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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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An attention-based neural ordinary differential equation framework for modeling inelastic processes

To preserve strictly conservative behavior as well as model the variety of dissipative behavior displayed by solid materials, we propose a significant enhancement to the internal state variable-neural ordinary differential equation (ISV-NODE) framework. In this data-driven, physics-constrained modeling framework internal states are inferred rather than prescribed. The ISV-NODE consists of: (a) a stress model dependent on observable deformation and inferred internal state, and (b) a model of the evolution of the internal states. The enhancements to ISV-NODE proposed in this work are multifold: (a) a partially input convex neural network stress potential provides polyconvexity in terms of observed strain while leaving the inferred state unconstrained, and (b) an internal state flow model uses common latent features to inform novel attention-based gating and drives the flow of internal state only in dissipative regimes. We demonstrated that this architecture can accurately model dissipative and conservative behavior across an isotropic, isothermal elastic-viscoelastic-elastoplastic spectrum with three exemplars, while maintaining fundamental principles by design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Smart Droplets Stabilized by Designer Surfactants: From Biomimicry to Active Motion to Materials Healing

The science and technologies of emulsion droplets have been a long‐term focus of extensive research endeavors for their practical utility across a breadth of industries, including pharmaceutical products, oil recovery processes, and the food sciences. However, with advances in materials chemistry and characterization tools, new emerging areas are arising with a focus on “smart droplets”. The versatility of emulsion droplets across is based on their ability to partition and create isolated systems with properties defined by the liquid–liquid interface, while preparative routes allow manipulation of droplet size, stability, and encapsulated contents. As described in this article, significant efforts are being devoted to creating new types of droplets by “activating” this interface through the incorporation of reactive structures that trigger droplet response to applied or environmental stimuli (e.g., pH, temperature, salt, or external fields). Moreover, parallels between droplets and live cells inspire efforts to conceive systems that resemble biological motifs or that can produce cellular behaviors that imitate biology (e.g., swarming, communication, or motion). Here, the authors highlight recent advances in smart droplets, with emphasis on organic, polymer, and/or particle surfactants that give rise to inter‐droplet communication (via aggregation, fusion, division, or mass transfer), droplet vehicles for controlled delivery, autonomous droplet motion, and tunable emulsion inversion. Especially emphasized is the macromolecular design to produce reactive and functional surfactants, which are crucial to responsive droplet behavior and their underlying mechanisms. More generally, the exquisite interplay between materials science and biology inspires the review of this research area that provides unique opportunities for insight and inspiration into the capabilities of new droplet designs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Development of global/chemistry model for jet-fuel thermal stability based on observations from static and flowing experiments

Two global-chemistry models for oxidative deposition of jet fuels are evaluated by integrating them into a Computational Fluid Dynamics with Chemistry (CFDC) code. A previously developed two-step global-chemistry model was found to be insufficient to describe the thermal-oxidation and -deposition rates associated with a Jet-A fuel. A new global-chemistry model has been developed systematically based on observations from flowing and static experiments. The global-autoxidation reaction is modified such that the reaction rate becomes zeroth-order with respect to the dissolved oxygen concentration. The generation of deposit-forming precursor is coupled with the autoxidation reaction by introducing a radical species ROO. A formulation for the sticking probability has also been developed. Deposition profiles are well represented by this new model under a variety of temperature and flow conditions. The model correctly predicts the changes in magnitude and spatial location of the deposition peak due to changes in flow. The CFDC model, which is designed for flowing systems, has been extended to static experiments. The model incorporates a non-depleting species F(sub s) representing all non-oxygen compounds responsible for deposition. Static experiments were found to provide a useful and inexpensive method for estimating the concentration of F(sub s) in the fuel.

V. R. Katta

From Rules to Reasoning: A Survey of Large Language Model-Based Approaches to Scientific Hypothesis and Idea Generation

Scientific hypothesis generation represents a fundamental challenge in contemporary research due to exponentially expanding literature volumes and increasing disciplinary specialization. Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools for automated scientific discovery, moving beyond traditional rule-based and literature-mining approaches. Four paradigmatic approaches define current LLM-driven hypothesis generation: direct prompting and fine-tuning methods, knowledge-enhanced frameworks integrating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), multi-agent collaborative systems simulating research teams, and reasoning-focused approaches implementing cognitive architectures. Domain-specific applications demonstrate statistical equivalence to human expert performance in social psychology, experimental validation in biomedical research, and near-expert quality in astronomy. Evaluation methodologies encompass human expert assessment, LLM-as-judge frameworks, and comprehensive benchmarking systems. Technical challenges include hallucination management, knowledge integration limitations, and balancing novelty with feasibility. Future directions emphasize hybrid neural-symbolic architectures and sophisticated human-AI collaboration models for responsible scientific discovery acceleration.

AI-driven discovery

Precise Modeling of a Complex Solenoidal Magnetic Field Using a Combination of Analytic Functions and a PINN

We demonstrate an iterative approach to modeling a sparsely measured magnetic field in a large-bore solenoid. This approach uses a hybrid of traditional and machine learning techniques. The traditional technique is a linear least-squares fit using a series solution to Laplace's equation, while the machine learning technique involves the training of a physics-informed neural network (PINN) on the least-squares fit residuals. We use a newly defined activation function "DELTAsnake," a modification to the snake activation function proposed by Ziyin et al. that allows for stronger curvature and non-monotonicity. The combined model approximately obeys Maxwell's equations to a level sufficient for producing high quality physics simulations and analysis. Our approach is applied to a highly realistic calculation of the expected magnetic field in the Mu2e experiment's Detector Solenoid which includes a simple model for the expected statistical measurement uncertainties. Using ten toy measurement simulations, we demonstrate the capabilities of our model in comparison to the least-squares method alone; the least-squares method alone results in a reduced chi-squared statistic of ${2.15 \pm 0.01}$, while our approach improves the reduced chi-square to ${1.034 \pm 0.005}$. Furthermore, for an average toy simulation, we show that the range of the RMS of the three field component residuals reduces from ${0.07-0.37}$ Gauss to ${0.05-0.07}$ Gauss. We find that this novel method is robust against a realistic systematic uncertainty deriving from Hall probe calibration bias and can be used to significantly reduce the number of measurements required to achieve an accurate model.

Kampa, Cole [Caltech] (ORCID:0000000192972920)

Sparse non-Markovian Noise Modeling of Transmon-Based Multi-Qubit Operations

The influence of noise on quantum dynamics is one of the main factors preventing current quantum processors from performing accurate quantum computations. Sufficient noise characterization and modeling can provide key insights into the effect of noise on quantum algorithms and inform the design of targeted error protection protocols. However, constructing effective noise models that are sparse in model parameters, yet predictive can be challenging. In this work, we present an approach for effective noise modeling of multi-qubit operations on transmon-based devices. Through a comprehensive characterization of seven devices offered by the IBM Quantum Platform, we show that the model can capture and predict a wide range of single- and two-qubit behaviors, including non-Markovian effects resulting from spatiotemporally correlated noise sources. The model’s predictive power is further highlighted through multi-qubit dynamical decoupling demonstrations and an implementation of the variational quantum eigensolver. As a training proxy for the hardware, we show that the model can predict expectation values within a relative error of 0.5%; this is a sevenfold improvement over default hardware noise models. Through these demonstrations, we highlight key error sources in superconducting qubits and illustrate the utility of reduced noise models for predicting hardware dynamics.

open quantum systems & decoherence

Monitoring Depolymerization in Mesopores Using Dynamic Properties of Polymeric Melt Accessed via Dielectric Spectroscopy

Traditional design principles for heterogeneous catalysis guide the use of catalytic particles with mesosized (∼2–50 nm) pores to increase the number of surface-active sites by way of an increased surface area. However, the entry of long-chain polymers into such pores may be significantly limited by the size and entanglement of polymers in the melt state, thereby decreasing the number of accessible sites. Assessment of catalyst performance from traditional reactor-based studies averages over intrapore reaction events as well as reactions on the surface of a particle, resulting in an inability to distinguish between differences in site accessibility and activity. Techniques that assess the intrapore performance can inform the design of future heterogeneous catalysts for polymer upcycling. In this work, we demonstrate the use of broadband dielectric spectroscopy to monitor depolymerization of a polymer melt within mesopores via changes in the segmental relaxation time scale of amorphous polymer chains. In particular, we highlight the use of an anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) membrane as a readily available model for catalyst pores with a well-characterized pore morphology. The decrease in the segmental relaxation (α-relaxation) time of the melt with increasing chain scission emerges as a measure of the extent of polymer deconstruction inside mesopores. To demonstrate the utility of this technique, we demonstrate the decomposition of two commercial poly(propylene carbonate) polymers with different decomposition rates within mesopores. As the polymers depolymerize, their segmental relaxation time decreases as the molecular weight decreases (as predicted by the Fox–Flory equation). The BDS-measured change in segmental relaxation time mirrors the expected trend based on change in molecular weight measured by size exclusion chromatography.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

A comparison of compact, presumably young with extended, evolved radio active galactic nuclei

Context.The triggering and evolution of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and the interaction of the AGN with its host galaxy is an important topic in extragalactic astrophysics. Radio sources with peaked spectra (peaked spectrum sources, PSS) and compact symmetric objects (CSO) are powerful, compact, and presumably young AGNs and therefore particularly suitable to study aspects of the AGN-host connection. Aims.We use a statistical approach to investigate properties of a PSS-CSO sample that are related to host galaxies and could potentially shed light on the link between host galaxies and AGNs. The main goal is to compare the PSS-CSO sample with a matching comparison sample of extended sources (ECS) to see if the two have significant differences. Methods.We analysed composite spectra, diagnostic line diagrams, multi-band spectral energy distributions (MBSEDs), star formation (SF) indicators, morphologies, and cluster environments for a sample of 121 PSSs and CSOs for which spectra are available from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The statistical results were compared with those of the ECS sample, where we generally considered the two subsamples of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) and radio galaxies separately. The analysis is based on a large set of archival data in the spectral range from the ultraviolet to mid-infrared. Results.We find significant differences between the PSS-CSO and the ECS sample. In particular, we find that the ECS sample has a higher proportion of passive galaxies with a lower star formation activity. This applies to both sub-samples (QSOs or radio galaxies) as well as to the entire sample. The star formation rates of the PSS-CSO host galaxies with available data are typically in the range ∼0 to 5 ℳ ⊙ yr −1 , and the stellar masses are in the range 3 × 10 11 to 10 12 ℳ ⊙ . Secondly, in agreement with previous results, we find a remarkably high proportion of PSS-CSO host galaxies with merger signatures. The merger fraction of the PSS-CSO sample is 0.61 ± 0.07, which is significantly higher than that of the comparison sample (0.15 ± 0.06). We suggest that this difference can be explained by assuming that the majority of the PSSs and CSOs cannot evolve to extended radio sources and are therefore not represented in our comparison sample.

Astronomy & Astrophysics

Optimal experimental design using eigenvalue-based criteria with Pyomo.DoE

New developments in automated optimal experimental design within the PSE+ software ecosystem. Advancements in user experience (to reduce the time taken to perform optimal experiment design) and computational capabilities (allowing more diverse experimental design) are shown with an example relevant to critical minerals and materials. Also, a small tutorial on science-based optimal experimental design and novel contributions therein are presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan

A High Temperature Cyclic Oxidation Data Base for Selected Materials Tested at NASA Glenn Research Center

The cyclic oxidation test results for some 1000 high temperature commercial and experimental alloys have been collected in an EXCEL database. This database represents over thirty years of research at NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio. The data is in the form of a series of runs of specific weight change versus time values for a set of samples tested at a given temperature, cycle time, and exposure time. Included on each run is a set of embedded plots of the critical data. The nature of the data is discussed along with analysis of the cyclic oxidation process. In addition examples are given as to how a set of results can be analyzed. The data is assembled on a read-only compact disk which is available on request from Materials Durability Branch, NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio.

Scale Spalling Models

General Purpose Data-Driven Monitoring for Space Operations

As modern space propulsion and exploration systems improve in capability and efficiency, their designs are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex. Determining the health state of these systems, using traditional parameter limit checking, model-based, or rule-based methods, is becoming more difficult as the number of sensors and component interactions grow. Data-driven monitoring techniques have been developed to address these issues by analyzing system operations data to automatically characterize normal system behavior. System health can be monitored by comparing real-time operating data with these nominal characterizations, providing detection of anomalous data signatures indicative of system faults or failures. Data-driven techniques have a number of advantages over other methods for monitoring complex space vehicles. Unlike model-based systems, the developer does not need to understand or encode the internal operation of the system. The knowledge required to monitor the system is automatically derived from archived data from system operation. Unlike rule-based systems, data-driven systems do not require system analysts to define nominal relationships among sensors. Analysts can and often do determine these relationships for a system with few sensors; it is more difficult to analytically determine the nominal relationship among a large number of sensors. Data-driven techniques are not limited to low-dimensional spaces and work as effectively with dozens of parameters as they do with a few. Knowledge bases formed by data-driven techniques are also easy to update. As the operating envelope of the monitored system is expanded, data-driven techniques can be quickly retrained to incorporate the new behavior into the knowledge base. The expertise and time-consuming process of updating a model or rule base to maintain consistency with the new operation is not required. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) is a data-driven system health monitoring software tool that has been successfully applied to several aerospace applications. IMS uses a data mining technique called clustering to analyze archived system data and characterize normal interactions between parameters. This characterization, or model, of nominal operation is stored in a knowledge base that can be used for real-time system monitoring or analysis of archived events. System data is compared with the nominal IMS model to produce a measure of how well current system behavior matches the normal behavior defined by the training data. Significant deviations from the nominal system model can provide alerts to system malfunctions or precursors of significant failures. The scope of IMS based data-driven monitoring applications continues to expand with current development activities. Successful IMS deployment in the International Space Station (ISS) flight control room to monitor ISS attitude control systems has led to applications in other ISS flight control disciplines, such as thermal control. It has also generated interest in data-driven monitoring capability for Constellation, NASA's program to replace the Space Shuttle with new launch vehicles and spacecraft capable of returning astronauts to the moon, and then on to Mars. Several projects are currently underway to evaluate and mature the IMS technology and complementary tools for use in the Constellation program. These include an experiment on board the Air Force TacSat-3 satellite, and ground systems monitoring for NASA's Ares I-X and Ares I launch vehicles. The TacSat-3 Vehicle System Management (TVSM) project is a software experiment to integrate fault and anomaly detection algorithms and diagnosis tools with executive and adaptive planning functions contained in the flight software on-board the Air Force Research Laboratory TacSat-3 satellite. The TVSM software package will be uploaded after launch to monitor spacecraft subsystems such as power and guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C). It will analyze data in real-time to demonstrate detection of faults and unusual conditions, diagnose problems, and react to threats to spacecraft health and mission goals. The experiment will demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of integrated system health management (ISHM) technologies with both ground and on-board experiments. Initially, the TVSM software will run open loop, providing system health information and recommendations to ground operators, without automatically performing fault-mitigating corrective actions. After the end of the satellite's mission, closed loop tests combining TVSM monitoring and diagnosis with reactive capabilities by the flight software will be performed. In addition to monitoring for long periods of actual operation, the experiment will include fault injection into TacSat-3 data as well as commanded operations to test and evaluate automatic ISHM monitoring and recovery under controlled conditions.

Satellites

Collective behavior of “flexicles”

In recent years the functionality of synthetic active microparticles has edged even closer to that of their biological counterparts. However, we still lack the understanding needed to recreate at the microscale key features of autonomous behavior exhibited by microorganisms or swarms of macroscopic robots. In this study, we propose a model for a three-dimensional deformable cellular composite particle consisting of self-propelled rod-shaped colloids confined within a flexible vesicle—representing a superstructure we call a “flexicle” that couples particle deformation to the internal dynamics of the internal active components. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we investigate the collective behavior of dense systems composed of many flexicles. We show that individual flexicles exhibit shape changes upon collisions with other flexicles that lead to rearrangements of the internal active rods, which slows flexicle motion. This shape deformability gives rise to a diverse set of motility-induced phase separation phenomena and the spontaneous flow of flexicles reminiscent of the migration of cells in dense tissues. Our findings establish a foundation for designing responsive, cell-like active particles and developing strategies for controlling swarm migration and other autonomous swarm behaviors at cellular and colloidal scales.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Advances in Design Capabilities for Planetary Missions from the NASA Entry Systems Modeling and Instrumentation Portfolio

The Entry Systems Modeling project (ESM) is supported by both the NASA Space Technology and the Science Mission Directorates and focuses on developing simulation tools and validated models for characterizing the performance of entry systems tailored to planetary destinations across the Solar System. ESM is organized into six technical capability areas that together address all relevant factors related to spacecraft entry, as well as some aspects of descent: Thermal Protection System (TPS) Materials; Aerothermodynamics; Entry & Descent Vehicle Dynamics; Guidance, Navigation, and Control; Vehicle Systems Analysis; and Advanced Tools and Numerical Methods. Development within the capability areas is undertaken explicitly with a focus on transition and infusion to science missions, human exploration missions, and commercial space activities. The present talk details developments that specifically impact science missions, including simulation tool capabilities that aid in mission design and model development to understand entry system performance at a given destination. Examples of the successful infusion and transition of such project outcomes to science missions also are provided. Several simulation tool development efforts within ESM have resulted in new design capabilities for missions. One such outcome is improved toolsets for mission trajectory and concept of operations design. Specifically, an initiative to couple a leading tool for entry, ascent/descent, and orbital trajectory optimization (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II or POST2) to those used within the Agency for interplanetary trajectory optimization (Copernicus and Monte) has made substantial progress, with the outcomes to date promising to allow efficient trajectory optimization across mission phases. Additionally, toolchains for the evaluation of vehicle performance during entry and descent have been developed that allow assessment of multi-dimensional aeroheating on detailed vehicle geometries, characterization of deployment and inflation of parachutes, and assessment of vehicle dynamic stability during descent. These capabilities are achieved by coupling diverse sets of physics together – material response, computational fluid dynamics, radiation, and vehicle dynamics – to suitably describe complex entry and descent phenomena. Several model development and validation efforts for specific destinations and entry regimes also are underway within the ESM project. For instance, new experimental capabilities to validate radiation models at low densities/high altitudes recently have been established with project support, specifically the Low-Density Shock Tube (LDST) at the NASA Ames Research Center Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The LDST is being leveraged to develop improved models of shock layer kinetics and radiation in Titan atmospheres, while future studies will be conducted in the LDST and the existing high velocity shock tube to provide validation data for radiation models of Venus, Ice Giants, and Mars atmospheres. Models describing the aerothermal and thermo-structural performance of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials has been another focus, with multiscale modeling activities on-going for the two leading TPS materials applicable to a range of entry conditions and science missions: the Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and woven materials like 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). A continual effort is made to infuse and transition outcomes from ESM simulation tool and model development activities into relevant science missions. Significant progress has been made on this front, with missions such as Dragonfly, DAVINCI, and Mars Missions benefitting from project outcomes. The groundwork also is being laid to provide insights into forward looking missions to Gas/Ice Giants as well as for potential sample returns.

Justin Haskins

A Data-Driven Method for Modeling Creep-Fatigue Stress- Strain Behavior Using Neural ODEs

In this paper, we introduce a data-driven machine learning approach for modeling one-dimensional stress–strain behavior under cyclic loading, utilizing experimental data from the nickel-based Alloy 617. The study employs uniaxial creep–fatigue test data acquired under various loading histories and compares two distinct neural network-based ODE models. The first model, known as the black-box model, comprehensively describes the strain–stress relationship using a Neural ODE equation. To interpret this black-box model, we apply the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems (SINDy) technique, transforming the black-box model into an equation-based model using symbolic regression. The second model, the Neural flow rule model, incorporates Hooke’s Law for the linear elastic component, with the nonlinear part characterized by a Neural ODE. Both models are trained with experimental data to accurately reflect the observed stress–strain behavior. We conduct a detailed comparison with the standard Chaboche model, which includes three back stresses. Our results demonstrate that the neural network-based ODE models precisely capture the experimental creep–fatigue mechanical behavior, exceeding the standard Chaboche model’s accuracy. Furthermore, an interpretable model derived from the black-box neural ODE model through symbolic regression achieves accuracy comparable to the Chaboche model, enhancing its interpretability. The results highlight the potential of neural network-based ODE models to depict complex creep–fatigue behavior, eliminating the necessity for experts to define a specific, material-focused model form.

creep-fatigue

Refractory-based thermal energy storage for industrial process heat: one-dimensional modeling, control, and optimization

The variable and weather-dependent output of wind and solar power plants present a substantial challenge for planning and operating electricity-systems, particularly in the absence of cost-effective and dispatchable energy storage technologies. This study investigates a high-temperature, electrically heated, refractory-based thermal energy storage (RTES) system that stores electrical energy as sensible heat in dense ceramic bricks over the 950–1800 °C range. The stored heat can be discharged as a controlled hot-gas stream for industrial heating, fuel substitution in high-temperature processes, or electricity generation. The main novelty is a comprehensive modelling, control, mapping, and optimization framework that integrates one-dimensional transient gas–solid heat transfer, fan-assisted discharge, bypass-flow regulation, reheating logic, fan-power evaluation, insulation-loss assessment, and genetic-algorithm-based design optimization. The model uses feedback from outlet temperature and delivered power to regulate discharge, while a two-stage genetic algorithm optimizes brick-channel geometry, gas-flow operation, and multilayer insulation thicknesses. Storage capacities below 50 MWh and discharge powers of 5–30 MW are analyzed to evaluate hold time, thermal delivery, fan-power penalty, heat loss, state-of-charge evolution, and indicative capital cost. Results demonstrate that optimized and well-insulated refractory-based thermal energy storage units can provide stable, efficient, and repeatable heat delivery over multiple discharge cycles. The generated performance and cost maps support modular refractory thermal energy storage as a practical option for large-scale integration of wind and solar generation and for high-temperature industrial process heat.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Machine Learning for Predicting Team Functioning in HERA Missions

Team functioning is integral to success in future long term space exploration missions. Proactively detecting declines in team functioning can mitigate conflict and ensure mission success. This project developed a speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) system that unobtrusively predicts degradation in team functioning, including performance and cohesion, in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaigns 4 and 5. The AI system conducted automated analysis of the prosodic (tone of voice) and linguistic (language content) components of speech, modeling interpersonal dynamics at both the turn-taking and day-wide levels. We investigated team functioning via observing structured interactions (i.e., multi-mission space exploration vehicle-extra vehicular activity [MMSEV-EVA], team interaction battery [TIB]) and unstructured interactions before the MMSEV-EVA task. We developed machine learning models to predict team functioning (objective task accuracy, self reported team efficacy and self reported team cohesion) by analyzing OpenSmile acoustic features, linguistic descriptors extracted via the linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC) dictionary, and semantic embeddings. In the TIB, static models using logistic regression and random forests were not able to predict task accuracy, but predicted team efficacy and cohesion during both the decision making and relational tasks to a moderate level (60-70%). Majority voting on the individual turns to predict day long team efficacy further increased accuracies (70-80%). Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) models showed the best performance across all variables (80-91%), including task performance. In the MMSEV-EVA, static models achieved an accuracy of 60% with majority voting, which increased to 80% through the incorporation of mission day as a variable, accounting for the learning effect. A key finding across both tasks was the "team-dependent" nature of these interactions; models achieved much higher accuracy when trained on prior days of the same team's data rather than attempting to generalize across entirely different teams, with even 1-2 days of prior data per team achieving 5-15% improvement over team-independent models. In addition, the incorporation of pre-task data from the same team also improves model performance, e.g., incorporating data from the decision-making task of the TIB, which preceded the relational task, improved the prediction of team efficacy and cohesion during the latter. We compared model performance when trained on machine-generated data compared to data that had been further corrected by human annotators. Overall, models trained on human-corrected data exhibited a modest improvement in performance, particularly when acoustic features were used. We found no significant correlation between word error rate (WER) and model accuracy (r(55) = -0.08, p = 0.51), but model’s accuracy was significantly higher for medium/high quality transcription (0.74 (SD = 0.48)) compared to the low-quality group (0.64 (SD = 0.36)) (t(63)=2.82, p = 0.006). Based on these, several design recommendation emerge, that could inform Standards at NASA. Models predicting team functioning should incorporate at least one to two days of historical interaction data, include brief pre-task discussions, and explicitly model temporal learning effects, especially for longer operational tasks. Minimum quality standards for automated speech-processing pipelines are needed, given the performance gains observed with manually corrected acoustic data. Finally, systems should leverage both acoustic features and language embeddings in complementary ways, with modality choices and fusion strategies tailored to mission context, task demands, and data quality requirements.

Shrivatsa Mishra