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DOE OSTI2021

America Resilient Climate Conference

On April 14, 2021, scientists, policymakers, and other interested parties from research institutes, academia, and other organizations gathered together virtually at the America Resilient Climate Conference to discuss one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century: building resilience to climate change. Climate change affects the security and health of all Americans. Coastal areas are enduring more frequent and severe flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge; western states and Alaska have experienced increasingly devastating wildfires, driven in part by hotter, drier, and longer fire seasons; and communities across the nation have suffered through extreme precipitation events and heat waves. Even if emissions are reduced aggressively in the near future, the world—and the United States—will continue to feel the impacts of climate change for decades to come, due to the continued accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Consequently, it is essential to act now to protect natural and human assets from the gradual—as well as extreme—impacts of a changing climate. To build resilient communities, leaders and community members need science-based information about the potential impacts climate change will have decades into the future and for specific regions. Therefore, it is essential to develop high-resolution climate models that can project both various climate impacts and the interactions between earth system variables and humans down to regional and local scales. Collecting and curating data for such models and their computational requirements poses large challenges. In the future, artificial intelligence will be needed to increase their accuracy and reduce associated uncertainties. The investments in Earth system science and artificial intelligence made by the U.S. Department of Energy and other federal entities will be essential in addressing these challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Particle phase-state variability in the North Atlantic free troposphere during summertime is determined by atmospheric transport patterns and sources

Abstract. Free tropospheric aerosol particles have important but poorly constrained climate effects due to transformations of their physicochemical properties during long-range transport. In this study, we investigate the chemical composition and provide an overview of the phase states of individual particles that have undergone long-range transport over the North Atlantic Ocean in June and July 2014, 2015, and 2017 to the Observatory of Mount Pico (OMP) in the Azores. The OMP is an ideal site for studying long-range-transported free tropospheric particles because local emissions have a negligible influence and contributions from the boundary layer are rare. We used the FLEXible PARTicle Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) to determine the origins and transport trajectories of sampled air masses and found that most of them originated from North America and recirculated over the North Atlantic Ocean. The FLEXPART analysis showed that the sampled air masses were highly aged (average plume age >10 d). Size-resolved chemical compositions of individual particles were probed using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (CCSEM-EDX) and scanning transmission X-ray microscopy with near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (STXM-NEXAFS). CCSEM-EDX results showed that the most abundant particle types were carbonaceous (∼ 29.9 % to 82.0 %), sea salt (∼ 0.3 % to 31.6 %), and sea salt with sulfate (∼ 2.4 % to 31.5 %). We used a tilted stage interfaced within an environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) to determine the phase states of individual submicron particles. We found that most particles (∼ 47 % to 99 %) were in the liquid state at the time of collection due to inorganic inclusions. Moreover, we also observed substantial fractions of solid and semisolid particles (∼ 0 % to 30 % and ∼ 1 % to 42 %, respectively) during different transport patterns and events, reflecting the particles' phase-state variability for different atmospheric transport events and sources. Combining phase state measurements with FLEXPART CO tracer analysis, we found that wildfire-influenced plumes can result in particles with a wide range of viscosities after long-range transport in the free troposphere. We also used temperature and RH values extracted from the Global Forecast System (GFS) along the FLEXPART-simulated path to predict the phase state of the particles during transport and found that neglecting internal mixing with inorganics would lead to an overestimation of the viscosity of free tropospheric particles. Our findings warrant future investigation aiming at the quantitative assessment of the influence of internal mixing on the phase states of the individual particles. This study also provides insights into the chemical composition and phase state of free tropospheric particles, which can help models to reduce uncertainties about the effects of ambient aerosol particles on climate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2015

An Evaluation of Image Based Techniques for Early Wildfire Detection and Fuel Mapping

Few events can cause the catastrophic impact to ecology, infrastructure, and human safety of a wildland fire along the wildland urban interface. The suppression of natural wildland fires over the past decade has caused a buildup of dry, dead surface fuels: a condition that, coupled with the right weather conditions, can cause large destructive wildfires that are capable of threatening both ancient tree stands and manmade infrastructure. Firefighters use fire danger models to determine staffing needs on high fire risk days; however models are only as effective as the spatial and temporal density of their observations. OKFIRE, an Oklahoma initiative created by a partnership between Oklahoma State University and the University of Oklahoma, has proven that fire danger assessments close to the fire – both geographically and temporally – can give firefighters a significant increase in their situational awareness while fighting a wildland fire. This paper investigates several possible solutions for a small Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) which could gather information useful for detecting ground fires and constructing fire danger maps. Multiple fire detection and fuel mapping programs utilize satellites, manned aircraft, and large UAS equipped with hyperspectral sensors to gather useful information. Their success provides convincing proof of the utility that could be gained from low-altitude UAS gathering information at the exact time and place firefighters and land managers are interested in. Close proximity, both geographically and operationally, to the end can reduce latency times below what could ever be possible with satellite observation. This paper expands on recent advances in computer vision, photogrammetry, and infrared and color imagery to develop a framework for a next-generation UAS which can assess fire danger and aid firefighters in real time as they observe, contain, or extinguish wildland fires. It also investigates the impact information gained by this system could have on pre-fire risk assessments through the development of very high resolution fuel maps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Study of Cu 2 O particle morphology on microwave field enhancement

The dielectric enhancement and modulation of a cuprous oxide (Cu 2 O) microwave-active catalyst material is investigated from an experimental and computational point of view. Experimental synthesis of two particle morphologies that included a cube and spike were carried out using an EDTA hydrothermal synthesis method. The permittivity for the spiked particles at low volume fraction in a paraffin composite exhibited a 20% increase when compared to the cube-shaped particles at the same volume fraction. Using a finite difference time domain (FDTD) simulation, the improvement in permittivity was attributed to the enhanced electric field near the tip of the spike particles and the neighboring interaction at higher volume fractions. The increased electric field at the tips of the particles induces a change in polarizability (dipole density) within the matrix material, which increases the effective dielectric properties of the composite. Moreover, it was determined that an electrically conductive particle within a high permittivity matrix material is advantageous for generating high localized electric fields that can be utilized for microwave-assisted catalytic reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Building Intelligent Cyberinfrastructure to Learn Iteratively from both Observations and Models for Understanding Watershed Dynamics

Focal Area(s): Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI-driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: Watershed processes, such as the fate and transport of sediment, carbon and nutrients across landscapes and their fluxes to water bodies (e.g., streams, rivers and lakes), have important implications for global and regional carbon and nutrient dynamics, biogeochemical functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and soil functions. The magnitude of lateral surface/subsurface transport and fluxes of sediment, carbon and nutrients are key factors controlling the vulnerability of watersheds to climate extremes such as droughts, wildfires, and floods. Recent field observations and other scientific evidence suggest that the magnitudes of lateral transport and fluxes of sediment, carbon and nutrients are governed primarily by the spatial and vertical heterogeneity of landscape and soil properties and by pedogenic processes. However, the current generation of land surface and watershed models do not mechanistically couple the terrestrial and hydrologic systems, nor do they represent sufficiently the spatial and vertical heterogeneity of land surface and subsurface properties. On the other hand, increasing complexity of coupled watershed and land surface models requires more data to parameterize, calibrate and validate. Remote sensing (RS) provides a means to acquire spatial data and characterize their heterogeneity at the watershed scale, overcoming a major limitation associated with conventional point measurements. To improve the representation of land-surface and surface/subsurface process coupling and sub-grid heterogeneity in watershed models, it is essential to build our predictive understanding by learning from both the multi-scale multi-process modeling and diverse multi-scale data while leveraging powerful artificial intelligence (AI) techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reducing Exposures to Airborne Particles Through Improved Filtration: A High-Level Modeling Analysis

Indoor airborne particulates are well-known health hazards and filtration is one common method of reducing exposures. Based on our previously developed Regional Shelter Analysis methodology and parameters that characterize the existing US building stock, we perform a high-level assessment of the potential benefits of upgrading existing filters in furnace and in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems using off-the-shelf filters. We use three metrics to assess the improvement: Building Transmission Factor (a measure of protection against outdoor airborne particles), Indoor Normalized Time and Space Integrated Air Concentration (a measure of indoor exposure to indoor-origin airborne particles), and Building Exit Fraction (fraction of indoor airborne particles that are released to the outdoor atmosphere). We also discuss the potential reduction in regional exposures due to particles exiting the building and exposing downwind building occupants. Our modeling indicates that while buildings provide their occupants passive protection against airborne particulate hazards, including but not limited to PM 2.5 , PM 10 , and wildfire smoke; improving particle filtration efficiency may further improve this protection. The degree of improvement varies with particle size and building type. Of the building types studied, apartments are predicted to benefit most, with greater than a factor of 2 improvement (≥50% reduction in exposures) for 1 µm particle exposures when using MERV 7 to 12 rated filters. Non-residential buildings were notably less responsive to improved filtration but had the highest Building Exit Fractions with 30% to 40% of indoor airborne particles released to the outdoor atmosphere (apartment buildings only released 6% to 9%). Improvements predicted for single family homes were intermediate between apartments and non-residential buildings. Improvements in the Regional Exposure metric are larger, ranging from a factor of 2.5x to 10x for residences (when using MERV 7 to 12 rated filters) and up to 25x for large apartments with MERV 14 or 15 rated filters. The results of our modeling analysis are broadly consistent with the limited experimental data and modeling results available in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Fire Community Observatory: Interdisciplinary, AI-informed Post-Fire Rapid Response for Improved Water Cycle Science at Watershed Scale

Wildfire is an ecological disturbance that disrupts the hydrological cycle. In the past few years, a record number of multiple-and-compounding fires have occurred across urban-wildland gradients in the Western United States. Changes to watershed hydrological partitioning in response to fires (infiltration, runoff, evapotranspiration) presents unprecedented challenges to “Water-in-the-West” through negative impacts to water supply and its quality, and is a direct threat to downstream communities, groundwater, and drinking water supply infrastructure. While much work is being done to advance Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) use during fires for emergency response (i.e. predict fire movement, direct evacuations), significant potential exists to use AI/ML to address three scientific grand challenges that are rarely addressed in a convergent science context: 1) how to enhance the potential resiliency of a landscape before fire(s), 2) how to cost-effectively and optimally monitor watershed changes after fires, and 3) how to predict future hydrological and biogeochemical trajectories in fire-impacted watershed given climate change. This whitepaper addresses DOE Focal Area 1: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2011

The Effects of Disturbance and Climate on Carbon Storage and the Exchanges of CO 2 Water Vapor and Energy Exchange of Evergreen Coniferous Forests in the Pacific Northwest: Integration of Eddy Flux, Plant and Soil Measurements at a Cluster of Supersites. Final report

This is the final technical report containing a summary of all findings with regard to the following objectives of the project: (1) To quantify and understand the effects of wildfire on carbon storage and the exchanges of energy, CO2, and water vapor in a chronosequence of ponderosa pine (disturbance gradient); (2) To investigate the effects of seasonal and interannual variation in climate on carbon storage and the exchanges of energy, CO2, and water vapor in mature conifer forests in two climate zones: mesic 40-yr old Douglas-fir and semi-arid 60-yr old ponderosa pine (climate gradient); (3) To reduce uncertainty in estimates of CO2 feedbacks to the atmosphere by providing an improved model formulation for existing biosphere-atmosphere models; and (4) To provide high quality data for AmeriFlux and the NACP on micrometeorology, meteorology, and biology of these systems. Objective (1): A study integrating satellite remote sensing, AmeriFlux data, and field surveys in a simulation modeling framework estimated that the pyrogenic carbon emissions, tree mortality, and net carbon exchange associated with four large wildfires that burned ~50,000 hectares in 2002-2003 were equivalent to 2.4% of Oregon statewide anthropogenic carbon emissions over the same two-year period. Most emissions were from the combustion of the forest floor and understory vegetation, and only about 1% of live tree mass was combusted on average. Objective (2): A study of multi-year flux records across a chronosequence of ponderosa pine forests yielded that the net carbon uptake is over three times greater at a mature pine forest compared with young pine. The larger leaf area and wetter and cooler soils of the mature forest mainly caused this effect. A study analyzing seven years of carbon and water dynamics showed that interannual and seasonal variability of net carbon exchange was primarily related to variability in growing season length, which was a linear function of plant-available soil moisture in spring and early summer. A multi-year drought (2001-2003) led to a significant reduction of net ecosystem exchange due to carry-over effects in soil moisture and carbohydrate reserves in plant-tissue. In the same forest, the interannual variability in the rate carbon is lost from the soil and forest floor is considerable and related to the variability in tree growth as much as it is to variability in soil climatic conditions. Objective (3): Flux data from the mature ponderosa pine site support a physical basis for filtering nighttime data with friction velocity above the canopy. An analysis of wind fields and heat transport in the subcanopy at the mesic 40-year old Douglas site yielded that the non-linear structure and behavior of spatial temperature gradients and the flow field require enhanced sensor networks to estimate advective fluxes in the subcanopy of forest to close the surface energy balance in forests. Reliable estimates for flux uncertainties are needed to improve model validation and data assimilation in process-based carbon models, inverse modeling studies and model-data synthesis, where the uncertainties may be as important as the fluxes themselves. An analysis of the time scale dependence of the random and flux sampling error yielded that the additional flux obtained by increasing the perturbation timescale beyond about 10 minutes is dominated by random sampling error, and therefore little confidence can be placed in its value. Artificial correlation between gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) is a consequence of flux partitioning of eddy covariance flux data when GEP is computed as the difference between NEE and computed daytime Re (e.g. using nighttime Re extrapolated into daytime using soil or air temperatures). Tower-data must be adequately spatially averaged before comparison to gridded model output as the time variability of both is inherently different. The eddy-covariance data collected at the mature ponderosa pine site and the mesic Douglas fir site were used to develop and evaluate a new method to extract the signal of ecosystem respiration directly from daytime net ecosystem exchange. This approach may help reducing uncertainty in carbon budgets by providing direct measurements of ecosystem respiration during daylight conditions by replacing modeled estimates. Objective (4): We submitted our flux and biological and ancillary data to the AmeriFlux web site and to Fluxnet. This includes atmospheric carbon, water, and heat fluxes, soil fluxes, NPP, carbon stocks, LAI, and disturbance history. Fluxnet is updating the original La Thuile files and will include the more recent years of data. They will be using a new approach to compute GPP, following discussions within the network about the need to improve GPP methodology

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Aerial Lidar and Geomorphic Change Detection Software- Tools for Monitoring Canyon Sediments at LANL - 18668

The Los Alamos National Laboratory Environmental Remediation program has conducted extensive geomorphic surveys of sediment deposits in the canyon bottoms within and surrounding the facility. The goal of the geomorphic surveys was to provide basic information needed to characterize chemical inventories of the sediments downstream of historical release sites. Sediment units were mapped based on depositional setting and age. Representative characterization samples were collected for each unit and submitted for chemical analysis. Chemical inventories were estimated by calculating the total volume of each depositional unit and multiplying by average chemical concentration. This method of characterization provides a spatial distribution of chemical data based on fluvial processes. In general, for the canyon bottom sediments, the higher concentrations of industrial chemicals were associated with fine-grained floodplain deposits closest to the source. Since initial characterization, many of the reaches have undergone changes in response to post-wildfire floods and severe rain events. These events impacted the channel and floodplain deposits. Much of the elevated concentrations are confined to the over-bank deposits distal from the primary channel. In order to ensure that the sediment units containing elevated chemical concentrations are stable, repeat aerial light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys are conducted and changes are assessed using the Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) plug-in for ArcGIS. These tools provide high confidence uncertainty estimates and extensive areal coverage. This is a valuable method for long-term monitoring of surface sediments with low-level but widespread contaminant distributions. All of the monitored canyon bottom reaches pass risk assessment and present technically infeasible sediment removal options. Following the 2014 monsoon season, aerial LiDAR data has been collected annually and the resulting digital elevation models (DEMs) processed using the GCD method. Changes are identified using GCD and are verified by field walk downs. If erosion is identified in areas which are vulnerable to mobilizing contaminated sediment, enhanced controls can be installed to stabilize banks or other areas with high erosion potential. Annual sediment monitoring samples are collected where there is evidence for flow and deposition within the past year. Since 2014, no severe floods have been catalogued using the LiDAR surveys and GCD software. The recent rainfall/runoff events have not caused major changes to the canyon bottom channels and floodplains. Geomorphic processes identified in the monitoring results include channel aggradation and incision that over the course of a monsoon season results in minor changes to the system. Other active processes contributing to observed changes are minor slides, flows, slumps, and falls of unconsolidated sediment on steep bedrock or soil surfaces. A comprehensive baseline has been established by geomorphic mapping and characterization sampling. Periodic monitoring consists of LiDAR surveys and GCD analysis which offers an effective and defensible methodology for documenting stability of surface sediments. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗