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Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Field Validation of a Pilot-scale Black Liquor Membrane for Water Removal at Ahlstrom-Munksjö Paper Mill in Mosinee, WI

Project Background: The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions towards accelerating commercialization and deployment. Pulp and paper is considered one of the most energy-intensive industries in the manufacturing sector. There are several methodologies for converting wood into pulp in the paper-making industry. The kraft process is a chemical method for producing wood pulp. The kraft process generates black liquor as a byproduct of pulp production. Traditionally, water is evaporated from the liquor by a set of multi-effect evaporators (MEEs), which concentrate weak black liquor (WBL) into strong black liquor (SBL) to support efficient combustion in a recovery boiler. Concentrating black liquor is an energy-intensive step in recovering pulping chemicals and generating high-pressure steam from dissolved wood solids. About 7% of pulp and paper energy usage, or nearly 164 trillion Btu, is used to remove water from black liquor in U.S. kraft pulp mills per year. The U.S. DOE’s IEDO is interested in the black liquor membrane technology evaluated in this report because it offers the potential for a more energy-efficient and less carbon-intensive kraft pulping process across 99 kraft pulp mills in 24 states (Agenda 2020 Technology Alliance 2016). This ITV project validates an innovative black liquor membrane technology for kraft pulp mills to understand its impact and benefits. Via Separations is a technology vendor that developed a graphene oxide membrane system to remove water from WBL before entering the evaporator set. High-pressure positive displacement (HPR) pumps move the black liquor through membranes that separate water and create a more concentrated black liquor. The vendor claims their pre-commercial technology reduces evaporator steam consumption by dewatering WBL before entering the evaporators. They also claim their technology has non-energy benefits such as enhanced soap collection and improved pulp throughput. This evaluation focuses on validating the energy and carbon dioxide (CO 2 e) emissions benefits associated with the membrane system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Field Validation of Electrocoagulation Treatment for Oily Wastewater at Cleveland-Cliffs Steel Mill in Cleveland, OH

The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions towards accelerating commercialization and deployment. This initiative aims to identify, validate, and showcase new, emerging, and underutilized technologies in the industrial sector to expedite their commercialization and widespread deployment. By conducting thorough validations and demonstrating the efficacy of these technologies, the ITV program facilitates informed decision-making among industry stakeholders, contributing to the transition towards more sustainable and efficient industrial processes. This ITV demonstration involved the testing of an electrocoagulation (EC) treatment system at a steel plant in Ohio. The system was designed to treat oily wastewater generated from cold rolling operations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

SCALE 6.3 Validation: Nuclear Criticality Safety

The KENO codes have been used extensively around the world since their initial development in the 1960s. Therefore, a large number and wide range of validation reports have been generated for KENO by a variety of organizations. This section provides a synopsis of recent validation reports generated at ORNL, along with a brief list of some older validation reports generated in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Some of the oldest reports are not attributed directly to ORNL, as the Y-12 Plant (currently the Y-12 National Security Complex), the K-25 Gaseous Diffusion Plant (now the East Tennessee Technology Park), and the X-10 Site (ORNL) were operated as a single entity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

SCALE 6.3 Validation: Reactor Physics

This study was performed to validate the SCALE/Polaris v6.3.0–PARCS v3.4.2 code procedure with the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library for light-water reactor analysis by comparing the simulated results with the measured data for critical experiments and operating light-water reactors. Uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code procedure for light-water reactor physics analysis were evaluated in the validation for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity, control bank work, temperature coefficients, and pin and assembly power peaking factors. In addition, the SCALE/TRITON v6.3.1 procedure with the ENDF/B-VII.1 and VIII.0 252-group and continuous-energy cross sections was validated for non-lightwater reactors including the HTR-10 reactor, the High-Temperature Test Reactor, the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment, and the Experimental Breeder Reactor II.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

SCALE 6.3 Validation: Spent Nuclear Fuel

This report is the fifth volume in a series documenting the validation of SCALE 6.3 with ENDF/B-VII.1 libraries for nuclear criticality safety, reactor physics, radiation shielding, and spent nuclear fuel applications. This fifth volume, which focuses on validating SCALE capabilities that impact spent nuclear fuel applications, provides an update of the similar validation reported for SCALE 6.2.4.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

GADRAS-DRF Validation for Safeguards and Custom Peak Fit Enhancements

In previous years, SGTech funded enhancements to the isotopics routine in the software called Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software-Detector Response Function (GADRAS-DRF), including the addition of peak fit customization capabilities. A project was also funded that focused on implementing a peak-based model fitting routine, allowing model fitting to be performed without dependence on export-controlled cross-sections. In FY25 significant improvements were made to the custom peak fitting interface, accompanied by several validation studies within GADRAS-DRF. These studies encompassed IsotopeID performance, distributed source analysis, isotopics validation, and activity estimation. Additionally, the peak-only model fitting option was validated using an HPGe measurement of a rotating drum with line sources.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

ORNL Design Engineering Library: Validated Thermoelectric Digital Twins

Radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) serve a crucial role in supplying thermal and electrical energy for reliable and long-duration power in remote and extreme environments. The thermal energy is provided by the decay of radioisotopes and is converted into electrical energy using the steady-state thermoelectric process by exploiting the Seebeck effect. Maintaining a thermal gradient through the material is necessary to drive current production. Modern predictive multi-physics tools are able to effectively describe the complex and strongly coupled phenomena needed for accurate model-based system engineering efforts needed to develop higher performing RTGs. Experimental validation of model simulations is essential to confirm the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of predictive multiphysics tools. Validation fosters confidence among users, helps meet regulatory requirements, and contributes to the ongoing improvement of simulation techniques, ultimately leading to better, safer, and more efficient designs and processes. Validated models can then be used as digital twins and can be interrogated to understand and quantify the performance gaps between theoretical and physical systems. These insights can be used to build higher performing systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Oklo Sponsored Testing using PELICAN: System, Subchannel, and High-Fidelity Software Validation (Final CRADA Report)

Argonne National Laboratory (the Contractor), located in Lemont IL, and Oklo, Inc., (the Participant), headquartered in Santa Clara, CA, propose to enter into a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) to perform a gap analysis of thermal hydraulic data, perform prototypical fuel assembly pressure drop and cavitation model validation, generate the experimental data as well as the corresponding uncertainties for this matrix and, finally, develop the validation models with the Argonne system level code SAS4A/SASSYS-1, the Argonne subchannel analysis code DASSH, the Argonne high fidelity code Nek5000, and/or the Idaho National Laboratory code Pronghorn Subchannel. The work outlined below will significantly improve the experimental and validation database currently available for liquid metal fast reactors, thus making it a viable part of a comprehensive reactor design and licensing suite to be used by the participant.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Final Design for Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) with Lithium Absorbers to Provide Validation Benchmarks for Y-12 Electrorefining Facility

One of the main goals of the Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) project is to use existing Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) assets to create critical experiment plutonium and uranium test beds for materials important to criticality safety that have insufficient benchmark evaluations. The plutonium test bed experiments were completed in 2018 and are published in the 2020 edition of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. The uranium test bed assemblies were completed in 2023 and accepted in the 2024 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. The Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) group at Y-12 National Security Complex has identified programmatic need for validation cases for uranium electrorefining operations at Y-12. The electrorefining operation credits lithium enriched in 6 Li in addition to 35 Cl as absorbers in the design criticality safety evaluation for precluding criticality under upset conditions in the large and geometrically unfavorable electro-refiner. There is, however, inadequate experimental validation for the 6 Li absorbers. As an extension of the TEX uranium test bed, TEX-Cl critical experiments were performed with sodium chloride salt to address the 35 Cl thermal absorption as well as other validation needs at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These experiments were completed in 2024 and accepted into the 2025 ICSBEP Handbook. To continue the methodology used in TEX-Cl, TEX-Li aims to accomplish the same. The overall design of both experiments was to use commercially available, high purity, salts with polyethylene moderator and HEU plates to configure a critical assembly. Three experiments are planned for TEX-Li using encapsulated lithium carbonate (Li 2 CO 3 ), with natural 6 Li abundance. For all experiments, the highly enriched uranium (HEU) Jemima plates will be used as fissile material. Multiple layers will be stacked together with encapsulated Li 2 CO 3 alternated with polyethylene in standard configurations. Standard stacking was found to be optimal in matching the different sensitivity profiles provided by the Y-12 models. Three configurations are proposed with varying polyethylene moderation and a constant 1/4” absorber thickness. The first uses 11 layers of 5/4” polyethylene, the second uses 9 layers of 3/4” polyethylene, and the third uses 10 layers of 1/2” polyethylene. Calculations showed that some alternative forms of lithium-based materials provided slightly less-optimal sensitivity profiles when compared to lithium carbonate but come with other drawbacks. These alternatives included lithium aluminate (LiAlO 2 ), Aluminum-2050 alloy, Aluminum-8090, Aluminum-2095, lithium hydride (LiH), and lithium fluoride (LiF). Lithium aluminate and aluminum-2050 provided comparable sensitivity profiles when compared to lithium carbonate and can be used instead if lithium carbonate cannot be readily procured. After a broad material study, lithium carbonate outperformed any alternative material with a balance in affordability and workability. The assessment of experimental uncertainties of the non-absorber and absorber components was predicted to be 0.00089 and 0.00093 Δk eff , respectively. The largest uncertainties may be reduced with precision dimensional inspection of the components. Many of the parts and equipment for IER 575 have already been fabricated or procured for previous projects and therefore do not contribute significantly to the overall cost of this experiment. This includes the Jemima plates and Comet critical assembly machine, which are existing NCSP assets, as well as the aluminum platen and polyethylene reflector rings, which were fabricated and authorized for the TEX experiment involving HEU with polyethylene. Lithium carbonate containers will be procured by LANL and will be filled by LLNL. The total material costs for TEX-Li experiments are estimated to be on the order of $\$$47,400. Precision inspection, including dimensional, mass, density, and impurity, is recommended for all components for an estimated cost of $\$$12,000.

35Cl

Field Validation of Packaged RAD-AC HVAC System: Efficiency and Load Shifting via Electrochemical Regeneration of Liquid Desiccants

In this project, Mojave and SRI have demonstrated field validation and load shifting of liquid desiccant air conditioning systems with two liquid desiccant dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) air conditioner units – one employing traditional thermal desiccant regeneration and the other utilizing Mojave’s novel electrochemical desiccant regeneration technology based on Redox Assisted electrodialysis. The Redox Assisted Dehumidification Air Conditioning (RAD-AC) technology is further developed and validated in this work to demonstrate an Integrated Seasonal Moisture Removal Efficiency (ISMRE) > 5.0 kg/kWh and shifting of ≥ 10% electric load in ≤ 72 hours. Furthermore, the longevity and durability of Mojave’s liquid desiccant air conditioning technology is validated in field testing of the thermally regenerated unit, with the unit demonstrating operation with >90% uptime while experiencing an efficiency degradation of < 10% during a testing campaign of over 5400 hours.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Conformal Hierarchical Simulation-Based Inference with Local Validity

Trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty quantification is a long-standing challenge in artificial intelligence. Simulation-based inference (SBI) comprises a broad swath of approaches for estimating latent parameters with uncertainties. Although flexible neural density estimators in SBI can be remark- ably expressive capturing highly structured, high-dimensional posteriors their credible regions can be badly mis-calibrated and are often only accompanied by heuristic coverage checks. We present the first SBI framework that delivers finite-sample local valid coverage guarantees that hold in the neighborhood of each observation. Our framework can couple any off-the-shelf hierarchical SBI engine with a confor- mal Bayesian post-processing step that operates on the posterior predictive density. A kernel-weighted conformity score adapts the conformal quantile to the local geometry of the data, yielding prediction sets that are simultaneously (i) marginally calibrated, (ii) locally valid, and (iii) hierarchical, handling global and observation-specific parameters in a single pass. Through experiments on synthetic data and benchmarks from neuroscience and physics, we show that our approach attains 1 − α coverage, where prior SBI methods under- or over-cover. Our approach also maintains a competitive, credible set size with minimal computational overhead. Finally, our approach can be used to make predictions on real data and give valid credible regions modulo weight-initialization-based model mis-specification.

Trivedi, Shubhendu [Fermilab]

Dataset for ASME VVUQ Symposium Workshop on Regression of Validation Data to an Application Point

This dataset consists of a collection of Excel spreadsheets that contain output from analysis specified in the workshop. The analysis involves ASME V&V 20-style validation as well as the application of a supplement methodology for regression of validation comparison error and validation uncertainty to application points where experimental data does not exist for comparison. The simulation results and experimental data are provided by the workshop organizers and a NASA report, respectively.

Kirsch, Jared Roelof [Sandia National Laboratories

ARM Radiosondes for SNPP/JPSS Validation Field Campaign Report

This field campaign extension has been a coordinated effort involving the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility, the University of Wisconsin at Madison, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) project to validate NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture sounding products from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) instruments on board the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellite platforms. In this arrangement, funding for radiosondes and balloons was provided by the JPSS project to ARM. These radiosondes were launched coincident with NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellite overpasses at the ARM field sites at Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), North Slope Alaska (NSA), and Southern Great Plains (SGP). Combined with other ARM data, an assessment of the radiosonde data quality was performed and post-processing corrections applied. The dedicated radiosondes were integrated into the NOAA Products Validation System (NPROVS+), which collocated the radiosondes with satellite products (NOAA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA], European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites [EUMETSAT], Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite [GOES], Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate [COSMIC]) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts for use in product assessment and algorithm development. This work is a part of the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellite retrieval validation efforts and provides critical accuracy assessments of the temperature and water vapor soundings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

OC6 Phase III: Validation of Wind Turbine Aerodynamic Loading During Surge/Pitch Motion

The objective of Phase III of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project was to validate the accuracy of aerodynamic load predictions by offshore wind modeling tools for a floating offshore wind turbine as it experiences large surge-translational and pitch-rotational motion, as would occur during normal operation. The test data considered were generated at Politecnico di Milano – a wind tunnel with a robotic excitation system to emulate wave loading on the wind turbine. Testing was performed using a scaled version of the DTU 10-MW reference model, and motion was prescribed as harmonic oscillations in the surge and pitch directions, independently. A variety of models were examined in the project, performing a three-way validation between engineering-level tools, higher-fidelity tools, and measurement data from two wind tunnel experimental campaigns. The Load Cases (LC) considered in this testing are as follows: LC 1.X - Steady Wind LC 2.X - Unsteady Wind - Surge Motion LC 3.X - Unsteady Wind - Pitch Motion Details on the results of the OC6 Phase III campaign can be found in the following reference: Bergua R., et al. OC6 project Phase III: validation of the aerodynamic loading on a wind turbine rotor undergoing large motion caused by a floating support structure, Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 465–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-465-2023, 2023.

17 WIND ENERGY

Experimental Validation of Exact Burst Pressure Solutions for Thick-Walled Cylindrical Pressure Vessels

Burst pressure is one of the critical strength parameters used in the design and operation of pressure vessels because it represents the maximum pressure that a vessel can withstand before failing. Historically, the Barlow formula was used as a design base for estimating burst pressure. However, it does not consider the plastic flow response for ductile steels and is applicable only to thin-walled cylinders (i.e., the diameter to thickness ratio D/t ≥ 20). A new multiaxial plastic yield theory was developed to consider the plastic flow response, and the associated theoretical (i.e., Zhu–Leis) solution of burst pressure was obtained and has gained extensive applications in the pipeline industry because it was validated by different full-scale burst test datasets for large-diameter, thin-walled pipelines in a variety of steel grades from Grade B to X120. The Zhu–Leis flow theory of plasticity was recently extended to thick-walled pressure vessels, and the associated exact flow solution of burst pressure was obtained and is applicable to both thin and thick-walled cylindrical shells. Many full-scale burst tests are available for thin-walled line pipes in the pipeline industry, but limited pressure burst tests exist for thick-walled vessels. To validate the newly developed exact solutions of burst pressure for thick-walled cylinders, this paper conducts a series of burst pressure tests on small-diameter, thick-walled pipes. In particular, six burst tests are carried out for three thick-walled pipes in Grade B carbon steel. These pipes have a nominal diameter of 2.375 inches (60.33 mm) and three nominal wall thicknesses of 0.154, 0.218, and 0.344 inches (3.91, 5.54, and 8.74 mm), leading to D/t = 15.4, 10.9, and 6.9, respectively. With the burst test data, comparisons show that the Zhu–Leis flow solution of burst pressure matches well the burst test data for thick-walled pipes. Thus, these burst tests validate the accuracy of the Zhu–Leis flow solution of burst pressure for thick-walled cylindrical vessels.

42 ENGINEERING

Validation of the DESI DR2 Ly$\alpha$ BAO analysis using synthetic datasets

The second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), containing data from the first three years of observations, doubles the number of Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly$\alpha$) forest spectra in DR1 and it provides the largest dataset of its kind. To ensure a robust validation of the Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) analysis using Ly$\alpha$ forests, we have made significant updates compared to DR1 to both the mocks and the analysis framework used in the validation. In particular, we present CoLoRe-QL, a new set of Ly$\alpha$ mocks that use a quasi-linear input power spectrum to incorporate the non-linear broadening of the BAO peak. We have also increased the number of realisations used in the validation to 400, compared to the 150 realisations used in DR1. Finally, we present a detailed study of the impact of quasar redshift errors on the BAO measurement, and we compare different strategies to mask Damped Lyman-$\alpha$ Absorbers (DLAs) in our spectra. The BAO measurement from the Ly$\alpha$ dataset of DESI DR2 is presented in a companion publication.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

Development & Experimental Validation of a Generalized Resistance-Capacitance Model for Numerical Simulation of Phase-Change Material Embedded Heat Exchangers

Latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) using phase change material (PCM) has attracted increased attention as a viable solution for overcoming the mismatch between energy supply and demand for renewable energy-based systems. PCM-embedded heat exchangers (PCM-HX) have the potential to significantly improve thermal performance due to high storage capacity and low temperature variation during the phase change process. Most models for simulating LHTES heat transfer use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, which have high computational costs resulting from considering the complex and time-dependent physics relevant to PCM-HXs. In this paper, a Generalized Resistance Capacitance-based Model (GRCM) was developed to predict the thermal performance of arbitrary PCM-HXs in a computationally efficient manner without compromising modeling accuracy. The GRCM is exercised for three case studies: (i) verification for a single-slabbed finned PCM-HX, (ii) verification and validation for a copper foam/paraffin composite PCM-HX, and (iii) validation for a straight tube annular finned PCM-HX. The copper foam PCM-HX uses an electric heater at the top of HX, while the other two configurations utilize water as heat transfer fluid. For the single-slabbed finned PCM-HX melting case, the mean deviation in average PCM temperature predicted by the GRCM compared to the CFD model was between 0.56 – 0.73 K, with maximum temperature deviation of 2.68 K. For the HTF outlet temperature, the validation results showed that GRCM prediction matches very well with experimental data, with mean temperature deviation of 0.24 K during melting case, while for solidification case was 0.34 K. These results showcase the GRCM’s capability for accurately reproducing the thermal characteristics of PCM-HXs with considerably lower computational effort.

42 ENGINEERING