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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

Systematics in the Electron Spectrum Measured by ATIC

An analysis of different parameters to separate electrons from protons in the ATIC experiment has been performed. Five separate discriminants were studied by different Monte Carlo programs, leading to a variety of results. Application to the ATIC data indicates the range of variation possible in the interpretation of the data. The results of this analysis, when compared with the published results [5], show good agreement in the most interesting region of energy (from 90 GeV to 600 GeV). The measured electron spectrum is compared with the recent data reported by Fermi/LAT, and there is no major disagreement between ATIC s results and Fermi/LAT. Finally, possible systematics-free, short energy scale features of the ATIC electron spectrum are mentioned. Keywords: ATIC, electron spectrum, fine structure

Panov, A. D.↗

Small Body Landing Accuracy Using In-Situ Navigation

Spacecraft landings on small bodies (asteroids and comets) can require target accuracies too stringent to be met using ground-based navigation alone, especially if specific landing site requirements must be met for safety or to meet science goals. In-situ optical observations coupled with onboard navigation processing can meet the tighter accuracy requirements to enable such missions. Recent developments in deep space navigation capability include a self-contained autonomous navigation system (used in flight on three missions) and a landmark tracking system (used experimentally on the Japanese Hayabusa mission). The merging of these two technologies forms a methodology to perform autonomous onboard navigation around small bodies. This paper presents an overview of these systems, as well as the results from Monte Carlo studies to quantify the achievable landing accuracies by using these methods. Sensitivity of the results to variations in spacecraft maneuver execution error, attitude control accuracy and unmodeled forces are examined. Cases for two bodies, a small asteroid and on a mid-size comet, are presented.

in-situ navigation↗

The Implementation of Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Space Launch System Vehicle Design

As NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) approaches first launch, the design has matured to a point where the manufacturing uncertainty has decreased now that many of the components of the launch vehicle have been manufactured and the flight engines have been successfully tested. Prior to this point, a method was required to qualify and capture the impact of the differences between simulation and reality, as well as any uncertainties in the SLS design. Two primary categories of uncertainty arise during the launch vehicle design process. The first represents flight-day uncertainties including dispersions due to winds and temperatures. These are typically examined by performing a Monte Carlo on 6 Degree of Freedom (6-DOF) simulations. The second category of uncertainties represents any manufacturing variations that are present at the individual component level of the launch vehicle design. These variations are constructed using statistical masses and tend to become better understood and refined as the design cycle matures, finally resulting in the launch vehicle as constructed and tested.

Stein, W. B.↗

Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity

The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.

Daniel C Kammer↗

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

FROM↗

Visible flux variations across finite clouds

A radiative transfer model developed to computer visible flux variations across and within finite clouds of varying shapes is described. The technique has much of the versatility of Monte Carlo models, as well as the speed of the analytical finite cloud models.

Mosher, F. R.↗

An APL program for the distribution of energy deposition by charged particles passing through thin absorbers

An APL program which numerically evaluates the probability density function (PDF) for the energy deposited in a thin absorber by a charged particle is proposed, with application to the construction, pointing, and control of spacecraft. With this program, the PDF of the restricted energy loss distribution of Watts (1973) is derived, and Vavilov's (1957) distribution is obtained by proper parameter selection. The method is demonstrated with the example of the effect of charged particle induced radiation on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) pointing accuracy. A Monte Carlo study simulates the photon noise caused by charged particles passing through the photomultiplier tube window, and the stochastic variation of energy loss is introduced into the simulation by generating random energy losses from a power law distribution. The program eliminates annoying loop procedures, and model parameter sensitivity can be studied using the graphical output.

Howell, L. W.↗

Near wake structure for a generic ASTV configuration

Results of a numerical study are presented for hypersonic low-density flow about a 70-deg blunt cone using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method. Particular emphasis is given to the near wake flow and its sensitivity to rarefaction and other parametric variations. The flow conditions simulated are attainable in existing low-density hypersonic wind tunnels; that is, Mach 20 nitrogen flow encompassing freestream Knudsen numbers of 0.03 to 0.001. A stable vortex forms in the near wake at and below a freestream Knudsen number of 0.01 and the size of the vortex increases with decreasing freestream Knudsen number. The base region of the flow remains in thermal nonequilibrium for all cases. There is no formation of a lip separation shock or a distinct wake shock at these rarefied conditions.

Dogra, Virendra K.↗

Stochastic Analysis of Orbital Lifetimes of Spacecraft

A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.

Sasamoto, Washito↗

Fast and Precise Trajectory Simulation for Entry, Descent, and Landing Using A Multi-Model Monte Carlo Approach

Predicting landing radius and other quantities of interest (QoI) for entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications requires a viable uncertainty propagation method for quantifying the impact of uncertainties in wind pattern variations, atmospheric uncertainties, etc. While standard MC simulation is the defacto standard for providing robust and unbiased predictions,it is often infeasible for expensive, high-fidelity EDL models. Low-fidelity models are commonly constructed to replace the high-fidelity model in MC simulation for computational speedup,but at the expense of accuracy and unbiasedness. Emerging multi-model MC methods are bridging this gap by combining predictions from two or more models of varying fidelity and computational cost for efficient and unbiased uncertainty propagation. This work explores the use of multi-model MC for increasing the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. It is shown that combining a high-fidelity EDL model with low-fidelity models (e.g,data-driven, reduced physics) yields substantial computational speedup versus standard MCwith only the high-fidelity model. Moreover, the unbiasedness of multi-model MC predictions is highlighted by showing increased accuracy versus an approach that leverages a low-fidelity surrogate model alone.

James E. Warner↗

The effect of random fluctuations in atmospheric density on significant space shuttle reentry parameters.

The effects of realistic atmospheric density variations on reentry vehicles are investigated with the aid of a random model of atmospheric density and a series of Monte Carlo reentry trajectories generated for a typical delta-wing orbiter design. The random behavior of five major performance indicators is studied, namely, maximum dynamic pressure, maximum g load, maximum stagnation heating rate, down-range distance, and cross-range distance.

Campbell, J. W.↗

Risk Assessment of Bone Fracture During Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

The possibility of a traumatic bone fracture in space is a concern due to the observed decrease in astronaut bone mineral density (BMD) during spaceflight and because of the physical demands of the mission. The Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) was developed to quantify the probability of fracture at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during space exploration missions. The BFxRM is scenario-based, providing predictions for specific activities or events during a particular space mission. The key elements of the BFxRM are the mission parameters, the biomechanical loading models, the bone loss and fracture models and the incidence rate of the activity or event. Uncertainties in the model parameters arise due to variations within the population and unknowns associated with the effects of the space environment. Consequently, parameter distributions were used in Monte Carlo simulations to obtain an estimate of fracture probability under real mission scenarios. The model predicts an increase in the probability of fracture as the mission length increases and fracture is more likely in the higher gravitational field of Mars than on the moon. The resulting probability predictions and sensitivity analyses of the BFxRM can be used as an engineering tool for mission operation and resource planning in order to mitigate the risk of bone fracture in space.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗

Risk Assessment of Bone Fracture During Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

The possibility of a traumatic bone fracture in space is a concern due to the observed decrease in astronaut bone mineral density (BMD) during spaceflight and because of the physical demands of the mission. The Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) was developed to quantify the probability of fracture at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during space exploration missions. The BFxRM is scenario-based, providing predictions for specific activities or events during a particular space mission. The key elements of the BFxRM are the mission parameters, the biomechanical loading models, the bone loss and fracture models and the incidence rate of the activity or event. Uncertainties in the model parameters arise due to variations within the population and unknowns associated with the effects of the space environment. Consequently, parameter distributions were used in Monte Carlo simulations to obtain an estimate of fracture probability under real mission scenarios. The model predicts an increase in the probability of fracture as the mission length increases and fracture is more likely in the higher gravitational field of Mars than on the moon. The resulting probability predictions and sensitivity analyses of the BFxRM can be used as an engineering tool for mission operation and resource planning in order to mitigate the risk of bone fracture in space.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗

Examining Biases in Diurnally-Integrated Shortwave Irradiances due to Two- and Four-Stream Approximations in Cloudy Atmosphere

Shortwave irradiance biases due to two- and four-stream approximations have been studied for the last couple of decades, but biases in estimating Earth’s radiation budget have not been examined in earlier studies. In order to quantify biases in diurnally-averaged irradiances, we integrate the two- and four-stream biases using realistic diurnal variations of cloud properties from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) synoptic (SYN) hourly product. Three approximations are examined in this study, delta-two-stream-Eddington (D2strEdd), delta- two-stream-quadrature (D2strQuad), and delta-four-stream-quadrature (D4strQuad). Irradiances computed by the Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT) and Monte Carlo (MC) methods are used as references. The MC noises are further examined by comparing with DISORT results. When the biases are integrated with a one-day of solar zenith angle variation, regional biases of D2strEdd and D2strQuad reach up to 8 W/sq.m, while biases of D4strQuad reach up to 2 W/sq.m. When the biases are further averaged monthly or annually, regional biases of D2strEdd and D2strQuad can reach –1.5 W/sq.m in SW top-of-atmosphere (TOA) upward irradiances and +3 W/sq.m in surface downward irradiances. In contrast, regional biases of D4strQuad are within +0.9 for TOA irradiances and –1.2 W/sq.m for surface irradiances. Except for polar regions, monthly and annual global mean biases are similar, suggesting that the biases are nearly independent to season. Biases in SW heating rate profiles are up to –0.008 K/d for D2strEdd and –0.016 K/d for D2strQuad, while the biases of the D4strQuad method are negligible.

Ham, Seung-Hee↗

Evaluating the Stability of NASA's Space Launch System with Adaptive Augmenting Control

NASA's baseline Space Launch System (SLS) flight control system (FCS) design includes an adaptive augmenting control (AAC) component that modifies the attitude control system response to provide the classical gain-scheduled control architecture with additional performance and robustness. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) teamed with the Space Launch System (SLS) Program to perform a comprehensive assessment of the stability and robustness of the FCS with AAC. This paper provides an overview of the approach, specific analysis techniques, and outcomes that were particularly relevant for the SLS Program. Multiple analysis techniques that specifically target the nonlinear AAC were commissioned as part of this assessment, which was completed outside of the Program's standard design analysis cycle. The following analyses were included, with each technique adding its own valuable insights: Lyapunov-based stability analysis, classical stability analysis with static AAC gain variations, circle criterion-based analysis of the FCS with a time-varying element, time-domain stability margin assessment, Monte Carlo simulations with expanded dispersions, and an extensive set of stressing cases. Several of the completed analyses focused on determining whether the inclusion of AAC introduced risk to the FCS, while others quantified the benefits of the adaptive augmentation.

Tannen S Vanzwieten↗

Acoustic fatigue - A Monte Carlo approach

The present paper reviews the basic concepts of nonlinear structural response to surface flow and acoustic pressure inputs. A time domain solution and the Monte Carlo method are utilized to estimate the required statistics of the nonlinear response. Simulation procedures of multi-dimensional and multi-variate random processes are discussed. Application of these procedures to acoustic fatigue of flight structures are considered. Numerical examples are included to illustrate the applicability of this method for the solution of nonlinear problems.

Vaicaitis, R.↗

A potential-energy scaling model to simulate the initial stages of thin-film growth

A solid on solid (SOS) Monte Carlo computer simulation employing a potential energy scaling technique was used to model the initial stages of thin film growth. The model monitors variations in the vertical interaction potential that occur due to the arrival or departure of selected adatoms or impurities at all sites in the 400 sq. ft. array. Boltzmann ordered statistics are used to simulate fluctuations in vibrational energy at each site in the array, and the resulting site energy is compared with threshold levels of possible atomic events. In addition to adsorption, desorption, and surface migration, adatom incorporation and diffusion of a substrate atom to the surface are also included. The lateral interaction of nearest, second nearest, and third nearest neighbors is also considered. A series of computer experiments are conducted to illustrate the behavior of the model.

Heinbockel, J. H.↗

Guidance Concept for a Mars Ascent Vehicle First Stage

This paper presents a guidance concept for use on the first stage of a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV). The guidance is based on a calculus of variations approach similar to that used for the final phase of the Apollo Earth return guidance. A three degree-of-freedom (3DOF) Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate performance and robustness of the algorithm.

Queen, Eric M.↗