric, wellbore geometry, natural fractures, and other natural or man-made defects create highly complex fracture trajectories in the near-wellbore region, far more intricate than those in the far-field. These near-wellbore complexities are critical for the Utah FORGE project and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) in general. Frictional pressure loss in the near-wellbore region during stimulation can significantly influence the growth of far-field fractures, while pressure losses during circulation serve as a major source of energy dissipation. Near-wellbore fracture complexities are often observable through image logs, offering valuable insights into in situ stress characteristics. However, leveraging this information requires a high-fidelity model capable of capturing the interplay among the diverse factors influencing fracture behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Final Report for Closing the Loop Between In Situ Stress Complexity and EGS Fracture Complexity

Characterizing in situ stress is essential in Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) for both risk assessment and operation design. Standard stress measurement techniques such as diagnostic fracture injection tests (DFITs) require creating hydraulic fractures and apply analytical methods such as the G -function analysis to estimate the stress. These classical approaches rely on several assumptions, including but not limited to: (i) the induced fracture is planar and persistent, and (ii) the fracture plane is normal to the minimum horizontal stress. However, these assumptions may not hold in EGS environments like Utah FORGE, where thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) coupling, wellbore deviation, and rock heterogeneity can alter the local stress condition and consequently lead to fracture complexities in both near-well and far-field regions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior (Final Technical Report)

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) produce clean energy by circulating fluid through hot rock deep underground and bringing that heat to the surface to generate electricity. For this process to work reliably, fluids must be able to move efficiently through networks of natural or engineered fractures in the rock. Enhancing and maintaining subsurface permeability over time is essential for sustainable energy production. However, fluid injection changes the underground temperature, pressure, rock stress, and chemistry, which can alter permeability and sometimes trigger earthquakes. Predicting these interconnected processes remains a key challenge. To address this, we combined high-temperature laboratory experiments with high-fidelity simulations to better understand how fractures in geothermal reservoirs evolve over time. Our experiments measured how fractures respond to stress, slip, slip rate, and chemical reactions under geothermal conditions. These data were integrated into coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical and earthquake (THMC+E) models tailored to the Utah FORGE site. The validated modeling framework improves predictions of reservoir performance and seismic response and helps guide operational decisions. This work reduces technical risk and strengthens the scientific foundation needed to make geothermal energy a reliable and scalable clean energy resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Physics-Based Limiter Redesign and Bit Performance Analysis at The Geysers

As part of a U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Office funding opportunity, Geysers Power Company, LLC (GPC), an indirect subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, partnered with Sandia National Labs, EGI at the University of Utah, and Texas A&M University to demonstrate increased drilling performance at The Geysers Geothermal Field. The performance target in the drilling demonstrations is at least a 25% improvement in rates of penetration, with increased footage on bottom for each bit coupled with increased bit life and time drilling. The project leverages advances in oil and gas drilling technologies including PDC bits, along with the physics-based limiter redesign techniques championed in drilling demonstrations conducted at the Utah FORGE geothermal site. The planned drilling demonstrations are being conducted as part of an existing drilling campaign intended to enhance reservoir utilization. The wells are typically drilled to the top of the reservoir with mud and then air-drilled to total depth (TD) through fractured zones at temperatures ≥ 450°F. A major goal of the project is to assess the effectiveness of implementing mechanical specific energy (MSE) and drilling dysfunction diagnosis and remediation in these challenging environments, as well as alternate rock reduction technologies. The first demonstration well has been completed, with 15 PDC bit runs in the 17.5”, 12.25” and 8.5” sections. Initial analysis shows ROP gains in all three sections, especially in the 17.5” and 12.25” sections, compared with conventional roller cone bit runs in the demonstration well and offset wells. However, in the 8.5” hole, wear and damage to the PDC bits resulted in relatively short bit runs. Analysis is underway to take advantage of the positive results and remediate the challenges. This paper provides updates on drilling activities conducted since the Phase 1 demonstration well at GDC-36 which was drilled from November 2023-January 2024. Additional analysis of the bit performance has been conducted. Furthermore, in subsequent wells drilled by GPC, PDC bits have been used extensively, building on the gains realized at GDC-36. GPC has continued to work with bit vendors to identify designs that last longer in the harsh, air-drilled 8.5” portions of the wells. Planning for the Phase 2 demonstration at Prati-44 is ongoing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai'i

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy's Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company's GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

building cooling↗

2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update: Preprint

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy’s Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company’s GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗