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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

Adaptive Protection of Scientific Backbone Networks Using Machine Learning

In this article, we propose a new protection scheme for backbone networks to guarantee high service availability. The presented scheme does not require any reconfiguration immediately after the failure (i.e., it is proactive). At the same time, it does not require any reserved backup network resources either. To achieve these seemingly contradictory goals, we utilize the recent advancements in Machine Learning (ML) to implement a network intelligence that periodically re-allocates the unused capacity as protection bandwidth to meet the service availability requirements of each connection. Our goal is achieved by two components (1) predicting the traffic for the next period on each link, and (2) intelligently selecting the best fit dedicated protection scheme for the next period depending on the estimated unused (spare) bandwidth and the previous service availability violations. Note that re-allocating protection bandwidth affects neither the operational connections nor the current best practice of operators to over-provision network bandwidth to support elephant flows. Finally, we provide a case study on the real traffic from Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), a high-speed, international scientific backbone network. The key benefit of our framework is that adaptively utilizing the over-provisioned bandwidth for spare capacity is sufficient to improve the availability from three-nines to five-nines (in ESnet for the 30 examined connections). The drawback is negligible bandwidth limitations; the user perceives a minor and very temporal bandwidth limitation in less than 0.1% of the time.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Interface Metaphors for Interactive Machine Learning

To promote more interactive and dynamic machine learn- ing, we revisit the notion of user-interface metaphors. User-interface metaphors provide intuitive constructs for supporting user needs through interface design elements. A user-interface metaphor provides a visual or action pattern that leverages a user’s knowledge of another domain. Metaphors suggest both the visual representations that should be used in a display as well as the interactions that should be afforded to the user. We argue that user-interface metaphors can also offer a method of extracting interaction-based user feedback for use in machine learning. Metaphors offer indirect, context-based information that can be used in addition to explicit user inputs, such as user-provided labels. Implicit information from user interactions with metaphors can augment explicit user input for active learning paradigms. Or it might be leveraged in systems where explicit user inputs are more challenging to obtain. Each interaction with the metaphor provides an opportunity to gather data and learn. We argue this approach is especially important in streaming applications, where we desire machine learning systems that can adapt to dynamic, changing data.

Interactive machine learning↗

Geologic CO 2 sequestration monitoring design: A machine learning and uncertainty quantification based approach

Monitoring is a crucial aspect of geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration risk management. Effective monitoring is critical to ensure CO 2 is safely and permanently stored throughout the life-cycle of a geologic CO 2 sequestration project. Effective monitoring involves deciding: (i) where is the optimal location to place the monitoring well(s), and (ii) what type of data (pressure, temperature, CO 2 saturation, etc.) should be measured taking into consideration the uncertainties at geologic sequestration sites. We have developed a filtering-based data assimilation procedure to design effective monitoring approaches. To reduce the computational cost of the filtering-based data assimilation process, a machine-learning algorithm: Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines is used to derive computationally effcient reduced order models from results of full-physics numerical simulations of CO 2 injection in saline aquifer and subsequent multi-phase fluid flow. We use example scenarios of CO 2 leakage through legacy wellbore and demonstrate a monitoring strategy can be selected with the aim of reducing uncertainty in metrics related to CO 2 leakage. We demonstrate the proposed framework with two synthetic examples: a simple validation case and a more complicated case including multiple monitoring wells. The examples demonstrate that the proposed approach can be effective in developing monitoring approaches that take into consideration uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An overview of 3D field optimization for control of transport and edge instabilities on KSTAR

An international team from several laboratories and universities has made key advances over the last few years in the control of plasma transport and edge instabilities with applied 3D fields in the KSTAR tokamak to optimize long pulse operation scenarios. This overview begins with the optimization of both core and edge resonant magnetic perturbations (RMP) to improve fast ion confinement to avoid excessive limiter heat loads due to fast ion losses and successful modeling of the experimental results. Integrated and advanced plasma control techniques with machine learning (ML) and adaptive control were then used to optimize the 3D field spectrum in real-time to control edge localized modes (ELMs) while avoiding core locked modes that could disrupt the plasma. Accelerating the offline model of 3D fields with a surrogate ML model can optimize ELM suppression in the edge while limiting the impact of the applied RMP fields deeper in the plasma core in real-time. In addition, the impact of the 3D fields on the divertor heat load has been modeled and compared with experimental measurements. An analysis of a multi-machine database including KSTAR has been performed to better understand the metrics for the observed RMP thresholds for ELM suppression and the resulting plasma performance. Predictive modeling of the operational space for ELM suppression and density pumpout due to RMP has shown the importance of magnetic islands in the plasma edge and their impact on plasma turbulence. This research has culminated in the development of successful long pulse operational scenarios on KSTAR while attempting to overcome challenges of the new tungsten divertor.

3D fields↗

Resilient design in nuclear energy: Critical lessons from a cross-disciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

This paper presents a multidisciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Along with the latest observations and simulation studies, we synthesize the time-series and event progressions during the accident across multiple disciplines, including in-plant physics and engineering systems, operators’ actions, emergency responses, meteorology, radionuclide release and transport, land contamination, and health impacts. We identify three key factors that exacerbated the consequences of the accident: (1) the failure of Unit 2 containment venting, (2) the insufficient integration of radiation measurements and meteorology data in the evacuation strategy, and (3) the limited risk assessment and emergency preparedness. We conclude with new research and development directions to improve the resilience of nuclear energy systems and communities, including (1) meteorology-informed proactive venting, (2) machine learning-enabled adaptive evacuation zones, and (3) comprehensive risk-informed emergency planning while leveraging the experience from responses to other disasters.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Physical Sciences Vistas, Issue 1 2021 [Newsletter]

Issue 1 highlights of the Los Alamos Physical Sciences Vistas newsletter include: Finding and aiding success through the Lab's employee scholarship fund; Volunteer vignettes: helping others throughout Northern New Mexico; X-ray topography instrument reimagined for use at Oregon State University; Potentially activated metal recycle project triples its goal; Adaptive 3D machine-learning method for 3D coherent diffraction imaging; and, Sigma team aims for excellence in safety, quality, productivity.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Virtual Diagnostic Suite for Electron Beam Prediction and Control at FACET-II

We discuss the implementation of a suite of virtual diagnostics at the FACET-II facility currently under commissioning at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. The diagnostics will be used for the prediction of the longitudinal phase space along the linac, spectral reconstruction of the bunch profile, and non-destructive inference of transverse beam quality (emittance) while using edge radiation at the injector dogleg and bunch compressor locations. These measurements will be folded into adaptive feedbacks and Machine Learning (ML)-based reinforcement learning controls to improve the stability and optimize the performance of the machine for different experimental configurations. In this paper we describe each of these diagnostics with expected measurement results that are based on simulation data and discuss progress towards implementation in regular operations.

Emma, Claudio (ORCID:0000000247191831)↗

Run Time Assurance for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Aircraft

NASA is conducting research to demonstrate and evaluate the application of Run Time Assurance (RTA) as a means to assure safety in Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft with highly automated or autonomous flight capability supervised by a single onboard pilot. The work described in this report demonstrates an application of RTA and examines the implications for design and analysis of aircraft functions and systems; aircraft safety hazards; safety assurance; development assurance; and pilot tasks and performance. This research effort also seeks to assess the efficacy of the combined application of traditional Functional Hazard Analysis (FHA) and the more modern System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) techniques to perform hazard analyses on aircraft with complex automated and autonomous systems and an onboard pilot. During the research effort we developed architectural designs of two alternate eVTOL aircraft, generally following the process characterized in the SAE standards ARP4754 and ARP4761. The design has focused on the control architectures of these aircraft, which are identical except that one incorporates RTA techniques to reduce the criticality of some key software components. Artifacts of this process include a taxonomy of aircraft-level functions, aircraft-level architecture diagrams, aircraft-level functional hazard assessments (AFHA), function allocations onto aircraft systems and subsystems, functional block diagrams for a select set of control-related functions, and system-level functional hazard assessments (SFHA) for those functions. This project has highlighted the notion that DAL D is something of a sweet spot for low-confidence controllers in an RTA-based design. Among the many activities described in DO-178C, the activities related to requirement verifiability, algorithmic accuracy, and test coverage can be the most challenging for the kinds of advanced control techniques that may be desirable in novel UAM designs, such as adaptive control, machine-learning, artificial intelligence, numerical search, and Monte Carlo based algorithms. Moreover, the standard requires that development teams demonstrate that errors leading to unacceptable failure conditions have been removed from the software. The RTA architecture, which cordons off the low-confidence function, makes it much easier to show this for these kinds of algorithms. With regard to the use of STPA and FHA as complementary hazard analysis techniques, our research effort led us to the conclusion that STPA should be used to derive requirements for hardware and software systems and/or components. Also, STPA is a natural complement to other processes in ARP4754A involving design studies and iteration.

Run-time assurance↗

Sim-to-real supervised domain adaptation for radioisotope identification

Machine learning has the potential to improve the speed and reliability of radioisotope identification using gamma spectroscopy. However, meticulously labeling an experimental dataset for training is often prohibitively expensive, while training models purely on synthetic data is risky due to the domain gap between simulated and experimental measurements. In this research, we demonstrate that supervised domain adaptation can substantially improve the performance of radioisotope identification models by transferring knowledge between synthetic and experimental data domains. We consider two domain adaptation scenarios: (1) a simulation-to-simulation adaptation, where we perform multi-label proportion estimation using simulated high-purity germanium detectors, and (2) a simulation-to-experimental adaptation, where we perform multi-class, single-label classification using measured spectra from handheld lanthanum bromide (LaBr) and sodium iodide (NaI) detectors. We begin by pretraining a spectral classifier on synthetic data using a custom transformer-based neural network. After subsequent fine-tuning on just 64 labeled experimental spectra, we achieve a test accuracy of 96% in the sim-to-real scenario with a LaBr detector, far surpassing a synthetic-only baseline model (75%) and a model trained from scratch (80%) on the same 64 spectra. Furthermore, we demonstrate that domain-adapted models learn more human-interpretable features than experiment-only baseline models. Overall, our results highlight the potential for supervised domain adaptation techniques to bridge the sim-to-real gap in radioisotope identification, enabling the development of accurate and explainable classifiers even in real-world scenarios where access to experimental data is limited.

Lalor, Peter W.↗

Framework for an adaptive integrated observation system using a hierarchy of machine learning approaches

Focal Area(s): 1. Data acquisition enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, and hardware-related efforts involving AI. 2. Insight gleaned from complex measurements using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI Science Challenge and Rationale: Atmospheric processes are stochastic, occur at scales from the micrometer to many kilometers, and are constantly changing over time. Characterizing these interactions and associated environmental conditions using traditional measurement techniques is difficult and can take years to build statistics on atmospheric phenomena that occurs episodically. Developing new innovative approaches to modify sampling strategies in real-time would enable the routine collection of targeted measurements focused on a specific set of science questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hardware Acceleration of Adaptive Neural Algorithms.

As tradit ional numerical computing has faced challenges, researchers have turned towards alternative computing approaches to reduce power - per - computation metrics and improve algorithm performance. Here, we describe an approach towards non - conventional computing that strengthens the connection between machine learning and neuroscience concepts. The Hardware Acceleration of Adaptive Neural Algorithms (HAANA) project ha s develop ed neural machine learning algorithms and hardware for applications in image processing and cybersecurity. While machine learning methods are effective at extracting relevant features from many types of data, the effectiveness of these algorithms degrades when subjected to real - world conditions. Our team has generated novel neural - inspired approa ches to improve the resiliency and adaptability of machine learning algorithms. In addition, we have also designed and fabricated hardware architectures and microelectronic devices specifically tuned towards the training and inference operations of neural - inspired algorithms. Finally, our multi - scale simulation framework allows us to assess the impact of microelectronic device properties on algorithm performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predictive Big Data Analytics: A Study of Parkinson’s Disease Using Large, Complex, Heterogeneous, Incongruent, Multi-Source and Incomplete Observations

Background A unique archive of Big Data on Parkinson’s Disease is collected, managed and disseminated by the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). The integration of such complex and heterogeneous Big Data from multiple sources offers unparalleled opportunities to study the early stages of prevalent neurodegenerative processes, track their progression and quickly identify the efficacies of alternative treatments. Many previous human and animal studies have examined the relationship of Parkinson’s disease (PD) risk to trauma, genetics, environment, co-morbidities, or life style. The defining characteristics of Big Data–large size, incongruency, incompleteness, complexity, multiplicity of scales, and heterogeneity of information-generating sources–all pose challenges to the classical techniques for data management, processing, visualization and interpretation. We propose, implement, test and validate complementary model-based and model-free approaches for PD classification and prediction. To explore PD risk using Big Data methodology, we jointly processed complex PPMI imaging, genetics, clinical and demographic data. Methods and Findings Collective representation of the multi-source data facilitates the aggregation and harmonization of complex data elements. This enables joint modeling of the complete data, leading to the development of Big Data analytics, predictive synthesis, and statistical validation. Using heterogeneous PPMI data, we developed a comprehensive protocol for end-to-end data characterization, manipulation, processing, cleaning, analysis and validation. Specifically, we (i) introduce methods for rebalancing imbalanced cohorts, (ii) utilize a wide spectrum of classification methods to generate consistent and powerful phenotypic predictions, and (iii) generate reproducible machine-learning based classification that enables the reporting of model parameters and diagnostic forecasting based on new data. We evaluated several complementary model-based predictive approaches, which failed to generate accurate and reliable diagnostic predictions. However, the results of several machine-learning based classification methods indicated significant power to predict Parkinson’s disease in the PPMI subjects (consistent accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity exceeding 96%, confirmed using statistical n-fold cross-validation). Clinical (e.g., Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) scores), demographic (e.g., age), genetics (e.g., rs34637584, chr12), and derived neuroimaging biomarker (e.g., cerebellum shape index) data all contributed to the predictive analytics and diagnostic forecasting. Conclusions Model-free Big Data machine learning-based classification methods (e.g., adaptive boosting, support vector machines) can outperform model-based techniques in terms of predictive precision and reliability (e.g., forecasting patient diagnosis). We observed that statistical rebalancing of cohort sizes yields better discrimination of group differences, specifically for predictive analytics based on heterogeneous and incomplete PPMI data. UPDRS scores play a critical role in predicting diagnosis, which is expected based on the clinical definition of Parkinson’s disease. Even without longitudinal UPDRS data, however, the accuracy of model-free machine learning based classification is over 80%. The methods, software and protocols developed here are openly shared and can be employed to study other neurodegenerative disorders (e.g., Alzheimer’s, Huntington’s, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis), as well as for other predictive Big Data analytics applications.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Automating the Process of Optimization in Spacecraft Design

Spacecraft design optimization is a difficult problem, due to the complexity of optimization cost surfaces, and human expertise in optimization that is necessary in order to achieve good results. In this paper, we propose the use of a set of generic, metaheuristic optimization algorithms (e.g., generic algorithms, simulated annealing), which is configured for a particular optimization problem by an adaptive problem solver based on artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques. We describe work in progress on OASIS, a system for adaptive problem solving based on these principles.

optimization↗

Development of Machine Learning-Derived Microbiological and Immune Signatures: Applications in Adaptive Risk Assessment of Infectious Disease During Spaceflight

Infectious diseases represent an urgent risk for spaceflight with consequences ranging from loss in crew performance to crew incapacitation or loss of life should an outbreak occur. The resident environmental microbiome on the International Space Station has been monitored through routine surveillance over almost twenty years, beginning with culture-based microbial detection which has advanced to molecular methods in recent years. This has created a wealth of data that we have begun mining to define the microbial ecology of the ISS. Summarized here is our analysis of data from the historical microbial population defined by culture-based monitoring from the past two decades, organized by their likelihood to cause disease into clinical categories. As expected, many residents of the normal microflora in environments where people work and live were detected. However, some known pathogens were also detected. As the spaceflight environment can predispose humans to infection, crew health records were used to source additional data for the set to uncover clinical relevance. Data mining was performed on crew health records to capture adverse health events that may be related to infectious disease. Machine learning, specifically Random Forest analysis, was used to analyze the microbial and crew health datasets. The symptom categories were not explained by the ranked bacteria, due to lack of sufficient data for some categories and due to poor ranking of the pathogens for others. Poor ranking of the bacteria could be due to the clinical symptoms being linked to other disease-causing factors, such as allergy or viral infection. These findings suggest a lack of relationship between bacteria detected on surfaces in the ISS and historical health events experienced by astronauts.

Kristyn Hoffman↗

A variational framework for residual-based adaptivity in neural PDE solvers and operator learning

Residual-based adaptive strategies are widely used in scientific machine learning yet remain largely heuristic. We introduce a variational framework that formalizes these methods through convex transformations of the residual, where different transformations correspond to distinct objective functionals. For instance, exponential weights target uniform error minimization, while linear weights recover quadratic error minimization. This perspective reveals adaptive weighting as a means of selecting sampling distributions that optimize a primal objective, directly linking discretization choices to error metrics. This principled approach yields three key benefits: it enables systematic design of adaptive schemes, reduces discretization error by lowering estimator variance, and enhances learning dynamics by improving gradient signal-to-noise ratio. Extending the framework to operator learning, we demonstrate substantial performance gains across diverse optimizers and architectures. Our results provide a theoretical perspective for residual-based adaptivity and establish a foundation for principled discretization and training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems

Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Adaptive learning-driven high-throughput synthesis of oxygen reduction reaction Fe–N–C electrocatalysts

Reducing human reliance on inefficient energy systems and fossil fuels has become more urgent due to the consequences of global climate change. However, traditional trial-and-error approaches have hampered our ability to accelerate the discovery and implementation of functional materials for efficient energy conversion devices, such as polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFCs). To address this, we develop an adaptive learning framework that integrates machine learning and state-of-the-art capabilities in high-throughput synthesis to achieve expedited optimization of iron-nitrogen-carbon PEFC oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysts. We use statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and global optimization to build a computational design-of-experiment tool that identifies the optimum compositions to be investigated next to reduce the demands placed on experimental materials discovery. We benchmark the ability of the proposed strategy to discover optimum catalyst synthesis conditions in a six-dimensional search space when starting with a thirty-six-sample database. By following the adaptive learning strategy, we synthesize fourteen new catalysts from approximately ten billion unique compositions and discover four catalysts that outperform all original samples. The best machine learning-optimized catalyst is 33% more active than the highest-performing one in the initial database, showing an ORR activity seven times larger than those typically reported for the same class of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗