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At least 91 records · Page 5

East-west inclination of large-scale photospheric magnetic fields

Sixteen years of Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) magnetogram data have been studied to determine the solar cycle variation and latitude dependence of the east-west inclination of photospheric magnetic field lines. East-west inclination is here defined as the angle between a field line and its local radial vector, as projected onto the plane of the latitude and line of sight. Inclination is determined by a least-squares fit of observed magnetic fields to a simple projection model, and is found to depend on polarity and to change with the solar cycle. Leading and following polarities are tipped towards each by about 9 deg and have an overall net tilt in the direction of rotation (to the west) of 0.6 deg. New cycles are seen to begin at high latitudes and to grow through the lower latitudes over approximately 5 years, providing evidence for an extended cycle length of 16-18 years.

Shrauner, J. A↗

H110 alpha observations of Sagittarius A West: Ionized gas at peculiar velocities at the galactic center

We present Very Large Array measurements of H110 alpha radio recombination line emission from Sgr A West with a resolution of 11 x 20 arcsec. These observations detected a number of new kinematic components showing a dramatically different velocity field than expected from circular motion of ionized gas in Sgr A West about the dynamical center of the Galaxy. Recent high-resolution molecular observations show a cloud of absorbing gas at -180 km/s within 30 arcsec of the Galactic center. We find evidence of an ionized counterpart to this highly blueshifted molecular gas. This result places this highly blueshifted neutral gas in a hot UV dominated environment of the Galactic center. We suggest that the blueshifted clouds are photoionized externally by the intense UV radiation field at the Galactic center. We also detect H110 alpha emission from large-scale linear features known as the 'streamers', which run primarily perpendicular to the Galactic plane and lie exterior to the 'three-arm' spiral structure of Sgr A West and the circumstellar disk. These observations support an earlier suggestion that the streamers are thermal features whose kniematics deviate from circular motion.

Yusef-Zadeh, Farhad↗

Satellite-derived interannual variability of West African rainfall during 1983-88

Two satellite algorithms for rain estimation are used to study the interannual variability of West African rainfall during contrasting years of the period 1983-88. The first algorithm uses a frequency of occurrence index quantifying the number of times Meteosat thermal infrared radiance below 2.107 W/sq m/sr/micrometer (-40 C) occurs during the rainy season. The second algorithm uses the average Meteosat thermal infrared radiance over the period of interest. Appropriate calibrations are performed using these satellite parameters and ground-based rainfall observations. Separate calibration and equations are considered for each of three suggested subrainfall zones in West Africa: two Sahelian zones located just north of 9 deg N (one east and one west of 5 deg W) and the region extending south from 9 deg N to the coast. Over 80% of the variance in the ground-based rainfall data is explained by both algorithms in regions located north of 9 deg N, but poor correlations between observed and estimated rainfall exist south of 9 deg N. The interannual variability of rainfall in the Sahel is well described by that of cold clouds and average radiances. The satellite estimates also reveal substantial longitudinal variability in the anomaly fields, indicating that some Sahelo-Soudanian areas may receive above average rainfall during a year cataloged as dry. The latitudinal displacement and the extent of the cloud band associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), as derived from cold cloud indices, indicate a northward displacement of the ITCZ in some, but not all, wet years in the Sahel. No systematic anomalous southward displacement of the ITCZ is evident in dry years. Drought in the Sahel appears to be more closely linked to the lattitudinal extent and the intensity of the convection within the ITCZ.

Ba, Mamoudou B.↗

The Crustal Dichotomy Boundary West of Tempe Terra: Speculation on Where it Lies Beneath Alba Patera Based on Mola Topography

MOLA gridded data based on profiles collected during the Aerobraking Hiatus and Science Phasing Operations suggest the crustal dichotomy boundary west of Tempe continues beneath Alba volcanics, at least to 105 W at about 50 N. A broad shelf-like region in the Alba units is continuous with a similar region of Tempe in which Hesperian volcanics overlie Noachian cratered terrain. Perspective views show significant changes in the sloping character of the flanks of Alba east and west of 105W, with much more continuous steep topography to the west. We suggest that Alba sits astride the ancient crustal dichotomy boundary, not adjacent to it, and that its eastern half lies on old cratered terrain. If true, this would significantly affect the estimate of Alba volcanics volumes, and might also explain some of the observed asymmetries in the structure and the distribution of faults associated with this immense feature.

Frey, H.↗

Low Altitude AVIRIS Data for Mapping Land Form Types on West Ship Island, Mississippi

Barrier islands help protect the southern and southeastern U.S. shoreline from hurricanes and severe storms. They are important for coastal resource management and geologic research, especially in studies that involve changes in island areas and surface environments, and they display a dynamically changing and diverse mix of landform and vegetative cover habitats. Many Gulf Coast barrier islands have undergone dramatic decreases in areal extent, often due to hurricane and severe storm damage. For example, Louisiana's barrier islands have lost 55 percent of their surface area over the past 100 years. Aerial photography and Landsat data have been used to monitor changes in barrier island areal extent, although neither data source is optimal for making maps of detailed landform types at site-specific scales. High spatial resolution hyperspectral imagery, such as that obtained from the high spatial resolution Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) sensor, may enable improved mapping of landform types, which would benefit studies of the dynamics of barrier island environments. During the summers of 2000 and 2001, a study was conducted to assess low-altitude AVIRIS data for mapping the landform types of West Ship Island, a barrier island in Harrison County, Mississippi. This study area was selected because of the availability of low-altitude AVIRIS data acquired on July 22, 1999, and because of the area's accessibility to the investigating team. West Ship Island is one of the six barrier islands that belong to the Gulf Shores National Seashore, which is managed by the National Park Service. This island contains an impressive range of landform categories. Surface types include beach, dune, and sand flat environments. West Ship Island also harbors Fort Massachusetts, a historic fort used during the Civil War. Because it is located near Stennis Space Center, the island is frequently imaged by NASA's airborne and spaceborne sensors.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Hawaii Water Resources: Monitoring the Impact of Land-Based Sources of Pollution on Water Quality Along the Coast of West Maui, Hawai'i, to Assess Coral Reef Condition

West Maui is at risk of losing ecosystem services provided by coral reefs due to land-based sources of pollution (LBSP). In 2011, the US Coral Reef Task Force (USCRTF) identified the West Maui watershed as a priority watershed (along with its sub-watersheds of Wahikuli, Honokōwai, Kahana, Honokahua, and Honolua) after decades of coral decline, giving rise to the multi-agency West Maui Ridge to Reef (R2R) Initiative. The DEVELOP Hawai’i Water Resources team partnered with the R2R Initiative and the Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources Division of Aquatic Resources (DLNR-DAR) to address the need for better watershed management practices. The team provided the partners with a Google Earth Engine tool that displays land use and land cover changes (LULCC) in the five watersheds and detects near-shore turbidity, chlorophyll-a (chl-a), and sea surface temperature using Landsat 4 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Aqua MODIS. Team members used ancillary data provided by the R2R Initiative and the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center (PCMSC) to validate satellite parameter values. The land cover analysis captured a general trend of increasing impervious cover and decreasing vegetated cover from 1989 to 2019; however, the extent of this change varied between each watershed. This analysis, coupled with the tool, can help project partners continually monitor terrestrial and marine patterns associated with coral decline.

Water Resources↗

Large-Scale High-Resolution Coastal Mangrove Forests Mapping Across West Africa With Machine Learning Ensemble and Satellite Big Data

Coastal mangrove forests provide important ecosystem goods and services, including carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and hazard mitigation. However, they are being destroyed at an alarming rate by human activities. To characterize mangrove forest changes, evaluate their impacts, and support relevant protection and restoration decision making, accurate and up-to-date mangrove extent mapping at large spatial scales is essential. Available large-scale mangrove extent data products use a single machine learning method commonly with 30 m Landsat imagery, and significant inconsistencies remain among these data products. With huge amounts of satellite data involved and the heterogeneity of land surface characteristics across large geographic areas, finding the most suitable method for large-scale high-resolution mangrove mapping is a challenge. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of a machine learning ensemble for mangrove forest mapping at 20 m spatial resolution across West Africa using Sentinel-2 (optical) and Sentinel-1 (radar) imagery. The machine learning ensemble integrates three commonly used machine learning methods in land cover and land use mapping, including Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Neural Network (NN). The cloud-based big geospatial data processing platform Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used for pre-processing Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-1 data. Extensive validation has demonstrated that the machine learning ensemble can generate mangrove extent maps at high accuracies for all study regions in West Africa (92%–99% Producer’s Accuracy, 98%–100% User’s Accuracy, 95%–99% Overall Accuracy). This is the first-time that mangrove extent has been mapped at a 20 m spatial resolution across West Africa. The machine learning ensemble has the potential to be applied to other regions of the world and is therefore capable of producing high-resolution mangrove extent maps at global scales periodically.

coastal environment↗

Placing the East-West North American Aridity Gradient in a Multi-Century Context

Instrumental records indicate a century-long trend towards drying over western North America and wetting over eastern North America. A continuation of these trends into the future would have significant hydroclimatic and socioeconomic consequences in both the semi-arid Southwest and humid East. Using tree-ring reconstructions and hydrologic simulations of summer soil moisture, we evaluate and contextualize the modern summer aridity gradient within its natural range of variability established over the past 600 years and evaluate the effects of observed and anthropogenic precipitation, temperature, and humidity trends. The 2001–2020 positive (wet east-dry west) aridity gradient was larger than any 20-year period since 1400 CE, preceded by the most negative (wet west-dry east) aridity gradient during 1976-1995, leading to a strong multi-decade reversal in aridity gradient anomalies that was rivaled only by a similar event in the late-16th century. The 2001-2020 aridity gradient was dominated by long-term summer precipitation increases in the Midwest and Northeast, with smaller contributions from more warming in the West than the East and spring precipitation decreases in the Southwest. Multi-model mean climate simulations from CMIP6 experiments suggest anthropogenic climate trends should not have strongly affected the aridity gradient thus far. However, there is high uncertainty due to inter-model disagreement on anthropogenic precipitation trends. The recent strengthening of the observed aridity gradient, its increasing dependence on precipitation variability, and disagreement in modeled anthropogenic precipitation trends reveal significant uncertainties in how water resource availability will change across North America in the coming decades.

drought↗

East–West Proton Flux Anisotropy Observed with the PAMELA Mission

We present a study of the east–west anisotropy of trapped-proton fluxes in low-Earth orbit based on the measurements of the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics(PAMELA)experiment. The differential intensities of eastward- and westward-traveling protons detected in the South Atlantic Anomaly region were estimated as a function of equatorial pitch angle and drift shell, for six energy bins between80 MeV and 2 GeV. We found that, as a consequence of the strong atmospheric gradient coupled with the large gyro radius in this energy range, the intensities of eastward fluxes exceed those of westward fluxes by a factor of∼10–20. However, the reported directional asymmetry also depends on the sign of the local flux gradient, resulting in more intense westward fluxes beyond the radial distances where the inner belt peaks. PAMELA observations can be used to improve the description of the near-Earth radiation environment at lowest altitudes and highest trapping energies, where current theoretical and empirical models are affected by the largest uncertainties. Unified Astronomy Thesaurus concepts: Cosmic rays(329);Van Allen radiation belts(1758)1. Introduction Low-altitude inner-belt protons are strongly influenced by the density distribution of Earth’s atmosphere, mostly through interactions with its neutral constituents, which induce significant flux anisotropies. In prim is, the atmospheric loss cone results in a steep pitch-angle distribution, which becomes narrower for lower drift shells. A further, azimuthal anisotropy originates from finite gyro radius effects at proton energies in excess of a few tens of MeV(Haerendel1962; Lenchek & Singer1962). In fact, for a given spacecraft position, protons with the same pitch angle but different gyro phase—the azimuth angle associated with the gyration motion—have their guiding centers on different drift shells. In particular, protons from the west and from the east gyrate around magnetic field lines located at higher and lower altitudes, respectively. The guiding-center separationΔhincreaseswith increasing energy, so that protons moving eastward will encounter progressively lower drift-averaged densities, thus experiencing less atmospheric absorption; the opposite situation will occur for protons traveling westward, resulting in an east–west asymmetry of flux intensities whenΔhbecomes comparable to or larger than the flux scale height(Garmire1963; Heckman &Nakano1963).The trapped-flux anisotropy is a relevant aspect of the modeling of the low Earth orbit(LEO)radiation environment, given the significant engineering implications, especially for The Astrophysical Journal,919:114(6pp), 2021 October 1https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac1677© 2021. The American Astronomical Society.

A. Bruno↗

Modeling the East-West Asymmetry of Energetic Particle Fluence in Large Solar Energetic Particle Events Using the iPATH Model

It has been noted that in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, the peak intensities show an East-West asymmetry with respect to the source flare locations. Using the 2D improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model, we investigate the origin of this longitudinal trend. We consider multiple cases with different solar wind speeds and eruption speeds of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and fit the longitudinal distributions of time-averaged fluence by symmetric/asymmetric Gaussian functions with three time intervals of 8, 24 and 48 hr after the flare onset time respectively. The simulation results are compared with a statistical study of three-spacecraft events. We suggest that the East-West asymmetry of SEP fluence and peak intensity can be primarily caused the combined effect of an extended shock acceleration process and the evolution of magnetic field connection to the shock front. Our simulations show that the solar wind speed and the CME speed are important factors determining the East-West fluence asymmetry.

Zheyi Ding↗

Seasonal Temperatures in West Antarctica During the Holocene

The recovery of long-term climate proxy records with seasonal resolution is rare because of natural smoothing processes, discontinuities, and limitations in measurement resolution. Yet insolation forcing, a primary driver of multi-millennial-scale climate change, acts through seasonal variations with direct impacts on seasonal climate. Whether the sensitivity of seasonal climate to insolation matches theoretical predictions has not been assessed over long timescales. Here, we analyze a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core to reveal summer and winter temperature changes through the last 11,000 years. Summer temperatures in West Antarctica increased through the early-to-mid Holocene, reached a peak at 4.1 ka, and then decreased to the present. Climate model simulations show that these variations primarily reflect changes in maximum summer insolation, confirming the general connection between seasonal insolation and warming, and demonstrating the importance of insolation intensity rather than seasonally integrated insolation or season duration. Winter temperatures varied less overall, consistent with predictions from insolation forcing, but also fluctuated in the early Holocene, likely owing to changes in meridional heat transport. The magnitudes of summer and winter temperature changes constrain the lowering of the WAIS surface since the early Holocene to less than 162 m, and most likely less than 58 m, consistent with geological constraints elsewhere in West Antarctica.

Cryospheric science↗

Overview of the Pathways to CO2 Utilization and Storage for the Intermountain West Region

The topic of the webinar focused on findings from the first phase of I-WEST initiative, specifically related to CO2 utilization and storage as one of the many potential deep decarbonization pathway available to the region. Specifically, the seminar presented topics like: an overview of CCUS technology and benefits; a highlight of a variety of CO2 storage and utilization approaches available to the region, relevant governing regulations, and technical and non-technical grand challenges associated with each option; findings from an assessment of opportunities for CCUS deployment at significant scale within the Intermountain West; and context to help listeners better understand the technical aspects of CCUS and how they interface with economic, social, and policy aspects of decarbonization applicable to the I-WEST geographic region.

Vikara, Derek↗

West African Monsoon System’s Responses to Global Ocean–Regional Atmosphere Coupling

This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling’s influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ~25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes’ relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2020

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2020. The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2020. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2020 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

Resource Conservation and Recovery Act↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2025

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2025. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of the DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, the evaluation of data collected in 2025 continued to indicate that WVDP activities posed no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models

Understanding real uncertainties in projections is needed to support actions of decision and policy makers. In this study, two state-of-the-art regional climate models with ~ 25 km horizontal resolution forced with three different global climate models are employed to investigate the response of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system under the low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We make a step towards assessing the plausibility of rainfall change (ΔPr) patterns based on the models’ ability to realistically represent the WAM system under the historical period, and by analyzing changes in mechanisms associated with ΔPr patterns. Under global warming, experiments exhibit diverse ΔPr patterns underpinned by different combinations of mechanisms operating simultaneously. A dipole-like surface pressure change between the Sahara Desert and the Guinea Coast appears to be a differentiating factor between experiments featuring homogeneous or increased rainfall over all or a part of the Sahel from those simulating heterogeneous or reduced rainfall over the same domain. This dipole acts by modulating the amount and the extent of deepening of the monsoon flux inland, and hence the latitudinal positioning of the monsoon convective system. This process contributes to moistening the whole or central and eastern Sahel in some experiments while drying the Guinea Coast. The West African Westerly Jet (WAWJ) is responsible for strengthening and moistening the western Sahel under RCP2.6. However, the WAMJ becomes much stronger under RCP8.5 and may have contributed to the drying of the western Sahel by shifting moisture eastwards in addition to the mid-tropospheric moisture divergence through enhanced African Easterly Jet. Furthermore, for experiments expecting wetting (drying) of the Sahel, the strengthening (weakening) of the tropical easterly jet may have contributed to the projected intensification (reduction) of WAM rainfall by favoring uplift (downlift) above 600 hPa. It also emerges that the ΔPr patterns from REMO2015 experiments are likely more plausible than those from RegCM4-v7. The impacts of strong warming on the regional hydrological cycle are further investigated and we found that changes gradually intensify with the level of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of mitigating warming as recommended by the Paris agreement.

CORDEX-CORE↗

Seasonality and trade in hydro-heavy electricity markets: A case study with the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP)

Hydroelectric power plants account for 25% of West Africa's total installed capacity. In general, electricity generated by these plants is seasonal and intra-annual fluctuation has a considerable impact on electricity supply and cross-border electricity trade. We soft-linked a global hydrologic model to a multi-region capacity expansion and planning model for the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP) to examine the effects of seasonality in hydropower electricity generation on electricity trade, as well as the economic benefits of unconstrained cross-border electricity trade. We found that transitioning from rainy to dry season decreases hydroelectricity generation by an average of 40% in a normal year across the region. Between 2018 and 2050, satisfying the region's electricity demand will require significant capital investment; nevertheless, extending from current bilateral electricity trade agreements to a fully competitive cross-border electricity trade will result in net annual savings of $3 billion in 2015 USD. To achieve year-round energy security, countries should plan ahead and diversify their energy sources to ensure that supply reliability can be maintained in the case of lower supply during the dry season.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗