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At least 91 records · Page 5

High-Order Shock-Capturing Methods for Modeling Dynamics of the Solar Atmosphere

We use one-dimensional high-order central shock capturing numerical methods to study the response of various model solar atmospheres to forcing at the solar surface. The dynamics of the atmosphere is modeled with the Euler equations in a variable-sized flux tube in the presence of gravity. We study dynamics of the atmosphere suggestive of spicule formation and coronal oscillations. These studies are performed on observationally-derived model atmospheres above the quiet sun and above sunspots. To perform these simulations, we provide a new extension of existing second- and third- order shock-capturing methods to irregular grids. We also solve the problem of numerically maintaining initial hydrostatic balance via the introduction of new variables in the model equations and a careful initialization mechanism. We find several striking results: all model atmospheres respond to a single impulsive perturbation with several strong shock waves consistent with the rebound-shock model. These shock waves lift material and the transition region well into the initial corona, and the sensitivity of this lift to the initial impulse depends non-linearly on the details of the atmosphere model. We also reproduce an observed 3-minute coronal oscillation above sunspots compared to 5-minute oscillations above the quiet sun.

Bryson, Steve↗

System Identification and POD Method Applied to Unsteady Aerodynamics

The representation of unsteady aerodynamic flow fields in terms of global aerodynamic modes has proven to be a useful method for reducing the size of the aerodynamic model over those representations that use local variables at discrete grid points in the flow field. Eigenmodes and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) modes have been used for this purpose with good effect. This suggests that system identification models may also be used to represent the aerodynamic flow field. Implicit in the use of a systems identification technique is the notion that a relative small state space model can be useful in describing a dynamical system. The POD model is first used to show that indeed a reduced order model can be obtained from a much larger numerical aerodynamical model (the vortex lattice method is used for illustrative purposes) and the results from the POD and the system identification methods are then compared. For the example considered, the two methods are shown to give comparable results in terms of accuracy and reduced model size. The advantages and limitations of each approach are briefly discussed. Both appear promising and complementary in their characteristics.

Tang, Deman↗

Development of a time-dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes solver based on a fractional-step method

The development, validation and application of a fractional step solution method of the time-dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in generalized coordinate systems are discussed. A solution method that combines a finite-volume discretization with a novel choice of the dependent variables and a fractional step splitting to obtain accurate solutions in arbitrary geometries was previously developed for fixed-grids. In the present research effort, this solution method is extended to include more general situations, including cases with moving grids. The numerical techniques are enhanced to gain efficiency and generality.

Rosenfeld, Moshe↗

Increasing Accuracy in Computed Inviscid Boundary Conditions

A technique has been devised to increase the accuracy of computational simulations of flows of inviscid fluids by increasing the accuracy with which surface boundary conditions are represented. This technique is expected to be especially beneficial for computational aeroacoustics, wherein it enables proper accounting, not only for acoustic waves, but also for vorticity and entropy waves, at surfaces. Heretofore, inviscid nonlinear surface boundary conditions have been limited to third-order accuracy in time for stationary surfaces and to first-order accuracy in time for moving surfaces. For steady-state calculations, it may be possible to achieve higher accuracy in space, but high accuracy in time is needed for efficient simulation of multiscale unsteady flow phenomena. The present technique is the first surface treatment that provides the needed high accuracy through proper accounting of higher-order time derivatives. The present technique is founded on a method known in art as the Hermitian modified solution approximation (MESA) scheme. This is because high time accuracy at a surface depends upon, among other things, correction of the spatial cross-derivatives of flow variables, and many of these cross-derivatives are included explicitly on the computational grid in the MESA scheme. (Alternatively, a related method other than the MESA scheme could be used, as long as the method involves consistent application of the effects of the cross-derivatives.) While the mathematical derivation of the present technique is too lengthy and complex to fit within the space available for this article, the technique itself can be characterized in relatively simple terms: The technique involves correction of surface-normal spatial pressure derivatives at a boundary surface to satisfy the governing equations and the boundary conditions and thereby achieve arbitrarily high orders of time accuracy in special cases. The boundary conditions can now include a potentially infinite number of time derivatives of surface-normal velocity (consistent with no flow through the boundary) up to arbitrarily high order. The corrections for the first-order spatial derivatives of pressure are calculated by use of the first-order time derivative velocity. The corrected first-order spatial derivatives are used to calculate the second- order time derivatives of velocity, which, in turn, are used to calculate the corrections for the second-order pressure derivatives. The process as described is repeated, progressing through increasing orders of derivatives, until the desired accuracy is attained.

Dyson, Roger↗

Popnet : computer vision based deep learning model for forecasting gridded population

Here, this study introduces Popnet, a deep learning model for forecasting 1 km-gridded populations, integrating U-Net, ConvLSTM, a Spatial Autocorrelation module and deep ensemble methods. Using spatial variables and population data from 2000 to 2020, Popnet predicts South Korea’s population trends by age groups (under 14, 15-64 and over 65) up to 2040. In validation, it outperforms traditional machine learning and state-of-the-art computer vision models. The output of this model discovered significant polarisation: population growth in urban areas, especially the capital region, and severe depopulation in rural areas. Popnet is a robust tool for offering significant insights to policymakers and related stakeholders about the detailed future population, which allows them to establish detailed, localised planning and resource allocations.

computer vision↗

Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks

In climatological research, the evaluation of climate models is one of the central research subjects. As an expression of large-scale dynamical processes, global teleconnections play a major role in interannual to decadal climate variability. Their realistic representation is an indispensable requirement for the simulation of climate change, both natural and anthropogenic. Therefore, the evaluation of global teleconnections is of utmost importance when assessing the physical plausibility of climate projections. We present an application of the graph-theoretical analysis tool δ-MAPS, which constructs complex networks on the basis of spatio-temporal gridded data sets, here sea surface temperature and geopotential height at 500 hPa. Complex networks complement more traditional methods in the analysis of climate variability, like the classification of circulation regimes or empirical orthogonal functions, assuming a new non-linear perspective. While doing so, a number of technical tools and metrics, borrowed from different fields of data science, are implemented into the δ-MAPS framework in order to overcome specific challenges posed by our target problem. Those are trend empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), distance correlation and distance multicorrelation, and the structural similarity index. δ-MAPS is a two-stage algorithm. In the first place, it assembles grid cells with highly coherent temporal evolution into so-called domains. In a second step, the teleconnections between the domains are inferred by means of the non-linear distance correlation. We construct 2 unipartite and 1 bipartite network for 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections and 2 century-long coupled reanalyses (CERA-20C and 20CRv3). Potential non-stationarity is taken into account by the use of moving time windows. The networks derived from projection data are compared to those from reanalyses. Our results indicate that no single climate projection outperforms all others in every aspect of the evaluation. But there are indeed models which tend to perform better/worse in many aspects. Differences in model performance are generally low within the geopotential height unipartite networks but higher in sea surface temperature and most pronounced in the bipartite network representing the interaction between ocean and atmosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Occupant-Centric Demand Response for Thermostatically-Controlled Home Loads

Efficiently managing energy usage to balance supply and demand on the electric grid is crucial, especially with the widespread deployment of distributed variable renewable electricity generation. This paper introduces two duty-cycle control methods for heating systems, adjusting thermostat setpoints to limit and shift electricity demand. The control approaches employ innovative techniques, such as adaptive duty cycling, to prioritize household thermal comfort while reducing peak demand. These control methods can respond to signals from the electric grid, including demand targets and time-of-use tariffs, and were tested physically on an electric furnace and heat pump in a test home during winter conditions in 2021 and 2022. The results are given as average demand reductions and energy use impacts with respect to the average indoor-outdoor temperature difference during the control period. For heat pumps, demand limiting control reduced power by 18.5% and 23.3% for indoor-outdoor temperature differences of 30°F and 40°F. Preheating-based demand shifting achieved reductions of 34.8% and 33.2% for the same temperature differences. Electric furnace tests showed demand reductions of 33.8% and 25.3% for demand limiting, and 56.1% and 45.7% for preheating-based demand shifting. These findings highlight the potential for innovative control methods to enhance grid efficiency and reduce energy consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Comparison of Lagrangian Superdroplet and Eulerian Double-Moment Spectral Microphysics Schemes in Large-Eddy Simulations of an Isolated Cumulus Congestus Cloud

Abstract Advanced microphysics schemes (such as Eulerian bin and Lagrangian superdroplet) are becoming standard tools for cloud physics research and parameterization development. This study compares a double-moment bin scheme and a Lagrangian superdroplet scheme via large-eddy simulations of nonprecipitating and precipitating cumulus congestus clouds. Cloud water mixing ratio in the bin simulations is reduced compared to the Lagrangian simulations in the upper part of the cloud, likely from numerical diffusion, which is absent in the Lagrangian approach. Greater diffusion in the bin simulations is compensated by more secondary droplet activation (activation above cloud base), leading to similar or somewhat higher droplet number concentrations and smaller mean droplet radius than the Lagrangian simulations for the nonprecipitating case. The bin scheme also produces a significantly larger standard deviation of droplet radius than the superdroplet method, likely due to diffusion associated with the vertical advection of bin variables. However, the spectral width in the bin simulations is insensitive to the grid spacing between 50 and 100 m, suggesting other mechanisms may be compensating for diffusion as the grid spacing is modified. For the precipitating case, larger spectral width in the bin simulations initiates rain earlier and enhances rain development in a positive feedback loop. However, with time, rain formation in the superdroplet simulations catches up to the bin simulations. Offline calculations using the same drop size distributions in both schemes show that the different numerical methods for treating collision–coalescence also contribute to differences in rain formation. The stochastic collision–coalescence in the superdroplet method introduces more variability in drop growth for a given rain mixing ratio.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical simulation using vorticity-vector potential formulation

An accurate and efficient computational method is needed for three-dimensional incompressible viscous flows in engineering applications. On solving the turbulent shear flows directly or using the subgrid scale model, it is indispensable to resolve the small scale fluid motions as well as the large scale motions. From this point of view, the pseudo-spectral method is used so far as the computational method. However, the finite difference or the finite element methods are widely applied for computing the flow with practical importance since these methods are easily applied to the flows with complex geometric configurations. However, there exist several problems in applying the finite difference method to direct and large eddy simulations. Accuracy is one of most important problems. This point was already addressed by the present author on the direct simulations on the instability of the plane Poiseuille flow and also on the transition to turbulence. In order to obtain high efficiency, the multi-grid Poisson solver is combined with the higher-order, accurate finite difference method. The formulation method is also one of the most important problems in applying the finite difference method to the incompressible turbulent flows. The three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations have been solved so far in the primitive variables formulation. One of the major difficulties of this method is the rigorous satisfaction of the equation of continuity. In general, the staggered grid is used for the satisfaction of the solenoidal condition for the velocity field at the wall boundary. However, the velocity field satisfies the equation of continuity automatically in the vorticity-vector potential formulation. From this point of view, the vorticity-vector potential method was extended to the generalized coordinate system. In the present article, we adopt the vorticity-vector potential formulation, the generalized coordinate system, and the 4th-order accurate difference method as the computational method. We present the computational method and apply the present method to computations of flows in a square cavity at large Reynolds number in order to investigate its effectiveness.

Tokunaga, Hiroshi↗

Methods of separation of variables in turbulence theory

Two schemes of closing turbulent moment equations are proposed both of which make double correlation equations separated into single-point equations. The first is based on neglected triple correlation, leading to an equation differing from small perturbed gasdynamic equations where the separation constant appears as the frequency. Grid-produced turbulence is described in this light as time-independent, cylindrically-isotropic turbulence. Application to wall turbulence guided by a new asymptotic method for the Orr-Sommerfeld equation reveals a neutrally stable mode of essentially three dimensional nature. The second closure scheme is based on an assumption of identity of the separated variables through which triple and quadruple correlations are formed. The resulting equation adds, to its equivalent of the first scheme, an integral of nonlinear convolution in the frequency describing a role due to triple correlation of direct energy-cascading.

Tsuge, S.↗

Mapping Surface Vapor Pressure Deficits From Geostationary Satellites for Fire Weather Monitoring

The increase in the wildfires were observed globally in accordance with global warming, and to real- time monitoring of wildfire risk in broad scale is demanded for wildfire management to prevent the spread of wildfires. Scientists invented a lot of indices to assess the wildfire risk. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is one of the most important meteorological components for those indices. Compared to other components of fire weather indices, VPD can change quickly from lower risk to higher risk even in sub-hourly. Therefore, real-time fire risk monitoring requires high-resolution and high- temporal VPD spatial map. Here, we developed VPD estimation method using the GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data. Unlike the polar-orbital satellite data, the ABI can observe target region every 10 minutes, so that we can estimate VPD for fire weather in real-time. The method used to estimate VPD is same with the algorithm of NASA Earth Exchange Gridded Daily Meteorology (NEX- GDM), which estimate meteorological variables from ground weather observation and spatial variables based on random forest (RF). We calculated RF importance to select bands of ABI as input of the model. To validate our results, we compared the spatial pattern of our VPD data with the Real- Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) data over the conterminous USA. We sought possibility of applying our method to the region where no real-time high-resolution weather data is available, such as South America. The developed method can produce real-time high-resolution high-frequent VPD data in the continental scale. The derived data from GOES ABI could contribute to improve the fire weather monitoring and lead to prevent wildfires.

Hirofumi Hashimoto↗

Three Dimensional Flow and Pressure Patterns in a Hydrostatic Journal Bearing

The flow in a hydrostatic journal bearing (HJB) is described by a mathematical model that uses the three dimensional non-orthogonal form of the Navier-Stokes equations. Using the u, v, w, and p, as primary variables, a conservative formulation, finite volume multi-block method is applied through a collocated, body fitted grid. The HJB has four shallow pockets with a depth/length ratio of 0.067. This paper represents a natural extension to the two and three dimensional studies undertaken prior to this project.

Braun, M. Jack↗

Life Cycle Assessment for Closed-Loop Pumped Hydropower Energy Storage in the United States

The federal government has initiated an aggressive set of policies to achieve a net-zero carbon emission goal for the electricity sector by 2050. As a result, rapid growth in deployment of renewable energy technologies is expected. Most commercially mature technologies are temporally variable and do not provide grid inertia, while renewable technologies with high projected deployment have intermittent generation methods. Energy storage technologies are needed to both dispatch power on-demand and help provide the needed grid inertia. Pumped storage hydro (PSH) is a well-established technology that has gained renewed interest in recent years offering energy-balancing, grid stability, control of electrical network frequency, and large-scale storage capacity. For widespread adoption of PSH, more information is needed regarding its current life cycle environmental impacts. The objective of this study is to perform a full life cycle assessment (LCA) of new closed-loop PSH in the U.S. The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh of electrical power delivered to the grid and the base case project lifetime is 80 years. The life cycle inventory for this project accounts for all material and energy flows associated with the green-field construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of a closed-loop PSH plant in the U.S. Collected data represents a range of potential PSH specifications and geographic locations coming from all prospective closed-loop PSH installations in the U.S. with data available. In addition, existing PSH installations are used to provide assumptions for inventory inputs. Results presented will include the global warming potential (GWP IPCC 100a) and Energy Return on Investment (EROI) from our base case (average PSH installation) as well as from scenario analyses and model sensitivity. These results will be compared to the impacts from existing PSH sites and alternate storage technologies. Methods align with the assumptions and guidelines put in place by previous PSH LCAs to ensure an accurate comparison with the results from this report.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

The numerical solution of the Navier-Stokes equations for 3-dimensional, unsteady, incompressible flows by compact schemes

The present numerical method for the solution of unsteady, incompressible three-dimensional flow Navier-Stokes equations using velocity-vorticity variables and irregular Cartesian grids proceeds by solving: (1) equations of Cauchy-Riemann type for the velocity; and (2) transport-diffusion equations for the vorticity, whose solenoidal vorticity components are generated by a Poisson equation for an appropriate scalar potential. Iterations are used to solve the finite difference equations, facilitating the use of vector and parallel-computing methods; numerical experiments have verified the method's second-order spatial and temporal accuracy.

Gatski, T. B.↗

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Calculation of unsteady linearized Euler flows in cascades using harmonically deforming grids

A method for calculating unsteady, inviscid, compressible flows in cascades is presented. Using the linearized Euler technique, the flow is decomposed into a steady or mean flow plus a harmonically varying small disturbance flow. The equations that describe the small disturbance flow are linear variable coefficient equations, and are solved using a pseudo-time time marching Lax-Wendroff technique. Unlike previous linearized methods, however, the solution is computed on a harmonically deforming computational grid that conforms to the motion of the vibrating airfoils. The mean flow and perturbation flow solutions are defined in the deforming coordinate system rather than in a coordinate system fixed in space. Hence, no extrapolation terms are required to implement the upwash boundary conditions at the airfoil surfaces, significantly improving the accuracy of the method. For transonic flow calculations, unsteady shock motions are modelled using shock capturing. The unsteady loads due to the shock motion are then seen as pressure impulses. Representative computational results are presented for transonic channel flows and subsonic and transonic cascade flows.

Hall, Kenneth C.↗

Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates

The Indiana Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) led subtask 1.1 to assess the regional distribution and estimate the storage capacity of Ordovician-Cambrian stratigraphic units located within the partnership region. A comprehensive data set of wireline logs and petrophysical information was used to generate these interpretations. These data include core analysis for porosity and permeability, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), and existing well data including location and stratigraphic information. This report includes storage resource estimates (SREs) for three potential storage reservoirs(limestone and dolostone from the Upper Ordovician Trenton Limestone/Black River Group and equivalent units, the Middle Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone, and primary target reservoir rocks of the Lower Ordovician and Upper Cambrian Knox Supergroup and equivalent units) calculated using six methodologies: (1) a fixed value of porosity of 10 percent in all units evaluated; (2) a unique average porosity (per well) from wireline-derived porosity (neutron, sonic, and/or density porosity for each unit); (3) porosity values from core analysis; (4) a depth-dependent porosity model (Knox Supergroup only); (5) porosity based on a model based on petrophysical facies; and (6) SREs using National Energy Technology Laboratory’s CO2 Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO2-SCREEN beta V2). All methods used the same values for thickness for each unit. However, the areal extent of each assessment was limited by the data available for each method. Estimated volumes were calculated in 1-by-1 kilometer grid cells and summarized as county and total stratigraphic unit volumes. The resultant SREs mass are displayed using boxplots, which allow for comparing data statistics (mean values and variability) between methods. Differences observed in SRE results from the six methods are mainly attributable to differences in the data and conceptual models used to interpret or estimate porosity in each method. Based on this systematic variability between methods, it is inferred that methods 1, 4, and 6 are best used for regional-scale reconnaissance estimates of storage capacity while methods 2, 3, and 5 are more appropriate for local scales where more data is required. All estimates are data-density dependent and different methods require different amounts of data for reasonable assessments. ArcMap 10.5.1 software was used to portray SREs to help visualize spatial variance of estimates for each methodology, and more importantly, to highlight those areas having the greatest total storage potential estimates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

A variable high-order shock-capturing finite difference method with GP-WENO

Here, we present a new finite difference shock-capturing scheme for hyperbolic equations on static uniform grids. The method provides selectable high-order accuracy by employing a kernel-based Gaussian Process (GP) data prediction method which is an extension of the GP high-order method originally introduced in a finite volume framework by the same authors. The method interpolates Riemann states to high order, replacing the conventional polynomial interpolations with polynomial-free GP-based interpolations. For shocks and discontinuities, this GP interpolation scheme uses a nonlinear shock handling strategy similar to Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO), with a novelty consisting in the fact that nonlinear smoothness indicators are formulated in terms of the Gaussian likelihood of the local stencil data, replacing the conventional L 2 -type smoothness indicators of the original WENO method. We demonstrate that these GP-based smoothness indicators play a key role in the new algorithm, providing significant improvements in delivering high – and selectable – order accuracy in smooth flows, while successfully delivering non-oscillatory solution behavior in discontinuous flows.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗