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Cold Weather Impacts on Electric School Bus Performance in Aurora, Colorado

This brief highlight details the key takeaways from a project that utilized NLR's Fleet Research, Energy Data, and Insights (FleetREDI) data analysis pipeline related to electric school bus (ESB) operation. ESBs using battery energy as their primary heating source have a higher energy consumption rate in cold weather, which fleet managers can account for when planning ESB purchases and making dispatching and charging decisions. Researchers found that electric school buses operate 2-5 times more efficiently than conventional buses, on average. Cold weather can double electric school bus energy demands, but strategies such as thermal pre-conditioning significantly reduce this effect. Understanding these impacts can help fleets plan charging, dispatching, and purchase decisions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Tactical Versus Strategic Behavior: General Aviation Piloting in Convective Weather Scenarios

We commonly describe environments and behavioral responses to environmental conditions as 'tactical' and 'strategic.' However theoretical research defining relevant environmental characteristics is rare, as are empirical investigations that would inform such theory. This paper discusses General Aviation (GA) pilots' descriptions of tactical/strategic conditions with respect to weather flying, and evaluates their ratings along a tactical/strategic scale in response to real convective weather scenarios experienced during a flight experiment with different weather information cues. Perceived risk was significantly associated with ratings for all experimental conditions. In addition, environmental characteristics were found to be predictive of ratings for Traditional IMC (instrument meteorological conditions), i.e., aural weather information only, and Traditional VMC (visual meteorological conditions), i.e., aural information and an external view. The paper also presents subjects' comments regarding use of Graphical Weather Information Systems (GWISs) to support tactical and strategic weather flying decisions and concludes with implications for the design and use of GWISs.

Latorella, Kara A.

Ocean alkalinity and the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary

A biogeochemical cycle model resolving ocean carbon and alkalinity content is applied to the Maestrichtian and Danian. The model computes oceanic concentrations and distributions of Ca(2+), Mg(2+), and Sigma-CO2. From these values an atmospheric pCO2 value is calculated, which is used to estimate rates of terrestrial weathering of calcite, dolomite, and calcium and magnesium silicates. Metamorphism of carbonate rocks and the subsequent outgassing of CO2 to the atmosphere are parameterized in terms of carbonate rock reservoir sizes, total land area, and a measure of overall tectonic activity, the sea-floor generation rate. The ocean carbon reservoir computed by the model is used with Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) C-13 data to estimate organic detrital fluxes under a variety of ocean mixing rate assumptions. Using Redfield ratios, the biogenic detrital flux estimate is used to partition the ocean carbon and alkalinity reservoirs between the mixed layer and deep ocean. The calcite flux estimate and carbonate ion concentrations are used to determine the rate of biologically mediated CaCO3 titration. Oceanic productivity was severely limited for approximately 500 kyr following the K/T boundary resulting in significant increases in total ocean alkalinity. As productivity returned to the ocean, excess carbon and alkalinity was removed from the ocean as CaCO3. Model runs indicate that this resulted in a transient imbalance in the other direction. Ocean chemistry returned to near-equilibrium by about 64 mybp.

Caldeira, K. G.

Depth of nutrient uptake by deep-rooted plants is regulated by water availability

The capacity of some plants to access water and nutrients at depths greater than one meter is a critical functional trait that confers resistance to drought and impacts both belowground and shallow soil processes. Here, we report water and strontium isotopic data from an alpine meadow transect showing the correlation between water and nutrient acquisition depths. The isotopic compositions of Sr ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratio) and water in rock and soil, and in plant leaf tissues, reveal that deeper-rooted plants acquire a higher proportion of water, Sr, and cation nutrients that are derived from the saprolite, a zone of silicate weathering, than shallow-rooted grass. A three-decade dendrochemical record reveals that reductions of wet precipitation drive deep-rooted plants to acquire cation nutrients from deeper saprolite or bedrock regions. Thus, the depth of cation nutrient acquisition by deep-rooted plant species at this site is tightly coupled with, and likely determined by, water availability in soil, saprolite, and bedrock. The enhanced uptake of cations as well as water from deeper saprolite zones could impact the rate of bedrock weathering and watershed chemistry during drought.

biogeochemistry

Direct satellite observations on bremsstrahlung radiation as a technique to investigate its role in meteorological processes

It was suggested that bremsstrahlung radiation associated with strong auroras (in turn associated with geomagnetic disturbances) may cause increased ionization near the 300-millibar level, which, in turn, leads to the formation of cirrus clouds. These clouds could modify the outgoing black body radiation rates and influence weather patterns. The first satellite observations on bremsstrahlung radiation produced in the atmosphere by precipitating energetic electrons are discussed. This type of observation affords the possibility of directly monitoring the bremsstrahlung energy input to the lower atmosphere over large segments of earth and at frequent intervals. Detailed measurements on the spatial and energy distributions of the bremsstrahlung radiation are feasible with present techniques, and satellite data on widespread bremsstrahlung events are presented and discussed. From comparison of the ion production rates from cosmic rays with those calculated from bremsstrahlung from precipitating energetic electrons, it is concluded that bremsstrahlung radiation is a negligible contributor to the ionization near the 300-millibar level.

Johnson, R. G.

Weathering processes implied from analysis of small Martian avalanche chutes

It has been proposed that the smaller features of martian spur and gully slope morphology, located along the upper walls of Valles Marineris, are avalanche chutes. A three-dimensional stability back-analysis technique was developed and applied to these small avalanche chutes, yielding average values of cohesion and angle of internal friction for the mobile layer materials on these slopes at the time of each slope failure. Generally, the analysis showed that at the time of each slope failure material strengths had been reduced to those of moderately cohesive debris down through depths of tens of meters. These results have implications and possible constraints for the nature and rate of martian weathering processes.

Sullivan, R.

IM3 Data Center Driven Grid Stress Dataset for the U.S. Western Interconnection

This dataset provides projected grid stress and reliability results (including all model inputs and outputs from an open-source grid operations modeling framework - GO), for the Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project, under varying levels of data center demand growth between 2025 and 2035 in the U.S. Western Interconnection. The scenarios and sensitivity experiments are combinations of different data center demand growth rates and energy, weather, population and economic pathways. Data center demand growth projections were sourced from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The data center demand growth projection names are: Low (3.71% annual data center demand growth) Moderate (5% annual data center demand growth) High (10% annual data center demand growth) Higher (15% annual data center demand growth) Energy, weather, population and economic pathways are informed by two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) following the hotter general circulation model (GCM) forcing group from a set of perturbed thermodynamics simulations. The resulting pathway names are: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The main scenarios and sensitivity experiments are detailed below. Reference scenario: The projected grid stress and reliability results for the U.S. Western Interconnection from a previous study. This scenario does not consider data center demand growth explicitly. Data center scenario: Building on the reference scenario, this scenario considers various data center growth rates and how they impact the U.S. Western Interconnection. Data center loads are modeled as flat 8760-hr profiles. This scenario does not consider new generation and transmission capacities specifically designed to meet the new data center demands. The related folder is named "flat". Delayed generator retirements sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different levels of natural gas and nuclear generator retirement delays. The resulting scenario names are: (1) postponing 100% nuclear retirements; (2) postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements; (3) postponing only 50% natural gas retirements; (4) postponing 100% nuclear and 50% natural gas retirements; (5) postponing 100% nuclear and 75% natural gas retirements; and (6) postponing 100% nuclear and 100% natural gas retirements. The related folder names are: no_gen_retire_0_gas, no_gen_retire_25_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas_only, no_gen_retire_75_gas, and no_gen_retire_100_gas. Demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different participation and compensation levels of data center demand response. The resulting scenario names are: (1) 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (2) 5% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; (3) 5% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation; (4) 15% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (5) 15% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; and (6) 15% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation. The related folder names are: dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5, and dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_15. Combination of delayed generator retirements and demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: The impact of combining postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements with 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation is simulated. The related folder is named "dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5_nuc_100_gas_25". Please refer to the README file for a detailed description of the dataset including individual files and references.

Artificial Intelligence

Space Weathering at the Moon

In this paper we summarize the substantial recent progress in understanding space weathering that has occurred through technical innovations in the laboratory and in space, including employment of ultra-high-resolution imaging of lunar samples, a wave of new remote sensing observations, samples returned from asteroid regolith, and new methods for simulating space weathering to gain insight into its mechanisms. The paper begins with a summary of space weathering processes and their observed effects on lunar samples (Section 2). It then describes new insights gleaned from remote sensing at a broadened range of wavelengths (Section 3.1) and from observations of special lunar environments where space weathering inputs vary, such as the intensity of solar wind at lunar swirls or in permanent shadow in polar regions (Section 3.2). We then outline how laboratory simulations have informed the understanding of space weathering mechanisms and rates (Section 4). Finally, we discuss the integrated observations and simulations and the current state of our knowledge (Section 5) and make suggestions for future investigations (Section 6).

moon

Probabilistic Analysis of Impact of Wake Vortices on Closely-Spaced Parallel Approaches

One of the primary constraints on the capacity of the nation's air transportation system is the landing capacity of its largest airports. Many airports with closely spaced parallel runways suffer a severe runway acceptance rate when the weather conditions do not allow full utilization of these parallel runways. The present requirement for simultaneous independent landings in Instrument Meteorological Conditions, IMC, is at least 4300 feet of lateral runway spacing (as close as 3000 feet for runways with a Precision Runway Monitor). Operations in Visual Meteorological Conditions, VMC, to Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches only require a lateral runway spacing greater than 750 feet. A study by Hardy and Lewis integrated and extended earlier studies and concepts in lateral traffic separation, longitudinal station keeping, wake prediction, wake display, and the concepts of R N P into a preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches in IMC. This system allows IMC airport acceptance rates to approach those for VMC. The system concept that was developed, presented traffic and wake information on the NAVigation Display, NAV, and developed operational procedures for a mix of conventional and Runway Independent Aircraft with different approach speeds to Closely Spaced Parallel Runways. This paper first describes some improvements made on the technology needed to better predict and formulate a probabilistic representation for the time-dependent motion and spreading of the hazardous region associated with the lift-generated vortex wakes of preceding aircraft. In this way, the time at which the vortex wakes of leading aircraft intrude into the airspace of adjacent flight-corridor/runway combinations can be more reliably predicted. Such a prediction is needed because it determines restraints to be placed on in-trail separation distances; or, the allowable time intervals between aircraft executing nearly simultaneous landings or takeoffs on very closely-spaced runways. Improved estimates of wake spreading are achieved by inclusion of representations in the equations for wake spreading due to ambient turbulence and due to the long-wave instability of a vortex pair. Wake motion and spreading due to the time-averaged wind and its variations with time, are retained. The more detailed representation of wake spreading presented here permits the development of probabilistically-based uncertainty estimates for wake spreading. Measurements needed within actual aircraft wake vortices to validate and support this analysis are also described. The second part of the paper uses the improvements in the accuracy of the location of wake vortices to extend the preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches described earlier with more robust operational procedures. Additionally, improvements in longitudinal station keeping, wake display, and risk assessment methodologies are incorporated and described.

Hardy, Gordon H.

Use of TOPSAR digital elevation data to determine the 3-dimensional shape of an alluvial fan

Landforms in arid regions record the interplay between tectonic forces and climate. Alluvial fans are a common landform in desert regions where the rate of uplift is greater than weathering or sedimentation. Changes in uplift rate or climatic conditions can lead to isolation of the currently forming fan surface through entrenchment and construction of another fan either further from the mountain front (decreased uplift or increased runoff) or closer to the mountain front (increased uplift or decreased runoff). Thus, many alluvial fans are made up of a mosaic of fan units of different age, some older than 1 million years. For this reason, determination of the stages of fan evolution can lead to a history of uplift and runoff. In an attempt to separate the effects of tectonic (uplift) and climatic (weathering, runoff, sedimentation) processes on the shapes of alluvial fan units, a modified conic equation developed by Troeh (1965) was fitted to TOPSAR digital topographic data for the Trail Canyon alluvial fan in Death Valley, California. This allows parameters for the apex position, slope, and radial curvature to be compared with unit age.

Farr, Tom G.

Large-scale simulation-based parametric analysis of an optimal precooling strategy for demand flexibility in a commercial office building

Achieving success with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) is closely tied to the utilization of flexible loads. A valuable strategy involves the implementation of precooling techniques before high-demand events, such as peak hours, by adjusting zone air temperature setpoints. This leads to a reduction in thermal loads and peak electricity demand during these times, as the building’s thermal mass stores and subsequently releases thermal energy. However, the effectiveness of the pre-cooling optimization is highly contingent on specific conditions such as building thermal properties, weather conditions, utility rate structure, HVAC equipment sizing, etc. Therefore, investigating the impacts of these condition-specific factors is crucial, especially when considering precooling strategies that utilize thermal mass in commercial buildings. In this paper, we first devised a novel heuristic control approach that incorporates parameterized optimal precooling thermostat schedules to enhance demand flexibility in a commercial office building. Subsequently, we conducted a thorough performance evaluation of this control strategy. Here, the optimal thermostat schedule was parameterized using three optimization variables: the precooling start time, the precooling end time, and the precooling temperature setpoint. Utilizing the DOE medium-sized office building as the virtual testbed, we showed that the parameterized schedule effectively approximates model predictive control and requires drastically reduced computational overhead. In addition, we investigated the impact of different influencing factors on the optimal precooling strategy. These factors include building thermal mass, outdoor air conditions, and energy price profiles. Using high-performance computing, we simulated a total of 225 scenarios, consisting of three levels of thermal mass, five typical outdoor air temperature profiles, and fifteen time-of-use price plans. The results demonstrate that optimal thermostat scheduling could save substantial energy cost in medium-sized office buildings with heavy thermal mass but with some energy penalty. Although the potential for cost savings is lower in buildings with low and medium thermal mass, the energy penalty remains consistent in all three thermal mass scenarios. The study also highlights the need to account for zone diversity and recognize that a one-size-fits-all-zone setpoint schedule may not be suitable for all zones and can lead to unnecessary energy wastage. Furthermore, the results highlight that while outdoor air conditions play a role in cost and energy performance, the cooling load exerts a more immediate and substantial influence on cost savings in precooling strategies. Although cost savings are comparable under certain conditions with the same cooling load, observed deviations in energy penalty indicate potential disparities in the efficiency of the HVAC system during the load-shifting process. In addition, the duration of peak pricing and the ratio between peak and off-peak times exhibit clear correlations with cost savings and energy consumption, aligning with intuitive expectations. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing precooling strategies in office buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Planetary geomorphology field studies: Iceland and Antarctica

Field studies of terrestrial landforms and the processes that shape them provide new directions to the study of planetary features. These studies, conducted in Iceland and in Antarctica, investigated physical and chemical weathering mechanisms and rates, eolitan processes, mudflow phenomena, drainage development, and catastrophic fluvial and volcanic phenomena. Continuing investigations in Iceland fall in three main catagories: (1) catastrophic floods of the Jokulsa a Fjollum, (2) lahars associated with explosive volcanic eruptions of Askja caldera, and (3) rates of eolian abrasion in cold, volcanic deserts. The ice-free valleys of Antarctica, in particular those in South Victoria Land, have much is common with the surface of Mars. In addition to providing independent support for the application of the Iceland findings to consideration of the martian erosional system, the Antarctic observations also provide analogies to other martian phenomena. For example, a family of sand dunes in Victoria Valley are stabilized by the incorporation of snow as beds.

Malin, M. C.

The case for a wet, warm climate on early Mars

Arguments are presented in support of the idea that Mars possessed a dense CO2 atmosphere and a wet, warm climate early in its history. The plausibility of a CO2 greenhouse is tested by formulating a simple model of the CO2 geochemical cycle on early Mars. By scaling the rate of silicate weathering on Earth, researchers estimated a weathering time constant of the order of several times 10 to the 7th power years for early Mars. Thus, a dense atmosphere could have existed for a geologically significant time period (approx. 10 to the 9th power years) only if atmospheric CO2 was being continuously resupplied. The most likely mechanism by which this could have been accomplished is the thermal decomposition of carbonate rocks induced directly or indirectly by intense, global scale volcanism.

Pollack, J. B.

A photochemical model of the martian atmosphere

The factors governing the amounts of CO, O2, and O3 in the martian atmposphere are investigated using a minimally constrained, one-dimensional photochemical model. We find that the incorporation of temperature-dependent CO2 absorption cross sections leads to an enhancement in the water photolysis rate, increasing the abundance of OH radicals to the point where the model CO abundance is smaller that observed. Good agreement between models and observations of CO, O2, O3, and the escape flux of atomic hydrogen can be achieved, using only gas-phase chemistry, by varying the recommended rate constraints for the reaction CO + OH and OH + HO2 within their specified uncertainties. The oxygen escape flux plays a key role in the oxygen budget on Mars; as inferred from the observed atomic hydrogen escape, it is much larger than recent calculations of the exospheric escape rate for oxygen. Weathering of the surface may account for the imbalance. We also consider the possiblity that HO(x) radicals may be catalytically destroyed on dust grains suspended in the atmosphere. Good agreement with the observed CO mixing ratio can be achieved via this mechanism, but the resulting ozone column is much higher than the observed quantity.

Nair, Hari

A Strategy for Successful Deep Space Information Transmission in Bad Weather

To retrieve data during bad weather, most missions slow the data rate to accommodate a certain amount of attenuation, or to allow for all but a very small percentage of all-weather conditions. This system has two well-known and balancing disadvantages: no data is received reliably during very bad weather, and the data rate is slowed during good weather. A system of processing is described that encodes the most critical data more heavily, allowing it to be retrieved under bad conditions, while at the same time allowing most of the data to be sent at a higher data rate.

Swanson, L.

Optimizing Air Traffic - Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Flight Path Planning and 3D Airspace Visualization for Air Traffic Control

Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems are vital components of the National Airspace System (NAS). ATC, Airport Traffic Control Towers (ATCT), and Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) are responsible for directing all flights departing from and arriving at airports, managing our nation’s airspace, preventing potential accidents, and ensuring that every flight is accounted for. However, these systems often face challenges in effectively monitoring the skies. Issues such as poor communication between operators, difficulty in performing operations, and the constant need for vigilance frequently burden ATC operators. Additionally, the projected increase in air traffic in the coming years will only exacerbate the stress associated with this role. To address these issues, we propose a system that assists ATC operators in situations such as handovers, emergencies, and routing aircraft to avoid weather hazards. Our solution includes an Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)-based Flight Pathways Planning System (FPPS) designed to find the fastest and most optimal routes for aircraft, taking into account weather conditions, restricted terrain, and Extended-Range Twin-Engine Operational Performance Standards (ETOPS) ratings. The proposed Predictive Weather Planning Model, included in FPPS, adjusts routes based on real-time and forecasted weather conditions. Additionally, our NVIDIA Omniverse 3D Visualization System offers a highly interactive environment for better visualization and a clear view of the airspace. By incorporating these systems, the roles of ATC, ATCT, and TRACON operators will become more manageable and less stressful, equipping them to efficiently handle the growing density of airspace.

Regina Ayoubi

Quantitative Aspects of Space Weathering: Implications for Regolith Breccia Meteorites and Asteroids

Space weathering is defined as the physical and optical changes incurred by material exposed to the space environment. Through studies of lunar soils, these changes are becoming well understood. However, the effects of space weathering are dependent on the physical environment to which the host materials are exposed, and thus, the effects will likely vary from body to body. The optical effects of space weathering result from nanophase iron (npFe(sup 0)) created during micrometeorite bombardment and solar wind sputtering. In the asteroid belt, bodies are farther from the sun than our Moon, and are widely known to incur less solar wind implantation and sputtering. The velocity of impacts is smaller resulting in less melting and vaporization, and therefore fewer space weathering products. The impact rate in the asteroid belt is greater, which will result in more comminution, further diluting any weathering products. Ergo, asteroidal regoliths should contain fewer space weathering products than lunar soils. However, even very small degrees of space weathering can have dramatic consequences for the optical properties of soils. A discussion on the optical effects of space weathering is presented.

Noble, S. K.

Hourly dynamic line ratings for existing transmission across the contiguous United States (preliminary results) [Slides]

The thermal rating of a transmission line depends on the rate at which heat generated by current flow through the line can be dissipated into the environment by convective and radiative cooling, keeping the conductor below a maximum operating temperature. Static or seasonal line ratings assume nearly-worst-case weather conditions (high ambient air temperature, high solar irradiance, and low wind speed), resulting in a low risk of "overrating" a line (i.e., allowing more current to flow than the line is designed for) but a high fraction of time when the line is "underrated" (i.e., able to flow more current while staying below the maximum temperature). Dynamic transmission line ratings (DLR) use real-time measurements of weather conditions, line sag, or line temperature to determine the thermal rating of transmission lines at hourly or higher time resolution, allowing for increased ratings during some (cold, windy, and/or dark) periods and correcting for overrating during other (hot, calm, and/or sunny) periods. Many studies have explored the benefits of DLR, but typically for small collections of transmission lines under a limited sample of weather conditions, leaving open the question of how widely applicable the benefits of DLR might be over diverse geographies and weather conditions. Here, we combine geospatial data on tens of thousands of transmission line routes across the contiguous United States with high-resolution hourly historical weather data for 2007-2013 to estimate the impact of DLR and other weather-adjusted rating systems. We compare static and dynamic line ratings to intermediate ratings adjusted by ambient temperature, day/night irradiance, clear-sky irradiance, and/or measured irradiance, illustrating the benefits of incorporating progressively more detailed weather data into the calculated line ratings. Moving from nighttime-adjusted ratings to clear-sky-adjusted ratings provides more benefit than moving from clear-sky-adjusted ratings to measured-irradiance-adjusted ratings. Depending on the assumed static windspeed for irradiance-adjusted-ratings, DLR either corrects for overrated hours or provides substantially increased ratings in the majority of hours on the majority of lines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY