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NASA NTRS1988

On the prediction of equilibrium states in homogeneous turbulence

A comparison of several commonly used turbulence models (including the Kappa-epsilon and two second-order closures) is made for the test problem of homogeneous turbulent shear flow in a rotating frame. The time evolution of the turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation rate is calculated for a variety of models and comparisons are made with previously published experiments and numerical simulations. Particular emphasis is placed on examining the ability of each model to accurately predict equilibrium states for a range of the parameter Omega/S (the ratio of the rotation rate to the shear rate). It is found that none of the commonly used second-order closure models yield substantially improved predictions for the time evolution of the turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation rate over the somewhat defective results obtained from the simpler Kappa-epsilon model for the turbulent flow regime. There is also a problem with the equilibrium states predicted by the various models. For example, the Kappa-epsilon model erroneously yields equilibrium states that are independent of Omega/S while the Launder, Reece, and Rodi model predicts a flow relaminarization when Omega/S is greater than 0.39 - a result which is contrary to numerical simulations and linear spectral analysis which indicate flow instability for at least the range 0 less than or = Omega/S less than or = 0.5. The physical implications of the results obtained from the various turbulence models considered here are discussed in detail along with proposals to remedy the deficiencies based on a dynamical systems approach.

Speziale, C. G.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100 percent of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (tonnes per hectare) (15-18 percent). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7 percent) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4 percent).

DVI↗

NASA NTRS1985

Development and testing of a mouse simulated space flight model

The development and testing of a mouse model for simulating some aspects of weightlessness that occur during space flight, and the carrying out of immunological flight experiments on animals was discussed. The mouse model is an antiorthostatic, hypokinetic, hypodynamic suspension model similar to the one used with rats. It is shown that this murine model yield similar results to the rat model of antiorthostatic suspension for simulating some aspects of weightlessness. It is also shown that mice suspended in this model have decreased interferon-alpha/beta production as compared to control, nonsuspended mice or to orthostatically suspended mice. It is suggested that the conditions occuring during space flight could possibly affect interferon production. The regulatory role of interferon in nonviral diseases is demonstrated including several bacterial and protozoan infections indicating the great significance of interferon in resistance to many types of infectious diseases.

Sonnenfeld, G.↗

NASA NTRS2015

The January 2015 Repressurization of ISS ATCS Loop B - Analysis Limitations and Concerns

In January 2013 a false ammonia leak alarm resulted in the shutdown and partial depressurization of one of the two International Space Station (ISS) External Active Thermal Control System (EATCS) loops. The depressurization resulted in a vapor bubble of 18 liters in warm parts of the stagnant loop. To repressurize the loop and regain system operation, liquid would have to be moved from the Ammonia Tank Assembly (ATA) into the loop. This resulted in the possibility of moving cold (as low as ‐30 C) ammonia into the water‐filled Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS) interface heat exchangers. Before moving forward, the freezing potential of the repressurization was evaluated through analysis - using both a Thermal Desktop SINDA/FLUINT model and hand calculations. The models yielded very different results, but both models indicated that heat exchanger freezing was not an issue. Therefore, the repressurization proceeded. The presentation describes the physical situation of the EATCS prior to repressurization and discusses the potential limits and pitfalls of the repressurization. The pre‐repressurization analytical models and their results are discussed. The successful repressurization is describled and the results of a post‐event model assessment is detailed.

Ungar, Eugene↗

NASA NTRS2019

Method for Tracking and Communicating Aggregate Risk Through the Use of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Tools

Large, complex projects can identify a significant number and variety of risks, throughout the project life cycle. These risks are analyzed, mitigated, closed or accepted as independent uncertainties. Once closed or accepted, it is easy for projects to lose awareness of their impact. In reality, each of these risks contributes some amount to the overall risk posture of the project. The ability to track and effectively communicate this aggregate risk has represented a challenge to project management. There have been previous attempts to create a schema to communicate the aggregate effect of risks, without notable success. Most of these attempts have centered on some additive metric derived from the scoring of likelihood and consequence values. This, in and of itself, is a logical approach, but all too often the scores were then aggregated to a level where all context was lost. One weakness has been a lack of attempt to create linkages or logical groups of the risks upon which useful aggregation could then occur. The overall move to model-based (systems) engineering (MBSE) has opened up a vast frontier of opportunities to better integrate all project data. MBSE provides an underlying layer that links data items to each other. Objectives link to requirements, which then link to functions, functions to physical architecture items, and so on, as far down as projects want to model. While it started with a focus on modeling requirements based on things like use cases, efforts are now underway to integrate safety and mission assurance (S&MA) information and analyses, such as risks. This effort, called Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA), is yielding models that are more useful and are a more accurate representations of the systems. MBSE models, with this ability to link related items, provide a new means of tracking and communicating aggregate risks. In the proposed method, risks are added into the models as distinct items, having attributes that communicate a scoring derived from the likelihood and consequence values as charted on the standard NASA 5x5 risk matrix. Like earlier efforts, each box in the 5x5 has an associated scoring, which may include both a current score and potential post-mitigation/control score. The risk items are then linked to elements of the model, such as system objectives/goals, requirements, functions, or physical architecture items, with "Risk to" relationships. These risks will then be communicated by use of reports generated from the model, detailing all risks and/or hazards linked to model elements. These reports can include aggregate impacts, including a current scoring and potential future state scoring based on the planned mitigations and/or controls. These reports will show all risks, open, accepted, and closed, linked to project objectives or requirements. When run as part of an upcoming risk acceptance discussion, these reports will serve to remind the team of all previous risks that relate to the effected portion of the system. When included as part of periodic program or project reviews, risk reviews, and safety reviews, this method can improve the overall understanding of the system's true risk posture. This proposed method takes full advantage of the advances that modern modeling techniques provide, with a minimal investment of additional time. Utilizing the model environment also enables a near constant access to current state of aggregate risks.

model based mission assurance↗

NASA NTRS1985

Whirl and whip: Rotor/bearing stability problems

A mathematical model of a symmetric rotor supported by one rigid and one fluid lubricated bearing is proposed. The rotor model is represented by generalized (modal) parameters of its first bending mode. The rotational character of the bearing fluid force is taken into account. The model yields synchronous vibrations due to rotor unbalance as a particular solution of the equations of motion, rotor/bearing system natural frequencies and corresponding self-excited vibrations known as oil whirl and oil whip. The stability analysis yields rotative speed threshold of stability. The model also gives the evaluation of stability of the rotor synchronous vibrations. In the first balance resonance speed region two more thresholds of stability are yielded. The width of this stability region is directly related to the amount of rotor unbalance. The results of the analysis based on this model stand with very good agreement with field observations of rotor dynamic behavior and the experimental results.

Muszynska, A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2021

A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×10^6 sq.km, compared to 6.46×10^6 sq.km for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×10^6 sq.km for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; and LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally, we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations and simulations for future climate with moderate (1 %/yr) CO2 increase show a relationship between LIG sea ice and sea ice simulated under CO2 increase around the years of doubling CO2. The LIG may therefore yield insight into likely 21st century Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.

Arctic sea ice↗

NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100% of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (15–18%). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7%) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4%).

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of the effect of initial conditions on the initial development of a turbulent jet

The effect of the initial condition at the jet exit on the downstream evolution, particularly within the potential core length, were numerically investigated as well as with available experimental data. In order to select the most dependable computational model for the present numerical experiment, a comparative study has been performed with different turbulence models at k-epsilon level, and it was found that the k-epsilon-gammma model yields superior prediction accuracy over other conventional models. The calculated results show that the potential core length and the spreading rate the initial mixing layer are dependent on the initial length scale as well as the turbulent kinetic energy at the jet exit. Such effect of the initial length scale increases with higher initial turbulence level. An empirical parameter has been devised to collapse the calculated data of the potential core length and the spreading rate with various initial conditions onto a single curve.

Kim, Soong KI↗

NASA NTRS1994

Large-angle cosmic microwave background anisotropies in an open universe

If the universe is open, scales larger than the curvature scale may be probed by observation of large-angle fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We consider primordial adiabatic perturbations and discuss power spectra that are power laws in volume, wavelength, and eigenvalue of the Laplace operator. Such spectra may have arisen if, for example, the universe underwent a period of `frustated' inflation. The resulting large-angle anisotropies of the CMB are computed. The amplitude generally increases as Omega is decreased but decreases as h is increased. Interestingly enough, for all three Ansaetze, anisotropies on angular scales larger than the curvature scale are suppressed relative to the anisotropies on scales smaller than the curvature scale, but cosmic variance makes discrimination between various models difficult. Models with 0.2 approximately less than Omega h approximately less than 0.3 appear compatible with CMB fluctuations detected by Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite (COBE) and the Tenerife experiment and with the amplitude and spectrum of fluctuations of galaxy counts in the APM, CfA, and 1.2 Jy IRAS surveys. COBE normalization for these models yields sigma(sub 8) approximately = 0.5 - 0.7. Models with smaller values of Omega h when normalized to COBE require bias factors in excess of 2 to be compatible with the observed galaxy counts on the 8/h Mpc scale. Requiring that the age of the universe exceed 10 Gyr implies that Omega approximately greater than 0.25, while requiring that from the last-scattering term in the Sachs-Wolfe formula, large-angle anisotropies come primarily from the decay of potential fluctuations at z approximately less than 1/Omega. Thus, if the universe is open, COBE has been detecting temperature fluctuations produced at moderate redshift rather than at z approximately 1300.

Kamionkowski, Marc↗

NASA NTRS1980

Research in the application of spectral data to crop identification and assessment, volume 2

The development of spectrometry crop development stage models is discussed with emphasis on models for corn and soybeans. One photothermal and four thermal meteorological models are evaluated. Spectral data were investigated as a source of information for crop yield models. Intercepted solar radiation and soil productivity are identified as factors related to yield which can be estimated from spectral data. Several techniques for machine classification of remotely sensed data for crop inventory were evaluated. Early season estimation, training procedures, the relationship of scene characteristics to classification performance, and full frame classification methods were studied. The optimal level for combining area and yield estimates of corn and soybeans is assessed utilizing current technology: digital analysis of LANDSAT MSS data on sample segments to provide area estimates and regression models to provide yield estimates.

Daughtry, C. S. T.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The use of large-area spectral data in wheat yield estimation

Large-area relations between satellite spectral data and end-of-season crop yield were investigated. Green Index Number (GIN) values from Landsat MSS data of sample segments throughout the U.S. Great Plains winter wheat belt in 1978 were correlated to county USDA-SRS reported yields. A linear relation between GIN and yield appeared to exist up to GIN values of 40 or 50, covering cases of severe to moderate stress. In a test on 1978 Texas winter wheat at the county level, GIN values for sample segments in the counties were used in conjunction with an agronomic-meteorological yield model. The combined fit explained significantly more of the observed yield variation at the county level than the agromet model alone.

Barnett, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

NASGRO 3.0: A Software for Analyzing Aging Aircraft

Structural integrity analysis of aging aircraft is a critical necessity in view of the increasing numbers of such aircraft in general aviation, the airlines and the military. Efforts are in progress by NASA, the FAA and the DoD to focus attention on aging aircraft safety. The present paper describes the NASGRO software which is well-suited for effectively analyzing the behavior of defects that may be found in aging aircraft. The newly revised Version 3.0 has many features specifically implemented to suit the needs of the aircraft community. The fatigue crack growth computer program NASA/FLAGRO 2.0 was originally developed to analyze space hardware such as the Space Shuttle, the International Space Station and the associated payloads. Due to popular demand, the software was enhanced to suit the needs of the aircraft industry. Major improvements in Version 3.0 are the incorporation of the ability to read aircraft spectra of unlimited size, generation of common aircraft fatigue load blocks, and the incorporation of crack-growth models which include load-interaction effects such as retardation due to overloads and acceleration due to underloads. Five new crack-growth models, viz., generalized Willenborg, modified generalized Willenborg, constant closure model, Walker-Chang model and the deKoning-Newman strip-yield model, have been implemented. To facilitate easier input of geometry, material properties and load spectra, a Windows-style graphical user interface has been developed. Features to quickly change the input and rerun the problem as well as examine the output are incorporated. NASGRO has been organized into three modules, the crack-growth module being the primary one. The other two modules are the boundary element module and the material properties module. The boundary-element module provides the ability to model and analyze complex two-dimensional problems to obtain stresses and stress-intensity factors. The material properties module allows users to store and curve-fit fatigue-crack growth data. On-line help and documentation are provided for each of the modules. In addition to the popular PC windows version, a unix-based X-windows version of NASGRO is also available. A portable C++ class library called WxWindows was used to facilitate cross-platform availability of the software.

Mettu, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

An Improved Model for the Turbulent PBL

Second order turbulence models of the Mellor and Yamada type have been widely used to simulate the PBL. It is however known that these models have several deficiencies. For example, they all predict a critical Richardson number which is about four times smaller than the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) data, they are unable to match the surface data, and they predict a boundary layer height lower than expected. In the present model, we show that these difficulties are all overcome by a single new physical input: the use of the most complete expression for both the pressure-velocity and the pressure-temperature correlations presently available. Each of the new terms represents a physical process that, was not accounted for by previous models. The new model is presented in three different levels according to Mellor and Yamada's terminology, with new, ready-to-use expressions for the turbulent, moments. We show that the new model reproduces several experimental and LES data better than previous models. As far as the PBL is concerned, we show that the model reproduces both the Kansas data as analyzed by Businger et al. in the context of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory for smaller Richardson numbers, as well as the LES and laboratory data up to Richardson numbers of order unity. We also show that the model yields a higher PBL height than the previous models.

Cheng, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Large-scale structure from cosmic-string loops in a baryon-dominated universe

The results are presented of a numerical simulation of the formation of large-scale structure in a universe with Omega(0) = 0.2 and h = 0.5 dominated by baryons in which cosmic strings provide the initial density perturbations. The numerical model yields a power spectrum. Nonlinear evolution confirms that the model can account for 700 km/s bulk flows and a strong cluster-cluster correlation, but does rather poorly on smaller scales. There is no visual 'filamentary' structure, and the two-point correlation has too steep a logarithmic slope. The value of G mu = 4 x 10 to the -6th is significantly lower than previous estimates for the value of G mu in baryon-dominated cosmic string models.

Melott, Adrian L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Calculation of reattaching shear layers in divergent channel with a multiple-time-scale turbulence model

Numerical calculations of turbulent reattaching shear layers in a divergent channel are presented. The turbulence is described by a multiple-time-scale turbulence model. The turbulent flow equations are solved by a control-volume based finite difference method. The computational results are compared with those obtained using k-epsilon turbulence models and algebraic Reynolds stress turbulence models. It is shown that the multiple-time-scale turbulence model yields significantly improved computational results than the other turbulence models in the region where the turbulence is in a strongly inequilibrium state.

Kim, S.-W.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Calculation of reattaching shear layers in divergent channel with a multiple-time-scale turbulence model

Kim, S.-W.↗