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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Induced activation study of LDEF

Analysis of the induced radioactivity of LDEF is continuing with extraction of specific activities for various spacecraft materials. Data and results of activation measurements from eight national facilities are being collected for interpretation. The major activation mechanisms in LDEF components is the proton flux in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) inner radiation belt. This flux is highly anisotropic, and exposes the west side of the spacecraft to higher radiation doses. The directionally dependent activation due to these protons has clearly been observed in the data from Al experiment tray clamps, steel trunnions, and is also indicated by the presence of a variety of radioisotopes in other materials. A secondary production mechanism, thermal neutron capture, was observed in two materials having large capture cross sections, Co and Ta. The neutrons could be thermalized in nearby low Z material, although this has yet to be verified. Specific activities are presented for a number of materials which show SAA effects and thermal neutron capture. Trends are examined in the measured results that show the effect of shielding and non-SAA related activation.

Harmon, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The sensitivity of a general circulation model to Saharan dust heating

During the Northern summer, sporadic outbreaks of wind borne Saharan dust are carried out over the Atlantic by the tropical easterlies. Optical depths due to the dust can reach 3 near the African coast, and the dust cloud can be detected as far west as the Caribbean Sea (Carlson, 1979). In order to obtain insight into the possible effects of Saharan dust on the weather and climate of North Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean, simulation experiments have been performed with the Climate Model of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences. The most recent version of the model is described by Randall (1982). The model produces realistic simulations of many aspects of the observed climate and its seasonal variation.

Randall, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Marine Magnetic Anomalies and the Reconstruction of the World

Until the middle of the 20th century little was known about magnetic anomalies in the oceans. Then it was discovered that there are relatively large anomalies in most of the oceans and they were unrelated to any geological structure known at that time. In the early 1950's large anomalies had been found over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and linear anomalies over the eastern continental shelf of North America and, shortly after that, off the west coast. A survey of the ridge south of Iceland showed that the anomalies were linear, parallel to the ridge axis, and symmetrical about the axis. Using the theory that the anomalies were caused by geomagnetic field reversals and seafloor spreading it was possible to greatly extend the time scale of geomagnetic reversals, to determine the velocity of seafloor spreading and estimate the time of opening of the North Atlantic. Lamont had a world-wide collection of marine magnetic profiles. These were used, systematically, to determine the positions of most of the land masses of the world since the beginnings of the world's present oceans.

Heirtzler, James R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Earth observations during Space Shuttle flight STS 50 - Columbia's mission to planet earth (June 25-July 9, 1992)

A review of the imagery acquired during the STS 50 mission of the Space Shuttle is presented. The earth viewing photography from this flight includes photos of dust plumes over several portions of the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean. Over land, prominent dust plumes were seen over Iraq, North Africa, Sudan, and West Africa. The color infrared photography includes images of the tropical rain forests of South America and South and Southeast Asia. Other examples include photographs of floods in Argentina, photos of Lake Chad in Africa, Coastal Madagascar, the Aswan dam and the Nile, geologic features of North Africa, the center pivot irrigation land areas of Saudi Arabia, flooding in Asian rivers, and sediment plumes of South American and South and Southeast Asian coasts.

Lulla, Kamlesh P.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon Rainfall as Simulated in the PlioMIP2 Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.

Mid-Pliocene↗
NASA NTRS2015

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

West Africa↗
NASA NTRS1988

Comment on 'Highly relativistic magnetospheric electrons: A role in coupling to the middle atmosphere?'

It is argued that Baker et al. (1987) may have underestimated the electron precipitation rate in the southern hemisphere in the region extending west to about 90 deg in longitude from the southern extension of the center of the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly (SAGA). In a reply, it is noted that Baker et al. restricted their study to the case of uniform precipitation in latitude and longitude throughout the outer-zone area, thus entailing a great simplification of the real-world situation. Comments are made on the effects of the SAGA on electron precipitation.

Sheldon, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Radiation exposure of LDEF: Initial results

Initial results from Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) include radiation detector measurements from four experiments; P0006, P0004, M0004, and A0015. The detectors were located on both the leading and trailing edges of the orbiter and also at the Earthside end. This allowed the directional dependence of the incoming radiation to be measured. Total absorbed doses from thermoluminescent detectors (TLDs) verified the predicted spatial east-west dose dependence of a factor of approx. 2.5, due to trapped proton anisotropy in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). On the trailing edge of the orbiter, a range of doses from 664 to 291 rad were measured under nominal shielding of 0.42 to 8.45 g/sq cm. A second set of detectors near this locations results are also given. On the leading edge, doses of 258 to 210 rad were found under shielding of 1.25 to 2.48 g/sq cm. Initial charged particle LET (linear energy transfer) spectra, fluxes, doses, and dose equivalents, for LET in H2O greater than or = 5 keV/micron, were measured with plastic nuclear track detectors located in the four experiments. Also, preliminary data on low energy neutrons were obtained from detectors containing (6)LiF foils.

Benton, E. V.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Radiation exposure of LDEF: Initial results

Initial results from LDEF include radiation detector measurements from four experiments, P0006, P0004, M0004, and A0015. The detectors were located on both the leading and trailing edges of the orbiter and also on the Earthside end. This allowed the directional dependence of the incoming radiation to be measured. Total absorbed doses from thermoluminescent detectors (TLDs) verified the predicted spatial east-west dose ratio dependence of a factor approx. 2.5, due to trapped proton anisotropy in the South Atlantic Anomaly. On the trailing edge of the orbiter a range of doses from 6.64 to 2.91 Gy were measured under Al equivalent shielding of 0.42 to 1.11 g/sq cm. A second set of detectors near this location yielded doses of 6.48 to 2.66 Gy under Al equivalent shielding of 0.48 to 15.4 g/sq cm. On the leading edge, doses of 2.58 to 2.10 Gy were found under Al equivalent shielding of 1.37 to 2.90 g/sq cm. Initial charged particle LET (linear energy transfer) spectra, fluxes, doses and dose equivalents, for LET in H2O greater than or = 8 keV/micron, were measured with plastic nuclear track detectors (PNTDs) located in two experiments. Also preliminary data on low energy neutrons were obtained from detectors containing (6)LiF foils.

Benton, E. V.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Environmental Conditions and Threatened and Endangered Species Populations near the Titain, Atlas, and Delta Launch Complexes, Cape Canaveral Air Station

Launches of Delta, Atlas, and Titan rockets from Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) have potential environmental effects. These could occur from direct impacts of launches or indirectly from habitat alterations. This report summarizes a three-year study (1995-1998) characterizing the environment, with particular attention to threatened and endangered species, near Delta, Atlas, and Titan launch facilities. Cape Canaveral has been modified by Air Force development and by 50 years of fire suppression. The dominant vegetation type around the Delta and Atlas launch complexes is coastal oak hammock forest. Oak scrub is the predominant upland vegetation type near the Titan launch complexes. Compositionally, these are coastal scrub communities that has been unburned for greater than 40 years and have developed into closed canopy, low-stature forests. Herbaceous vegetation around active and inactive facilities, coastal strand and dune vegetation near the Atlantic Ocean, and exotic vegetation in disturbed areas are common. Marsh and estuarine vegetation is most common west of the Titan complexes. Launch effects to vegetation include scorch, acid, and particulate deposition. Discernable, cumulative effects are limited to small areas near the launch complexes. Water quality samples were collected at the Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes in September 1995 (wet season) and January 1996 (dry season). Samples were analyzed for heavy metals, chloride, total organic carbon, calcium, iron, magnesium, sodium, total alkalinity, pH, and conductivity. Differences between fresh, brackish, and saline surface waters were evident. The natural buffering capacity of the environment surrounding the CCAS launch complexes is adequate for neutralizing acid deposition in rainfall and launch deposition. Populations of the Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a Federally- listed, threatened species, reside near the launch complexes. Thirty-seven to forty-one scrub-jay territories were located at Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes between 1995 and 1997. No direct impacts to scrub-jays were observed as a result of normal launches. The explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997 caused direct impacts to the habitat of several scrub-jays families, from fire and debris; however, no scrub-jay mortality was observed. Mortality exceeded reproductive output at all areas over the course of the study. Populations of the southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris) populations, a Federally listed, threatened species, reside near all the launch complexes. Hurricane Erin and several other tropical storms impacted several areas at the inception of the study in 1995 causing coastal habitat alterations as a result of salt-water intrusion. Both the habitat and the beach mice populations recovered during the course of the study. No direct impacts to southeastern beach mice were observed as a result of normal launch operations. Direct impacts were observed to the habitat as a result of the explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997. This alteration of the habitant resulted in a shift in use with the mice moving on to the newly burned part of the site. Waterbirds use wetlands and aquatic systems near the launch complexes. Species include the Federally-listed, endangered Wood Stork (Mycteria americana) and several state-listed species of special concern including the Snowy Egret (Egretta thula thula), Reddish Egret (Egretta rufescens rufescens), White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), Roseate Spoonbill (Ajaia ajaja), Tricolored Heron (Egretta tricolor ruficolis), and Little Blue Heron (Egretta caerulea). No impacts to these populations resulting from any launch operations were observed. Gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) also occur around the launch complexes. Most of those observed appeared to be in good condition; however, upper respiratory tract disease is known to occur in the population. Cape Canaveral Air Station, including areas near active launch complexes, remains important habitat for a variety of native plants and animals including threatened and endangered species. Direct negative effects of current launch systems appear limited. Additional monitoring of these populations and habitats is required to determine if subtle, long-term changes are occurring, to determine if new launch systems and facilities cause other effects, and to determine the effects of habitat restoration and management.

Oddy, Donna M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Environmental Conditions and Threatened and Endangered Species Populations near the Titan, Atlas, and Delta Launch Complexes, Cape Canaveral Air Station

Launches of Delta, Atlas, and Titan rockets from Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) have potential environmental effects. These could occur from direct impacts of launches or indirectly from habitat alterations. This report summarizes a three-year study (1 995-1 998) characterizing the environment, with particular attention to threatened and endangered species, near Delta, Atlas, and Titan launch facilities. Cape Canaveral has been modified by Air Force development and by 50 years of fire suppression. The dominant vegetation type around the Delta and Atlas launch complexes is coastal oak hammock forest. Oak scrub is the predominant upland vegetation type near the Titan launch complexes. Compositionally, these are coastal scrub communities that has been unburned for > 40 years and have developed into closed canopy, low-stature forests. Herbaceous vegetation around active and inactive facilities, coastal strand and dune vegetation near the Atlantic Ocean, and exotic vegetation in disturbed areas are common. Marsh and estuarine vegetation is most common west of the Titan complexes. Launch effects to vegetation include scorch, acid, and particulate deposition. Discernable, cumulative effects are limited to small areas near the launch complexes. Water quality samples were collected at the Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes in September 1995 (wet season) and January 1996 (dry season). Samples were analyzed for heavy metals, chloride, total organic carbon, calcium, iron, magnesium, sodium, total alkalinity, pH, and conductivity. Differences between fresh, brackish, and saline surface waters were evident. The natural buffering capacity of the environment surrounding the CCAS launch complexes is adequate for neutralizing acid deposition in rainfall and launch deposition. Populations of the Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a Federally-listed, threatened species, reside near the launch complexes. Thirty-seven to forty-one scrub-jay territories were located at Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes between 1995 and 1997. No direct impacts to scrub-jays were observed as a result of normal launches. The explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997 caused direct impacts to the habitat of several scrub-jays families, from fire and debris; however, no scrub-jay mortality was observed. Mortality exceeded reproductive output at all areas over the course of the study. Populations of the southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris) populations, a Federally listed, threatened species, reside near all the launch complexes. Hurricane Erin and several other tropical storms impacted several areas at the inception of the study in 1995 causing coastal habitat alterations as a result of salt-water intrusion. Both the habitat and the beach mice populations recovered during the course of the study. No direct impacts to southeastern beach mice were observed as a result of normal launch operations. Direct impacts were observed to the habitat as a result of the explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997. This alteration of the habitat resulted in a shift in use with the mice moving on to the newly burned part of the site. Waterbirds use wetlands and aquatic systems near the launch complexes. Species include the Federally-listed, endangered Wood Stork (Mycferia americana) and several state-listed species of special concern including the Snowy Egret (Egretfa thula fhula), Reddish Egret (Egreffa rufescens rufescens), White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), Roseate Spoonbill (Ajaia ajaja), Tricolored Heron (Egreffa tricolor ruficolis), and Little Blue Heron (Egreffa caerulea). No impacts to these populations resulting from any launch operations were observed. Gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) also occur around the launch complexes. Most of those observed appeared to be in good condition; however, upper respiratory tract disease is known to occur in the population. Cape Canaveral Air Station, including areas near active launch colexes, remains important habitat for a variety of native plants and animals including threatened and endangered species. Direct negative effects of current launch systems appear limited. Additional monitoring of these populations and habitats is required to determine if subtle, long-term changes are occurring, to determine if new launch systems and facilities cause other effects, and to determine the effects of habitat restoration and management.

Oddy, Donna M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Radiation, Water and Energy Closure in Key Deep Tropical Regions Over the Last 3 Decades

The closure of global energy and water budgets at various time scales depends heavily upon the on the processes of water and energy exchange in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance in key tropical regions is observed of water budget terms between observations and atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. For instance, periods of imbalance in the water budget may be at least partly attributed to precipitation estimates due to the transition between cloud and precipitation systems in which ice cloud affects microwave radar estimates (Lietmann-Niimi et al. 2024, submitted). A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process is characterized by wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures as well. This is just one example how these processes also affect the radiative fluxes and thus the energy budget at the TOA. In this presentation, we assess the net radiative budget and components in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES EBAF/SYN1deg Ed4.2, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the temporal variability of energy balance terms across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present in six key oceanic regions. These six key tropical oceanic regions are West Indian Ocean, the south Indian Ocean east, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. In these regions we assess the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear to assess the uncertainties of energy closure in these regions. These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. These differences also affect closure terms and inferences on systematic uncertainties within the observational estimates. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work

Radiation budget↗
NASA NTRS2008

How Does Mediterranean Basin's Atmosphere Become Weak Moisture Source During Negative Phase of NAO: Use of AIRS, AMSR, TOVS, & TRMM Satellite Datasets Over Last Two NAO Cycles to Examine Governing Controls on E-P

The Mediterranean Sea is a noted 'concentration" basin in that it almost continuously exhibits positive evaporation minus precipitation (E - P ) properties -- throughout the four seasons and from one year to the next. Nonetheless, according to the ECMWF Era-40 48-year (1958-2005) climate reanalysis dataset, for various phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the pressure gradient between Portugal and Iceland becomes either very relaxed (large negative NAO-Index) or in transition (small positive or negative NAO-Index), the atmospheric moisture source properties of the basin become weak, at times even reversed for several months (i.e., negative E - P). This behavior poses numerous questions concerning how and why these events occur. Moreover, it begs the question of what it would take for the basin to reach its tipping point in which P would exceed E throughout the rainy season (some six months) on an annually persistent basis -- and the sea would possibly transform to a recurring "dilution" basin. This talk investigates these questions by: (1) establishing over a period from 1979 to present, based on detailed analyses of satellite retrieval products from a combination of NASA-AQUA, NOAA-LEO, NASA/JAXA Scatterometer, and NASA-TRMM platforms, plus additional specialized satellite data products and ancillary meteorological datasets, the actual observation-based behavior of E - P, (2) diagnosing the salient physical and meteorological mechanisms that lead to the weaker E - P events during the analysis period, partly based on analyzing surface and upper air data at discrete stations in the western and eastern Mediterranean -- while at the same time evaluating the quality of the ERA-40 data over this same time period, (3) conducting GCM and high-resolution regional modeling experiments to determine if perturbed but realistic meteorological background conditions could maintain Mediterranean as a "dilution" basin through the October to March rainy season on annually recurring basis, and (4) investigating how such conditions might modify important internal and external climatic processes known to be closely related to the dynamical, thermal, and hydrological properties of the basin (e.g., drought frequency over Iberian peninsula, rainfall accumulation within Sahel, alteration of Levantine branch of east-west aligned open thermohaline cell, and modification of warm-salty intermediate flow through Gibraltar straight into North Atlantic).

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Geoid anomalies over two South Atlantic fracture zones

Seasat altimetry profiles across the Falkland-Agulhas and Ascension fracture zones were examined for evidence of step-like geoid offsets predicted from thermal modeling of the lithosphere. Neither the plate nor the half-space model of lithospheric thermal evolution succeeds in predicting the variations in step height with age across the fracture zone branches considered. For ages less than about 30 Ma, the step offsets decrease in a manner suggesting a plate with a thickness of 50-75 km. At greater ages, the offsets show complex behavior that may be due to bathymetric features adjacent to the fracture zones. Similar geoid patterns on opposite branches of the Falkland-Agulhas fracture zone are indicative of processes that act symmetrically on both sides of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This is consistent both with small-scale convection occurring beneath the lithosphere and with bathymetric features originally produced along the ridge crest and now located symmetrically on opposite sides of the ridge. The west flank of the Ascension fracture zone displays a regrowth in step height at about 40 Ma consistent with small-scale convection and in agreement with other studies of Pacific and South Atlantic fracture zones.

Freedman, Adam P.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Studies of African wave disturbances with the GISS GCM

Simulations made with the general circulation model of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS GCM) run at 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude horizontal resolution are analyzed to determine the model's representation of African wave disturbances. Waves detected in the model's lower troposphere over northern Africa during the summer monsoon season exhibit realistic wavelengths of about 2200 km. However, power spectra of the meridional wind show that the waves propagate westward too slowly, with periods of 5-10 days, about twice the observed values. This sluggishness is most pronounced during August, consistent with simulated 600-mb zonal winds that are only about half the observed speeds of the midtropospheric jet. The modeled wave amplitudes are strongest over West Africa during the first half of the summer but decrease dramatically by September, contrary to observational evidence. Maximum amplitudes occur at realistic latitudes, 12 deg - 20 deg N, but not as observed near the Atlantic coast. Spectral analyses suggest some wave modulation of precipitation in the 5-8 day band, and compositing shows that precipitation is slightly enhanced east of the wave trough, coincident with southerly winds. Extrema of low-level convergence west of the wave troughs, coinciding with northerly winds, were not preferred areas for simulated precipitation, probably because of the drying effect of this advection, as waves were generally north of the humid zone. The documentation of African wave disturbances in the GISS GCM is a first step toward considering wave influences in future GCM studies of Sahel drought.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Surface Energy Budget and Precipitation Efficiency for Convective Systems During TOGA, COARE, GATE, SCSMEX and ARM: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

A two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model is used to simulate convective systems that developed in various geographic locations. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum derived from field campaigns are used as the main forcing. By examining the surface energy budgets, the model results show that the two largest terms are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening) for tropical oceanic cases. These two terms arc opposite in sign, however. The contributions by net radiation and latent heat flux to the net condensation vary in these tropical cases, however. For cloud systems that developed over the South China Sea and eastern Atlantic, net radiation (cooling) accounts for about 20% or more of the net condensation. However, short-wave heating and long-wave cooling are in balance with each other for cloud systems over the West Pacific region such that the net radiation is very small. This is due to the thick anvil clouds simulated in the cloud systems over the Pacific region. Large-scale cooling exceeds large-scale moistening in the Pacific and Atlantic cases. For cloud systems over the South China Sea, however, there is more large-scale moistening than cooling even though the cloud systems developed in a very moist environment. though For three cloud systems that developed over a mid-latitude continent, the net radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes play a much more important role. This means the accurate measurement of surface fluxes and radiation is crucial for simulating these mid-latitude cases.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Multiyear La Niña Events and Multiseason Drought in the Horn of Africa

One of the primary sources of predictability for seasonal hydroclimate forecasts are sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Multiyear La Niña events in particular may be both predictable at long lead times and favor drought in the bimodal rainfall regions of East Africa. However, SST patterns in the tropical Pacific and adjacent ocean basins often differ substantially between first- and second-year La Niñas, which can change how these events affect regional climate. Here, we demonstrate that multiyear La Niña events favor drought in the Horn of Africa in three consecutive seasons [October–December (OND), March–May (MAM), OND]. But they do not tend to increase the probability of a fourth season of drought owing to the sea surface temperatures and associated atmospheric teleconnections in the MAM long rains season following second-year La Niña events. First-year La Niñas tend to have both greater subsidence over the Horn of Africa, associated with warmer waters in the west Pacific that enhance the Walker circulation, and greater cross-continental moisture transport, associated with a warm tropical Atlantic, as compared to second-year La Niñas. Both the increased subsidence and enhanced cross-continental moisture transport favors drought in the Horn of Africa. Our results provide a physical understanding of the sources and limitations of predictability for using multiyear La Niña forecasts to predict drought in the Horn of Africa.

Climate variability↗