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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
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DOE OSTI2025

Single Grid Error Estimation for Neutron Transport Solvers

The method of nearby problems (MNP) is a solution verification technique that does not require the use of multiple spatial grids. To estimate spatial discretization error without requiring a high-fidelity spatial grid, an analytical curve fit is interpolated from the numerical solution. The residual between the curve fit solution and numerical solution is calculated and added as an additional source term to the governing equation. The nearby solution is estimated using the updated source term and boundary conditions to remain consistent with the curve fit interpolation. The nearby solution can be compared to the curve fit solution as a discretization error estimation while using a single spatial grid. Without the use of higher fidelity spatial grids, the MNP is able to approximate the spatial discretization error, a facet of solution verification. The application of the method of nearby problems is presented for one- and two-dimensional neutron transport problems for both fixed source and criticality problems on the spatial variable. The fixed source results demonstrate the effectiveness of nearby problems for spatial error identification using the discrete ordinates method. Criticality results are shown to identify area of high spatial error for the C5G7 problem as well as for the discrete ordinates solver. A novel approach of combining the capabilities of Monte Carlo with the discrete ordinates nearby problems is presented for one- and two-dimensional fixed source problems. In conclusion, the MNP demonstrates its effectiveness at identifying spatial error on a single structured grid with a wide variety of neutron transport problems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Alternative mixed integer linear programming optimization for joint job scheduling and data allocation in grid computing

This paper presents a novel approach to the joint optimization of job scheduling and data allocation in grid computing environments. We formulate this joint optimization problem as a mixed integer quadratically constrained program. To tackle the nonlinearity in the constraint, we alternatively fix a subset of decision variables and optimize the remaining ones via Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). We solve the MILP problem at each iteration via an off-the-shelf MILP solver. Our experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms existing heuristic methods, employing either independent optimization or joint optimization strategies. We have also verified the generalization ability of our method over grid environments with various sizes and its high robustness to the algorithm setting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast Multigrid Reduction-in-Time for Advection via Modified Semi-Lagrangian Coarse-Grid Operators

Many iterative parallel-in-time algorithms have been shown to be highly efficient for diffusion-dominated partial differential equations (PDEs) but are inefficient or even divergent when applied to advection-dominated PDEs. We consider the application of the multigrid reduction-in-time (MGRIT) algorithm to linear advection PDEs. Here, the key to efficient time integration with this method is using a coarse-grid operator that provides a sufficiently accurate approximation to the so-called ideal coarse-grid operator. For certain classes of semi-Lagrangian discretizations, we present a novel semi-Lagrangian-based coarse-grid operator that leads to fast and scalable multilevel time integration of linear advection PDEs. The coarse-grid operator is composed of a semi-Lagrangian discretization followed by a correction term, with the correction designed so that the leading-order truncation error of the composite operator is approximately equal to that of the ideal coarse-grid operator. Parallel results show substantial speed-ups over sequential time integration for variable-wave-speed advection problems in one and two spatial dimensions, and using high-order discretizations up to order five. The proposed approach establishes the first practical method that provides small and scalable MGRIT iteration counts for advection problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Synergistic data analytics for electromechanical oscillation in electric power systems

Accurate real-time estimation of the four electromechanical oscillation properties, i.e., dominant oscillation modes, mode shapes, participation factors, and coherent groups, is of great importance to assess and mitigate potential electromechanical oscillations in interconnected power systems. While eigenvalue analysis can realize such estimation, it requires precise linearized dynamic models and accurate parameters, which are highly difficult to obtain in practice. Data fusion-based modal estimation methods can extract the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data without the power system model and parameters, but most of the time only one or two property assessments can be accomplished each time. To overcome this challenge, this paper presents a synergistic data analytics solution to characterize the dynamic behaviors of electromechanical oscillations from real-time measurement data. Here, the proposed method uses optimized variable projection, and it is capable of estimating all four electromechanical oscillation behavior properties from measured responses. Case studies are performed using the simulated measurement data of a 16-generator 68-bus test system and the field measurements collected by the PMUs deployed in the Yunnan Power Grid. The results demonstrate that the proposed synergistic data analytics solution can achieve satisfactory performance in capturing the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data and exhibit strong robustness against measurement noise when compared with existing measurement-based methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

The added value of using regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale data from general circulation models (GCMs) has often been questioned and researched. Although several studies have used different methods to identify (and in some cases quantify) the added value, there is still a need to find a general metric that quantifies the added value of any variable. This paper builds on past studies to propose a new metric of added value in the simulation of present-day climate which measures the difference in the probability density functions (PDFs) at each grid-cell between a model and an observation source, and then compares the results of the RCM and GCM in order to spatially compute the added value index. The same method is also adapted to quantify the climate change downscaling signal in a way that is consistent with the present-day metric. These new metrics are tested on the daily precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE projection ensembles and reveal an overall positive added value of RCMs, especially at the tail-end of the distribution. Higher added value is obtained in areas of complex topography and coast-lines, as well as in tropical regions. Areas with large added value in present-day climate are consistent with areas of significant climate change downscaling signal in the RCP 8.5 far future simulations, and when the analysis is repeated at a low-resolution. The use of different resolution observations shows that the added value tends to decrease when models are compared to low-resolution observation datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accretion onto a Supermassive Black Hole Binary before Merger

While supermassive binary black holes (SMBBHs) inspiral toward merger they may also accrete matter from a surrounding disk. To study the dynamics of this system requires simultaneously describing the evolving spacetime and the magnetized plasma. We present the first relativistic calculation simulating two equal-mass, nonspinning black holes as they inspiral from a 20 M (G = c = 1) initial separation almost to merger. Our results imply important observational consequences: for instance, the accretion rate $\dot{M}$ onto the black holes first decreases and then plateaus, dropping by only a factor of ~3 despite the rapid inspiral. An estimated bolometric light curve follows the same profile, suggesting some merging SMBBHs may be significantly luminous past the predicted circumbinary disk decoupling. The minidisks are nonstandard: Reynolds, not Maxwell, stresses dominate, and they oscillate between two states. In one part of the cycle, "sloshing" streams transfer mass between minidisks, carrying kinetic energy at a rate sometimes as high as the peak minidisk bolometric luminosity. We also discover that episodic accretion drives time-varying minidisk tilts. These complex dynamics all contribute to unique cyclical behavior in the light curves of late-time inspiraling SMBBHs. The poloidal magnetic flux on the black holes is roughly constant at a dimensionless level $\phi$ ~ 2–3, but doubles just before merger; for significant black hole spin, this flux predicts powerful jets with variability driven by binary dynamics, another potentially unique electromagnetic signature. This simulation is the first to employ our multipatch infrastructure PATCHWORK MHD, decreasing the computational expense to ~3% of conventional single-grid methods' cost.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Extended-Term Simulation of Power Systems with High PV Penetration. Final Report

This is the final Technical Report for DOE-SETO Project Award # DE-EE0036461. The goal of this project is to advance the understanding of the grid impact of high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation by developing novel numerical methods to solve the differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that define power systems. This will overcome the limitations of current software packages – namely that they only consider fast dynamics over brief time periods. The work presented in this final project report covers results over the entire period of the project. This includes results on model development, code development for the PST repository, datasets in the PST repository, algorithm development and results from variable time-step simulations, development and results from multirate simulations, and sensitivity analysis of key parameter in variable time-step methods. In addition, this report discusses project outreach activities to stakeholders, and a summary of project products. Also covered in this final report is the writing of two conference papers (one of which has already been accepted) and a journal paper. In addition, the updating of two inverter models (both grid forming and grid following) to be compatible with the latest version of PST software is discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian GAN-Based False Data Injection Attack Detection in Active Distribution Grids With DERs

Advancements in information and communication technologies have revolutionized monitoring and control capabilities within smart grids. However, it also brings new vulnerabilities to data acquisition systems and state estimation functions, which attackers can subtly tamper with the measurement data through compromising the communication network. Moreover, the high penetration of renewable energy sources with the inherited characteristics of uncertainty and variability further complicates the design of effective intrusion detection systems. In this paper, a Bayesian deep learning-based approach is developed to detect cyber attacks and maintain the security of smart grids. Our method specifically addresses the prevalent issue of imbalanced data in real power systems, which arises from the predominance of normal system operations over compromised or attacked states. Employing a novel Bayesian GAN-based technique, our approach successfully discriminates between secure and compromised measurement data, even in scenarios with significant data imbalance. Furthermore, the proposed method accommodates various practical application factors, ensuring accurate intrusion detection despite the presence of measurement noise. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed detection mechanism are validated by testing on IEEE 13-node and 123-node test systems. Simulation results and comparisons with literature methods demonstrate the superiority of proposed cybersecurity solutions.

Bayesian GAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Hydropower and PSH Capacity Expansion Modeling (Final Report on HydroWIRES D1 Improvements to Capacity Expansion Modeling)

Hydropower and pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) have played a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. electricity system for over a century. As variable generation (VG) deployment increases the demand for flexible, dispatchable generation, it is important to use all available methods for understanding how hydropower and PSH interfaces with VG in a future low-carbon grid. Capacity expansion models (CEMs) of electricity systems are often used to study future electricity scenarios, but these tools often have difficulty representing site- and technology-details of hydropower and PSH due to limited spatial, temporal, or process resolution. This report demonstrates a set of model advancements to improve hydropower and PSH representations in CEMs and other models that consider hydropower and PSH's role in electricity systems. Model advancements include new data integration to define closed-loop PSH resource availability and cost, along with site-level parameterizations of existing PSH capacity and energy storage specifications. Shifting energy across seasons for both hydropower and PSH is explored to demonstrate the potential value of long-duration storage. New representations of hydropower upgrades offer opportunities to increase dispatchability, add pumps, or independently add capacity or energy depending on what is most valuable. New model structures and data are demonstrated individually and in combination to observe their impact on model results and provide initial insights into what is most important for analysts, electricity system planners, and hydropower decision-makers to consider when assessing future roles of hydropower. Improving flexibility of existing hydropower assets has the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions through complementing VG technologies and/or improve electricity system economics by reducing the need to deploy higher-cost systems. Large-scale energy storage is also shown to provide opportunities for balancing seasonal differences in VG, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV). Initial analysis with a new closed-loop PSH resource and cost dataset also demonstrate the potential for new PSH deployment to offer new grid flexibility opportunities. Future analysis and modeling of hydropower's role in the U.S. and other electricity systems could include methodological improvements based on those discussed here along with sensitivity analysis to better represent current and future potential hydropower and PSH flexibility. Improvements to geospatial and site-level data can further improve the understanding of how hydropower and PSH can be upgraded and operated in response to future electricity system needs. This work lays the groundwork to use advanced planning models to explore the range of roles hydropower and PSH can play in the grid of the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal operation and sizing of pumped thermal energy storage for net benefits maximization

Abstract Current trends in the modern grid are leading to the development and deployment of energy storage to help integrate increasing variable renewable energy sources into the grid. This paper studies a pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) system for multiple grid services including energy arbitrage, frequency regulation, spinning and non‐spinning reserve, and resource adequacy. Optimal dispatch methods are proposed for individual services as well as value stacking from multiple services to maximize the economic benefits. Assessment results demonstrate the superiority of value stacking. Specifically, the study shows the maximum revenue from an individual grid service with a 30‐MWh PTES system was $522,520, while the value stacking could increase the benefits to $678,477. In addition, sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the cost‐effectiveness of a PTES system with different combinations of power transfer limits and energy capacity. It was found that the power transfer limit had a greater impact than the energy capacity on the benefits. The proposed method could help determine the optimal duration of a future PTES system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of Induction Motors and Variable Speed Drives for Multi-Domain System Simulations Using Modelica and the OpenIPSL Library

This paper introduces an innovative method for characterizing, implementing, and validating both three-phase and single-phase induction motor models, accompanied by a variable speed drive model. The primary goal is to investigate interactions between the electrical power grid and other dynamic domains (e.g., thermofluidic) that impact motor/load drive behavior. Our approach involves establishing a mechanical interface based on a physically meaningful equation linking motor torque/speed to the electrical model in the phasor domain. This allows seamless integration of diverse domain subsystems into a unified multi-domain model using Modelica v4.0.0 and the OpenIPSL library v3.0.1, overcoming co-simulation limitations. The proposed model, which requires only one Modelica-compliant tool for simulation, introduces additional dynamics through the mechanical interface, enabling explicit simulation of load disturbances based on constitutive physics. This deepens our understanding of dynamic interactions between the electrical power domain and other subsystems connected through the motor. We detail the modeled components using mathematical equations and textual descriptions, emphasizing the Modelica modeling approach. Simulation examples validate the implementation, demonstrating the multi-domain modeling capabilities of the newly developed components.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Analysis of PNM's Renewable Reserve Requirements to Meet New Mexico's Decarbonization Goals

Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An analysis of physics limited dispatch of nuclear renewable integrated energy systems using deep reinforcement learning and dynamic modeling

Previous approaches to dispatching nuclear integrated energy systems (NIES) have focused on the profitability and flexibility of these systems to operate on energy grids with highly variable pricing. However, due to the complexity involved in modeling and designing these systems, there has been less emphasis on ensuring that these dispatch strategies are physically achievable. It is imperative to develop methods that allow the system to remain within the desired NIES operating conditions and perform this based on realistic limited forecasted information. This research employs next generation artificial intelligence, namely deep reinforcement learning (DRL), and a dynamic system model written in Modelica to find a safe and profitable dispatch strategy for a solar nuclear hybrid design. The DRL agent is shown to find a novel dispatch strategy that manages both power ramping and power levels while respecting operational limits. This DRL-based dispatch is compared to other dispatching strategies including an optimal design solution from mixed integer linear programming (MILP). It is found that incorporating the physics of such a tightly coupled NIES limits the profitability of the MILP-based dispatch strategy. As a result, the MILP solution overestimates the design’s generated revenue. In contrast, DRL significantly reduces the number of breaches of safe operational conditions during energy arbitrage while maintaining profitability. Furthermore, this work paves the way for a more detailed assessment of NIES profitability and could be used to aid operator decisions on future NIES projects.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Information Theoretic Approach to Identify Dominant Voltage Influencers for Unbalanced Distribution Systems

Smart distribution grid with multiple renewable energy sources can experience random voltage fluctuations due to variable generation, which may result in voltage violations. Traditional voltage control algorithms are inadequate to handle fast voltage variations. Therefore, new dynamic control methods are being developed that can significantly benefit from the knowledge of dominant voltage influencer (DVI) nodes. DVI nodes for a particular node of interest refer to nodes that have a relatively high impact on the voltage fluctuations at that node. Conventional power flow-based algorithms to identify DVI nodes are computationally complex, which limits their use in real-time applications. This paper proposes a novel information theoretic voltage influencing score (VIS) that quantifies the voltage influencing capacity of nodes with DERs/active loads in a three phase unbalanced distribution system. VIS is then employed to rank the nodes and identify the DVI set. VIS is derived analytically in a computationally efficient manner and its efficacy to identify DVI nodes is validated using the IEEE 37-node test system. It is shown through experiments that KL divergence and Bhattacharyya distance are effective indicators of DVI nodes with an identifying accuracy of more than 90%. Additionally, the computation burden is also reduced by an order of 5, thus providing the foundation for efficient voltage control.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pilot Development Progress to Demonstrate Electric Thermal Energy Storage (ETES) Using Low-Cost Particles

The rapid growth of variable renewable power generation increases the need to economically store electrical energy over durations up to several days in long-duration energy storage (LDES) applications. LDES can bridge the intermittency of increasing variable renewable energy (VRE) and facilitate emission-free dispatchable electricity to improve the resilience of the grid and provide reliable and potentially cost-effective energy. Several energy storage approaches including mechanical, chemical and electrochemical methods are currently deployed or under development. However, LDES requirements pose unique challenges for scalability, energy capacity, and cost. Electro-thermal energy storage (ETES) can store a large capacity of energy with site flexibility and has attracted significant interest for LDES purposes. This paper shows the progress of developing a demonstration test facility for particle ETES technology including pilot-scale component design and fabrication.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimating surface carbon fluxes based on a local ensemble transform Kalman filter with a short assimilation window and a long observation window: an observing system simulation experiment test in GEOS-Chem 10.1

We developed a carbon data assimilation system to estimate surface carbon fluxes using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) and atmospheric transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the MERRA-1 reanalysis of the meteorological field based on the Goddard Earth Observing System model,version 5 (GEOS-5). This assimilation system is inspired by the method of Kang et al. (2011, 2012), who estimated the surface carbon fluxes in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) as evolving parameters in the assimilation of the atmospheric CO 2 , using a short assimilation window of 6 h. They included the assimilation of the standard meteorological variables, so that the ensemble provided a measure of the uncertainty in the CO 2 transport. After proposing new techniques such as “variablelocalization”, and increased observation weights near the surface, they obtained accurate surface carbon fluxes at grid-point resolution. We developed a new version of the local ensemble transform Kalman filter related to the “running-in-place”(RIP) method used to accelerate the spin-up of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation(Kalnay and Yang, 2010; Wang et al., 2013; Yang et al., 2012). Like RIP, the new assimilation system uses the “no cost smoothing” algorithm for the LETKF (Kalnay et al., 2007b), which allows shifting the Kalman filter solution forward or backward within an assimilation window at no cost. In the new scheme a long “observation window” (e.g., 7 d or longer) is used to design a LETKF ensemble at 7 d. Then, the RIP smoother is used to obtain an accurate final analysis at 1 d. This new approach has the advantage of being based on a short assimilation window, which makes it more accurate,and of having been exposed to the future 7 d observations, which improves the analysis and accelerates the spin-up. The assimilation and observation windows are then shifted forward by 1 d, and the process is repeated.This reduces significantly the analysis error, suggesting that the newly developed assimilation method can be used with other Earth system models,especially in order to make greater use of observations in conjunction with models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗