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Measurements of the non-uniform diffusion length of the minority carriers near grain boundaries in polycrystalline silicon have been used to develop an analytical model for the calculation of solar cell output as a function of grain size. Experimental results are presented which verify the theoretical analysis. Variation of open circuit voltage and fill factor with grain size is discussed.
A technique that eliminates external field sources and the effects of strike aliasing was used to extract from marine survey data the intermediate wavelength magnetic anomaly field for (B) in the North Pacific. A strong correlation exists between this field and the MAGSAT field although a directional sensitivity in the MAGSAT field can be detected. The intermediate wavelength field is correlated to tectonic features. Island arcs appear as positive anomalies of induced origin likely due to variations in crustal thickness. Seamount chains and oceanic plateaus also are manifested by strong anomalies. The primary contribution to many of these anomalies appears to be due to a remanent magnetization. The source parameters for the remainder of these features are presently unidentified ambiguous. Results indicate that the sea surface field is a valuable source of information for secular variation analysis and the resolution of intermediate wavelength source parameters.
The theory and methodology of using differential absorption lidar techniques for the remote measurement of atmospheric pressure profiles, surface pressure, and temperature profiles from ground, air, and space-based platforms are presented. Pressure measurements are effected by means of high resolution measurement of absorption at the edges of the oxygen A band lines where absorption is pressure dependent due to collisional line broadening. Temperature is assessed using measurements of the absorption at the center of the oxygen A band line originating from a quantum state with high ground state energy. The population of the state is temperature dependent, allowing determination of the temperature through the Boltzmann term. The results of simulations of the techniques using Voigt profile and variational analysis are reported for ground-based, airborne, and Shuttle-based systems. Accuracies in the 0.5-1.0 K and 0.1-0.3% range are projected.
Several flow phenomena including flowfield periodicity, rotor shock oscillation, and rotor shock system geometry were investigated in a transonic low aspect ratio fan rotor using laser anemometry. Flow periodicity is found to increase with increasing rotor pressure rise, and to correlate with blade geometry variations. Analysis of time-accurate laser anemometer data indicates that the rotor shock oscillates about its mean location with an amplitude of 3 to 4 percent of rotor chord. The shock surface is nearly two-dimensional or levels of rotor pressure rise at and above the peak efficiency level but becomes more complex for lower levels of pressure rise. Spanwise shock lean generates radial flows due to streamline deflection in the hub-to-shroud streamsurface.
A variational analysis method (VAM) is used to remove the ambiguity of the Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS) winds. The VAM yields the best fit to the data by minimizing an objective function S which is a measure of the lack of fit. The SASS data are described and the function S and the analysis procedure are defined. Analyses of a single ship report which are analogous to Green's functions are presented. The analysis procedure is tuned and its sensitivity is described using the QE II storm. The procedure is then applied to a case study of September 6, 1978, south of Japan.
A technique that eliminates external field sources and the effects of strike aliasing was used to extract from marine survey data the intermediate wavelength magnetic anomaly field for (B) in the North Pacific. A strong correlation exists between this field and the Magsat field although a directional sensitivity in the Magsat field can be detected. The intermediate wavelength field is correlated to tectonic features. Island arcs appear as positive anomalies of induced origin likely due to variations in crustal thickness. Seamount chains and oceanic plateaus also are manifested by strong anomalies. The primary contribution to many of these anomalies appears to be due to a remanent magnetization. The source parameters for the remainder of these features are presently unidentified ambiguous. Results indicate that the sea surface field is a valuable source of information for secular variation analysis and the resolution of intermediate wavelength source parameters.
Several flow phenomena including flowfield periodicity, rotor shock oscillation, and rotor shock system geometry were investigated in a transonic low aspect ratio fan rotor using laser anemometry. Flow periodicity is found to increase with increasing rotor pressure rise, and to correlate with blade geometry variations. Analysis of time-accurate laser anemometer data indicates that the rotor shock oscillates about its mean location with an amplitude of 3 to 4 percent of rotor chord. The shock surface is nearly two-dimensional for levels of rotor pressure rise at and above the peak efficiency level but becomes more complex for lower levels of pressure rise. Spanwise shock lean generates radial flows due to streamline deflection in the hub-to-shroud streamsurface.
In the present investigation, a variational analysis method (VAM) is used to remove the ambiguity of the Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS) winds. At each SASS data point, two, three, or four wind vectors (termed ambiguities) are retrieved. It is pointed out that the VAM is basically a least squares method for fitting data. The problem may be nonlinear. The best fit to the data and constraints is obtained on the basis of a minimization of the objective function. The VAM was tested and tuned at 12 h GMT Sept. 10, 1978. Attention is given to a case study involving an intense cyclone centered south of Japan at 138 deg E.
Investigations in FY-85 were centered on three case study days in 1982. Two of these, March 6 and April 24, were Atmospheric Variability Experiment/Verical Atmospheric Sounder (AVE/VAS) days for which high spatial and temporal resolution RAOB and Vertical Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data sets were available. The third investigation day, April 26, was a day of interesting severe weather. In the last part of FY-84 and early FY-85 we were able to demonstrate most importantly the complimentary nature of satellite soundings and winds in a forecast/analysis system. In our variational analysis scheme, cloud drift and water vapor winds enter into the height field as gradient information. The cloud drift winds especially, have the character of supplying information in cloudy areas where satellite soundings are not possible. In the April 26 experiments, analyses and forecasts using the combination satellite winds and soundings were superior to those using only soundings. Good consistency was shown between independent satellite forecasts from different initialization times run to the same verification time. A significant accomplishment in FY-85 was expanding experiments on April 26 to include quasi-continuous initialization inserting satellite soundings and winds from several different times into an analysis/forecast. Contrary to the first set of experiments on April 26, here forecast initialization fields were not independent, but contained satellite information from two data times.
An attempt was made to offset the limitations of GEO satellites for supplying timely initialization data for numerical weather prediction models (NWP). The NWP considered combined an isentropic representation of the free atmosphere with a sigma-coordinate model for the lower 200 mb. A flux form of the predictive equations described vertical transport interactions at the boundary of the two model domains, thereby accounting for the poor vertical temperature and wind field resolution of GEO satellite data. A variational analysis approach was employed to insert low resolution satellite-sensed temperature data at varying rates. The model vertical resolution was limited to that available from the satellite. Test simulations demonstrated that accuracy increases with the frequency of data updates, e.g., every 0.5-1 hr. The tests also showed that extensive cloud cover negates the capabilities of IR sensors and that microwave sensors will be needed for temperature estimations for 500-1000 mb levels.
Research at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres to evaluate methods to assign directions to both real and simulated surface wind speed data is discussed. Surface wind speed measurements are obtained from satellites, including Seasat, Nimbus-7, and Geosat. The methods include the interpolation of modeled forecast winds to the wind speed datum location, the use of surface pressures with a balance relation, and a variational analysis method. It is found that the best estimates may be obtained using a multipass approach to perform a surface analysis incorporating all conventional surface data.
The effects of atmospheric stratification and the stability of the atmospheric stratification on the scatterometer data measuring surface winds over the ocean were investigated using the boundary layer model developed by Louis (1979). A variational analysis method is proposed, which allows direct assimilation of scatterometer data. It is shown that the effect of the stability of atmospheric stratification on the wind increment is relatively small. However, it is a systematic effect, and neglecting it would consistently underestimate the winds in stable regions.
A novel and unique ocean-surface wind data-set has been derived by combining the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Special Sensor Microwave Imager data with additional conventional data. The variational analysis used generates a gridded surface wind analysis that minimizes an objective function measuring the misfit of the analysis to the background, the data, and certain a priori constraints. In the present case, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts surface-wind analysis is used as the background.
A combined analytical and experimental study was conducted to analyze microcracking, microcrack-induced delamination, and longitudinal splitting in polymer matrix composites. Strain energy release rates, calculated by a variational analysis, were used in a failure criterion to predict microcracking. Predictions and test results were compared for static, fatigue, and cyclic thermal loading. The longitudinal splitting analysis accounted for the effects of fiber bridging. Test data are analyzed and compared for longitudinal splitting and delamination under mixed-mode loading. This study emphasizes the importance of using fracture mechanics analyses to understand the complex failure processes that govern composite strength and life.
A unified identification and control scheme capable of achieving space at form performance objectives under nominal or failure conditions is described. Preliminary results are also presented, showing that the methodology offers much promise for effective robust control of large space structures. The control method is a multivariable, adaptive, output predictive controller called Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC uses a state space model and input reference trajectories of set or tracking points to adaptively generate optimum commands. For a fixed model, MPC processes commands with great efficiency, and is also highly robust. A key feature of MPC is its ability to control either nonminimum phase or open loop unstable systems. As an output controller, MPC does not explicitly require full state feedback, as do most multivariable (e.g., Linear Quadratic) methods. Its features are very useful in LSS operations, as they allow non-collocated actuators and sensors. The identification scheme is based on canonical variate analysis (CVA) of input and output data. The CVA technique is particularly suited for the measurement and identification of structural dynamic processes - that is, unsteady transient or dynamically interacting processes such as between aerodynamics and structural deformation - from short, noisy data. CVA is structured so that the identification can be done in real or near real time, using computationally stable algorithms. Modeling LSS dynamics in 1-g laboratories has always been a major impediment not only to understanding their behavior in orbit, but also to controlling it. In cases where the theoretical model is not confirmed, current methods provide few clues concerning additional dynamical relationships that are not included in the theoretical models. CVA needs no a priori model data, or structure; all statistically significant dynamical states are determined using natural, entropy-based methods. Heretofore, a major limitation in applying adaptive controllers to LSS problems has been the requirement for accurate models. We feel that MPC coupled with the CVA identification scheme will resolve this limitation. The results are based on research performed under an SBIR grant, administered by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.
Observations of solar magnetic activity and the dynamics of the solar convection zone have produced severe constraints on models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo. These constraints are so severe that, at present, we do not have numerical models that can accept the current conditions and then march forward in time to predict future activity. Given this state of solar dynamo theory we are forced to examine previous behavior to discover patterns and trends that afford us some measure of predictability. Here we examine the behavior of several indicators of solar activity near solar minimum that are well correlated with the amplitude of the following solar maximum to predict the level of solar activity over cycle 23. Sunspot numbers, areas, and positions are useful for characterizing solar cycle behavior due to the extent of the data (12 cycles or more). These data exhibit several patterns that relate future activity to past behavior. With the Odd-Even effect the odd numbered cycles have been larger than their even numbered predecessors for each of the last six cycle pairs. With the Amplitude-Period effect short period cycles have been followed by large amplitude cycles and long period cycles have been followed by small amplitude cycles for 10 of the last 13 cycles. With the Maximum-Minimum effect the sunspot number at minimum is directly correlated with the sunspot number at maximum for a given cycle. The geomagnetic indices aa and Ap are also related to solar activity by the connections between disturbances in the solar wind and variations in the Earth's magnetic field. Like the Maximum-Minimum effect for sunspots, the size of the aa and Ap indices at minimum are directly related to the amplitude of the following maximum. The number of geomagnetically disturbed days (days with Ap >= 25) over the course of a cycle is another indicator for the size of the next cycle. The aa and Ap indices can each be separated into a component in phase with the current sunspot cycle and an "extended cycle" component that is directly related to the following cycle. Individually each of these indicators provides some measure of predictive ability for the amplitudes of previous cycles. Taken in combination we find that the predictions are much more accurate. Our multi-variate analysis indicates that a maximum sunspot number of 160 +/- 20 should occur near the end of 1999 for cycle 23.
The mission of the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to advance the state of the art of data assimilation and produce research-quality assimilated data sets which make optimal use of space-based observations. Development efforts over the last few years have focused on delivering a production data assimilation system in support of NASA's Terra platform. That system, called the Goddard Earth Observing System - version 2 or GEOS-2, represents a major upgrade to the baseline GEOS-1 system employed in NASA's first reanalysis effort. GEOS-2 includes a physical-space three dimensional variational analysis algorithm (the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System or PSAS) and numerous improvements to the general circulation model. The latter include a Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) land surface scheme, a level 2.5 moist turbulence scheme and new Short Wave (SW) and Long Wave (LW) radiation code. The system also includes an off-line ozone assimilation system, and the capability to assimilate scatterometer surface winds, and TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) moisture data. GEOS-2 is currently run at 1 degree horizontal resolution and 48 levels extending to O.Olmb. Experimental versions of GEOS-2 are run with a global stretched grid allowing enhanced (e.g. 1/4 deg) regional resolution. Other capabilities being developed include, the assimilation of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and Global Positioning System (GPS) data, an off-line land surface assimilation system, and a retrospective analysis scheme. The DAO is also engaged in a number of collaborative efforts to help accelerate the development of the next generation data assimilation system. These include, a joint modeling effort between the DAO and NCAR/CGDD to develop a new Global Circulation Model (GCM), and a Department of Energy Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (DOE/LLNL) collaboration on model parallelization. Plans for the next reanalysis will be discussed in the context of current and near term system quality and computing capabilities, and the need for multiple reanalysis products.
Surface winds over the oceans are derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) measurements, assigning direction by Variational Analysis Method (VAM). Validations by comparison with other measurements indicate highly-satisfactory data quality. Providing global coverage from 1988, the dataset is a convenient source for surface-wind climatology. In this study, the interannual variability of zonal winds is analyzed concentrating on the westerlies in North Atlantic and North Pacific, above 30 N. Interannual differences in the westerlies exceeding 10 m sec (exp -1) are observed over large regions, often accompanied by changes of the same magnitude in the easterlies below 30 N. We concentrate on February/March, since elevated temperatures, by advancing snow-melt, can produce early spring. The extremely strong westerlies in 1997 observed in these months over North Atlantic (and also North Pacific) apparently contributed to large surface-temperature anomalies in western Europe, on the order of +3 C above the climatic monthly average for England and France. At these latitudes strong positive anomalies extended in a ring around the globe. We formulated an Index of South westerlies for the North Atlantic, which can serve as an indicator for day-by-day advection effects into Europe. In comparing 1997 and 1998 with the previous years, we establish significant correlations with the temperature anomalies (one to five days later, depending on the region, and on the season). This variability of the ocean-surface winds and of the temperature anomalies on land may be related to the El Nino/La Nina oscillations. Such large temperature fluctuations over large areas, whatever the cause, can be regarded as noise in attempts to assess long-term trends in global temperature.